报告日期：2026 年 3 月 3 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：中东局势动荡，原油系商品继续大涨 当地时间 3 月 2 日深夜，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队司令顾问表示，霍尔木兹海峡已被 关闭，伊方将打击所有试图从霍尔木兹海峡通过的船只。目前伊朗伊斯兰革命卫 队暂未发表官方声明。期市夜盘收盘，国内商品期货主力合约涨跌互现。涨幅方 面，原油、燃料油、甲醇等涨幅居前。跌幅方面，沪锡、沪银、沪镍等跌幅较大。 重点品种：原油、甲醇 原油：SC 夜盘上涨 10.94%。美国和以色列 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动军事打击，伊朗 对以色列予以回击，并用导弹袭击了美国在中东地区的多个军事基地。伊朗宣布 关闭霍尔木兹海峡，并称已对美军基地等目标发动打击。2 月 28 日根据国际油 轮流量监测系统的实时数据显示，位于霍尔木兹海峡周边海域的油轮航行速度已 普遍降至零，显示该地区的航运已陷入停滞状态。当地时间 3 月 1 日，全球最大 的航运公司之一丹麦马士基已暂停通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运。 甲醇：甲醇夜盘上涨 5.47%。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃装置平均开工负荷在 80.88%， 环比持平。本周期内受烯烃装置运行稳定影响，导致国内 CTO/M ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the T2606 contract up 0.12% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields in China generally declined, and overseas key - term treasury bond yields also changed. The escalation of the Middle East situation has a short - term positive impact on the US dollar and the prices of treasury bond futures. The central bank's open - market operations and the policy combination of a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy also affect the market [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of various treasury bond futures contracts rose, with T2606 up 0.12%. The open interest of T2606 increased by 10738, while that of TL2606 decreased by 3208. The trading volume of each contract also showed different trends [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 3.4bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 2.45bp, and GC007 interest rate decreased by 4.8bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term treasury bond yields generally declined, with the 10Y treasury bond yield down 4.3bp to 1.78%. The 10 - 2 year treasury bond yield spread was 34.68bp [2] 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y US treasury bond yield increased by 8bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield decreased by 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 4.5bp [2] 3.4 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 2, the central bank carried out 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 190 billion yuan [3] - **Diplomatic News**: There were diplomatic interactions regarding the Middle East situation, including statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, phone calls between Chinese and foreign ministers, and statements from the US and Iranian leaders [3] 3.5 Industry Information - **Interest Rates**: Most money - market interest rates showed mixed trends. US treasury bond yields rose across the board [3] 3.6 Comment and Strategy - The prices of treasury bond futures were generally supported by factors such as the central bank's open - market operations, the policy combination, and the escalation of the Middle East situation. Attention should be paid to policies to be introduced in the Two Sessions [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The panic caused by geopolitical factors has eased. The A-share market opened lower but rebounded, with the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and Shanghai 50 closing in the green. The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven", and the performance - supported sectors will have sustainable opportunities. In the short term, the risk appetite has declined due to geopolitical disturbances, but in the long term, the stock index trend will return to the domestic fundamentals [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts on the previous day were 4711.20 (current month), 4702.60 (next month), 4665.20 (next quarter), and 4601.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of 3.20, 0.80, - 3.00, and - 7.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 83457.00, 5407.00, 28338.00, and 11606.00, and the open interest changes were 3800.00, 1857.00, 5225.00, and 2166.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts on the previous day were 3045.80 (current month), 3043.80 (next month), 3038.40 (next quarter), and 3003.20 (next - next quarter), with changes of 2.40, - 0.60, - 0.40, and - 0.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 41055.00, 2482.00, 12318.00, and 5279.00, and the open interest changes were 2029.00, 409.00, 2096.00, and 209.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts on the previous day were 8627.00 (current month), 8603.00 (next month), 8502.00 (next quarter), and 8351.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of - 6.00, - 7.20, - 10.00, and - 18.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 105223.00, 8423.00, 48791.00, and 16369.00, and the open interest changes were 4071.00, 2545.00, 3496.00, and 1914.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts on the previous day were 8423.80 (current month), 8380.20 (next month), 8230.60 (next quarter), and 8029.00 (next - next quarter), with changes of - 97.80, - 95.20, - 94.00, and - 94.20 respectively. The trading volumes were 142245.00, 8915.00, 52969.00, and 21847.00, and the open interest changes were 3839.00, 3449.00, 6522.00, and 3851.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM were - 8.60, - 2.00, - 24.00, and - 43.60 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 7.40, 1.60, - 25.20, and - 45.20 [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.38%, the Shanghai 50 index increased by 0.23%, the CSI 500 index remained unchanged, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.98% [1]. - **Industry Performance**: The energy, raw materials, industrial, and telecommunications sectors had positive growth rates of 7.78%, 2.91%, 0.64%, and 2.32% respectively, while the main consumption, pharmaceutical, real - estate finance, and information technology sectors had negative growth rates of - 1.00%, - 1.98%, - 0.30%, and - 1.36% respectively [1]. 