贾东旭 高级宏观分析师 侯倩楠 宏观分析师 联系人： 贾东旭 报告正文 事件： 5 月 7 日，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 "一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期" 情况 。 本次发布会的变与不变？三大部门负责人出席，更侧重详细阐释政策落实情况 继"9.24"金融政策发布会后，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人再度联合召开新闻发布会，详解本轮一 揽子金融政策支持进展。 4月中央政治局会议作出部署后，多部门已召开新闻发布会解读落实举措。 5月7 日，央行、金融监管总局、证监会负责人进一步详解稳市场强预期的一揽子金融政策。与"9.24"发布会相 似，本次发布会仍为三大金融相关部门负责人共同出席；不同在于，此次发布会紧跟4月中央政治局会议， 侧重对政策执行细则的深度解读。 本次发布会，央行重点介绍推出三大类型货币政策措施、十项具体举措。 三大类型包含，数量型政策，通 过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给；价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，也 就是中央银行向商业银行提供再贷款的利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率；结构型政策，完善现有结构性货 币政策工具，并创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 ...

Policy Insights - The recent financial policy package is substantial and contains many unexpected details, indicating a shift in market trading expectations towards the implementation of incremental fiscal policies[2] - The People's Bank of China announced a comprehensive 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market[12] Market Reactions - A-shares are likely to enter a strong oscillating trend, supported by the government's commitment to stabilize the capital market amid easing US-China trade tensions[13] - The bond yield curve is expected to steepen initially before flattening, with limited upward movement in long-term rates due to ongoing uncertainties in US-China negotiations[13] Economic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI orders index fell by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, prompting timely policy responses to counteract weakening export indicators[4] - The market anticipates further clues from the release of April's major economic indicators throughout May, which may influence future policy directions[2] Interest Rate Adjustments - The policy interest rate was lowered by 10 basis points to 1.4%, signaling a strong intent to guide the overall yield curve downward[9] - Structural monetary policy tools saw a more significant reduction of 25 basis points, with specific rates for agricultural and small business loans adjusted to 1.5%[9] Risk Considerations - There is a risk that the implementation of re-lending policies may not meet expectations, potentially leading to unexpected tightening of liquidity in the market[14]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a package of eight incremental financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, focusing on key economic issues and long-term development [1][6]. Group 1: Incremental Policies - The eight incremental policies include the introduction of financing systems compatible with new real estate development models to stabilize the real estate market [3][4]. - Expansion of the long-term investment pilot program for insurance funds to introduce more incremental capital into the market [3][9]. - Adjustment of regulatory rules to lower investment risk factors for insurance companies in the stock market, supporting capital market stability [4][9]. - Implementation of a comprehensive policy to support financing for small and private enterprises, enhancing coordination in financing efforts [4][6]. - Development of policies to support foreign trade, providing targeted services to businesses affected by tariffs [4][10]. - Revision of merger loan management methods to promote industrial transformation and upgrading [5]. - Expansion of the establishment of financial asset investment companies to increase investment in technology innovation enterprises [5][11]. - Formulation of high-quality development opinions for technology insurance to better support technological innovation [6][13]. Group 2: Market Stability - In the real estate sector, the financial regulatory authority is enhancing the financing coordination mechanism to support the completion of housing projects, with approved loans increasing to 6.7 trillion yuan, aiding over 16 million housing units [7][8]. - The first quarter of this year saw an increase of over 750 billion yuan in real estate loans, with new personal housing loans reaching the highest quarterly increase since 2022 [7][8]. - For the stock market, the financial regulatory authority has initiated reforms to allow insurance funds to invest more in equities, with plans to approve an additional 60 billion yuan for market liquidity [9][10]. - The insurance funds currently invest over 4.4 trillion yuan in stocks and equity funds, with a focus on optimizing asset allocation to enhance support for the real economy [9][10]. Group 3: Support for Technology and Innovation - The financial asset investment company