1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend. Different sectors, such as financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals, have their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in financial derivatives, stock index futures are expected to test 3900 again, while treasury bond futures have opportunities despite fluctuations; in agricultural products, the supply - demand situation of various varieties varies, affecting their price trends [5][20][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to test 3900 again. On Thursday, the market showed a sideways shock. The main stock index futures contracts mostly declined, and the trading volume and positions decreased. The market rebound was affected by factors such as the overnight decline of the US stock market, and it is expected to maintain a sideways consolidation trend [18][20] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There were fluctuations, but opportunities remained. On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, and the market funds were balanced and slightly loose. The central bank's open - market operations and market rumors affected the bond market sentiment. In the short term, the central bank's loose tone remained unchanged, but the long - end repair rhythm might be repeated [22][23][24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The production outlook was good, and US soybeans continued to be under pressure. The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. The US soybean export sales decreased, and the Brazilian soybean production was expected to increase. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit was still in deficit, and the overall price was expected to be supported but with limited sustainability [26][27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar prices dropped sharply. The ICE and London sugar futures prices declined. The Brazilian sugar production increase was basically realized, and the market focus shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar market had increasing supply pressure, but the price had certain support near the cost line [29][30][33] - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Palm oil had a technical rebound, and the overall oils were at the bottom - level shock. The overseas palm oil and soybean oil prices had small fluctuations. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the domestic soybean oil inventory was gradually decreasing, while the rapeseed oil inventory was expected to continue to decline [35][36] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price declined, and the futures price was at the bottom - level shock. The CBOT corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn processing enterprise inventory increased, and the starch inventory also increased. The Northeast corn price was strong, while the North China corn price was weak [37][38][39] - **Hogs**: The slaughter recovered, and the spot price fluctuated slightly. The hog price was stable in most regions. The short - term slaughter pressure decreased, but the overall supply pressure still existed [39][40][41] - **Peanuts**: The spot price declined, and the futures price had a narrow - range shock. The peanut price was stable in some regions and declined in others. The oil factory's purchase price was adjusted, and the 03 peanut futures price still had a downward space [42][43][44] - **Eggs**: The demand was average, and the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The main - producing and main - selling area prices were relatively stable. The number of laying hens decreased slightly, and the short - term supply pressure was relieved [45][46][47] - **Apples**: The demand was average, and the apple price was mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory decreased, and the import and export volume changed. The apple price was high before, which led to weak demand, and the market was concerned about the January delivery and pre - Spring Festival stocking [49][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales were good, and the cotton price was shock - upward. The ICE cotton futures price increased. The domestic cotton import and export volume changed, and the new cotton sales progress was fast. The market was affected by factors such as the expected reduction of cotton planting area and the expansion of textile factory capacity [52][53][54] Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material prices stopped falling and stabilized, and the steel price rebounded from the bottom. The steel product supply decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly. The steel price was affected by factors such as the raw material supply, demand, and export policy, and it was expected to show a shock - upward trend [57][58][59] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices rebounded from the bottom, and the trading logic change needed attention. The Mongolian coking coal market was strong, and the prices of some domestic coking coal increased. The market "anti - involution" sentiment led to the price rebound, and the future supply - demand situation might improve slightly [59][60][61] - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations were repeated, and the ore price was in shock. The domestic crude steel and rebar production decreased, and the iron ore production increased slightly. The global iron ore supply was loose, and the domestic demand was weak. The ore price was expected to have limited upward space [62][63][64] - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the "anti - involution" expectation, the prices rebounded in the short term. The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon prices were stable with a slight increase. The supply was expected to decline slightly, and the demand was under pressure. The cost support and "anti - involution" expectation led to the price rebound [64][65][66] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The US November CPI was better than expected, but the data was