投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月28日 烧碱：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力 PVC：短期反弹高度有限 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 4 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 然年底到明年年初 ...

上市企业：镇洋发展（603213）,鄂尔多斯（600295）,北元集团（601568）,华塑股份（600935）,氯碱化 工（600618）,新疆天业（600075）,中泰化学（002092）,君正集团（601216）,嘉化能源（600273）,滨 化股份（601678） 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国烧碱(折100％)产量为390万吨，同比增长3.5%；2025年1-10 月中国烧碱(折100％)累计产量为3824.1万吨，累计增长4.6%。 2020-2025年1-10月中国烧碱(折100％)产量统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国烧碱行业市场调查研究及未来趋势预测报告》 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market rebounds due to macro - sentiment, with marginal improvement in supply - demand. The overall supply is still abundant, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - side policy dynamics. The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend, showing regional differences. The supply - side starts to increase slightly, and the demand - side has mixed performance. Key factors to watch include liquid chlorine price fluctuations, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,757 yuan/ton (- 24), the East China basis is - 277 yuan/ton (+ 24), and the South China basis is - 237 yuan/ton (+ 44) [1] - **Spot Price**: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,520 yuan/ton (+ 20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is - 986 yuan/ton (+ 116), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is - 469 yuan/ton (+ 51), and the PVC export profit is - 11.7 US dollars/ton (- 5.7) [1] - **PVC Inventory and Start - up**: The in - plant PVC inventory is 32.9 million tons (- 1.6), the social PVC inventory is 51.1 million tons (- 0.7), the start - up rate of PVC calcium carbide - based production is 77.46% (+ 0.45%), the start - up rate of PVC ethylene - based production is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC start - up rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%) [1] - **Downstream Order Situation**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+ 11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,233 yuan/ton (- 17), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1 yuan/ton (+ 1) [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 715 yuan/ton (- 5), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+ 0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,214 yuan/ton (- 16), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 529.4 yuan/ton (- 55.6), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 222.58 yuan/ton (+ 4.38), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 423.99 yuan/ton (+ 30.00) [2] - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Start - up**: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 44.22 million tons (- 2.25), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.97 million tons (- 0.54), and the caustic soda start - up rate is 86.00% (+ 1.50%) [2] - **Caustic Soda Downstream Start - up**: The alumina start - up rate is 85.00% (- 1.11%), the printing and dyeing start - up rate in East China is 61.28% (- 0.78%), and the viscose staple fiber start - up rate is 87.03% (- 2.59%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - **Macro Factors**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft compilation meeting and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development's emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market boost PVC demand expectations. The statements of the financial regulatory authorities and the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthen the policy atmosphere [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply decreases slightly due to new and continued device maintenance, but the supply side is still abundant. Downstream start - up decreases slightly, and the export orders remain resilient before the double festivals. Social inventory is slightly reduced but still at a high level year - on - year [3] - **Profit and Market Pressure**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit of the upstream PVC has some recovery, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The calcium carbide and semi - coke production are both in the red. The high - level warehouse receipts put pressure on the PVC futures price [3] Caustic Soda - **Price and Inventory**: The caustic soda spot price is stable with a downward trend, showing regional differences. Shandong's inventory pressure is partially relieved, while Jiangsu's caustic soda inventory accumulates [3] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side start - up rate increases slightly, and the overall start - up is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is positive but is expected to decline further, which may strengthen the cost support. The alumina plant's demand is relatively stable, while non - aluminum demand weakens [3] Strategy - **PVC**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, the inter - period strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5] - **Caustic Soda**: The unilateral strategy is to oscillate, the inter - period strategy is to wait and see, and there is no cross - variety strategy [5]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the price of natural rubber rises due to the warming of commodity preference sentiment, but the overall fundamentals remain weak. It is recommended to try short - selling around 15,700 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On December 24th, the price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai increased by 250 yuan/ton to 15,100 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.68%. The whole - latex basis decreased by 110 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton, a decline of 25.00%. Other varieties also showed different price changes [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 100.00%, while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 25 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 83.33% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, Thailand's production decreased by 48.30 thousand tons