1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Iran situation has escalated, affecting global financial markets, with significant impacts on the futures market, energy, and precious metals. Meanwhile, the A - share market is also influenced by geopolitical risks, and the market volatility increases. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [7][8][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On March 3, 2026, compared with March 2, 2026, the prices of most chemical products changed. For example, crude oil rose by 7.408% to 566.90, and fuel oil rose by 7.094% to 3,412.00, while coke fell by 0.999% to 1,635.50 [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **Diplomatic Responses**: China urges all parties to stop military actions to prevent regional turmoil from affecting the global economy. The report also clarifies that the news of China's purchase of supersonic missiles from Iran is untrue [6]. - **US - Iran Situation**: The US continues military operations in Iran, and Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz. High - end financial institutions predict significant impacts on energy prices if the Strait is blocked [7]. - **Market Reactions**: On March 2, the domestic futures market reacted strongly, with 12 varieties' main contracts reaching the daily limit, and multiple exchanges and banks issued risk warnings [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market has both long and short factors. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, with supply pressure and some support from the international market [12]. - **Corn**: The price has broken through the previous high, but there is a risk of a concentrated supply of wet grain in mid - to late March. It is necessary to beware of a pull - back [12]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with support from reduced imports and limitations from sufficient oil - type peanut supply [12]. - **Pork**: The supply is abundant, and the futures market is in a state of seeking a bottom [12]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable to weak, with a near - strong and far - weak pattern, and the basis is large [14]. - **Jujube**: The spot price is temporarily stable, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom [14]. - **Cotton**: In the medium - to long - term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to be tight, but in the short term, it needs to digest the post - holiday increase and verify demand, with a high - level oscillation [14]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals remain in an oversupply pattern, and the near - month contracts may continue to be under pressure [13][14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The terminal demand has not fully recovered, and the short - term fundamentals face pressure, with a low - level weak oscillation [13][14]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price has shown a strong upward trend, but it is necessary to beware of the suppression of high inventory on the upward space [13][14][16]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the upward space of the price is restricted by factors such as the release of stored goods and policies [16]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are oscillating at a high level due to geopolitical risks and expectations of the Fed's interest rate policy [16]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The supply and logistics costs are affected by the Middle East situation, and the short - term focus is on domestic inventory pressure and overseas dollar rebound pressure [16]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not been fundamentally reversed, and it is expected to remain at a low level [16][18]. 3.3.4 Steel and Iron Alloys - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The terminal demand has not fully recovered, and the prices are expected to oscillate within a certain range. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the prices of ferroalloys are rising. The short - term idea is to be bullish on pull - backs [18]. 3.3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The long - term supply gap is expected to widen, but in the short term, it faces supply growth and capital sentiment fluctuations, with a high - level oscillation [18]. 3.3.6 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 2, the A - share market had mixed performance, and the volatility of the stock index futures and options markets increased. Trend investors can focus on arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can buy straddles when the volatility drops significantly [18][19]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is affected by overseas geopolitical risks, and the short - term volatility may increase. The medium - term trend is determined by policy, price signals, and industrial trends. Low - buying and rolling operations are recommended [20][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific trading suggestions for various futures products [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides trading strategies and market analysis for multiple futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It takes into account factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1][6][8] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Mid - to long - term optimistic, buy on dips. Before the Two Sessions, it may oscillate. Influenced by geopolitical events and economic data [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Oscillate. Policy signals are clear, and the game between the equity and bond markets may intensify. Geopolitical disturbances may lead to a decline in risk appetite, and treasury bonds may oscillate strongly [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but trading is weak, and downstream demand recovery is slow [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is low in valuation and has weak driving forces. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the post - festival demand recovery [9] - **Glass**: Short May and long September. The market is weak in the short term, with increased inventory and weak demand. There is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation [10][11] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range trading, focus on 98000 - 106000 yuan/ton. The price has moved up after the festival, but inventory has increased, and demand is limited. Geopolitical events may push up the price, but the upward momentum may be insufficient [13][14] - **Aluminum**: Strengthen observation. The supply expectation is improving, but inventory pressure is large. The market trading logic remains unchanged, and the price is pushed up by the Middle East situation, but the sustainability is limited [16] - **Nickel**: Buy moderately on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. It is expected to run strongly [17][18] - **Tin**: Range trading. The supply of tin ore is tight, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [19] - **Gold and Silver**: Oscillate strongly. Geopolitical events increase risk - aversion sentiment, and the US economic data is weak. The central price is expected to move up, and it is recommended to buy on dips after a full correction [20][21][22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range oscillation. Supply disturbances exist, and the demand is strong. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [23][24] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Range trading. The cost is low, supply is high, and domestic demand is weak. Exports are expected to maintain a high growth rate. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to policies and cost changes [25] - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate at a low level. Demand support is weak, and there is inventory pressure. Spring maintenance and downstream replenishment may support the price, and it is expected to oscillate [27] - **Styrene**: Buy on dips but do not chase highs. The price is supported by cost due to geopolitical events. There is inventory pressure in March, and attention should be paid to new orders [28] - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate strongly. Geopolitical conflicts strengthen cost support. Supply is high, and inventory is increasing. Downstream demand is expected to pick up, and it is expected to run strongly [29] - **Rubber**: Buy on dips but do not chase highs. It oscillates strongly under the game of cost support and inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to inventory, demand, and market sentiment [30] - **Urea**: Range trading. Supply is increasing, and demand is also increasing. The price is expected to run strongly in March and may be under pressure later. Attention should be paid to the Iran situation [31][33] - **Methanol**: Range trading. The war in Iran may cause a supply gap. Domestic supply and demand are relatively stable, and inventory is at a certain level. It is expected to run strongly [34][35] - **Soda Ash**: Short on rallies. Supply is high, inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to spring maintenance [36] Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate strongly. The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing, and domestic consumption is expected to pick up after the festival. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [37] - **Apples**: Oscillate strongly. The trading is stable, and the price is relatively stable. The sales in the distribution area are okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [39] - **Red Dates**: Oscillate. The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the market is relatively stable [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: Be cautious about shorting the May contract, and short on rallies. In the short term, the price is oscillating at the bottom due to oversupply and seasonal factors. In the long term, the supply may tighten, but the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to capacity reduction [41][42] - **Eggs**: If the culling does not accelerate, short on rallies for near - month contracts. The egg price is stable, and the supply is normal but the demand has not fully recovered. The market will be in a bottom - grinding stage, and attention should be paid to culling and demand [42] - **Corn**: Oscillate strongly. The short - term basis is high, and it is recommended to operate in the range. The supply - demand game is intense in the short term, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose in the long term. Attention should be paid to weather and sales rhythm [43] - **Soybean Meal**: Short on rallies. The US soybean price is affected by multiple factors, and the domestic supply - demand is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to soybean arrivals and auctions [44][45] - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillate strongly. Oils and fats follow the international crude oil to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to buy soybean and palm oils on dips. Different oils have different supply - demand situations [45][50]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-03燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 燃料油： 1、基本面：在美以对伊朗发动袭击引发更广泛的中东地缘担忧之后，受短期内潜在供应中断的预期提振，亚洲低硫和 高硫燃料油市场结构均表现走强；多位市场消息人士表示，近期供应充足和下游船燃需求疲软，亚洲高硫燃料油市场近 几个交易日承压。但持续的地缘政治冲突导致的中东原油供应中断风险，可能会在未来为燃料油市场提供支撑；偏多 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油498.51美元/吨，基差为337元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为561.09美元/吨，基差为198元/吨， 现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油2月25日当周库存为2387.9万桶，减少277万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方，20日线偏上；偏多 5、主力持仓： ...

2026年03月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：地缘影响下，成本推涨 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑偏强 | 2 | | MEG：单边趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260303 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：偏强运行 | 7 | | LLDPE：原油风险加剧，上游供应或有收缩 | 9 | | PP：C3原料持续偏强，PDH装置减量延续 | 9 | | 烧碱：宽幅震荡 | 11 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260303 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：偏强运行 | 15 | | 尿素：短期步入震荡格局 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强 | 21 | | 丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，基本面维持偏紧 | 21 | | PVC：区间震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：强势延续，价格中枢来到近年高点 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：大幅上涨，外盘现货高低硫价差持续收缩 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：继续关注短线上行风险 | 26 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Amid the US-Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - The economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs to be observed, and domestic demand still awaits the stabilization of residents' income and policy support. The US-Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [10]. - In the medium term, the implementation of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction policy will gradually raise the price center of nickel ore, and nickel prices are expected to slowly rise in a volatile manner. In the short term, the contradiction between spot supply and demand is limited, and inventories continue to increase slightly. It is recommended to buy low and sell high [19]. - In the long - term, the upward trend of commodities is expected to continue, but in the short term, the market may continue the cycle of volatility and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains weak among all commodities and is likely to be short - allocated in