Report Information - Report Title: Economic Pressure Emerges, Convergence of High Volatility in Stock Indexes - Company: Shanghai Orient Futures Co., Ltd., Orient Derivatives Research Institute - Analyst: Wang Peicheng, Senior Macro Analyst - Analyst Qualification: F03093911 (Practicing Qualification Number), Z0017305 (Investment Consulting Number) [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - In the fourth quarter, domestic economic pressure will increase, and the annual economic growth rate is expected to be 4.8 - 5%. The inflation trend is upward, with the PPI expected to be -1.9% and the CPI +0.5%. The fiscal deficit rate will continue to rise, and the government will increase spending. The transmission from loose money to loose credit in monetary policy is不畅, and the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates in the fourth quarter. The domestic economy is in a "great differentiation" stage, and the restart of the economic cycle depends on the repair of the private sector's balance sheet. A-share performance has been good since the third quarter, with large sector differentiation. The rise of A-shares is mainly driven by valuation, and the long-term valuation center is declining. The entry of the national team and technological breakthroughs provide positive expected returns for the stock market, and high-risk preference funds are the first to enter the market. In the fourth quarter, the volatility of stock indexes may decrease, and attention should be paid to the opportunities in sub - sectors and sub - industries [4][7][14][62][69] Summary by Directory Fourth - Quarter Domestic Macroeconomic Outlook - **Economic Growth**: Domestic economic indicators have declined significantly since June. The demand - side indicators of social retail and fixed - asset investment are both below 5%, and fixed - asset investment has been negative for three consecutive months. Due to the high GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the growth rate in the fourth quarter of this year will be suppressed. The annual economic growth rate is expected to be 4.8 - 5% [7] - **Inflation**: The anti - involution policy's impact on inflation is still in the early stage. Upstream resource industries have improved the most, while mid - and downstream manufacturing industries have shown no obvious improvement. In the fourth quarter, the inflation trend is upward. The narrowing of the tail - end factor forms a low - base effect, the anti - involution policy promotes the marginal improvement of PPI, and consumer subsidies and the winter tourism season boost CPI. The expected PPI in the fourth quarter is -1.9%, the CPI is +0.5%, and the deflator is -0.7%, an increase of about 0.75% compared with the third quarter [8][14] - **Fiscal Policy**: The domestic economy still relies on fiscal support. As of August, fiscal revenue growth has turned positive, and expenditure growth remains high. The average generalized deficit rate in the third quarter was 9.37%, an increase of 0.37% compared with the second quarter. The government bond financing is an important support for fiscal expenditure. The issuance of national bonds this year is earlier, with 1 - 9 months' net financing of 5.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 72.4% of the annual total. The issuance of local bonds is slower, with only 68% of the annual progress completed in the first three quarters, leaving room for acceleration in the fourth quarter. Fiscal expenditure is tilted towards the people's livelihood and consumption fields, and the policy concept is transforming to "investing in people", with the policy structure tilting towards the "demand side" [15][26][30] - **Monetary Policy**: The transmission from loose money to loose credit is不畅. The growth rate of social financing excluding government bonds in the first eight months was only about 6%, and the credit balance growth rate has dropped to 6.8%. There is still a strong need for interest rate cuts. On the one hand, the current loose money in the country has a weak driving effect on credit expansion. On the enterprise side, the real return rate is still declining, and the housing mortgage rate is still relatively high. In the fourth quarter, monetary policy will cooperate with fiscal policy, be precise and targeted. The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates to provide liquidity, and 50 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments will be accelerated for establishment and investment [31][38][50] - **Economic Structure**: The domestic economy is in a "great differentiation" stage, with significant differences in nominal and real growth rates at the aggregate level, cycle fluctuations and structural growth at the structural level, and growth rates between traditional and new industries at the