研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/21 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/05/20 | 4.489 | 4.702 | 3.262 | 2.605 | 3.601 | 3.217 | 0.350 | 3.348 | | 最新变化 | 0.039 | 0.039 | 0.004 | 0.018 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.039 | 0.008 | | 一周变化 | 0.022 | 0.033 | -0.091 | -0.073 | -0.096 | -0.080 | -0.013 | -0.100 | | 一月变化 | 0.163 | 0.137 | 0.023 | 0.136 | -0.043 | 0.048 | -0.016 | -0.017 | | 一年变化 | -0. ...

Group 1: US Dollar and Economic Outlook - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, stated that US debt is the safest investment on the planet, and the decision by Moody's to downgrade the rating is retrospective [1] - US Treasury Secretary Basant is expected to attend the G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Canada, with no trade agreements anticipated to be announced [1] - White House Economic Council Chairman Milan noted that President Trump recognizes the deficit as an issue and has plans to reduce it [1] - White House Press Secretary Levitt indicated that the tax reform bill is closer to passing, emphasizing the necessity of Republican support for Trump's tax plan [1] - Federal Reserve's Bostic mentioned that Moody's downgrade will impact the entire economy and financial markets, reiterating an expected rate cut this year [1] Group 2: Non-US Major Currencies - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking a return to the "3" range after two years [2] - Japan's 20-year government bond auction saw the lowest subscription ratio since 2012, leading to a spike in bond yields [2] - A member of the Bank of England, Dhingra, expressed support for a 50 basis point rate cut to signal the economic direction [2] - The European Commission's trade commissioner stated that the appreciation of the euro is a double-edged sword [2] - The European Central Bank's Müller did not rule out the possibility of further rate cuts, emphasizing the need for clear justification for significant reductions [2] Group 3: Other Economic Developments - Thailand's finance minister projected a significant slowdown in the Thai economy in the third and fourth quarters [3] - A Russian government source indicated acceptance of the ruble depreciating to 100 against the dollar [3] - A Reuters survey revealed that among 32 analysts, 20 expect the Bank of Indonesia to cut the 7-day reverse repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% on May 21 [3]

国内货币市场 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国外货币市场 债 券 市 场 国内债券市场 国外债券市场 股 票 市 场 汇 率 市 场 | 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/20 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of May 16, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.7, up 0.17% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.36, up 0.2%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 91.42, up 0.31% [1][2] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2103, appreciating by 358 points or 0.49% for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.2098, appreciating by 304 points or 0.42% [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1938, with a cumulative increase of 157 points or 0.22% for the week [5] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the recent US-China trade talks led to significant consensus, providing support for the RMB exchange rate, while the middle rate remained relatively stable [5] - The RMB's depreciation pressure has significantly eased, and further appreciation will depend on future policy guidance [6] - Changes in exporters' foreign exchange settlement behavior will be crucial for the RMB exchange rate, as companies have retained substantial high-interest USD deposits [6] International Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a loss of the highest rating across all three major international credit rating agencies [7] Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index for May was reported at 50.8, below expectations of 53.4 [7] - The US April PPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% [7] Financial Policies - The Chinese government has introduced new policies to accelerate the construction of a technology finance system, focusing on venture capital, monetary credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the major asset restructuring management measures for listed companies, introducing several new regulatory frameworks [10]

| | 欧元/美元 | 1.120 | +0.20% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EURUSD | | | | | 英镑/美元 GBPUSD | 1.331 | +0.08% | | | 美元/日元 | | -0.33% | | | USDJPY | 145.202 | | | | 澳元/美元 | 0.640 | 0% | | | AUDUSD | | | | 11 | 美元/瑞郎 | 0.833 | -0.28% | | | USDCHF | | | | | 纽元/美元 NZDUSD | 0.587 | -0.07% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | M | 英镑/日元 GBPJPY | 193.308 | -0.26% | | | | 影 拟货币 VIRTUAL CURRENCY | | | 15 | 比特币 11 BTC | 104072.520 +308.810 | +0.30% | | f | 菜特币 LTC | 100.040 +0.780 | +0.79% | | | 以太坊 ETH | 2567.390 +18.700 | +0.7 ...

