Report Title - ABS Supply and Demand are Booming — ABS Monthly Report (June 2025) [1] Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, the ABS market showed a prosperous situation with growth in both supply and demand. The primary issuance scale increased, the secondary trading volume and turnover rate significantly improved, the investor structure had certain changes, and the yields and spreads also presented corresponding trends [2][3][4][5] Specific Summaries by Section Primary Issuance - **Issuance Scale**: In June 2025, the ABS issuance scale increased by 36% month-on-month to 205.546 billion yuan. Among them, the issuance scales of credit ABS, enterprise ABS, and ABN were 24.719 billion yuan, 128.621 billion yuan, and 52.206 billion yuan respectively, with month-on-month growth rates of 3%, 55%, and 18% [2][8] - **Issuance Term and Interest Rate**: Newly issued ABS in June mostly had a term of 1 - 2 years, and the weighted average coupon rate continued to decline. The weighted average coupon rate was 1.93%, a decrease of 7.82bp compared to May. By ABS type, the weighted term of newly issued credit ABS was 2.80 years with a weighted interest rate of 1.63%; for enterprise ABS, the weighted term was 3.38 years and the weighted interest rate was 2.05%; for ABN, the weighted term was 2.56 years and the weighted interest rate was 1.93% [2][10] Secondary Trading - In June 2025, the ABS trading volume and turnover rate significantly increased. The monthly trading volume was 163.716 billion yuan, a 38.01% increase from May. The monthly turnover rate was 5.0%, a 1.3 percentage point increase from May. Among them, ABN was the most actively traded ABS product type, with a monthly turnover rate of 7.0% in June, a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [3][16] Investor Structure - **Credit ABS**: Commercial banks and non - legal person products were the main holders, accounting for 69% and 15% respectively. The holding proportions of commercial banks and non - legal person products decreased by 0.55 and 0.04 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month, while the holding proportion of securities companies increased by 0.37 percentage points [4][19] - **ABN**: Non - legal person products and commercial banks held the most, accounting for 62% and 28% respectively, remaining the same as the previous month [4][19] - **Enterprise ABS**: For Shanghai Stock Exchange enterprise ABS, trust institutions and bank self - operations were the main investors, with holding proportions of 31% and 26% respectively as of June, with the trust institution's proportion decreasing by 0.2 percentage points and the bank self - operation's increasing by 0.1 percentage point compared to the previous month. For Shenzhen Stock Exchange enterprise ABS, trust institutions and general institutions were the main investors, with holding proportions of 32% and 27% respectively as of June, with the trust institution's proportion decreasing by 0.3 percentage points and the general institution's remaining unchanged [4][24] Yields and Spreads - In June, the yields to maturity of ABS at various terms continued to decline. The changes in the yields to maturity of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year AAA - rated asset - backed securities compared to May 30, 2025, were - 1.6bp, - 3.1bp, - 6.7bp, and - 7.0bp respectively. The spreads between ABS and medium - and short - term notes mostly decreased. The spreads between 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year AAA - rated asset - backed securities and medium - and short - term notes of the same term and rating changed to 5.7bp, - 12.1bp, - 2.5bp, and - 3.5bp respectively, with changes of 0.3bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.5bp, and - 2.1bp respectively [5][26]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between the U.S. Treasury Secretary and the Federal Reserve Chairman regarding monetary policy is creating uncertainty in the dollar's performance and affecting other financial assets [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Divergence - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may not be delayed beyond September, citing economic pressures and the need for stimulus [3]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized a cautious approach, stating that decisions must be based on comprehensive economic assessments rather than short-term market fluctuations [3][4]. - This clear division between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve is contributing to market confusion regarding future monetary policy directions [3][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The limited upward potential of the dollar is leading investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies amid policy uncertainty [4]. - Despite a minor decline in the dollar index, there are positive movements in S&P and Nasdaq futures, reflecting increased investor preference for risk assets due to expectations of future monetary easing [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 4.245%, indicating a balanced approach among bond market investors in light of policy uncertainties [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators show a bearish trend for the dollar index, with moving averages declining and an expanding Bollinger Band indicating increased market volatility [4][5]. - Key support levels for the dollar index are identified at 96.37 and 94.62, while resistance levels are at 97.32 and 98.15 [5]. - These technical signals provide important references for investors in assessing the dollar index's future movements [5].