industrial level. The restart of the economic cycle depends on the repair of the private sector's balance sheet. Currently, the inventory cycle has a long duration but low height, and the cycle is flattened due to the real - estate market and private - enterprise cash - flow pressure [51][56][57] Fourth - Quarter Stock Index Outlook - **Overall Performance**: Since the third quarter, A - shares have truly outperformed the global market. Although the macro - environment has fluctuated greatly this year, global stock markets have performed well, and A - shares have achieved excess returns since the third quarter [65][69] - **Sector Differentiation**: The trading volume of A - shares has increased, with the 5 - day average turnover exceeding 3 trillion yuan, but it has declined since September. There is large differentiation among sectors, with the difference between the best - performing ChiNext Index and the worst - performing SSE 50 Index reaching nearly 40% [76] - **Deviation from Fundamentals**: The rise of global stock markets is supported by fundamentals, such as the upward - trending manufacturing PMI in four continents. However, China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line since April, and macro - indicators have declined in the second quarter. Historically, A - share bull markets have been accompanied by fundamental repairs, and the current ROE of the whole A - share market is flat, while that of the ChiNext and Sci - tech Innovation Board is rebounding [80][85] - **Driving Factors**: The rise of A - shares is mainly driven by valuation. In the third quarter, the expected price - to - earnings ratio has risen significantly and returned to the 2021 level, while the expected profit level has been revised down after the earnings season. In the long term, the valuation center of A - shares is declining, and short - term valuation increases will lead to a greater return to fundamentals in the medium term [86][96] - **Positive Factors**: The entry of the national team and technological breakthroughs in the technology industry provide positive expected returns for the stock market. Residents have about 44.3 trillion yuan in excess deposits. The entry of residents' deposits into the stock market is in the early stage, and high - risk preference funds are the first to enter, such as margin - trading funds. The abnormal increase in non - bank deposits and the rapid expansion of margin - trading balances occurred from July to August [97][108] - **Outlook and Strategy**: In September, the A - share market fluctuated at a high level, and the sector differences further widened. In the fourth quarter, the stock index is in a high - valuation area, and more funds are needed to maintain its strength. The national team will control market fluctuations. The volatility of the stock market will decrease in the fourth quarter, and opportunities in sub - sectors and sub - industries may be boosted by the "15th Five - Year Plan". The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to range from 3674 to 4000 points, corresponding to a space of about [-4%, +4%]. For hedging, short - hedging positions can be gradually opened; for unilateral trading, IF, IC, and IM should be evenly allocated; for arbitrage, a combination of long IM and short IF/IC can be selected [118]

每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵司在转向系统核心技术上，有没有突破性的新成 果？ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 浙江世宝（002703.SZ）9月26日在投资者互动平台表示，公司专注汽车转向技术超40年，目前已具备全 系列车型电动转向及智能转向技术，可适配L3+自动驾驶。 ...

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 天眼查资料显示，安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司，成立于1999年，位于合肥市，是一家以从事汽车制 造业为主的企业。企业注册资本218400.9791万人民币。通过天眼查大数据分析，安徽江淮汽车集团股 份有限公司共对外投资了48家企业，参与招投标项目5000次，财产线索方面有商标信息946条，专利信 息5000条，此外企业还拥有行政许可667个。 国家知识产权局信息显示，安徽江淮汽车集团股份有限公司取得一项名为"一种智能辅助制动系统测试 装置及方法"的专利，授权公告号CN119374874B，申请日期为2024年09月。 ...

Group 1 - The scale of public funds in China has surpassed 36 trillion yuan, reaching 36.25 trillion yuan by the end of August, with a monthly increase of 1.18 trillion yuan [1] - Stock funds increased by nearly 630 billion yuan in August, while mixed funds grew by over 330 billion yuan [1] - The scale of money market funds and QDII funds increased by 196.3 billion yuan and 67.2 billion yuan, respectively, while bond funds saw a slight decrease of 28.