Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, along with related indicators such as spreads, basis, and price ratios, to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spreads**: Provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, covering both spot - futures spreads and inter - delivery spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents ratios and their changes for different cross - variety combinations, such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Shows the basis, its change, and the percentile since listing for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), as well as the internal rate of return (IRR) for TS [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Reports the inter - delivery spreads and their changes and historical percentiles for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides cross - variety spreads and their changes for different combinations of treasury bond futures [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Prices**: Presents domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: Reports the basis, its change, and historical 1 - year quantiles for different combinations of precious metal spot and futures [4]. - **Price Ratios**: Shows price ratios and their changes for different precious metal combinations [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Provides data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Reports inventory and holding data and their changes for precious metals in different markets [4]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes and their changes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Provides settlement price indexes and their changes for different container shipping routes, as well as Shanghai export container freight rates and their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Reports futures prices, their changes, and basis data for container shipping futures contracts [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [6]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, including economic sentiment indexes, inflation rates, and small - business confidence indexes [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents economic indicators and events in different domestic sectors, such as port inventories, to - port forecasts, and production - sales ratios [9].

| 利润息额 | 658. 425, 693.67 | 593, 794, 476. 90 | 0. 1088 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 | 580, 592, 815. 78 | 529, 565, 976. 34 | 9.64 | | 东的净利润 | | | | | 归属于上市公司股 东的扣除非经常性 | 529,251,941.98 | 520, 430, 445. 63 | 1. 70 | | 损益的净利润 | | | | | 经营活动产生的现 | 302, 643, 429, 98 | 716, 258, 046. 37 | -57.75 | | 金流量净额 | | | | | 加权平均净资产收 | 5.62 | 5.27 | 增加0.35个百分点 | | 益率(%) | | | | | 基本每股收益(元/ | 0. 4301 | 0. 3823 | 12.50 | | 股) | | | | | 稀释每股收益(元/ | 0. 4301 | 0. 3823 | 12. 50 | | 股) | | | | 半年报显示，嘉化能源脂肪醇（酸）系列产品表现亮 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; the long - term trend of industrial silver is downward, suggesting short - selling silver on rallies [1]. - For base metals, copper is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term; electrolytic aluminum is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing; alumina is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, and long positions in far - month contracts can be considered; industrial silicon is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing; lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time; polysilicon is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan, and tin is expected to be in an interval shock [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, steel is expected to be in a balanced supply - demand situation with obvious structural differentiation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; iron ore is expected to have a slightly stronger supply - demand situation, and the market is expected to be in a shock; coking coal has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and short - selling the 2509 contract can be tried [5]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal is expected to follow the international cost - end in the medium term; corn futures prices are expected to be volatile and weaker; sugar futures can be short - sold, and call options can be sold; cotton can wait and see with a shock strategy; logs can wait and see; palm oil is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term; eggs are expected to be volatile and weaker; pork is expected to be in a shock adjustment [6][7][8]. - For energy and chemicals, LLDPE is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; PVC can wait and see; PX can wait and see, and PTA can look for short - term positive spread opportunities and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term; rubber is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term; glass can wait and see; PP is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; MEG can wait and see; crude oil can look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel; styrene is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term; soda ash can wait and see [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On Friday, precious metals fluctuated. International gold prices rose 0.08% to $3398 per ounce, and international silver prices rose 0.09% to $38.325 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The White House may not increase taxes on 100 - ounce gold bars; a Fed official supports three interest rate cuts this year; the central bank increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months; domestic gold ETF funds flowed back, and gold and silver inventories in different regions changed [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on gold; short - sell silver on rallies [1]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, copper prices fluctuated and were slightly stronger [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The US dollar index is expected to weaken; the supply of copper ore is still tight, and the scrap copper is in short supply; the global visible inventory increased by 27,000 tons, and the domestic consumption is in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,685 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The smelters maintain high - load production, and the operating capacity increases slightly; the consumption has no obvious improvement, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate is stable [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker, suggesting waiting and seeing [2]. - **Alumina** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the 2509 contract of alumina closed at 3170 yuan/ton, down 2.19% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The operating capacity of alumina is stable; electrolytic aluminum smelters maintain high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short term, focusing on the support at 3100 yuan; long positions in far - month contracts can be considered [3]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 8710 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and a decrease in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price followed the rise of coking coal last week; a "counter - involution" initiative boosted market sentiment; the spot price declined slightly; the supply increased, and the demand of different downstream industries changed [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, suggesting waiting and seeing [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main LC2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, up 7.73% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A mining area of CATL stopped production; the supply - side production capacity recovered, and the demand in August was in the peak season; the inventory increased due to supply recovery [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to rise to 85,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and the subsequent price drivers need to focus on the resumption time [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main 11 - contract closed at 50,790 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with an increase in positions and an increase in warehouse receipts [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was in line with expectations; the photovoltaic installation demand in the third quarter was pessimistic; new brands were added for futures registration [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 45,000 - 53,000 yuan [3]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On Friday, tin prices fluctuated and were weaker [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is weak; the inventory decreased by 330 tons [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in an interval shock in the short term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar** - **Market Performance**: The main 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3207 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of building materials is neutral, and the inventory pressure is small; the demand for plates is stable; the futures discount of rebar widened, and the market sentiment cooled [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the 2510 contract, with a reference range of 3160 - 3240 yuan [5]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 793 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand is slightly stronger; the iron - water production decreased slightly, and the steel mill profit margin expanded; the supply is in line with the seasonal law, and the inventory accumulation may be slower than the seasonal law [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a reference range of 770 - 810 yuan [5]. - **Coking Coal** - **Market Performance**: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1213.5 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The iron - water production decreased, and the steel mill profit margin narrowed; the fifth round of coke price increase was implemented; the inventory in different links was differentiated, and the overall supply - demand is relatively loose [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, and try to short - sell the 2509 contract, with a