中信期货认为，中短期来看，供应扰动问题持续发酵和股期联动炒作引发部分品种脉冲上涨，铜价领涨 基本金属，但若无进一步的宏观利多，基本金属快速冲高后仍需谨防回落风险，长期来看，国内潜在增 量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，这将进一步推高基本金属价 格。 有色股持续走低，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)跌10.44%，报45.72港元；中国有色矿业 (01258)跌9.72%，报14.77港元；山东黄金（600547）(01787)跌7.18%，报39.04港元；洛阳钼业 （603993）(03993)跌6.66%，报16.4港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)跌4.36%，报36.42港元。 消息面上，美元指数连日来持续反弹，并突破99大关。浙商证券（601878）指出，国庆节期间美元指数 反弹的逻辑类似黄金，主要源于美国政府关门带来的阶段性避险偏好。展望未来，美元指数反弹的逻辑 仍然源于当前市场对于美国的衰退预期可能被纠偏。此外，由于中东地缘冲突缓和叠加美元指数周四显 著上涨，国际金价高位跳水，截至发稿，现货黄金失守3960美元/盎司。 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Polyolefin [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team including researchers for polyolefin, crude oil, PTA, etc. [4] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | Highest | Lowest | Change | Change Rate | Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 22230 | 22375 | 22455 | 22210 | 115 | 0.52% | 38685 | -4326 | | Plastic 2605 | 22220 | 22395 | 22465 | 22200 | 150 | 0.67% | 105259 | -2533 | | Plastic 2509 | 22210 | 22390 | 22445 | 22185 | 160 | 0.72% | 38208 | 1139 | | PP2601 | 16790 | 16845 | 16895 | 16755 | 85 | 0.51% | 27975 | -13190 | | PP2605 | 16815 | 16865 | 16900 | 16765 | 100 | 0.60% | 47516 | 3616 | | PP2509 | 16825 | 16870 | 16905 | 16785 | 100 | 0.60% | 10131 | 1064 | [5] Specific Contracts Quotes - L2601 closed at 7423 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (0.51%), with 260,000 lots traded and positions decreasing by 364 to 393,878 lots - PP2601 closed at 7074 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan (0.43%), with positions increasing by 3197 to 468,800 lots [6] Group 4: Market Analysis - Futures showed a warm and oscillating trend, supporting the market atmosphere. Traders adjusted their quotes following the factory prices, with some quotes slightly rising to actively sell goods, but downstream market entry intention was low and actual transactions were mediocre - A 450,000 - ton new device of Ningbo Daxie Phase II Line 1 is planned to be put into operation at the end of August, and Line 2 (also 450,000 tons) is planned for September. Although the upstream supply cannot be completely eliminated in the short - term, the demand side is gradually transitioning to the peak season, and the overall downstream operating rate is expected to increase - Concerns from the policy side due to over - capacity in the chemical industry, and positive macro news over the weekend supported a warm sentiment, leading to a continuous rebound in polyolefins [6] Group 5: Industry News and Data Inventory Data - On August 25, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a 20,000 - ton increase (2.74%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 775,000 tons [9] Price Data - PE market prices continued to rise. LLDPE prices in North China were 7220 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton, and in South China 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6450 - 6490 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous working day. Downstream product profit was average, reducing the acceptance of propylene prices, and the demand support for propylene weakened - The domestic PP market partially showed a warm adjustment, with an adjustment range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China drawstring was 6900 - 7030 yuan/ton, in East China 6920 - 7020 yuan/ton, and in South China 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton [9]

Investment Ratings - Urea: Not clearly defined - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) - Styrene: ★★★ - Polypropylene: ★★★ - Plastic: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term bullish/bearish trend and poor operability on the trading floor) - PVC: ★★☆ (Two stars, indicating a clear bullish/bearish trend and the market is fermenting) - Caustic Soda: ★★☆ - PX: ★★★ - PTA: ★★★ - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ - Short - fiber: ☆☆☆ - Glass: ★★★ - Soda Ash: ★★★ - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ - Propylene: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market has different trends. Propylene futures are under pressure, and polyolefin futures are boosted by macro factors but face supply and demand challenges [2]. - The pure benzene - styrene market is affected by news of potential over - capacity solutions, with significant price fluctuations in pure benzene and a consolidating pattern in styrene [3]. - The polyester market, including PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle chips, is influenced by over - capacity news, with different supply - demand and price trends [5]. - The coal - chemical market, including methanol and urea, has its own supply - demand characteristics and is affected by market sentiment and export news [6]. - The chlor - alkali market, including PVC and caustic soda, shows different price trends due to supply - demand differences [7]. - The soda ash - glass market is in a weak situation, with high inventory in the soda ash industry and continued decline in glass prices [8]. Summary by Category Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures closed up but below the 5 - day moving average, with sufficient supply and insufficient downstream follow - up. Polyolefin futures were boosted by macro factors. Polyethylene has supply pressure and slow - growing demand, while polypropylene has supply support but slow - recovering demand [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices fluctuated greatly due to news of potential over - capacity solutions. There is a possibility of seasonal improvement in the third quarter and pressure in the fourth quarter. Styrene futures are in a consolidating pattern, with cost support but limited downstream demand [3]. Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded due to over - capacity news. There is an expected improvement in PX supply - demand in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol has profit - repair potential. Short - fiber and bottle chips are driven by raw materials, with different supply - demand situations [5]. Coal - Chemical - Methanol prices stopped falling and rebounded, with high port inventory and weak coastal supply - demand. Urea prices are affected by market sentiment and export news, with a loose short - term supply - demand situation [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC is in a weak operation, with increased export pressure and high inventory. Caustic soda is strong in the short term due to replenishment demand but faces long - term supply pressure [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices dropped significantly, with high inventory throughout the industry. Glass prices continued to decline, with weak demand and high production capacity [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team, including Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, and Yu Feifei [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - favorable factors are exhausted, the commodity market continues to decline, and non - ferrous metals close down across the board. The Shanghai zinc futures price closes at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan or 1.52%, with increased volume and reduced positions. The LME zinc inventory continues to decrease, and the注销仓单 ratio remains high. After the macro situation is settled, there is no super - expected stimulus, but the anti - involution policy is still an important policy direction. The loose pattern of zinc concentrates continues to be transmitted to the zinc ingot end, and the over - supply pressure during the off - season of demand is reflected in the inventory. The price logic may gradually return to the fundamentals, and the Shanghai zinc price still has room to decline [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For different delivery months of Shanghai zinc futures (2508, 2509, 2510), the opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the changes in prices and positions are presented. For example, the 2508 contract opens at 22,595 yuan/ton, closes at 22,635 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 yuan and a decrease in positions of 3,108 [7] - **Market Conditions**: The macro - favorable factors are exhausted, the commodity market declines, and non - ferrous metals close down. The Shanghai zinc price closes at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan or 1.52%, with increased volume and reduced positions. The LME zinc inventory decreases by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons, and the 0 - 3 spread is 2.69C. The market shows that after the macro situation is settled, the price logic may return to the fundamentals, and the Shanghai zinc price has room to decline [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Price and Premium Information**: On July 31, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of different grades of zinc in different regions (Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, Guangdong) are reported, along with the premium or discount information of different brands relative to different contracts and regions. For example, in Shanghai, the 0 zinc mainstream transaction price is 22,340 - 22,620 yuan/ton, and the common domestic brands offer a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] 3.3 Data Overview - **Data Sources**: The data in the report comes from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][15] - **Graphs**: The report mentions graphs such as the trend of zinc prices in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [15][16]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Trends - Recent macroeconomic concerns regarding U.S. debt and deficits have led to a temporary rebound in U.S. Treasury and dollar index, but the previous bullish sentiment in precious metals has not sustained, resulting in profit-taking [1] - The U.S. consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, indicating improved economic outlook among consumers, despite a decline in durable goods orders [2] - The recent geopolitical stability has contributed to a short-term correction in precious metals, with expectations of gold prices potentially reaching $4,000 per ounce by late 2025 or 2026 [3] Group 2: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility due to changes in trade relations between major economies, with a notable drop of nearly $60 in New York futures following shifts in U.S.-EU trade dynamics [4] - The current decline in gold prices marks the third correction since reaching above $3,500 on April 22, suggesting a weakening upward momentum that may indicate a significant market shift if the trend continues [4] - Analysts caution that the market's response to geopolitical narratives is swift, and the recent adjustments in precious metals may not be merely temporary [4]

Group 1 - The short-term macroeconomic positive effects are weakening, and terminal demand is facing downward pressure, leading to an increasing contradiction between supply and demand for rebar if steel mills maintain current supply levels, making it difficult for profits to sustain [1][5] - Recent macroeconomic developments include significant progress in US-China trade talks, with both sides agreeing to substantially reduce bilateral tariffs, and a reduction in the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) by the central bank [1][2] - The apparent consumption of rebar was 2.6029 million tons last week, showing a week-on-week increase of 463,900 tons, indicating some resilience in demand, but the overall downward trend remains unchanged [2] Group 2 - Steel mills have maintained high production levels, with rebar production at 2.2653 million tons last week, an increase of 30,000 tons week-on-week, despite expectations of administrative production restrictions [3] - The average daily pig iron production is at 2.4477 million tons, which is high for this time of year, but the oversupply of coking coal continues, leading to a weak pricing environment for both coking coal and coke [4] - The total inventory of rebar was 6.1987 million tons last week, a decrease of 337,600 tons week-on-week, but if demand weakens further, the supply-demand contradiction may gradually increase [3][4]