然而，锡市的长期供需格局并未发生根本性转变。佤邦等地缘因素导致的供应脆弱性依然存在，新能源 转型带来的长期需求增长逻辑依然坚实。当前市场正处于"强预期"与"弱现实"的校准期。价格的短期调 整，预计短期内锡价延续弱势震荡，正在为认清真实供需矛盾、积蓄长期动能提供空间。对于投资者而 言，在警惕宏观情绪与库存压力的同时，更应关注真正决定长期方向的供应约束与需求结构变化，及即 将公布的非农数据情况，耐心等待布局时机。 （注：本文为原创分析，核心观点基于公开信息及市场推导，以上观点仅供参考，不做为入市依据 ） 长江有色金属网 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 今日午盘后沪锡走势：今日沪锡合约2602大跌，开盘价报356000元/吨，盘中最高报359300元/吨，最低 报343590元/吨，结算价报352830元/吨，收盘报349640元/吨，下跌6510元，跌幅1.83%；沪锡主力月 2602合约成交量400445手，持仓量38794手，较前一日减少5175手。今日现货锡价走势：据长江有色金 属网获悉，1月8日ccmn长江综合市场1#锡价报351400元/吨-354400元/吨，均价报352900元/吨,较前一日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the casting aluminum market is experiencing downward pressure due to geopolitical risks and seasonal demand decline, despite some support from raw material costs [1][2]. Group 2 - The main contract for casting aluminum closed at 22,585 yuan, down 505 yuan or 2.19%, with a trading volume of 19,770 lots, an increase of 211 lots, and an open interest of 21,008 lots, up 390 lots [1]. - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 25,600 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan, while other alloys like A380 and ZL102 also saw similar declines [1]. - The macroeconomic environment shows that geopolitical tensions, particularly actions by the Trump administration, have led to increased market risk aversion, contributing to the decline in aluminum prices [1]. Group 3 - On the supply side, both imported and domestic scrap aluminum supplies are tight, which limits the price decline of casting aluminum and provides cost support [2]. - Demand remains weak as the industry enters a seasonal consumption lull, with alloy plant operating rates declining and automotive sector demand decreasing [2]. - The overall market activity is subdued, with cautious buying from downstream enterprises and limited actual transactions, indicating a general lack of market dynamism [2].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing significant price fluctuations, reflecting the industry's transformation pains, with structural opportunities emerging in the context of increasing demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing sectors [1][10]. Price Fluctuations: Cyclical Adjustments Under Macro Disturbances - Short-term bearish pressures are evident, driven by a rebound in the US dollar, rising social inventory of aluminum nearing 550,000 tons (up 15% year-on-year), and weakened seasonal demand due to the upcoming Chinese New Year and pandemic disruptions, leading to a 10%-15% month-on-month decline in aluminum usage in construction and transportation sectors [1][2]. Industry Resilience Cannot Be Ignored - Cost support remains stable, with domestic alumina prices between 2,655-2,955 yuan/ton and pre-baked anode prices up 25% year-on-year, while the complete cost of electrolytic aluminum has surpassed 19,000 yuan/ton [2]. Structural Opportunities: New Energy Demand Reshaping Industry Logic - The economic viability of aluminum is increasing as the copper-aluminum price ratio rises to 1.8:1, with aluminum substitution in power cables and radiators reaching 30%, and the aluminum usage in a single GW photovoltaic module reaching 2,000 tons [3]. - Emerging sectors are witnessing explosive growth, such as humanoid robots requiring 80 kg of aluminum per unit, driven by Tesla's Optimus mass production plans, and the low-altitude economy pushing aluminum demand in aviation materials, with the market expected to exceed 50 billion yuan by 2026 [4]. Global Supply Chain Restructuring - Capacity transfer to Southeast Asia is anticipated, with an additional 1.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity expected in Vietnam and Indonesia within three years, while Chinese aluminum companies are seizing overseas markets through a "primary aluminum + deep processing" model [5]. - The share of recycled aluminum in domestic production has risen to 25%, with companies like Shunbo Alloy achieving profits of over 2,000 yuan per ton [5]. Market Outlook: A New Cycle of Recovery - Despite short-term pressures, long-term prospects remain positive, with strong support for the Shanghai aluminum main contract at 23,000 yuan/ton, and pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream processing enterprises potentially accelerating the inventory turning point [6]. - Three major trends are reshaping the industry landscape: the high-end upgrade driven by automotive lightweighting, smart production with AI quality inspection systems improving yield rates to 99.8% and reducing energy consumption by 12%, and global expansion with Yun Aluminum's alumina project in Indonesia increasing overseas resource share to 40% [6]. Investment Strategy: Seizing the "Dual-Driving" Main Line - Leading companies with high resource self-sufficiency include Shenhuo Co., with profits exceeding 4,000 yuan per ton and a strategic layout in Yunnan hydropower and Xinjiang coal power, and Zijin Mining, with African bauxite production expected to reach 5 million tons by 2026 [7]. - New energy material leaders such as Dingsheng New Materials, holding a 42% market share in battery aluminum foil, and Hesheng Co., ranking among the top three in CTP battery tray shipments [8]. - Recycled aluminum circular economy targets like Shunbo Alloy, with a capacity utilization rate exceeding 120%, and Huajin New Materials, achieving breakthroughs in recycled aluminum technology with costs 18% lower than primary aluminum [9].

