报告导读： 中国股市进入击球区， 2025 年 12 月 -2026 年 2 月是中国政策、流动性、 基本面向上共振的窗口期。布出先手棋，增持中国市场，做多跨年行情。看好科技 / 券商 / 消费。 市场风险已大幅释放，中国股市进入击球区。 与当下谨慎共识不同的是，国泰海通策略坚决看好中国市场前景，股指进入击球区： 1 ）市场调整的时间和空 间已与历次牛市主线回调相当，恐慌抛售杀出交易风险释放。 2 ）市场对年末经济工作会议讨论不多，考虑眼下走弱的增长现实和十五五开年经济增速的重 要性，政策窗口期临近市场有望建立新预期。 3 ）中金公司合并标志资本市场改革加快纵深， 11 月 21 日 16 只硬科技 ETF 迅速获批隐含监管层稳定市场 的决心与行动部署。机会总在恐慌中出现，我们认为，中国股市将逐步企稳与展开跨年攻势，上升的空间还很大，眼下是增持的良机。 中国资本市场处于大发展的周期，股指向上还有很大空间。 过去造成股市估值折价的因素已消解（担忧中美冲突 / 经济能见度下降 / 资产负债收缩）， 2025 年以来对外更自信 / 对内更稳定、尾部风险下降 / 人民币资产逐步企稳，意味着中国资本市场处于估值回升和大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector, particularly in China, is experiencing a decline in key indices, while DeepSeek has launched two new models aimed at enhancing computational capabilities and innovation in the computing ecosystem [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The STAR Market 50 Index and STAR Comprehensive Index both fell by 1.2%, while the STAR Growth Index decreased by 1.3%, and the STAR 100 Index dropped by 1.4% [1] Group 2: DeepSeek Model Launch - DeepSeek has released two official model versions: DeepSeek-V3.2 and DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale [1] - DeepSeek-V3.2 aims to balance reasoning ability with output length, making it suitable for everyday applications such as Q&A scenarios and general agent tasks [1] - DeepSeek-V3.2-Speciale is designed to push the reasoning capabilities of open-source models to their limits, exploring the boundaries of model capabilities [1] Group 3: Industry Impact - Analysts suggest that DeepSeek is driving collaborative innovation and evolution within China's computing ecosystem, integrating model and algorithm innovations with compiler languages and lower-level computing chips [1] - This initiative is expected to promote the growth of China's computing ecosystem [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.65% to close at 3914.01 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.25% to 13146.72 points, indicating improved trading activity with nearly 1.9 trillion yuan in total turnover and around 3400 stocks gaining [1] - The upcoming economic work conference is expected to boost bullish sentiment, while external liquidity improvements may support valuation recovery, suggesting a systemic slow bull market for A-shares in the medium term [1] Metals Sector - Precious metals, particularly silver, have shown strong performance, with spot silver surpassing $57 per ounce and both Shanghai silver and copper reaching historical highs [3] - Macro factors, including a likely 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a relatively weak US dollar, are supporting the financial attributes of metals like silver and copper [3] - Industrial demand for metals is increasing due to AI and new energy developments, with low inventory levels indicating a real supply gap [3] - The copper supply is constrained by declining ore grades and insufficient capital expenditure, while demand is driven by significant projects like the AI research initiative launched by former President Trump [3] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has taken measures to curb excessive expansion in the industry, halting around 2 million tons of illegal capacity [3] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is recovering, with the gaming ETF rising 1.64% following the National Press and Publication Administration's approval of 184 domestic game licenses in November, the highest monthly issuance this year [4] - The normalization of game license approvals