Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.19% to 3952.09, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.17% to 13554.07, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.15% to 3234.63 [4][6] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.45 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 251.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5] Sector Performance - The AI industry chain experienced a collective pullback, with sectors like CPO, liquid cooling, and high-speed copper concepts leading the declines [4][6] - The lithium battery industry chain surged, with companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining reaching historical highs [4][10] - The commercial aerospace sector showed mixed performance, with some stocks hitting the daily limit [8] Notable Stocks - Zijin Mining reached a historical high, increasing by 3.47% to 33.14 yuan [11] - Hunan Silver and other precious metal stocks saw gains, with Hunan Silver rising over 3% [17] - The stock of Xiangri Technology fell over 16% after receiving a notice from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [15][16] Commodity Market - The futures market saw significant movements, with palladium futures rising over 8% and platinum futures hitting the daily limit with a 9.99% increase [20][21] - Spot gold prices exceeded $4530 per ounce, setting a new historical high, while silver prices surpassed $75 per ounce [19]

Report Date - The report is dated December 26, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy [2] - For the black metals maintaining a large - amplitude volatile market, construct a short - volatility portfolio strategy [2] - For precious metals rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread portfolio strategy [2] Summary of Each Section 1. Futures Market Overview - The table presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of various metal futures contracts [3] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open - interest PCR of different metal options are provided, along with their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure - point offsets, support points, support - point offsets, maximum call option holdings, and maximum put option holdings of different metal options are given, helping to identify potential price barriers and supports [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied - volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various metal options are presented [6] 5. Option Strategies and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Silver**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: For manganese silicon, construct a short - volatility strategy; for silicon iron, construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot hedging - related strategy [13][14] - **Industrial Silicon**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing different commodities. Geopolitical events, supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic conditions are the main drivers of price movements. For example, geopolitical conflicts often provide short - term price support, but in the long run, supply - demand fundamentals play a dominant role [1][21]. - Many commodities are in a state of supply - demand adjustment, with some facing oversupply (e.g., alumina), while others have potential supply shortages (e.g., nickel in the future). Market sentiment and expectations also have a significant impact on prices, such as the impact of减产 expectations on polycrystalline silicon [5][12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Due to attacks on Russian ports and slow repairs, Kazakhstan's December CPC crude exports will hit a 14 - month low. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling. Geopolitical conflicts may cause short - term price rebounds, but the long - term trend is towards a lower price center due to loose supply [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil rose sharply, mainly driven by geopolitical news. However, in the medium term, supply is abundant. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weak as supply increases [20]. - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is marginally loose. Geopolitical conflicts boost prices from the cost side, but it will eventually return to a price - pressured pattern due to supply - demand [21]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks, domestic precious metals are strong. Volatility is high in the short term [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Domestic spot supply - demand gives copper price adjustment pressure, but raw material shortages may be transmitted to refined copper. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals have limited contradictions. It follows the rise of other metals, and long positions can be held with the 40 - day line as support [4]. - **Alumina**: Supply is in excess, and the price is weak until significant production cuts occur [5]. - **Zinc**: The bottom support is strong, and the price range is expected to be 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton in January [7]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton under the game of cost and consumption [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Policy news has a major impact. Wait for market disturbances to end and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Tin**: Pay attention to the MA10 moving average. There are risks at high levels, and it is recommended to configure out - of - the - money put options for spring contracts [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong [11]. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene supply is loose, and the prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are under downward pressure [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may run in a low - level range, and caustic soda is expected to have limited upward space [27]. - **PX & PTA**: PX has a strong expected pattern, and PTA's upward drive comes from PX. Keep a long - term long - allocation idea [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It oscillates at a low price, and the supply - demand may improve in the second quarter [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The trading logic returns to concerns about US soybean exports and South American production expectations. Soybean meal will follow the trend of US soybeans [34]. - **Vegetable Oils**: The macro - sentiment is improving, and the fundamentals of palm oil are less bearish. Pay attention to South American crop weather [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of rapeseed is in excess globally. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds in the medium term and a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [36]. - **Corn**: The futures contract may oscillate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the selling progress in the Northeast and auctions [38]. - **Pigs**: The futures price of the main contract is expected to be weak in the first half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Take a long - term long - position view, but beware of rapid price increases due to capital front - running [40]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as fast sales and low commercial inventory. Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price rebound may be limited [42]. - **Apples**: The market is bearish, and a short - position strategy is recommended [43]. Others - **Industrial Silicon**: Driven by the expectation of concentrated production cuts in the North, the futures price may maintain an oscillating pattern [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply pressure is gradually relieved, but the downstream demand is still weak. The market may continue to oscillate [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is abundant, and the demand is at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating [14]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the demand has some resilience. The prices are likely to oscillate [15][16]. - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Adopt a long - position strategy when the price is low [17][18]. - **Container Shipping Index (Europe Line)**: The spot price has risen, but there may be price fluctuations in the future. Pay attention to shipping companies' strategies during the Spring Festival [19]. - **Urea**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the market is strongly oscillating [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short term, the price may oscillate weakly in a range, and a long - position strategy for the 5 - 9 spread can be considered in the long term [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates at the bottom. Consider a long - position strategy for the month - spread in the medium term [24]. - **Styrene**: The supply pressure is difficult to reverse, and the market purchases are mainly for rigid demand [25]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term upward space is limited, and the port inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [45]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is rising, and the index futures are also up. Pay attention to the relationship between the US dollar, precious metals, and domestic policies [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to become steeper [47].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the precious metals market, specifically gold and silver, amidst rising geopolitical tensions and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1] - The geopolitical situation, particularly in Venezuela, has heightened the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven assets [1] Core Insights and Arguments - Gold prices have surged to historical highs, with spot gold exceeding $4500 per ounce for the first time [1] - The significant increase in gold prices is primarily driven by a surge in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), particularly the SPDR Gold Trust, which has seen its holdings grow by over 20% this year [3] - Retail investors, rather than institutional investors, have been the main drivers of capital inflows into gold ETFs, leading to high price volatility due to the liquidity issues associated with retail funds [3] - Silver has experienced an even more remarkable increase of approximately 140% this year, attributed to speculative inflows and supply disruptions following a historic short squeeze in October [3][4] - The global demand for silver has outstripped mining production for five consecutive years, with significant contributions from various sectors including electronics and solar panels [4] Additional Important Insights - The recent surge in silver prices, which recently broke $70 per ounce, is compounded by weak production and tight inventories [4] - Indian buyers have significantly increased their silver purchases, particularly during the Diwali festival, further straining global supply [4] - The relative strength index for silver has risen to around 80, indicating a typical overbought condition similar to that seen before the October correction [6] - The options market reflects a high implied volatility for silver ETFs, suggesting that maintaining the recent price levels will require new bullish catalysts [9] - If implied volatility decreases while spot prices stagnate, traders may face significant losses, leading to potential market corrections [11] Conclusion - The current market dynamics for gold and silver indicate a strong demand driven by geopolitical factors and retail investor activity, but the sustainability of these price levels is uncertain without new catalysts [8][12]

