Core Viewpoint - The modified plastics industry is expected to thrive in 2023, particularly driven by the automotive sector, which has seen significant growth in production and sales in China [1]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, major companies such as Prilit (+66.65%), Yinhui Technology (+83%), Xinhengcheng (+70%), and Daon Co. (+48%) reported substantial earnings growth, indicating a positive trend for other companies like Kingfa Technology, Nanjing Julong, and Huitong Co. [2]. - Kingfa Technology anticipates a net profit of 550 million to 650 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.82% to 71.15% [3]. Group 2: Company Developments - Kingfa Technology reported a total revenue of 15.666 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 49.06% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 247 million yuan, up 138.20% [4]. - The company attributes its performance to three main factors: increased product development, optimization of product structure, and accelerated global expansion [4][5]. - Kingfa's production capacity for modified plastics is projected to reach 3.72 million tons per year, with significant contributions from automotive and electronic sectors [4]. Group 3: Strategic Goals - Kingfa Technology aims for a total output value of 1 trillion yuan, with specific targets of 800 billion yuan from modified plastics, 300 billion yuan from new materials, 400 billion yuan from green petrochemicals, and 100 billion yuan from healthcare [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium term, the prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) are bearish. In the short term, the commodity atmosphere is warm, and the prices of plastic PP are oscillating. After the macro - sentiment weakens, they are still regarded as bearish [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant production capacity release pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected new production capacity of standard - grade PE in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with a reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as the high - level maintenance in the first half may lead to a rebound in the operation rate of existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse the weak demand, so there is a lack of upward momentum [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral Trading**: In the medium term, prices are bearish. In the short term, due to the warm commodity atmosphere, plastic PP prices are oscillating and will turn bearish after the macro - sentiment weakens. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines. - **Options**: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, both PE and PP inventories increased. PE total inventory rose by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons, and PP total inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [6][8]. - **Production Capacity Release**: In the second half of the year, the estimated new PP production capacity is 3.15 million tons, and the new PE production capacity is 2.05 million tons for the 2509 contract and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The release of linear low - density polyethylene (LL) production capacity slows down significantly in the second half of the year [9]. - **Demand**: The demand for PE and PP is still weak year - on - year. The PE pipe industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 29% this week, and the BOPP and injection - molding industries of PP saw their operating rates drop by 1 percentage point to 58% and 44% respectively [12][13][14]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PE products and related raw materials showed different changes. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 [24]. - **Sino - US PE Relationship**: China is a net importer of PE. In 2024, the apparent demand for PE was 41.61 million tons, with an import volume of 13.85 million tons and an import dependence of 33%. The import volume from the US was 2.39 million tons, accounting for 17.2% of total imports and 5.7% of apparent demand [27]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PE, such as oil - based and coal - based, showed different trends. The oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 week - on - week [24]. - **Inventory**: PE inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating load is 74.68%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous period [46]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of import offers and quotas remained low, and the demand was weak, resulting in a light trading atmosphere [55]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PP products and related raw materials also changed. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the PP CFR China price remained unchanged [66]. - **Sino - US PP Relationship**: China is a net importer of PP. In 2024, the apparent demand for PP was 39.37 million tons, with an import volume of 367,000 tons and an import proportion of 9%. The import volume from the US was 39,400 tons, accounting for 1.07% of total imports and 0.1% of apparent demand. The cost - end propane of PP has a high dependence on the US [69]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PP, such as oil - based, CTP, and PDH, showed different trends. The oil - based PP profit increased by 58 [66]. - **Inventory**: PP inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: This week, the operating load rate of domestic PP plants was 77.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and 3.76 percentage points from the same period last year [87]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of imports, overseas suppliers were cautious, and the offers were few and higher than the domestic market level, resulting in few transactions. In terms of exports, due to sufficient supply from the Middle East and emerging regions, China's PP exports had difficulty in getting large - volume orders [94][96].

