——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 5 期） 本报告导读： 节前赶工托底经济活跃度，内生动能待提升，新兴产业与原油有色涨价成亮点。 投资要点： | 节前效应主导 | [Table_Authors] | 李林芷(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 5 期） | | 021-23185646 | | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | 节前赶工托底经济活跃度，内生动能待提升，新兴产业与原油有色涨价成亮点。 | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | | 010-83939827 | | 投资要点： | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | [Table_Summary] 上周政策围绕民生福祉提质与发展秩序优化展开，民生端聚焦养老、 | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | 殡葬、支付等场景强化普惠适老保障，市场端规范经营乱象、激活 | | | | 服务消费，同步优化城际铁路与能源电价机制，筑牢民生底线并激 | | 梁中华(分析师) | | 活发 ...

Group 1 - The current wave of ETF redemptions is coming to an end, providing a recovery window for large-cap stocks [2][10] - The shift in investment style is occurring on a macro level, transitioning from small-cap to large-cap and from thematic to quality stocks [3][11] - The nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair reflects a policy intention towards "real economy" in the U.S., which could significantly impact global risk assets [3][11] Group 2 - Price increases are expected to be a theme throughout the first quarter, driven by various sectors including upstream resources, midstream manufacturing, and downstream real estate [4][13] - The underlying commonality in cyclical sectors is the significant potential for profit margin recovery, as China's policy shifts from expansion to quality improvement [6][12] - The investment strategy should focus on industries where China has competitive advantages and is undergoing a reassessment of global pricing power, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [7][14] Group 3 - The recovery in consumer and real estate sectors is anticipated to occur in the spring, aligning with the broader market recovery [8][15] - Current market capitalization of real estate companies is only 1.0% of the total A-share market, indicating a potential for recovery in this sector [8][15] - Recommendations for the consumer sector include focusing on duty-free, aviation, hotels, and tea beverage industries, while for the real estate sector, attention should be on quality developers and building materials [8][16]

Market Overview - The credit bond market has transitioned from a "continuous recovery" phase to a "consolidation" phase, with marginal momentum weakening[7] - The overall yield of credit bonds has shown fluctuations, supported by configuration demand, leading to a flattening of the credit bond curve[7] - The net financing for major credit bond varieties was 1,497.8 billion CNY, remaining stable compared to the previous week[11] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a return to a focus on coupon income, emphasizing 2-3 year maturity products while ensuring manageable credit quality[8] - For long-term funds with excess allocation needs, attention should be given to 5-year and longer maturities during market fluctuations[8] Market Dynamics - In the secondary market, total transactions decreased to 8,813.3 billion CNY, down 498.47 billion CNY from the previous week[14] - The 3-year AAA medium-term note yield decreased by 0.05 basis points to 1.85%, while the 3-year AA+ and AA medium-term note yields fell by 2.05 and 4.05 basis points, respectively[14] Credit Rating Adjustments - Seven issuers had their ratings upgraded, including Shaoxing City Shangyu Water Group and Wuxi Huaguang Environmental Energy Group[21] - No new defaults were reported, but one bond, H20 Yuzhou 1, was extended, with a balance of 846 million CNY[23] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected changes in fundamentals, monetary policy not meeting expectations, and possible data inaccuracies[23]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 关注"价"的积极信号 ——1 月制造业 PMI 点评 1、制造业 PMI：短期因素叠加，景气重返收缩区间 （1）新订单：1 月新订单降至 49.2%，再度回到收缩区间，反映上月需求透 支效应。在 12 月冲刺之后，1 月需求释放透支。下游春节提前放假、降温天 气也导致需求放缓。另外，新出口订单环比降幅低于新订单总体，显示内需订 单放缓的力度相对更大。 （2）生产：生产节奏放缓，但仍在扩张区间。受需求端承压影响，生产相应 波动，增势有所放缓。其中，消费品制造业生产指数下滑 4pct 至荣枯线以下 是主要拖累，而代表新动能的行业生产仍在高景气，分化有所加大。 （3）外贸：进口偏强、出口订单转弱。新出口订单环比-1.2pct 至 47.8%，收 缩再度加剧。1 月美国针对部分高技术制造品类加征关税，美欧贸易关税摩擦 也有波动，叠加临近春节，新出口订单增势环比放缓。进口环比+0.3pct 至 47.3%，生产景气对进口需求或有一定支撑。 （4）价格：原材料购进价格、出厂价格环比+3.0pct、+1.7pct 至 56.1%、50.6%， 其中后者自 2024 年 5 月以来首次回 ...