questionable, leading to market fluctuations. The international gold and silver prices fluctuated widely, and the US dollar index and US bond yields changed. The market was in a long - short tug - of - war, and the gold and silver prices were expected to maintain a high - level range [67][68][69] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The trading enthusiasm was over - high, and the risk factors were gradually accumulating. The platinum and palladium futures prices increased significantly, and the trading volume expanded. The macro - environment was favorable, and the news boosted the demand outlook. The platinum was short - term bullish, and the palladium might be affected by the macro - environment [69][70][71] - **Copper**: Buy after a full correction. The copper futures prices increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data affected the market, and the copper supply was expected to be tight in 2026. The long - term price trend was upward, but the short - term might be in shock [74][75][76] - **Alumina**: The price was in a weak shock. The alumina futures price declined, and the spot price decreased slightly. The overseas supply negotiation and domestic inventory situation affected the price. The price was expected to be under pressure after the "anti - involution" expectation subsided [78][79][80] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas economic data was released this week, and the aluminum price rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum futures price increased, and the inventory decreased. The overseas economic data was better than expected, and the domestic demand was resilient. The price was supported [83][84][85] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The scrap aluminum supply was still tight, and the alloy price rebounded with the sector. The cast aluminum alloy futures price increased, and the spot price increased. The scrap aluminum supply was tight, and the cost supported the price. The price was expected to maintain a high - level shock [86][87] - **Zinc**: Pay attention to the domestic social inventory today. The zinc futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The overseas zinc inventory increased, and the domestic smelting profit was compressed. The price was under pressure from the external market [88][89][90] - **Lead**: Pay attention to the inventory change. The lead futures price increased, and the spot price decreased slightly. The domestic lead supply and demand decreased, and the inventory became more visible. The price was expected to maintain a range shock [91][92][93] - **Nickel**: The Indonesian policy expectation stimulated the nickel price rebound, but the surplus suppressed the upward space. The LME nickel price increased, and the inventory decreased. The global nickel was in a surplus situation, but the Indonesian policy adjustment stimulated the price rebound. The price was expected to decline after the short - term rebound [93][94][95] - **Stainless Steel**: Followed the nickel price and weakened in shock. The stainless steel inventory decreased, and the terminal demand was in the off - season. The price was affected by the nickel price and demand, and it was expected to be at a low - level shock [96][97][99] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sell on rallies. The industrial silicon was in a state of inventory accumulation. The demand in the first quarter of 2026 was pessimistic, and the price was expected to decline. It was recommended to sell on rallies [99][100] - **Polysilicon**: Realize the profits of long positions and pay attention to risk management. The polysilicon futures trading rules changed. The downstream demand was relatively pessimistic, and the short - term price was expected to be strong. It was recommended to take profits on long positions and buy after a correction [100][101][103] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The inventory reduction was slower than expected, and the lithium price was under pressure to correct. The lithium carbonate price had a short - term correction, and the inventory reduction was slow. The price was expected to be at a high - level, and it was recommended to operate cautiously [104][105] - **Tin**: Pay attention to the November export data from Myanmar. The tin futures price increased, and the inventory increased. The US inflation data was questionable, and the domestic tin supply and demand were weak. The price was expected to be affected by the Myanmar export data and market fluctuations [107][108][109] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: MSK released the price of 2500/2600 for the first week, and pay attention to the January freight rate change path. The spot freight rate increased slightly. The European port congestion was serious, and the demand was expected to improve in December - January. The short - term price was expected to be at a high - level shock, and it was recommended to take partial profits on long positions [110][111][113] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The surplus pressure was difficult to change, and the oil price rebound was limited. The crude oil futures prices increased slightly. The US inflation and employment data changed, and the geopolitical situation was uncertain. The oil price was expected to be in a weak shock in the medium - term [114][115][116] - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand was weak, and the raw material risk remained. The asphalt futures price declined, and the spot price was stable. The terminal demand decreased, and the raw material supply was uncertain. The price was expected to be in a narrow - range shock [117][118][119] - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term low - sulfur supply was continuously increasing. The fuel oil futures prices increased slightly. The low - sulfur supply was expected to increase, and the high - sulfur demand was stable and weak. The short - term price was expected to be bearish [120][121][122] - **Natural Gas**: The LNG downward trend remained