塑料产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -7 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7288 | 10 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7258 | 16 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -7 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 307887 | 33828 持仓量(日,手) | 421336 | -11185 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 30 | -6 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 352132 | 639 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 390464 | -1586 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -38332 | 2225 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7260 | -9.57 LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of polystyrene polymer new materials and is recognized as a national high-tech enterprise [1] - It is classified as a "Little Giant" enterprise by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - Main products include GPPS (General Purpose Polystyrene) and HIPS (High Impact Polystyrene), widely used in various industries such as electronics, optical displays, toys, and medical devices [1] Group 2: Product Development and Sales - In 2024, HIPS product sales reached 93,190.28 tons, a 48.45% increase from 2023, driven by government policies promoting consumption and industrial upgrades [2] - The company plans to enhance the promotion of high-gloss HIPS materials and accelerate the introduction of low-temperature resistant HIPS materials in 2025 [2] - The sales volume of PS refrigerator transparent inner materials has steadily increased over the past three years [2] Group 3: Raw Materials and Procurement - The main raw material is styrene, procured primarily through long-term contracts, which helps reduce transportation costs and ensure material quality [2] - The company has a significant advantage in its procurement strategy due to its partnership with China National Offshore Oil Corporation [2] Group 4: Customer Structure and Revenue - In 2024, factory customers generated revenue of 89,502.44 million yuan, accounting for 40.51% of total revenue, with a growth of 5.44% compared to 2023 [3] - The increase in sales to factory customers, particularly from major clients like Midea, has contributed to the growth in this segment [3] Group 5: Strategic Projects - The company successfully acquired industrial land in the Daya Bay Petrochemical Zone for its integrated polystyrene new materials project, laying a solid foundation for future development [3] - The project aims to address raw material supply issues and enhance the company's competitiveness and profitability [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Macro - level positive factors continue to boost market sentiment, and the rising upstream coal prices lead to a continuous increase in the polyolefin futures market. However, the fundamentals are difficult to improve significantly. Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, causing international oil and propane prices to decline. The production profit of PDH - made PP turns from loss to profit, and the cost - side support weakens. Downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the agricultural film start - up rate rising from the bottom and the plastic weaving start - up rate falling, while other downstream start - up rates remain stable [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7329 yuan/ton (+51), and the closing price of the PP main contract is 7112 yuan/ton (+34). The LL spot price in North China is 7220 yuan/ton (+40), the LL spot price in East China is 7270 yuan/ton (+0), and the PP spot price in East China is 7130 yuan/ton (+10). The LL basis in North China is - 109 yuan/ton (-11), the LL basis in East China is - 59 yuan/ton (-51), and the PP basis in East China is 18 yuan/ton (-24) [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - The PE start - up rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and the PP start - up rate is 76.6% (-0.8%). The PE oil - based production profit is 87.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), the PP oil - based production profit is - 302.5 yuan/ton (-7.3), and the PDH - made PP production profit is 194.2 yuan/ton (-56.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 144.9 yuan/ton (-5.4), the PP import profit is - 640.5 yuan/ton (-5.7), and the PP export profit is 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate is 42.2% (-1.0%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate is 60.3% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants are entering the maintenance season, with an increasing trend in maintenance losses, which eases the market supply pressure and slightly reduces production inventory [2]

Core Viewpoint - Arkema, a global leader in specialty materials, is investing approximately $20 million to build a new Rilsan® Clear polyamide production facility in Singapore, expected to commence production in Q1 2026, in response to the growing demand for sustainable high-performance transparent materials [2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Expansion - The new facility will triple Arkema's global production capacity for Rilsan® Clear polyamide, following a recent expansion that increased Rilsan® PA11 capacity by 50% [3]. - Since 2017, Arkema has initiated a five-year investment plan totaling €300 million to establish Singapore as a core production base for specialty polyamides, focusing on bio-based PA11 to meet diverse sustainable material demands [3]. - The company issued its first €300 million green bond in 2020 to support the construction of the new plant on Jurong Island, which began production in H1 2022, enhancing global PA11 capacity by 50% [3]. Group 2: Product Characteristics and Applications - Transparent nylon is a high-performance engineering plastic with a light transmittance of up to 90%, surpassing PC and approaching PMMA, and exhibits excellent thermal stability, impact toughness, electrical insulation, dimensional stability, and aging resistance [4]. - It is widely used in various sectors, including household goods, electronic devices, precision optical instruments, sports equipment, healthcare, and the automotive industry [4]. Group 3: Production Methods and Challenges - The production methods for transparent nylon include physical methods, which involve adding nucleating agents to form microcrystalline structures, and chemical methods, which introduce monomers with side chains or cyclic structures to disrupt molecular regularity [5]. - Achieving high transparency while maintaining mechanical strength, heat resistance, and dimensional stability is a key challenge in the production of transparent nylon [5]. Group 4: Market Demand and Growth - The global transparent nylon market is projected to grow from approximately $24.45 billion in 2024 to $25.44 billion in 2025, reaching $34.86 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.02% [9]. - Major global producers of transparent polyamides include companies like Evonik, Arkema, BASF, and DuPont, while domestic producers in China face challenges in product variety and performance in