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Basis**: The basis of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index on the previous day was - 17.47, - 26.07, - 63.47, and - 127.67 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 3.15, - 4.25, - 37.25, and - 96.05 [1]. - **IH Basis**: The basis of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the Shanghai 50 index on the previous day was - 0.67, - 2.67, - 8.07, and - 43.27 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of 5.97, 7.57, 1.57, and - 34.43 [1]. - **IC Basis**: The basis of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the CSI 500 index on the previous day was - 31.33, - 55.33, - 156.33, and - 307.33 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 13.05, - 38.25, - 133.25, and - 282.25 [1]. - **IM Basis**: The basis of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, next - next quarter) to the CSI 1000 index on the previous day was - 53.17, - 96.77, - 246.37, and - 447.97 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 29.44, - 74.64, - 230.24, and - 431.44 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.20%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.14%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.49% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 2.14%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.04%, and the DAX Index decreased by 2.42% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - **Diplomatic Statements**: China urges all parties to stop military actions in the Middle East. The report about China - Iran missile procurement is untrue. There is no information about Trump's visit to China [2]. - **US - Iran Situation**: The US continues military operations in Iran, which may last 4 - 5 weeks. Iran refuses to negotiate with the US [2]. - **US Tariff Issue**: Over $175 billion of illegal tariffs will enter the refund process [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **Tourism**: The China Travel Service Association calls for ensuring the safety of tourists in the Middle East [2]. - **Aviation**: The ticket prices of China - Europe routes have soared due to flight cancellations [2]. - **Phosphorus Fertilizer**: Industry associations call for stabilizing the phosphorus fertilizer market [2]. - **Smartphones**: Mobile phone prices are expected to rise due to increased chip costs [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran continues to ferment, leading to a significant increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East, which has a wide - ranging impact on the global financial and commodity markets. The market's risk - aversion sentiment is high, and the expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts are adjusted. Different commodities show different trends under the influence of geopolitical factors and their own fundamentals [2][4][6]. According to the Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is intensifying, with continuous air strikes. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, and Iran threatens to attack passing ships. The US manufacturing industry in February continued to expand, but inflationary pressures are rising, and the market's expectations for interest - rate cuts have converged. The US stock market opened lower and closed higher, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.04%, the US dollar index rose to 98.5, oil prices rose by more than 6%, gold prices reached above $5400 and then fell, and copper prices fell by 2% [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened lower and closed higher on Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4182 points, approaching the previous high. Funds flowed into the dividend - paying sectors, and the technology sector performed weakly. The trading volume in the two markets reached 3.05 trillion yuan, a new high since February, and more than 4200 stocks closed down. The short - term upward momentum of the index still exists, and the focus will shift to the economic performance at the beginning of the year and the economic targets and policies of the Two Sessions in early March [3]. Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased, driving gold prices to break through the $5400 mark, but then some funds took profits, and gold prices corrected. COMEX gold futures closed up 1.68% at $5335.90 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures closed down 3.95% at $89.61 per ounce. It is expected that the short - term gold - silver ratio will continue to correct upwards [4][5]. Copper - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts in June has declined, and copper prices have adjusted. The main contract of Shanghai copper weakened, and LME copper adjusted to around $13000. The spot market trading was light, and the inventory increased. Geopolitical factors and inflation concerns led to a reduction in the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The supply of mines was tight, and the inventory accumulation rate in China slowed down. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices continued to be strong with increased volatility. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24465 yuan/ton, up 3.21%. The geopolitical conflict led to an increase in energy costs and inflation expectations, and concerns about the normal production of Iranian aluminum plants supported aluminum prices. However, the inventory in China continued to accumulate, and the downstream consumption recovered slowly [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices fluctuated widely. The main contract of alumina futures closed at 2773 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The long - term closure of the Strait of Hormuz may lead to a shortage of alumina supply in the Middle East and disrupt the overseas supply - demand balance. The domestic alumina price rose due to regional supply imbalance, and the market was in a state of long - short game [10]. Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum prices were strong. The main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 23180 yuan/ton, up 2.66%. Geopolitical factors drove up aluminum prices, and the cost of scrap aluminum increased. The supply capacity recovered after the festival, and the market supply - demand was temporarily balanced, with prices mainly driven by cost and emergencies [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc was supported by geopolitical premiums and was expected to fluctuate at a high level. The main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated strongly during the day and then gave back the gains at night. The European natural gas price soared, increasing the cost of zinc smelters in Europe. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream resumed work slowly. The short - term trend of zinc prices was driven by the geopolitical situation [12][13]. Lead - The lead price center moved up. The main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated with an upward center during the day and traded sideways at night. The supply and demand of lead both increased, and the social inventory showed an inflection point. The lead price was expected to be slightly strong in the short term, but the upside space was limited [14]. Tin - Tin prices were consolidating at a high level. The main contract of Shanghai tin rebounded after reaching the bottom during the day and weakened at night. The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar was expected to accelerate, which alleviated the supply concerns. However, tin has strong strategic attributes, and the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable, limiting the adjustment space of tin prices [15][16]. Steel and Iron - **Screw and Coil**: Steel futures fluctuated. The impact of the US - Iran conflict on the black market was limited. During the Two Sessions, the supply was low, and the post - festival construction industry had tight funds. The inventory continued to accumulate, and it was expected that the steel price would fluctuate and stabilize [17][18]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore futures fluctuated. The overseas shipment increased slightly, and the arrival decreased. The inventory pressure was still large, and the demand recovery was limited. It was expected that the iron ore price would fluctuate and stabilize [19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coal increased, and the downstream demand was limited. The coking enterprises' inventory accumulated, and it was expected that the coking coal and coke prices would fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the improvement of steel mill profits and policy support [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The funds reduced their positions, and the soybean meal futures fluctuated and fell. Market institutions slightly lowered the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, and the domestic soybean inventory increased while the soybean meal inventory decreased. It was expected that the soybean meal futures would fluctuate in the short term [21][22]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices fluctuated and rose. The geopolitical conflict led to a sharp rise in oil prices, which boosted the oil market. The high - frequency data showed that the supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the domestic palm oil inventory increased. It was expected that the palm oil price would fluctuate [23][24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold 2604 is strong in the short - term, oscillating in the medium - term, and strong intraday, with a short - term bullish view due to short - term safe - haven demand pushing up the gold price [1] - Copper 2604 is oscillating in the short - term, strong in the medium - term, and slightly strong intraday, with a long - term bullish view because of the recovery of domestic liquidity and the rise of industrial support [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Intraday view is bullish, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is short - term bullish. The core logic is that the continuous tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation supports the gold price, but the market has partially priced in the US - Iran negotiation issue, so the increase is limited. The rising US dollar index suppresses precious metals, and there is a co - existence of profit - taking and bottom - fishing. Overall, the gold price may continue the slightly strong oscillating pattern in the short - term [3] Copper (CU) - Intraday view is slightly strong, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is long - term bullish. The core logic is that the market's risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the non - ferrous sector was slightly strong yesterday, but copper's performance was average. Global copper inventories are continuously accumulating, suppressing the copper price. The main logic of the copper market lies in its own supply and the expectation of marginal demand. Currently, Shanghai copper has been oscillating in the range of 100,000 - 105,000 for a long time, lacking a clear directional driver in the short - term [4]

