截至2026年2月3日午盘，上海期货交易所多数有色金属品种延续回调态势。在早盘贵金属剧烈波动之 后，市场整体情绪趋于谨慎，多数品种呈现弱势震荡，但不同金属之间的走势分化明显。其中，沪锡、 沪银大幅下挫，沪铜、沪铝、沪锌、沪镍、沪铅也均有不同程度下跌，仅有个别品种在自身基本面支撑 下呈现韧性。 从午盘收盘数据来看，沪锡2603合约下跌36650元，至374210元/吨，跌幅达8.92%，领跌市场；白银 2604合约下跌5022元，至20728元/吨，跌幅达19.5%，调整幅度最为剧烈。沪铜2603合约收于101470元/ 吨，下跌380元；沪铝2603合约收于23460元/吨，下跌580元；沪镍2603合约收于133550元/吨，下跌 2980元。氧化铝价格相对持稳，与昨结持平。 板块分化加剧，自身基本面成关键定价锚 今日市场的走势，反映出当前金属价格正从前期"情绪与资金推动"的普涨模式，逐步回归至"宏观预期 与产业现实"的博弈阶段。各品种因其自身供需结构的差异，走势开始显著分化。 锡、银为何成为"重灾区"？ 相比之下，铅、锌等品种的库存压力较小，其累库幅度低于前几年，这也部分解释了锌价今日在期货和 现货市场均 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2) Core View of the Report - After the adjustment, the overall risk of the market has basically been released, and investors can gradually build long positions in IC and IH contracts [2] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Fed kept its policy unchanged. Nine government departments launched the "Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival" special event from February 15 - 23, 2026, covering six aspects of consumption [1] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in January rose to 52.6, much higher than the expected 48.5, hitting a new high since August 2022, driven by robust growth in new orders and output [1] - In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.46%. Most sector indexes declined, with only the food and beverage and banking sectors closing higher. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indexes all closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising 1.05% to 49407.66 points [1] - In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures dropped significantly. The trading volume of stock index futures increased, and only the open interest of IM increased simultaneously [1] Strategy - The domestic market gradually digested the impact of overseas liquidity expectation fluctuations. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 were more volatile and affected. After the adjustment, investors can gradually build long positions in IC and IH [2] Macro - economic Charts - Charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [5][7][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance table of domestic major stock indexes shows the closing prices and daily changes on February 2, 2026, and February 1, 2026. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.46%, etc. [11] - Charts include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [5][12] Futures Market Tracking Charts - The table of stock index futures trading volume and open interest shows the trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM on the day and their changes. For example, the trading volume of IF was 191408 with an increase of 12207, and the open interest was 313881 with a decrease of 18763 [13] - Charts include the open interest and open - interest ratio of each contract, and the net open interest of foreign investors in each contract [5][14][16][23][25][28][29] - The table of stock index futures basis shows the basis of each contract (futures - spot) for different delivery months and their changes [36] - The table of stock index futures inter - delivery spreads shows the spreads and their changes between different delivery months for each contract [40][41] - Charts include the basis and inter - delivery spreads of each contract [5][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][37][38][42][45]

