新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 贸易战恶化对铝基本面影响极为有限 重要数据 铝 截至2025-10-10，伦铝收盘于2746.0美元/吨，沪铝主力收盘于20980元/吨，华东现货升贴水-50元/吨，中原地区现 货升贴水-80元/吨，佛山地区现货升贴水-115元/吨。 LME铝现货升贴水(0-3)-1.6美元/吨。 供应：截至2025-10-10，电解铝建成产能4523.2万吨，周度环比+0.0万吨，运行产能4445.4万吨，周度环比+1.5万吨， 行业开工率98.28%。 需求：根据钢联数据统计，铝棒周度产量35.94万吨，周度环比变化-0.05万吨，铝板带箔周度产量36.34万吨，周度 环比变化-0.07万吨。根据上海有色数据统计，铝线缆龙头企业开工率64.00%，周度环比变化-3.00%，铝板带龙头 企业开工率68.00%，周度环比变化-1.00%，铝箔龙头企业开工率72.30%，周度环比变化-0.30%，铝型材开工率 53.60%，周度环比变化-1.00%。 库存：截至2025-10-09，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存64.9万吨，周度变化+5.7万吨，铝棒库存13.9万吨，周度 变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fire at Novelis aluminum plant in Oswego, New York, which supplies about 40% of the aluminum sheets used in the U.S. automotive industry, will halt production until early next year, significantly impacting major automakers like Ford [1] Group 1: Importance of Aluminum - Aluminum is referred to as the "universal metal" in manufacturing due to its lightweight and high-strength properties, essential for various applications from cans to aerospace and electric vehicles [3] - The demand for aluminum in electric vehicles is particularly high, as reducing vehicle weight can enhance battery efficiency and extend driving range [5][6] Group 2: Global Aluminum Production - China is the largest producer of aluminum, accounting for nearly 60% of the global output, with a projected production of 71.81 million tons in 2024, while the U.S. only produces 670,000 tons, less than 1% of the global total [6] - The U.S. aluminum industry has declined from producing 4.65 million tons in 1980 to its current levels due to various challenges [6] Group 3: Challenges Facing U.S. Aluminum Industry - The U.S. faces significant challenges, including limited domestic bauxite reserves and high electricity costs, which account for about 50% of aluminum production costs [8] - The electricity cost for U.S. aluminum production is approximately $550 per ton, nearly double that of Canada and China, making it difficult for U.S. producers to compete [8] - Efforts to protect the U.S. aluminum industry through tariffs have led to increased costs for downstream industries, exacerbating the situation [11] Group 4: Recycling and Supply Chain Issues - The U.S. has increased its recycled aluminum production, surpassing primary aluminum output, but still relies on imports to meet demand [11] - The U.S. aluminum industry is caught in a cycle of raw material shortages, high costs, ineffective tariffs, and electricity supply issues [13] Group 5: China's Aluminum Supply Concerns - Despite being the largest producer, China also faces risks due to its limited bauxite reserves, relying heavily on imports, which can be disrupted by geopolitical events [16][18] - The stability of aluminum supply is critical for key industries like automotive and aerospace, prompting China to invest in domestic mining and recycling initiatives [20]

Core Points - The Argentine government has officially announced the temporary suspension of export tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives until December 31, 2025, specifically for countries that impose at least 45% import tariffs on these products [1] - This decision aims to enhance export capacity and industry competitiveness, signaling a shift towards a more open trade policy [1] - This adjustment is part of a series of recent changes in Argentina's trade policy, which included a brief suspension of export taxes on agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, and biodiesel to boost foreign exchange income, although that measure was reversed within a week [1]

股票代码：601600 股票简称：中国铝业 公告编号：临2025-056 中国铝业股份有限公司 2025年半年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ● 每股分配比例 2.分派对象： （1）截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司（以 下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的公司全体A股股东。 （2）公司H股股东的现金红利派发不适用本公告。H股股东红利派发事宜请见公司在香港联交所网站 （www.hkexnews.hk）发布的相关公告。 3.分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本17,155,632,078股为基数，每股派发现金红利人民币0.123元 （含税），共计派发现金红利人民币2,110,142,745.59元（含税）。 A股每股现金红利人民币0.123元（含税） 一、通过分配方案的股东会届次和日期 中国铝业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年6月26日召开的2024年年度股东会审议通过了《关 于提请股东会授权公司董事会决 ...

但这一格局即将改变。花旗分析师预计，全球原铝供应过剩将在2026年快速收窄，2027年起出现约140万吨缺口。Wood Mackenzie预期供应短缺将 从2028年开始，持续约五年。而中国作为全球最大的铝生产和消费国，正接近年产能上限4500万吨。 电力约束成为供应瓶颈 长期被铜等工业金属光芒掩盖的铝，正因一场潜在的供需结构性转变而站上舞台中央。 据花旗分析师预测，全球原铝供应过剩局面将在2026年迅速缩窄，并从2027年开始出现约140万吨的供应缺口，占原铝消费总量的2%。 与此同时，电动汽车、太阳能发电和数据中心等快速增长的行业正推动铝需求激增。据Wood Mackenzie数据，电动汽车是能源转型中铝需求的最 大来源，每辆电动车平均比燃油车多使用约150磅铝材。而铝冶炼的高耗电特性使新建产能面临挑战。 供需格局迎来历史性拐点 市场估值显示铝仍被低估。WisdomTree的铝ETF管理资产不足4000万美元，而其铜产品管理资产超过10亿美元。Alcoa等铝业公司股价仅为未来12 个月预期收益的13倍以下，远低于Glencore等铜业公司近30倍的估值水平。 铝市场正经历根本性转变。过去二十年来，铝价累计 ...