Key Points - The article discusses the water and soil conservation compensation fees in Zhejiang Province, detailing the standards and exemptions for various construction and resource extraction activities [3]. Group 1: Compensation Fee Standards - The current compensation fee standards in Zhejiang Province include a one-time charge of 0.8 yuan per square meter for general construction projects [3]. - For mineral resource extraction, during the construction period, the fee is also based on land area at the same rate, while during the extraction period, it is charged at 0.8% of the sales revenue based on the approved extraction volume [3]. - For activities such as soil extraction, sand mining (excluding river sand), and stone mining, the fee is charged at 0.16 yuan per ton based on the approved extraction volume [3]. - The fee for the discharge of waste soil, stones, and slag is charged at 0.8 yuan per cubic meter, with a minimum charge applied for volumes less than one cubic meter [3]. Group 2: Payment and Exemption Policies - The water and soil conservation compensation fee must be self-reported and paid by the payer to the tax authorities starting from January 1, 2021 [3]. - Fees must be paid before the commencement of construction activities, or within 15 days after the due date for periodic payments [3]. - Certain projects are exempt from the compensation fee, including public welfare projects like schools and hospitals, construction of self-use housing by farmers, small-scale agricultural water conservancy projects, and military facilities [3].

Market Overview - In January 2026, the A-share market opened strong with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 5.03%, the ChiNext Index up by 4.47%, and the STAR Market 50 Index soaring by 12.29% [1] - Various sectors such as gold, silver, non-ferrous metals, AI applications, and domestic chips showed strong performance, indicating high market sentiment [1] Top Performing Stocks - The top ten performing stocks in January include: 1. C Hengyun Chang (688785) - 352.75% increase, focusing on semiconductor equipment [2] 2. Zhi Te New Materials (300986) - 234.08% increase, involved in new urbanization and quantum technology [2] 3. Fenglong Co. (002931) - 213.97% increase, related to equipment updates and robotics [2] 4. Hunan Silver (002716) - 175.15% increase, linked to gold concepts and precious metals [2] 5. Pushe Co. (688766) - 140.55% increase, focusing on IoT and automotive chips [2] 6. Sichuan Gold (001337) - 137.54% increase, associated with gold concepts and precious metals [2] 7. Silver Nonferrous (601212) - 133.68% increase, involved in gold concepts and lithium batteries [2] 8. Tongyuan Petroleum (300164) - 133.33% increase, related to shale gas and the extraction industry [2] 9. Xiaocheng Technology (300139) - 122.33% increase, focused on gold concepts and precious metals [2] 10. Kecuan Technology (603052) - 118.92% increase, involved in lithium batteries and mixed reality [2] Sector Insights - C Hengyun Chang's significant rise is attributed to its position as a leading supplier of core components for semiconductor equipment, marking a new investment opportunity in the market [2] - Zhi Te New Materials has transitioned from traditional construction aluminum mold services to new materials, leveraging AI and robotics for development [2] - Fenglong Co.'s stock surge is linked to a strategic acquisition that connects it with a leading humanoid robotics company, altering its ownership structure [3] - Hunan Silver benefits from favorable macroeconomic conditions, including geopolitical risk and interest rate cuts, enhancing its market position as a leading silver processing company [3] - Sichuan Gold's stock performance is closely tied to historical highs in global gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade friction, benefiting from increased sales and prices of gold concentrates [3] - Silver Nonferrous plans to invest 1.5 billion yuan to establish a gold company, indicating a strategic move to extend its operations into the entire gold industry chain [3] - Xiaocheng Technology's stock fluctuations are primarily due to its dominant gold business, which constitutes over 86% of its revenue, making it a direct beneficiary of rising gold prices [4] - Pushe Co. is strategically positioned in the storage industry, which is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by rapid AI infrastructure development [4] - Tongyuan Petroleum is benefiting from a cyclical recovery in the oil and gas service sector, supported by geopolitical tensions and rising international energy demand [4] - Kecuan Technology is expanding into the silicon photonics sector, aligning with current market trends in computing hardware [4]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January is 49.3%, indicating a decline from the previous month [1][2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, showing continued expansion in manufacturing production [2] - New orders index is at 49.2%, reflecting a decrease in market demand [2] - Certain industries, such as agricultural processing and aerospace, show strong production and new orders indices above 56.0%, while sectors like automotive and fuel processing are below the critical point [2] - Price indices for raw materials and factory output have risen, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking an improvement in overall market prices [2] Group 2: Large vs. Small Enterprises - Large enterprises have a PMI of 50.3%, indicating continued expansion, while medium and small enterprises have PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, showing a decline [3] - High-tech manufacturing leads with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend [3] - Consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9%, respectively, indicating a downturn in these sectors [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, reflecting a decrease from the previous month [4] - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.5%, with financial services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector is below 40.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index has dropped to 48.8%, indicating a significant decline in activity due to seasonal factors [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is at 49.8%, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities compared to the previous month [5] - The manufacturing production index is at 50.6%, while the non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, contributing to the composite index's decline [5]