to 466.20 thousand tons, a decline of 9.39%. China's production increased by 23.70 thousand tons to 137.20 thousand tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased by 0.66 percentage points to 72.05%, while that of all - steel tires decreased by 2.19 percentage points to 61.95% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased by 16,339 tons to 515,227 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 605 tons to 58,968 tons, a decline of 1.02% [1]. Group 2: Crude Oil Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Recently, the price of crude oil has been strengthening under the influence of geopolitics, but the geopolitical drive is still limited. The final price will return to be dominated by the oversupply pattern, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation between the US and Venezuela and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [3]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil Price and Spread**: On December 24th, Brent crude oil decreased by 0.14 US dollars per barrel to 62.24 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.22%, and WTI crude oil decreased by 0.03 US dollars per barrel to 58.35 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 0.05% [3]. - **Refined Oil Price and Spread**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.39 cents per gallon to 174.71 cents per gallon, a growth rate of 0.22%, while NYM ULSD decreased by 3.30 cents per gallon to 215.76 cents per gallon, a decline of 1.51% [3]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The US gasoline crack spread increased by 0.19 US dollars per barrel to 15.03 US dollars per barrel, a growth rate of 1.31%, and the US diesel crack spread decreased by 1.36 US dollars per barrel to 32.27 US dollars per barrel, a decline of 4.03% [3]. Group 3: Benzene - Styrene Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, the overall supply - demand pattern of pure benzene remains weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the future. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 yuan/ton. This week, the supply and demand of styrene both increased. Although the price is boosted in the short - term, there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the rebound space is limited. EB02 is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of WTI crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 58.35 US dollars per barrel [5]. - **Styrene - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of styrene in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 6700 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.8%. The EB02 - EB03 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.2% [5]. - **Downstream Cash Flow and Inventory**: The cash flow of EPS decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%. The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 1.30 tons to 27.30 tons, a growth rate of 5.0% [5]. Group 4: LPG Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Not provided Summary by Directory - **LPG Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the main contract PG2601 increased by 14 yuan/ton to 4235 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.33%. The PG01 - 02 spread increased by 20 yuan/ton to 159 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 14.39% [8]. - **LPG Outer - Market Price**: The FEI forward M1 contract remained unchanged at 531 US dollars per ton, and the CP swap M1 contract decreased by 1.4 US dollars per ton to 508 US dollars per ton, a decline of 0.27% [8]. - **LPG Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage ratio remained unchanged at 23.7%, and the LPG port inventory decreased by 22.4 thousand tons to 261 thousand tons, a decline of 7.89% [8]. - **LPG Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of downstream PDH increased by 2.1 percentage points to 75.0%, while the operating rate of downstream MTBE decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 68.9% [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: After the sharp rise of PX, be cautious about the current price. Do not rule out the possibility of the upstream price falling back due to substantial production cuts in the polyester sector. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. PX5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **PTA**: After the sharp rise following PX, be cautious about the current price. In the medium - term, take a long - position at low prices. TA5 - 9 can be in a long - position at low prices [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short - term. EG5 - 9 can be in a short - position at high prices [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The absolute price has limited driving force and mainly follows the raw material fluctuations. Unilateral trading is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Polyester Bottle Chip**: PR unilateral trading is the same as PTA. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the disk is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fee can be shorted at high prices [10]. Summary by Directory - **Upstream Price**: On December 25th, the price of Brent crude oil (February) remained unchanged at 62.24 US dollars per barrel, and the price of CFR Japan naphtha remained unchanged at 540 US dollars per ton [10]. - **PX - Related Price and Spread**: The CFR China PX price remained unchanged at 901 US dollars per ton. The PX03 - PX05 spread decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a decline of 75.0% [10]. - **PTA - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of PTA in East China increased by 35 yuan/ton to 5050 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.7%. The TA05 - TA09 spread increased by 16 yuan/ton to 36 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 20.5% [10]. - **MEG - Related Price and Spread**: The spot price of MEG in East China increased by 80 yuan/ton to 3653 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 2.2%. The EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 73 yuan/ton, a decline of 17.7% [10]. Group 6: Urea Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short - term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate widely. The main futures contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption rhythm of equipment and the progress of downstream demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Closing Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the 01 contract of urea decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 1712 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. The 01 contract - 05 contract spread increased by 3 yuan/ton to - 62 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 4.41% [11]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The price of anthracite small pieces (Jincheng) remained unchanged at 900 yuan/ton, and the price of动力煤坑口 (伊金霍洛旗) increased by 10 yuan/ton to 520 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.96% [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of domestic urea remained unchanged at 19.19 thousand tons. The weekly production decreased by 5.20 thousand tons to 133.34 thousand tons, a decline of 3.75% [11]. Group 7: Polyolefin Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The spot price and basis of polyolefins changed little today. The market sentiment cooled down, and the trading volume decreased compared with the previous period. In 2026, the polyolefin market is expected to face both cost reduction and profit compression, and the price center will further decline [12]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the L2601 closing price decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 6343 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.11%. The L15 spread increased by 11 yuan/ton to - 47 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.97% [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of East China PP raffia remained unchanged at 6120 yuan/ton, and the basis of North China LLDPE remained unchanged at - 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates and Inventory**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 1.22 percentage points to 82.6%. The enterprise inventory of PE decreased by 2.92 tons to 45.9 tons, a decline of 5.99% [12]. Group 8: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand of the caustic soda industry still has certain pressure. It is expected that the spot price of liquid caustic soda will be adjusted weakly and steadily in the short - term, and the price will fluctuate weakly in the long - term [13]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC have weak support. It is expected that the PVC market will continue to operate in the range, and the price will weaken after a rebound [13]. Summary by Directory - **Spot and Futures Price**: On December 25th, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased by 15.6 yuan/ton to 2234.4 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.7%. The V2605 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 4757 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.5% [13]. - **Overseas Quotation and Export Profit**: The FOB price of PVC in Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 600 US dollars per ton, and the export profit decreased by 66.5 yuan/ton to - 20.7 yuan/ton, a decline of 145.1% [13]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the caustic soda industry decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 88.5%. The total social inventory of PVC decreased by 0.7 tons to 51.1 tons, a decline of 1.3% [13]. Group 9: Methanol Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The methanol futures fluctuate narrowly. The port accumulates inventory significantly, while the inland market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, and the price fluctuates narrowly [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory - **Methanol Price and Spread**: On December 25th, the MA2601 closing price decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2129 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.23%. The MA15 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 33 yuan/ton, a decline of 13.16% [14]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of methanol increased by 1.28 tons to 40.397 tons, a growth rate of 3.28%. The port inventory increased by 19.37 tons to 141.3 tons, a growth rate of 15.89% [15]. - **Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: The operating rate of domestic upstream enterprises increased by 0.36 percentage points to 77.99%, while the operating rate of overseas upstream enterprises decreased by 3.47 percentage points to 60.5% [16]. Group 10: Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and the price will continue to fluctuate and bottom - out. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities after the rebound [19]. - **Glass**: The spot price continues to be under pressure, and the market is expected to continue to weaken and fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term [19]. Summary by Directory - **Related Price and Spread**: On December 26th, the North China quotation of glass decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1010 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.98%. The North China quotation of soda ash remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The operating rate of soda ash decreased by 1.91 percentage points to 82.74%. The factory inventory of soda ash increased by 0.5 tons to 149.93 tons, a growth rate of 0.33% [19]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year growth rate of the newly - started area of real estate decreased by 14.26 percentage points to - 29.25%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the completed area increased by 21.34 percentage points to - 0.28% [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Xinjinlu's stock has experienced significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 195.83% and a recent decline of 2.56% on December 25 [1] - As of December 10, Xinjinlu's shareholder count decreased by 10.81% to 50,500, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 12.12% to 12,024 shares [2] - Xinjinlu's main business revenue composition includes resin products (41.61%), alkali products (38.43%), and others (19.97%) [1] Group 2 - In the financial performance for January to September 2025, Xinjinlu reported an operating income of 1.