Market Overview - Indian share markets are closed on March 3 due to the Holi festival holiday, with trading suspended on both the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) [1] - The Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) will resume trading in the evening session from 5 pm to 11 pm [2] Global Market Trends - Major Asian indices experienced selling pressure, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down by 1.71% to 57,065, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down by 0.24% to 25,985, Taiwan's Weighted Index down by 0.36% to 34,967, and South Korea's KOSPI down by 2.42% [2] - Conversely, Singapore's Straits Times index gained 0.94% [2] Crude Oil Prices - Crude oil prices surged amid geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude increasing by approximately 1% to USD 78.52 per barrel [3] Domestic Market Performance - On March 2, domestic equity benchmarks faced a significant sell-off due to escalating military tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, leading to a global "risk-off" sentiment [4] - The Sensex closed at 80,238.85 points, down 1,048.34 points or 1.29%, while the Nifty ended at 24,865.70 points, down 312.95 points or 1.24% [4] - Market participants are expected to track global cues and crude oil price movements when trading resumes after the holiday [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - For stock index futures, the report maintains a long - term view of being bullish on the economy. It suggests that using stock indices as a long - term substitute can achieve certain excess returns, and recommends allocating various futures contracts on dips. For short - term trading, the stock index futures' trend is unclear, so it's advisable to wait and see. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, and it's recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it's recommended to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts at high prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 2, A - share major indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.2%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.49%, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.56%. The market turnover was 30,458 billion yuan, an increase of 5,403 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, petroleum and petrochemicals (+7.95%), coal (+3.77%), and non - ferrous metals (+3.17%) performed well, while media (-3.98%), computer (-2.88%), and social services (-2.68%) performed poorly. From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IC>IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 1,141, 61, and 4,277 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors' net inflows of funds were - 37.1 billion, - 31.4 billion, 15.4 billion, and 53.1 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 30.9 billion, - 13.1 billion, +14 billion, and +30 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 96.76, 55.33, 26.07, and 2.67 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 8.39%, - 4.7%, - 4.05%, and - 0.64% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 52%, 54%, 27%, and 42% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bullish view on the economy. Currently, using stock indices as a long - term substitute can achieve certain excess returns, and it's recommended to allocate various futures contracts on dips [2] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 2, treasury bond futures strengthened. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.02%, TF rose 0.09%, T rose 0.13%, and TL rose 0.55% [2] - **Cash Bond and Basis**: The current active contract is the 2606 contract. The CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures is 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 0.75bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.018 and an IRR of 1.4%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures is 250014.IB, with a yield change of - 1.75bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.004 and an IRR of 1.48%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures is 250025.IB, with a yield change of - 1.7bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.031 and an IRR of 1.57%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures is 210014.IB, with a yield change of - 2.5bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.059 and an IRR of 1.64% [2] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank injected 19 billion yuan and withdrew 0 billion yuan, with a net injection of 19 billion yuan [2] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trend is unclear, so it's recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, considering the upward risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it's recommended to conduct hedging operations on T and TL contracts at high prices [2] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, and social activities exceeds the same period in previous years, while the prosperity of infrastructure and import - export is similar to the same period in previous years [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the futures market as a crucial financial infrastructure that supports the real economy and ensures stable industrial operations, highlighting the role of Shenwan Hongyuan Futures' "Shenwan Zhiyuan" brand in providing professional services to empower entities and promote sustainable development [2][11]. Group 1: Partnership and Development - Since 2018, Shenwan Hongyuan Futures has partnered with a major listed cable company to enhance its risk management capabilities, transforming it from a learner of hedging concepts to an independent risk management expert [2][11]. - The cable company is a leading supplier in the marine and land cable sector in China, recognized for its technological innovation and quality management, ranking among the top 10 global submarine cable companies and the top 100 listed companies in China [2]. Group 2: Challenges and Solutions - The