期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 04 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议反弹至高位多单减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | ...

文字早评 202512/04 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、法国总统马克龙抵达北京 开启第四次对华国事访问; 2、在推动人工智能之后 特朗普政府开始关注机器人； 3、夜盘铜、锡等有色金属价格大涨； 4、美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万人，为 2023 年 3 月以来最低水平，预估为增加 5000 人，前值为 增加 4.2 万人。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.28%/-0.64%/-1.07%/-2.15%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.66%/-1.47%/-3.07%/-6.06%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.73%/-1.75%/-3.86%/-7.14%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.16%/-0.38%/-0.40%/-0.88%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动加快，风偏有所降低。从大方向看，政策支持资本市场的态度未变，科技成长仍是市场主 线，指数中长期仍是逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 113.610 ，环比变化-0.25%；T 主力合约收于 108.040 ，环比变 化 0. ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, highlighting the complex interplay of supply, demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices were in high - level oscillations on Tuesday. Fundamentals include statements from the US Treasury Secretary, ADP employment data, and various inventory changes. The strategy is to take partial profits on gold in the short - term and wait for buying opportunities at lower support levels [1]. - **Silver**: Overseas market tightness re - emerged, and short - term long positions are recommended [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices hit a new high. The proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts in London copper increased significantly, indicating a seller's market. The strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract rose slightly. With increased production capacity and improved demand, it is expected to oscillate upward [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract declined. With increased supply and stable demand, it is expected to oscillate weakly [2][3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply may decrease in December, and demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to move within the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to decrease in December. The short - term upward drive is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose. Production is stable, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, the price center has moved up due to a short - squeeze, and in the long - term, it depends on the progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Prices rose significantly. Supply is tight, and there are concerns about short - squeeze risks. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures are at a large discount. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a slight discount. It is recommended to exit and wait, and short the steel mill's profit [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply and demand are weakening, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to short the 2605 contract and short the steel mill's profit [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Supply is mixed, and demand is in a game. The US soybeans are in oscillation, and the domestic market depends on tariff policies and production [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices varied regionally. Supply and demand are temporarily tight, but new production is expected to increase. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [5][6]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market declined slightly. Supply is high in some areas and affected by floods in others, and demand is weakening. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term but oscillate overall [6]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices oscillated weakly, and domestic cotton prices rebounded. International supply and demand are affected by planting area changes, and domestic demand is mixed. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices declined, and spot prices decreased slightly. Supply pressure is decreasing, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures and spot prices declined. Supply is abundant, and demand is seasonally increasing, but prices are expected to weaken seasonally [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply pressure is rising but slowing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [7]. - **PVC**: The price continued to oscillate at the bottom. Supply is increasing, and demand is seasonally weakening. It is recommended to short [8]. - **Glass**: The price rebounded from the bottom. Supply is affected by cold - repair, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **PP**: The price of the main contract declined slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices rose and then fell. Supply is affected by sanctions and production plans, and demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Styrene**: The price of the main contract oscillated slightly. Supply and demand are improving marginally, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to buy styrene profit at low prices [9]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the main contract declined. Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is affected by coal prices. It is recommended to wait and see [9].

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银、铂、钯 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：0 ...

王军还以今年6月原油市场为例，指出在以色列军事行动前，原油持仓已出现多头增仓50%的信号，随 后地缘冲突推动原油价格剧烈波动。他提醒产业客户应通过监测持仓边际变化，预判价格脉冲风险。 针对企业避险实践，他表示，基于单一品种的传统基差交易利润空间已大幅收窄，PE、PP、PVC等品 种基差甚至不足以覆盖持仓成本。他建议企业转向"立体套保"模式，通过跨品种、跨区域、跨周期的组 合策略实现动态对冲。例如，"买产地、空销区"实现区域套利，通过"买成品、空原料"锁定加工利润， 或者利用甲醇与PP、PTA与甲醇之间的波动率差异进行基差套利。 王军建议，能源化工企业需从"一阶思维"走向"二阶思维"，即不仅要分析供需基本面，更要预判波动率 结构与资金行为，从而设计定制化、场景化的对冲方案。不同区域、不同规模的企业应量身定制风险管 理方案，不能套用同一模板。期货从业者要与产业客户齐心协力，在产能过剩、价格波动的行业转型 期，帮助企业建立价格稳定机制。 近日，在长沙举办的"2025年期货业高质量发展创新研讨会"上，金联创网络科技有限公司首席投研专家 王军表示，在全球能源格局重塑、定价权转移与产业深度整合的背景下，能源化工企业需要以 ...

