1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 215 to close at 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 358 to close at 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 66 to close at 8,128 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.81%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 339 to close at 9,422 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.47%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 1.67 to close at 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 5.5 to close at 637.9 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.87% [4]. - Palm oil broke through support and continued to weaken. High - frequency data showed that the export demand for Malaysian palm oil slowed down in October while production maintained an upward trend. It is expected that the ending inventory at the end of October will accumulate more than expected, supply will become looser, and origin quotes will be lowered. In addition, Indonesia's production data was impressive, and its 2025 production is expected to maintain a large increase. Indonesia's B50 policy has been opposed by the mining industry, and due to factors such as funding constraints, the implementation time of the biodiesel policy may be postponed [4]. - Macroscopically, the Fed cut interest rates as expected in October, but there were large differences regarding a December rate cut, and the probability of a rate cut declined significantly. The US dollar index fluctuated upwards, and oil prices fluctuated. Fundamentally, the expectation of inventory accumulation for Malaysian palm oil at the end of October has increased. Attention should be paid to the upcoming MPOB report. Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025 has been impressive, supply is becoming looser, and the implementation time of the biodiesel policy is still uncertain. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Various contract price changes from October 24 to October 31 are presented. For example, the CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 50.29 to 48.62 cents/pound, a decline of 3.32%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell from 4,420 to 4,205 ringgit/ton, a decline of 4.86%; the DCE palm oil contract fell from 9,122 to 8,764 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.92%, etc. There are also data on spot prices and price differences between various oils [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production and export data: From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's single - yield, oil extraction rate, and production increased compared to the same period last month. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports in October show different growth rates. Indonesia's 2025 palm oil production is expected to increase by about 10% to 56 - 57 million tons, and exports are expected to be 30 - 31 million tons. In 2026, production is expected to increase by another 5%. In August, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly [8][9]. - Inventory data: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country increased compared to last week and the same period last year. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil in key regions across the country as of the week of October 31, 2025, increased compared to the previous week [10]. Industry News - The US will reduce tariffs on 1,711 Malaysian export products, including palm oil, to below 19%, which is expected to enhance the price competitiveness of Malaysian products in the US market [11]. - As of now in this fiscal year, India's palm oil planting area has reached 52,113 hectares, and the total planting area under the "National Mission on Edible Oils - Oil Palm" since its launch in August 2021 has reached 241,000 hectares [11]. - Malaysia's Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities aims to strengthen the downstream development of Sabah's palm oil industry, especially in biodiesel production. Sabah is Malaysia's largest crude palm oil - producing region, accounting for 22.1% of the country's total crude palm oil production in 2024 [12]. Relevant Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, price differences, inventory, and production and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia [14][17][19] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Palm oil is expected to continue its weak performance next week. In the long - term, after a bottom - seeking process, palm oil futures prices are likely to stabilize and rebound considering the upcoming seasonal production reduction cycle in the producing areas and the long - term support of biodiesel policies [32]. - The market is waiting for further clarification of the US biodiesel policy, and the overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From October 24 to October 31, 2025, the futures closing prices of palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil decreased by 3.92%, 3.47%, and 0.81% respectively. The corresponding spot prices decreased by 2.81%, 2.19%, and 0.48% respectively [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of October 30, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 184 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 314 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 22 yuan/ton (an increase of 38 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of October 31, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (an increase of 292 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 4.20 million tons (a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 60.71 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week), and the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 125.03 million tons (an increase of 2.63 million tons from the previous week). The total inventory of the three major oils was 189.94 million tons (an increase of 4.77 million tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply - side Analysis - **Palm Oil**: In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons. From October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.78% month - on - month. In August 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 1% to 2.543 million tons [16]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 9.731 million tons (a decrease of 0.153 million tons from the previous week), and the soybean