high-value applications [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term market trend is bullish, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 5100 on the daily K - line of V2509 [3]. - In July, domestic PVC plants are undergoing centralized maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Although some plants are planned to be put into production, the exit of backward production capacity driven by policies is expected to relieve supply pressure [3]. - It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July [3]. - The impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production. The lifting of the export restriction on ethane to China by the US may drive down the cost of the ethylene - based method in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures is 5040 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 77 yuan/ton. The trading volume is 1242330 lots, an increase of 267395 lots, and the open interest is 932779 lots, a decrease of 34594 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 23605 lots, an increase of 6984 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4822.31 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [3]. - In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC is 4945 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of calcium carbide - based PVC is 4860 yuan/ton, up 18.75 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF price of PVC in China is 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and the CIF price in Southeast Asia is 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Northwest Europe is 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The basis of PVC is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China is 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it is 2630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67 yuan/ton; in the Northwest, it is 2388 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia is 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East is 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and in Southeast Asia is 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. - The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East is 184 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton, and in Southeast Asia is 188 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC is 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.8%, a decrease of 0.17 percentage points, and the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC is 68.54%, a decrease of 1.92 percentage points [3]. - The total social inventory of PVC is 37.31 tons, an increase of 1.14 tons. The inventory in East China is 33.03 tons, an increase of 1.1 tons, and the inventory in South China is 4.28 tons, an increase of 0.04 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index is 93.72, a decrease of 0.14. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 23183.61 million square meters, an increase of 5347.77 million square meters [3]. - The cumulative value of real estate construction area is 625019.54 million square meters, an increase of 4704.49 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment is 19154.81 billion yuan, an increase of 4281.68 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC is 14.54%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points, and the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.28%, a decrease of 1.36 percentage points [3]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.11%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.1%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 10, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in East China increased by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with the price ranging from 4830 to 4920 yuan/ton [3]. - From June 28 to July 4, the capacity utilization rate of PVC in China was 77.44%, a decrease of 0.65% compared with the previous period [3]. - As of July 3, the new sample statistics of Longzhong's social inventory increased by 2.89% month - on - month to 59.18 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.66% [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term oil price is expected to remain firm and maintain a volatile pattern, but it is bearish in the medium term. The asphalt price may remain relatively low, the liquefied gas price is expected to be weak, the natural gas price in the US is expected to rise while that in Europe is under pressure. For various chemical products, most are expected to show a pattern of shock, with some being bearish or bullish in the short - term [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. - For forest products and paper products, the market is generally in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices showing different trends of stability, decline or shock [38][39][40][41][42]. - For rubber products, the market is affected by multiple factors, and different types of rubber have different investment suggestions, mainly focusing on waiting and seeing [44][45][46][47][48]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $68.33, up $0.40/barrel, a 0.59% increase; Brent2509 contract settled at $70.15, up $0.57/barrel, an 0.82% increase. SC2508 contract rose 8.6 to 509.9 yuan/barrel, and 6.4 to 516.3 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Related News**: Trump expanded the global trade war, announcing a 50% tariff on imported copper and threatening semiconductor and pharmaceutical tariffs. Japan and South Korea will negotiate with the US to ease the impact of tariff hikes. EIA raised the global oil production growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The near - term spread of crude oil is strong, Saudi Arabia raised the official price, and the refining profit has recovered. The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and bearish in the medium - term [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound thinking, medium - term bearish; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; wait and see for options [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3629 points (+1.11%) at night, BU2512 closed at 3439 points (+1.48%) at night. The spot price in Shandong was 3580 - 4070 yuan/ton, 3670 - 3850 yuan/ton in East China, and 3610 - 3730 yuan/ton in South China [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction price in Shandong, East China, and South China remained stable. Rainy season affected demand, and the supply was sufficient [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is volatile. The supply - demand is weak in the near - term, and the inventory is low year - on - year. The supply elasticity of asphalt from local refineries has increased. The asphalt price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and the cracking spread is expected to remain high [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shock; the asphalt - crude oil spread is stable; wait and see for options [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4170 (-0.33%) at night, PG2509 closed at 4073 (-0.12%) at