油脂日报 | 2025-06-06 油脂结构调整，维持震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8126.00元/吨，环比变化-4元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7676.00元 /吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.16%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9152.00元/吨，环比变化+51.00元，幅度+0.56%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8480.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元，幅度-0.47%，现货基差P09+354.00，环比变化-36.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7880.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+204.00，环比变 化-8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9350.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.75%，现货基差OI09+198.00， 环比变化+19.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：USDA最新干旱报告显示，截至6月3日当周，约16%的美国大豆种植区域受到干旱影响，而此 前一周为17%。巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）基于船运计划数据预测，6月1日至7日期间，巴西大豆出口量为 490.1 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-05 中加代表会面，菜系进一步下行 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8130.00元/吨，环比变化-66元，幅度-0.81%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7688.00 元/吨，环比变化-4.00元，幅度-0.05%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9101.00元/吨，环比变化-171.00元，幅度-1.84%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8520.00元/吨，环比变化-130.00元，幅度-1.50%，现货基差P09+390.00，环比变化 -64.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7900.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元/吨，幅度-0.25%，现货基差Y09+212.00， 环比变化-16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9280.00元/吨，环比变化-170.00元，幅度-1.80%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化+1.00元。 风险 政策变化 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总：阿根廷豆油(6月船期)C&F价格1048美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油(8月船期)C&F 价格10 ...

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-04 中加贸易摩擦或有缓和，菜系价格承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8196.00元/吨，环比变化+136元，幅度+1.69%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7692.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.71%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9272.00元/吨，环比变化-76.00元，幅度-0.81%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+2.13%，现货基差P09+454.00，环比 变化+44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.89%，现货基差Y09+228.00， 环比变化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9450.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.84%，现货基差 OI09+178.00，环比变化-4.00元。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总： 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚5月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1069643吨，较 上月同期出口的8253 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-05-28 策略 中性 进口大豆库存回落，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8044.00元/吨，环比变化+90元，幅度+1.13%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7740.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.47%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9444.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8450.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.36%，现货基差P09+406.00，环比变 化-60.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.13%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9620.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.63%，现货基差 OI09+176.00，环比变化-2.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：中国粮油商务网数据显示，截止到2025年第21周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为90.0万吨，较 上周的92.9万吨减少2.9万吨，环比下降3.17%；合同量为11.6万吨，较上周的12.7万吨减 ...

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

油脂：市场紧张情绪缓和 油脂小幅回升 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 3、据外媒报道，咨询公司 Datagro 预估巴西 2024/25 年度大豆产量将达到 1.720 亿吨， 此前预测为 1.712 亿吨。预估巴西 2024/25 年度玉米产量为 1.327 亿吨，此前预测为 1.317 亿吨。 4、加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2025 年 04 月，加拿大 油菜籽压榨量为 919345.0 吨，环比降 10.27%；菜籽油产量为 390276.0 吨，环比降 10.5%； 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、上周我国菜油、棕榈油商业库存下降，豆油增加，三大油脂库存整体下降。5 月 23 日，三大油脂商业库存 185 万吨，周环比下降 1 万吨，月环比上升 8 万吨，同比上升 10 万 吨。其中豆油库存 70 万吨，周环比上升 6 万吨，月环比上升 10 万吨，同比下降 22 万吨； 菜籽油 79 万吨，周环比下降 2 万吨，月环比上升 2 万吨，同比上升 35 万吨；棕榈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Dalian Commodity Exchange's oilseed futures prices are weakening due to dual negative pressures, suggesting that Malaysian palm oil may further decline [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the current market conditions affecting oilseed futures, particularly the impact of external factors leading to price drops [1] - It suggests that the market may experience additional downward pressure, indicating a potential for further declines in palm oil prices [1]

棕榈油周报 2025 年 5 月 26 日 增库周期过程 棕榈油延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨13收于3825元/吨，涨幅0.34%； 棕榈油09合约涨22收于8006元/吨，涨幅0.28%；豆油09合 约涨20收于7774元/吨，涨幅0.26%；菜油09合约涨114收 于9391元/吨，涨幅1.23%；CBOT美豆油主连涨0.3收于 49.22美分/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Protein Meal - South American soybeans' impact on the market is gradually weakening. Brazilian soybeans mainly affect the market through the trend of Brazilian basis. In June, the high - temperature weather in the US continues, with excessive rainfall in the east and significantly lower - than - normal rainfall in the western part of the Midwest, which may damage soybean growth. CBOT soybeans will fluctuate between 950 - 1150 before variables change and may rise if variables occur. In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [1][124]. Oils - In June, there is a high possibility that US soybean oil will oscillate and decline from a high level due to the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in May, and there is a high risk of a market decline in June. Domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation in June, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [2][125][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market Review - In May, CBOT soybeans oscillated and closed higher. At the beginning of May, they showed a low - level oscillation trend. Later, positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export prospects, the tightening of new - year supply, and the increase in US biodiesel blending ratio pushed up the price. Domestic soybean meal was significantly weaker than the external market. International oils showed differentiated trends, with US soybean oil reaching a high and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil oscillating downwards. Domestic oils followed international oils but did not break out of the previous oscillation range [4][5]. Part Two: Protein Meal - **Global Soybean Production Forecast**: USDA's May report shows that the global soybean production is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year in the 25/26 season, with heavy supply pressure from South America. The supply pressure is most significant during the concentrated listing period of South American soybeans from May to June [9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: Argentina was affected by rainfall during the harvest period, which may reduce production. Brazilian soybean production is a foregone conclusion, and its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the Brazilian basis. The decline of Brazilian basis may slow down in June and may stop falling and stabilize [10][15][19]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In the 25/26 season, US soybean supply is tight, with low tolerance for yield reduction. The planting progress in 2025 is ahead of schedule, but the weather may be characterized by "flood in the east and drought in the west", which may damage soybean growth. US soybean exports and crushing demand in the 25/26 season have great uncertainties. Before variables change, CBOT soybeans will oscillate between 950 - 1150 and may rise if variables occur [26][29][40]. - **Domestic Protein Meal Situation**: In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [64]. Part Three: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: USDA estimates that the production and demand of US soybean oil will increase in the 25/26 season, but the market sentiment has changed from optimism to pessimism due to the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy. In June, US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level [66][69][74]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Since March, Malaysian palm oil production has been increasing. In May, production may exceed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. In June, production may slightly decline, and exports may increase. The market has a high risk of decline and needs export demand and biodiesel policies to boost [75][79][84]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: USDA estimates that the global rapeseed production will increase by 5% in the 25/26 season, and the supply will be better than that in the 24/25 season. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by nearly 4%, but the inventory is still at a low level, with limited tolerance for yield reduction [90][93]. - **Domestic Oils**: In June, domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [123]. Part Four: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: South American soybeans' impact on the market is weakening. In June, US weather may affect soybean growth, and there are uncertainties in US soybean exports and crushing demand. CBOT soybeans will oscillate in a range and may rise if variables occur. Domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and spot and basis prices may decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow US soybeans [124]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level in June. Malaysian palm oil has a high risk of decline. Domestic oils have an oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Lianpalmoil may oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to widen [125][126]. - **Operations**: For soybean meal, adopt low - level buying or selling put options. For palm oil, short at the upper limit of the range or sell call options. In arbitrage, go long on the soybean - palm oil spread and short on the oil - meal ratio [127][128][129].