inventory in major oil mills was 7.5129 million tons (a decrease of 0.1741 million tons from the previous week). The oil mill operating rate was 61% (an increase of 3% from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 604.90 yuan/ton (an increase of 7.1 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of October 24, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons (a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week). As of October 31, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2590.20 yuan/ton (a decrease of 480 yuan/ton from the previous week) [22]. Demand - side Analysis - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 1700 tons, and the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 8700 tons. The POGO spread was 368.49 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [27]. Three Major Oil Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The market is waiting for the US biodiesel policy to be further clarified. The overall situation of China - US trade negotiations is positive, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [29]. - Foreign Factors: Due to the US government shutdown, the USDA supply - demand report for this month was not released. The US soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the market supply pressure is emerging. Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of September increased by 7.2% month - on - month to 2.36 million tons, higher than the market expectation of 2.15 million tons. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association predicts that this year's palm oil production will increase by 10%, higher than the market expectation [29]. - Import and Pressing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 2 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous week [29]. - Inventory: As of October 24, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas decreased to 4.20 million tons, the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 60.71 million tons, and the national soybean oil inventory in oil mills increased to 125.03 million tons [29]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils all decreased. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 2.81%, that of soybean oil decreased by 0.48%, and that of rapeseed oil decreased by 2.19% [29]. Strategy Recommendation - **Palm Oil**: This week, palm oil futures fell 3.92%. Considering the increase in Malaysia's palm oil production and the call to halt Indonesia's B50 plan, the short - term outlook is weak, but in the long - term, it may rebound. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, soybean oil futures fell 0.81%. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, but the China - US relationship is optimistic. The domestic soybean inventory pressure is still large in the short - term, but the cost side has certain support. - **Rapeseed Oil**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fell 3.47%. The fundamentals have not changed much, and it has entered the de - stocking cycle. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - Canada trade relations [31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With good rapeseed production in Canada and good progress in soybean planting in Brazil, the overall supply is expected to remain loose in the future [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,828.00 yuan/ton, a change of -14 yuan or -0.16% compared to the previous day [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,168.00 yuan/ton, a change of +36.00 yuan or +0.44% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,529.00 yuan/ton, a change of +4.00 yuan or +0.04% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,690.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was P01 - 138.00, a change of +14.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,340.00 yuan/ton, a change of +60.00 yuan/ton or +0.72%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 172.00, a change of +24.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with no change, and the spot basis was OI01 + 371.00, a change of -4.00 yuan [1] Market News - In September 2025, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 1,007,389 tons, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month and 7.97% from the same period last year. Rapeseed oil production was 425,330 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.72%. Rapeseed meal production was 589,724 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.52% and a year - on - year increase of 8.32%. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season was 1,875,333 tons, rapeseed oil production was 792,629 tons, and rapeseed meal production was 1,104,666 tons [2] - The estimated soybean production in Paraná, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season is 21.96 million tons, higher than the September forecast of 21.94 million tons. The estimated first - crop corn production is 346,000 tons, higher than the September forecast of 340,000 tons. The estimated wheat production is 275,000 tons, higher than the previous month's forecast of 268,000 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain, causing the prices of edible oils to fluctuate and weaken [1] - The prices of the three major edible oils fluctuated and declined yesterday. The MPOA data showed that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan due to opposition from the mining association suppressed palm oil prices [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,842.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 116 yuan or - 1.29% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,132.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 50.00 yuan or - 0.61%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,525.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 205.00 yuan or - 2.11% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,690.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 170.00 yuan or - 1.92%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 152.00, a change of - 54.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,280.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 80.00 yuan/ton or - 0.96%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 148.00, a change of - 30.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 170.00 yuan or - 1.69%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 375.00, a change of + 35.