1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global market turmoil was triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China on October 10, 2025, leading to sharp drops in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [11]. - The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting, and economic data release affected [12]. - China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing continued improvement in the manufacturing sector, while the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month [15][16]. - Metal prices were generally affected by macro - events. Copper prices are expected to adjust in the short - term but remain optimistic in the long - run; aluminum prices may face short - term pressure; zinc prices are likely to remain weakly volatile; lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range; nickel prices are subject to supply uncertainties; tin prices are supported by supply tightness and demand recovery; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in a wait - and - see state; and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Global Market Flash Crash**: On the night of October 10, Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China led to a global market sell - off. US stocks, crude oil, metal futures, and cryptocurrencies all tumbled. The US will raise the tariff on Chinese goods to 130% and implement key software export controls on November 1 [11]. - **US Government "Shutdown"**: The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting. The Department of Labor's data release was affected, and high - frequency economic data was difficult to obtain [12]. - **China's Economic Data**: China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6%. The central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, the 11th consecutive monthly increase [15][16]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic data in September was generally weak. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000; the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month; and the ISM services PMI was 50, significantly lower than expected [19][20][21] 3.2 Metal Market Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. After Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia in late September, prices rose significantly but were limited by weak demand. On October 10, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, copper prices dropped sharply [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly volatile and may adjust further. However, in the long - run, the supply - demand balance remains tight, and prices are likely to stabilize after the short - term adjustment. It is recommended to reduce long - position holdings to avoid short - term risks [2] Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. The price of Guinea's bauxite decreased, and the alumina market was under pressure. Trump's tariff signal led to short - term pressure on aluminum prices [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Although short - term prices may continue to decline, the demand peak season remains unchanged, and downstream开工 rates are expected to rise. It is recommended that long - position holders pay attention to risk avoidance and monitor the development of events [2] Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices rose and then fell. The weak US employment data increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in zinc prices. However, the overall terminal consumption was weak [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic refined zinc output is expected to remain high, but demand is weak. It is expected that zinc prices will remain weakly volatile, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based short - biased trading [2] Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices oscillated horizontally. The domestic lead supply showed a downward trend, and the price recovered after a sharp drop. However, due to the new round of Sino - US trade confrontation, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations [2]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will oscillate within the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based trading [2] Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices oscillated within a range. The new RKAB approval policy in Indonesia has brought uncertainties to the nickel ore market. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside potential [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see or moderately hold short positions at high prices. The main contract of nickel is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, range - based trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3] Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are showing signs of recovery. However, the short - term tariff increase expectation has a negative impact on prices [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to conduct range - based trading, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 11 contract being 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated widely, and polycrystalline silicon prices oscillated at high levels. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon showed different trends, and the photovoltaic industry's anti - involution policy has not been implemented [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Given the current supply - demand expectations for October, it is recommended to wait and see until the policy becomes clear [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Lithium carbonate prices oscillated horizontally. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good. However, there are risks related to mining permits [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 3.05% to $10,374.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper increased by 3.37% to ¥85,900 per ton [1][13] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 166,300 tons, mainly due to increased domestic supply and weak downstream consumption [1][13] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises rose to 53.04%, with expectations of further increase to 58.13% next week [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price increased by 1.63% to $2,746.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose by 1.45% to ¥21,000 per ton [2][14] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory reached 649,000 tons, up by 57,000 tons from September 29 [2][14] - The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy decreased slightly to 58.0%, affected by weak demand and unclear orders [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 1.28% to $4,035.50 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 3.99 tons to 1,017.16 tons [3][15] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated a consensus to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4%-4.25% [3][15] - The U.S. government shutdown impacted economic data release and public services, affecting market sentiment [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide decreased by 0.89%, while the strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to enhanced control measures [4][31] - The sector is expected to experience a "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" trend, with potential price increases as supply reforms take effect [4][31] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][31] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 1.12%, but demand for