上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月16日（周三）收盘下跌0.29%报772.2元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月16日（周三）收盘下跌0.5%报9109.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

Fundamental Analysis - The recent US inflation data showed a year-on-year CPI increase of 2.7% in June, the highest since February, slightly above the expected 2.6% and up from the previous 2.4% [1] - The core CPI also rose by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations but slightly higher than the previous 2.8% [1] - The market anticipates a 62% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with expectations of nearly two cuts by the end of the year [1] Trade Agreements - President Trump announced a significant trade agreement with Indonesia, which will eliminate tariffs on US imports and involve Indonesia purchasing over $10 billion worth of US goods [2] - The agreement includes Indonesia committing to buy $15 billion in US energy, $4.5 billion in US agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a recent peak at 3374.0 after starting from 3250.0, with a recent pullback but maintaining a higher trading focus [5] - The moving averages indicate a bullish trend for gold, suggesting a buy on dips strategy around the support level of 3320.0 [5] - Silver prices have also shown a bullish trend, with a recent high of 39.10 and a recommendation to buy on dips around 37.60 [9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the precious metals and industrial metals sectors, highlighting the performance and outlook for gold, silver, copper, and aluminum [1][2][3][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments Precious Metals - **Gold Price Outlook**: The gold price has shown a strong performance in the first half of the year, with expectations for continued strength in the second half due to ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures, including rising national debt and fiscal deficits [2][3]. - **Monetary and Financial Attributes**: The core drivers for gold's long-term performance are its monetary and financial attributes, which are expected to remain significant as U.S. debt and dollar credibility weaken [2][3]. - **Central Bank Support**: Global central banks' backing of gold reserves is anticipated to create a positive feedback loop supporting gold prices [3]. - **Silver Demand**: There is optimism for silver in the second half of the year, with a focus on its rigid supply and industrial applications, which are expected to drive price recovery [4][10]. Industrial Metals - **Copper and Aluminum Trends**: The copper market is expected to show strong price elasticity due to low inventory levels, while aluminum has also seen a recovery post-tariff adjustments [7][10]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply of aluminum is tightening, with production capacity growth limited, which may lead to price increases [9]. - **Electricity Investment**: Strong investment in electricity infrastructure is noted, contributing to demand resilience across various sectors, including appliances and automotive [6][9]. - **Energy Metals**: The prices of lithium and nickel products are currently low, but there is potential for a bottom reversal if supply constraints are addressed [10][11]. Additional Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The increase in tariffs is expected to contribute to inflationary pressures in the U.S., which may further support precious metals [2]. - **Global Inventory Levels**: Current global inventories are at historically low levels, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the future [7]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The call suggests focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and growth potential in the precious and industrial metals sectors [11]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Market Sentiment**: Despite short-term demand concerns, the overall supply rigidity in silver is expected to lead to a supply shortage, supporting price increases [4]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The concentration of supply in countries like Guinea may pose risks to the raw material supply chain, which should be monitored closely [8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the precious and industrial metals sectors.

各位投资者早上好我是这双金属分析师沈浩俊那么在关税之后我们一直强调的两条主线一条是黄金白银而贵金属第二条就是稀土瓷材整个板块那么稀土瓷材整个板块在上周迎来了比较强烈的行情养花补玉的涨价逻辑也在逐步的兑现当中那么今天我们就来详细聊聊 如何看待现阶段的稀土石材整个板块以及美国国防部入股MP可以说是美版的自主可控这件事那么在此之前我先按惯例来复排一下最新的一周行业的编辑变化以及 上周密集披露的中报预告有超预期和符合预期以及低预期的标题提示从整个行情表现来看的话年初到现在有色行情可以说是符合我们周末发的半年度策略报告的标题金属牛市那么最近一周的话 有编辑变化 我觉得就是国际金属铜铝这块特别是铜 特朗普对铜加了50%的关税那么后续怎么看待这个事 我觉得是这么看待的铺颗铝依然是现实层面很强只不过这个关税这事呢 影响到了需求 预期层面后续铜价的变化 我觉得 依赖于现阶段参谋会不会真的在8月1号去严格的去落实这个50%同的关税那么目前LME和COMEX同价的价差已经拉大到了27%换句话说之前市场普遍预期关税加25%的时候这个LME和COMEX的价差是在12%左右那么目前的话50%关税 中金黄金交通万方华有物业都是超预期的符合 ...

