Oil Market - The military strike by the US and Israel against Iran has escalated tensions, leading to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching nearly $82 per barrel before settling at $78, marking a rise of over 7% [2][22] - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian actions is expected to provide ongoing support for oil prices until the situation stabilizes [21][22] Precious Metals - The military actions in the Middle East are likely to boost safe-haven demand for precious metals, with expectations of continued strong performance in the short term [3] Base Metals - Copper prices are under pressure due to high visible inventories, while geopolitical tensions are expected to impact oil prices and, consequently, the dollar index, affecting the pricing of base metals [4] - Aluminum prices may see upward movement due to concerns over supply disruptions from the Middle East, where a significant portion of global aluminum production is located [5] - Zinc prices are supported in the short term by disruptions in Iranian lead and zinc ore transportation, although domestic supply remains adequate [8] Chemical Products - The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is expected to impact the supply of various chemical products, including methanol and urea, with potential price increases due to supply concerns [24][23] - The price of carbonated lithium is expected to remain strong due to supply worries stemming from Zimbabwe's export halt [12] Agricultural Products - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are likely to affect agricultural commodities, with soybean exports from the US showing a decline, and potential impacts on domestic prices due to international supply chain disruptions [33][34] - The conflict may also influence the prices of oils, with expectations of increased volatility in the market for palm oil and soybean oil [34][35] Steel and Iron Ore - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations, with rising inventories and pressure on prices due to weak demand and geopolitical uncertainties [14][15] - Iron ore prices are expected to face downward pressure from oversupply, despite some signs of demand recovery [15] Other Commodities - The market for natural rubber and synthetic rubber is seeing increased prices due to geopolitical risks and rising costs of raw materials [31] - The paper pulp market is facing high inventory levels, which may limit price increases despite strong overseas pricing [43]

报告日期：2026 年 3 月 2 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：地缘冲突升级，油价易涨难跌 上周末，中东地区军事冲突升级，原油大动脉、国际最重要的咽喉要道之一—霍 尔木兹海峡受到冲击，直接关停。有海外机构预测，布伦特原油期货价格可能突 破 100 美元/桶，"短期油价存上涨空间，布伦特原油期货价格有望站上 75 美元 /桶的区间。"期市夜盘收盘，国内期货主力合约多数上涨。涨幅方面，原油、 燃料油、甲醇等涨幅较大。跌幅方面，沪镍、焦煤、玻璃等跌超 1%。 重点品种：原油、甲醇 2）国内新闻 原油：外盘油价跳涨 8%。伊朗已宣布管控霍尔木兹海峡，目前所有途经该航线 的船只均已停航。霍尔木兹海峡日均运输约 2000 万桶石油及石油制品，伊拉 克、卡塔尔、科威特、阿联酋、伊朗以及沙特的石油运输将受到影响。受地理条 件限制，中东国家难以找到有效替代路线。但随后伊朗外长表态不寻求封锁霍尔 木兹海峡。后续油价可能出现三种走向，对应三种战争状态：第一种：和平状态 美国扶持的代理人顺利上台，伊朗效仿委内瑞拉与美国达成协议，海峡封锁解除， 伊朗原油出口恢复。全球油价将在短暂冲高后快速回落，但中国长期进口的廉价 伊朗能源将消 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market continued to rise amidst the intensifying confrontation between Trump and the US Supreme Court and the uncertainty of the third round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. On Saturday, the US and Israel jointly launched a large - scale military strike against Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran vowed to launch the most violent offensive, causing the most severe shock to the geopolitical pattern in decades [2][5][6]. - Geopolitical conflicts usually drive up precious metal prices in the short - term. After a possible pulse - like increase, prices may return to their original trend. The current US - Iran conflict has sharply increased market risk - aversion. Based on the trend of on - chain gold, the market expects the Middle East conflict to be controlled. It is predicted that precious metal prices may open higher and then fluctuate on Monday. If the geopolitical situation gets out of control, gold prices may break previous highs; if it is quickly controlled, gold prices will remain in a high - level oscillation. Silver prices are expected to remain highly volatile. In the long - term, due to frequent geopolitical risks and the continuous weakening of the US dollar's credit, the long - bull trend of precious metals remains solid [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1147.90 | 37.80 | 3.41% | 150146 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 1142.48 | 33.98 | 3.07% | 38408 | 235980 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 5296.40 | 166.40 | 3.24% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 23019 | 3237 | 16.36% | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 22369 | 3099 | 16.08% | 498864 | 2988126 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 94.39 | 9.82 | 11.61% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 623.75 | 99.95 | 19.08% | 16904 | 7355 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 609.99 | 84.94 | 16.18% | - | - | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2376.20 | 84.94 | 9.43% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 464.85 | 84.94 | 11.53% | 4636 | 7355 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1828.00 | 84.94 | 2.32% | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [3] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, the market was affected by the intensifying confrontation between Trump and the US Supreme Court and the uncertainty of the third - round nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran. The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's additional tariffs were illegal. The US imposed a 10% temporary global import tariff, and the average tariff rate dropped from 17.6% to 9%. Trump threatened to raise the tariff to 15% or higher [5]. - The third - round indirect nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran ended with significant differences. The US demanded Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear facilities, while Iran proposed to stop nuclear activities for a limited period and then resume them under supervision. The subsequent military strike and the death of Khamenei shocked the geopolitical pattern [6]. - The unexpectedly strong US PPI data restricted the Fed's easing space. Fed officials were divided on interest - rate cuts. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believed that further rate cuts were not appropriate until there was more evidence of continuous inflation decline. Fed Governor Milan expected a 100 - basis - point rate cut in 2026 and advocated an early and substantial cut [6]. 3. Important Data Information - In January, the US PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year (expected 2.6%, previous 3%) and 0.5% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous revised from 0.5% to 0.4%). The core PPI increased by 3.6% year - on - year (a one - year high, expected 3%, previous 3.3%) and 0.8% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous revised from 0.7% to 0.6%) [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 212,000 (expected 215,000, previous revised from 206,000 to 208,000). The unemployment rate in February seemed stable, and the market still expected the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year [9]. - The Indian market regulator allowed active - management equity funds worth $384 billion to allocate more funds to gold and silver, with a maximum of 35% of the remaining assets [9]. - Hong Kong is promoting the construction of an international gold trading center, planning to increase gold storage to over 2000 tons in three years, strengthen the linkage between Hong Kong and Shanghai's gold markets, and launch a gold central clearing system trial operation this year. Tax incentives for qualified institutions will also be considered [10]. - The Shanghai Gold & Jewelry Trade Association suggested that when recycling gold jewelry, sellers' valid IDs should be checked and recorded [10]. 4. Related Data Charts - **Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes**: The total gold holdings of ETFs were 1101.33 tons on February 27, 2026, an increase of 22.58 tons compared to the previous week. The silver holdings of ishare were 15992.40 tons, an increase of 474.79 tons compared to the previous week [13]. - Multiple charts showed the price trends, inventory changes, and non - commercial net long positions of precious metals in different markets, as well as the relationships between precious metal prices and other factors such as the US dollar, inflation expectations, and interest rates [14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][25][27][29][32][33][36][38][41][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the daily data of commodity options on February 27, 2026, including the futures and options market statistics and option quantitative indicators of agricultural products, energy chemicals, black commodities, and metals [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Agricultural Products 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of most agricultural products fluctuated, with corn, palm oil, and others rising, while bean粕, peanut, and others falling [1] - The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed to varying degrees, such as the trading volume of bean粕 decreasing by 108,533 and the open interest of corn increasing by 58,465 [1] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volume and open interest of options for each agricultural product variety changed, and the PCR (Put - Call Ratio) also showed different trends, such as the PCR of corn options decreasing [4] 3.1.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatility, historical volatility, and skew of each variety's options were presented, with the implied volatility of some varieties rising and others falling, such as the implied volatility of palm oil options rising by 0.56% [5] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of energy chemical products fluctuated, with some rising and some falling, such as the price of crude oil rising by 4.8 and the price of PTA falling by 10 [6] - The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed, such as the trading volume of PTA decreasing by 281,633 and the open interest of methanol increasing by 85,947 [6] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volume and open interest of options for energy chemical products changed, and the PCR also showed different trends, such as the PCR of PTA options increasing [7][8] 3.2.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatility, historical volatility, and skew of each variety's options were presented, with the implied volatility of some varieties rising and others falling, such as the implied volatility of crude oil options rising by 4.28% [9] 3.3 Black Commodities 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of black commodities fluctuated, with all rising, such as the price of iron ore rising by 2.0 and the price of silicon iron rising by 188 [10] - The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed, such as the trading volume of iron ore decreasing by 14,745 and the open interest of silicon iron decreasing by 234 [10] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volume and open interest of options for black commodities changed, and the PCR also showed different trends, such as the PCR of iron ore options decreasing [10] 3.3.