Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [5][6][59]. Core Insights - The report highlights a reassessment of pig prices, with expectations for a potential upward adjustment in the second half of the year due to strong current prices and declining breeding costs. This creates opportunities for low-cost pig farming companies to realize profits [5][6]. - The pet food sector remains robust, with significant online sales growth, particularly during the "618" shopping festival, suggesting a positive outlook for leading brands [5][6]. - The chicken farming sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with a noted decline in chick prices during the off-season, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability for the industry [5][6]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of June 15, the average selling price of external three yuan pigs was 14.12 yuan/kg, up 1.5% week-on-week. However, profits for large-scale farms decreased to 68.27 yuan per head, down 53.15 yuan from the previous week [5][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading pig farming companies for performance realization, particularly in light of the current strong pig prices and the slow recovery of production capacity [5][6]. Pet Food - In May 2025, online sales of pet food reached 3.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% and a month-on-month increase of 35%. Cumulatively, sales from January to May totaled 12.26 billion yuan, up 17% year-on-year [5][6]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., which have shown significant growth in sales [5][6]. Chicken Farming - The average selling price of white feather broiler chicks was 2.43 yuan per chick, down 7.6% week-on-week. The price of broiler chickens remained stable at 3.58 yuan per jin, with chicken meat prices showing a downward trend [5][6]. - The report suggests that the supply pressure is easing, but the industry is still expected to operate around the breakeven point, highlighting the need to focus on leading companies for potential excess profits [5][6]. Animal Health - The report notes a recovery in the sales of veterinary vaccines, with a 23.02% year-on-year increase in the number of vaccine batches approved in Q1 2025. This recovery is driven by increased breeding stock and profitability in farming operations [5][6]. - Companies like Huirun Biological and KQ Biological are highlighted for their potential growth in the animal health sector, particularly with new vaccine varieties [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with a weekly increase of 1.62% in the industry index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2][13][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is undergoing weight reduction, with a current average weight of 128.82 kg per pig, and a slight increase in frozen product inventory rate. Despite a downward trend in pig prices, leading companies are expected to achieve good profitability in the first half of the year [3][19][20]. - The poultry farming sector is stabilizing at the bottom of the market, with a notable decrease in the breeding stock of parent chickens due to overseas avian influenza. However, there is potential for price recovery as consumer demand improves [4][31]. - The livestock sector is experiencing a steady state in beef prices, with a slight decrease in milk prices. The report anticipates a potential upward trend in milk prices in the second half of 2025 as supply-side adjustments take effect [5][35]. - The planting industry is showing signs of stabilization, with fluctuations in grain prices due to tariff policies and global weather disruptions. The report suggests that if there is a significant reduction in grain production, the planting industry may see improved conditions [6][40]. - The feed and aquaculture sectors are experiencing stable prices, with slight fluctuations in various fish prices. The report notes that feed prices have stabilized, which may benefit the overall profitability of the sectors [58][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index closed at 2725.63 points, with a weekly increase of 1.62%, outperforming major indices [2][13][14]. 2. Key Data Tracking 2.1 Pig Farming - The average pig price is 14.02 yuan/kg, with a weekly decrease of 0.21%. The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side adjustments in the industry [19][20]. 2.2 Poultry Farming - The average price for white feather chickens is 7.27 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease. The sector is stabilizing, with potential for price recovery as demand improves [29][31]. 2.3 Livestock - The average price for live cattle is 26.71 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease. The report anticipates a potential upward trend in milk prices as supply-side adjustments take effect [5][35]. 2.4 Planting Industry - Domestic corn prices are 2,334.29 yuan/ton, showing a weekly increase. The report suggests that significant reductions in grain production could improve the planting industry's conditions [39][40]. 2.5 Feed & Aquaculture - Feed prices have stabilized, with slight fluctuations in fish prices. The report notes that stable feed prices may benefit overall profitability [58][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs rebounded, with the main contract rising 2.45% weekly. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters. High temperatures suppress the willingness to purchase pork, and consumption has entered a seasonal off - peak, making it difficult to support prices. Although policies and rising feed raw materials boost the sentiment of the futures market, weak demand restricts the increase of spot prices and the basis weakens rapidly, which may limit the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the live pig price will fluctuate, and the strategy suggestion is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price rebounded, and the main contract rose 2.45% weekly [6][9]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply - side: The current slaughter rhythm is normal, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. In the medium - term, supply pressure will increase. Demand - side: High temperatures reduce pork purchasing willingness, the terminal sales slow down, the slaughterhouse operating rate drops continuously, and consumption is in a seasonal off - peak. Overall, policies and rising feed raw materials boost the futures price, but weak demand restricts the spot price increase, and the basis weakens rapidly, which may limit the upside of the futures market. It is expected that the live pig price will fluctuate [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Temporarily wait and see [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price rebounded this week, and the main contract rose 2.45% weekly [7][9]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 13, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 11,126 lots, an increase of 2,144 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 750, an increase of 275 from last week [15]. Spot Market - **Basis**: The basis of the live pig July contract this week was 705 yuan/ton, and the basis of the September contract was 210 yuan/ton [19]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs this week was 14.38 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan/kg from last week and a decrease of 2.04% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 38.28 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.86 yuan/kg from last week and a decrease of 15.69% from last month [26]. - **Pork and Sows' Prices**: As of June 5, the national average price of pork was 25.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of June 24, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.29, a decrease of 0.02 from the previous week, and it was below the break - even point [35]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In April 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous month, an increase of 1.31% year - on - year, and equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in May, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.33% month - on - month and 4.26% year - on - year; the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.03% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the national live pig inventory was 417.31 million, a decrease of 10.12 million from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 8.81 million year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in May, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms was 35.6403 million, an increase of 0.45% month - on - month and 5.75% year - on - year; the inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.4438 million, an increase of 0.82% month - on - month and 8.07% year - on - year [43]. - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 10.5986 million, a decrease of 2.38% month - on - month and an increase of 12.35% year - on - year; the slaughter volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.4896 million, a decrease of 1.48% month - on - month and an increase of 73.46% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary live pigs this week was 123.96 kg, a slight decrease of 0.16 kg from last week [46]. Industry - **Breeding Profits**: As of June 13, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding reported a loss of 210.64 yuan/head, a decrease of 89.84 yuan/head compared to the previous week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was a loss of 2.9 yuan/head, a decrease of 36.72 yuan/head compared to the previous week. The profit of poultry breeding was - 0.55 yuan/head, and the weekly loss decreased by 0.11 yuan/head [51]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to April 2025, China imported 360,000 tons of pork in total, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, but it was at a historically low level [56]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of June 13, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.0 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of June 12, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs in the country was - 0.21 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.16 yuan/kg compared to last week [59]. - **Feed Situation**: As of June 13, the spot price of soybean meal was 2968 yuan/ton, an increase of 27.71 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2405.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.26 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 962.11, an increase of 1.61% from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.36 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg from last week. As of April 2025, the monthly feed production was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.132 million tons [65][69][74]. - **CPI**: As of May 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the decline rate was the same as last month [77]. Downstream - **Slaughter and Consumption**: In the 24th week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 27.22%, a decrease of 1.68 percentage points from last week and 4.45 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of this Thursday, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.34%, an increase of 0.02% from last week. As of April 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.77 million, an increase of 0.46% from the previous month. In April 2025, the national catering revenue was 416.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [80][85]. 4. Live Pig Stocks The report mentions two live pig - related stocks: Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [86].