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.82%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of -78.49 million yuan, a decrease of 129.38% [2] - Xinjinlu has cumulatively distributed dividends of 124 million yuan since its A-share listing, with no dividends distributed in the past three years [3] - The company operates in the basic chemical industry, specifically in the chlor-alkali sector, and is involved in various concept sectors including military information technology and aerospace [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views - PVC is affected by macro - sentiment and rebounds, with a slight improvement in supply - demand. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the improvement in supply - demand is limited. Attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro - policy dynamics [3] - The current spot price of caustic soda is mainly stable with regional differentiation. Shandong is destocking while Jiangsu is accumulating inventory. The supply - side operating rate is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine, device dynamics, and the implementation of specific macro anti - involution rules [4][5] Group 3: Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,781 yuan/ton (+43), the East China basis is - 301 yuan/ton (-3), and the South China basis is - 281 yuan/ton (+7) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,480 yuan/ton (+40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,500 yuan/ton (+50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (-30), the calcium carbide price is 2,780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+24), the production gross profit of PVC by calcium carbide method is - 986 yuan/ton (+116), the production gross profit of PVC by ethylene method is - 469 yuan/ton (+51), and the PVC export profit is - 6.0 US dollars/ton (-5.1) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 32.9 million tons (-1.6), the social inventory of PVC is 51.1 million tons (-0.7), the operating rate of PVC by calcium carbide method is 77.01% (-2.12%), the operating rate of PVC by ethylene method is 74.06% (-2.61%), and the overall operating rate of PVC is 76.12% (-2.27%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 76.2 million tons (+11.4) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,250 yuan/ton (+31), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 0 yuan/ton (-31) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,140 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,229 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 585.0 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 226.96 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 393.99 yuan/ton (+53.60) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 46.47 million tons (+0.76), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.51 million tons (+0.06), and the operating rate of caustic soda is 84.50% (-1.70%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina is 85.00% (-1.11%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 62.06% (-0.68%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber is 89.62% (+0.00%) [2] Group 4: Market Analysis PVC - Macro - level policies boost demand expectations, and PVC rebounds due to macro - sentiment. The supply decreases slightly, but the supply side is still abundant. The downstream operation declines slightly, and the export orders are resilient. The social inventory decreases slightly, and the upstream comprehensive chlor - alkali production profit is repaired to some extent. The high - level warehouse receipts suppress the futures price. Overseas factory news provides some support [3] Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with regional differences. Shandong is destocking and Jiangsu is accumulating inventory. The supply - side operating rate decreases slightly, but the overall operation is at a high level. The liquid chlorine price is positive, and there is a risk of further decline. The alumina demand is stable, and the non - aluminum demand weakens [4][5] Group 5: Strategies PVC - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [6] Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is in a situation of strong expectations and weak reality. In the short - term, SH2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with the range around 2100 - 2300. Due to relatively loose supply and weak downstream demand, liquid caustic soda factory inventories have accumulated. Although the supply of caustic soda is expected to be high in December, the negative factors cannot be realized in the short - term. The planned commissioning of alumina plants in the first half of 2026 gives some support to the long - term price. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2250 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the main contract position is 159,783 lots, down 5,156 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 19,516 lots, down 4,283 lots; the main contract trading volume is 492,973 lots, up 149,306 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2150 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2358 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 790 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The converted 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis is 0 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 247.