中国铝业1月8日公告，公司董事会当天收到蒋涛的书面辞呈，因工作需要，蒋涛辞去公司执行董事、副 总经理等职务。辞任后，蒋涛不再担任公司及其控股子公司的任何职务。公司董事会同意提名张瑞忠为 公司第九届董事会执行董事候选人，提名郭刚为公司第九届董事会非执行董事候选人，并提交公司股东 会履行选举程序。 ...

Market Overview - On January 8, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing volatility. The metals sector, including gold, silver, and copper, collectively retreated, with the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) declining by 1.89%, marking its first pullback after five consecutive gains. The fund saw a net inflow of over 1.2 billion yuan, totaling more than 4.7 billion yuan in net subscriptions over the past five days [1][6]. Gold Reserves and Central Bank Actions - As of December 31, 2025, China's official gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, with a total annual increase of 860,000 ounces. The central bank has been increasing its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [2]. - Globally, central banks have been accumulating gold, with the U.S. overseas gold reserves exceeding 900 million troy ounces, valued at approximately $3.93 trillion, surpassing the value of foreign-held U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996 [3]. Commodity Trading Trends - According to Zhejiang Merchants Securities, the current macroeconomic environment in developed economies is at a critical risk point, with geopolitical tensions leading to two main trading themes: the replacement of reserve assets and the national security focus on basic and rare metals. Central banks are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, which will support long-term gold price trends [4]. - The demand for strategic metals is expected to rise due to increased military spending and the need for key materials, with policies in the U.S. and European allies aimed at boosting strategic metal reserves by 2025 [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The copper market is facing supply disruptions, with potential strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and political instability affecting the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador. Despite traditional consumption slowing in China, demand from AI and energy storage sectors is anticipated to drive copper consumption growth [5]. - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) includes a diverse range of metals, with a high concentration of copper (34%) and gold (12%), making it a strategic investment option in the context of the ongoing commodity supercycle [7][9]. Performance Metrics - The Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) has shown a cumulative return that leads its peers, with a maximum drawdown lower than that of similar funds. The index's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio stands at 26.27, a 52% decrease compared to five years ago, indicating a favorable valuation relative to its earnings growth [11].

Market Overview - Financial markets are experiencing a significant downturn, with the Asia-Pacific markets showing a notable correction [1] - The Nikkei 225 index closed down by 1.63% [1] A-shares and Hong Kong Market - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are also facing a clear pullback, with the ChiNext index down over 1% and the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.8% and 1.97% respectively [3] US Futures Market - US stock index futures are collectively declining, indicating a negative sentiment in the market [4] Metal Market Performance - The metal market is experiencing widespread declines, with international spot silver dropping over 3% and domestic silver futures down over 6% [6] - International spot gold fell by 0.69%, while domestic gold futures dropped nearly 1% [6] Specific Metal Prices - London gold is priced at 4425.480, down by 0.69%, and London silver at 75.795, down by 3.30% [7] - COMEX gold is at 4428.0, down by 0.77%, and COMEX silver at 75.580, down by 2.62% [7] - In the domestic futures market, polysilicon main contracts hit the limit down, while nickel main contracts fell over 7% and industrial silicon dropped over 4% [6][8] Additional Metal Futures - The main contracts for aluminum and copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange both fell by 3.52% [8] - The main contract for tin decreased by 2.81% [8]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.07% closing at 4082.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.51% to 13959.48 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.82% to 3302.31 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 0.82% to 1455.17 points. Overall, 3730 stocks rose while 1588 stocks fell, with a total trading volume of 28003 billion yuan, a decrease of 539 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, sectors such as defense and military, media, construction decoration, real estate, and building materials led the gains, with increases of 4.18%, 2.00%, 1.76%, 1.60%, and 1.33% respectively. Conversely, non-bank financials, metals, telecommunications, and banking sectors experienced declines of 2.81%, 1.56%, 0.95%, and 0.89% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included large aircraft, satellite internet, commercial aerospace, aircraft carriers, military information technology, and military-civilian integration, among others. In contrast, sectors such as stock trading software, rare metals, and insurance saw a pullback [2].