| 代码 | 名标 | | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002731 | 巷件珠宝 | | 5.21 | 35.14亿 | 47.05 | | 002716 | 湖南日银 | 策 | 4.94 | 192亿 | 100.59 | | 601212 | 日銀有色 | 主 | 4.81 | 435 乙 | 111.51 | | 000688 | 国城矿业 | | 4.00 | 326亿 | 131.62 | | 600362 | 江西铜业 | 1 | 3.83 | 1579亿 | 129.92 | | 601168 | 西哥的一小 | 1 | 3.36 | 638亿 | 77.33 | | 603993 | 洛阳钼业 | 1 | 2.83 | 4114亿 | 198.32 | | 601969 | 海南矿业 | 资 | 2.76 | 223亿 | 60.07 | | 000878 | 云南铜业 | 1 | 2.73 | 377亿 | 57.49 | | 000630 | 铜陵有色 | | 2.54 | 759亿 ...

Group 1 - The stock of Sunflower has dropped over 16%, prompting the Shenzhen Stock Exchange to issue a letter of concern, requiring the company to verify and explain the production capacity distribution of Xipu Materials, including the actual conditions of its factories in Zhangzhou and Lanzhou [2][3] - The precious metals sector showed strength at the market's opening, with Hunan Silver rising over 3%, alongside gains in companies like Hengbang Shares, Xiaocheng Technology, and others, following the news that spot silver has surpassed $75 per ounce, setting a new historical high [2][3] - The A-share market opened with mixed results, as the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.06%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.21% [4][5] Group 2 - The central bank announced a reverse repurchase operation of 93 billion yuan for 7-day terms at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan for the day [4] - The main contract for lithium carbonate futures has surpassed the 130,000 yuan mark, with an intraday increase of 8% [4] - Spot gold has risen above $4,530 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, while spot silver has also surpassed $75 per ounce [6]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 圣诞节 COMEX 贵金属休市。沪金收涨 1.07%报 1019.6 元/克，沪银涨 5.50%报 18131 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 24 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.71 吨，持仓量为 1068.27 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.4 吨，当前持仓量为 16446.97 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 15.5%，维持 利率不变的概率为 84.5%。到明年 3 月累计降息 25 个基点 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月26日，贵金属板块高开，湖南白银高开超3%，恒邦股份、晓程科技、招金黄金、湖 南黄金跟涨。 ...

| | 5.95 -1.18 -16.55% | | | | 向日葵 立即 300111 交易 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SZSE CNY 9:25:00 休市 查看L2全景 | | | * O ▲ 思 品 和 ◎ + | | | | 委比 | 97.49% 委差 | 27767 | Wind ESG评级 B | | | 详情 | | 卖九 | 6.18 | 201 | 文生 | 83.64% 120日 | | 71.97% | | 卖四 | 6.15 | 22 | 5日 | -16.43% 250日 | | 68.08% | | | 6.12 | 3 | 20日 | -18.83% 52周高 | | 10.28 | | 卖三 三 | 6.00 | 122 | 60日 | -33.89% 52周低 | | 2.33 | | | 5.98 | 10 | | 2023 2024 | | 2025Q3 | | | 5.95 | 10943 | Ebe | 0.02 0.01 | | 0.00 | | 第三章 | 5.94 | 10048 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market remains active, with major indices continuing to rise, driven by the commercial aerospace sector [1] - The recent upward trend in the A-share market is attributed to three main factors: expectations of overseas liquidity easing, continuous appreciation of the RMB, and anticipation of a spring market rally [1] - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has broken the important 7.0 level for the first time since September 2024, positively impacting the Chinese stock market [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above the five-day moving average, suggesting a bullish short-term outlook [2] - The performance of various sectors shows strength in aerospace, robotics, and wind power equipment, while precious metals and automotive sectors lag behind [2] - The market is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point level, influenced by macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments [2]