Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook (★★★)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Slightly Positive Outlook (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products futures is affected by multiple factors including macro - economic trends, supply - demand dynamics, and international relations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans has increased in positions and risen strongly. The re - inflation trading of commodities has a spill - over effect. The spot market is stable, with tight supply but improved marginal supply from policy auctions. Demand may improve marginally with the approaching festival [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Drought in Argentina and a weak US dollar have led to a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in US soybeans. China has completed a high proportion of soybean purchases for 2 - 3 month shipments. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports which may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - oscillating pattern is expected [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The overall strength of commodities and re - inflation trading have a spill - over effect. Due to multiple positive drivers, they are more favored. The oil - meal ratio has fallen back, and the palm oil has performed more strongly. High - frequency data shows an improvement in palm oil's supply - demand. Indonesian policies and the rise of RIN prices in the US are beneficial for the prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products have generally risen. Domestic coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed crushing, and there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking. Geopolitical factors and US biofuel policies are positive, but imports are expected to be more relaxed after March, limiting the short - term rebound space [6] Corn - Spot prices in Northeast China and North Ports are stable. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have continued to decline, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, there is an acceleration of slaughter. There is a possibility of a second bottom - hitting in pig prices in the medium - to - long term [8] Eggs - The egg futures have continued to be weak. The spot price is stable, but there is a risk of a decline after the festival. The futures price reflects the expected weakening of the spot market, and the improved profit has increased the pressure on the 2026 far - month contracts. However, there is still a basis for egg prices to strengthen in the first half of 2026 [9]

【豆油&棕榈油】 今日商品整体表现偏强,宏观方面大宗商品再通胀交易呈现扩散状态,对豆油棕榈油也有一定的溢出效应,由 于油脂驱动偏多，因此更受到青睐。美豆走强，美元偏弱以及市场担心阿根廷大豆产区温度偏高，豆粕也呈现 反弹状态，油粕比冲高回落，豆棕价差下跌，棕榈油表现更为强势。棕榈油高频数据显示供需面边际转好。另 外印尼方面的种植园国有化政策,利于增强政策的定价权。美豆油方面RIN价格继续上涨,利于美国生物质柴油 行业利润转好，利于支撑美豆油价格。2026年气象模型预计夏季发生厄尔尼诺概率大，总体来看，利于油脂表 现偏强。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c 粕类日报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 【粕类日报】扰动因素增加 粕类继续偏强 研究员：陈界正 om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2026/1/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2933 | 1 2 | 天津 | 380 | 390 | -10 -10 | | 东莞 | 0 5 | 2802 | 2 0 | | 290 | 300 | | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2888 | 7 | | 280 | 290 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | 290 | 300 | -10 | | 南通 | 0 1 | 2252 | 1 6 | | 205 | 233 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal market is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn market is neutral [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, although domestic soybean meal prices are currently running strong in the short - term due to the boost of US soybeans, the inventory of soybean meal and soybeans remains high. With the future release of the supply pressure from the new - season Brazilian soybeans, soybean meal prices are expected to run weakly [2] - In the corn market, with the approach of the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment has gradually started, and the demand for deep - processing and feed enterprises to replenish stocks has increased. However, affected by snowfall, the arrival volume is low, and the corn purchase price has been raised accordingly. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern port is still being consumed, and the price is high. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Futures**: The soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2782 yuan/ton yesterday, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract closed at 2297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.14% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 388, down 16 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 288, down 16 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 298, down 6 from the previous day. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2500 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of RM05 + 203, down 6 from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: On January 27, the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters stated that Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to be 3.23 million tons, lower than last week's estimate of 3.79 million tons; Brazil's soybean meal exports in January are expected to be 1.78 million tons, lower than last week's estimate of 1.82 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Futures**: The corn 2603 contract closed at 2274 yuan/ton yesterday, down 9 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day; the corn starch 2603 contract closed at 2530 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C03 + 66, down 1 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS03 + 100, up 10 from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: As of January 24, Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn planting was 93.6% complete, compared with 90.7% last week, 93.