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the positive impact of tax incentives and compliance on the vitality of the private economy in China, highlighting a 3.6% year-on-year growth in sales revenue for the private sector in the first four months of the year [1] - The implementation of the "Tax Payment Credit Management Measures" aims to enhance credit construction in the tax field, promoting compliance among enterprises and supporting high-quality economic development [2] - The number of trustworthy taxpayers in China reached 41.27 million in 2024, an increase of 3.78 million from 2023, with nearly 3.35 million classified as A-level taxpayers, reflecting a steady growth in compliant enterprises [3] Group 2 - In Fujian, the local tax authority introduced 12 measures to promote compliance among private enterprises, enhancing their risk management and compliance awareness [1] - A company in Jiangxi reported that its A-level tax credit status allowed it to secure a low-interest loan of 3 million yuan in 2024, contributing to a total loan of over 40 million yuan since 2018, with financing costs reduced by 18% [2] - Over 83% of surveyed private enterprises have established compliance management systems, indicating a shift towards regulated and sustainable growth in the private sector [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: June 13, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The state reserve policy has stabilized pig prices and boosted confidence, leading to short - term rebounds in futures and spot prices. However, in the medium to long term, pig supply continues to increase, demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose [7]. - Futures contracts are currently at a discount to the spot. The current price increase is seen as a rebound, and in the medium to long term, it is affected by the off - season demand, loose supply - demand, and expected second - fattening sales. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of future reserve policies [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 12th, the main 2509 pig futures contract opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded, closing up. The highest price was 13,770 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,540 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,750 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from the previous day. The total index position increased by 1,217 lots to 166,443 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 12th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.01 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. - **Policy**: On June 9, Huachu Network announced the notice of the central reserve frozen pork purchase and storage auction on June 11, 2025, with a purchase and storage volume of 10,000 tons. The final transaction price of No. 2 - 4 meat on the 11th was 20.3 - 20.8 yuan/kg [7]. - **Demand**: Currently, the price difference between fat and standard pigs is inverted, the pen utilization rate is relatively high, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening replenishment has decreased. With rising temperatures, terminal demand has weakened, and slaughterhouse orders have significantly decreased after the Dragon Boat Festival. On June 12, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 143,900 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads from the previous day and 900 heads from a week ago [7]. - **Supply**: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume in June was 23.629 million heads, a 1.02% increase from the actual slaughter volume in May. The slaughter weight remained high as farmers slaughtered normally and those who previously engaged in second - fattening actively sold their pigs due to the inverted price difference [7]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - In May, the average market sales price of 15KG piglets was 627 yuan/head, a 4.3% month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was 138 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 53 yuan/head; the profit per pig from purchasing piglets was 93 yuan/head, a month - on - month decrease of 26 yuan/head [11]. - In May, the average national slaughter weight was 129.5 kg, a 0.6 kg increase from April, a month - on - month increase of 0.47% [11]. - From February to May, the average proportion of second - fattening sales was 4.3%, 3.7%, 6.2%, and 2.5% respectively. In May, it was 2.5%, a 3.7 percentage - point month - on - month decrease [11]. - As of the end of May, the price of pig compound feed was 3,289 yuan/ton, basically the same as at the end of the previous month and a 2% year - on - year increase [11]. - The expected cost of self - bred and self - raised pigs in the future is 13.09 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.16 yuan/kg and a 4.38% decrease compared to 13.7 yuan/kg year - on - year. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then selling is 15.06 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg and a 5.9% decrease compared to 16 yuan/kg year - on - year [11]. - As of the end of May, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.03 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin [11].

以下文章来源于妙投APP ，作者丁萍 妙投APP . 虎嗅旗下二级市场投研服务品牌，为您提供精选上市公司价值拆解，热门赛道产业链梳理 出品 | 妙投APP 作者 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 近期，生猪养殖板块迎来大涨。截至6月11日，猪肉概念板块 （BK0882） 在近9个交易日内收涨了 6.07%。其中，牧原股份、巨星农牧和神农集团的涨幅分别达到了15.57%、18.64%和27.64%，这背 后的推手无疑是频繁出台的政策利好。 回顾5月29日，发改委召开会议，明确提出要稳产能、稳猪价，并出台了五大措施： （1）不再增加母猪数量； （5）要求相关猪企每月上报数据。 （2）育肥猪的体重要降到120公斤； （3）不鼓励卖二育猪； （4）希望毛猪价格能够稳定； 紧接着，6月9日，华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉轮换收储竞价交易有关事项的通 知，计划收储数量为1万吨。 回顾《 普通人的暖冬，养猪人的"寒冬" 》一文的观点，2025年猪价很悲观，大家要谨慎参与。至于 机会何时出现？妙投认为或许要等一些外部催化，如政策干预或疫病爆发，甚至一个寒冬，都可能会 酝酿出不错的机会。 那么，在这个时刻，政策" ...

作者 | 丁萍 头图 | 视觉中国 近期，生猪养殖板块迎来大涨。截至6月11日，猪肉概念板块（BK0882）在近9个交易日内收涨了6.07%。其中，牧原股份、巨星农牧和神农集团的涨幅分别 达到了15.57%、18.64%和27.64%，这背后的推手无疑是频繁出台的政策利好。 回顾5月29日，发改委召开会议，明确提出要稳产能、稳猪价，并出台了五大措施： 出品 | 妙投APP 紧接着，6月9日，华储网发布关于2025年6月11日中央储备冻猪肉轮换收储竞价交易有关事项的通知，计划收储数量为1万吨。 回顾《普通人的暖冬，养猪人的"寒冬"》一文的观点，2025年猪价很悲观，大家要谨慎参与。至于机会何时出现？妙投认为或许要等一些外部催化，如政策 干预或疫病爆发，甚至一个寒冬，都可能会酝酿出不错的机会。 那么，在这个时刻，政策"出手"是否会推动这场漫长的猪周期迎来反转？ 为何此时"出手"？ 政策之所以要在此刻"出手"，主要是因为生猪产能一直处于供给过剩、猪价持续下行的状态，CPI被严重拖累。 截至6月9日，国内生猪（外三元）价格为13.96元/公斤，今年内下降了1.78元/公斤，距去年的高点下跌了逾7元/公斤。 猪价的持续 ...