据悉，枣庄累计改造老旧小区624个，改造面积1305万平方米，受益居民12.6万户。建立"实物+补贴"住房保障体系，新建改建保障性租赁住房3502套，收 购存量商品房196套用作保障性住房，实施棚改项目12个、1.78万套，惠及群众约4.5万人。累计发放住房补贴5757户、新就业无房职工补贴537人，城镇低 保、低收入、中等偏下住房困难家庭以及新市民、青年人，基本实现"应保尽保"。深化"齐鲁红色物业"建设，创新"1+3+N"党建联建机制，建成"暖心驿 站"312个，开展志愿服务、社区活动6400余场，覆盖群众64万余人次。在全省率先开展住宅小区供电改造工作，第一批58个供电改造项目、3.86万户已全 部完成改造；第二批67个项目全部完成改造，整体竣工率100%。 李厚兴提到，枣庄在出台房地产市场平稳健康发展14条措施的基础上，优化制定10条措施，配套印发《枣庄市高品质住宅开发建设技术指引》《枣庄市房 地产"以旧换新"工作实施意见》等文件，举办"青年优购乐居生活""百城千企商品房促销"等系列活动，全市房地产开发投资累计完成1490.4亿元，商品房 销售面积达1921.2万平方米。建立房地产项目融资协调机制"白名 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in January, indicating a decline in economic sentiment compared to the previous month [2] - The production index remains above the critical point at 50.6%, suggesting continued expansion in manufacturing production, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, indicating a drop in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, indicating ongoing expansion, while small and medium-sized enterprises saw PMIs of 48.7% and 47.4%, respectively, reflecting a decline in economic activity [3] - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead with a PMI of 52.0%, indicating a positive development trend, while consumer goods and high-energy industries show lower PMIs of 48.3% and 47.9% [3] - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices increased to 56.1% and 50.6%, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4% in January, reflecting a decrease in overall economic sentiment [4] - The service sector's business activity index decreased slightly to 49.5%, with financial services and capital market services showing high activity levels above 65.0%, while the real estate sector dropped below 40.0% [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell significantly to 48.8%, influenced by adverse weather and the upcoming holiday, indicating a notable decline in construction activity [4] Group 3: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index is at 49.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in overall business activities [5] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index are reported at 50.6% and 49.4%, respectively, contributing to the composite PMI's decline [5]

Group 1: Core Views - The company expects a significant increase in losses for the fiscal year 2025, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -350 million to -300 million yuan, compared to a loss of -268.3 million yuan in the previous year [5][11][8] - The anticipated operating revenue for 2025 is estimated to be between 320 million and 350 million yuan [6][16] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses to be between -323 million and -273 million yuan for 2025 [9][8] - After accounting for expected inventory impairment provisions and fair value losses on investment properties, the adjusted net profit is projected to be between -100 million and -50 million yuan [9][14] Group 3: Reasons for Performance Decline - The decline in private equity investment management income is attributed to reduced management fees due to exiting funds, lower project exit revenues, and significant losses from associated companies [13] - The real estate sector is facing challenges, including expected asset impairments and a decrease in the fair value of investment properties, leading to estimated losses of approximately 136 million yuan and 40 million yuan respectively [14] Group 4: Business Operations - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company signed 12 new project contracts totaling 125.44 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 527.22% [26] - Cumulatively, the company signed 19 project contracts in 2025, amounting to 256.49 million yuan [27]