Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector in Yili County, Xinjiang is experiencing modernization through the adoption of technology and the cultivation of new professional farmers, leading to increased productivity and income for local farmers [1][2][3] Group 1: Technological Adoption - Over 1.1 million acres of cotton in Yili County are entering the sowing period, with young farmers utilizing smart agricultural machinery to enhance productivity [1] - The use of unmanned high-power cotton sowing machines equipped with Beidou navigation systems is being implemented, showcasing advancements in precision agriculture [1][2] - The cooperative employs various sowing techniques such as "dry sowing and wet emergence" and "precision sowing" to improve efficiency and reduce resource consumption [1][2] Group 2: Economic Impact - A farmer in Yili County reported an income increase to over 300,000 yuan annually due to the combination of land leasing and agricultural machinery rental [1] - The establishment of the Xinjiang Bazhou Qiangsheng Agricultural Cooperative has led to the leasing of 18,000 acres of land, providing additional income opportunities for local villagers [2] Group 3: Workforce Development - Yili County is focusing on creating a new generation of professional farmers who are knowledgeable in technology and management, aiming to attract and train young individuals in agriculture [2][3] - The local government is enhancing training programs and promoting the application of technology to cultivate a skilled workforce that can effectively manage modern agricultural practices [3]

光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 p 2 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 总 结 供应端：国内新棉播种进入尾声，预计种植面积同比小幅增加，但增幅或低于此前市场预期，美棉播种进度加速，目前看干旱影响未完全消失，预计新年度中美棉花产 量均同比下降。 1、USDA3月末种植意向报告显示，预计2025年美棉播种面积为986.7万英亩，同比下降近12%，基本符合市场预期，但由于弃种率预计下调，因此最终产量预计变化不 大。我们认为美棉产量高估。2、截止4月20日，美国棉花播种进度11%，持平往年同期水平。3、国内新棉播种中，新疆大部分地区已经播种完毕，东疆和南疆部分棉区 已经出苗。4、据中国棉花市场监测系统，2025年我国棉花意向种植面积4376.3万亩，同比增加1.5%，增幅较上次预测环比下降0.3个百分点；其中新疆地区棉花意向种 植面积3890.4万亩，同比增加2.6%。 需求端：国内纺织企业开 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton futures have strengthened technically after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, with short - term support rising to 67 - 68 cents per pound. If there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, it may continue to rise [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, affected by weak demand expectations, market sentiment, supply - side factors, and some supportive factors. Attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 67.20 | 69.75 | 66.21 | 68.70 | 1.59 | 2.37 | 135914 | 42765 | 115919 | 1651 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 12895 | 13080 | 12760 | 12990 | 105 | 0.81 | 1001455 | 47202 | 572168 | 49946 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 18835 | 19165 | 18690 | 18935 | 95 | 0.50 | 23129 | 1504 | 22233 | 1138 | [6] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton rose by over 2% this week, mainly due to a sharp rise on Wednesday. The overall risk appetite in the financial market recovered, and there was no negative impact from the external market. Technical buying was triggered after breaking through the 60 - day moving average, and it didn't give back the gains despite unimpressive weekly export sales and weather data [1][6]. - As of the week ending April 17, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 23,600 tons, a 49% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. 2025/26 US upland cotton cumulative contracts were 265,800 tons, an 8% year - on - year decline. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 66,300 tons, an 11% week - on - week decrease and a 22% decrease from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.5521 million tons, accounting for 108% of the annual forecast export volume, and the cumulative export shipments were 1.7435 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual total contracts [7]. - In Brazil, the market was dull due to holidays. About 60% of the 2025 - season cotton had been sold through primary channels, and less than 10% of the 2024 - season cotton remained in farmers' hands. The market was sluggish both domestically and for exports, and the raw cotton shipments in the first three weeks of April were expected to exceed 150,000 tons [8]. - In India, the market was also dull. The Cotton Corporation of India sold about 100,000 bales of cotton this week, reducing its inventory to 7.6 million bales. The season - to - date arrivals were 27.9 million bales, with daily arrivals of about 40,000 bales mainly from Maharashtra and Gujarat [8]. - In Pakistan, the new - season planting area was still uncertain. Sowing in Sindh had accelerated slightly due to improved water supply from snowmelt, but water shortages were still severe, with only 15% of the 630,000 - hectare target completed, compared to 33% at the same time last year. In Punjab, early sowing was more successful, with about 25% of the 1.416 million - hectare target completed. Import cotton demand slowed down this week. In March, the export value of the top five textile categories was $1.17 billion, a slight increase from February and a nearly 12% year - on - year increase. The cumulative export value in the first nine months of this fiscal year was $11.2 billion, an 11% increase from the same period in the 2023/24 fiscal year [9]. - In Bangladesh, attention was on the negotiation results with the US, and trade frictions with India had increased. Cotton demand was stable this week, but there were also sporadic inquiries for more distant periods. In March, cotton imports were 147,086 tons, basically the same as last month and a slight year - on - year increase. The cumulative imports in the first eight months of 2024 were 1.1 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [10]. - As of the week ending April 25, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 76%, 66.5%, and 59.5% respectively [10]. Domestic Cotton Situation - The domestic cotton market was dull. As of April 25, the spot trading continued to weaken, and the basis of high - quality cotton in northern Xinjiang decreased slightly, while the basis in southern Xinjiang remained stable. As of April 25, the registered cotton warrants were 10,555 lots, and the forecast warrants were 1,938 lots, totaling 12,493 lots, equivalent to 524,706 tons [11]. - The downstream market lacked confidence. The pure - cotton yarn market was approaching the traditional off - season, with reduced trading volume and weakening sentiment. The inventory of spinning enterprises increased, and some small factories in the inland limited production. The all - cotton grey fabric market was also weak, with weak orders, increased inventory, and some factories reducing their operating rates [12]. 3. Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to have upward momentum if there are positive factors in US cotton exports and weather, with short - term support at 67 - 68 cents per pound [16]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [2][16].