1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for PVC [1] 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to experience a downward trend in the short - term and remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply - side pressure exists due to upcoming new capacity and limited further decline in the operating rate. The demand side is weak as the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and export is restricted by policies and seasons. The high - price spot transactions are difficult, and the inventory pressure is large [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and it is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate is low, and procurement is cautious. The BIS policy in India is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. The social inventory has increased, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although the PVC maintenance is increasing in July, the operating rate is expected to have limited room for further decline, and new capacity is about to be put into production. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract decreased by 1.14% to close at 4934 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22748 hands in open interest to 982527 hands. The lowest price was 4922 yuan/ton, and the highest was 4978 yuan/ton, staying above the 20 - day moving average [2] Basis - On July 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4785 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2509 contract was 4934 yuan/ton. The basis was - 149 yuan/ton, strengthening by 16 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97% due to the maintenance of some devices. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into production in 2025, and about 110,000 tons/year is expected to be put into production in July. On the demand side, from January to June 2025, the real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas all decreased significantly year - on - year. The investment and sales growth rates further declined. The 30 - city commercial housing transaction area decreased by 37.32% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 10, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% to 623,600 tons, 34.15% lower than the same period last year, but still at a relatively high level [4][5]

北京君合（杭州）律师事务所 关于浙江福莱新材料股份有限公司 回购注销部分限制性股票实施情况的 法律意见书 二零二五年七月 北京君合（杭州）律师事务所 关于浙江福莱新材料股份有限公司 回购注销部分限制性股票实施情况的 法律意见书 致：浙江福莱新材料股份有限公司 本法律意见书根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）、 《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）、《上市公司股权激励 管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"）及其他有关法律、法规和规范性文件 的规定和《浙江福莱新材料股份有限公司章程》（以下简称"《公司章程》"） 及《浙江福莱新材料股份有限公司 2021 年限制性股票激励计划》（以下简称 "《2021 年激励计划》"）《浙江福莱新材料股份有限公司 2023 年限制性股票激 励计划》（以下简称"《2023 年激励计划》"）的有关规定而出具。 为出具本法律意见书，本所律师核查了公司提供的有关文件及其复印件，并 基于公司向本所律师作出的如下保证：公司已提供了出具本法律意见书必须的、 真实、完整的原始书面材料、副本材料或口头证言，该等文件不存在任何遗漏或 隐瞒；其所提供的所有文件及所述事实均 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.7-3.15 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 31.32%-53.2% [1] - The company expects a net profit of 2.852-3.302 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring items, with a year-on-year increase of 27.65%-47.79% [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates a net profit of 1.13-1.58 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 9%-53% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28%-1% [1] - The expected net profit after deducting non-recurring items for Q2 2025 is 1.16-1.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -1%-37% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5%-31% [1] - The decline in Q2 2025 performance is attributed to falling oil prices leading to narrowed product price spreads and increased costs from PDH unit maintenance [1] Product Price Spreads - The calculated price spreads for Q2 2025 are 567 USD/ton for ethane-ethylene, 823 RMB/ton for styrene, and 393 RMB/ton for ethylene glycol, with changes of -43 USD/ton, +499 RMB/ton, and +126 RMB/ton respectively [2] - Despite some tariff disruptions on ethane imports, the overall impact is limited, and the supply-demand balance for ethane remains loose, suggesting continued low prices and improved profitability for ethylene production [2] - The decline in oil prices has led to a narrowing of C3 product price spreads, with calculated spreads for propane to propylene, acrylic acid, and butyl acrylate being 68 USD/ton, 2038 RMB/ton, and 2509 RMB/ton respectively, reflecting decreases of -35 USD/ton, -357 RMB/ton, and -718 RMB/ton [2] Project Development - The progress of new material projects has slowed due to Sino-U.S. trade impacts, with planned capacities for 2025 including 40,000 tons of EAA, 160,000 tons of high polymer emulsion, 150,000 tons of SAP, 80,000 tons of neopentyl glycol, and 100,000 tons of refined propylene acid [3] - The company's future growth is primarily dependent on the α-olefin comprehensive utilization high-end new material industrial park project, with the third phase expected to be completed in the second half of 2026 and gradually contribute to performance from 2026 to 2027 [3] - The fourth phase of the project has been delayed due to Sino-U.S. trade issues [3] Investment Analysis - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025 but has lowered the profit predictions for 2026-2027 to 7.7 billion and 9.4 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 9.2 billion and 11.5 billion yuan [3] - The corresponding PE valuations are adjusted to 9X, 8X, and 6X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [3] - The company remains optimistic about the growth potential of the C2 segment and the recovery of the C3 segment, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

上一交易日，PTA现货市场商谈氛围较昨日好转，个别聚酯工厂有递盘，现货基差企稳。7月货主流在 09+8~10商谈成交，个别略低，价格商谈区间在4680~4750附近，夜盘价格偏高端。8月少量在09+8~10 有成交。主流现货基差在09+9。 （7月16日）全国PTA价格一 览表 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 等级:优等品 | 扬子石 | 5070元/ | 市场价 | 江苏省/南通 | 南通众合化工新材料有限公司 | | | 化 | 吨 | | 市 | VIP | | 等级:优等品 | 逸盛大 | 5300元/ | 市场价 | 湖北省 | 武汉市恒久化工有限公司VIP | | | 化 | 吨 | | | | | 等级:优等品 | 逸盛大 | 5000元/ | 市场价 | 山东省 | 济南澳辰化工有限公司 | | | 化 | 吨 | | | | | 等级:优等品 | 逸盛大 | 5000元/ | 市场价 | 山东省/潍坊 | 淄博德合化工有限公司 | | ...

