Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing a trend of reallocation towards dollar assets and increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Investors are reassessing their allocation to dollar assets due to the downgrade of the US sovereign rating and rising fiscal deficits [1] - Asian bonds are becoming an attractive alternative due to their appealing yields and shorter durations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The decline in local fixed deposit rates to approximately 2% has led investors to consider Asian fixed income as a viable option without taking on excessive risk [1] - Overall yields on Asian bonds are higher than comparable US or European assets, with generally lower volatility [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - For Hong Kong investors, Asian fixed income aids in achieving income, risk management, and regional diversification objectives [1] - Asian fixed income has a low to moderate correlation with major global market bonds such as US Treasuries and German government bonds, providing good risk diversification [1] Group 3: Market Maturity - The local currency bond market in East Asia has significantly matured, with the total amount of local currency bonds increasing from $866 billion in 2000 to over $23 trillion in 2022 [1] - The enhanced market depth contributes to liquidity and attracts foreign investment, further solidifying the stability of this asset class [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global long-term government bonds are experiencing one of the worst months in history due to seasonal selling pressure and multiple structural factors, leading to a continuous rise in long-term bond yields [1] Group 1: Seasonal Trends - September has historically been a "cursed month" for long-term bonds, with a median loss of 2% for government bonds with maturities over 10 years in the past decade [2] - The typical increase in long-term bond issuance in September is a primary reason for the seasonal decline, as there is little issuance in July and August [2] Group 2: Structural Factors - The structural reform of the Dutch pension system is significantly impacting the European long-term bond market, with indicators of future 30-year euro swaps recently rising [4] - The new pension system requires younger members to invest more in risk assets like stocks, reducing the demand for long-term hedging tools, while older members prefer safe assets like bonds but will shorten their duration hedges [6] Group 3: Market Challenges - Global long-term bond markets face additional challenges, including scrutiny over Japan's 10-year and 30-year bond auctions amid leadership uncertainties and expectations of central bank interest rate hikes [7] - In the U.S., upcoming employment data is a key risk point for the market, as traders await confirmation regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the overall bond market is expected to gradually stabilize within a narrow range, with opportunities for short-term credit investments within 3 years, while recommending to wait for better trading opportunities for longer durations [4][9]. - The sentiment in the credit bond market has improved after the short-end correction in mid to late August, but there remains caution regarding longer durations due to weak stability in fund liabilities and strong liquidity demands [4][9]. - The report indicates that the "stock-bond seesaw" effect may weaken, which could be relatively favorable for the bond market, allowing for potential recovery opportunities [4][9]. Group 2 - In the corporate perpetual bond sector, there is potential for configuration value, but it is not yet the right time for trading; only institutions with stable liabilities are recommended to participate cautiously [4][9]. - The issuance of corporate perpetual bonds in August saw a slight decrease, with a total of 141 bonds issued, raising 146 billion yuan, while the repayment scale increased significantly, leading to a net inflow of only 8.6 billion yuan [17][20]. - The report highlights that the financing costs for high-rated issuers have increased, with AAA and AA-rated bonds seeing interest rates rise by 9 basis points and 13 basis points respectively [17][20]. Group 3 - The ABS market is expected to face challenges in seeing opportunities for spread compression in September, but there is a preference for selecting ABS with a stronger safety margin, particularly from urban investment and large central enterprises [12][4]. - The report notes that the liquidity in the ABS market is weakening, and the premium over urban investment bonds has remained stable, with a 3-year spread fluctuating between 25 to 30 basis points [12][4]. - The recommendation is to prioritize ABS types with lower risk, such as revenue rights and affordable housing, while considering the risk appetite and stability of liabilities for other types [12][4]. Group 4 - The report indicates that the secondary market for perpetual bonds is experiencing significant pressure on yield spreads, particularly for medium to long-term bonds, with credit spreads widening [28][29]. - The yield for high-grade medium to long-term perpetual bonds has increased significantly, with the AA-rated 5-year urban investment yield rising by up to 16 basis points [28][29]. - The report emphasizes that the market is currently under pressure from the "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with weak sentiment leading to upward trends in yields [28][29].