the short term [38][44]. - The supply of the float glass market remains stable, while the demand is weak. The industry inventory has risen significantly, and the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. The spot market of soda ash is still full of wait - and - see sentiment, and the market is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile pattern [40][41]. - The prices of rubber RU and NR are expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the strong trend of the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [55]. - The current oil price has already priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap caused by Iran's supply disruption still exists. It is recommended to adopt a mid - term layout strategy but wait for the end of the geopolitical conflict to eliminate tail - risks [57]. - The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main idea is to buy on dips in the medium - term [59]. - The current situation of the domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and combined with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook for urea is bearish, so it is advisable to short - allocate [61]. - After the Saudi refinery closure and the attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East shows no sign of cooling. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward repair space of the valuation is narrowing. It is necessary to wait for the profit to fall to a low level before considering long - positions [63]. - The comprehensive profit of PVC enterprises is at a neutral level, but the supply reduction is small, and the demand is under pressure. The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor [65]. - The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory accumulation pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term. In the short term, due to the tense situation in Iran, there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage and inventory reduction. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [68]. - As the expectation of PTA maintenance decreases, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The processing fee of PTA has fallen back, and there is room for the valuation to rise in the medium - term. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following PX and crude oil [70]. - The PX load remains high, and the overall load of downstream PTA is relatively low, resulting in a short - term inventory accumulation pattern. In March, as PX enters the maintenance season and PTA plants restart unexpectedly, PX will gradually enter the inventory - reduction cycle. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [72]. - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the spot price of polyethylene has risen. The downward space for PE valuation still exists, and the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to pick up seasonally, and the overall start - up rate is expected to bottom out and rebound [74]. - The cost of polypropylene is expected to increase moderately in the second quarter, and the supply pressure will be relieved. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded seasonally, and the long - term contradiction has shifted from the cost - dominated downward trend to the production mismatch. It is advisable to buy on dips for the PP5 - 9 spread [76]. - After the Spring Festival, the slaughter scale of pigs is large, and the average trading weight is high, indicating limited inventory clearance. The short - term rebound of the spot price is limited, and it is advisable to maintain a bearish attitude towards the near - term contract. The far - term contract is supported by capacity reduction and seasonal factors, but the upside space is also limited [79]. - The inventory of laying hens is large, but the egg price after the Spring Festival is higher than expected, and the inventory has not significantly accumulated. However, the increase in stocking behaviors may weaken the medium - term upward potential of egg prices, and it is necessary to pay attention to the valuation pressure on the far - term contract [81]. - Due to the market rumor of extended customs clearance for South American soybeans, the soybean meal price has risen significantly. The export sales of US soybeans have improved, and the import cost has increased. The protein meal price may be bottoming out [84]. - Affected by the weekend geopolitical crisis, the short - term rise in crude oil prices has driven up the prices of edible oils. The inventory of vegetable oils in China and India at the end of January has further decreased, but the decline in Malaysia's exports in February has weakened the oil prices. It is advisable to wait for the oil prices to stabilize at a low level and then consider buying [86]. - The decline in India's sugar production in the first half of February and the increase in Thailand's production offset each other. The raw sugar price has fallen to a historical low and is continuously at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. There is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio in the new Brazilian sugar - cane season after April. Domestically, the pressure of increased production has been alleviated, and there may be a rebound. It is advisable to participate in long - positions in small amounts on dips [89]. - After the Spring Festival, the Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased positions and prices significantly, speculating in advance on the peak season in March. It is necessary to focus on the downstream start - up situation in March. If it is favorable, there is still room for the Zhengzhou cotton price to rise. It is advisable to buy on dips [91]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The National Large - scale Fund has made its first investment in embodied intelligence, and Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing of 2.5 billion yuan; the European natural gas price has risen by 42%, reaching the largest increase since March 2022, and Qatar Energy Company will stop the production of liquefied natural gas; MiniMax's total revenue in 2025 reached 79.038 million US dollars, with 73% of the revenue coming from the international market, and the gross profit margin increased to 25.4%, exceeding market expectations; Deutsche Telekom has cooperated with Starlink to expand the mobile network coverage [2]. - **Strategy View**: Amid the US - Iran conflict affecting global risk appetite and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is advisable to focus on the policy signals of the domestic Two Sessions and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS were 112.740, 108.530, 106.080, and 102.464 respectively, with month - on - month changes of 0.60%, 0.12%, 0.07%, and 0.01%. Three Anglo - American oil tankers were attacked in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz; the final value of France's manufacturing PMI in February was 50.1, higher than the expected 49.9; the VIX index rose to 25.24 points on March 2, reaching the highest level since November last year. The central bank conducted 1.