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.8%. The harvest progress was 7.4%, compared with 4.4% last week, 6.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 9.3%. Brazil's 2025/26 second - season corn planting was 5.9% complete, compared with 0.8% last week, 6.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 9.3% [3] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - The soybean meal inventory is being continuously consumed but is still significantly higher than the historical average, and the soybean inventory also remains at a high level. Affected by the boost of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal prices are running strongly in the short - term, but the pressure of the new - season Brazilian soybean harvest still exists. As the supply pressure is gradually released in the future, soybean meal prices are expected to run weakly [2] 3.2.2 Corn - With the approach of the Spring Festival, the downstream replenishment has gradually started. Deep - processing and feed enterprises have a demand for replenishing stocks, and the demand for deep - processing acquisitions has increased. However, affected by snowfall, the arrival volume is low, and the corn purchase price has been raised accordingly. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has increased significantly. The inventory in the northern port has increased slightly, while the domestic trade inventory in the southern port is still being consumed, and the price is high. Feed enterprises are still mainly fulfilling contracts, and the current inventory is still lower than the historical average. Future attention should be paid to spot purchase and sales, imports, and grain auctions [4][5] 3.3 Strategies - The strategy for the soybean meal market is to be cautiously bearish [3] - The strategy for the corn market is to be neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][3] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term pre - holiday stocking supports cotton prices, but the domestic market faces downstream transmission and internal - external price difference pressures, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] - For sugar, short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, with attention on macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [2] - For pulp, despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals improve insufficiently, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [3] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton (+2.57%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,618 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian planting: As of January 24, the 2025/26 cotton planting in Brazil was 60.6% complete, up 24.3 percentage points month - on - month and 14.3 percentage points year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In January, USDA lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern is still loose, and US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, and commercial inventories rose seasonally. Before the Spring Festival, there was active stocking, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventories were high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [1] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5187 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5155 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Indian quota: India announced a February 2026 domestic sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons, up 50,000 tons from January [2] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the first - quarter trade flow is in tight balance, supporting raw sugar prices. In the second quarter, supply will increase. In the long - term, the market expects a decline in the Brazilian sugar - making ratio and a reduction in Thai planting area [2] - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are in the peak - pressing period, and the fourth - quarter import supply pressure remains. The annual syrup import volume has decreased. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, with limited downward space [2] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5374 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.60%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with only individual price drops [3] Market Analysis - Supply: There were many overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance news at the end of 2025, and foreign quotes increased, driving pulp prices to rebound. However, the global wood pulp inventory is still accumulating [3] - Demand: In November, the European port wood pulp inventory decreased month - on - month, but in China, despite a large number of finished - paper production capacity put into operation, the terminal demand was insufficient, and port inventories were at a historical high [3]

投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月28日星期三 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 豆油：周三，豆油主力05合约午后收于8326（日变动68或0.82% ）。日内豆油价格上涨，美国生柴政策预期向好，CBOT豆油价格 走强。棕榈油产地减产降库也带动马棕油盘面走高。国际市场油脂 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入阶段性 | | | | 去库。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气以及上周达沃斯中美会晤后，美政府对美豆出口 | | 豆粕 | | 中国展望乐观，叠加美生柴政策预期，美豆市场人气偏多。但由于国储抛售以及下 | | ★ | 短期震荡偏多 | 游饲料企业前期已有一定备货准备，叠加豆油近期走好后，大豆榨利进一步上行， | | | | 豆粕继续上涨会逐步面临现货套保压力。豆粕偏多对待，但追多谨慎注意仓位及风 | | | | 控。关注阿根廷降雨情况以及美生柴协议内容落地情况。 | | | | 1 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | | 止跌反弹 | 周末美加贸易波动，或影响中加贸易谈判结果，昨日菜粕延续收涨，但有消息中加 | | ★ | | 会晤后已经采购了近 65 万吨加籽，为 2 月至 4 月的远期合约，继续追多操 ...