Core Insights - The market basis for alumina futures reflects the difference between spot prices and futures prices, influenced by supply and demand, storage costs, and policy expectations [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Basis Formation - Supply and Demand: Short-term shortages in the spot market, such as increased production of electrolytic aluminum or reduced production of alumina, can raise spot prices and expand positive basis. For instance, the basis for the December 2024 alumina 2501 contract reached 496 CNY/ton due to limited circulation of goods [2] - Costs and Logistics: Transportation bottlenecks for bauxite or rising storage costs can widen the basis. For example, the suspension of bauxite exports from Guinea led to futures prices rising above spot prices, resulting in a negative basis of -329 CNY/ton [2] - Policy and Market Expectations: Environmental production limits and tariff adjustments can cause regional basis fluctuations. Typically, the basis converges as the delivery month approaches, although liquidity risks may weaken this convergence [2] Group 2: Significance of Basis for Trading - Hedging: Dynamic position adjustments are necessary to hedge against basis volatility risks [3] - Arbitrage Opportunities: When the basis deviates from historical averages (e.g., alumina basis rate above 80% of the statistical range), there may be opportunities for futures-spot arbitrage [3] - Price Forecasting: The structure of the basis (e.g., backwardation in distant months) can indicate the market's long-term supply and demand expectations [4]

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum conducted a block trade on October 10, with a transaction volume of 24 million shares and a transaction amount of 285 million yuan, at a price of 11.87 yuan, which is a 0.51% premium over the closing price of the day [2][3] - In the last three months, Tianshan Aluminum has recorded a total of 2 block trades, with a cumulative transaction amount of 682 million yuan [2] - The closing price of Tianshan Aluminum on the day of the trade was 11.81 yuan, reflecting a decline of 2.72%, with a turnover rate of 1.30% and a total transaction amount of 639 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Tianshan Aluminum is 433 million yuan, which has decreased by 151 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 25.90% [3] - Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. was established on November 3, 1997, with a registered capital of 46,518.85415 million yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, but high prices may suppress consumption. Attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77]. - Aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up nature to Shanghai Aluminum and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. It is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Limited domestic supply increase, expected decline in overseas supply, and low social inventory [8]. - **Bearish factors**: Weak alumina prices and increased overseas macro - uncertainties [8]. - **Overseas political situation**: The US federal government's "shutdown" increased global financial market uncertainties. The delay of non - farm data made ADP employment data crucial. The 9 - month ADP employment report showed a decrease of 32,000 people, leading to expectations of Fed rate cuts [9][10][13]. - **Domestic economic situation**: China's economy shows a slow recovery. In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month - on - month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage points. The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays was good, but the film box office declined year - on - year [14][17]. 3.2 Data Analysis - **Bauxite supply**: In 2025, from January to August, domestic bauxite production was 40.861 million tons, up 7.8% year - on - year. However, due to environmental protection and resource grade decline, the actual supply increase is limited. From January to August, imports were 141.75 million tons, up 31.4% year - on - year, with a dependence of 78.4%. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter [20][23]. - **Alumina supply**: In August 2025, China's alumina production was 7.925 million tons, up 7.5% year - on - year. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, with high production and an open import window. New capacity is planned to be put into production later, increasing the surplus pressure [27]. - **Primary aluminum production**: In August 2025, primary aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, down 0.5% year - on - year. In September, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly. The upper limit of electrolytic aluminum capacity is 45 million tons, and the supply increase space is limited. The low proportion of aluminum ingots provides support for aluminum prices [30]. - **Aluminum processing**: In the first week of October, the overall aluminum processing start - up rate decreased to 62.5% month - on - month, showing seasonal characteristics and internal differentiation [33]. - **Aluminum product demand**: In August 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.548 million tons, up 1% month - on - month and down 4.2% year - on - year. From January to August, it was 43.79 million tons, basically flat year - on - year. Demand is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons [36]. - **Inventory situation**: LME aluminum inventory decreased, and SHFE aluminum inventory decreased slightly in the week of September 30. During the National Day holiday, aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated to 634,000 tons as of October 9, an increase of 47,000 tons from September 29 [48][52]. - **Price difference**: On October 9, the domestic spot discount widened, and the LME aluminum premium widened [56]. - **Recycled aluminum**: In August, recycled aluminum alloy production was 614,500 tons, down 1.7% month - on - month and up 8.6% year - on - year. As of September 25, the recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate was 56.6%, up 0.7% week - on - week [60][64]. - **Aluminum alloy import and export**: In August 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy was 71,000 tons, down 16.7% year - on - year; the export was 29,100 tons, up 28.3% year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume will remain low in the fourth quarter [68]. - **Aluminum alloy inventory**: As of October 10, China's aluminum alloy weekly social inventory was 75,700 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the in - plant inventory was 61,500 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from last week [73]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and it is recommended to take a long - position on dips [74]. - Shanghai Aluminum may remain in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in aluminum ingot inventory and macro - sentiment [77].

智通财经APP讯，中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，该公司于2025年10月10日注销8.8万股已回购股份。 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 铝类市场周报 需求提振预期向好，铝类或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：沪铝先升后降，周涨跌幅+1.45%，报20980元/吨。氧化铝震荡偏弱，周涨跌-0.42%，报2856元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，受几内亚气候原因发运减少的影响，国内土矿供给仍将呈现收减态势，土矿报价较为坚挺。 供给方面，氧化铝现货价格虽有走弱，但冶炼厂利润空间尚在，故并未出现大面积减产情况，开工率仍保持较高水平， 国内氧化铝供给量保持稳定。需求方面，电解铝产能由于前期置换、技改项目陆续完成投产，令在运行产能小幅提升， 但由于电解铝产能上限的原因，令其对氧化铝消费提振仅小幅度。整体来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求小 增的局面。 策略建议：氧化铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：铸铝主力合约先涨后跌， ...