2025 年 12 月 24 日 期指：驱动待寻，窄幅震荡 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4620.7 | ↑0.20 | | 4331.4 | | | | | | IF2601 | 4598.8 | ↑0.15 | -21.93 | 418.1 | 30272 | ↑374 | 64011 | ↑494 | | IF2602 | 4581.6 | ↑0.10 | -39.13 | 22.1 | 1608 | ↑223 | 1335 | ↓29 | | IF2603 | 4571.4 | ↑0.12 | -49.33 | 722.7 | 52645 | ↓1317 | 163660 | ↑5860 | | IF2606 | 4521.2 | ↑0.12 | -99.53 | 101.9 | 7504 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-24燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 利多： 1. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄石油相关企业发起制裁 利空： 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 燃料油： 1、基本面：据多位贸易人士称，亚洲高硫燃料油整体市场将继续受到来自下游船用燃料油相对稳定的加油需求 的支撑，但炼油厂对原料的需求疲软以及近期供应充足将对基本面构成压力；贸易人士表示，全球最大的船用燃 料加注中心新加坡预计在未来几周迎来稳定的低硫燃料油调油组分到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油344.27 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The fundamental situation is weak with demand weakening and supply remaining high, but there are some positive factors such as unresolved structural contradictions in the spot market and pre - holiday restocking expectations, which create resistance to the downward movement of prices. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak oscillation". The overall view is "wide - range oscillation" because the fundamental situation is weak and the ore price is under pressure [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, putting pressure on the ore price. The positive factor is the strong expectation of pre - holiday restocking due to low mill inventories. Domestic port arrivals and miner shipments have both decreased month - on - month but are still at high levels within the year, and overseas ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is shrinking, the overall ore supply remains high. The weakening demand, high supply, and RMB appreciation put pressure on the ore price, while the unresolved spot structural contradictions and pre - holiday restocking expectations create resistance to the price decline [2]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 偏弱 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 马棕产量和出口，印尼生柴 和出口政策，欧盟相关政策 变化，国内到港和库存，替代 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均窄幅震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 19153 亿元，较上日成交额放量 331 亿 元。中长期来看，政策面利好预期以及资金净流入趋势保持 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 短线看强 | 日元加息落地，短期流动性回升 | | 铜 | 2602 | 强势 | 强势 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松，矿端减产 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：强势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：昨日金价强势上行， ...

焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-24） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：临近年底，安全事故频发，煤矿生产积极性不高，预计焦煤年前供给仍难有恢复。下游焦 企对原料煤以按需采购为主，煤矿出货不畅，线上竞拍底价多有下调，高价煤种成交依旧不畅，整体成 交仍显一般；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1140，基差14.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：焦钢厂经过三轮焦炭降价，利润恢复缓慢，当前对高价煤的采购还偏谨慎，同时焦化企业利 润受到挤压，也仍维持按需补库的节奏。在焦钢利润持续受限下，焦煤需求难有提升，预计短期焦煤价 格或偏弱运行。 4、盘面： ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | 2025年12月24日 | 最新值 | 全历史分位数 | 品种 | 历史1年分位数 | 价差 | 较前一日变化 | | | | | | | | | 9.80% | F期现价差 | -49.33 | -2.51 | 5.2096 | H期现价差 | -1.92 | -0.09 | 52 40% | 46.20% | 期现价差 | | | | | | | -123.59 | 11.40% | 1.40% | IC期现价差 | 8.87 | 10.0096 | 3.80% | IM期现价差 | -195.02 | -16.74 | 次月-当月 | -17.20 | -1.60 | 27.8096 | 26.20% | | | 零月-当月 | -27.4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on December 24, 2025, including power coal, energy and chemical products, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads. [1][5][20][26][40][51] Summary by Directory 1. Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From December 17 to December 23, 2025, the basis of power coal was -83.4, -90.4, -98.4, -106.4, -114.4 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decreasing trend. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 were all 0.0 yuan/ton. [2] 2. Energy and Chemical Products (1) Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio**: Data on basis, ratio, and other indicators of fuel oil, crude oil, asphalt, and INE crude oil from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 23 was -2.12 yuan/ton. [7] (2) Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 23 was -440 yuan/ton. [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol for 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber was -25 yuan/ton. [10] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 23 was 1575 yuan/ton. [10] 3. Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal for 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was 9.0 yuan/ton. [19] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 23 was 4.03. [19] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on December 23 was 212.0 yuan/ton. [20] 4. Non - Ferrous Metals (1) Domestic Market - **Basis**: The basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on December 23 was -380 yuan/ton. [27] (2) London Market - **LME Data**: Data on LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profits and losses of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was 13.16. [34] 5. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 23 was -84 yuan/ton. [41] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products for 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 38 yuan/ton. [41] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are provided. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on December 23 was 2.83. [41] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 17 to December 23, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 23 was 49.33. [52] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 for next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter are given. For example, the next - month - current - month inter - period spread of CSI 300 was -16.4. [52]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-12-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24885.00 8161.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | 202512 ...