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net investment of 1.9 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy View**: Due to the Spring Festival misalignment, the year - on - year CPI in January was lower than expected, while the PPI improved both year - on - year and month - on - month. The potential suppression of inflation on the bond market still exists. The financial data in January showed that the endogenous driving force for economic recovery was still unstable, and the credit at the beginning of the year was weak. The US - Iran geopolitical conflict has intensified, and short - term market risk - aversion sentiment is favorable for the upward movement of the bond market, but the intensity and duration of the conflict need to be further observed. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.14% to 1,184.90 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 22,939.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 1.80% to 5,342.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 3.83% to 89.72 US dollars/ounce; the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.05%, and the US dollar index was 98.55. After the US - Israel joint military strike on Iran, the situation has continued to escalate, increasing the tail - risk in the Middle East. The demand for safe - haven assets has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. The US ISM - PMI data in February 2026 was 52.4, higher than market expectations, and the overall was still in the expansion range. The price index has risen significantly, while the employment market is still weak [9]. - **Strategy View**: After the US - Israel joint military strike, the Middle East situation has continued to escalate, and the tail - risk has significantly increased. Precious metals are driven by risk - aversion sentiment in the short term. With Trump's statement and the scale of the conflict target, there is great uncertainty about the duration of the Middle East tension, and prices are likely to return to high - level fluctuations. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term, with the reference operating range of the Shanghai gold main contract being 1,150 - 1,200 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver main contract being 22,000 - 25,000 yuan/kilogram [10]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of gold and crude oil have risen, while copper prices have risen and then fallen. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 1.59% to 13,084 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,280 yuan/ton. The LME inventory increased by 3,975 tons to 257,675 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 28,000 tons. The spot discount of copper in the East China region has narrowed, while that in the Guangdong region has widened. The domestic copper spot import loss is about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has slightly narrowed [12]. - **Strategy View**: Under the influence of the geopolitical situation, although risk appetite has been affected, the key mineral resource attribute of copper has been strengthened, and there is a risk of supply interruption, so copper prices still have strong support. The increase in crude oil prices has reduced the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the short term. Domestically, with the arrival of the Two Sessions and the release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for the real estate market, there is support in terms of sentiment. The TC of the copper industry is running at a low level, and the supply of copper ore is still tight. As the downstream start - up rate further increases, the global copper inventory accumulation is expected to slow down. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper contract is 12,950 - 13,300 US dollars/ton [14]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The tense situation in the Middle East has increased concerns about supply, driving up aluminum prices. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.38% to 3,185 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,195 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 29,000 tons to 693,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 295,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by more than 70,000 tons compared with last Thursday, and the processing fee of aluminum rods rebounded. The LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 464,000 tons [15]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has increased to a high level, but with the resumption of work and production in the downstream, the inventory is expected to peak earlier than in previous years. The US - Israel military action against Iran has increased the risk of aluminum supply in the Middle East, and the electrolytic aluminum plant in Mozambique under South32 is still expected to be shut down for maintenance in March. Coupled with the high spot premium of aluminum in North America and the relatively low LME inventory, aluminum prices are expected to be strong in the short term. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 24,000 - 24,600 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum contract is 3,140 - 3,240 US dollars/ton [16]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.60% to 24,874 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 189,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S zinc price fell 24.5 US dollars to 3,355.5 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 226,400 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,370 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 70,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 97,400 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets increased by 31,600 tons to 211,900 tons on March 2 [17]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the domestic TC of zinc concentrate has increased slightly, and the smelting profit has improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots have both increased significantly, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The actual impact of the conflict in Iran on zinc ore supply is relatively small, but market concerns about trade disruptions and energy price increases may briefly push up zinc prices from the sentiment side [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.28% to 16,893 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 112,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, the LME 3S lead price fell 8.5 US dollars to 1,978 US dollars/ton, and the total position was 171,200 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingots in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 54,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 286,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets decreased by 1,900 tons to 67,100 tons on March 2 [18]. - **Strategy View**: In the industry, the lead ore inventory has increased slightly, the TC of lead concentrate has increased slightly, and the inventory of recycled raw materials has decreased marginally. The start - up rate of smelters has declined, and the start -