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatility, historical volatility, and skew of each variety's options were presented, with the implied volatility of some varieties rising and others falling, such as the implied volatility of silicon iron options rising by 5.0% [11] 3.4 Metals 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - The closing prices of metals fluctuated, with most rising, such as the price of gold rising by 1.42 and the price of silver rising by 447 [12] - The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed, such as the trading volume of gold increasing by 25,303 and the open interest of silver decreasing by 2,359 [12] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - The trading volume and open interest of options for metals changed, and the PCR also showed different trends, such as the PCR of gold options increasing [13] 3.4.3 Option Quantitative Indicators - The implied volatility, historical volatility, and skew of each variety's options were presented, with the implied volatility of some varieties rising and others falling, such as the implied volatility of tin options rising by 9.62% [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, leading to an increase in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After the nomination of Warsh, the market still expects two interest - rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data shows a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upwards. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [12]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices after the prices have fully corrected [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, the death of the Supreme Leader Khamenei, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and the gold price has risen. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5296 per ounce, up 3.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $5470, and the lower support level is $5200 [7]. - Due to the same reasons, the silver price has risen. As of last Friday, the weekly increase was 11.6%, closing at $94.4 per ounce. The lower support level is $84, and the upper resistance level is $110 [10]. 3.2 Weekly View - The reasons for the increase in precious metal prices are the same as those in the market review. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept the interest rate unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed down, and Powell said that the changing economic risks give the Fed more reasons to cut interest rates. After the nomination of Warsh, the market still expects two interest - rate cuts this year, but there may be a restart of balance - sheet reduction. The US economic data shows a downward trend, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver have shifted upwards. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February non - farm payroll data to be released on Friday [12]. - It is expected that the prices will continue to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to build positions at low prices after the prices have fully corrected [13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data and trends of the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price [16][18][21][24]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Current Week - The US January PPI annual rate was 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.6% and the previous value of 3%. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21 was 212,000, lower than the expected 215,000 but higher than the previous value of 206,000 [26]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Current Week - The US and Israel launched a war against Iran, the Supreme Leader Khamenei has died, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Attention should be paid to the intensity of Iran's counter - attack and the scope of conflict spread. - The US January PPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, far higher than the expected 2.6%; it increased by 0.5% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3%. Excluding food and energy with large fluctuations, the January core PPI increased by 3.6% year - on - year, far higher than the expected 3%; it increased by 0.8% month - on - month, also higher than the expected 0.3% [27]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 18,634.10 kg to 1,036,403.92 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory decreased by 12 kg to 105,060 kg. - This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 184,273.82 kg to 11,207,602.01 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 46,963 kg to 306,596 kg [14][31]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of February 24, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 162,188 lots, an increase of 7,597 lots compared with last week. - As of February 24, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 20,723 lots, a decrease of 2,133 lots compared with last week [14][35]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (March 4) at 21:15, the change in the US February ADP employment number will be released. - On Friday (March 6) at 21:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in the US February non - farm employment population and the US February unemployment rate will be released [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - tight logic of copper remains unchanged, and geopolitical conflicts have a significant impact on the copper market. The supply - demand imbalance in the copper market persists, and the copper price may operate strongly at a high level in the long term, but there are uncertainties in the short - term due to factors such as inventory and geopolitical situations [5][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Shanghai Copper Market Review**: In February, the copper price maintained a volatile trend with a monthly increase of 0.02%. As of February 27, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 103,920 yuan/ton. During the Spring Festival, influenced by Trump's tariff remarks and the continuous increase in LME inventory, the London copper price once declined. Then, due to various factors such as the US Supreme Court's ruling and geopolitical situations, the price rebounded. The supply - demand of copper remained tight, and attention should be paid to the war between the US - Israel and Iran, inventory inflection points, and macro - sentiment changes [5][6]. 