（孙成震，从业资格号：F03099994；交易咨询资格号：Z0021057） 周三，ICE美棉下跌0.3%，报收63.64美分/磅，郑棉主力合约环比上涨2.43%，报收14940元/吨，主力合 约持仓环比增加35976手至82.26万手，棉花3128B现货价格指数15735元/吨，较前一日上调200元/吨。国 际市场方面，宏观层面仍是主要影响因素。美联储1月议息会议如期按兵不动，美元指数冲高回落，美 棉期价仍震荡为主。国内市场方面，昨日郑棉增仓上行。消息面，1月27日，央视财经有关于棉花价格 上行的相关报道。基本面角度来看，节前纺织企业备货力度有限，当前纺织企业原料库存储备水平处于 中等偏上水平。且随着春节假期临近，纺织企业将陆续开始放假，需求端提振有限。供应端来看，当前 棉花库存水平位于年内高位，进口棉增量较多，供应充裕。综合来看，我们认为当前基本面难以支撑棉 价持续上行，节前仍以偏震荡为主对待，中长期仍值得期待。 免责声明 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，印度食品部宣布2026年 ...

Group 1: General Information - Industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Contracts**: For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the pre - settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3075, the highest price was 3083, the lowest price was 3065, the closing price was 3080, with a rise of 6 and a rise rate of 0.20%. The trading volume was 94,600, the open interest was 445,770, and the open interest change was - 22,460. The soybean meal 2605 contract had a pre - settlement price of 2766, an opening price of 2769, a highest price of 2789, a lowest price of 2765, a closing price of 2782, a rise of 16 and a rise rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 793,254, the open interest was 2,184,028, and the open interest change was 5,766. The soybean meal 2607 contract had a pre - settlement price of 2711, an opening price of 2710, a highest price of 2728, a lowest price of 2707, a closing price of 2726, a rise of 15 and a rise rate of 0.55%. The trading volume was 36,632, the open interest was 451,000, and the open interest change was 6,146 [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts rebounded, with the main contract approaching 1075 cents. The previous rebound was due to the digestion of negative factors. Although the January USDA report raised the end - of - season inventory of US soybeans in the new season, the price was far below the planting cost, so the downside was limited. Also, the weekly export data of US soybeans was good for two consecutive weeks, and there were relatively positive expectations in the biodiesel policy. However, fundamentally, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent supply pressure would always put pressure on the market. If US soybean exports weakened or the weather in Argentina improved, the external market might fall below 1050 cents [6] Operation Suggestions - The domestic soybean meal 05 and subsequent contracts are priced according to the external cost. Since there is a lack of potential positive factors in CBOT, the overall situation is a range - bound oscillation, with a slightly bearish view on rebounds. The risk is that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans fails to meet expectations, it may drive the spot price to rise more than expected, which may have a slight driving effect on the 05 contract [6] Group 3: Industry News - **Brazil**: As of last Thursday, the harvesting progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 4.9% of the planting area. The expected output of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop was raised to 181 million tons from the previous 180.4 million tons. If the weather is favorable later, the global supply of grains and oilseeds will be more abundant. The initial harvesting and planting progress are in line with the seasonal pattern, and the future market focus will shift to the confirmation of unit yield and changes in the weather in the producing areas [9] - **China's Purchase Progress**: As of January 27, the cumulative purchase of the January shipment was 4.704 million tons, with a purchase progress of 100%. The cumulative purchase of the February shipment was 8.858 million tons, with a purchase progress of 93.24%. The cumulative purchase of the March shipment was 11.588 million tons, with a weekly increase of 594,000 tons and a purchase progress of 96.57%. The cumulative purchase of the April shipment was 6.373 million tons, with a weekly increase of 1.249 million tons and a purchase progress of 55.42%. The cumulative purchase of the May shipment was 3.141 million tons, with a weekly increase of 198,000 tons and a purchase progress of 27.31%. The cumulative purchase of the June shipment was 2.384 million tons, with a weekly increase of 330,000 tons and a purchase progress of 21.67%. The cumulative purchase of the July shipment was 726,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 132,000 tons and a purchase progress of 7.41%. The cumulative purchase of the August shipment was 198,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 66,000 tons and a purchase progress of 2.2% [9] - **Argentina**: Recently, the temperature in Argentina soared to nearly 40 degrees Celsius, and the main agricultural areas urgently need rainfall, but significant precipitation is not expected until February. Due to weather concerns, the estimated output of Argentine soybeans was lowered by 2 million tons to 47 million tons. The predicted output of Brazilian soybeans is 179 million tons, higher than the previous prediction of 178 million tons. However, it was emphasized that the Brazilian soybean crop still faces risks, and high - temperature and drought weather may affect the output [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures included are about the spread between soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts, the spread between soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts, the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, the ex - factory price of soybean meal, and the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support level of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to end the sugar - cane crushing season in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, international sugar prices may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as sugar prices fall to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4] - For cotton, in the medium to long