1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastics industry is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend in the near - term, with the L - PP spread likely to decline due to new production capacity, higher plastics operating rates compared to PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 20, the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 91%, a moderately high level. As of the week ending January 16, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The easing of the Iran situation caused a drop in crude oil prices. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, with limited pre - holiday stocking [1][4] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased by 0.90% to close at 6640 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9748 lots in open interest to 495212 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with LLDPE at 6650 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8900 - 9210 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8290 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 20, the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units raised the plastics operating rate to about 91%, a moderately high level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 16, the PE downstream operating rate dropped to 40.93%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and packaging film orders slightly declining [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory on Tuesday was 560,000 tons, the same as the previous day and 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but average recently, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $64 per barrel, and the Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained unchanged at $710 and $700 per ton respectively [4]

摘要：【图】2025年9月江西省初级形态的塑料产量数据分析 2025年1-9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前9个月，江西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到了 52.7万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了10.9%，增速较2024年同期低15.2个百分点，增速放缓， 增速较同期全国低0.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量10970.31113万吨的比 重为0.5%。 2025年9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 单独看2025年9月份，江西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了7.1万吨，与2024年同期的数 据相比，9月份的产量增长了6.7%，增速较2024年同期低28.9个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国低 3.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1266.54696万吨的比重为0.6%。 图表：江西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入 2000万元。 产业调研 ...

单独看2025年9月份，辽宁省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量达到了50.7万吨，与2024年同期的 数据相比，9月份的产量下降了1.0%，增速较2024年同期低15.9个百分点，增速较同期全国低11.4个百 分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量1266.54696万吨的比重为4.0%。 摘要：【图】2025年1-9月辽宁省初级形态的塑料产量统计分析 2025年1-9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前9个月，辽宁省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量累计达到了 513.8万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了9.4%，增速较2024年同期高4.1个百分点，继续保持增 长，增速较同期全国低2.2个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量10970.31113万吨 的比重为4.7%。 图表：辽宁省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年9月初级形态的塑料产量分析： 图表：辽宁省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计 注：初级形态的塑料2004年及以前名称为塑料树脂及共聚物，简称塑料。 从2011年起，我国规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500 ...

证券之星消息，1月20日塑料板块较上一交易日下跌1.13%，博菲电气领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4113.65，下跌0.01%。深证成指报收于14155.63，下跌0.97%。塑料板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日塑料板块主力资金净流出12.52亿元，游资资金净流入2.03亿元，散户资金净流 入10.49亿元。塑料板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 001255 博菲电气 | | 5533.34万 | 9.65% | -8567.33万 | -14.94% | 3033.99万 | 5.29% | | 002585 双星新材 | | 4542.30万 | 6.25% | 2398.66万 | 3.30% | -6940.96万 | -9.55% | | 920056 | 能之光 | 1930.82万 | 8.01% | 249.32万 | 1.03% | -181.59万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The PEEK (Polyether Ether Ketone) industry chain is expected to enter a high-growth phase, driven by increasing downstream demand and the ability of domestic companies to respond quickly and reduce costs, enhancing their market share in the domestic substitution process [1][2]. Group 1: PEEK Characteristics and Market Potential - PEEK is a high-performance engineering plastic with superior rigidity and toughness compared to general engineering plastics, significantly surpassing metal materials in specific strength, and offers advantages such as high temperature resistance, wear resistance, chemical corrosion resistance, and flame retardancy [1]. - The current market price for PEEK is estimated at 350,000 yuan per ton, corresponding to a market space of approximately 2.3 billion yuan. If PEEK's penetration in robotic components increases, the actual demand scale will further expand [1][4]. Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - The global PEEK production capacity is dominated by international companies such as Victrex, Solvay, and Evonik, which have established high barriers in intellectual property and industrial-scale production. Domestic companies are actively expanding production and leveraging advantages in raw materials to accelerate substitution [2]. - China's PEEK production has significantly increased from approximately 200 tons in 2017 to an estimated 3,808 tons in 2024, indicating a deepening level of domestic production [2]. Group 3: Demand Side Trends - China, Europe, and the Americas are the main consumption regions for PEEK. China's demand for PEEK has grown from 80 tons in 2012 to 1,980 tons in 2021, with a CAGR of 42.84%, significantly outpacing the global average [3]. - The application of PEEK is expanding in high-end fields, with increasing commercialization and maturity in processing methods. It is gaining traction in sectors such as high-pressure charging, automotive lightweighting, medical devices, and humanoid robots [3]. Group 4: PEEK's Role in Humanoid Robotics - Breakthroughs in humanoid robotics and embodied intelligence are creating strong new growth opportunities for PEEK. The global number of humanoid robots in use is expected to exceed 100 million units by 2045, corresponding to a market size of approximately 10 trillion yuan [4]. - In the cost structure of robots, the motion layer (including components like planetary roller screws and harmonic reducers) accounts for about 55% of the total value. PEEK's advantages in lightweight and durability make it an ideal choice for enhancing the performance of these components [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - LLDPE and PP are both rated as neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment has cooled down, and supply - demand support is insufficient. The market is back to fundamental trading and may be weak and volatile in the short term [1][2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Key Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,667 yuan/ton (-28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,482 yuan/ton (-14). LL North China spot is 6,660 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot is 6,730 yuan/ton (-120), and PP East China spot is 6,410 yuan/ton (-30). LL North China basis is -7 yuan/ton (+28), LL East China basis is 63 yuan/ton (-92), and PP East China basis is -72 yuan/ton (-16) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 81.6% (-2.1%), and PP operating rate is 75.6% (+0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 289.9 yuan/ton (-52.7), PP oil - based production profit is -360.1 yuan/ton (-52.7), and PDH - based PP production profit is -582.4 yuan/ton (+60.7) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is 240.1 yuan/ton (-23.6), PP import profit is -253.7 yuan/ton (+6.5), and PP export profit is -61.4 US dollars/ton (-0.8) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 36.9% (-1.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.2% (-0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.6% (-0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 63.6% (+0.3%) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The geopolitical situation in Iran has eased, and international oil prices have fallen from high levels. There is still an expectation of a decline due to oversupply. After the macro - sentiment cools down, the weak fundamentals of PE are being traded, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. Supply is expected to rise steadily, demand is in the off - season, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory under high supply [2] - **PP**: After the macro - sentiment is digested, the futures price has corrected from a high level. The supply - side may see more maintenance, demand support may weaken, and the overall inventory level is still high. The short - term rebound depends on the scale of supply - side maintenance, and the off - season demand may limit the rebound space [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: LLDPE is neutral, and PP is neutral. The market may be weak and volatile in the short term [4] - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [4] - **Inter - commodity**: No strategy provided [4]