贵金属日报 | 2026-02-03 亚太市场"黑色星期一" 贵金属市场巨震 亚太金融市场遭遇"黑色星期一"，美联储政策不确定性引发抛售。韩国综指收盘跌5.26%，印尼综指跌4.88%，盘 中均一度触发熔断。日经225指数跌1.25%。A股、港股三大股指均跌超2%，资源股遭遇重挫，国内期货市场大宗 商品10多个品种跌停。泰国黄金线上期货一度暂停交易。地缘方面，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬下令同美国启动核谈判， 伊朗可能在未来几天同美国举行高规格谈判。消息人士称，预计美国特使威特科夫和伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐将于2 月6日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔会晤，讨论"可能的核协议"。此外，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫确认，将于当地时间 2月4日至5日在阿布扎比进行下一轮乌克兰问题谈判。消息面上，美国总统特朗普计划启动一项战略关键矿产储备 项目"金库计划"（Project Vault），初始资金规模达120亿美元，旨在保护美国制造商免受供应冲击的影响。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-02-02，沪金主力合约开于1140.00元/克，收于1008.60元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-13.16%。当日成交量为 41087手，持仓量为129725手。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market is weak, affecting the prices of soft commodities and fresh - fruit products. Each variety has its own supply - demand fundamentals, which jointly determine their price trends and trading strategies [2][7][9]. - For soft commodities, sugar supply is abundant, paper pulp supply is not tight but demand is in the off - season, and double - offset paper has cost support weakening and demand in the off - season [2][5][6]. - For fresh - fruit products, the supply of apples has support, and the supply of jujubes is moving towards a situation of both supply and demand being strong [9][10]. 3. Summary of Each Section Based on the Table of Contents First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Supply - side support exists, but the overall commodity sentiment is weak recently, and the short - term may show a volatile and repeated trend | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 [19] | | Jujube 2605 | Short - term buy on dips | The expectation of production reduction may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has begun to peak and decline | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 [19] | | Sugar 2605 | Hold short positions | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar supply is in the peak season, with overall sufficient supply | 5070 - 5100 | 5300 - 5350 [19] | | Pulp 2605 | Lightly allocate long positions | Downstream finished paper is in the off - season, and pulp itself lacks new supply - side positive news recently, so the price is under pressure, but the US dollar quotation is stable, and the increase in warehouse receipt cost may support the short - term price | 5200 - 5300 | 5450 - 5500 [19] | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, but the demand has entered the off - season. In the short term, pay attention to the support situation after the disk price further declines and drives the basis to widen | 4000 - 4100 | 4250 - 4300 [19] | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The long - term positive expectation still exists, and the medium - term support remains unchanged. However, the external price is in a bottom - seeking trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. Recently, the overall commodity sentiment is weak, and the short - term price may fluctuate repeatedly | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 [19] | Second Part: Market News Changes Apple Market - **Fundamentals**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 29, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas of China was 601,010 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 313,100 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 610,000 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in the Shandong production area is stable, and the packaging volume of merchants in the cold storage is okay. The price of bagged Fuji in the Shaanxi production area is also stable, and the packaging volume in the cold storage has increased significantly. In the sales area, the market arrival volume is increasing, and the sales of gift - boxed products are okay [20][21][22]. Jujube Market As of January 29, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 13,143 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 925 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.58%, and a year - on - year increase of 23.99%. The pre - Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season for jujubes, but the current sales speed is slower than that of last year, and the pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end [23]. Sugar Market As of January 31, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.35%. Stonex estimated that Brazil's sugar production in the central and southern regions in the 2026/27 crushing season would be 40.7 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons from the previous estimate. As of the week of January 27, the net short position of speculative positions in ICE raw sugar futures + options decreased by 21,040 hands compared with the previous week. India's domestic sugar sales quota in February 2026 was 2.25 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from January [26]. Pulp Market Affected by the decline in futures prices and the weakening demand for key resale varieties, the Chinese pulp market continued to be weak. The price of resold BSK decreased, and the spot quotation of imported NBSK also declined, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [28]. Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Cotton Market As of January 27, the non - commercial net long position of futures + options in the ICE cotton futures market decreased by 13,592 contracts compared with the previous week [30]. Third Part: Market Review Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9380 | - 138 | - 1.45% [31] | | Jujube 2605 | 8820 | - 130 | - 1.45% [31] | | Sugar 2605 | 5207 | - 41 | - 0.78% [31] | | Pulp 2605 | 5266 | - 34 | - 0.64% [31] | | Cotton 2605 | 14575 | - 95 | - 0.65% [31] | Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 [36] | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 [36] | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5330 | 0 | - 580 [36] | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5375 | - 25 | - 1225 [36] | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 [36] | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16070 | - 113 | 1344 [36] | Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1271 | 55 | 1781 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips [57] | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 225 | - 10 | 155 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see [57] | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 15 | 1 | - 148 | Oscillate | Wait and see [57] | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 110 | 30 | 40 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs [57] | Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 [89] | | Jujube | 3317 | 0 | - 699 [89] | | Sugar | 14069 | - 50 | - 10059 [89] | | Pulp | 142447 | 0 | - 196281 [89] | | Cotton | 10325 | 36 | 3612 [89] | Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided in the text, only relevant figure references.