3.2 Macro - factor Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the US, the CPI growth rate slowed down in January, but the PCE data showed stubborn inflation pressure, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts retreated. The labor market still had some resilience, but the previous employment data was significantly revised downwards, indicating that the weakness of the US employment market in 2025 exceeded expectations. In February, the US manufacturing and service PMI growth rates slowed down, and the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 also slowed down. The US dollar index first decreased and then increased [11][18]. - **Domestic Macro**: In China, the CPI increase in January was affected by the Spring Festival, and the PPI increased for four consecutive months. The social financing scale increment in January reached 7.22 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale stock increased year - on - year. The M2 - M1 scissors gap narrowed. In January, the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indexes all declined, and the economic prosperity level decreased. In 2025, the GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise profits increased for the first time in four years [20][21][23]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Mine - end Supply**: In 2025, global copper mine disruptions were frequent. The total global copper concentrate output from January to December was 23.112 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The output growth rate continued to decline. As of February 27, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 514,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.72% and a year - on - year increase of 4.05%, remaining at a low level in previous years [33]. - **Smelting End**: Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, the processing fees remained at a historical low. The long - term copper concentrate processing fee benchmark in 2026 decreased compared with 2025. The spot rough smelting fee was at a historical low. In February 2026, the domestic southern rough copper processing fee increased, and the imported CIF rough copper processing fee remained flat for four consecutive months [36]. - **Refined Copper**: In January 2026, the copper production capacity utilization rate increased. In February, the SMM China electrolytic copper output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected that the output will further increase in March [38]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, and exports increased. The net import volume dropped to the lowest level in the past three years. In February, the import profit remained negative and slightly widened [41]. - **Scrap Copper**: In December, China's scrap copper imports increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In 2025, the import volume of recycled copper raw materials increased. In February, the refined - scrap copper price difference first increased and then decreased [44]. - **Processing Link**: In January 2026, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises decreased, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was weak. The operating rate of copper foil continued to rise [46][50]. - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, the growth rate of power project investment slowed down, while the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power increased stably. The real estate industry was still at the bottom - grinding stage, and policies continued to be introduced. The new energy vehicle industry maintained a high - growth trend, and the output and sales of household appliances remained stable [55][58][62][64]. - **Inventory**: As of February 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory and the domestic copper social inventory increased significantly month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate, and the LME copper inventory increased significantly, driving the continuous increase of global copper visible inventory [67][69]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic spot discount widened, and the LME 0 - 3 maintained a discount [72]. - **Long and Short Positions in Domestic and Foreign Markets**: As of February 27, the Shanghai copper futures positions and trading volume decreased significantly. The net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions and COMEX copper asset management institutions decreased [74]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The US - Israel's war against Iran may significantly push up the prices of major non - ferrous metals such as copper and aluminum in the short term due to factors such as increased risk - aversion sentiment, supply disruptions, and a sharp rise in energy costs [83]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: After the Spring Festival in China, the copper price has moved up, but the social inventory has accumulated more than expected, and the spot is in a large - discount market. The downstream enterprises' resumption of work is slow, and the demand is limited. The geopolitical conflict may indirectly push up the copper price, but the copper price may lack the power to continue rising in the short term. In the long term, the demand for new energy, power, and AI computing power still provides support, and the copper price may operate strongly at a high level. Attention should be paid to the duration and intensity of the war, the global economic recession expectation, and the inventory reduction progress [84].