company's production model is order-based, primarily focusing on wind power submarine cables, with a production cycle of 3 to 6 months, and some orders taking up to a year, posing significant challenges in cost control due to raw material price fluctuations [3]. - Despite the company's willingness to engage in futures hedging, a lack of professional risk management talent has hindered its ability to independently conduct hedging operations, a common issue faced by many large enterprises [3]. Group 3: Training and Capacity Building - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures developed a four-stage training system tailored to the cable company's operational characteristics and hedging needs, covering all levels and positions within the organization [4]. - The first stage focuses on educating senior management and key department personnel about the significance of the futures market in risk management and the legal considerations for state-owned enterprises [5]. - The second stage provides practical training on futures trading rules and risk avoidance, aimed at mid-level managers and department heads [6][7]. - The third stage enhances the capabilities of core personnel in the futures department through specialized training on research and trading skills [8]. - The fourth stage involves training on performance assessment systems related to futures business, integrating it into the overall cost assessment of the company [9]. Group 4: Comprehensive Service and Impact - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures offers a comprehensive service that includes training, implementation, review, and optimization of the hedging process, helping the cable company establish a robust risk management system [10]. - This partnership has significantly improved the company's ability to hedge against raw material price fluctuations, enhancing its operational resilience and profitability stability, thereby supporting its growth in the renewable submarine cable sector [10][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, Shenwan Hongyuan Futures aims to deepen the "Shenwan Zhiyuan" brand by developing four key empowerment pillars: an AI hedging platform, a risk management training platform, a risk management empowerment platform, and a comprehensive financial services platform [12]. - The company remains committed to serving the real economy and facilitating high-quality development through tailored risk management solutions for various industries and enterprises [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is that gold is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias, and silver is expected to fluctuate [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has led to a risk - off sentiment. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices, which may drive up global inflation. Gold, as a safe - haven and anti - inflation asset, shows strong performance, while silver fluctuates sharply. Traders are advised to hold long positions and control risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 1.68% to $5335.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 3.95% to $89.61 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract rose 1.14% to 1184.9 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract fell 3.81% to 22939 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of March 2nd, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 1101.33 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 90.16 tons to 15902.24 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.5%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 97.5%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 16.3%, the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 83.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.4%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 40.3% [1]. - On Monday, the US announced that the February ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, with a market expectation of 51.5 and a previous value of 52.6 [1]. - US President Trump said on March 1st that the military operation against Iran may last about four weeks, and the US and Israel will continue military operations against Iran. The Israeli army chief of staff announced an "offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon". Trump said he would not rule out sending ground troops to Iran. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Larijani refuted the news of resuming US - Iran negotiations, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard said the Strait of Hormuz was closed, while the US Central Command said it was not closed [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - On February 28th, the US and Israel jointly carried out an air strike on Iran, and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was attacked. On March 2nd, the US dollar index strengthened due to the expansion of the Middle - East conflict, and the COMEX gold opened higher and fluctuated widely, while the COMEX silver opened higher and then fell sharply [1][2]. 3.4 Trading Strategy - Long - position holders should continue to hold their positions, and investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2].

2. 从海外市场来看,海外甲醇主要生产原料LNG受霍尔木兹海峡关闭影响显著。中东地区卡塔尔与阿联酋的LNG均需要通过霍尔木兹海峡 出口,而目前物流的阶段性放缓推高欧洲及亚洲气价,进而抬升国际甲醇价格。若霍尔木兹海峡的关闭状态长期维持,其将进一步刺激 欧亚气价上涨。 3. 从国内基本面来看,沿海甲醇港口库存仍在高位,2月27日当周港口库存在144.67万吨,同比高出35%。但若霍尔木兹海峡长期关闭, 进口缺位下中国港口库存短期或有去化。若缺口持续扩大, 货源断供或将影响沿海MTO装置开工,内地企业有望成为主要供应替代。内地 市场则随沿海同步调涨，尤其午后期货封于涨停板,持货商多维持挺价销售,部分企业竞拍溢价成交明显。（甲醇数据来自隆众资讯） 4. 从市场情绪来看,伊朗形势骤变带动能源化工板块多品种集体上行,市场情绪偏向多配。 展望后市,伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书拉里贾尼于当地时间3月2日明确表示"伊朗不会与美国进行谈判",且"已为长期战争做好准 备";美国总统特朗普则于同日表示对伊军事行动"远超预期","一直认为这是一个为期四周的行动"。目前袭击仍在发生,中东局 势需要密切追踪观察。国内甲醇短期持续交易地缘溢价 ...