本文字数：1148，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 黄思瑜 2026.02.03 中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青则认为，目前还没有结束回调的信号。"应该还要震荡一段时 间，因为从回调到现在也就三天时间，还在波动过程中。"王彦青称。 相较沪金期货主力合约，沪银期货主力合约仍大幅下跌。对此，王彦青认为，沪银期货主力合约后续跌 幅大概率收窄，高波动不是常态。 程小勇也称，金银波动的特点和驱动不一样，回调的幅度也不一样。理由有三点：首先，去年白银整体 涨幅超过黄金，COMEX白银涨幅逼近130%，而COMEX黄金的涨幅为55.5%，涨幅过快就更容易引发 散户追涨，一旦价格出现调整，更容易引发极端恐慌；其次，黄金和白银上涨的共同驱动来源于货币宽 松下的投资需求，而白银上涨除了实物出现供应缺口之外，其货币属性和避险属性弱于黄金；再次，从 历史经验来看，无论是牛市还是熊市，白银波动率都远超黄金。 在经历大幅下跌后，国际金银价格在2月3日早盘反弹飘红，国内沪金期货主力合约也有所回弹，跌幅收 窄，但是沪银期货主力合约仍旧大幅下跌。 截至发稿，伦敦现货黄金价格从2月2日最低4402.06美元/盎司，回弹至4700美元/ ...

2026.02. 03 本文字数：1148，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 "短期来看，金银已完成60日均线回踩，进一步下探风险明显降低，但考虑隐含波动率仍处于高位，震荡整理或仍是短期主基调。"南华期货贵金属新能 源研究组负责人夏莹莹也称。 中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青则认为，目前还没有结束回调的信号。"应该还要震荡一段时间，因为从回调到现在也就三天时间，还在波动过程 中。"王彦青称。 相较沪金期货主力合约，沪银期货主力合约仍大幅下跌。对此，王彦青认为，沪银期货主力合约后续跌幅大概率收窄，高波动不是常态。 程小勇也称，金银波动的特点和驱动不一样，回调的幅度也不一样。理由有三点：首先，去年白银整体涨幅超过黄金，COMEX白银涨幅逼近130%，而 COMEX黄金的涨幅为55.5%，涨幅过快就更容易引发散户追涨，一旦价格出现调整，更容易引发极端恐慌；其次，黄金和白银上涨的共同驱动来源于货 币宽松下的投资需求，而白银上涨除了实物出现供应缺口之外，其货币属性和避险属性弱于黄金；再次，从历史经验来看，无论是牛市还是熊市，白银 波动率都远超黄金。 "不过，从金银比价来看，上周五和本周一大跌之后，该指标 ...

贺利氏贵金属：近期金价的大起大落中基本面作用很小 FXStreet网站：短期内金价的上涨可能会受到限制 继续关注美伊会谈进展 【机构观点分析】 转自：新华财经 银河期货：金银市场调整是对前期累积风险的释放 中长期来看宏观逻辑并未发生根本性转变 南华期货：金银短期震荡仍是主基调 中长期上涨趋势未改 新湖期货：全球白银ETF流入超1000吨 金银止跌企稳信号初现 南华期货表示，短期来看，金银已完成60日均线回踩，进一步下探风险明显降低，但考虑隐含波动率仍 处于高位，震荡整理或仍是短期主基调。当前金银的阶段性调整并未改变其中长期上涨趋势，反而为中 长期做多投资者提供了优质的补仓机会。 从更长周期来看，全球以美元为主导的信用货币体系信誉持 续走弱，美国财政的不可持续性、美元霸权等核心问题日益凸显，加速了全球去美元化进程。这一趋势 推动全球各国央行持续增持黄金储备，同时引发黄金定价权的争夺与全球黄金市场体系的重构，为金银 中长期上涨奠定了坚实基础。 新湖期货表示，全球主要白银ETF在连续多日流出后，在2日大幅流入超1000吨，接近前期新高，黄金 ETF持仓量保持在高位附近，变动不大。另外，美国劳工统计局表示，由于联邦政 ...