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information Argentina's Soybean Sales - As of the week ending October 22, Argentine farmers sold 1.115 million tons of 2024/25 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 22.3379 million tons. Local oil mills purchased 665,700 tons, and the export industry purchased 449,300 tons. They also sold 38,100 tons of 2025/26 - season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 214,500 tons. Local oil mills purchased 34,500 tons, and the export industry purchased 3,600 tons. The total soybean sales for the week were 1.1927 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 63.1325 million tons. As of October 22, the cumulative export sales registration of 2024/25 - season soybeans was 4.818 million tons, and that of 2025/26 - season soybeans was 0 tons [2] China's Soybean Purchase from the US - On October 29, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said that China made its first purchase of soybeans from the US this harvest season, after zero imports from the US in September. The spokesman referred specific questions to the relevant Chinese authorities [2] International Commodity Prices - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) was $516/ton, up $7/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) was $527/ton, up $7/ton. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was $1,163/ton, up $7/ton; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (January shipment) was $1,159/ton, up $9/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was $1,140/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (January shipment) was $1,120/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (December shipment) was $489/ton, up $3/ton; the C&F price of US West Coast soybeans (December shipment) was $480/ton, up $5/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) was $489/ton, up $1/ton. The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, unchanged; the import soybean premium for the US West Coast (December shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel; the import soybean premium for Brazilian ports (December shipment) was 240 cents/bushel, down 6 cents/bushel [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - The prices of the three major oils were fluctuating weakly yesterday. The increase in Malaysian palm oil production and a slight decrease in exports are expected to lead to continued inventory accumulation in October, exerting certain pressure on the palm oil futures market [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 8,958.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 142 yuan or -1.56% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,182.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.00 yuan or -0.63%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,730.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.00 yuan or -0.18% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,860.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140.00 yuan or -1.56%, with a spot basis of P01 + -98.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan compared to the previous day; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan/ton or -0.71%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 178.00, a decrease of 8.00 yuan compared to the previous day; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,070.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan or -0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 340.00, a decrease of 2.00 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Palm Oil Production and Export - According to SPPOMA data, from October 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.78% compared to the same period last month. According to ITS, SGS, and Amspec data, the estimated palm oil export volume from Malaysia from October 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by -0.36%, increased by 23.8%, and decreased by -0.27% respectively compared to the same period last month [2] - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) stated on Tuesday that Indonesia's palm oil inventory in August decreased slightly to 2.54 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month. The decrease in production offset the decrease in export volume. In August, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 3.47 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from the previous month, and the crude palm oil production was 5.06 million tons. Due to favorable weather conditions, GAPKI expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by 10% in 2025 [2] Agricultural Situation in China - According to the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the agricultural and rural economy in the first three quarters generally maintained stable operation. The annual grain output is expected to have another good harvest. Summer grain production was stable and achieved a good harvest, with a yield of 299.48 billion catties. Early rice production increased, with a yield of 57.03 billion catties, an increase of 0.68 billion catties or 1.2% compared to the previous year. The area of autumn grain increased, especially the area of high - yielding corn increased significantly. In most agricultural areas this year, the light, temperature, and water conditions were favorable, and the autumn grain production situation in the three northeastern provinces, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang was relatively good. Recently, local areas have carefully organized the autumn grain harvest, and more than 85% of the harvest has been completed. Efforts have been made to deal with the continuous rainy weather in the Huanghuaihai region, and all - out efforts have been made to harvest and dry the grains to minimize the impact of disasters. The achievements of soybean and oilseed expansion have been continuously consolidated. It is expected that the soybean planting area will remain above 150 million mu for four consecutive years, and the output will continue to remain above 20 million tons; the area, yield per unit, and total output of summer oilseeds have all increased [2]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Short - term, weak market conditions suppress the upward momentum of the oil market, and the short - term market will run weakly. Wait for the final US energy policy in November to see if it can boost the oil market and further news about Indonesia's B50 plan. Strategy: stay on the sidelines. There may be a bottom - fishing opportunity for palm oil after it stabilizes [1][2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 1.1 Core Contradiction - Palm oil: In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season, with a production increase of over 10%. In Indonesia, the B50 plan faces uncertainties, and the future demand for palm oil is in doubt. However, due to the transfer of plantation ownership, production may be limited, and the B40 plan at the end of the year supports the price [1]. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. The US government shutdown has disrupted the acquisition of key agricultural data. The relatively optimistic progress of Sino - US trade talks boosts US soybeans, making soybean oil relatively resistant to decline [1]. - Domestic market: The overall supply of the three major domestic oils is sufficient and under short - term pressure. After the Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations ease, the import of oilseeds may increase, alleviating supply concerns [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestion - Trend judgment: Short - term weak adjustment, medium - term wide - range oscillation. - Price range: P2601 oscillates between [8800 - 9700], Y2601 between [8000 - 8500], and OI between [9500 - 10300]. - Technical analysis: Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. - Basis strategy: Consider using accumulated options to reduce basis pricing risks. - Spread strategy: For P1 - 5, consider a reverse spread strategy. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil widens, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrows [23]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestion - Price range prediction: Soybean oil: 8000 - 8700; rapeseed oil: 9500 - 10300; palm oil: 8800 - 9700. - Hedging strategy: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures; refiners with low inventories can buy soybean oil futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean oil futures [24]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil was - 240 yuan/ton. - Soybean oil: Futures prices of different contracts mostly rose, and the basis of Shandong first - grade soybean oil was 116 yuan/ton. - Rapeseed oil: Futures prices of different contracts declined, and the basis of East China rapeseed oil was 302 yuan/ton [25][26][27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Three major Indonesian palm oil producers have reduced fertilizer use and maintenance, which may lower future production. A plantation's monthly fresh fruit bunch production has dropped significantly [30]. - Bearish information: On October 24, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils reached 261 million tons, at a high level in recent years. Sino - US trade consultations made initial progress. Multiple mining associations in Indonesia are requesting the cancellation of the B50 plan. Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased slightly in August, and production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025 [31]. - Spot trading information: The trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and rapeseed oil had almost no trading [32]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress of the US small refinery exemption re - allocation decision, progress of Sino - US trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [40]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: This week, there was more bearish information in the oil market, and the market continued to weaken. However, due to uncertainties such as the US energy policy and the approaching production - reduction season, the downward space is limited [39]. - Capital flow: In palm oil, the long and short positions are in a stalemate; in soybean oil, long positions increased significantly; in rapeseed oil, long positions increased slightly [39]. - Basis structure: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out, and the palm oil basis turned negative. - Spread structure: The oil market shows a Back structure, which has become shallower this week. The 1 - 5 spread has slightly recovered, and the concern about the far - month contracts has weakened [41]. - Price spread structure: This week, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil strengthened, the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil weakened slightly, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil changed little [49]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads both declined, and the overall cost of bio - fuel production decreased slightly. The cost of palm - based biodiesel decreased to a limited extent, while the cost of US soybean - based biodiesel remained low [56]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. After a slight improvement in cost prices, they weakened again, and the sentiment of domestic buyers is expected to remain stable [58]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In September, the decline in Malaysian palm oil production was less than expected, and the inventory exceeded expectations. In October, production increased month - on - month, breaking the previous expectation of an early entry into the production - reduction season. Pay attention to the inventory - reduction progress in the origin [61]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - Palm oil: With weak demand and high costs, traders' purchasing willingness is low. During the production - reduction season at the end of the year, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively limited. - Soybean oil: The arrival of soybeans from October to November is high, and the supply in the fourth quarter will be sufficient, but the supply pressure may weaken in December. - Rapeseed oil: The current domestic inventory is high, and demand is limited. However, the inventory may decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be a supply shortage from the end of the year to the first quarter of next year if Sino - Canadian relations do not improve [63]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is high, and demand is weak. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the market boost is limited, and overall terminal demand will remain weak [65].