unchanged. The natural gas futures prices had different changes. The weather affected the demand, and the overall supply was loose. The HH2602 contract long positions were recommended to be held [124][125][126] - **LPG**: The PDH profit continued to be in deficit. The LPG futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The international LPG market was strong, and the PDH profit was in deficit. It was recommended to short the 03 contract on rallies [127][128][129] - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales volume increased, and the market atmosphere was boosted. The PX and PTA futures prices increased. The PTA supply was expected to increase slowly, and the downstream polyester demand was high. The price was expected to be shock - upward [131][132] - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene supply - demand was loose, and the styrene basis weakened. The pure benzene and styrene futures prices declined slightly. The pure benzene supply increased and demand decreased, and the styrene supply and demand were also weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [134][135][136] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure remained, and the price was in shock. The ethylene glycol futures price increased slightly. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory had a de - stocking pressure. The short - term price was expected to be in shock and weak in the medium - term [138][139] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand was weak. The short - fiber futures price increased. The short - fiber supply and demand decreased, and the processing fee was under pressure. The price was expected to be shock - upward [140][142] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand was relatively loose. The bottle - chip futures price increased. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was relatively stable. The price was expected to be shock - upward [143][144] - **Propylene**: The demand was poor, and the rebound was weak. The propylene futures price increased first and then decreased. The propylene supply was expected to be high, and the demand was weak. The short - term price was expected to be shock - upward [146][147] - **Plastic PP**: The PE production decreased month - on - month, and the PP production increased month - on - month. The L and PP futures prices declined slightly. The PE and PP supply and demand had different changes. It was recommended to wait and see for the L and PP 2605 contracts [148][150][151] - **Caustic Soda**: The price was in a shock trend. The caustic soda spot price had a small adjustment. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be in a weak shock [152][153][154] - **PVC**: The price continued to rebound. The PVC futures price increased, and the spot price increased slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to continue to rebound [155][156][157] - **Soda Ash**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The soda ash futures price increased, and the spot price had a small change. The supply was expected to be under pressure in the future, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [157][158][159] - **Glass**: The futures price was in a strong trend. The glass futures price increased, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to be reduced, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be shock - upward next week with a risk of decline at the end of the month [160][161][163] - **Methanol**: The price rose strongly. The methanol production increased, and the international device operation was affected. The price was expected to be shock - upward [165][166] - **Urea**: The price continued to rise. The urea production decreased slightly, and the international market had an impact. The short - term price was expected to be strong, and the medium - long - term supply - demand was relatively loose [167][168][169] - **Pulp**: The reality was weak, but the expectation was strong. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration and port inventory changes. The pulp futures price declined slightly, and the spot price had a small adjustment. The cost supported the price, but the demand was weak. It was recommended to hold the previous short positions [170][171][173] - **Logs**: The fundamentals were weak, and the futures - spot price was inverted. Pay attention to the warehouse receipt registration. The log price was stable, and the inventory and arrival volume changed. The price was expected to continue to bottom - out. It was recommended to hold the 03 long positions [173][174][175] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The supply pressure remained, and the high pulp price transmission did not meet expectations. The offset printing paper futures price declined slightly, and the spot price was stable. The production and inventory of double - offset paper and coated paper changed. The price was expected to be bearish [179][180] - **Natural Rubber**: The tire production line decreased month - on - month. The natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The Thai government took measures to stabilize the price, and the domestic tire production decreased. It was recommended to short the RU 05 contract slightly and hold the NR 02 contract long positions [182][183] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The BD & BR production decreased marginally, and the tire production decreased month - on - month. The butadiene rubber futures price increased, and the natural rubber futures prices had different changes. The domestic butadiene and tire production decreased. It was recommended to hold the BR 02 contract long positions [186][187][188]