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The digital RMB international operation center officially commenced operations, launching three major business platforms: cross-border digital payment, blockchain service, and digital asset platforms [1] - The Ministry of Commerce of China has added three US entities to the export control list, prohibiting dual-use items from being exported to them [2] - An anti-dumping investigation has been initiated against imported pecans from Mexico and the US due to evidence of dumping behavior affecting domestic prices [2] Group 3 - As of the end of August, there were 1.154 billion 5G mobile phone users in China, accounting for 63.4% of total mobile phone users, with 4.646 million 5G base stations [3] - The three major stock exchanges announced the holiday trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with a market closure from October 1 to October 8 [3] - The China Securities Association is seeking opinions on a new guideline for stress testing of securities company trading settlement systems [3] Group 4 - The Hong Kong dollar has recently experienced its strongest 30-day appreciation since 2003, driven by changes in the currency market and strong performance in the Hong Kong stock market [4] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 4.835 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation and a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on September 25, resulting in a net injection of 296.5 billion yuan [5] - Xiaomi launched its 17 series smartphones starting at 4,499 yuan, featuring the fifth-generation Snapdragon 8 processor and a 7,000 mAh battery [5] - Chery Automobile successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising 9.14 billion HKD, marking the largest IPO for a car company in the Hong Kong market this year [5] Group 6 - The stock of Upwind New Materials will be suspended from trading starting September 26 due to multiple instances of abnormal trading fluctuations [6] - The US stock market saw a collective decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% and the Nasdaq down 0.5%, while Oracle and Tesla experienced significant drops [6] Group 7 - Chinese residents are expected to direct more savings towards financial investments, particularly in high-quality projects aligned with national strategic directions [7] - Two banks are set to distribute cash dividends, with Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank announcing a payout of 0.241 yuan per share totaling 2.324 billion yuan, and Changsha Bank announcing a payout of 0.20 yuan per share totaling 804 million yuan [7]

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on September 25, 2023, marking a significant milestone in its 21-year journey since its first IPO attempt in 2004, and becoming the largest IPO of a car company in Hong Kong in 2025 [1] Group 1: Listing Details - Chery's stock was issued at HKD 30.75 per share, raising approximately HKD 9.145 billion [1] - The stock opened at HKD 34.2 per share, an increase of 11.22% from the issue price, and closed at HKD 31.92, up 3.8%, with a market capitalization reaching HKD 184.1 billion [1] Group 2: Sales Performance - In 2024, Chery's passenger vehicle sales are projected to grow by 49.4%, leading among the top twenty global passenger vehicle companies [2] - Chery is the only company among the top twenty to achieve over 25% growth in sales across all categories: new energy vehicles, fuel vehicles, domestic, and overseas markets [2] - The company has maintained its position as the top exporter of passenger vehicles among Chinese brands for 22 consecutive years [2] Group 3: Financial Growth - Chery's revenue increased from CNY 92.618 billion in 2022 to CNY 269.897 billion in 2024, while net profit rose from CNY 5.806 billion to CNY 14.334 billion during the same period [2] - In Q1 2025, Chery reported revenue of CNY 68.223 billion and a net profit of CNY 4.726 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 90.9% [2] Group 4: Future Strategy - The listing is seen as a new starting point for Chery to enhance its global competitive advantage, with plans to leverage capital for technological innovation and global expansion [3] - The fundraising plan allocates 35% for developing various passenger vehicle models, 25% for next-generation vehicles and advanced technologies, 20% for expanding overseas markets, and 10% for enhancing production facilities and working capital [3] Group 5: Industry Impact - Chery's successful listing symbolizes the rise of the Anhui automotive industry, which produced 1.4995 million vehicles in the first half of the year, including 730,900 new energy vehicles, leading the nation [4] - The listing is expected to strengthen the global competitiveness of the Anhui automotive sector [5]

证券代码：600686 证券简称：金龙汽车 公告编号：2025-064 厦门金龙汽车集团股份有限公司 (三)出席会议的普通股股东和恢复表决权的优先股股东及其持有股份情况： ■ (四)表决方式是否符合《公司法》及《公司章程》的规定，大会主持情况等。 2025年第四次临时股东大会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 本次会议是否有否决议案：无 一、会议召开和出席情况 (一)股东大会召开的时间：2025年9月25日 (二)股东大会召开的地点：厦门市湖里区湖里大道69号公司一楼第一会议室 本次会议由公司董事会召集，董事陈炜先生主持会议，会议召集和召开程序、 表决方式符合《公司 法》和《公司章程》的有关规定。 (五)公司董事、监事和董事会秘书的出席情况 1、公司在任董事6人，出席2人，董事陈锋、温桂香，独立董事叶盛基、赵蓓因公务未能出席本次会 议； 2、公司在任监事3人，出席0人，郑琳、黄学敏、王学舟因公务未能出席本次会议； 3、董事会秘书季晓健出席本次会议，公司高级管理人员列席本次会议。 二、议 ...

