行 华福证券 电力设备 2025 年 12 月 28 日 业 研 究 行 业 电力设备 产业周跟踪：锂电、光伏产业链限产提价，重申 坚定看好 投资要点： 锂电板块核心观点：两大铁锂企业减产检修，天齐碳酸锂定价体系重 构。1）两大铁锂企业减产检修，影响短期供给；2）结算锚定"Mysteel+ 期货"，天齐碳酸锂定价体系重构。 定 期 报 告 光伏板块核心观点：市场监管总局对光伏行业开展价格竞争合规指导， 高质量发展成为明确方向。市场监管总局在合肥对光伏行业开展价格竞争 合规指导，标志着政策面对行业长期"内卷"和"劣币驱逐良币"困境的 正式介入与纠偏。此举短期旨在打击价格串通等违法行为，维护公平秩序； 长期则是引导行业从同质化低价竞争，转向技术创新与优质优价的健康发 展轨道。这为具备技术、成本优势的头部企业创造了更有利环境，并与近 期硅片企业协同挺价的市场行为形成共振。行业竞争规则正在重塑，高质 量发展成为明确方向。 风电板块核心观点：国内风电装机量快速增长，江苏多个海风项目获 核准。1）1-11 月国内风电新增装机 82.5GW，实现快速增长；2）江苏 2024 年竞配海风项目进展积极，有望在 2026 年下半 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategies of Wu Haining, a fund manager at Hengyue Fund, focusing on capturing opportunities in the technology sector amidst rapid shifts in sub-sector hotspots [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Performance - Wu Haining's management of Hengyue Advantage Select has yielded significant returns, with a one-year return of 142.56%, ranking sixth among similar funds [2]. - The investment strategy involved a focus on high-growth technology sectors, including smart driving, domestic computing power, and the Apple supply chain, with a notable increase in AI computing targets [2]. - In the second quarter, adjustments were made by reducing positions in smart driving and increasing exposure to the PCB sector and upstream materials, while also investing in sectors like military, gaming, and new energy [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - Wu Haining anticipates continued opportunities in 2026, driven by a likely ongoing interest rate reduction cycle across major economies, which will maintain a relatively loose liquidity environment [4]. - Key sectors for investment in 2026 include energy storage, storage chips, AI computing power, semiconductor equipment materials, and lithium solid-state batteries, with a focus on companies with global competitiveness [4][5]. - The investment logic will involve selecting companies with significant performance elasticity and adjusting portfolio allocations based on market conditions and the certainty of factors [4]. Group 3: Specific Sector Insights - The energy storage sector is expected to see increased demand, with predictions of shortages and price increases in domestic storage by 2026, driven by the economic viability of independent storage and increased foreign electricity shortages [5][6]. - The storage chip market is entering a price increase cycle, with AI-driven data storage demand expected to surge, particularly due to the high demand from AI video generation [6]. - The domestic semiconductor equipment sector is also viewed positively, as domestic storage chip production capabilities have reached international standards, with a high certainty of continued expansion during the upcycle [6].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of new energy theme funds has significantly rebounded after a period of adjustment, with an average net value increase of 41.33% over the past year, indicating the start of a new economic cycle in the sector [2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - New energy theme funds have shown an average net value increase of 41.33% over the past year, with several products exceeding a 60% increase [2]. - Specific funds such as GF Carbon Neutral Theme Mixed Fund A, Huafu New Energy Stock Fund A, and others have reported net value increases above 60% [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Fund managers are optimistic about structural opportunities in sub-sectors like energy storage and wind power, suggesting a long-term investment perspective focused on leading companies with core competitiveness [2][3]. - Two types of companies are highlighted for investment: leading firms with strong competitive advantages and growth capabilities, and core material companies facing critical supply-demand turning points [3]. Group 3: Sector Insights - The energy storage sector is expected to see performance realization due to an improving supply-demand landscape, driven by global energy transition and AI development [4]. - The wind power sector is experiencing strong global installation demand, with potential for growth in China's wind power supply chain and improved profitability as bidding prices for new projects rise [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - Investment in the new energy sector should consider long-term growth potential and clear industry trends, while avoiding linear extrapolation and focusing on key contradictions in supply-demand dynamics [5]. - Diversification is recommended to manage risks associated with new technologies, such as solid-state batteries, which have significant uncertainties [5].