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 黄金铂金比创下50年来最大两个月跌幅 走势——而无论如何，这都意味着未来数月美股前景显著恶化。 赫伯特上一次提及该比率是在3月初，当时市场普遍预测新一轮熊市降临，但因黄金铂金比彼时处于强 劲上升趋势，其追随者仍保持看涨，事实证明他是对的。标普500指数此后累计上涨约8%。 过去数年的大部分时间里，该比率一直处于稳定上升趋势，但自4月中旬以来，铂金价格飙升超40%而 黄金持稳略跌，导致黄金铂金比骤降，这对股市短期前景而言绝非吉兆。 研究作者称，该比率之所以能成为良好的短期市场择时指标，是因为它是地缘政治风险的敏感替代指标 ——尽管黄金和铂金均具工业用途且往往在经济强劲时上涨，但黄金与地缘政治风险存在相关性。因此 当该比率下跌时，意味着市场认为经济相对地缘风险而言更为强劲。 人们可能会对此感到惊讶：为何黄金铂金比下跌暗示市场前景黯淡？若经济相对地缘风险更强，难道不 是好事吗？要理解这一问题，需区分该比率作为同步指标与领先指标的差异：作为同步指标，比率下跌 时股市往往表现优于平均水平，这正是我们过去两个月所经历的；而作为领先指标时，情况则相反—— 当比率下跌时，投资者对先前高企 ...

咱们中国也是美国国债的主要持有国之一。这些年，出于各种经济和战略考虑，我们持有了一定数量的 美国国债。虽说我们一直在进行外汇储备的多元化，逐步减持美国国债，但目前持仓量依然不小。一旦 美国违约，我们的外汇资产会遭受损失。不过，咱们中国经济的韧性很强，有足够的应对措施。这些 年，我们大力推动内需，加强国内经济的循环，降低对外部市场的依赖。同时，我们也在积极推进人民 币国际化，扩大人民币在国际贸易和投资中的使用范围。所以，相比其他一些国家，我们有更多的缓冲 空间和应对手段，但这并不意味着我们不会受到影响，损失总归是让人不舒服的。 还有全球金融市场，那更是会被搅得一团糟。美国国债一直被视为全球金融市场的重要基准资产，很多 金融产品的定价都和它有关。一旦美国国债违约，全球金融市场的定价体系就会乱套，各种金融产品的 价格波动会加剧，投资者会陷入恐慌，大量资金会从风险资产撤离，寻求更安全的避风港。新兴市场国 家受到的冲击可能尤为严重，资金外流，货币贬值，经济增长受到抑制，很多国家多年的发展成果可能 毁于一旦，这些国家的政府和人民能不哭吗？ 从长远来看，如果美国真的出现国债违约，美元的国际地位也会受到严重动摇。长期以来，美 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The direct effect of tariffs may reduce the U.S. economic growth rate by 0.5% to 0.75%, with a negative impact of approximately 0.1% on global economic growth [5] - Tariffs are expected to raise commodity prices and increase the cost of production components, affecting both domestic production and global exports [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and international relations has led many domestic and foreign companies to postpone significant investments, which may have a more substantial impact on U.S. economic growth than the tariffs themselves [3][5] Group 2: U.S. Trade Policy and Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. trade policy under the Trump administration is characterized by aggressive unilateral actions, which may lead to long-term damage to global trade relationships [6][8] - The potential for a restructuring of global trade networks is anticipated, similar to past global shocks, although this may slow down globalization rather than reverse it [6][8] - The U.S. may not fully withdraw from the WTO but could adopt a less active role, which might encourage other member countries to push for rule reforms [9] Group 3: Future of the Dollar and Global Currency Dynamics - The dollar is expected to maintain its dominant position for the next 10 to 20 years, but its supremacy may be challenged due to U.S. fiscal imbalances and concerns over investment safety [10] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal policy and the safety of U.S. debt could weaken the dollar's status in the global economy [10][11] Group 4: WTO Reform and Global Trade Rules - There is a pressing need for WTO rule updates to address new global challenges such as climate change and health crises, as current rules do not adequately reflect these issues [8][9] - The cooperation of major economies, including the U.S., China, and the EU, is essential for establishing a new, acceptable rule system within the WTO [9][12]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has shown remarkable performance in the first half of 2025, with fundraising exceeding 105 billion HKD, ranking first globally [1][2] - A total of 42 new stocks were listed in Hong Kong in the first half of 2025, a 40% increase compared to the same period last year, marking the highest fundraising total since 2021 [1][2] - The influx of international capital into Hong Kong has significantly increased, with funds rising from 366 billion USD in early 2024 to 506 billion USD by April 2025, the highest since 2000 [2] Group 2 - The surge in the IPO market is attributed to Hong Kong's role as a core hub for global capital allocation in Chinese assets, facilitating efficient connections between domestic and international resources [1][2] - Leading companies in hard technology and new consumption sectors are becoming the "new core assets" of the Hong Kong stock market, reflecting strong investor interest [2][3] - The listing of companies like CATL has set multiple records, with its IPO being over-subscribed by more than 150 times and raising over 40 billion HKD [3] Group 3 - There is a growing trend of A-share leading companies opting for "A+H" dual listing in Hong Kong, with nearly 70 A-share companies planning to list, contributing significantly to the total fundraising in the IPO market [4] - The Hong Kong IPO market is expected to maintain its momentum in the second half of 2025, with over 170 listing applications currently in process and an estimated 80 new companies expected to list, raising around 200 billion HKD [5]