reference range of 1160 - 1230 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans fell last Friday [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is loose in the near - term and expected to be large in the long - term; the demand is dominated by South America, and the export demand of US soybeans is weak [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the international cost - end in the medium term, and focus on the weather in production areas and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of corn was weaker, and the spot price fell [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Wheat substitutes for corn in feed demand, and the import of grains increased; the new - crop corn cost decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weaker [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [6]. - **Sugar** - **Market Performance**: ICE raw sugar rose 0.43% last week, and Zhengzhou sugar fell 0.84% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Brazil increased, and the domestic processing sugar put pressure on the spot price; Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: US cotton futures rebounded last Friday, and international crude oil prices continued to fall [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The US cotton export contract reached 108.20% of the annual expected export volume; the domestic cotton futures rebounded, and the textile and clothing export decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see, with a shock strategy in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Logs** - **Market Performance**: The 09 contract of logs closed at 830.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.10% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of logs rose, and the market has expectations for the future; it is mainly based on the delivery logic in the short term, fluctuating around 800 yuan/cubic meter [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [7]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose slightly last Friday [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production in Malaysia increased seasonally, and the export decreased; it is expected to accumulate inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term and more long - allocated in the medium term, focusing on the production in production areas and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of eggs continued to rebound, and the spot price rose slightly over the weekend [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The egg - laying rate of hens decreased seasonally, and the demand of downstream food factories increased seasonally; the supply is sufficient, and the cost decreased [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be volatile and weaker [7]. - **Pork** - **Market Performance**: The 2509 contract of pork was stronger, and the spot price rebounded over the weekend [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The consumption decreased seasonally, and the supply increased in August; the supply will continue to increase in the medium term [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price is expected to be in a shock adjustment [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of LLDPE continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The domestic supply increased, and the import is expected to decrease; the demand for agricultural films increased, and other demands were stable [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [9]. - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: The V09 contract closed at 4998, down 0.1% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak; the inventory accumulated [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [9]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: The PX price was 831 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price was 4670 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of PX increased, and the supply of PTA decreased; the polyester load was stable, and the inventory pressure was relieved [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for PX; look for short - term positive spread opportunities for PTA and short - sell processing fees or short far - month contracts in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber** - **Market Performance**: The price of rubber fluctuated and was stronger last week, with the RU2601 contract up 2.57% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: The raw material prices in Thailand were stable, and the downstream tire production and inventory situation changed [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and stronger in the short term [10]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: The FG09 contract closed at 1065, up 0.3% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The production and sales of glass decreased, and the inventory accumulated; the downstream demand was general [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price has limited room to fall, suggesting waiting and seeing [10]. - **PP** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of PP continued to fluctuate slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, and the demand in different downstream industries was differentiated [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [10]. - **MEG** - **Market Performance**: The spot price of MEG in East China was 4465 yuan/ton, and the basis was 75 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is at a high level, and the import is expected to be low; the polyester load is stable, and the inventory pressure is relieved [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [10]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: Oil prices fell continuously last week due to economic concerns and geopolitical factors [10]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand in the US is stable; the refining profit is at a high level [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities at around 520 yuan/barrel [10]. - **Styrene** - **Market Performance**: The main contract of styrene fluctuated slightly on Friday; the domestic and overseas market prices and the basis situation are as described [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of pure benzene and styrene is expected to increase slightly; the downstream demand is under pressure, and the export demand is a focus [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is expected to be volatile and weaker in the short term, and short positions in far - month contracts can be considered in the long - term [11]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: The sa09 contract closed at 1242, down 0.4% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the inventory is high; the downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to reduce production [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see [11].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **real estate industry** and its recovery, along with insights into the **construction** and **metals** sectors, particularly focusing on **small metals** and **T metals**. Real Estate Industry Insights - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through supply-side measures such as controlling new land supply and revitalizing existing land and properties, with a focus on acquiring existing residential properties. A total of **4.4 trillion yuan** in special bonds will be issued, an increase of **500 billion yuan** from last year, with **500 billion yuan** allocated for land acquisition and existing property purchases [2][3]. - In January and February, key cities saw new home transaction areas increase by **5%** and second-hand home transactions rise by **29%**, indicating a recovery trend from the previous year [3][4]. - Future development directions in the real estate sector include focusing on core city developers and property management companies, as well as quality commercial real estate firms benefiting from domestic demand policies [5]. New City Holdings (新城控股) Analysis - New City Holdings has a strong financial position with **558 billion yuan** in interest-bearing debt, manageable through rental income from shopping malls, indicating controlled debt pressure [6][9]. - The company has a competitive edge in third and fourth-tier cities, with its May Square showing a **11%** increase in same-store rental growth and a high occupancy rate of **97.9%** [6][11]. - The company’s light-asset construction and management business is expected to grow significantly, with a **63%** increase in rental income from May Square [12]. Construction Industry Insights - The government’s fiscal policy is set to increase special bond issuance to **14.4 trillion yuan**, focusing on major projects, which will stimulate the construction industry and related sectors like steel and cement [7][8]. - Investment opportunities in the construction sector are identified in infrastructure and supply-side reforms, recommending major state-owned enterprises and companies involved in technological upgrades and high-energy acquisitions [8]. Metals Market Insights - The small metals market is experiencing a significant supply-demand gap, currently at **20%**, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains. Prices are expected to continue rising [14]. - T metals face severe supply constraints, with a potential **70%** drop in output from a major Russian mine, leading to a projected **20%** increase in demand across various sectors, including military and renewable energy [15][16]. - Current prices for T metals have reached **420,000 yuan/ton**, with expectations for further increases due to persistent supply shortages [17]. Additional Insights - The bio-aviation fuel sector is projected to see rapid growth, driven by mandatory blending requirements in Europe and China, with significant demand expected by **2025** [22][24]. - Companies in the biofuel sector, such as Jia Environmental and Excellence Performance, are highlighted for their growth potential and cost advantages in production [26][27][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the real estate, construction, and metals industries, along with specific company analyses and market trends.