Core Views - The report indicates that the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased significantly following Powell's speech on August 22, which may also raise expectations for a rate cut by the People's Bank of China. However, due to factors such as pressure on bank net interest margins, the likelihood of a rate cut within the year is considered low, although a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is anticipated [2][10] - The liquidity environment remains generally loose, with short-term interest rates showing little change. Key indicators to monitor in September include the maturity of 2.27 trillion yuan in pledged repos at the beginning of the month, a noticeable increase in the maturity of certificates of deposit starting from the second week, and the seasonal pressures at the end of the month [2][10] Government Debt Issuance - It is projected that government debt issuance in September 2025 will range from 2.11 to 2.26 trillion yuan, with net financing expected to be between 0.94 and 1.10 trillion yuan, which is lower than the 1.33 trillion yuan in August. Specifically, the issuance of treasury bonds is expected to be 1.43 trillion yuan, with net financing of 0.67 trillion yuan, while local government bonds are expected to be issued between 0.68 and 0.83 trillion yuan, with net financing of 0.27 to 0.43 trillion yuan [3][17] - The report highlights that the issuance of local government bonds has been notably diverse since August 8, with 226 bonds issued totaling 848.1 billion yuan, averaging 3.753 billion yuan per bond. The report notes that the actual issuance levels for various maturities have shown a tendency to increase, particularly for 15-year bonds, which have the highest actual spread at around 30 basis points [4][26] Local Government Debt Strategy - The report indicates that the spread between 15-year local government bonds and treasury bonds reached 31 basis points at the end of August, marking a 100% percentile level since 2024. Funds began net buying local government bonds in the last week of August, primarily focusing on the longer end of the curve, specifically 15-20 year bonds [5][58] - The report suggests that under the current treasury yield levels, 10-year local government bonds yielding over 2% and 30-year bonds yielding over 2.3% are considered high and may present investment opportunities. Specific bonds identified as having value include 25 Guangdong Bond 42, 25 Guangdong Bond 41, 25 Jiangsu Bond 42, and 25 Sichuan 56 [5][58] Money Market Rate Tracking - The report notes that the 1-year large bank negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) rate increased from 1.63% at the beginning of August to 1.67% by the end of the month. The maturity scale of NCDs is expected to rise further to 3.55 trillion yuan in September, which is the second-highest historical level, indicating increased pressure for renewal [20][28] Open Market Operations - As of August 29, the total balance of the central bank's open market operations was 134.021 trillion yuan, with pledged repos at 22.731 trillion yuan and medium-term lending facility (MLF) at 55.500 trillion yuan. The report anticipates continued provision of medium-term liquidity support in September [11][39]

| 11 1 2 11 11 | | | --- | --- | | SOURCE POINT | SOURCE | | -- | | | 乖 亦安期货 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/02 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国外债券市场 股 票 市 场 汇 率 市 场 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market is likely to maintain the current stock - bond performance, and the headwind period for the bond market is not over yet [3][25] - The relatively weak PMI data in August and the high expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may lead to further loosening of the domestic aggregate policy in the fourth quarter [3][25] - After the two major macro - events in September (domestic military parade and whether the Fed cuts interest rates) are settled, the bond market may enter a favorable period at the end of September and in the fourth quarter [3][25] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week Data Review - **Funds Rate**: DR001 was basically at 1.32% from August 25th to 29th, down about 9BP from last week, and closed at 1.33% on August 29th; R001 first decreased and then increased, closing at a weekly high of 1.42% on August 29th. DR007 hovered around 1.51% from August 25th to 29th and closed at 1.52% on August 29th. FR007 dropped 4BP from 1.58% on August 25th to 1.54% on August 26th and returned to 1.52% on August 29th [8] - **Open - Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase投放 volume reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with a total maturity volume of 2122 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 166.1 billion yuan, the smallest net injection this month [8] - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread narrowed. The US 6 - month SOFR rate slightly rose from 4.04% on August 25th to 4.02% on August 29th; the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.61%. As of August 29th, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 241BP, and the inversion narrowed slightly. The 2 - year/10 - year spreads were - 218BP and - 239BP respectively, with the long - and short - end spreads narrowing slightly [18] - **Term Spread**: The term spread of Chinese bonds slightly widened, while that of US bonds gradually narrowed. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.40%, and the 10 - year was 1.84%, with a 10 - 2 - year spread of 43BP. The US bond yield fell slightly, with the 2 - year yield down 14BP to 3.59% and the 10 - year down 5BP to 4.23%, and the 10 - 2 - year spread widened to 64BP [18] - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The Chinese bond yield curve shifted upward, and the US bond yield curve shifted slightly downward. Except for the 10 - year Chinese bond yield rising 7BP, the overall change was small. The 3 - month and 2 - 3 - year yields decreased by 1 - 2BP, and the 1 - year and 5 - year yields rose 1BP. The US bond yield decreased by more than 5BP overall, with the 2 - year yield down 14BP (the largest decline) and the 3 - 5 - year yields down 10BP [19] 2. Real Estate High - Frequency Data Tracking - **First - Tier Cities**: The overall transaction volume of commercial housing in first - tier cities remained low and volatile. The average daily transaction area was 61,400 square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was 544 units. August 29th was the weekly high, with a transaction area of 73,200 square meters and 640 units, also the highest in the past two weeks; August 