Group 1 - The second quarter earnings season for U.S. companies is set to begin in the coming weeks, with S&P 500 companies expected to see a year-over-year profit growth of 5.9% according to LSEG IBES data [2] - Investors are particularly focused on the impact of tariff policies on corporate profits and consumer spending, as geopolitical events have dominated the market in recent weeks [2] - Historical data indicates that July is often a strong month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 index averaging a gain of 2.9% over the past 15 years [2] Group 2 - As of the latest data, COMEX gold prices are trading at $3305.80 per ounce, reflecting a 0.60% increase, with a high of $3306.20 and a low of $3250.50 for the day [3] - The short-term resistance levels for gold are identified between $3373 and $3383, while support levels are noted between $3230 and $3240 [3]

点击下方关注许亚鑫，加★星标★，充值鑫仰！ 晚上的直播课，我分别从"GDP下修与债务倒计时"，"北约峰会与对等关税"，"江河保护治理与小米发布会"，"虚拟币牌照与国产CPU"四个方面解读了基 本面的一些信息，并结合GDP，美债，加拿大，北约峰会，关税，金银油，水利，小米，SUV，人民币，A股，港股等给出了接下来的布局思路。 我在前文《》提醒过大家，金价下方有个非常重要的均线支撑，并且未来大概率要去底部寻找支撑。 今天，黄金的价格从3328美元/盎司跌落，加速触及3255美元/盎司的低点。 除了中东局势避险降温以外，主要还是中美之前关税的消息。 有记者问：近日，美方有关官员和媒体称，中美已就落实日内瓦共识的框架达成了补充谅解， 中国将加快向美国出口稀土，美方相应取消对华有关限制 措施。请问商务部对此有何评论？ 答：在中美两国元首共识指引下，双方经贸团队于6月9日至10日在伦敦举行经贸会谈，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的 框架达成原则一致。伦敦会谈后，中美双方团队保持着密切沟通。近日，经批准，双方进一步确认了框架细节。 中方将依法审批符合条件的管制物项出 口申请。美方将相应取消对华采 ...

印度央行：政府证券市场、外汇市场和利率衍生品市场的交易时间保持不变。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalation of tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, which has led to a more unpredictable security and political landscape in the region [1] - International crude oil prices have surged approximately 10% within a week after the Israeli attack on Iran, with a total increase of over 20% for June, indicating heightened geopolitical risks affecting global commodity and financial markets [3] - Iran has threatened to consider closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil trade, which could significantly impact global economies reliant on Middle Eastern oil supplies [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the U.S. military action may not only exacerbate tensions with Iran but also lead to further increases in international oil prices, potentially raising global inflation levels and affecting monetary policies worldwide [3] - The international community is calling for restraint to prevent further escalation of conflict, with the UN Secretary-General emphasizing that diplomatic solutions are the only viable path to resolve the current crisis [4] - The long-standing differences between the U.S. and Iran, coupled with the profound impacts of recent events, suggest that achieving a genuine peace solution may take considerable time [4]