以色列和伊朗宣布停火的消息，无疑是近期地缘政治局势中的重大转折点。此前，中东地区的紧张局势一 直是推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素之一。投资者在不确定性面前，往往将黄金视为避险资产的首选，从而 推动金价上升。然而，停火协议的达成，使得市场对地缘政治风险的担忧大幅缓解，投资者的风险偏好也 随之上升。他们开始将资金从黄金等避险资产中撤出，转而投向风险资产，如股票和部分大宗商品。这种 资金流向的变化，直接导致了黄金价格的下跌。 美联储观望态度：降息预期的降温 与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在周二国会听证会上的表态，也为黄金市场带来了新的变数。鲍威尔指出， 美联储需要更多时间来观察关税上调是否会推高通胀，然后才会考虑降息。这一表态暗示了美联储在短期 内可能不会急于采取降息行动，这与市场此前对降息的强烈预期形成了鲜明对比。 降息预期一直是支撑黄金价格的重要因素之一。较低的利率环境通常会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而提 升黄金的吸引力。然而，鲍威尔的言论让市场意识到，降息并非板上钉钉，美联储可能会根据更多经济数 据和通胀表现来调整政策。这种不确定性使得投资者对黄金的持有意愿有所下降，进而加剧了金价的下 跌。 6月25日，现货黄金价格 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the emergence of fraudulent activities in the foreign exchange market, particularly involving a platform named CDG that targets inexperienced investors [3][20]. - A specific case is discussed where an individual named "徐小丽" claims to be a fund manager offering unrealistic annual returns of 18%, which raises red flags about the legitimacy of the investment opportunity [6][8]. - The fraudulent platform CDG is described as having no regulatory oversight, no legitimate trading software, and a very low risk score of 1.43, indicating a high-risk environment for investors [16][20]. Group 2 - The article details how investors are misled into believing they are investing in legitimate funds through a fake MT4 server, which is manipulated to show false profits [12][13]. - It is noted that the Shanghai Rongnuo Investment Management Co., Ltd., which was previously involved, has been officially dissolved, raising concerns about its connection to CDG and the potential for scams [14][18]. - The article emphasizes the importance of verifying the legitimacy of investment platforms and the necessity for investors to conduct thorough research before committing funds [20][23].

贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/25 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3302.50 36.07 1295.00 1069.00 64.37 9718.00 变化 -78.05 -0.06 31.00 24.00 -4.14 79.00 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.97 1.16 1.36 144.89 - 变化 -0.41 0.00 0.01 -1.25 - 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | - | 1256.83 | 955.68 | 14877.49 | 1378.88 | 2 | 1 | | 变化 | - | 9.73 | -1.72 | -73.50 | 0.00 ...

2025年6月25日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1668，上调（人民币贬值）12点； 欧元/人民币报8.3224，上调118点； 港元/人民币报0.91298，上调1.5点； 英镑/人民币报9.7545，上调527点； 澳元/人民币报4.6510，上调84点； 加元/人民币报5.2206，上调12点； 100日元/人民币报4.9481，上调344点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9172，下调270点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3073，上调135点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59162，下调59.9点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.9014，上调840点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.6009，上调132点。 ...

| | | | | 贵金属早报 | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 表 现 | | | | | | | | | 品种 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦银 | | 伦敦铂 | 伦敦钯 | WTI原油 | LME铜 | | 最新 | 3380.55 | 36.13 | | 1264.00 | 1045.00 | 68.51 | 9639.00 | | 变化 | 12.30 | 0.00 | | -12.00 | 4.00 | -5.33 | 68.00 | | 品种 | 美元指数 | 欧元兑美元 | | 英镑兑美元 | 美元兑日元 | 美国10年期TIPS | | | 最新 | 98.38 | 1.16 | | 1.35 | 146.14 | - | | | 变化 | -0.38 | 0.01 | | 0.01 | 0.03 | - | | | 交 易 数 据 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | COMEX白银 库存 | 上期所白银 库存 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上 ...

Core Points - The central bank's foreign exchange market has reported the RMB exchange rate against various currencies, indicating fluctuations in the value of the RMB [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Changes - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1656, showing a depreciation of 54 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.3106, reflecting an increase of 597 points [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is at 0.91283, down by 6.9 points [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is at 9.7018, up by 585 points [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.6426, increasing by 150 points [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is at 5.2194, down by 56 points [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.9137, up by 24 points [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is at 10.9442, increasing by 151 points [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.2938, up by 111 points [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.59761, increasing by 47.6 points [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is at 8.8174, up by 392 points [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is at 5.5877, increasing by 150 points [1]

Group 1 - The US dollar against the Japanese yen rose by 0.05%, closing at 146.17 yen, with a trading range of 148.03 to 146.00 yen throughout the day [1] - The euro against the Japanese yen increased by 0.52% [1] - The British pound against the Japanese yen saw a rise of 0.62% [1]

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the stock market is at a technical support level, but volatility has reached a new low since 2024, indicating that a trend change may be imminent [5][21]. - The A-share market's trading volume reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 54.9 billion compared to the previous trading day, with market focus on stablecoins, port shipping, and solid-state batteries [21]. - The report suggests that the probability of an upward trend in the index is low, and managing positions is the best strategy [21]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital, as the overall market remains volatile with a lack of positive news [18][8]. - The report notes that the bond market may regain upward momentum due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1876, an increase of 91 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential strengthening of the RMB [33]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for the USD remains bearish [33]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.13%, with strong performance in the energy sector but poor performance in agricultural and chemical products [38]. - The report advises caution for investors who have not participated at lower levels, suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to high volatility in oil and related products [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - **Global Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].

2025年6月23日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1710，上调（人民币贬值）15点； 欧元/人民币报8.2509，下调94点； 港元/人民币报0.91352，上调1.9点； 英镑/人民币报9.6433，下调268点； 澳元/人民币报4.6276，下调253点； 加元/人民币报5.2250，下调142点； 100日元/人民币报4.9113，下调289点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9291，上调186点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2827，下调227点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59285，下调2.1点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7782，下调105点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5727，下调108点。 ...