has significantly reduced supply-side uncertainties, allowing major companies to launch quality products, which is expected to enhance revenue and performance [4] - Public funds have increased their holdings in the media and internet sector, with the gaming sub-sector's allocation rising to 1.68%, highlighting the sector's attractiveness [5] - Many leading gaming companies possess strong cash flow attributes, with some blue-chip stocks offering dividend yields of 3%-4%, providing defensive value in a low-interest-rate environment [5] - The introduction of AI tools has improved production efficiency in the gaming industry, with reports indicating a 40%-50% increase in 2D art production efficiency and over 30% reduction in outsourcing costs [5] Gold Sector - The gold sector is active, with COMEX gold prices breaking through $4270, and gold ETFs showing positive performance [6] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has risen significantly, supporting gold prices, while geopolitical uncertainties, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions between China and Japan, enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to the anticipated Fed rate cut cycle, increasing geopolitical risks, and a global trend towards de-dollarization [6] AI and Computing Sector - The computing sector continues its upward trend, with communication ETFs and AI-focused ETFs showing significant gains [8] - Strong demand for AI infrastructure capital expenditure is expected, with major cloud providers projected to increase their capital spending significantly in the coming years [8] - The competition among AI giants is driving demand for computing power, benefiting related A-share companies in the chip and server markets [8] - The AI industry is rapidly developing, with substantial investments expected to sustain growth over a longer lifecycle compared to previous technological revolutions [9]

光模块方面，国盛证券表示，反复强调光模块行业正处于高景气周期，AI算力需求持续爆发推动高端 光模块需求快速增长，供给将成为核心矛盾。近期调研发现，头部厂商加速扩产，预计2026年一季度将 迎来产能集中释放，驱动业绩进入新一轮爬坡期。 12月1日，算力概念领涨，创业板人工智能涨超2%，成份股大面积飘红，光模块龙头中际旭创涨超 5%。热门ETF方面，超七成仓位布局算力的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内再涨2.5%，放量成交超 6亿元，资金重启净申购2000万份。 展望2026年算力投资机会，国信证券表示，英伟达的亮眼业绩以及北美CSP的坚定投入从供需两侧验证 了算力基础设施高景气度的延续，考虑到AI投入有望延续高增长，持续看好AI算力基础设施发展。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

12月1日，算力概念领涨，创业板人工智能涨超2%，成份股大面积飘红。其中，算力卫星概念股航宇微 盘中20CM涨停，截至发稿仍大涨超15%，存储芯片北京君正涨超14%，光模块龙头中际旭创涨超5%， 润泽科技、星宸科技、富瀚微、全志科技、金信诺等多股跟涨超3%。 热门ETF方面，超七成仓位布局算力的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内再涨2%，放量成交超6亿 元，资金重启净申购2000万份。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 ▼ | 给合屏 F9 前置权 超级盘加 画线 工具 @ 2 | 创业板人工智能ETF华室 | 159363 | E | 159363.SZ[创业相人工智能ETFS空白 2025/12/01 皮 0.897 幅 2.28%(0.020) 开 0.881 高 0.909 低 | 0.897 | +0.020 +2.28% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MAS 0.874] MA10 0.851] MA20 0.852] MA60 0.8551 MA120 0.7271 | 2025/08/29-2025/ ...

12月1日，算力概念领涨，创业板人工智能涨超2%，成份股大面积飘红。其中，算力卫星概念股航宇微盘中20CM涨停，截至发稿仍大涨超 15%，存储芯片北京君正涨超14%，光模块龙头中际旭创涨超5%，润泽科技、星宸科技、富瀚微、全志科技、金信诺等多股跟涨超3%。 热门ETF方面，超七成仓位布局算力的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）场内再涨2%，放量成交超6亿元，资金重启净申购2000万份。 | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 7 综合屏 F9 前复权 超级叠加 画线 工具 Q 2 | | | 创业板人工智能ETF华宝 | 159363 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 159363.SZ[创业板人工智能ETF华宝] 2025/12/01 收 0.897 幅 2.28%(0.020) 开 0.881 高 0.909 低 | WP | 0 33 | | +0.020 +2.28% | | MA5 0.8741 MA10 0.851] MA20 0.8521 MA60 0.8551 MA120 0.727] 2025/08/29-2025/12/01(61日)▼ | | ...