night. The spot price in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends [5]. - **Related News**: The price in South China declined, that in Shandong was stable with partial small drops, and that in East China generally declined [5][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply decreased, the demand was weak in both the combustion and chemical fields, and the inventory decreased. The fundamentals of liquefied gas are loose, and the price is expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak operation [7]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas production decreased, demand was strong, and LNG exports increased, so the price is expected to rise. European natural gas prices fell due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH on dips; shock for TTF [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 2992 (+0.84%) at night, LU09 closed at 3709 (+1.28%) at night. The Singapore paper - cargo market showed different spreads [8]. - **Related News**: India HPCL offered HSFO, there were attacks in the Red Sea, a US refinery had problems, and there were transactions in the Singapore spot window [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur spot discounts fell, supply may increase but is affected by geopolitical factors, and demand has seasonal support. Low - sulfur supply increased and demand had no specific driver [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see; pay attention to the digestion rhythm of high - sulfur spot in the near - term and consider going long on FU91 positive spreads on dips [10]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6696 (+0.18%) during the day and 6718 (+0.33%) at night. The spot price rose, and PXN decreased [11]. - **Related News**: A refinery's crude distillation unit caught fire, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: The social inventory of PX is low, supply is tight, and Asian PX operating rates declined. Downstream demand will increase, and PX is expected to follow the cost side in the short - term [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4710 (0%) during the day and 4720 (+0.21%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [11][12]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and a PTA device in South China returned to normal operation [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The basis of PTA declined, some devices were under maintenance or had load changes, downstream demand was weak, and inventory accumulation was expected [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4267 (-0.28%) during the day and 4270 (+0.07%) at night. The spot price and basis were reported [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and some ethylene glycol devices restarted [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of some domestic and foreign devices increased, inventory accumulation is expected in August - September, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage and options [15]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6518 (0%) during the day and 6528 (+0.15%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [15][16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some short - fiber devices reduced production or were under maintenance, the processing margin expanded, and the processing fee is expected to be strongly supported [16][17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly mentioned in the text, but similar to other products, wait - and - see for arbitrage and options can be inferred [17]. PR (Bottle Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 5866 (-0.10%) during the day and 5876 (+0.17%) at night. The spot market trading was average [17]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle chips was partially lowered [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The processing fee of bottle chips strengthened, some devices reduced production or stopped, and the price is expected to follow the raw material side in a shock [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 5931 during the day and 5989 (+0.98%) at night. EB2508 closed at 7276 (-0.83%) during the day and 7297 (+0.29%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene decreased, and that of styrene had different ranges [20]. - **Related News**: The inventory of styrene and pure benzene in ports increased, a new styrene device was planned to be tested, and a refinery's device had problems [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of pure benzene is abundant, and demand is expected to increase. The supply of styrene will increase, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The price of styrene is under pressure [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; long pure benzene and short styrene for arbitrage; wait and see for options [22]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: The price of LLDPE in most regions declined, and the price of PP in different regions also showed a downward trend [23]. - **Related News**: The maintenance ratio of PE remained unchanged, and that of PP increased slightly [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is large capacity - putting pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand is weak, and the strategy is to short on rallies [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Bearish in the short - and medium - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot price was in a narrow - range adjustment, and the caustic soda spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu increased [24][25]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was stable, and the price of caustic soda in Jinling had different changes [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC has new capacity - putting pressure, demand is weak, and exports face risks, so the price is under pressure. Caustic soda has a short - term bullish expectation but faces capacity - putting pressure in July - August [26][27]. - **Trading Strategy**: Caustic soda: short - term shock bullish; PVC: short on rallies; wait and see for arbitrage and options [28][29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, and the spot price was in a weak shock [29]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, the photovoltaic industry had an impact, and the market was generally weak [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of soda ash reached the extreme and then declined, demand was weak, inventory accumulated, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak fundamentals, price is weak but not likely to fall sharply; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [31]. Glass - **Market Review**: The futures price of glass decreased in a shock, and the spot price in different regions showed different trends [31][32]. - **Related News**: The inventory of soda ash increased, and the sales in different regions of glass were different [31][32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass market is in a shock decline, the cost of soda ash decreases, demand has no improvement, and the price is expected to be weak