Core Viewpoint - The green transformation of the energy and chemical industry in Western China and ecological environment restoration are crucial topics for national strategy under the "dual carbon" goals [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges and Opportunities - Western China is a vital base for national energy security but faces severe challenges such as fragile ecological environment, water resource scarcity, and limited environmental carrying capacity [1]. - The region's unique situation of "rich coal, poor water, and weak ecology" necessitates the development of green energy and chemical industries and ecological restoration as essential paths for high-quality development [1]. - Balancing traditional energy development with ecological protection is a pressing issue, especially under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goals [2]. Group 2: Future Trends in Energy and Chemical Industry - The energy and chemical industry in Western China must transition from high energy consumption and high emissions to a green and sustainable development path [2]. - The trends of greening, low-carbonization, and circular economy are becoming inevitable for the energy and chemical industry [2]. - Innovations in clean production processes and ecological restoration technologies are critical for achieving high-quality regional economic development and sustainable ecological balance [2]. Group 3: Conference Insights - The conference featured nine thematic sub-forums covering clean and efficient use of traditional energy, low-carbon transformation, and core concerns regarding ecological environment governance [3]. - Reports from six academicians and other experts showcased the latest research findings, providing various pathways for the green development of the Western energy and chemical sector [2].

急需破解能源开发与生态保护的平衡难题 会上，刘忠范、贺泓、张锦、徐春明、曾宏波、杨涛6位院士和胡杰分别作了大会报告，展现了最新研 究成果，为西部能源化工的绿色发展提供了多种路径。 本次会议共设9个专题分论坛，涵盖了传统能源的清洁高效利用、面向未来的低碳变革以及对生态环境 治理的核心关切。 克拉玛依市委常委、副市长韩敏表示，我国西部地区凭借丰富的油气资源，成为国家能源战略的重要支 撑带，能源化工产业更已成为推动区域经济发展的支柱。但西部地区生态环境本就脆弱，传统能源开发 与生态保护之间的平衡是必须面对的课题。尤其在"双碳"目标指引下，如何让能源化工产业摆脱高能 耗、高排放的路径依赖，走出一条绿色可持续的发展道路，成为整个行业转型升级的关键。展望未来， 绿色化、低碳化、循环化已成为能源化工产业的必然趋势。从清洁生产工艺的突破到生态修复技术的创 新，从传统能源的高效利用到新能源的多元融合，每一步探索都关乎区域经济的高质量发展与生态环境 的永续平衡。 中国石油大学(北京)副校长、克拉玛依校区党委书记兼校长李军指出，当前，西部能源化工产业正处于 绿色转型的关键时期——既要起到保障国家能源供给的"压舱石"作用，又要全力守 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is strong with increased trading volume, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Gold is expected to continue its oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of US additional tariffs [13]. - The US dollar is expected to maintain short - term oscillations [19]. - The economic downward pressure on the US stock index futures needs more data for verification, and attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [23]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous, so the long - position rhythm should be carefully grasped [25]. - The internal strength and external weakness of soybean meal remain unchanged, and its operating center is expected to steadily rise [27]. - The price of edible oils is expected to continue to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but its continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate [32]. - The market speculation sentiment of coking coal and coke is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - The short - term reverse spread structure of live pigs may continue, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - For lead, it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; for arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [48]. - For zinc, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. - For copper, it is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - For nickel, it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. - For crude oil, attention should be paid to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. - For caustic soda, the downward space is limited [71]. - For pulp, the futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - For PVC, the market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - For urea, the futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - For styrene, it is recommended to pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury auctioned $42 billion worth of 10 - year Treasury bonds, with a winning bid rate of 4.255% and a bid - to - cover ratio of 2.35 [11]. - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors and more secondary sanctions on Russia. Gold prices oscillated and declined, and the market is in a certain risk - aversion sentiment [12]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the progress of US additional tariffs, and gold will continue to oscillate [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists from September 29, 2025, to June next year [14]. - The margin trading balance has risen back above 2 trillion yuan. The A - share market is strong, and it is likely to rise in the short - term without more macro - negative factors [15]. - Investment suggestion: Allocate various stock indices evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips [17]. - Fed Governor Lisa Cook believes that the July employment report may indicate an inflection point in the US economy [18]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on India. The pressure on Russia to cease fire is increasing, but the actual effect is expected to be limited, and the US dollar will oscillate in the short - term [19]. - Investment suggestion: The US dollar will maintain short - term oscillations [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - There are ongoing differences in the US - Japan trade agreement, and there are new variables in tariffs, but companies investing in the US are exempted [20]. - Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on chip products, but companies that transfer production to the US will be exempted. Apple CEO Cook and Trump announced a new $100 billion investment plan [21]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. The overall tariff level remains around 18%, and the market risk appetite has recovered [22]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the callback risk at the current level [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 6, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan [24]. - The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the rhythm of its strengthening is relatively tortuous [24]. - Investment suggestion: Carefully grasp the long - position rhythm [25]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 12.257 million tons of soybeans in July, with an average daily export volume of 533,000 tons, a 9% increase compared to July last year [26]. - The supply - demand situation has little change. The CBOT soybean futures continue to oscillate weakly. The domestic import cost of soybeans supports the soybean meal futures price [26]. - Investment suggestion: The internal strength and external weakness remain unchanged, and the operating center of soybean meal is expected to rise [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in July increased by 9.01% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons, while the production from August 1 - 5 decreased by 17.27% month - on - month [28][30]. - The edible oil market oscillated strongly, with soybean oil leading the rise. The palm oil production in August may be affected by rainfall, and the market is more inclined to long soybean oil [30]. - Investment suggestion: The price of edible oils