Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [6][110]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that copper prices have risen significantly due to the U.S. increasing tariffs on aluminum and steel, with weekly price changes for London copper, Shanghai copper, and New York copper being +1.60%, +1.71%, and +2.78% respectively [7]. - The report suggests that the short-term outlook for copper prices remains volatile, with a focus on financial attributes such as U.S. import investigations and economic data [7]. - For aluminum, the report notes a continuous reduction in inventory, with aluminum prices maintaining stability despite slight fluctuations [7]. - Lithium prices are experiencing a downward trend, with a significant drop in lithium carbonate and spodumene prices, indicating a potential for future production cuts [7]. - Cobalt prices are under pressure due to weak demand, but potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo could present rebound opportunities [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a strong performance, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index rising 3.74%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.61 percentage points [13]. - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is positive, with specific segments like rare earths and new materials performing well [13]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices increased by 1.60%, while Shanghai copper rose by 1.71%. The inventory levels for London copper decreased by 11.66% [27]. - The report notes that the copper smelting profit margin is currently negative at -2622 yuan/ton, but losses are narrowing [27]. 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices fell by 0.29%, and Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 0.10%. The report highlights a decrease in both London and Shanghai aluminum inventories [39]. - The profit margin for aluminum smelting has decreased by 1.86% to 3564 yuan/ton [39]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased by 1.18% in London and 0.39% in Shanghai, while zinc prices rose by 0.36% in London and 0.11% in Shanghai [51]. - The report indicates that the smelting profit for zinc is stable at 3600 yuan/ton, with mining profits decreasing slightly [51]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices saw a significant increase, with London tin prices rising by 6.23% and Shanghai tin prices increasing by 3.96% [65]. - Nickel prices also experienced growth, with domestic nickel iron enterprises showing increased profitability [65]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices are on a downward trend, with lithium carbonate prices falling by 0.82% to 60200 yuan/ton and spodumene prices dropping by 7.40% to 626 USD/ton [79]. - The report indicates that the profit margins for lithium smelting are currently negative, suggesting a challenging market environment [79]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are under pressure, with domestic cobalt prices decreasing by 0.43% to 233000 yuan/ton. The report notes potential for recovery based on policy changes in the DRC [91].

证券研究报告 2025年06月08日 有色金属 铝行业周报：美国再度提升铝关税，需求淡季预期提升 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨（证券分析师） 王璇（证券分析师） S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -20% -12% -4% 5% 13% 21% 2024/06 2024/09 2024/12 2025/03 2025/06 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：关税压力有望进一步缓和，淡季去库表现好（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-06-03 《铝行业周报：国内政策利好释放，几内亚铝土矿供应扰动（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-05-25 《铝行业周报：中美双边关税大幅下降，库存维持强势表现（推荐）*有色金 属*王璇，陈晨》——2025-05-18 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.6% | 2.3% | 7.3% | | 沪深300 | 1.7% | -2. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and highlights its strong dividend attributes, maintaining a leading position in the aluminum industry [1][2] - A significant asset restructuring is underway, with the company planning to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 63.518 billion RMB, which is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce the company's costs, particularly in the Shandong region, where self-supplied power is prevalent [3] - The company expects to see profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum segment from the second half of 2025 to 2026, despite short-term demand fluctuations [4] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 16.129 billion RMB, 17.751 billion RMB, and 21.285 billion RMB respectively [5] - The report estimates a target price of 15.37 HKD based on a PE ratio of 8.5 for 2025, reflecting an increase in the dividend payout ratio to over 60% [5][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 138.58 billion RMB, with a slight decline expected compared to 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company is optimistic about long-term aluminum prices and has a strong dividend profile, which supports the investment thesis [1][2] - The planned acquisition of 100% equity in Hongtuo Industrial by the holding company Hongchuang Holdings is expected to enhance the company's market influence and asset securitization level [2] - The decline in energy prices is anticipated to reduce costs, while the upcoming production of the Simandou iron ore project is expected to contribute positively to the company's performance [3] Summary by Sections Acquisition and Restructuring - Hongchuang Holdings plans to issue shares to acquire 100% of Hongtuo Industrial for approximately 635.18 billion RMB, which will slightly dilute the company's shareholding from 95.30% to about 88.99% [2] Cost and Production Outlook - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao Port for the first five months of 2025 was 703 RMB/ton, down from 872 RMB/ton in 2024, which is expected to lower electricity costs in Shandong [3] - The Simandou iron ore project is expected to commence production by the end of 2025, with a designed capacity of 60 million tons per year [3] Aluminum Price and Profitability - Short-term demand for electrolytic aluminum may face seasonal declines, but supply constraints and high demand in sectors like new