当前时点为何看好生猪板块？20250612 摘要 2025 年生猪存栏量与 2023 年相近或更少，预计全年行业均价有望达 到 15 元/公斤，头部企业将受益于此轮猪价上涨，盈利空间巨大。 当前生猪产能调控政策趋严，针对头部企业减母猪、调控育肥猪和降体 重，旨在稳定猪价至 15-16 元/公斤以上，并最终促进 CPI 平稳回升， 同时，养殖成本同比下降，政策调控有助于提升上市公司养殖利润。 2025 年猪价周期与 2023 年高度相似，饲料和兽药疫苗数据波动趋势 也与 2023 年相似，预计全年均价可达 15 元/公斤左右，当前 14 元/公 斤的价格接近底部，未来几个月整体趋势预计上涨。 头部企业养殖成本已降至 12 元/公斤左右，若未来几个月平均价格达到 15-16 元/公斤，将获得丰厚利润，当前政策环境和成本下降对上市公司 提升盈利能力构成利好。 预计 2025 年 7 月猪价开始上涨，6 月处于摸底震荡阶段，因降体重出 栏导致供给下降，需求较差。下半年均价乐观，未来一两个月内猪价可 能趋势性上涨，8-9 月份达到 15.5 元/公斤以上，甚至接近 16 元/公斤。 2025 年养殖企业生产效率和经营管 ...

政策+猪价叠加，重申养殖右侧布局 20250612 摘要 政府通过限产、限种及限二育稳定 CPI 并控制生猪产能，拥有母猪且成 本控制优秀的企业受益，如德康农牧，其"二号农场"模式借鉴欧美经 验，实现成本最优。 生猪价格受供给端和需求端双重影响，去年母猪供给量增加，仔猪腹泻 事件导致短期供给减少，需求端旺季影响较弱，预计三季度猪价波动， 企业现金流充裕或刺激增产，但高价难以维持。 政策调整推动养殖业向专业化方向发展，小规模散户逐渐退出，大型集 团厂与农户合作，借鉴欧美经验，实现最优成本控制，提高养殖效率。 生猪行业链的模式创新是未来重点，成本最优化是关键。德康"二号农 场"模式已验证有效，并被竞争对手模仿。欧美专业化分工模式将是中 国养殖业发展方向。 德康农牧模式获认可，股价已涨至三倍，预计 2025 年出栏量 1,100 万 头，合理市值应为 300 亿，长期有望达 1,000 亿，短期目标 500 亿。 除德康外，牧原和温氏也值得关注。牧原自繁自养模式成本最低，温氏 受益于政策限产及母猪数量优势。饲料板块推荐邦基科技，拓展生猪养 殖业务，长期市值有望超 100 亿。 选择生猪养殖标的应考虑母猪数量、成本和 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Insights - The overall inflation in the US has started to rebound, with May CPI increasing by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while core CPI rose by 2.8% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a potential upward trend in inflation despite core inflation remaining stable [6][7][8] - Energy inflation continues to be negative, with energy prices decreasing by 3.5% year-on-year in May, while food prices increased by 2.9% year-on-year, suggesting a shift in inflation contributions towards core goods [7][8] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to become more pronounced, with less than 30% of companies opting not to pass on costs to consumers, indicating a potential for sustained inflationary pressure [8][9] Group 2: Agriculture and Livestock Industry - In May, the release of large pigs has put pressure on prices, with the average selling price of live pigs at 14.61 yuan/kg, down 1.31% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year, indicating a bearish outlook for pig prices in the short term [12][13] - The structure of pig sales shows an increase in the proportion of large pigs being sold, with the proportion of pigs over 150kg at 4.94%, slightly higher than the same period last year, suggesting a shift in supply dynamics [13] - The average selling price of major listed pig companies decreased in May, with prices ranging from 14.02 to 14.87 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend across the board [15] Group 3: Communication Industry Insights - The launch of the Doubao large model 1.6 has seen a significant increase in token usage, with daily usage exceeding 16.4 trillion tokens, a 137-fold increase since its release, indicating strong demand for AI applications [17][18] - The Doubao model has been upgraded to support multi-modal understanding and has been adopted by major industries, with 80% of mainstream automotive companies integrating the model into their systems [18][19] - The report highlights the importance of the AIDC computing power industry chain, recommending focus on seven key areas including AI chip production and cloud computing platforms, suggesting a robust growth outlook for the sector [19]