人民财讯12月3日电，宝丰能源（600989）12月3日在互动平台表示，公司一直保持满产满销状态，主要 产品生产与销售情况保持稳健。各产品线产能利用率较高，市场订单良好。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex and diversified situation, with different commodities and sectors presenting various trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and seasonal patterns. Market participants should pay close attention to these factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. The external market oil price fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although there are some short - term positive news, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the supply is still expected to be loose in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's short - term supply pressure is also alleviated, and attention should be paid to whether the end - of - year shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve its supply - demand structure [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiated price trend. The demand in Northeast and North China is gradually stagnant, while the South China market is weak. The weekly shipment volume is at a low level in the past four years, and it is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. Silver's upward trend slowed after hitting a new high, and gold also showed fluctuations. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation. Platinum is stronger than palladium in performance [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, while Shanghai copper showed some resilience in the previous trading - intensive area. It is recommended to hold long positions based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions increased slightly, and the spot discount slightly expanded. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and it is testing the previous high of 22,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic supply and demand of zinc both decreased, while the overseas zinc ingot spot is tight. The LME zinc is running at a high level, and the export window is open, driving the domestic market up. The bottom support of zinc is strong, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transferring the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic refined - scrap lead price difference is 25 yuan/ton, and the social inventory is at a low level. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and Shanghai tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase the high, and a medium - to - long - term short - allocation with a hedging strategy is suggested [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the decline in polysilicon prices. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the DMC price trend [10] - **Iron & Steel Related** - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment is strong, and the domestic arrival volume is high. The port inventory is accumulating. The demand for iron ore may further decline. The market has expectations for policy benefits, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [13] - **Coke**: The coke price oscillated strongly during the day. The market has expectations for downstream replenishment. The coking profit is average, and the inventory has a slight increase. The price is expected to maintain a rebound in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price oscillated strongly during the day. The market expects downstream replenishment. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the total inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price oscillated during the day. The spot price of manganese ore increased. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the silicon - manganese inventory is slowly increasing. Attention should be paid to the follow - up impact of the reduction in Ghana's shipment [16] - **Silicon Iron**: The price oscillated during the day. The market expects coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in power cost and blue - carbon price. The iron - water production is at a high level, and the export demand has decreased. The supply of silicon iron has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly [17] Chemicals - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene's price slightly increased. The supply of polyethylene has limited changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to slightly increase, and the short - term demand is also weak [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC oscillates. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may be relieved. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda oscillates weakly. The supply is high, and the downstream demand is insufficient [26] - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX and PTA is driven down by the oil price. PTA continues to cut production, and the demand for PX is weak in the short term. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA's processing margin is expected to be repaired [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol decreased. The supply has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. However, it is expected to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, and its price fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle - chip's demand is weak, and the over - capacity is a long - term pressure [29] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation platform, and attention should be paid to the US soybean export and South American weather [33] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil's near - month contract is reducing positions and shifting positions. The supply of Malaysian palm oil decreased slightly in November, and the Indonesian export policy is favorable. The overall view of soybean and palm oil is range - bound [34] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The relationship between China and Canada has not improved, and rapeseed is oscillating at the bottom. Rapeseed meal's demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly destocking. The rapeseed series is expected to oscillate in a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The supply of high - protein soybeans is tight. The US soybean is affected by South American weather and export factors, and is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - **Corn**: The spot market drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The new grain supply is lower than expected, and there is a supply - demand mismatch. Attention should be paid to the new grain sales progress in the Northeast and the auction of overdue wheat [37] - **Pork**: The pork futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price is slightly down. The southern curing will start soon, but there is also pressure from the second - fattening pigs. The pig price may form a second bottom in the first half of next year [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures rose sharply and then fell. The far - month contract should not be chased up, and the near - month contract may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: The US cotton slightly decreased. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. The pure - cotton yarn price is stable, and the new orders are insufficient. The industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillates. The production in India and Thailand is expected to be good. The domestic market focuses on the new - season sugar production estimate, and the production in Guangxi is expected to be good [41] - **Apple**: The apple futures oscillate at a high level. The spot price is strong, and the inventory is lower than last year. In the long - term, there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contract [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures oscillate. The supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the price [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [44] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market fell with reduced volume yesterday. The stock index futures all closed down. The external market is mixed. The short - term macro - liquidity factor has uncertainties, and a wait - and - see and defensive strategy is recommended [45] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures oscillate. The six major banks have stopped selling 5 - year large - value deposits. The bond market sentiment is cautious, and the long - term interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase [46]