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The AIDC power/storage, lithium battery, and hydrogen-ammonia sectors are highlighted as key investment areas, with a focus on the North American AI chain and the ongoing demand for energy storage solutions [3]. - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a recovery due to supply chain adjustments and production cuts among phosphate lithium companies, which are expected to enhance pricing power [4]. - The hydrogen-ammonia sector is viewed positively due to supportive policies and market expectations, with significant investment potential anticipated [4]. Summary by Sections AIDC Power/Storage - North American AI chain is driving interest in AIDC power and storage, with liquid cooling technology opening new order opportunities [3]. - The outlook for overseas energy storage remains strong, particularly in the U.S., where electricity shortages continue to drive demand [6]. Lithium Batteries - Recent environmental assessments for lithium mines and production cuts among phosphate lithium companies are expected to stabilize prices and enhance negotiation power [4]. - The investment hierarchy for lithium materials is ranked as follows: lithium carbonate > hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode [4][19]. Hydrogen-Ammonia and Wind Power - The hydrogen-ammonia sector is expected to gain traction as a key application for renewable energy consumption, supported by favorable policies [4]. - Wind power installations are projected to grow significantly, with onshore wind capacity expected to increase by 9.68% year-on-year in 2024 [7]. Energy Storage - The domestic energy storage market is experiencing sustained growth, with significant installations reported in Inner Mongolia [6]. - Key projects include a 20GWh energy cell procurement by Ningde Times and various large-scale storage projects in Shanxi and Hebei [6]. Wind Power - The report notes a substantial increase in wind power installations, with a total of 82.50GW added in 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 59.42% [7]. Pricing Trends - The report indicates that the prices of key materials such as lithium carbonate and phosphoric iron lithium are experiencing fluctuations, with market dynamics affecting supply and demand [20][30].

- The report introduces a timing system that uses the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the WIND All A Index to determine market trends. The short-term moving average is above the long-term moving average, with a distance of 3.38%, which is significantly greater than 3%, indicating the market has returned to an upward trend[2][6][11] - The "profitability effect" is used as a core indicator to assess market conditions. The current market trend line is at 6237 points, and the profitability effect is 3.12%, which is significantly positive, suggesting the upward trend is likely to continue[5][7][11] - The "Mid-term Distress Reversal Expectation Model" signals a focus on retail, tourism, and other service-oriented consumption sectors[5][7][11] - The "TWO BETA Model" continues to recommend the technology sector, with a focus on domestic computing power and commercial aerospace[5][7][11] - The "Industry Trend Model" indicates that sectors such as communication, industrial metals, and energy storage are maintaining an upward trend[5][7][11] - The valuation metrics for the WIND All A Index show that the PE ratio is at the 85th percentile, indicating a relatively high level, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a medium level[5][7][11] - Based on the "Position Management Model," the report suggests an 80% equity allocation for absolute return products using the WIND All A Index as the primary stock allocation benchmark[5][7][11]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a "small fluctuation" trend as it approaches the end of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording eight consecutive days of gains and a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing 2 trillion yuan on Friday [2] - The market is expected to continue its upward momentum, driven by liquidity and positive factors such as a weaker US dollar and rising attractiveness of RMB assets, with a focus on policy expectations and industry trends for potential catalysts [2] - The new investment themes for 2026 are emerging in commodity markets, real industry chains, and foreign exchange markets, with a focus on AI investments and the recovery of global manufacturing, as well as sectors with comparative advantages in China [3] Group 2 - The overall market is expected to have upward space before the Spring Festival, with opportunities for low-position layouts, as the main risk factors have weakened compared to previous periods [4] - The current market environment is characterized by a consolidation phase rather than a formal initiation of a major upward trend, with funds adopting a strategy of "buying on dips and structural switching" rather than aggressive accumulation at high levels [4] - The short-term market is likely to evolve through gradual increases in focus and continuous internal adjustments rather than rapid surges, indicating a more cautious approach to investment [4]

Group 1 - Tesla is reportedly preparing to launch its Robotaxi service in China, as indicated by a recent job posting related to the project [1][6] - The Robotaxi business is set to begin operations in Austin, Texas, by June 2025, with the current fleet utilizing the Model Y vehicle [6] - As of early November, the Robotaxi in Austin has accumulated over 400,000 kilometers, while the Bay Area has seen over 1.6 million kilometers [6] Group 2 - Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has reached a milestone of producing its 4 millionth vehicle, contributing nearly half of Tesla's global electric vehicle deliveries [7] - In November, the Shanghai Gigafactory delivered 86,700 units of Model 3 and Model Y, marking a 10% year-on-year increase and a 40% month-on-month increase [7] - The factory has achieved a localization rate of 95% for its supply chain and has established a complete ecosystem for electric vehicles in the Yangtze River Delta region [7] Group 3 - Tesla's second Gigafactory in Shanghai, focused on energy storage, is set to begin production in February 2025, marking Tesla's first energy storage factory outside the U.S. [7][9] - The factory is planned to produce 10,000 units of the Megapack energy storage system annually, with a total storage capacity of nearly 40 GWh [9]