photovoltaic glass is recovering [4][32] - The implementation of stricter fire-resistant standards may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][32] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and recovering demand [4][32] Group 6: Tin - Tin price increased by 5.16%, supported by Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining [4][33] - The current inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a strong support for tin prices [4][33] - The long-term outlook for tin remains positive due to demand from AI and photovoltaic sectors [4][33] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate remained stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.19% to ¥78,500 per ton [5][59] - Lithium production increased to 20,600 tons, with expectations of further supply growth [5][59] - Downstream demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage remains strong, supporting price stability [5][59] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt price surged by 17.8% to ¥349,500 per ton, driven by supply concerns and rising demand [5][61] - The market is experiencing a "price without market" situation due to tight supply and high demand [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated due to ongoing supply constraints from Congo [5][61] Group 9: Nickel - LME nickel price decreased by 1.3% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price increased by 1.4% to ¥122,000 per ton [5][62] - Nickel inventory increased by 5,700 tons to 237,400 tons, raising concerns about supply stability [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to conflicting supply and demand signals [5][62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the aluminum price showed internal and external divergence, with SHFE aluminum down 0.17% and LME aluminum up 2.79%. Fundamentally, the profit of primary aluminum smelting is at a historical high, but the room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products has recovered in the peak season. Although there is still uncertainty in demand, under the expectation of the increase in the proportion of molten aluminum, the expectation of ingot inventory accumulation is not strong. Coupled with the tight overseas spot, the aluminum price is expected to rise in the shock. This month, the operating range of the main contract of SHFE aluminum is expected to be between 20,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 2,600 - 2,900 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply side: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month to about 857,000 tons [12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of September, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons month-on-month. The bonded area inventory was 88,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons month-on-month. The total inventory of aluminum rods was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month-on-month. The global LME aluminum inventory was 511,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots to futures was 20 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M discount was 1.6 US dollars/ton [12]. - Import and Export: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1%. In September, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened month-on-month, and the export advantage of aluminum products increased [12]. - Demand side: According to SMM research, the comprehensive PMI of aluminum processing in September was 55.7%, an increase of 2.4% month-on-month. Many sectors such as aluminum plates, aluminum foils, and industrial profiles were in the expansion range, with good performance in production and new orders; however, the demand for building materials and building profiles was weak due to the impact of real estate and funds, showing a differentiated trend in the industry [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: In September, SHFE aluminum fluctuated, down 0.17% for the month; LME aluminum rose 2.79% for the month. At the beginning of October, the aluminum prices of both domestic and overseas markets strengthened again [20]. - Term Spread: In September, the spread between the first and third contracts of SHFE aluminum converged [25]. - Spot Basis: In September, the spot in East and South China was at a discount to futures most of the time, while the Central China region turned to a premium [29]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In September, the spot in Central China was relatively stronger [35]. - LME Premium and Discount: In September, the LME aluminum Cash/3M fluctuated around par [39]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In September, the profit of primary aluminum smelting increased month-on-month and was at a historical high [43]. - Inventory: - Aluminum Ingot Inventory: At the end of September, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 587,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons month-on-month. At the beginning of October, the inventory rebounded [48]. - Bonded Area Inventory: At the end of September, the bonded area inventory was 88,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons month-on-month [48]. - Aluminum Rod Inventory: At the end of September, the total inventory of aluminum rods was 124,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month-on-month. During the National Day holiday, the inventory increased significantly [51]. - LME Inventory: At the end of September, the global LME aluminum inventory was 511,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, at a low level in the same period of previous years [56]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite Price: In September, the domestic bauxite price decreased by 4 yuan/ton month-on-month [67]. - Alumina Price: In September, the domestic alumina price decreased by 210 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the import price decreased by 41 US dollars/ton [70]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In September, the anode price remained flat, and the thermal coal price increased slightly by 10 yuan/ton month-on-month [74]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In September, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased by 1.5% month-on-month and 10.0% year-on-year. As of the end of September, the built - in capacity of alumina was about 110.32 million tons, the operating capacity increased by 1.5% month-on-month, and the operating rate was 80.2% [80]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons. The commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum replacement projects led to a slight increase in the operating capacity. In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.1% year-on-year and decreased by 3.2% month-on-month. In October, the electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to continue to increase slightly. In September, the overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.9% year-on-year [83]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In September, the domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.2% month-on-month, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume decreased by 8.7% year-on-year and 7.9% month-on-month to about 857,000 tons. It is expected that the molten aluminum ratio will continue to increase in October [86]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In September, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province decreased compared with August, among