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 3, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The conflict between the US and Iran continues to intensify, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment boosts the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors. Although Shanghai zinc is suppressed by high inventory and weak demand, it is expected to follow the sector in a strong and volatile trend driven by geopolitical sentiment [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2603, the opening price was 24,450 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,780 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,800 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,380 yuan/ton, the increase was 265 yuan, the increase rate was 1.08%, the position was 10,410 lots, and the position change was - 2,489 lots. For SHFE zinc 2604, the opening price was 24,540 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,850 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,880 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,405 yuan/ton, the increase was 275 yuan, the increase rate was 1.12%, the position was 95,630 lots, and the position increased by 756 lots. For SHFE zinc 2605, the opening price was 24,695 yuan/ton, the closing price was 24,900 yuan/ton, the highest was 24,930 yuan/ton, the lowest was 24,470 yuan/ton, the increase was 270 yuan, the increase rate was 1.10%, the position was 62,020 lots, and the position increased by 4,405 lots [7] - **Market Situation Analysis**: The breakdown of negotiations and the attack by the US and Israel on Iran, along with the new Iranian leadership's refusal to negotiate with the US, have increased the risk of the Middle - East conflict expanding. The market's risk - aversion sentiment has risen, and zinc prices turned positive in the afternoon. The main contract 2604 closed at 24,850 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan with a 1.12% increase. Although the direct impact on zinc is limited (Iran's annual zinc ore output is about 257,000 tons, and China's zinc concentrate imports from Iran are 86,000 tons, accounting for 1.62% of the total imports), the expectation of supply disruption still supports the already tight zinc ore market sentiment. Domestic consumption has not recovered, and the social inventory increased by 34,700 tons to 254,600 tons on Monday. High inventory and weak demand are suppressing the market. The spot premium remains at a low level [7] 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transaction Prices on March 2, 2026**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 24,365 - 24,620 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan was traded between 24,465 - 24,710 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 24,295 - 24,550 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton for the next - month ticket based on the SMM average price, and there was no offer against the market [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 24,385 - 24,620 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo offered a discount of 50 yuan/ton against the 2604 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton against the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in Ningbo was to quote against the 2604 contract [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The 0 zinc ingot was mainly traded between 24,360 - 24,670 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded between 24,400 - 24,670 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingot was traded around 24,310 - 24,560 yuan/ton. Zijin offered a premium or discount of 0 - 30 yuan/ton against the 2604 contract, and Huxin was priced at 25,070 yuan/ton. The 0 zinc ingot offered a discount of 0 - 70 yuan/ton against the 2604 contract. The Tianjin market was at a discount of about 20 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market, and it was a new - month quotation today [8] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream 0 zinc was traded between 24,330 - 24,575 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands offered a discount of 125 yuan/ton against the 2604 contract, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. Today, the holders offered a discount of 125 - 105 yuan/ton for Qilin, Feilong, and Lanxin [8] 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [10][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to strengthen today. The escalation of the situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. Although there are issues such as supply exceeding demand and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is at a neutral level [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. On the supply - demand side, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are relatively slow, and the packaging film has low - load rigid demand operation, expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector has started production one after another. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6720 (+220), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 271, and the premium - discount ratio is - 3.9%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is reduced, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract's disk followed the daily limit, and it is expected to continue to strengthen. The situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise in crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is that supply exceeds demand, and the marginal changes in supply and demand are sensitive [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. On the supply - demand side, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable. The demand in the north is recovering relatively fast but with limited growth. The BOPP sector has resumed work quickly but faces pressure from some finished - product inventories due to fierce competition. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6750 (+170), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 248, and the premium - discount ratio is - 3.5%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increased, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract's disk followed the daily limit, and it is expected to continue to strengthen. The situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise in crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is that supply exceeds demand, and the marginal changes in supply and demand are sensitive [8]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6720, up 220; the price of the 05 contract is 6991, up 394; the basis is - 271, down 174; the warehouse receipt is 9343, down 85; the comprehensive PE factory warehouse is 62.7, and the social inventory is 67.3 [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6750, up 170; the price of the 05 contract is 6998, up 387; the basis is - 248, down 217; the warehouse receipt is 21531; the comprehensive PP factory warehouse is 74, and the social inventory is 39.2 [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, capacity, production, and net imports have changed. The import dependence has generally decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed, with a consumption growth rate of 1.4% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, capacity, production, and net imports have changed. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed, with a consumption growth rate of 8.4% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core View of the Report - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are diverging, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. In the US, consumer confidence rebounded in February, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Geopolitical risks pushed up energy and safe - haven premiums. [6] - In China, policy coordination is strengthening, high - frequency consumption is warming, and the real estate market is showing marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active. The real estate market is still at a low level, and the support from infrastructure construction for the black chain is limited. [6] - Asset allocation should focus on structure. If the war does not expand and energy production and transportation are not affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages. Otherwise, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are over - allocated, bonds are neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black sector is under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission of oil prices. [6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: In February, US consumer confidence rebounded, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Geopolitical risks related to policy discussions and the Middle East situation pushed up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation is "growth not stalling, with rising policy and geopolitical risks". [6] - **Domestic Macro**: In February, fiscal and monetary injections were higher than seasonal, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active. The real estate market is still at a low level, and the support from infrastructure construction for the black chain is limited. [6] - **Asset View**: Asset allocation should focus on structure. If the war does not expand, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles have relative advantages. Otherwise, risk assets will be under pressure, while precious metals and energy will see an increase in safe - haven premiums. [6] 2. Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: Entering the position adjustment observation period, with concerns about AI easing. Pay attention to incremental funds and AI enterprise credit risks, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Stock Index Options**: The option market is trading for medium - to long - term slow growth. Pay attention to option market liquidity, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Institutions are cautious before the Two Sessions, and the bond market has declined. Pay attention to the implementation of monetary policy, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] 3. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, pushing up the safe - haven premium of gold. Pay attention to US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Silver**: The safe - haven premium has pushed up precious metals, and the shortage of silver in the spot market continues. Pay attention to US fundamental data, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 4. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Geopolitical tensions are high, and there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market. Pay attention to geopolitical events, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East situation, and the opening of the spot market, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 5. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: After the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak, and the upward momentum of the market is limited. Pay attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments remain high, and arrivals have decreased slightly. Pay attention to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather factors, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Coke**: Coke enterprises' shipments are accelerating, and inventory pressure is acceptable. Pay attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and downstream replenishment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Coking Coal**: Production has basically recovered, and the market is fluctuating widely. Pay attention to coal mine复产, Mongolian coal imports, and downstream replenishment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Silicon Iron**: The enthusiasm for long positions remains high, and the market continues to be strong. Pay attention to changes in raw material costs and fluctuations in factory start - up rates, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Manganese Silicon**: Costs are strong, and the market continues to rise. Pay attention to manganese ore price adjustments and factory production control trends, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [7] - **Glass**: There is an expectation of increased supply, and prices are fluctuating downward. Pay attention to spot sales, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Soda Ash**: Inventories have been accumulating after the Spring Festival, and prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to soda ash inventories, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] 6. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and copper prices are at a high level. Pay attention to supply disruptions, domestic policy stimulus, Fed policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Alumina**: The expectation of production cuts is in a game with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to disturbances in Guinea, domestic ore policies, and alumina factory production cuts, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased supply concerns, and aluminum prices are rising. Pay attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand shortfalls, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Zinc**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to high - level fluctuations in zinc prices. Pay attention to macro risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Lead**: Geopolitical conflicts have disrupted the market, and lead prices are fluctuating. Pay attention to supply disruptions and rapid weakening of demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Nickel**: High inventory levels are suppressing the market, and the market is fluctuating. Pay attention to unexpected changes in macro and geopolitical situations, Indonesian policies, and unexpected shortfalls in supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are strong, and the stainless - steel market is rising. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and unexpected increases in demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Tin**: Supply concerns remain, and tin prices are strongly supported. Pay attention to unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery and unexpected increases in supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply has increased, and silicon prices are under pressure. Pay attention to unexpected production cuts on the supply side, policy changes, and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Polysilicon**: Inventories are continuously accumulating, and polysilicon is temporarily under pressure. Pay attention to policy changes, unexpected production cuts on the supply side, and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [7] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Concerns about demand expectations have led to a correction in lithium carbonate prices. Pay attention to unexpected increases in demand, supply disruptions, and fluctuations in macro sentiment, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Platinum**: Geopolitical risks have rapidly increased, and platinum price fluctuations may significantly intensify. Pay attention to unexpected increases in production in major producing areas and unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] - **Palladium**: The spot market is continuously in short supply, and prices are strongly supported. Pay attention to unexpected increases in production in major producing areas and unexpected shortfalls in demand recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [7] 7. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations dominate oil prices, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets is widening. Pay attention to OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **LPG**: Geopolitical situations dominate the rhythm, and import costs are rising. Pay attention to crude oil prices, refinery start - up rates, and PDH demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium of asphalt is being released. Pay attention to sanctions and supply disruptions, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has increased significantly due to the US - Iran conflict. Pay attention to geopolitics and crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has risen sharply following crude oil. Pay attention to crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitical situations, methanol is volatile and bullish. Pay attention to macro - energy, the Middle East situation, and actual overseas production stoppages, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Urea**: There is both demand support and policy guidance, and urea is fluctuating and consolidating. Pay attention to coal market conditions, downstream replenishment rhythms, and commercial storage and release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The futures price has reached the daily limit, and the short - term price is strong due to the resonance of cost and supply - demand. Pay attention to coal and oil price fluctuations, port arrival rhythms, the Iranian geopolitical situation, and Strait of Hormuz passage, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PX**: Geopolitical situations have pushed up chemical product prices. Under the situation of reduced supply and increased demand, PX profitability remains strong. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, unexpected shortfalls in downstream polyester resumption, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PTA**: Market sentiment has been further fermented by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the spot profit of PX has been significantly compressed. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, unexpected shortfalls in downstream polyester resumption, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Short - Fiber**: Cost support is significant, and the spot market is relatively slow. Wait for downstream transmission. Pay attention to the purchasing rhythm of downstream spinning mills, demand changes around the Spring Festival, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Bottle Chip**: Crude oil and upstream raw materials have strengthened significantly, driving the downstream trading atmosphere to warm up. Pay attention to the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production reduction targets, shipping costs, and the Iranian geopolitical situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Propylene**: The raw material end has provided significant support, and PL has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PP**: The raw material end, including crude oil, methanol, and propane, has provided support, and PP has strengthened significantly. Pay attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Plastic**: The raw material end has provided support, and plastic prices have strengthened. Pay attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - situations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Styrene**: Affected by crude oil price fluctuations, styrene is volatile and bullish. Pay attention to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **PVC**: Geopolitical disturbances continue, and PVC should be viewed with caution. Pay attention to expectations, costs, and supply, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda should be put on hold for the time being. Pay attention to market sentiment, start - up rates, and demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Fats and Oils**: Crude oil prices have skyrocketed, and fats and oils are volatile and bullish. Pay attention to rapeseed