Core Viewpoint - The successful grid connection of three large-scale independent energy storage projects in Inner Mongolia marks a significant achievement in the energy transition, showcasing high capacity, quality, and speed in construction, with a total storage capacity of 7.4 GWh [1][2][3] Group 1: Project Overview - The three projects include: - Ordos Gushanliang 500MW/2000MWh - Baotou Weijun 500MW/3000MWh - Baotou Bulhantu 400MW/2400MWh - The projects were completed and connected to the grid within just over five months, with the fastest construction taking only three months, setting a record for large-scale energy storage project construction [1][2] Group 2: Technical Solutions - All three projects utilized Haibo Sichuang's flagship large-capacity liquid-cooled energy storage system, tailored to the unique climatic conditions of Inner Mongolia [2] - The Ordos Gushanliang project features the second-generation energy storage inverter (PCS) developed by Haibo Sichuang, ensuring precise response to grid dispatch needs [2] - The Baotou Weijun project has a single station capacity of 3 GWh, capable of storing up to 3 million kWh, placing it among the world's largest energy storage stations [2] - The Baotou Bulhantu project employs a new generation of large-capacity storage system with 587Ah cells, designed for modular configuration to meet varying grid demand [2] Group 3: Industry Impact - The successful integration of these projects will significantly enhance the Inner Mongolia grid's ability to accommodate renewable energy sources like wind and solar, alleviating peak-to-valley pressure on the grid [3] - The projects are expected to stimulate local development of the energy storage industry and provide new pathways for regional energy structure transformation [3] - Haibo Sichuang aims to continue driving high-quality development of new energy systems through technological innovation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development of AI technology is driving an explosive growth in electricity demand for data centers in the U.S., leading to a power shortage that constrains industry growth. The dual trends of energy transition towards green electricity and the rise of AI storage are creating a golden development period for the U.S. energy storage market, presenting a trillion-dollar market opportunity [4][10]. Group 1: Electricity Demand and Supply - Over the past decade, the annual electricity consumption in the U.S. has remained stable at around 4000 TWh, with a compound growth rate of only 2%. However, the rise of AI data centers has disrupted this balance, with electricity demand projected to reach approximately 1269 TWh by 2030, accounting for 22% of total electricity demand [6][10]. - The U.S. power supply is struggling to keep pace with this demand growth, with an average annual power generation capacity addition of about 40 GW expected from 2025 to 2027, resulting in a persistent electricity shortfall of 20-40 GW [6][10]. Group 2: Green Electricity and Storage Solutions - The combination of green electricity and energy storage is becoming the preferred power supply solution for U.S. data centers due to its cost-effectiveness and environmental benefits. The cost of solar and storage has dropped to $0.033 per kWh, making it highly competitive against traditional energy sources [11]. - By 2030, the demand for green electricity storage is expected to reach 240 GWh if the green electricity ratio is 50%, and 150 GWh if the ratio is 30%. This indicates a significant market expansion for green electricity storage [14]. Group 3: Low-Voltage Direct Current Storage - The demand for energy quality management in AI data centers is giving rise to a new storage trend—low-voltage direct current storage. This new architecture can reduce energy consumption by 5-8% and improve computing density and efficiency [16][18]. - The advantages of this new architecture include enhanced peak support, improved model training efficiency by 15-20%, and reduced operational costs through lower electricity prices [17][18]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The U.S. energy storage market is expected to exceed expectations, with installed demand projected to reach 80 GWh by 2026, a 51% year-on-year increase, and 391 GWh by 2030, corresponding to a battery demand of over 500 GWh. Domestic battery production capacity is only 100 GWh, indicating a significant reliance on Chinese supply chains [19]. - Investment focus should be on three main areas: battery production, energy storage systems, and photovoltaic integration projects, as these sectors are poised to benefit from the growing demand for energy storage solutions [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Haibo Sichuang is investing 2 billion yuan in a new smart green energy storage factory project, which aims to enhance its capabilities in research, manufacturing, and testing of energy storage integrated systems [2] - The project will be located in the Beijing High-end Manufacturing Base in Fangshan District and is expected to take 36 months to complete, with a planned completion and production start date in December 2028 [2] - The funding for the project will come from Haibo Sichuang's own or self-raised funds, and it does not involve any fundraising [2] Group 2 - The project aligns with national industrial policy and the company's overall development strategy, representing a strategic move to seize opportunities in the energy storage industry and strengthen its leading position [2] - Once completed, the project will address the capacity gap faced by the company in future business development, enhancing supply assurance and response speed [2] - The introduction of advanced intelligent manufacturing systems is expected to improve production efficiency and optimize product cost structure, thereby enhancing the overall competitiveness of the company's products [2]