新华财经西安12月3日电（记者刘桃熊、朱程、梁冬）开发区作为产业集聚的重要载体，在推动区域经 济转型升级、实现高质量发展中发挥着不可替代的作用。近年来，陕西省咸阳市创新开发区体制机制， 激活开发区活力，同时优化开发区布局和提升开发区能级，在全省率先实现省级开发区县域全覆盖，开 发区正在成为咸阳市经济高质量发展的主阵地、新引擎和加速器。 省级开发区县域全覆盖 咸阳市以持续深化开发区管理制度改革为抓手，全面激发开发区创新活力和内生动力。《咸阳市创新开 发区管理体制机制若干措施》提出全面推行"党工委（管委会）+公司"运营模式，优化开发区管理体制 机制，探索实行员额制管理，创新财政税收、薪酬管理、运营公司管理等机制，推动开发区实体化、市 场化运营。 咸阳市发展改革委副主任叶中辰介绍，"目前，咸阳高新区、兴平高新区、三原高新区等11个开发区已 实现'党工委（管委会）+公司'运行模式，咸阳高新区、咸阳经开区已率先推行开发区员额制管理。" 在优化开发区布局和提升开发区能级方面，咸阳市按照"一县一区、一区多园"原则，2021年对各类开发 区实施整合优化，形成"2+13"发展格局。目前，咸阳市省级以上开发区14个，其中国家级高 ...

侯启军指出，要把学习好贯彻好全会精神作为当前和今后一个时期一项重大政治任务，提高政治站位， 突出抓好学习培训，扎实推动全会精神在中国石化落地见效、取得丰硕成果。切实把思想和行动统一到 习近平总书记重要讲话和全会精神上来，以钉钉子精神推动党中央重大决策部署落实落地。坚持正确方 向，遵循科学理念，发扬斗争精神，把握历史主动，不断开创高质量发展新局面。锚定到2035年基本实 现社会主义现代化的战略目标，加强全局性谋划、整体性推进，进一步破解制约高质量发展和现代化建 设的深层次矛盾问题，为开创中国式现代化建设新局面贡献更多石化力量。切实把思想统一到党中央对 形势的科学判断上来，既清醒认识风险挑战的严峻性，又牢牢把握重大机遇，在新征程上不断夺取高质 量发展新胜利。主动对接国家战略需求，靠前发力展现担当作为，为国家总体目标的实现贡献石化力 量。结合能源化工行业和中国石化实际，牢牢把握建设现代化产业体系的着力点、实现高水平科技自立 自强的主攻点、加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的新要求、推进国家安全体系和能力现代化的硬任务、 做好国资国企工作的新部署，坚决有力抓好贯彻落实。把各级党组织锻造得更加坚强有力，形成心往一 处想、劲往 ...

联合资信 公用评级四部 |倪 昕 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 黑龙江省农林资源丰富，畜牧业发展条件优异，经济总量处于全国下游水平，2024 年经济增速有 所放缓，人均 GDP 排名靠后。黑龙江省产业结构保持稳定，其中第三产业是拉动全省经济增长 的主要动力。随着冰雪经济出圈，黑龙江省文化旅游业维持高速发展。 2024 年，黑龙江省一般公共预算收入和政府性基金收入有所增长，规模在全国排名下游，财政自 给能力弱，上级补助收入对黑龙江省政府综合财力提供了有力支撑，政府债务率水平偏高。 黑龙江省各地级市经济实力分化明显，哈尔滨市经济发展水平处于领先地位；除大庆市外，黑龙 江省其他地级市人均 GDP 均低于全国平均水平。哈尔滨市综合财力远高于其他地级市，受区域 房地产市场持续低迷影响，部分地市政府性基金收入降幅较大，各地级市综合财力对上级补助的 依赖性高；绝大部分地级市政府债务率快速攀升，哈尔滨市政府债务率仍居黑龙江省首位。 随着部分地市城投债提前完成兑付，黑龙江省债券净融资金额持续为负，目前仅哈尔滨市和牡丹 江市有存续发债城投企业，整体存 ...