energy vehicles are expected to keep prices stable [4] - The company forecasts a gradual increase in aluminum prices from 2025 to 2026, with a projected net profit of 161.29 billion RMB in 2025 [5] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 161.29 billion RMB, 177.51 billion RMB, and 212.85 billion RMB respectively [5] - The target price is set at 15.37 HKD, with a historical average PE ratio of 7.03X since 2017 [5][9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum (unilateral): Cautiously bullish [4] - Alumina (unilateral): Neutral [4] - Aluminum (arbitrage): Long the near and short the far in SHFE aluminum [5] Core View - The price of aluminum is strongly affected by cost factors and shows a strong performance. The downstream acceptance of aluminum is poor, and the consumer sustainability may change in June. For alumina, the top of the spot price may have appeared, and the price is still under great pressure in the long - term due to the expectation of supply surplus [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - Aluminum spot: On June 4, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of Yangtze River A00 aluminum decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton. The Zhongyuan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton. The Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,130 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [1] - Aluminum futures: On June 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE aluminum opened at 19,900 yuan/ton, closed at 20,075 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 160,576 lots, a decrease of 22,947 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 189,969 lots, a decrease of 1,175 lots [1] - Inventory: As of June 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 519,000 tons. As of June 4, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 367,875 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] Alumina Price and Inventory - Alumina spot: On June 4, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] - Alumina futures: On June 4, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,995 yuan/ton, closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 2.17% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 610,813 lots, an increase of 187,670 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 299,898 lots, a decrease of 11,326 lots [2] Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Frequent coal mine accidents in Shanxi have a wide - ranging impact on the cost side, and the aluminum price has risen. The downstream acceptance is poor, and the spot premium has declined. There are no negative factors on the supply side at home and abroad. The consumer sustainability may change in June. The industry profit is rich, and it is difficult for the aluminum price to break through upward without unexpected positive stimuli [3] - Alumina: The trading rhythm of the spot market has slowed down, and the top of the spot price may have appeared. The supply is increasing, and the social inventory reduction has slowed down. The current futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and the price is still under pressure in the long - term [3]

铝类产业日报 2025/6/3 免责声明 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 19,860.00 | -210.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,998.00 | +36.00↑ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 70.00 | -25.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 64.00 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that tariff pressures are expected to ease further, and the off-season destocking performance is better than anticipated. The aluminum industry is likely to experience a continuous trend of destocking and price increases, supported by improving export conditions [10] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, maintaining a high level of industry prosperity [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 30, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,448.5 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20,070.0 per ton [14][20] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20,240.0 per ton, down ¥160.0 from the previous week [20] 2. Production - In May 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, an increase of 123,000 tons month-on-month and 214,000 tons year-on-year [53] - The production of alumina in May 2025 was 7.272 million tons, up 189,000 tons month-on-month and 593,000 tons year-on-year [53] 3. Inventory - As of May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 511,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of aluminum rods was recorded at 128,300 tons, with a slight decrease of 2,500 tons week-on-week [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a slight increase in the alloying ratio affecting the delivery situation [7] - Demand from downstream sectors is showing signs of weakness, particularly in photovoltaic aluminum and automotive materials, while cable orders remain strong due to state grid demand [7]

Report Title - Aluminum Strategy Monthly Report, June 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In June, the supply and demand of alumina will both increase, with the overall复产 volume being higher, reversing the de - stocking trend. The overall fluctuation center will decline as costs decrease, and there are many uncertainties in the ore end, leading to a wider fluctuation range. The supply increase of electrolytic aluminum is limited, with both off - season demand pressure and structural resilience coexisting, and the sector differentiation is more obvious. New energy vehicles, UHV cables, and export windows are the main highlights. At the beginning of the month, the low - level de - stocking provides support for the market, but after a marginal surplus appears, it may enter a stocking phase, and the overall operating center will decline slightly. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and stocking performance, and be vigilant against the risk of excessive decline [3] Summary by Directory Price - In May, the alumina futures fluctuated higher, with the main contract closing at 2,962 yuan/ton on the 30th, a monthly increase of 8.5%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,070 yuan/ton on the 30th, a monthly increase of 0.8% [5] Spread - In May, the alumina spread widened from a premium of 171 yuan/ton to a premium of 315 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum spread changed from a discount of 20 yuan/ton to a premium of 110 yuan/ton [5] Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina in May will increase to 86.96 million tons, with a production of 7.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum in May remained stable at 43.91 million tons, with a production of 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.7%, and the aluminum - water ratio slightly dropped to 74% [3][5] Demand - The late - stage strength of cables combined with concentrated export rush led to a narrowing decline in the off - season start - up rate. In May, the average start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 61.6%, a 0.6% decline compared to April. Among them, the start - up rate of aluminum sheets and strips decreased by 0.65% to 67.4%, the start - up rate of aluminum foils decreased by 1.66% to 70.99%, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 2.13% to 56.75%, and the start - up rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.85% to 65.1% [3][5] Inventory - In terms of exchange inventories, in May, the alumina inventory decreased by 101,800 tons to 135,000 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 37,300 tons to 141,300 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 42,500 tons to 375,000 tons. In terms of social inventories, the alumina inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 25,000 tons, the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 132,000 tons to 511,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 22,700 tons to 128,300 tons [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, awaiting further macroeconomic catalysts. The weekly changes in copper prices are -0.05% for London copper, -0.24% for Shanghai copper, and -3.35% for New York copper. Domestic copper inventory has increased by 7.2% to 106,000 tons [5][22] - Aluminum prices are stable with ongoing inventory depletion. The price of alumina has risen by 2.95% to 3,320 CNY/ton, while electrolytic aluminum prices have decreased by 0.40% to 20,100 CNY/ton [5][31] - Lithium prices continue to decline, with carbonate lithium down 3.73% to 60,700 CNY/ton. The supply side has not shown significant production cuts yet, which is a major factor suppressing lithium prices [5][72] - Cobalt prices remain under pressure due to weak demand, with potential policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo that could create rebound opportunities [5][84] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector has underperformed, with the Shenwan non-ferrous index down 2.40%, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.38 percentage points [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 17.86, down 0.50 from the previous week, while the PB_LF is 2.05, down 0.06 [17][20] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - London copper prices decreased by 0.05%, while Shanghai copper prices fell by 0.24%. London copper inventory dropped by 9.02%, while Shanghai inventory increased by 7.22% [22] 2.2 Aluminum - London aluminum prices increased by 0.02%, while Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 0.40%. The inventory of both London and Shanghai aluminum has decreased [31] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - London lead prices fell by 1.29%, and Shanghai lead prices decreased by 0.92%. London zinc prices dropped by 0.67%, while Shanghai zinc prices fell by 0.07% [42] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - London tin prices decreased by 6.80%, and Shanghai tin prices fell by 4.45%. Nickel prices also saw a decline [57] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 3.73% to 60,700 CNY/ton, with lithium demand currently in a seasonal downturn [72] 3.2 Cobalt - Domestic cobalt prices decreased by 1.68% to 234,000 CNY/ton, with potential for policy changes in the DRC to impact future prices [84]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the aluminum sector, indicating a positive outlook due to ongoing inventory depletion and price support for aluminum [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that domestic aluminum inventories continue to decrease, providing stable support for aluminum prices around 20,000 yuan per ton. The market is transitioning from peak to off-peak consumption, with current inventory levels being among the lowest in three years [8][9]. - The copper sector is also viewed positively, with recommendations for specific companies such as Zijin Mining, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, as global copper supply remains tight [2][9]. Industry Data Summary Aluminum Industry - As of May 29, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stands at 511,000 tons, down by 23,000 tons from the previous week, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [8]. - The report notes that the aluminum rod inventory has also decreased, albeit at a slower pace, with current levels around 128,300 tons, which is still low compared to historical data [8]. Copper Industry - The report mentions that as of the latest data, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventory is 105,800 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 7,120 tons, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventory decreased by 16,650 tons to 149,900 tons [2][9]. - The global visible copper inventory is reported at 472,000 tons, down by 12,656 tons from the previous week, indicating a tightening supply situation [2]. Tungsten and Rare Metals - The report indicates that tungsten prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with domestic tungsten concentrate prices at 169,500 yuan per ton and APT prices at 248,000 yuan per ton [9]. - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from tungsten price elasticity and those involved in the strategic reassessment of rare metals [9].