initiative aims to enhance support for technology enterprises, with signed investment intentions exceeding 380 billion yuan [11][12]. - The banking sector is encouraged to adopt a blended financing model for technology enterprises, combining traditional loans with direct investment [12]. - The establishment of technology insurance is expected to improve risk-sharing mechanisms, thereby enhancing the resilience of technological innovation [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including a series of monetary policy measures aimed at enhancing liquidity and supporting economic growth [1][9]. Monetary Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3][9]. - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies will be reduced from 5% to 0% to enhance their credit supply capabilities [9]. - The policy interest rate will be decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, expected to lead to a similar decline in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [3]. - Structural monetary policy tool rates will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, including rates for various special policy tools and re-lending for agriculture and small enterprises [3]. - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, with the rate for first-time homebuyers over five years dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. Support for Innovation and Consumption - The PBOC will increase the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, supporting the "two new" policies [5][6]. - A new 500 billion yuan re-lending facility will be established to guide commercial banks in increasing credit support for service consumption and elderly care [7]. - An additional 300 billion yuan will be allocated to support agriculture and small enterprises, complementing the reduction in re-lending rates [8]. Capital Market Support - The PBOC will optimize two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market, merging the quotas for securities fund and insurance company swap facilities and stock repurchase re-lending to a total of 800 billion yuan [8]. - A risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds will be created, allowing the central bank to provide low-cost re-lending to purchase these bonds, supporting financing for technology innovation enterprises [8]. Regulatory Measures - The National Financial Supervisory Administration plans to introduce eight incremental policies to stabilize the real estate market and enhance financing for small and private enterprises [10][11]. - The approval of "white list" loans by commercial banks has increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of over 16 million residential units [16]. - The insurance fund's long-term investment pilot program will be expanded, injecting more incremental funds into the market [19][22]. Market Confidence - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) expresses confidence in achieving stable and healthy development of the stock market, supported by strong leadership and a robust policy framework [27][28]. - The A-share market is seen as having strong resilience and adaptability, with nearly 90% of listed companies' revenues coming from domestic sources [31]. - The CSRC will continue to assist affected companies in coping with the impacts of U.S. tariffs, enhancing regulatory flexibility and supporting mergers and acquisitions [34][35].

中国人民银行、中国证监会公告。 中国人民银行 中国证监会公告〔2025〕第8号 为贯彻落实党的二十届三中全会精神，加快多层次债券市场发展，构建同科技创新相适应的科技金融体制，加强对国家重大科技任务和科技型中小企业的 金融支持，完善长期资本投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技的支持政策，现就支持发行科技创新债券有关事宜公告如下： 一、丰富科技创新债券产品体系，加快构建多层次债券市场 （一）金融机构、科技型企业、私募股权投资机构和创业投资机构（以下简称股权投资机构）等三类机构可发行科技创新债券，募集资金用于支持科技创 新领域投融资。 （二）商业银行、证券公司、金融资产投资公司等金融机构可发行科技创新债券，聚焦主责主业，发挥投融资服务专业优势，依法运用募集资金通过贷 款，股权、债券、基金投资，资本中介服务等多种途径，专项支持科技创新领域业务。 党的二十届三中全会明确提出，要加快多层次债券市场建设，构建同科技创新相适应的科技金融体制。近日，中国人民银行、中国证监会联合发布关于支 持发行科技创新债券有关事宜的公告（中国人民银行 中国证监会公告〔2025〕8号，以下简称《公告》）。《公告》是落实党的二十届三中全会精神的重 要举措 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250507 "稳市场稳预期"政策发布提振资本市场信 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 潘京 执业证书：S0600524120011 panj@dwzq.com.cn 心 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 5 月 7 日上午，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督 管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 并答记者问。 观点 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 芦哲 相关研究 《货币政策变局：如何理解"降准降 息"的逻辑》 2025-05-06 《特朗普 2.0 百日新政复盘及后市展 望》 2025-05-06 东吴证券研究所 1 / 3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 一季度数据显示经济整体呈现企稳回升态势，但内需压力仍存，在关税 影响下，外部环境不确定性增加，出口下行、企业利润实际受损的程度 仍然有待评估。为贯彻中央政治局会议精神，进一步实施好适度宽松的 货币政策，"一行一局一会"出台了全面、清晰、务实的一揽子金融支持 政策， ...