which Shandong's output decreased by 38,400 tons [91]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Operating Rate: - In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly month-on-month, and the operating rate of aluminum plates and foils rebounded in August [102]. - In September, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots rebounded month-on-month, and the operating rate of aluminum rods rebounded month-on-month in August [105]. - In August, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was weak. In September, the price difference between primary and recycled aluminum narrowed by 194 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [108]. - Terminal Demand: According to the production scheduling reports of the three major white goods released by Industry Online, in October 2025, the production scheduling of household air conditioners was 1.153 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 18.0%, with the decline expanding, and the month-on-month trend was stable; the production scheduling of refrigerators was 863,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, with the decline narrowing slightly; the production scheduling of washing machines was 908,000 units, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. Currently, the real estate data is still weak, the production and sales of automobiles are acceptable, and the production scheduling of photovoltaic modules is stable [112]. 3.7 Import and Export - Import: - In August 2025, China's imports of primary aluminum were 217,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 12.3% and a year-on-year increase of 33.1%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 1.714 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. In September, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened [117]. - In August, the imports of aluminum ingots mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Australia, etc. Among them, the imports from Russia accounted for 63%, and the imports from India increased to 15% [121]. - Export: In August 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 534,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1%; from January to August, the cumulative exports were 4 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2% [125]. - Other Imports and Exports: - In August 2025, China's imports of bauxite were 18.289 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 75.70%. From January to August, the cumulative imports of bauxite were 141.49 million tons [128]. - In August 2025, China's exports of alumina were 180,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 21.3% and a year-on-year increase of 26.0%. From January to August, the cumulative exports of alumina were 1.753 million tons [128].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative factors affecting alumina prices have not reversed, and the futures prices continue to face pressure. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and pay attention to the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, with a focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Futures Prices**: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices this month was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and as of October 10, the Shandong spot price had a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable at - 25 yuan/ton [11][20]. - **Spot Prices**: Alumina production remained at a high level this month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation is expected to persist. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had significantly declined compared to early September [11][18]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September. The alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 9.96 tons to 10.63 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 8.74 tons to 20.66 tons [11][63][65]. 3.2期现端 (Spot and Futures End) - **Spot Prices**: Alumina production remained high, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, causing spot prices to decline. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had dropped significantly compared to early September [18]. - **Futures Prices**: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable [20]. 3.3原料端 (Raw Material End) - **Bauxite Prices**: In September, the bauxite price in Henan decreased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. As of October 10, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 73 dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton [25]. - **Bauxite Production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The total production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Domestic bauxite production decreased due to the rainy season and environmental policies [27]. - **Bauxite Imports**: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The total imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. China imported 1233 tons of bauxite from Guinea in August, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.68%. The cumulative imports from Guinea in the first eight months were 107.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.74% [29][32]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: As of October 3, 2025, the global bauxite shipments from major countries remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory reached a new high of 29.98 million tons this year, indicating sufficient ore supply. In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons to 52.27 million tons, still at a near - five - year high [35][37]. 3.4供给端 (Supply End) - **Alumina Production**: In August 2025, alumina production was 7.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.53% and a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The cumulative production in the first eight months was 59.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.45% [40]. - **New Alumina Production Capacity**: In the first half of the year, projects were successfully put into production and gradually released output. The Guangxi Guangtou project is expected to be put into production in the third quarter. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter is uncertain, and the Oriental Hope project is expected to be postponed to January 2026 [43]. - **Alumina Smelting Profits**: Alumina spot prices continued to decline, putting pressure on smelting profits. As of October 10, the production profit in Guangxi was 370 yuan/ton, while the profits in Shandong using Australian and Guinean ores were 50 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively. The use of Guinean ore in Shanxi and Henan would result in losses [45]. 3.5进出口 (Imports and Exports) - **Alumina Imports and Exports**: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import volume decreased from 126,000 tons last month to 94,000 tons, and the export volume decreased from 229,000 tons to 181,000 tons. The cumulative net export in the first eight months was 1.265 million tons. With the recent opening of the import window, the import volume in September and October is expected to gradually increase, potentially exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [48]. - **Alumina Import Window**: As of October 10, the Australian FOB price had decreased by 38 dollars/ton to 324 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 6 yuan/ton. The release of new overseas production capacity drove the spot price down, opening the import window [51]. 