Market Overview - The Tokyo stock market indices continued to decline on January 8, with the Nikkei 225 index falling by 1.63% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index decreasing by 0.77% [1][2] - The Nikkei index closed down by 844.72 points at 51,117.26 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 27.00 points to 3,484.34 points [2] Sector Performance - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange experienced declines, particularly in non-ferrous metals, electrical products, and information and communication sectors [2] - Conversely, sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electric and gas utilities, and air transportation saw gains [2] Influencing Factors - The decline in the Tokyo stock market was influenced by the overnight drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which negatively impacted semiconductor-related stocks like SoftBank Group and Tokyo Electron [1] - The announcement by China to strengthen export controls on dual-use items to Japan was a significant factor contributing to market pressure [1] - Additionally, China's decision to initiate anti-dumping investigations on imported dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan led to a nearly 4% drop in the stock price of chemical giant Shin-Etsu Chemical [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, energy, non - ferrous metals, and financial options. It provides price data, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for different commodities and financial instruments. For the stock market, it suggests considering non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors for investment [10][14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On January 8, 2026, among domestic chemical products, prices of some products like coking coal, coke, and plastic increased, while others such as natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and PTA decreased. For example, coking coal rose from 1,164.00 to 1,215.00 with a 4.381% increase, and natural rubber dropped from 1,6180.00 to 16,135.00 with a - 0.278% decrease [4]. 3.2 Agriculture - **Sugar**: On January 7, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued its low - level rebound. With supply pressure from Brazil and India's potential over - production, but cost support in China, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate between 5200 - 5400 yuan. A strategy of high - selling and low - buying in this range is recommended [10]. - **Corn**: On January 7, corn futures prices broke through the previous trading range. With supply pressure and demand support coexisting, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can consider buying on dips, with support at 2230 yuan [10]. - **Peanuts**: On January 7, peanut futures prices oscillated narrowly. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [10]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price increase is mainly driven by sentiment and short - term stocking. It is expected to continue rising in the short - term but at a slower pace, and then gradually stabilize. The futures market is oscillating strongly, and the inter - month reverse spread should be held [10]. - **Cotton**: On January 7, cotton futures prices rose significantly. With strengthened supply reduction expectations and improved demand, the market is running strongly, but investors need to beware of short - term corrections, with support at 14800 - 14900 yuan/ton [10]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot market for caustic soda is relatively stable, but the overall supply is in excess. The price is expected to weaken steadily, and the impact of market sentiment changes should be noted [11]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The port trade enterprise quotes for coking coal have risen, but the transaction volume is average. Coke's downward price expectation has decreased. The short - term trend is oscillating strongly [11]. - **Log**: On January 7, log futures prices broke through the previous pressure level. With a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, investors can consider buying on dips after the price correction, with support at 780 [12]. - **Pulp**: On January 7, pulp futures prices showed a high - level decline. With strong supply - side cost support and weak demand, the price is supported by cost but limited by demand. It is recommended to wait and see at the 5600 - yuan pressure level [12]. - **Double - offset Paper**: On January 7, double - offset paper futures prices oscillated downward. The market maintains a weak supply - demand balance. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with support at 4100 yuan and pressure at 4400 yuan [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper and Aluminum**: On January 7, copper prices were boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and supply concerns. Aluminum prices are expected to be supported by policies in the long - term. However, on Wednesday, the prices of copper and aluminum showed a high - level decline, and investors need to beware of macro risks [13][14]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is in excess, and the price rebound is driven by market sentiment. It is not advisable to chase the high price [14]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose at night. The spot market trading improved, and the prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upward trend may slow down [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: On Wednesday, ferroalloys followed the upward trend of coking coal and coke. With the improvement of the market atmosphere, they are expected to be strong in the short - term, and industrial selling hedging can wait and see [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On January 7, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated strongly. With potential supply increase and demand turning points, investors need to beware of high - level corrections and should be cautious when chasing the high price [14][16]. 3.5 Option Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 7, the three major A - share indexes rose slightly, but the stock index futures showed a mixed performance. For investors, trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can sell straddles to short volatility. The stock market may face profit - taking pressure in the short - term [16]. - **Investment Directions**: It is recommended to consider non - silver large finance, non - ferrous metals, and technology growth sectors such as storage chips, commercial aerospace, and AI applications. For ordinary investors, it is advisable to allocate a certain amount of long - term stock index futures contracts or broad - based ETFs, and then choose some industry ETFs or individual stocks to obtain excess returns [17][18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in tin and nickel prices, with Shanghai tin dropping nearly 3% and Shanghai nickel falling over 5% [1] - Recent surges in precious and non-ferrous metals have led to substantial profit-taking in the market, creating strong selling pressure [1] - Both sectors experienced a collective sell-off in the afternoon, with Shanghai nickel leading the decline among non-ferrous metals [1]