智通财经5月16日电，韩国财政部称，正密切关注金融市场和外汇市场，市场目前总体稳。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the strengthening US dollar and the weakening US Treasury bonds is attributed to robust employment and inflation data, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US added an average of 155,000 non-farm jobs over the past three months, with a low unemployment rate [1]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April decreased to 2.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI fell to 2.8% year-on-year [1]. - The Federal Reserve's recent meetings indicate a strong resilience in the US economy, with no immediate need for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Federal Reserve officials express that the current moderately restrictive policy rate is well-positioned to respond to economic changes [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may impact future inflation paths, but the labor market remains strong [2]. - The delay in interest rate cuts is putting pressure on US Treasury bonds [2]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Debt Supply - The introduction of the "Big, Beautiful Bill" is expected to significantly increase the US fiscal deficit, potentially leading to increased supply pressure on Treasury bonds [2]. - The ongoing supply pressure from rising budget deficits may further impact the bond market [2]. Group 4: Supply Chain and Tariff Impact - The current tariff policies may lead to a supply shock in the US, as the return of manufacturing is unlikely in the short term [3]. - The tightening of immigration policies could further increase service prices, contributing to inflation expectations [3]. Group 5: Market Dynamics - Short-term trading factors, such as the recovery of major stock indices, are negatively impacting the US bond market [4]. - The increase in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) supply and corporate bond issuance is contributing to rising bond yields [4]. - The current market dynamics suggest that a recovery in Treasury bond prices may require signals of economic weakness or earlier-than-expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4].

周四，据智通财经，伊朗最高领袖顾问称，伊朗愿承诺永不制造核武，换取美解除制裁，油价跌超3%。继韩国讨论外汇政策后， 日本在野党列出美日贸易谈判筹码，美元跌而日元涨。 另外，由于市场预期中美贸易休战后经济前景改善，美联储降息时间将晚于预期，美债收益率因此攀升，30年期美债收益率逼近 5%大关，10年期美债收益率升破4.5%关口。美债收益率高企，打压大宗商品，金银铜集体跌超1%。 大宗商品方面，WTI原油日内跌幅超3%，报60.60美元/桶；布伦特原油日内跌幅超3%，报63.97美元/桶。 地缘政治局势趋缓、美债收益率高企，打压大宗商品，金银铜油集体下挫。另外贸易谈判乐观进展也削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。 现货黄金周三跌逾2%后延续跌势，周四再跌逾1%至3150美元下方，创下一个多月以来的最低水平。 欧股开盘下跌。 印度股市维持涨势，特朗普称，印度此前提出取消对美国的所有关税。 美债收益率走低。 美油和布油均跌超3%。现货黄、现货银、伦铜、纽铜均跌超1%。 美元指数跌约0.3%，美元兑日元跌约0.7%，日本在野党列出美日贸易谈判筹码，即买美债、进口日企在美生产的 汽车。 英国经济第一季环比增长0.7%，为四个季度最佳 ...

易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源：彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/05/14 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3235.40 32.02 983.00 962.00 61.95 ...

此外，美元与美债收益率多年来走势相关性非常强，但近期也出现了割裂。 分析认为，这些迹象表明，美股反弹可能只是一场表面的狂欢，美债收益率异常上涨以及与美元走势的背离，指向美国结构性财政问题，或暗示 美元更深层次崩溃风险。随着美国政府预计发行超2万亿美元国债，缺乏买家的局面可能迫使美联储重启资产负债表扩张。 股市狂欢，但债市却在讲述一个不同的故事 美国通胀降温却未能安抚债市，美债收益率顽固上升。 周二，美国市场上演了令人困惑的一幕：美股反弹，科技股继续飙升，而美债收益率却在通胀数放缓的情况下反常走高，美元进一步走软。 中美关税暂缓叠加美国通胀降温，引发美股大涨，然而债市与美元的表现却透露出市场深层的忧虑。 数据显示，美国4月消费者价格指数同比增长2.3%，低于经济学家预期的2.4%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平。这本应是债券市场的利好消息，但 10年期美债收益率反而上升2.4个基点至4.481%。 Pomboy警告，美联储最终可能别无选择，只能重新扩大资产负债表。"美联储是唯一明显的候选人来吸收所有这些国债发行，"她说道，并补充说 尽管信贷价差没有反应，但信贷压力正在增加。 "这是一个结构性财政问题，"她总结道 ...