is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [30]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - On August 6, the price of thermal coal in the northern port market was strong. The over - production inspection continues, and the coal price is expected to remain firm in the short - term, but the continuous rebound is difficult [31]. - Investment suggestion: The over - production inspection from August to September may lead to a 2 - 3% decline in quarterly coal production, and the coal price is supported but difficult to rebound continuously [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - ArcelorMittal Mexico temporarily shut down its blast furnace production due to equipment failures [32]. - The iron ore price oscillated. Pay attention to the impact of the military parade production restrictions in mid - August, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. - Investment suggestion: The iron ore price is expected to oscillate [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Mongolia's ETT Company held an online auction for coking coal, and all 32,000 tons of the 1/3 coking raw coal on offer failed to be sold [34]. - The coking coal futures price rose sharply, mainly due to supply - side news. The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. - Investment suggestion: The market speculation sentiment is strong in the short - term, and the impact on the actual fundamentals depends on subsequent policies [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - Shennong Group sold 174,700 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 327 million yuan. Dabeinong sold 593,900 pigs in July, with a sales revenue of 984 million yuan [36][37]. - Group farms face the need to reduce the weight of pigs. The market's selling pressure remains unchanged, and the short - term reverse spread structure may continue [37]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the 9 - 1 and 9 - 5 reverse spread opportunities [37]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugarcane planting area as of August 1 reached 5.731 million hectares, an increase of about 164,000 hectares compared to the same period last year [39]. - Yunnan's sugar sales rate as of the end of July was 80.68%, and Guangxi's was 85.01%. The market pricing has shifted to processed sugar [40][42]. - Investment suggestion: The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the operating range of 5500/5600 - 5900 yuan/ton [42]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in China from July 1 - 31 were 1.834 million units, a 7% increase compared to July last year [43]. - In late July, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises decreased by 7.4% month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [45]. - Investment suggestion: Adopt an oscillating trading strategy and be cautious with light positions [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $41.92 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [47]. - The Shanghai lead futures rose slightly. The short - term bottom is further confirmed, but attention should be paid to the risk of the weak fundamentals [48]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and manage positions well; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 5, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $13.16 per ton, and Nyrstar received A$135 million in support from the Australian government [49][50]. - The Shanghai zinc futures rebounded and oscillated. The LME inventory continued to decline, while the domestic social inventory increased. The market is expected to oscillate [50]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side, hold low - position speculative long positions in the short - term and manage positions well; pay attention to medium - term positive spread opportunities [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - China's Salt Lake's 20,000 - ton - per - year lithium carbonate project was officially put into production and sales [52]. - Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China increased in July. The demand is growing, and the supply is uncertain. The futures price may be affected by news this week [53]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see before the risk event is settled, and stop profit on the 9 - 11 reverse spread [54]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - BHP and Lundin Mining plan to apply for investment incentives in Argentina for their Vicuna copper project [55]. - An Indonesian smelter's maintenance will affect the electrolytic copper output by about 20,000 tons [56]. - FireFly Metals' Green Bay copper - gold project in Canada has strong development potential [57]. - The copper price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and it is recommended to pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. - Investment suggestion: Wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the internal - external reverse spread strategy [58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Ronghui International plans to acquire 60% of the equity of an Indonesian nickel mining company for $9.9 million [59]. - The LME nickel inventory increased, and the SHFE nickel warrant decreased. The nickel price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [61][62]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities on rallies [62]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG decreased for propane and increased for butane on August 6 [63]. - The US C3 inventory increased in the week ending August 1. The Panama Canal's passage situation has attracted market attention [64]. - Investment suggestion: The market inflection point has not arrived, and attention should be paid to US policy changes [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US announced additional tariffs on India due to its purchase of Russian energy [66]. - The EIA commercial crude oil inventory decreased in the week ending August 1. The oil price turned from rising to falling [67]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the impact of US policies towards Russia on the market [68]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong remained stable on August 6, with the supply increasing slightly and the demand being moderate [69]. - The caustic soda futures price is expected to decline, but the downward space is limited [71]. - Investment suggestion: The downward space is limited [71]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market was stable with only slight increases on August 6 [72]. - The pulp futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to decline following the commodity market [72]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased on August 6. The futures price oscillated strongly, but the spot market trading was light [73]. - The PVC market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. - Investment suggestion: The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - China's urea enterprise inventory decreased by 3.24% week - on - week to 887,600 tons on August 6 [74]. - The urea futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. - Investment suggestion: The futures price is expected to oscillate [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports decreased by 10,000 tons to 152,000 tons on August 6 compared to July 30 [76]. - The styrene - pure benzene spread is recommended to be narrowed, and attention should be paid to the profit - taking opportunity [77]. - Investment suggestion: Pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity of the position to narrow the styrene - pure benzene spread [77].