trade, biodiesel, Malaysian palm oil production and demand, and South American weather, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Protein Meal**: The two types of meal have short - term technical adjustment pressure. Pay attention to US soybean planting areas, customs policies, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Corn**: Market sentiment has heated up, and both futures and spot prices are rising. Pay attention to demand, the macro - situation, and weather, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Pig**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and pig prices are falling. Pay attention to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bearish. [9] 8. Agriculture - **Natural Rubber**: It has risen following market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the previous high - level pressure. Pay attention to production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - level changes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The entire sector has risen significantly, driving synthetic rubber prices up. Pay attention to significant crude oil price fluctuations, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Cotton**: It has entered a correction phase. Pay attention to production and demand, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish. [9] - **Sugar**: Sugar prices may rebound slightly in the short term, but the medium - to long - term expectation is volatile and bearish. Pay attention to lower - than - expected production in the Northern Hemisphere, macro - economic fluctuations, geopolitical risks, and crude oil prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Pulp**: The spot market is not strong, and pulp futures are bearish. Pay attention to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Double - Glued Paper**: Demand has not started after the Spring Festival, and double - glued paper is fluctuating. Pay attention to production and sales, education policies, and paper mill start - up dynamics, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9] - **Log**: Trading is light, and prices are fluctuating within a narrow range. Pay attention to shipment volumes and shipping volumes, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-3-3 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，有回升预期。复合肥开 工回升、三聚氰胺开工下降。农业需求逐步转入旺季，综合库存有所累库。外盘价格受地缘因素 等影响继续上升，出口内外价差拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素 指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前 交割品现货1860（+30），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差43，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135万吨（+15.4）， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, the Middle - East situation continues to escalate, the US dollar rebounds significantly, and the gold price rises first and then falls. Although the Middle - East situation is tense, the risk - aversion sentiment cannot continuously drive up the gold price, and the rebound of the US dollar suppresses the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold expands to 5.6 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, due to the outbreak of the Israel - Iran conflict and the significant rebound of the US dollar, the silver price quickly drops and gives back all the previous day's gains. The risk - aversion sentiment cannot continuously drive up the silver price, but the upward trend of the silver price remains unchanged, and the premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 2,750 yuan/kg [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: US stocks' three major indexes closed with mixed results, European stocks' three major indexes all closed down, US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 9.14 basis points to 4.036%), the US dollar index rose 0.93% to 98.55, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 6.9012, and COMEX gold futures rose 1.68% to $5,335.90 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock and bond market performance, COMEX silver futures fell 3.95% to $89.61 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of gold futures warrants is 105,060 kg and remains unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is upward and the k - line is above it, the main net long position increases [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 640 (spot at a discount to futures), the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants increases by 2,840 kg to 309,436 kg, the 20 - day moving average is downward and the k - line is below it, the main net long position decreases [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda; UK Office for Budget Responsibility releases spring forecasts, and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves gives a budget update speech in Parliament; German Chancellor Merz will visit the US to meet with US President Trump. - 07:30: Japan's January unemployment rate. - All - day: Thailand, India, and Israel are on holiday. - 08:30: South Korea's February manufacturing PMI. - 18:00: Eurozone's February CPI flash estimate. - 22:55: New York Fed President John Williams gives a keynote speech at an event. - 23:30: ECB Governing Council member Kocher speaks. - 23:40: Dutch Central Bank President Olaf Sleijpen speaks. - Next day 00:45: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (2026 FOMC voter) speaks [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing, and there is still support at the macro - level. The regulatory pressure still exists, and the weakness of US technology stocks makes it difficult to restore the sentiment of the silver price [9][12]. - **Silver**: Positive factors include global turmoil, tense US - Iran relations, the possibility of a new Fed chairman being determined with an increasing expectation of easing, the significant decline of the US dollar, the resurgence of Trump's tariff issue, the support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors, and low spot inventory with a hot supply - shortage game. Negative factors include the diminishing marginal impact of Trump's "escape" strategy, large internal differences within the Fed with a possible suspension of interest - rate cuts, the deterioration of risk preference, and the optimistic expectation of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai gold on March 2, 2026, are 169,468, an increase of 3,206 (1.93%) compared to March 1; the short positions are 42,059, a decrease of 931 (- 2.17%); the net long position is 127,409, an increase of 4,137 (3.36%) [37]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 holders in Shanghai silver on March 2, 2026, are 283,761, an increase of 7,159 (2.59%) compared to February 27; the short positions are 285,652, an increase of 7,291 (2.62%); the net short position is - 1,891, an increase of - 132 (7.50%) [40].