Report Title - "Grease Weekly Market Observation" [1] Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term due to factors such as higher-than-expected production in Malaysia, slower export growth, potential inventory accumulation, and uncertain Indonesian biodiesel policies [33] - Soybean oil is likely to experience short - term oscillations. Uncertainty in US biodiesel policies and the potential resumption of soybean trade between China and the US are key factors, along with high domestic inventory [33] - Rapeseed oil is also expected to have short - term oscillations. Tensions in China - Canada relations, low domestic rapeseed inventory, and potential supply relief from Australian rapeseed are important considerations [33] Market Review - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, 3 million tons higher than the current B40 policy, and the exportable supply will drop significantly [4] - The US government shutdown has suspended the release of key information, and attention should be paid to US biodiesel policies and Sino - US relations [4] - Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% by March 2026, which may affect soybean crushing demand [5] - In the 11th week of the 2025/26 season, Canada's rapeseed export slowed down, with exports of 124,000 tons in the week ending October 19 [5] Fundamental Observation Supply - As of October 24, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million tons [7] Demand - As of October 24, the total transaction volume of 24 - degree palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 7,032 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,799 tons [8] - As of October 24, the domestic soybean oil transaction volume was 66,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons [8] - As of October 24, the pick - up volume of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 14,510 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,600 tons [8] Inventory - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 607,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,400 tons, or 5.45% [9] - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1,250,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons, or 2.15% [9] - The rapeseed oil inventory was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons, or 2.72% [9] Cost and Profit - As of October 24, the CIF price of Malaysian palm oil was $1,094 per ton, the import cost was 9,332 yuan per ton, and the hedging profit for November and December shipments was negative [10] Production and Trade - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 10.77%. From October 18 - 24, 4 new palm oil purchase ships and 1 wash - out ship were added in China [11] - As of October 24, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3674 million tons, the operating rate was 65.13%, and the soybean oil production was 449,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,200 tons [11] Spot Prices - As of October 24, the spot price of Zhangjiagang's fourth - grade soybean oil was 8,240 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 140 yuan per ton [13] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan per ton [13] - The spot price of Nantong's fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,090 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan per ton [13] Malaysia's Palm Oil Situation Production - In September 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.8412 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73%. From October 1 - 20, production is estimated to increase by 10.77% [15] Inventory - In September, the inventory was 2.361 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.2%, and at a high level year - on - year [16] Export - In August, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.4276 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. From October 1 - 20, export volume increased compared to the same period in September [17] Consumption - Malaysia's domestic palm oil consumption was 333,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.21% [17] India's Palm Oil Import - In September, India's palm oil import volume dropped to a four - month low, with 829,000 tons imported, a month - on - month decrease of 161,500 tons, or 16.31% [19] Domestic Palm Oil Situation - In September, domestic palm oil import volume was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 190,000 tons [21] - In September, palm oil demand was 251,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 122,700 tons [23] - As of October 24, the import profit of 24 - degree palm oil was - 184 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 69 yuan per ton [26] Domestic Soybean Oil Situation - As of October 24, the oil mill operating rate rose to 65.13%, and soybean oil production was 449,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,200 tons [28] - As of October 24, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1,250,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [29] - In September, soybean oil export volume was 51,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,300 tons [29] Domestic Rapeseed Oil Situation - As of October 24, the rapeseed oil production of coastal oil mills was 0.45 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory was 536,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 tons [31]

Summary of Palm Oil Industry Analysis and Price Outlook Industry Overview - The palm oil industry is primarily dominated by Malaysia and Indonesia, which together account for approximately 80% of global production. [1][2] - The aging of palm trees in Malaysia is expected to lead to a reduction in annual production by 40,000 to 560,000 tons over the next decade. [1][2] Key Points and Arguments - **Production Capacity**: Both Malaysia and Indonesia are nearing peak production levels, with Malaysia producing around 20 million tons and Indonesia about 55 million tons annually. [2] - **Biodiesel Policies**: Indonesia's biodiesel policies (B20, B30, B40) have significantly increased domestic palm oil consumption from 10 million tons to over 20 million tons annually. However, the B50 plan faces challenges due to traditional engine compatibility. [1][2] - **Market Dynamics**: The palm oil price is influenced by seasonal production, policy changes, and raw material costs. Long-term supply-demand fundamentals suggest an overall upward price trend, with biodiesel being the main source of demand growth. [1][5] - **Price Forecasts**: - In Q4 2025, palm oil prices are expected to be weak due to insufficient production cuts and weakened consumption expectations from delayed biodiesel policies. [6][12] - In Q1 2026, prices are anticipated to rise due to seasonal production cuts and the implementation of biodiesel policies, potentially reaching higher levels. [7][12] Additional Important Insights - **Weather Impact**: Weather phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña significantly affect palm oil production. The last El Niño in 2023 caused drought conditions that may impact future production. [8][11] - **Current Market Conditions**: The market is currently experiencing high inventory levels due to preemptive purchasing by China and India, leading to a lack of demand growth. [12][10] - **International Price Dynamics**: The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil is currently negative but is expected to improve as market conditions stabilize. [13] - **Biodiesel Market Challenges**: The B40 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is operational but faces financial losses, and the B50 plan may encounter execution challenges. [14][15] - **US Policy Impact**: The new EPA policy in the US is expected to boost biodiesel demand, which could positively influence palm oil prices. [16] - **Global Market Trends**: The palm oil market is likely to be influenced by geopolitical factors, such as the US-China trade war, which has affected the supply of competing oils like soybean oil. [20][21] Conclusion The palm oil industry is at a critical juncture, with production challenges and evolving demand dynamics driven by biodiesel policies and international market conditions. Future price movements will be closely tied to these factors, alongside weather impacts and geopolitical developments.