1. Macroeconomy - **Core View**: Domestically, the manufacturing PMI has declined marginally and is significantly weaker than the seasonal level in previous years, indicating downward pressure on the economy. The economy has entered a policy observation window, and if economic data continues to weaken, incremental policies may be implemented. Overseas, the next few months will be a crucial observation period for inflation trends. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has been fluctuating, and changes in US inflation data deserve close attention [2] - **Market Information**: Modi is scheduled to visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit; Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with exemptions for companies like Apple building factories in the US; Trump has ordered an additional 25% tariff on India; the US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing differences, and the US plans to increase tariffs by 15%; there are signs of a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky; Fed officials have hinted at a possible rate cut; the 10 - year US Treasury bond auction was unexpectedly weak [1][3][5][28] 2. RMB Exchange Rate - **Core Logic**: Based on the "dollar - mid - price - spot price" analysis framework, the market has fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September, and the dollar index is likely to consolidate. With the central bank's guidance and the trade surplus from January to June, the short - term exchange rate is expected to find support in the range of 7.15 - 7.23, with a central anchor of 7.20 [4] - **Market Information**: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are reasonable; Trump will announce the appointment of a new Fed governor in 2 - 3 days; trade negotiations between Switzerland and the US have not made progress; Trump plans to impose tariffs on chips and semiconductors, and additional tariffs on India and other countries [3] 3. Stock Index - **Core View**: The stock market continued to rise yesterday, mainly driven by foreign capital inflows and active participation of hot money. The CSI 1000 index showed relative strength, while the Shanghai 50 index was weak. Short - term external tariff adjustments have increased risk - aversion sentiment, while foreign capital inflows have brought vitality. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to face upward pressure [5] - **Market Information**: The margin balance has returned to the two - trillion - yuan mark; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods and plans to levy high tariffs on chips [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Sell cash - secured put options [5] 4. Treasury Bonds - **Core Logic**: Although the bond market's gains narrowed in the afternoon, there are signs of sentiment improvement, such as relative desensitization to the strong performance of the stock and commodity markets and continuous net purchases by funds [7] - **Market Information**: South Korea will implement a temporary visa - free policy for Chinese group tourists; the US plans to sell weapons to Ukraine [6] - **Investment Strategy**: Appropriate layout of long positions [7] 5. Container Shipping - **Core View**: Some mainstream shipping companies have continuously lowered the spot cabin quotes for European routes, which led to the lower opening of futures prices. Maersk's adjustment of shipping routes may increase port congestion and affect the effective capacity of European routes, which is beneficial for the long - term futures prices. However, the decline in spot quotes of some shipping companies has limited the upside of futures prices. In the future, the EC is expected to be in a volatile or slightly downward trend [9] - **Market Information**: The US has imposed a 30% tariff on South Africa, causing Maersk to terminate direct shipping between the US and South Africa; Trump plans to impose tariffs on imported drugs [8][9] 6. Commodities 6.1 Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Core View**: Due to weak US economic data and government pressure on the Fed, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, driving up the prices of gold and silver. In the medium - to - long - term, the trend is bullish, and in the short - term, the market is mainly controlled by bulls [10] - **Market Information**: Fed official Kashkari believes two rate cuts this year are appropriate [10] 6.2 Copper - **Core View**: Copper prices have shown a slight correction. The difference between LME copper and COMEX copper prices has stabilized. Short - term oversold conditions in COMEX copper may boost the valuation of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak demand [11][12] - **Market Information**: US ISM non - manufacturing data is poor [12] 6.3 Zinc - **Core View**: The continuous decline in overseas zinc inventories provides support for zinc prices. Although the domestic fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, the bottom of zinc prices is expected to be supported. In the short - term, zinc prices are likely to be volatile with a relatively strong trend [12][13] 6.4 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Core View**: The trend of nickel is volatile, and the overall logic has not changed significantly. The price of nickel ore has stabilized with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are differentiated. The supply of stainless steel is strong, and the demand is weak, but the spot price is relatively firm. The supply of nickel sulfate is tight [14][15] 6.5 Tin - **Core View**: Tin prices have shown some resilience. Supply - side issues have not been resolved quickly, and if the situation in Myanmar drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [17] 6.6 Carbonate Lithium - **Core View**: The futures price of carbonate lithium has fluctuated higher. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain has weakened slightly. Supply - side disturbances still exist, and the issue of mining certificates continues to ferment. It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile and slightly upward state in the near term [18][19] 6.7 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Core View**: Cost - side factors drive up prices, and sentiment continues to stimulate the market. In the short - term, the trend is bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside of industrial silicon is limited, and opportunities for buying on dips should be noted. For polysilicon, attention should be paid to industrial integration [20][22][23] 6.8 Lead - **Core View**: After two days of bottom - range oscillation, lead prices rose according to the peak - season expectation. The supply of primary lead is relatively strong, and the cost of recycled lead can support prices. The demand side is approaching the peak season, and the willingness to stock up for production has increased. In the short - term, it is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [24] 6.9 Black Metals 6.9.