25th was the weekly low, with a transaction area of 56,400 square meters and 500 units [26][27] - **Ten Major Cities**: The transaction data of commercial housing in ten major cities rebounded compared with last week. The average daily transaction area was about 113,900 square meters, an increase of 19,000 square meters per day compared with last week. In 2021, the average daily transaction area was about 254,900 square meters [27] - **30 Large and Medium - Sized Cities**: The transaction volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities remained at a historical low. The average daily transaction area was about 240,000 square meters, and the average daily transaction volume was about 2225 units. August 28th was the weekly peak [27]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the liquidity in the market is expected to remain stable despite the increased maturity scale of public market funds in early September, with various factors influencing the overall liquidity situation [1][4][7] - Analysts predict that government bond issuance and fiscal fund allocation will inject approximately 190 billion yuan into the banking system, while regular fiscal revenue and expenditure are expected to provide over 1.1 trillion yuan in support [1][4] - The net liquidity supplement for September is estimated to be around 780 billion yuan, considering the consumption of liquidity from credit issuance, cash demand, and foreign exchange reserves [1][4] Group 2 - The long-term bond rates are approaching previous adjustment highs, and there are trading opportunities in long-term bonds, especially when rates peak [3][4] - The 10-year government bond's fluctuation space is expected to be around 1.7-1.8%, with a risk of reduced cost-effectiveness if it falls below 1.75% [3] - Investment strategies suggest maintaining a slightly lower duration in portfolios and considering a barbell structure for bond selection, focusing on short-term credit bonds and long-term active bonds [3][4] Group 3 - In the credit bond sector, there is a focus on areas benefiting from "artificial intelligence+" and high-quality urban development policies, particularly in cities that can leverage urban integration and technological innovation [5] - Specific regions are highlighted for potential investment, including those with strong economic development and significant industrial clusters [5] Group 4 - The convertible bond market shows signs of valuation compression, but historical trends suggest that this may not indicate the end of the convertible bond rally [6] - Investment strategies recommend focusing on high-growth technology sectors and mid-to-upstream segments that have not yet been priced in for recovery [6] Group 5 - The government bond ETF for 5-10 years has shown a net value increase of 21.02% over the past five years, with a strong historical performance in terms of monthly returns and profitability [8][9] - The ETF has a management fee of 0.15% and a tracking error of 0.028%, indicating effective management and alignment with the underlying index [9]

Group 1: Market Liquidity and Trends - In early September, the scale of public market maturities increased significantly, with the weekly reverse repurchase maturity reaching a new high for the year [1] - Analysts expect that fiscal spending and central bank support will offset seasonal disturbances, maintaining overall liquidity at a reasonable level [1] - Government bond issuance and fiscal fund allocation are projected to inject approximately 190 billion yuan into the banking system, while regular fiscal revenue is expected to provide over 1.1 trillion yuan in support [1] Group 2: Financial Leasing Industry - By the end of 2024, the balance of direct leasing assets for financial leasing companies is expected to reach 640.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.73% [2] - The total number of financial leasing companies is projected to be 67, with total assets and leasing assets reaching 4.58 trillion yuan and 4.38 trillion yuan, respectively, both showing year-on-year growth of 9.65% and 10.24% [2] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the least market discount in the past week at 2 basis points, with a net inflow of 52 million yuan [5] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.568 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [6] - The number of shares for the company bond ETF reached 213 million, the highest in nearly three months [7] Group 4: Fund Flows and Returns - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 159 million yuan, totaling 201 million yuan [8] - The company bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.60% over the past five years, with a maximum monthly return of 1.22% since inception [8] - The management fee rate for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [9]

如果以历史为鉴，长期债券9月的行情可能不妙。据汇编数据，过去十年，全球10年期以上政府债券9月 的跌幅中值为2%，为一年之内最差的月度表现。这种趋势将令债券投资者感到担忧，今年以来，由于 担心各国政府将加大举债以兑现支出承诺，长期债券的表现已经落后于较短期债券。日本通胀粘性、法 国政局动荡、以及围绕美国总统特朗普可能敦促美联储降息的猜测，这些因素都加剧了各国长端债券的 价格压力。"现在的市场感觉非常糟糕，"Fivestar Asset Management驻东京的高级投资组合经理Hideo Shimomura表示。"9月通常是货币政策急转的月份"。将于周五公布的美国非农就业数据对市场构成短 期风险，交易员正在等待确认对美联储本月降息的押注。欧元区通胀数据也备受关注，以留意任何潜在 的意外情况，市场普遍预计决策者下周将维持利率不变。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Market Overview - US stock market was closed on September 1 due to Labor Day holiday [1] - European major indices saw slight increases, with Germany's DAX up 0.57%, France's CAC40 up 0.05%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.1% [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metals futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.84% at $3545.8 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.46% at $41.725 per ounce [1] - US crude oil main contract increased by 0.94% to $64.61 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract rose by 1.01% to $68.16 per barrel [1] Currency and Metal Markets - At the New York close, the US dollar index fell by 0.18% to 97.68, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar decreased by 131 basis points to 7.1351 [1] - Most London base metals saw price increases, with LME lead up 0.80% at $2007.00 per ton, LME zinc up 0.50% at $2833.00 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.35% at $15475.00 per ton; however, LME copper fell by 0.27% to $9875.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - Eurozone bond yields generally increased, with the UK 10-year government bond yield rising by 3 basis points to 4.750%, France's by 2.5 basis points to 3.534%, Germany's by 2.2 basis points to 2.744%, Italy's by 2.2 basis points to 3.606%, and Spain's by 2.1 basis points to 3.349% [1]