【要闻速递】 在全球投资者翘首期盼降息之际，美联储重量级人物洛根突然投下"震撼弹"。这位达拉斯联储主席当地 时间周二（7月15日）晚上最新表态揭示，美国可能将进入"超长利率平台期"，而背后暗藏三大博弈关 键。 在7月15日的重要演讲中，洛根明确抛出了"长期维持现有利率"的核心观点。她强调当前4.25%-4.5%的 利率区间必须保持"足够长的限缩性"，这个"一段时间"在华尔街解读中至少意味着6-12个月。其根本目 的在于确保通胀能真正稳定在2%目标线，而非目前2.3%的徘徊状态。 值得注意的是，洛根特别使用了"温和限缩性"这个微妙表述。这暗示美联储既不会进一步激进加息，但 也绝不会轻易松闸。就像给经济套上一个"不会窒息但必须保持节食"的紧身衣，这种精准调控背后是对 通胀死灰复燃的深度担忧。 【白银最新行情解析】 白银市场昨日开盘在38.094的位置后行情先拉升，日线最高触及到了38.374的位置后行情强势回落，日 线最低给到了37.564的位置后行情整理，日线最终收线在了37.685的位置后行情以一根上影线很长的中 阴线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，今日的行情延续空，点位上，今日38.1空止损38.3下方目标看37 ...

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 7 月 16 日星期三 | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 金属板块负责人：车红云 | | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 贵金属 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 【市场回顾】 | | | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，伦敦金在 CPI 数据公布后回吐日内涨幅，一度下破 3320 美元关 | | 研究员：王伟 | 口，最终收跌 0.58%，收报 3323.29 美元/盎司，为连续第二个交易日走低；伦敦银回落 | | 期货从业证号：F03143400 | 至 38 美元关口下方，最终收跌 1.12%，报 37.686 美元/盎司。受外盘影响，沪金主力合 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0022141 | 约收跌 0.42%，报 774.92 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 0.26%，报 9160 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数持续拉升，最终收涨 0.54%，报 98.62。 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 3.美债收益率：10 年期美债收益率攀升，收报 4.488 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, while silver is predicted to break through and rise [2][6]. - Copper prices are supported by the firm domestic spot market [2][10]. - Zinc is under pressure and expected to operate under stress [2][13]. - The downside for lead prices may be relatively limited [2][16]. - Tin prices are weakening [2][19]. - Aluminum is under pressure during the off - season, alumina will fluctuate within a range, and the operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining [2][23]. - The support from the nickel ore end has loosened, and global refined nickel is marginally accumulating inventory. Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors [2][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily and night - session fluctuations. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D showed different trends, with some increases and some decreases. Trading volumes, positions, ETF holdings, and inventories also had corresponding changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. The US Treasury Secretary said there was no need to worry about the deadline for suspending the imposition of some tariffs between the US and China, and the negotiation situation was good [5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold and silver is 1, indicating a relatively neutral - to - positive outlook [8]. 3.2 Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract declined slightly, while the London Copper 3M electronic disk rose slightly. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various spot - related price differences all changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There were also news about trade tariffs and copper trade activities [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. 3.3 Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Zinc main contract and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [13]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Lead main contract and the London Lead 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [16]. - **News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]. 3.5 Tin - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Shanghai Tin main contract and the London Tin 3M electronic disk both declined. Trading volumes, positions, inventories, and various price - related data had corresponding changes [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, there were news about the US CPI and trade - related events [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [22]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price - related data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all had different degrees of change. There were also data on inventories, production costs, and corporate profits [23]. - **Comprehensive News**: The US June core CPI data did not change the Fed's decision. There was also news about the US - China tariff negotiation situation [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and various price - related data of nickel and stainless steel futures had corresponding changes. There were also data on the industrial chain, such as the prices of high - nickel pig iron and the profit margins of nickel plate imports [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were news about the potential suspension of nickel exports from Canada to the US, the production status of nickel - related projects in Indonesia, and the environmental issues in the Indonesian nickel - mining area [26][27][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [31].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国恢复援助乌克兰并威胁制裁俄罗斯提振贵金属的避险需求，同时美元指 数在持续反弹至关键压力位附近时也小幅回调，避险需求以及计价货币因素推动 伦敦黄金偏强运行至 3360 美元/盎司附近，关注本周陆续公布的美国物价数据对 美联储降息预期的指引；隔夜投机资金推动伦敦白银突破 39 美元/盎司压力位， 但多头获利平仓也使得银价一度回调至 38 美元/盎司下方。特朗普 2.0 新政推动 全球政经格局加速重组且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振； ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月16日（周三）早盘盘初下跌0.45%报770.94元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月16日（周三）早盘盘初下跌0.27%报9130.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...

上海黄金交易所黄金T+D 7月15日（周二）晚盘收盘下跌0.45%报770.94元/克； 上海黄金交易所白银T+D 7月15日（周二）晚盘收盘下跌0.42%报9117.0元/千克。 黄金延期 白银延期 ...