21世纪经济报道记者 边万莉 杭州报道 5月7日，国新办就"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 举行新闻发布会，中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽、中国证券监督管理委 员会主席吴清出席并回答记者提问。 就货币政策工具调整、降准降息、优化两项支持资本市场的工具、稳楼市稳股市、应对关税冲击、科技 金融发展、公募基金改革等热点话题，三部委在发布会上作了回应。 要点速览： 会上，央行宣布推出包括降准降息在内的三大类共十项举措；金融监管总局将推出八项增量政策，包括 完善房地产系列融资制度、扩大险资长期投资试点范围等；证监会提出将突出服务新质生产力发展的重 要着力点，大力推动中长期资金入市等。 5、优化两项支持资本市场的工具：总额度8000亿元合并使用，参与机构扩围至40家，贷款最长期限延 长到3年。 6、稳楼市稳股市：完善房地产系列融资制度、鼓励保险公司加大入市力度。 7、应对美国加征关税冲击：应贷尽贷、应续尽续，对受影响上市公司增强监管包容度。 8、支持科技金融发展：债券市场"科技板"相关政策和准备工作已经基本就绪，创设科技创新债券风险 分担工具。 9、今日将发布《推动公募基金高质量发展行动 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250507 "稳市场稳预期"政策发布提振资本市场信 心 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 5 月 7 日上午，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督 管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 并答记者问。 观点 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 潘京 执业证书：S0600524120011 panj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 ◼ 一季度数据显示经济整体呈现企稳回升态势，但内需压力仍存，在关税 影响下，外部环境不确定性增加，出口下行、企业利润实际受损的程度 仍然有待评估。为贯彻中央政治局会议精神，进一步实施好适度宽松的 货币政策，"一行一局一会"出台了全面、清晰、务实的一揽子金融支持 政策，以"稳市场、稳预期"为目标，释放出强烈的宏观调控信号。本 次会议发声既体现了中央对当前经济形势的精准把控，也展现出中央坚 定不移执行高质量发展目标的战略定力。 ◼ 央行分别就数量型、价格型和结构型工具 ...

5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会上，央行行长潘功胜宣布：降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。公开市场7 天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点。 也就是说，降准降息来了！ 降准方面，幅度高达0.5个百分点，释放长期流动性约1万亿元，超出预期，央行过往降准一般是0.25个百分点。 意义：有助于增加市场上的资金数量。印证了中国社会科学院学部委员余永定的观点： 与2024年相比，中国人民银行想通过现有政策工具降低市场基准利率，加快M2增速，从而实现 GDP增速5%左右、通货膨胀率涨幅2%左右的货 币政策最终目标。 之前监管已经明确：从2025年起每年新增保费的30%用于投资A股。未来三年公募基金持有A股流通市值每年至少增长10%。 我前期文章中多次提到，我国已经明确今年经济增长目标是5%左右，为了这个目标，外部环境风险越大，国内宏观政策发力的力度就越大，一轮 政策组合拳随时来临，现在得到印证，未来根据形势需要不排除还会有新的组合拳 此外，央行宣布降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，预计每年将节省居民公积金 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Overview - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to implement a package of monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, with a focus on liquidity and financing conditions [1][2] - The monetary policy will be characterized by ample liquidity, a reasonable growth of social financing, and low comprehensive financing costs [2] Group 2: Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Adjustments - The reserve requirement ratio will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market, reducing the average reserve requirement ratio from 6.6% to 6.2% [3] - The policy interest rate will be reduced by 0.1 percentage points, leading to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and expected annual savings of over 20 billion yuan in housing provident fund loan interest for residents [4] Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC will lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and establish a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care re-loan to boost domestic demand [5][6] - The quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-loans will be increased from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises [6] Group 4: Capital Market Support Tools - The PBOC will merge two capital market support tools with a total quota of 800 billion yuan to enhance flexibility and meet market demands [7] - The maximum loan term for stock repurchase re-loans will be extended from 1 year to 3 years, encouraging banks to issue credit loans [8] Group 5: Technology Innovation Bond Risk Sharing Tool - The PBOC is preparing to launch a "technology board" for bond issuance, supporting financial institutions and technology enterprises, with nearly 100 market institutions planning to issue over 300 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [10][11] - A risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds will be established to lower financing costs and support longer-term bond issuance [11] Group 6: Market Behavior Regulation - The PBOC will enhance the monetary policy framework and strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, regulating unreasonable market behaviors that may hinder monetary policy transmission [12]