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Core View**: The inspection and reduction of coal mine over - production are ongoing, and there are also news of steel production reduction. Although it is the off - season, the demand shows the characteristic of being not weak in the off - season. The near - term contracts face delivery pressure, and the upper space is limited, but the lower space is supported [25][26] - **Market Information**: The government plans to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027; some coal mines have production reduction expectations [25] 6.9.2 Iron Ore - **Core View**: The rise of coking coal suppresses the price of iron ore. The profit of steel mills has weakened significantly, and the seesaw effect between iron ore and coking coal is more prominent. The price of iron ore is expected to face upward pressure [27] - **Market Information**: Some coal mines have production reduction expectations, and the output and inventory of steel products have changed [27] 6.9.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Core View**: The expectation of coking coal production reduction supports the strengthening of the market. The 5 - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the coking profit has been repaired. In the medium - to - long - term, the outlook for coking coal and coke is not pessimistic, but attention should be paid to macro events [28][29] - **Market Information**: Trump has imposed tariffs on related countries; the government plans to renovate rural roads; the production and inventory data of coking coal and coke have changed [28] 6.9.4 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Core View**: The cost support for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has strengthened. The profits of steel mills are good, which provides support for the demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. However, in the long - term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the support from the supply side is insufficient. In the short - term, the market still has some expectations for supply - side contraction [30][31][32] 6.10 Energy and Chemicals 6.10.1 Crude Oil - **Core View**: The overnight crude - oil market冲高回落 and closed down. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include the decline in US crude - oil and refined - product inventories, Saudi Arabia's significant increase in official prices, and Trump's tariff measures. Bearish factors include the possible cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus increases, and the upward space is limited [33][35] - **Market Information**: Saudi Arabia has raised the official price of light oil in September; US EIA weekly data shows changes in inventory, production, and trade; Trump has imposed additional tariffs on Indian goods [33][34] 6.10.2 LPG - **Core View**: The LPG market is in a low - level volatile state. The supply side is still relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The overall situation remains loose [36][37][38] 6.10.3 PTA - PX - **Core View**: The prices of PX - PTA have declined under the influence of commodity sentiment. The supply of PX is expected to increase in August, and the profit margin has been compressed. The supply of PTA has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The demand for polyester has declined, but there is a peak - season expectation. Currently, the PTA processing fee is at a historical low, and there is an opportunity to expand the processing fee by buying on dips [39][40][41] 6.10.4 MEG - Bottle Grade - **Core View**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the price of ethylene glycol has weakened. The supply side has increased, and the profit has been compressed. The inventory of the East China port has decreased slightly. In general, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the third quarter, and the price is expected to be in a relatively strong volatile state [42] 6.10.5 Methanol - **Core View**: The "anti - involution" sentiment has subsided, and the methanol market has returned to the fundamentals, which are currently weak. Factors such as the shutdown of Xingxing, the high - volume shipment from Iran in July, and poor downstream profits should be noted. In the short - term, the fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to downstream resistance and the port - inland price difference [43][44] 6.10.6 PP - **Core View**: The PP market is in a short - term volatile state. The supply side is under pressure from new device production and the recovery of PDH profit. The demand side is still weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand cannot be fundamentally resolved in the short - term. It is affected by macro sentiment and coking - coal prices [45][46] 6.10.7 PE - **Core View**: The PE market is currently affected by external factors and lacks a directional driver. The supply side has increased, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The inventory of LLDPE is at a high level. However, downstream orders are expected to recover in August, and the demand is expected to pick up [47][48] 6.10.8 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Core View**: Pure benzene: The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has decreased slightly. The market is expected to be in a volatile state, and it is advisable to reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene by selling at high prices. Styrene: The supply is expected to increase in August and September, and the market is expected to be weak. It is advisable to short on rallies and reduce the price difference between pure benzene and styrene [49][50] 6.10.9 Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The fuel - oil market is still weak. The supply has improved, and the demand has shown some recovery. The inventory is at a high level, and the short - term driving force is downward [52] 6.10.10 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: The low - sulfur fuel - oil market has been dragged down by crude - oil prices. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It is advisable to have a bearish allocation [53] 6.10.11 Asphalt - **Core View**: The asphalt market is weakly volatile following the cost side. The supply has increased, and the demand has been suppressed by weather and capital shortages. In the short - term, the fundamentals have weakened, but in the long - term, the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season [53][54] 6.10.12 Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has fluctuated, and the supply is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the supply - demand pattern is that supply is stronger than demand. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [55] - **Glass**: The market is affected by policy expectations and fundamentals. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in a weak - balance state. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [56] - **Caustic Soda**: As it approaches August, the 09 contract may start the delivery logic. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is stable. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the peak - season performance [57] 6.10.13 Pulp - **Core View**: The pulp market has support on dips. The supply and inventory are at high levels, and the demand is difficult to see a significant long - term increase. However, the demand may be seasonally boosted in August. The market has adjusted with the decline in sentiment and is expected to be supported at the current level [58][59] 6.10.14 Logs - **Core View**: The "autumn fat contract" has opened. The price of the 09 contract revolves around the warehouse - receipt cost. Non - industrial customers are advised to trade in a range, and industrial customers can hedge to lock in profits [61] 6.10.15 Propylene - **Core View**: The propylene market is in a weakly volatile state. The cost side is affected by external factors, the supply side is relatively loose, and the demand side has not changed much. The Shandong market has strengthened due to the reduction in the supply - demand gap [63][64] 6.11 Agricultural Products 6.11.1 Hogs - **Core View**: The price of hogs is weakly stable, with strong supply and weak demand. The market has the sentiment of withholding hogs from sale. It is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [66] 6.11.2 Oilseeds - **Core View**: The outer - market US soybeans have fallen due to concerns about new - crop exports and favorable planting weather. The inner - market has given back the sentiment - driven increase. The supply of imported soybeans is expected to face a gap after December. The short - term decline space of domestic soybean meal is limited, and the market is gradually pricing in the supply gap of the far - month contracts. For rapeseed meal, the near - month contracts are relatively strong, and the far - month contracts are expected to de - stock faster. It is advisable to go long on the far - month contracts on dips [67][68] 6.11.3 Oils - **Core View**: The vegetable - oil market is in a slightly upward volatile state recently, with soybean oil being relatively stronger within the sector. The supply pressure of palm oil has increased, the soybean - producing areas lack weather - driven factors, and the driving force for rapeseed oil is limited. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and trade relations [69] 6.11.4 Corn and Starch - **Core View**: The corn market is in a weakly volatile state, and the trading is dull. The price of corn has declined slightly in the Northeast, and the demand is still weak. The price of corn starch is generally stable, and the demand from the syrup industry provides some support [70]

格隆汇8月6日丨宝丰能源(600989.SH)在互动平台表示，公司生产经营一切正常，目前主要产品均满产 满销，不存在任何应披露而未披露的信息。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: The price trend is volatile, and it has not yet broken out of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see [10][11][12]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate each stock index evenly. The market remains in a state of high - risk preference, where it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [13][15][16]. - US Dollar Index: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17][20][21]. - US Stock Index Futures: Whether the economic downward pressure intensifies still needs more data verification. Attention should be paid to the callback risk at the current level [22][23][24]. - Treasury Bond Futures: August is a favorable period for the bond market. It is recommended to look for short - term opportunities to narrow the spread between T09 - 12 contracts when the bond market sentiment warms up [25][26][27]. - Agricultural Products (Beans Meal): The internal strength and external weakness will continue. The operating center of beans meal will rise [28][30][31]. - Agricultural Products (Edible Oils): For palm oil, do not short. Consider gradually laying out long positions in the 01 contract when the price pulls back to 8800 yuan/ton. For soybean oil, it is recommended to choose the 01 contract for long positions [32][33][34]. - Agricultural Products (Cotton): The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. There may be a rebound before a large number of new cotton hits the market [35][37][38]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): The upward movement of the price difference between rice and flour is expected to be weak [39][40]. - Black Metals (Steam Coal): It is expected that the coal price will rise to around 670 yuan (the long - term agreement price) and fluctuate. Pay attention to the price performance after the decline in rigid demand [41][42]. - Black Metals (Iron Ore): The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is difficult to fall sharply in the short term. Pay attention to the actual implementation of production restrictions in mid - August [42][43]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): In the medium to long term, corn is expected to maintain a volatile downward trend. It is recommended to continue holding short positions in new crops [44]. - Black Metals (Rebar/HRC): The short - term market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to operate with a light position [45][46][47]. - Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke): In the short term, it will fluctuate. The 09 contract will focus on the delivery situation, and the market may return to fundamentals [48][49]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Copper): It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. Pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [50][52][53]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): In the short term, the price may operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [55][56][57]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): Consider gradually stopping losses on short positions. Wait for an opportunity to go long after the macro - sentiment is released [58][59]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel): In the short term, pay attention to band trading opportunities. In the medium term, look for opportunities to short at high prices [60][61][62]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Wait and see before the risk event is resolved. Stop profiting from the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [63][64]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Lead): Look for opportunities to buy at low prices and manage positions well. Wait and see on the arbitrage side [65][66]. - Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc): On a single - side basis, it is recommended to wait and see. Hold low - level speculative long positions with good position management. Pay attention to medium - term positive arbitrage opportunities [70][71]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It will fluctuate in the short term [72][73]. - Energy Chemicals (Urea): Pay attention to the relevant meeting in Beijing tomorrow. The price has strong support in the short term [74][75][76]. - Energy Chemicals (Styrene): Pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the position of narrowing the styrene - pure benzene price difference [77][78]. - Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda): The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. - Energy Chemicals (Pulp): The market is expected to decline following the commodity market [81][82]. - Energy Chemicals (PVC): The market will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. - Energy Chemicals (PX): It will adjust in the short - term [85][86]. - Energy Chemicals (PTA): It will adjust in the short - term [87][88][89]. Core Viewpoints - The US economic data is weak, with the ISM non - manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations. There are signs of stagflation, and the inflation pressure will increase after the implementation of tariffs. The market risk preference has weakened [11][17][20]. - China's seven - department policy on financial support for new - type