"短期来看，金银已完成60日均线回踩，进一步下探风险明显降低，但考虑隐含波动率仍处于高位，震 荡整理或仍是短期主基调。"南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹也称。 中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青则认为，目前还没有结束回调的信号。"应该还要震荡一段时 间，因为从回调到现在也就三天时间，还在波动过程中。"王彦青称。 【#金银回调要结束了吗#？#分析师称金银短期以震荡为主#】在经历大幅下跌后，国际金银价格在2月3 日早盘反弹飘红，国内沪金期货主力合约也有所回弹，跌幅收窄，但是沪银期货主力合约仍旧大幅下 跌。 截至发稿，伦敦现货黄金价格从2月2日最低4402.06美元/盎司，回弹至4700美元/盎司上方，上涨逾 2%；伦敦现货白银价格涨至82美元/盎司上方，上涨近4%。 从国内期货盘面来看，2月3日早盘，沪金期货主力合约开盘大幅拉升，一度飘红，之后又有所回调，截 至发稿跌幅超1%；沪银期货主力合约在2月2日日盘和夜盘连续跌停之后，3日开盘打开跌停，但是仍重 挫，截至发稿跌幅超19%。 国际金银价格反弹，是否意味着回调将结束，内盘遭受到的"连锁反应"冲击是否也将结束？ 对此，华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇对 ...

2月3日，现货金银日内走高。截至9:30，现货黄金涨至4852.47美元/盎司，日内涨4.15%。 历史罕见！国投白银LOF跌超31% 有人称"两天亏掉一个月利润" 受国际银价大幅波动影响，2月2日，复牌即被牢牢封死跌停板的国投白银LOF成为市场关注焦点。 同日晚间，国投白银LOF最新公告称，鉴于近期白银国际主要市场价格出现显著波动，与上期所白银期货差异较大，国投瑞银经与相关基金托管人协商一 致，决定参考白银期货国际主要市场的价格变动幅度，对基金资产进行合理重估。 受估值方式调整影响，国投白银LOF 2月2日单日净值跌幅达31.5%，创公募基金单日下跌历史纪录。同时，据此计算，目前二级市场价格溢价率达 109.92%。业内人士提醒，投资者不要盲目跟风，理性评估风险与收益，普通投资者不要参与高溢价品种的炒作。 白银价格持续反弹。截至09:34，现货白银涨幅扩大至8%，报85.5美元/盎司；纽约期银日内涨超11%，现报85.60美元/盎司。 黄金开年一路飙升至历史新高，1月30日却骤然遭遇20世纪80年代以来最大跌幅。更糟糕的是，2月2日，现货黄金再次一度暴跌约10%，逼近4400美元/关 口。据智通财经，黄金三 ...

内盘遭受的"连锁反应"冲击，何时结束？ 在经历大幅下跌后，国际金银价格在2月3日早盘反弹飘红，国内沪金期货主力合约也有所回弹，跌幅收 窄，但是沪银期货主力合约仍旧大幅下跌。 截至发稿，伦敦现货黄金价格从2月2日最低4402.06美元/盎司，回弹至4700美元/盎司上方，上涨逾 2%；伦敦现货白银价格涨至82美元/盎司上方，上涨近4%。 从国内期货盘面来看，2月3日早盘，沪金期货主力合约开盘大幅拉升，一度飘红，之后又有所回调，截 至发稿跌幅超1%；沪银期货主力合约在2月2日日盘和夜盘连续跌停之后，3日开盘打开跌停，但是仍重 挫，截至发稿跌幅超19%。 国际金银价格反弹，是否意味着回调将结束，内盘遭受到的"连锁反应"冲击是否也将结束？ 对此，华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇对第一财经表示，金银价格回调差不多了，内盘估计也 很快止跌，后续应该以震荡为主，等待新的利多驱动。 "短期来看，金银已完成60日均线回踩，进一步下探风险明显降低，但考虑隐含波动率仍处于高位，震 荡整理或仍是短期主基调。"南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹也称。 中信建投期货贵金属首席分析师王彦青则认为，目前还没有结束回调的信号。"应该还 ...