摘要：【图】2025年9月山西省初级形态的塑料产量数据分析 2025年9月初级形态的塑料产量统计： 初级形态的塑料产量：9.1 万吨 同比增长：0.7% 增速较上一年同期变化：高7.1个百分点 2025年1-9月初级形态的塑料产量统计： 初级形态的塑料产量：86.0 万吨 同比增长：7.0% 增速较上一年同期变化：低1.8个百分点 据统计，2025年1－9月，山西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长了7.0%， 达86.0万吨，增速较上一年同期低1.8个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全国低4.6个百分点，约占同期 全国规模以上企业初级形态的塑料产量10970.31113万吨的比重为0.8%。详见下图： 图2：山西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（累计值）统计图 据统计，2025年9月山西省规模以上工业企业初级形态的塑料产量与上年同期相比增长了0.7%，达9.1万 吨，增速较上一年同期高7.1个百分点，增速较同期全国低9.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业初 级形态的塑料产量1266.54696万吨的比重为0.7%。 详见下图： 图1：山西省初级形态的塑料产量分月（当月值）统计图 注：初级形态的塑料2 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 20 日 LLDPE：标品排产回升，现货交投转弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6667 | -0.42% | 468196 | 13977 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -67 | | -95 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -24 | | -28 | | | | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | 重要现货价格 | 华 北 | 6600 | | 6600 | | | | 华 东 | 6720 | | 6720 | | | | 华 南 | 6800 | | 6800 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【现货消息】 期货持续回调，上游低价预售及近期 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The plastic sector increased by 1.15% on January 19, with Fule New Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4114.0, up 0.29%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14294.05, up 0.09% [1] Group 2: Top Gainers in the Plastic Sector - Fule New Materials (code: 605488) closed at 43.02, with a rise of 10.00% and a trading volume of 206,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 863 million [1] - Double Star New Materials (code: 002585) closed at 7.74, up 9.94%, with a trading volume of 819,400 shares and a transaction value of 619 million [1] - Other notable gainers include Shuangxiang Co. (code: 002395) with a 7.81% increase, closing at 18.78, and Ruihua Tai (code: 688323) with a 7.03% increase, closing at 23.76 [1] Group 3: Market Outflows and Inflows - The plastic sector experienced a net outflow of 68.8652 million from institutional investors and a net outflow of 143 million from speculative funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 212 million [2] - The detailed fund flow for individual stocks indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among different companies [3] Group 4: Individual Stock Fund Flows - Dongcai Technology (code: 601208) had a net inflow of 134 million from institutional investors, representing 6.66% of its total [3] - Fule New Materials (code: 605488) saw a net inflow of 87.2174 million from institutional investors, accounting for 10.10% [3] - Double Star New Materials (code: 002585) had a net outflow of 43.0187 million from speculative funds, indicating a negative sentiment [3]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃周报 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 供应压力仍较大，承压调整 20260118 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面概述 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计：本周，中国聚乙烯生产企业样本库存量预计：37万吨左右，库存预计由跌 转涨；中国聚丙烯生产企业库存量预计：42万吨左右，较本期下降。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计：本周，广东石化、福 ...