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Monthly Report on the Aquaculture Industry [1] - Report Date: March 2, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Pig Industry**: In the short term, pig prices will fluctuate at the bottom due to oversupply in the first half of the year and seasonal weak demand. However, the potential for secondary fattening and frozen pork storage at low prices, along with government purchasing support, will limit the downside. In the long term, supply will gradually tighten from July to October, but price increases may be limited due to high sow inventories and cost reduction efforts [7]. - **Egg Industry**: In the short term, egg prices are expected to rise slightly but with limited upside due to ongoing supply pressure and seasonal weak demand. In the long term, supply pressure will gradually ease, but the process will be slow [53]. - **Corn Industry**: In the short term, the corn market will be supported by tight supply and post - holiday restocking demand. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern will be looser, and price increases will be limited [89]. Summary by Section Pig Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the national pig price was 10.8 yuan/kg, down 1.41 yuan/kg from the end of last month. The Henan average pig price was 11.13 yuan/kg, down 1.33 yuan/kg. The 05 futures price closed at 11485 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton. The 05 contract basis was - 355 yuan/ton, down 1165 yuan/ton from the end of last month [7]. Supply - In December 2025, pig production capacity was still above the normal level. In January 2026, with positive breeding profits, capacity reduction slowed down. High production performance will lead to a relatively loose supply in 2026. Supply pressure will ease slightly from April but remain high in the first half of the year. Supply will decrease marginally from July to October [7]. - The average slaughter weight decreased monthly but was still at a high level compared to the same period. The willingness for secondary fattening increased as pig prices fell after the Spring Festival, potentially increasing future supply pressure [22]. Demand - The slaughtering rate of slaughterhouses first increased, then decreased, and then increased again in February. In March, it is expected to rise slightly at a low level. Frozen pork inventory is being depleted. As pig prices fall, slaughterhouses may increase inventory, boosting consumption [7]. Cost - Piglet prices decreased, and sow prices were stable in February. Breeding profits turned negative, and future breeding costs are expected to decline [7]. Policy - The government will continue to guide the pig production capacity to stay within a balanced range and ensure stable supply and prices. If the pig - grain ratio falls below 5:1, policy measures such as state purchasing will be implemented [7]. Strategy - Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for the 05 contract on rebounds. Be cautious about chasing up prices for the 07 and 09 contracts. Hedge on price increases for the 11 and 01 contracts before effective capacity reduction [7]. Egg Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan/jin, down 1.03 yuan/jin from the end of January. The average price in the main selling areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 1 yuan/jin. The main contract closed at 3267 yuan/500 kg, up 41 yuan/500 kg. The main basis was - 597 yuan/500 kg, weaker by 991 yuan/500 kg [55]. Supply - The number of newly - laid hens in March is average. The inventory of laying hens has been slowly declining but remains at a relatively high level. In the long term, the supply pressure will gradually ease, but the process will be slow [55]. Demand - In March, egg prices rebounded from a low level. The demand for group meals and food factories supported the market. The price advantage of eggs over substitutes remained, supporting the bottom price [55]. Strategy - If the spot price increase is less than expected, take a bearish view on the near - month 04 and 05 contracts [55]. Corn Industry Market Performance - As of February 27, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the end of January. The main 2605 contract closed at 2360 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton. The main basis was 10 yuan/ton, weaker by 52 yuan/ton [94]. Supply - The national primary grain sales progress reached 66%, 4% slower than the same period last year. The supply pattern is relatively tight in the short term. Corn imports in December 2025 were 800,000 tons, a significant year - on - year increase [94]. Demand - Feed demand has strong rigid support, but there is no significant increase. Deep - processing demand is limited due to low operating rates and high product inventories [94]. Strategy - In the short term, the futures price will be supported by downstream restocking and low port inventories. In the long term, the price increase is limited due to the expected loose supply - demand pattern [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the market liquidity situation of various sectors on February 27, 2026, including the trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio of different sectors, as well as their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity - Provides trading volume, position amount, and trading - position ratio data of multiple sectors, and their changes compared with the previous trading day [1][2] II. Stock Index Plate - On February 27, 2026, the trading volume was 636.976 billion yuan, a +6.60% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 