金融研究 2025年12月19日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：12 月 18 日，A 股四大股指多数下跌，其中上证指数上涨 0.16%，报收 3876.37 点；深 成指下跌 1.29%，报收 13053.97 点；创业板指下跌 2.17%，报收 3107.06 点；科创 50 指数下跌 1.46%， 报收 1305.97 点。市场成交 16,768 亿元，较前日减少 1,576 亿元。行业板块方面，银行(+1.97%)， 煤炭(+1.89%)，石油石化(+1.25%)涨幅居前；电力设备(-2.22%)，通信(-1.58%)，电子(-1.51%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IM>IC>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,843/199/2,413。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-113、-179、1、290 亿元，分别变动-160、-64、+147、+77 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 59.4、31.04、21.59 与 9.32 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-10.21%、-5.46%、-5.93%与-3.88%，三年期历 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251219 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 11 月 CPI 弱于预期，国内股市结构分化 海外方面，美国 11 月 CPI、核心 CPI 同比分别降至 2.7%、2.6%，远低于市场预期 31%、 3.0%，并创 2021 年以来新低，但数据可信度存疑，因政府停摆，10 月价格数据大面积缺失， 住房分项异常"停滞"，市场质疑官方隐含假设租金为零，可能低估通胀，需等待后续数据 验证。市场反映积极，CME 利率期货定价美联储明年 3 月、7 月再降息 1 次，美股齐涨，美 元指数收于 98.4，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.12%，金价、铜价震荡走平，油价小幅收涨。欧央 行连续第四次维持利率不变，重申通胀中期回归 2%目标，但未给出明确宽松指引。拉加德 强调政策立场"处于有利位置"，不预设利率路径、保持选项开放，多名官员认为本轮降息 周期或已接近尾声。 国内方面，A 股周四缩量收涨，结构性行情显著，双创板块领跌、红利风格表现占优， 两市超 2800 只个股收涨、成交额回落至 1.68 万亿 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 - Research Institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan - Qualification Number: F3075616 - Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] 2. Key Data - Weekly Production and Changes Silicon Manganese - National weekly production is 18.82 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1015 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.24% [3] - Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 9.62 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 700 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.13% [3] - Ningxia's weekly production is 4.44 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1050 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.19% [3] - Guangxi's weekly production is 0.98 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 525 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.78% [3] - Guizhou's weekly production is 1.24 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 280 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.63% [3] - Yunnan's weekly production is 0.50 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1750 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.84% [3] - Other regions' weekly production is 2.04 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 420 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 24.28% [3] Silicon Iron - National weekly production is 9.98 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6510 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.54% [3] - Inner Mongolia's weekly production is 3.55 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 630 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.70% [3] - Ningxia's weekly production is 2.46 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2590 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.18% [3] - Shaanxi's weekly production is 1.93 million tons, with no week - on - week change and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.23% [3] - Qinghai's weekly production is 1.09 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2030 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.33% [3] - Gansu's weekly production is 0.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 910 tons and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.51% [3] - Other regions' weekly production is 0.01 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 tons and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.00% [3] 3. Data Explanation - The update date of Ganglian terminal data is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week. The data source is Mysteel and is sorted out by Zhongtai Futures [6]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-19 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 煤焦：煤焦上行高度在春节前我们认为更多的是表现为弱反弹，近期价格出现大幅上涨的原 因并不是基于自身基本面，反而是受到消息面的影响居多，就其延续性我们认为相对存疑。 从驱动角度来看，近期市场交易逻辑主要集中在以下几个环节去兑现：其一、临近交割多空 博弈的行情是再度上演；其二、市场再度提及对于煤炭反内卷的题材，年底本身煤矿在完成 全年生产任务之后产量向上修复高度有限，主焦煤的紧缺导致预期和现实再度共振，加大价 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 格的波动弹性；其三、后续进口煤有可能发生偏紧扰动。综上，基于基本面近期所呈现出的 供需双弱的格局，在冬储补库行情驱动较为有限的背景下，我们认为情绪端的影响将更容易 放大价格的波动弹性，前期 15 反套可以考虑陆续止盈离场。 提醒：关注指数最高为★★★★ 相关品种详细研报，见下方。 本期内容提供：研究所 主编： 林小春 2025-12-19 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 11 月核心 CPI 同比创 2021 年以来最低水平，经济学家表示怀疑 观点分享： 周四 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-19 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳。供需端，农膜需 求较稳，旺季结束包装膜需求转弱。当前LL交割品现货价6440（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-36，升贴水比例-0.6%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存52.3万吨（+1.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线 ...

2025年12月19日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：周一贵金属价格继续高位震荡。 金 属 基本面：美国通胀超预期放缓，11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创 2021 年以来最低。美联储主席最热人选哈 塞特称 CPI 报告好得令人震惊，美联储有很大空间可以降息；美国上周首申人数回落至 22.4 万人，扭转此前 激增趋势；英国央行"鹰派"降息 25 个基点，5 比 4 惊险过关，称进一步判断宽松将更艰难；德国上调明年 发债规模至 5120 亿欧元，为基建和国防输血；欧央行连续第四次按兵不动，重申通胀将在中期回归 2%目标， 未释放明确宽松指引。拉加德暗示欧央行不急行动。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存为 1121.8 吨， +2.5 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.7 吨，维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1052.5 吨，维持不变；伦敦 11 月黄金库 存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 14093.8 吨，+7 吨；上期所白银库存为 912 吨，+0.2 吨；金交所 上周库存 714.4，+21 吨，iShares 白银 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 利空： 黄金 1、基本面：美国CPI超预期降温，但数据受到质疑，周五美股三巫日，金价冲高回 落；美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌， 10年期美债收益率跌3.31个基点报4.120%；美元指数涨0.04%报98.44，离岸人民币 对美元小幅贬值报7.0399；COMEX黄金期货跌0.23%报4363.9美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货980.5，现货974.7，基差-5.8，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91716千克，减少6千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期 出口配额企业多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1680 （+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-28，升贴水比例-1.7%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135.7万吨（-3.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，工业需求 ...

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