11 月最受关注重点研究：AI 投资泡沫化了吗？ 20251130 摘要 全球科技巨头对 AI 投入意愿强烈，旨在通过 AI 操作系统融入现有产品， 防御竞争者颠覆，但 AI 高耗能或影响盈利预期。 2026 年全球云服务提供商的经营现金流预计可覆盖 AI 投资，购买转向 租赁模式提高投资杠杆，支付能力并非主要障碍。 AI 技术前景乐观，基于反思功能的持续学习能力将提升重复任务效率和 用户理解，推动生产力变革，尤其在编码和 AIGC 领域。 国内 AI 商业化落地较海外滞后一年，预计 2026 年开启大规模商业化， 并逐步出海，国产算力替代加速是重要方向。 看好"大模型+云"和国产算力环节，推荐阿里巴巴等厂商，以及工业 富联等硬件标的，受益于服务器需求增长。 谷歌 AI 算力需求未来 4-5 年预计每六个月翻倍，带动市场关注度，美股 光模块公司表现良好，推荐中际旭创等谷歌链条企业。 AI 应用赛道渗透率低，关注 0~1 机会，如 AR 加视频和 AI 漫剧，后者 预计明年市场规模可达三四百亿，传媒行业关注 AI 加广告、AI 漫剧及视 频工具赛道。 Q&A 当前 AI 泡沫的主要担忧是什么？ 当前 AI 泡沫 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） | 十九 0 = = = 10 t = 10 t = 10 t = 14 0 0 13 15 14 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中国１１月 澳洲联储公 中国１１月 美联储、瑞 | | | | 贸易帐 | 布利率决议 CPI、PPI | 士央行公布 | | 利率决议 | | | | 国内成品油 | 加拿大央行 | | | 迎调价窗口 | 公布利率决 | 欧佩克公布 | | 月度原油市 | 议 | | | 恒生指数系 | 场报告 | | | 列三季度季 | EIA公布月 | | | 检结果生效 | 度短期能源 A公布月 | | | 展望报告 | | 度原油市场 | | 报告 | | | | 2025中国 | | | | 铝族金属市 | | 2025算力 | | 场年会 | | 产业生态高 | | 质量发展大 | | | | ਵ | | | | 甘六 15 甘七 20 初二 21 | 16 | =+ 19 冬月 初一 | | 国家统计局 | 美国11月失 2025小米 | 海南自贸港 日本央行公 | | 发布 1 1 月 业率、11月 " 人车家全 正式启动全 布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Maxinlin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd. is responding to an inquiry from the Shanghai Stock Exchange regarding its joint investment with related parties and plans to increase capital in a controlled enterprise, Photon Computing [9][10]. Group 1: Investment Details - The company plans to invest between 201 million and 311 million yuan in the joint venture, holding a 99.5% stake through the partnership with Bai Bing, who holds 0.5% [9][10]. - The investment is positioned as a financial investment aimed at enhancing operational capital and expanding market share for Photon Computing [10][11]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The funding for this investment will primarily come from the company's own funds and bank loans, which may increase the company's liabilities and financial expenses [7][42]. - The company has set up mechanisms such as performance commitments and buyback clauses to mitigate risks associated with the investment [45]. Group 3: Market and Competitive Landscape - The industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly in the field of supernodes, which are critical for computing power and technological competitiveness [3][21]. - Photon Computing is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for intelligent computing centers, but faces risks from potential policy changes and market dynamics [2][20]. Group 4: Operational Synergies - The investment is expected to create synergies between the company's existing aviation component business and Photon Computing's operations, enhancing overall competitiveness in the computing market [37][39]. - The company aims to leverage Photon Computing's technology in optical interconnects to improve its own computing service offerings [38][44]. Group 5: Risk Management - The company has outlined various risks associated with the investment, including market competition, product innovation, and talent retention, which could impact Photon Computing's performance [3][4][5]. - A thorough due diligence process is in place to ensure compliance and mitigate potential risks during the investment phase [18][29].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices decline, indicating a lack of strong buying interest among investors [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The market exhibits a pattern of divergence, where superficial gains do not reflect the underlying unevenness in sector performance, suggesting a cautious approach from investors [2][4]. - The early morning surge followed by a gradual decline indicates that funds are reluctant to increase positions at current levels, leading to a structural repair and stock selection strategy rather than a broad market recovery [6][26]. Sector Performance - The day's market highlights a rotation among sectors rather than a unified bullish trend, with both gainers and losers present, reflecting a careful exploration of opportunities [3][30]. - Key sectors driving market interest include: - **Technology Hardware**: Strength driven by the upcoming launch of Huawei's Mate80 series and Google's competitive moves against Nvidia [8][10]. - **Solid-State Batteries**: Anticipation of semi-solid battery applications in the near term, with full solid-state batteries expected to reach significant testing phases by 2026-2027 [12]. - **Silicone Sector**: Price increases announced by Dow Chemical (10%-20%) have improved market expectations for related companies' profitability [13][14]. Investor Behavior - The market's trading volume has decreased, indicating a decline in participation enthusiasm, with some previously popular stocks experiencing significant drops [18][19]. - Investors are adopting a cautious stance, favoring quick trades and diversified bets, which may lead to short-lived market trends [20][21]. Institutional Perspectives - Institutions express a consensus that while the downside for indices is limited, upward movement requires specific conditions such as volume support and sustained sector interest [22][24]. - Different institutions provide varying outlooks, with some expecting consolidation around key index levels while others see potential for continued recovery if certain thresholds are met [23][24]. Investment Strategy - The current market environment suggests a focus on sectors with mid-term logic and high earnings visibility, rather than chasing short-term gains [26][29]. - Recommended areas for investment include: - Leading companies benefiting from long-term AI demand in technology hardware. - Companies involved in semi-solid battery production, which may gain an early advantage. - Chemical and cyclical sectors that can translate price increases into stable profit margins [29].