3.6需求端 (Demand End) - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The total production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [55]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [58]. 3.7库存 (Inventory) - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September, with increases in various types of inventory [63]. - **Alumina Futures Warehouse Receipts and Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 87,400 tons to 206,600 tons. As the market supply of spot goods gradually loosened, the registration volume of warehouse receipts gradually recovered [65].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve cautiously lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with internal disagreements on future policy paths, highlighting tensions between fiscal and monetary authorities [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary publicly urged the Federal Reserve to implement significant rate cuts by year-end, indicating a divergence in policy approaches [1] - Domestic liquidity remains loose, with the LPR stable and the central bank injecting over 260 billion yuan, but the real estate sector continues to drag down the economy and aluminum consumption [1] Group 2: Aluminum Market Dynamics - Recent aluminum prices show a divergence, with LME aluminum prices increasing by $73/ton (2.80%) while domestic Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 65 yuan/ton (0.32%) [2] - The aluminum market is experiencing structural demand differentiation, with weak demand in construction profiles but slight recovery in cables and plates, leading to inventory accumulation despite the traditional peak season [3][7] - The domestic alumina market is characterized by oversupply and price pressure, with spot prices down 205 yuan/ton to 3020 yuan/ton, and futures prices down 140 yuan/ton to 2868 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Real Estate and Consumption Trends - Real estate development investment in China decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with residential investment down 11.9%, indicating a significant slowdown in the sector [5] - New housing sales area fell by 4.7% year-on-year, with sales revenue down 7.3%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the real estate market [5] - The real estate development climate index stands at 93.05, indicating a contraction in the sector's health [5] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to rate cuts reflects a balance between acknowledging labor market weaknesses and inflation risks, while China's macroeconomic policy remains accommodative [6] - The aluminum market is expected to continue its volatile trend, with upward price potential constrained by oversupply and macroeconomic pressures, while seasonal demand and policy stimuli may provide some support [7] - Market participants are advised to focus on inventory trends and actual consumption levels, with a recommendation for cautious trading strategies to manage risks [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, while the price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, with attention paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [2][4][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Finished Products - The production of short - process construction steel enterprises in the Yunnan - Guizhou region during the Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output, and 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui Province will also have varying degrees of shutdown, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons of output [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low in the recent period. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is also pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is not strong [4] - The finished products are expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Aluminum Ingots - During the holiday, non - ferrous metals in the external market generally rose, and LME aluminum was strong. The US government shutdown has entered the eighth day, and Fed officials believe that the risks in the US job market have increased enough to support interest rate cuts, but many policymakers are still vigilant about high inflation [3] - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio of domestic electrolytic aluminum plants rebounded slightly. The comprehensive PMI index of aluminum processing increased by 2.4 percentage points to 55.7%. Different sub - sectors showed structural differentiation [4] - On October 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas was 649,000 tons, an increase of 57,000 tons compared with September 29 and an increase of 32,000 tons compared with September 25. The destocking in September was less than expected, and the premium of electrolytic aluminum is expected to face certain pressure in the early post - holiday period. In October, the aluminum - water ratio of some northern enterprises is expected to increase, and the ingot casting volume is expected to remain low, which will support the aluminum price [4] - With the continuous expectation of overseas interest rate cuts, the short - term macro - favorable atmosphere and the stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine - end resumption, and consumption release [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Grasberg's unexpected production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the copper's medium - term allocation value is still optimistic [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and it's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices oscillated this week, with a short - term unilateral weak oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see, and partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak, and there is a certain motivation for price support on the policy side [3][4][5] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. Short - term observation is recommended, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated this week. After the hype of supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbances [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident postponed Grasberg's复产, reducing the 2026 copper guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase next year without the复产 of the Panama mine [1] - Fund long positions are increasing, and the copper's allocation enthusiasm is expected to rise. It's advisable to consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and downstream start - up improved. There was a slight destocking in September, and a seasonal slight inventory build - up is expected in October [1] - It's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to long - short spreads and cross - market arbitrage [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreased further, and imported TC increased further. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2] - The smelting end will repair slightly in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge [2] - The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it's recommended to wait and see. Partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, steel mills are expected to resume production slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and the policy side has a certain price - support motivation [3] - For stainless steel, the situation is similar to nickel, with weak fundamentals and policy - side price - support motivation [3][4][5] Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply is affected by low scrap volume, tight waste batteries, and low smelting profits [7] - Demand improved slightly due to National Day stocking, but the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the overall destocking strength needs verification [7] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] Tin - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. The supply side is undergoing marginal repair, and the demand side is mainly rigid - supported [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term supply - demand dual - weak. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. The supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices oscillated. The raw material side has strong price - support willingness, and the lithium salt side's pre - holiday stocking is almost over [11] - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, with a surplus in static supply - demand. After the supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high [11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The eight - department plan aims to increase resource exploration and reserve for non - ferrous metals from 2025 - 2026, which will have a balanced impact on nickel prices. The overall consumption of non - ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with some sectors facing challenges and others having potential for improvement [43][45][55] - The copper market is affected by factors such as Grasberg's production decline, Congo - Kinshasa's smelter reduction, and domestic production issues, leading to a tight supply situation. The consumption is weak, but the bullish trend is strengthening [2][3][4] - The alumina market has an oversupply situation. Although the price rebounds slightly before the holiday, it is expected to remain weak due to the open import window and fundamental oversupply [8][12][13] - The aluminum market shows short - term shock due to factors like US economic data, domestic inventory changes, and consumption uncertainty, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up after the holiday [14][17][18] - The casting aluminum alloy market is restricted by factors such as tight waste aluminum resources and extended holidays of downstream enterprises, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [21][23][25] - The zinc market has potential production reduction in mines in October, with an expected increase in domestic refined zinc supply. The consumption is expected to remain weak, and the overseas de - stocking may support the price [30][31][33] - The lead market has a tight balance in the lead concentrate supply, with expected production increase in regenerated lead. The consumption in the peak season is under - performing, and the price may decline [37][40] - The nickel market has a surplus of refined nickel, but the price is affected by factors such as the plan and downstream consumption. Attention should be paid to import and inventory changes [43][45] - The stainless steel market has increased production in September, but the demand has not shown seasonal characteristics. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock [47][48] - The tin market has a tight supply in the mining end, weak demand, and a high - level shock is expected [54][56][57] - The industrial silicon market may have a short - term correction, and long positions can be considered after the correction [63][64][65] - The polysilicon market may have a short - term decline, and long positions can be re - entered after sufficient correction during the holiday [66][67] - The lithium carbonate market has strong demand and gradually narrowing supply growth. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern [70][73][74] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 82,370 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The spot premium was stable, and the inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons [2] - **Important Information**: Policies encourage resource exploration and utilization, and Argentina approves a copper project. The supply is expected to increase during the holiday, while the demand will weaken [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Grasberg's production decline and other factors lead to tight supply, and the consumption is weak [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a low - long strategy for long - positions, hold cross - market positive spreads, and stay on the sidelines for options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2601 contract fell to 2,904 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased in various regions [7] - **Related Information**: Policies guide project layout, production capacity utilization rate changes, and raw material prices decline [8][9] - **Logic Analysis**: The policy has limited impact on production capacity expectations, and the price is restricted by import and oversupply [12] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [13] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract fell to 20,730 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [14] - **Related Information**: US economic data is released, inventory decreases, and the photovoltaic installation shows a downward trend [14] - **Trading Logic**: The short - term price is in shock due to economic data and inventory changes, with potential for seasonal inventory build - up [17] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be shock - weak, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [18][19] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [21] - **Related Information**: Policies affect the recycled aluminum industry, warehouse receipts increase, and downstream enterprises' holiday arrangements change [21][22] - **Trading Logic**: The price is restricted by tight raw materials and extended holidays of downstream enterprises [23][25] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [26][27] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2511 fell to 21,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased [29] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and a mining company obtains a new mining license [30] - **Logic Analysis**: The mine production may decrease in October, and the refined zinc supply may increase [31][33] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term price may rebound, and both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [34] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2511 fell to 16,855 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [36] - **Related Information**: Inventory decreases, and the production and consumption of lead - related industries change [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate is in tight balance, and the consumption in the peak season is under - performing [40] - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline [40] Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2511 fell to 121,100 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changed [42] - **Related Information**: Policies and a mining right auction affect the market [43] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by policies and consumption trends, with a surplus of refined nickel [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Both arbitrage and options should be on the sidelines [44] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2511 contract fell to 12,760 yuan/ton, and the spot price range is given [47] - **Important Information**: India approves steel certifications [48] - **Logic Analysis**: The production