industrialization and the free pre - school education policy have boosted the stock market, and the market has strong expectations for policies [13][14][15]. - The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market needs to be closely monitored. In early August, the fundamentals and capital situation are favorable for the bond market [25]. - For commodities, different varieties have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply of some agricultural products is affected by weather and planting conditions, and the supply of some non - ferrous metals is affected by production capacity and inventory [35][50][52]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts and announced tariff increases, which raised market risk aversion. The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, showing stagflation risks. The gold price fluctuated and was waiting for a breakthrough [10][11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Seven departments issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization, and the State Council announced free pre - school education. The stock market was strong, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high this year. The market priced in policy expectations boldly and remained in a high - risk - preference state [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the economic downward pressure increased. The market risk preference weakened, and the US dollar index fluctuated [17][20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury plans to issue a record - high amount of four - week Treasury bonds. The weakening of the service PMI has increased market concerns, and the US stock market is expected to continue to pull back [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of funds. The bond market's reaction to the rise of the stock market was dull. If it becomes insensitive to the stock market rise, the bond market can be more optimistic in the short term [25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Beans Meal) - The far - month basis trading volume of beans meal increased. The cost of imported soybeans supported the futures price, and the market was worried about the future supply of imported soybeans [28][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Edible Oils) - The supply of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia may decrease by 20% in the next five years, which has increased market concerns. The export of soybean oil from China has increased, and the price has risen [32][33]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume in the 2025/26 year will change little. The growth progress of US cotton is slightly slow, and the excellent rate is stable. The short - term downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited [35][37][38]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The spot price of corn starch is stable at a high level. The downstream demand is weak, and the loss of enterprises in North China is expected to expand [39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market is rising steadily. The price is expected to rise to around 670 yuan and fluctuate, and the daily consumption will reach an inflection point in mid - to late August [41][42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The Onslow project's iron ore shipment volume has increased significantly. The iron ore price will fluctuate, and the port inventory is expected to decline in the next 1 - 2 weeks [42][43]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions has dropped significantly, and the market sentiment has turned pessimistic. In the long - term, corn is expected to decline [44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - The passenger car sales forecast has been raised, and the steel price has rebounded. The short - term market is volatile [45][46][47]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Luliang is oscillating. The supply of coal and coke is gradually recovering, and the market will oscillate in the short term [48][49]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Mitsubishi may cut its copper smelting business, and Codelco's mine has an accident. The market is worried about the US recession, and the copper price may be under pressure [50][51][53]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The photovoltaic power generation utilization rate in June was 95.4%. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton [54][55][57]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Yunnan and Inner Mongolia Tongwei passed the industrial silicon measurement audit. The supply of industrial silicon may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon will also rise, and the inventory may decrease [58]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased. The raw material price is weakening, but the nickel price is difficult to fall deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [60][61][62]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - POSCO plans to acquire lithium assets. The demand for lithium carbonate is growing, but the supply is uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved [63][64]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. Anhui's environmental protection measures affected the production of recycled lead. The short - term bottom of the lead price was established, but the downward trend has not been reversed [65][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory decreased. Glencore and Western Mining's zinc production increased. The supply of zinc is high, and the demand is weak. The zinc price will oscillate, and there is a risk of a short - term upward movement from the external market [67][68][70]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price was 72.38 yuan/ton, down 0.33%. The trading volume did not increase significantly. The CEA price is expected to fluctuate around 73 yuan/ton [72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The government issued agricultural disaster - prevention measures. The urea price rose slightly, and the market was affected by the India tender and export policy expectations [74][75][76]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The price of caprolactam was stable. The styrene market fluctuated slightly, and the inventory was expected to increase in August. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to stop profiting from the styrene - pure benzene spread [77][78]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased slightly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The subsequent market will fluctuate [79][80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp decreased. The market was affected by weak fundamentals and the end of the "anti - involution" sentiment [81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price rose. The market was affected by the rise of coking coal prices and will fluctuate in the short term [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was slightly stronger. The demand was in the off - season, and the supply was expected to increase. The price will adjust in the short term [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price weakened, and the trading improved slightly. The market was affected by the downstream off - season and followed the crude oil price. It will adjust in the short term [87][88][89].