but not likely to fall sharply [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Macro - logic continues, glass is in a weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The futures price of methanol declined, and the spot price in different regions showed different levels [33][34]. - **Related News**: The signing volume of methanol in Northwest China decreased [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply of methanol increases, domestic supply is loose, demand is stable, and the price is expected to be weak in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak shock; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: The futures price of urea increased, and the spot price in different regions increased slightly [36]. - **Related News**: An Indian urea tender had results [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of urea decreased slightly, demand is weak in the domestic market, and the inventory is still high. The Indian tender price is high, which may boost the market in the short - term, but be cautious about chasing high [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term bullish; wait and see for arbitrage; sell call options on rebounds [38]. Log - **Related News**: The price of some logs in Jiangsu decreased, the shipping volume from New Zealand to China changed, and the freight rate had an upward and downward trend [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is still weak, and the price support and trading volume need to be considered. The difference in ruler size supports the price, and future交割 details need to be concerned [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract; pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; wait and see for options [40]. Double - Coated Paper - **Related News**: The trading atmosphere of double - coated paper was average, the price was stable, and the supply and demand were both weak [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is stable, demand is limited, and the cost of wood pulp decreases, which eases the cost pressure on paper mills [40]. Corrugated Paper - **Related News**: The price of corrugated and box - board paper was generally stable with some weakness, the price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the supply and demand of raw materials had different situations [41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the profit is expected to be slightly repaired [41]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures price of pulp was in a weak shock, and the spot price of different types of pulp had different trends [42]. - **Related News**: A large - scale investment project in the pulp and paper industry was planned [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The economic indicators in different regions are favorable, but the US dollar index is unfavorable to the pulp price [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the SP09 contract; hold the 2*SP2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss [44]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Numbered Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of RU, NR, and BR increased, and the spot price of different types of rubber showed different levels [44][45][47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [45][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The export of Chinese tires and the US auto order data are favorable to the RU price [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the RU09 and NR09 contracts; hold the RU2509 - NR2509 spread and raise the stop - loss; wait and see for options [46]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of BR increased, and the spot price in different regions had different levels [47]. - **Related News**: The US tire import volume increased in the first five months of 2025 [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in crude oil prices is unfavorable to the BR - RU spread, and the US rubber and plastic product import data is slightly favorable to the BR price [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the BR09 contract; consider the BR2509 - NR2509 spread and set a stop - loss; wait and see for the BR2509 call option [48][49].

2025 年 07 月 09 日 从对等关税到"歧视性关税" 世 界 经 济 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 陈达飞 A0230524080010 chendf@swsresearch.com 赵宇 A0230524080007 zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵宇 (8621)23297818× zhaoyu2@swsresearch.com 美东时间 7 月 7 日，特朗普向日本、韩国等 14 国发送了上调关税的信件。新关税将于 8 月 1 日生效，税率较为接近 4 月初的对等关税。市场选择"理性忽视"，等待后续的数据验证。 一、美国关税执行现状？特朗普推迟关税暂停截至日，或分批发出关税上调信函 截至 5 月，美国平均关税税率 7.4%，加征进度偏慢。截至最新数据，美国对中国税率 38.6%， 对日本 9.3%、对英国 6.2%，对越南 4.8%、对德国 6%。主要产品关税中，汽车进口税率 13.4%， 钢制产品进口税率 29.5%、铝产品 23%，塑料产品 11.3%，电气设备 8.3%。 7 月 7 日，美国宣布提 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][18][22] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year net profit growth of 48.19% to 54.83% in the first half of 2025, with projected net profit ranging from 49.1 million to 51.3 million yuan [2][7] - The growth is driven by the rapid development of advanced electronic materials and battery materials, benefiting from global AI computing power construction, high-frequency communication, and the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [2][3] - The company has successfully expanded its market share in the synthetic resin industry through new applications and fields, with phenolic resin capacity reaching approximately 650,000 tons, ranking among the world's top [3][16] - The Daqing production base is expected to achieve a reduction in losses in the first half of 2025, with increasing capacity utilization and a focus on efficient biomass utilization [17] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 789 million yuan in 2023, with a growth of 12.23% year-on-year, and expects revenues of 9.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.98% [8][20] - For 2024, the company anticipates revenues of 10.02 billion yuan, a 9.87% increase, and a net profit of 868 million yuan, a 9.94% increase [8][20] - The projected revenues for 2025 are 12.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4][20] Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is positioned as a leader in the synthetic resin sector, with a strong focus on high-frequency and high-speed PCB materials, which are essential for AI servers and data centers [11][18] - The new production lines for advanced electronic materials and battery materials are expected to ramp up production in the first half of 2025, contributing to revenue growth [2][11] - The company is actively developing new applications for its products, particularly in the silicon-carbon negative electrode materials market, which is expanding into the power battery sector [3][18] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 1.44 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 20.85 [4][20] - The expected revenues for 2025-2027 are 121.43 billion yuan, 136.98 billion yuan, and 155.35 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.29 billion yuan, 13.87 billion yuan, and 16.34 billion yuan [4][18]