Core Viewpoint - Seres is preparing for an IPO in Hong Kong, having received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with plans to issue up to 331 million shares and raise over $1 billion for various strategic initiatives [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - Seres plans to issue no more than 331 million ordinary shares for its overseas listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1]. - The company aims to raise over $1 billion, with 70% of the net proceeds allocated for R&D, 20% for diversifying marketing channels and enhancing global brand awareness, and 10% for working capital and general corporate purposes [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Seres reported a net profit of 5.946 billion yuan last year, marking its first profit in five years [3]. - The company's total liabilities reached 82.458 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 87.22%, with a debt ratio of 87.38% [4]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding its international market presence by localizing high-end brands and developing international electric vehicle models that meet local standards [3]. - Seres has been actively acquiring assets, including the purchase of the AITO brand and related patents for 2.5 billion yuan, and investing 11.5 billion yuan for a 10% stake in Shenzhen Yiwang Intelligent Technology [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift in focus of the "anti-involution" policy towards regulating local government behavior, contrasting with the previous emphasis on supply-side structural reforms in 2015 [1][8][84] - The recent "anti-involution" competition is characterized by local governments creating policy gaps, blindly launching projects, and setting market barriers, which has led to a significant increase in local government involvement in economic activities [1][15][84] Group 2 - The current "involution" competition involves industries where demand is generally improving or stable, with sectors like electrical machinery showing better revenue and fixed asset growth from 2021 to 2024 compared to 2017 to 2020 [2][84] - The automotive industry has experienced a dramatic regional shift, with traditional production areas declining while new energy vehicle production in provinces like Guangdong and Anhui has surged [22][84] Group 3 - Local governments are under pressure to find new growth drivers due to the downturn in the real estate market, with national commodity housing sales down 39.7% and real estate investment down 27.3% from 2021 to 2024 [3][28][84] - The reliance on land finance has decreased, leading local governments to focus on high-tax industries such as manufacturing and wholesale retail, which accounted for 32% and 14% of total tax revenue in 2021, respectively [3][36][84] Group 4 - The "anti-involution" measures may include short-term central government actions to clean up illegal policies and long-term guidance for local governments to establish correct performance views [4][78][85] - Local governments are competing through tax incentives and other policies to attract industries, resulting in significant disparities in manufacturing tax burdens across provinces, with the overall manufacturing tax burden in 2023 being 17.4% [6][69][84]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the fourth-generation CS55PLUS by Changan Automobile aims to redefine product value through intelligent cockpit and driving assistance systems, rather than competing directly with other brands [1] Product Details - The official price range for the fourth-generation CS55PLUS is between 92,900 yuan and 109,900 yuan [1] - The dimensions of the vehicle are 4550mm in length, 1868mm in width, and 1675mm in height [1] - The vehicle features the Changan Tian Shu intelligent driving assistance system, 540-degree high-definition panoramic imaging, and 18 intelligent warning and braking functions [1] - It incorporates an AI voice model connected to DeepSeek, allowing for free dialogue and encyclopedic Q&A [1] - The vehicle is powered by the new Blue Whale engine [1] Market Positioning - The CS55 series has undergone four generations over the past eight years, maintaining a user-centric approach [1] - The CS55 series is present in 55 countries globally, with production bases established in 9 countries, and has achieved cumulative global sales exceeding 1 million units [1] - As part of Changan's "Haina Baichuan" and "Beidou Tian Shu" global strategy, the CS55 series is the best-selling and most widely covered model for Changan in overseas markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chery Automobile Co., Ltd. has successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a significant milestone as the largest IPO for an automotive company in Hong Kong since 2025, and indicating its entry into the international capital market [2][4]. Summary by Sections IPO Details - Chery's IPO involved a global offering of 297 million H-shares at an issue price of HKD 30.75 per share, raising approximately HKD 9.145 billion [4]. - The listing attracted 13 cornerstone investors, including notable institutions such as Hillhouse Capital and Jinglin Asset, reflecting strong confidence in the company's future [4]. - On the first trading day, Chery's shares opened at HKD 34.2, representing an increase of 11.22% from the issue price [4]. Leadership Statements - Chairman Yin Tongyue expressed gratitude to various stakeholders during the listing celebration, emphasizing the collective support that has driven Chery's growth from humble beginnings to a publicly listed company [6][9]. - He highlighted that the IPO represents a new starting point for Chery, aiming not only for commercial success but also for social value contributions [9]. Future Strategy and Growth - Chery plans to leverage capital to accelerate technological innovation and enhance its global presence, with a commitment to becoming a leader in the intelligent mobility ecosystem [9]. - The company aims to foster the growth of other enterprises, contributing to the vitality of the industry ecosystem [9]. Performance Metrics - Since its establishment in 1997, Chery has focused on industry innovation and international market penetration. It is projected that Chery's passenger vehicle sales will grow by 49.4% year-on-year in 2024, leading among the top twenty global passenger car companies [9][10]. - Chery has maintained its position as the top exporter of passenger vehicles among Chinese brands for 22 consecutive years, with strong sales in Europe, South America, and the Middle East [10]. Fund Utilization - The funds raised from the IPO will be allocated as follows: 35% for developing various passenger vehicle models, 25% for next-generation vehicles and advanced technologies, 20% for expanding overseas markets, 10% for enhancing production facilities in Wuhu, and 10% for working capital [11]. - This funding strategy reflects Chery's focus on increasing R&D investment, particularly in new energy and smart technologies, while solidifying its status as a leading exporter [11]. Financial Growth - Chery's revenue is projected to grow from CNY 92.618 billion in 2022 to CNY 269.897 billion in 2024, with net profit increasing from CNY 5.806 billion to CNY 14.334 billion during the same period [11]. - In Q1 2025, Chery reported revenue of CNY 68.223 billion and a net profit of CNY 4.726 billion, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 90.9% [11]. Market Positioning - The successful listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange provides Chery with a long-term capital channel, enabling it to seize opportunities in the global automotive industry transformation and strive to enter the ranks of world-class brands [12].