1608.924 billion yuan, a +3.03% change; the trading - position ratio was 39.13% [1] III. Treasury Bond Plate - On February 27, 2026, the trading volume was 298.356 billion yuan, a -37.60% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 836.299 billion yuan, a -0.40% change; the trading - position ratio was 35.03% [1] IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - On February 27, 2026, the trading volume of the base metals sector was 738.007 billion yuan, a +19.72% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 710.588 billion yuan, a +3.47% change; the trading - position ratio was 98.17%. The trading volume of the precious metals sector was 630.887 billion yuan, a +8.61% change; the position amount was 521.784 billion yuan, a +0.45% change; the trading - position ratio was 153.44% [1] V. Energy and Chemicals Plate - On February 27, 2026, the trading volume was 489.690 billion yuan, a +5.05% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 488.347 billion yuan, a -0.92% change; the trading - position ratio was 85.62% [1] VI. Agricultural Products Plate - On February 27, 2026, the trading volume was 276.138 billion yuan, a -12.44% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 632.208 billion yuan, a +0.64% change; the trading - position ratio was 39.12% [1] VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On February 27, 2026, the trading volume was 159.985 billion yuan, a -5.31% change from the previous trading day; the position amount was 328.009 billion yuan, a -0.10% change; the trading - position ratio was 48.14% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy in the medium - to - long - term, and recommend allocating long - dated contracts of various varieties on dips as using stock indices as long - term substitutes currently offers certain excess returns [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium - to - long - term, with the increasing risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On February 27th, the four major A - share stock indexes had mixed performances. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to close at 4162.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to close at 14495.09 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.04% to close at 3310.3 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 0.15% to close at 1488.02 points. Market trading volume was 25,055 billion yuan, a decrease of 512 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, steel (+3.37%), coal (+3.2%), and non - ferrous metals (+3.1%) performed well; building materials (-1.45%), communications (-1.38%), and electronics (-0.71%) performed averagely [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IC > IM > IH > IF. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,267/146/2,066 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of - 62, - 183, 15, and 231 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +45, +10, - 73, and +18 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 74.64, 38.25, 4.25, and - 7.57 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 6.23%, - 3.16%, - 0.64%, and 1.78% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 61%, 69%, 59%, and 73% respectively [2] - The table shows detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts and their corresponding spot indexes, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [5] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On February 27th, treasury bond futures showed a pattern of short - term strength and long - term weakness. Among the active contracts, TS rose 0.03%, TF rose 0.04%, T rose 0.05%, and TL fell 0.07% [3] - For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond for the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of - 0.25bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.42%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250014.IB, with a yield change of +0bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.003, and an IRR of 1.49%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 250025.IB, with a yield change of - 0.9bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.016, and an IRR of 1.53%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond was 220008.IB, with a yield change of - 0.6bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.119, and an IRR of 1.17% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 2,690 billion yuan through open market operations, with 0 billion yuan in withdrawals, resulting in a net injection of 2,690 billion yuan [3] - The table presents detailed performance data of various treasury bond futures contracts and their corresponding spot bonds, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and implied interest rate of CTD bonds [6] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, and social activities exceeds the same period in previous years, while the prosperity of infrastructure and imports and exports is similar to the same period in previous years [9]

本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确 地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 20260302申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：美盘早盘与周五夜盘铜价收盘时持平，美伊战争对铜价短期冲击有限。精矿供应延续 紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计 局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短 | | | 期可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和旺季下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收低1.07%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续 增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家 | | | 电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和 ...