Report Title - Weekly Report on Oils and Fats: Poor High - frequency Data of Malaysian Palm Oil, Oils and Fats Oscillating Weakly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - High - frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased significantly in October while exports were poor, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. Palm oil lacks positive drivers and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential. Domestic soybean oil may experience slight de - stocking, and there is some support from exports. Domestic rapeseed oil continues to de - stock marginally, providing some support for its price [4][21]. Summary by Section 1. International Market 1.1 Malaysian Palm Oil - Production: MPOA data indicates a 11% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in the first 20 days of October. UOB expects the increase to be between 10% - 14%, and SPPOMA predicts a 2.71% increase compared to the same period last month. It is expected to slightly increase in October and be higher than the 5 - year average [7]. - Exports: ITS data shows a 0.4% decline in Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 25 days of October. Overall, exports in October are expected to be average and lower than the 5 - year average. The inventory in October is expected to reach 235 - 245 tons [7]. 1.2 Indonesian Palm Oil - Biodiesel consumption: In January - September 2025, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption was 10.57 million liters, nearly 10% more than the same period last year. The implementation of biodiesel this year is smooth but may not reach the target. - Policy: Indonesia plans to raise the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel to 50% in the second half of 2026. The predicted biodiesel target for next year is 17.55 - 17.85 million tons, with an increase in CPO of 1.8 - 2.1 million tons. However, some analysts expect the B50 policy to be postponed to 2027, which still disturbs the market [10]. 2. Domestic Market 2.1 Palm Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025 (Week 42), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 575,700 tons, a 5.13% increase from last week. It is currently at a slightly lower - than - average level in the same historical period. - Import: Palm oil imports were poor in September, only 190,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January - September were 2.25 million tons, at a historical low. The import profit inversion has narrowed to around - 120. It is expected that imports in October and November will exceed 200,000 tons. The basis is expected to be stable and weak. - Market outlook: In the short term, high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil is negative, and domestic palm oil is slightly accumulating inventory. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, but there is a long - term upward potential [13]. 2.2 Soybean Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1.224 million tons, a 3.25% decrease from last week. - Supply and demand: This week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.13%. Spot transactions were weak, and there were reports of small - scale exports to India. In the future, as soybean arrivals and crushing decrease, inventory may slightly de - stock, but overall supply is sufficient. - Market outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying on dips for the 05 contract [16]. 2.3 Rapeseed Oil - Inventory: As of October 17, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 549,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons. It is still at a high level in the same historical period but is continuously de - stocking. - Supply and demand: This week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 11,000 tons, with an operating rate of 2.93%. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil increased to around $1100, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 900. Rapeseed oil imports were relatively stable, while rapeseed imports decreased significantly to 115,000 tons. - Market outlook: The overall upward momentum of oils and fats is weak. The rapeseed oil market may fluctuate due to changes in rapeseed purchases and crushing. The current fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the continuous marginal de - stocking still supports the price [19]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Oils and fats are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see for now. Consider going long on dips after the market stabilizes. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to close at 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to close at 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to close at 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to close at 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to close at 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the ICE rapeseed active contract rose 1.4 to close at 632.4 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.22% [4][7] - Palm oil oscillated and declined during the week mainly due to the month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production. High - frequency data showed that the month - on - month increase in export demand narrowed, and demand weakened after the Indian Diwali festival. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will continue to build up inventory in October, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Additionally, the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy cooled, and its implementation is expected to be postponed, resulting in limited driving forces. Meanwhile, the US sanctions on Russia led to a sharp rebound in oil prices at a low level, providing some support for oils and fats [4][7] - Macroscopically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached a preliminary consensus, easing trade sentiment; the growth rate of the US core CPI in September slowed down, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice this year. The US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index continued to oscillate at a low level. The US sanctions on Russia led to supply concerns, and oil prices rose significantly at a low level on a weekly basis. Fundamentally, the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in October is expected to continue to increase, with loose supply putting downward pressure. Coupled with the cooling of the Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy theme and the possible postponement of its implementation, the Dalian palm oil oscillated and declined. As negative factors are gradually priced in, attention should be paid to the supply - demand changes in the producing areas after entering the off - season. Recently, the strengthening of oil prices has slowed down the decline of palm oil. It is expected that palm oil will operate in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [4][11] Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.81 to 50.29 cents/pound, a decline of 1.59%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 94 to 4,420 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.08%; the DCE palm oil 01 contract fell 186 to 9,122 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.00%; the DCE soybean oil 01 contract fell 62 to 8,194 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.75%; the CZCE rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 100 to 9,761 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong decreased by 250 to 9,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.70%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao decreased by 150 to 8,370 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang decreased by 120 to 10,000 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19% [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From October 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.45% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.24% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.71% month - on - month. According to MPOA data, Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 10.77%, with increases of 4.54% in Peninsular Malaysia, 21.99% in Sabah, 16.69% in Sarawak, and 20.45% in Borneo [8] - Exports: According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 25 were expected to be 1,283,814 tons, a decrease of 0.4%. According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 965,066 tons, a 2.5% increase compared to the same period last month. According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were expected to be 793,571 tons, a 41.75% increase compared to the same period last month [8][9] - Price forecast: MPOC stated that entering 2026, the price of Malaysian crude palm oil will remain above 4,400 ringgit/ton. Citigroup analyst Gan Huan Wen pointed out that Indonesia's plan to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026 is likely to be postponed to 2027 due to funding constraints and an unfavorable palm oil - diesel price spread. It is expected that the price of crude palm oil will hover between 4,300 and 4,500 ringgit/ton by the end of the year [9] - Inventory: As of the week of October 17, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3507 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 298,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.224 million tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 94,000 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 575,700 tons, an increase of 28,100 tons from the previous week and an increase of 59,800 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 145,000 tons from the same period last year [10] - Transaction volume: As of the week of October 24, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 13,300 tons, compared with 11,800 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 1,406 tons, compared with 847 tons in the previous week [10] Industry News - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure sufficient domestic supply for biodiesel production. Implementing B50 will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel per year, compared with 15.6 million kiloliters for B40 [12][13] - It is estimated that global vegetable oil demand in the 2025/26 season will reach a record high, with the total imports of eight major oils expected to increase by 3.1 million tons to 94.5 million tons. The main driving force for the increase in imports is the expected increase in global vegetable oil consumption by 6.1 million tons, more than twice that of the previous year. The biodiesel industries in the US, Indonesia, and Brazil have strong demand. Traditional major exporters such as India, Argentina, Brazil, and the US are expected to reduce their vegetable oil exports by 2.2 million tons. If Indonesia raises the blending requirement to 50%, it will significantly reduce the available palm oil for export, increasing the demand for soybean oil as a substitute [14] - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the amount of palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared to the current B40 policy, accounting for about 35% of Indonesia's palm oil production. The available supply for export will be 22 million tons or less. The global vegetable oil demand in the coming year will rely heavily on sunflower oil, as the available export supply of soybean oil in the US and Brazil is expected to decrease significantly from 2.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 1.6 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a 41% decrease [15] Relevant Charts - The report includes 22 charts showing the price trends, spreads, import profits, and inventory data of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the domestic commercial inventory of the three major oils [16][18][20][22][24][26][30][32][33][34][38][40][42][44][45][47][48][50][52][56][57]