term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic outlook, cotton prices still have room to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] - For protein meal, affected by sudden news from Canada, rapeseed meal prices rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly negative, but the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. In the short term, the fundamentals are improving, and protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12] - For oils, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in Malaysian palm oil production in January, oil prices rose significantly yesterday. Recently, the inventories of the three major domestic oils have continued to decline month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback before trying to go long [17] - For eggs, the pre - festival stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations, and the near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - contracts have post - festival attributes and may mainly fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end is affected by the peak of production capacity and has a long - term positive outlook, but after the profit is given too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [20] - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctance to sell due to the high fat - to - standard price difference support the short - term limited decline in the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - festival supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large overall supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be opportunities to sell short after the rebound. Due to limited capacity reduction, the improvement space for the long - term fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [23] 3. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5,187 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of currently operating sugar mills increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3] Strategy - Wait and see for now [4] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded sharply. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,940 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton or 2.57% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [5] - As of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 23, the spinning mill's opening rate was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, with the export forecast remaining unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. From January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [6][7] Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of low - buying before the Spring Festival [8] Protein Meal Market Information - On Wednesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,782 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton or 1.14% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,490 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [10] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. From January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. From January 16 to January 23, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. The January 2025/26 global soybean production forecast was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazil's production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentina's production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume was slightly reduced by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [11] Strategy - Protein meal prices may be bottoming out [12] Oils Market Information - On Wednesday, the oils futures price fluctuated strongly. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,326 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton or 0.82% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,270 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,850 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [14] - Malaysian Prime Minister Carney said that after US President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. From January 1 to 20 in Malaysia, the crude palm oil production decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. From January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia's Deputy Minister of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January US soybean oil consumption forecast was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. In December, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [14][15] Strategy - Wait for a pullback before trying to go long [17] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable with some increases. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.04 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.7 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 3.62 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion slowed down, and the terminal caution increased. It is expected that the national egg price will mostly remain stable in the short term, with a small number of regions having narrow - range adjustments [19] Strategy - Near - month contracts may mainly fluctuate, and pay attention to the pressure after the rebound. For the far - end, pay attention to the selling pressure after over - valuation [20] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.24 yuan to 12.94 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.2 yuan to 12.47 yuan/kg. In the northern regions, there was rain and snow, and with the weekend approaching, the demand increased. The farmers reduced the slaughter at low prices, and the pig price may stabilize, with a slight increase in some areas. In the southern regions, the supply may increase due to accelerated slaughter, the demand is average, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price may continue to decline [22] Strategy - There may still be opportunities to sell short after the rebound. Pay attention to the lower support after the long - term decline [23]