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 643 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 200 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2,665 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 12th to 18th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. From December 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate decreased by 1.11% week - on - week to 85%. From December 12th to 18th, the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 89.62%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.69% week - on - week to 62.06%. As of December 18th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 1.66% and a year - on - year increase of 52.34%. From December 11th to 18th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 216 yuan/ton, an increase from the previous week [3] 3.7 Outlook - A 300,000 - ton unit in East China will restart this week, and a 160,000 - ton unit in Southwest China will be under maintenance. The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda is expected to increase slightly. There are few maintenance plans for chlor - alkali plants in winter, and the supply of caustic soda is expected to be high in December. The winter storage of aluminum plants downstream of alumina has ended and the raw material inventory is high, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry is expected to intensify. However, since enterprises have no large - scale inspection plans, the negative factors for caustic soda cannot be realized in the short - term. There are many alumina plants planned to be commissioned in the first half of 2026, which gives some support to the long - term price. Non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Chemical's stock has shown a mixed performance in recent trading, with a year-to-date increase of 9.05% and a recent uptick of 2.17% on December 24, 2023, indicating potential investor interest in the company [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Activity - As of December 24, 2023, Zhongtai Chemical's stock price reached 4.70 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.14 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.95%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.173 billion CNY [1]. - The net inflow of main funds was 10.19 million CNY, with large orders accounting for significant buy and sell activities, indicating active trading interest [1]. - The stock has experienced a 3.07% increase over the last five trading days, a slight decrease of 0.63% over the last 20 days, and a modest increase of 0.43% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Company Overview and Financial Performance - Zhongtai Chemical, established on December 18, 2001, and listed on December 8, 2006, is located in Urumqi, Xinjiang, and specializes in the production and sales of chemical products, including polyvinyl chloride resin and ion-exchange membrane caustic soda [1]. - The company's revenue composition includes polyvinyl chloride (39.69%), chlor-alkali products (14.99%), viscose yarn (14.83%), and other chemical products, indicating a diversified product portfolio [1]. - For the period from January to September 2025, Zhongtai Chemical reported a revenue of 21.246 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.55%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -179 million CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 48.51% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder and Dividend Information - Since its A-share listing, Zhongtai Chemical has distributed a total of 2.222 billion CNY in dividends, with 259 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders reached 90,300, with a slight increase of 0.22%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 0.22% to 28,515 shares [2]. - Notable new shareholders include Dongfanghong New Power Mixed A and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, indicating growing institutional interest [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Hangjin Technology has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.03%, while the company has faced a decline in stock price over the year and significant changes in shareholder composition [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 24, Hangjin Technology's stock price is 19.06 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 12.58 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has decreased by 0.21% year-to-date, increased by 2.86% over the last five trading days, but has dropped by 5.60% over the last 20 days and 17.35% over the last 60 days [1]. - The company has appeared on the trading leaderboard 12 times this year, with the most recent instance on February 25, where it recorded a net buy of -540.63 million CNY [1]. Group 2: Business Overview - Hangjin Technology, established on September 16, 1997, operates in the semiconductor electronics and basic chemical raw materials sectors [2]. - The revenue composition includes: electronic computing power (34.41%), liquid alkali (26.25%), other chemicals (10.89%), epoxy propane (10.63%), polyether (9.53%), electronic components (6.91%), and other electronics (1.38%) [2]. - The company is classified under the basic chemical industry, specifically chemical raw materials, and is associated with concepts such as integrated machine, DeepSeek, artificial intelligence, venture capital, and computing power [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hangjin Technology reported a revenue of 3.287 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 62.72% to 15.19 million CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 641 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 74.48 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Composition - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 5.16% to 124,100, with an average of 5,302 shares held per shareholder, a decrease of 4.91% [2]. - Notable shareholders include Penghua CSI Sub-Segment Chemical Industry Theme ETF, which is the fourth largest shareholder with 7.9641 million shares, and Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which has reduced its holdings by 715,690 shares [3].

2025 年 12 月 24 日 PVC：短期反弹空间或有限 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | PVC 基本面数据 | | | | | 01合约期货价格 | 华东现货价格 | 基差 | 1-5月差 | | 4450 | 4420 | -30 | -288 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货一口价成交为主，盘中价格受政策性气氛推动明显上涨，然市场刚需表现谨慎，采购积 极性欠佳，短期供需基本面双弱，成交信心不足，华东地区电石法五型现汇库提报价在 4400-4550 元/吨， 乙烯法僵持在 4450-4600 元/吨。 商 品 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【市场状况分析】 PVC 估值低位，虽然市场交易反内卷、政策端强调着力稳定房地产市场以及近月空头大规模止盈能带动 PVC 阶段性反弹，但这种反弹空间有限，主要因 PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变。冬季仍是氯碱 企业检修淡季，即 ...