increases, but the demand has not shown seasonality, and it is expected to shock at a high level [48] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, and arbitrage should be on the sidelines [49][50] Tin - **Market Review**: The main Shanghai tin 2511 contract closed at 272,410 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [52] - **Related Information**: US policies and economic data, and industry development plans are announced [54][55] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is tight, and the demand is weak, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [56] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and options should be on the sidelines [57][58] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures closed at 8,610 yuan/ton, and the spot price of some grades decreased [61][62] - **Related Information**: The export volume increases [63] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The inventory structure may cause feedback, and the price may correct in the short - term [64] - **Strategy**: The price may correct in the short - term, and long positions can be entered after the correction. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit, and no arbitrage opportunity [65] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures closed at 51,280 yuan/ton, and the spot price was stable [66] - **Related Information**: A research shows the feasibility of EU's solar component production [66] - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The spot price is stable, but there is pressure on the contract due to warehouse receipt cancellation, and the demand is expected to weaken [67] - **Strategy**: The price may decline in the short - term, exit long positions first, and re - enter after sufficient correction. Do reverse arbitrage for 2511 and 2512 contracts, and sell out - of - the - money put options to take profit [67][69] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2511 contract rose to 73,920 yuan/ton, and the spot price decreased [70] - **Important Information**: Projects in Argentina and China are progressing, and policies are announced [71][72] - **Logic Analysis**: The demand is strong, and the supply growth is narrowing, and it is expected to maintain a shock pattern [73] - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to have a wide - range shock, arbitrage should be on the sidelines, and sell out - of - the - money put options [74] Second Part: Non - Ferrous Industry Prices and Related Data - Multiple tables and figures present daily data and price trends of various non - ferrous metals, including spot prices, premiums, spreads, inventory, and production profits, comparing data from different dates and showing changes compared to the previous weekend and the end of the previous month [77][88][104]

截至发稿，天山铝业市值为541亿元。 每经AI快讯，天山铝业（SZ 002532，收盘价：11.64元）9月29日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告披露 日，本次回购方案已实施完毕。公司通过回购专用证券账户以集中竞价方式累计回购公司股份2370.52 万股，占公司总股本的0.51%，最高成交价为9.79元/股，最低成交价为7.41元/股，已使用资金总额约为 2亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——农夫大战怡宝，抢到更多蛋糕的却是宗馥莉！农夫绿瓶上市后，怡宝上 演"滑铁卢"：市占率大跌近5个百分点 2025年1至6月份，天山铝业的营业收入构成为：铝行业占比100.0%。 （记者 王晓波） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a complex situation with different trends in various segments including futures, spot, upstream, and downstream markets. Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as policy, supply - demand balance, and international economic data. Different types of aluminum products (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloy) have their own supply - demand characteristics, and the report suggests light - position oscillatory trading in all cases while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,730 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was 20 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract position was 203,858 lots, down 8,862 lots; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,649 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, up 1,775 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83, up 0.04 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,904 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was - 37 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main contract position was 292,517 lots, down 13,932 lots [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 20,270 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was - 90 yuan, down 65 yuan; the main contract position was 11,805 lots, down 28 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 20,830 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 40 yuan, down 65 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium/discount was - 30 yuan, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 4.7 dollars/ton, down 2.6 dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price was 2,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 9 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy was 630 yuan, down 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly production was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the national monthly opening rate was 82.93%, down 1.09 percentage points; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance was 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons; the export volume was 18 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import volume was 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume was 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume was 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume was 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons; the export volume was 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the opening rate was 98.11%, up 0.33 percentage points; the social inventory was 56.70 million tons, down 3.10 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 53 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The monthly output was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the total built - up production capacity was 126 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 6.24%, down 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.05%, unchanged; the call - put ratio was 1.17, down 0.0227; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option was slightly decreased [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Eight departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metal Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metal industry and about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [2]. - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, with the US, EU, and Brazil ranking in the top three [2]. - The US August core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased for the third consecutive month [2]. - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 46929.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year [2]. 3.8 Views on Different Aluminum Products - **Alumina**: The main contract shows an oscillatory trend with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the demand will increase slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main contract oscillates weakly with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will be boosted. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract oscillates weakly with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply growth will slow down, and the demand will increase. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2].