新疆天业(600075.SH)公告称，公司公开发行可转换公司债券募集资金投资项目——年产22.5万吨高性能 树脂原料项目，已由全资子公司新疆天业汇祥新材料有限公司建设实施，并成功打通全流程，顺利产出 高性能树脂原料。但项目全面达产尚需一定时间，且市场变化等存在不确定性，可能存在效益不达预期 的风险。 ...

证券代码：300891 证券简称：惠云钛业 公告编号：2025-050 债券代码：123168 债券简称：惠云转债 广东惠云钛业股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有 虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、2024年限制性股票激励计划已履行的相关审批程序 （二）2024年6月7日至2024年6月17日，公司于内部OA系统上发布了《激 励对象名单》，将公司本次拟首次授予激励对象的姓名及职务予以公示，截至 公示期满，公司监事会未收到任何员工对本次拟首次授予激励对象提出的任何 异议。具体内容详见公司2024年6月18日披露的《监事会关于2024年限制性股票 激励计划首次授予激励对象名单的公示情况说明及核查意见》。 （三）2024年6月19日，公司召开第五届董事会第三次会议和第五届监事会 第三次会议，审议并通过了《关于公司〈2024年限制性股票激励计划（草案修 订稿）〉及其摘要的议案》等相关议案，对《2024年限制性股票激励计划（草 案）》及其摘要的公司层面业绩考核要求进行优化调整，形成了《2024年限制 性股票激励计划（草案修订稿）》《2024年限制性股票激励计划（草案修订稿） ...

Economic Growth - GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year[4] - Nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.9%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%[28] - Contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 52.3%, up from Q1[30] Price and Volume Imbalance - Contribution rate of volume to nominal GDP growth is 132%, while price contribution is -30.6%, indicating a high level of imbalance[4] - Historical data shows that the current volume contribution rate of 132.1% is the highest among the last seven peaks[14] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth rate in June is -0.1%, down from 2.7% in May, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments declining[7] - Consumer spending growth in Q2 is 5.2%, slightly above income growth of 5.1%[32] Employment and Income - Total rural migrant workers is 19.139 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[6] - Average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 is up 3.0%, down from 3.3% in Q1[40] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment growth rate in June is -12.9%, with sales area down 5.5% year-on-year[54] - New housing prices in 70 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 5.2% decline previously[28]

Economic Growth - The GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a reduced difficulty in achieving the annual GDP target[2] - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.94%, with a contribution rate of 132% from volume and -30.6% from price, highlighting a high degree of imbalance in volume-price distribution[2][9] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 52.3% to economic growth in Q2, slightly up from Q1, while capital formation contributed 24.7% and net exports contributed 23%[3][25] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth in June was -0.1%, down from 2.7% in the previous month, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment both declining[4][55] - The consumer spending growth rate in June was 4.8%, down from 6.4%, with notable declines in restaurant and related goods consumption[4][44] - The consumer propensity to spend was 68.6% in Q2, slightly higher than the previous year's 68.5%, indicating a stable consumer sentiment[5][28] Capacity Utilization and Employment - The capacity utilization rate for Q2 was 74.0%, down from 74.9% in the same period last year, with several industries showing declines[3][32] - The total number of rural migrant workers was 19.139 million at the end of Q2, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[3][35] - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% in June, reflecting a steady employment situation[40]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply last week was 75,000 tons, with a 1.35% week-on-week increase; demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% week-on-week growth. The cost support in Xinjiang has weakened during the wet season. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,660 - 8,910 [6]. - For polysilicon, last week's output was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% week-on-week decrease, and the July production schedule is forecasted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase compared to the previous month. Overall demand shows a continuous decline, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 41,755 - 43,185 [9][11]. Summaries by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 75,000 tons, up 1.35% week-on-week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 77,000 tons, up 11.59% week-on-week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, organic silicon inventory is high, and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is high [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygenated 553 in Xinjiang is 3,189 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 15, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 8,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 115 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.18% week-on-week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 12.99%, and major port inventory decreased by 1.58% [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8,660 - 8,910 [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 22,800 tons, down 5.00% week-on-week, and the July production schedule is forecasted to be 106,800 tons, up 5.74% compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11.5 GW, down 3.36% week-on-week, and inventory decreased by 5.67%. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell and component production also show a downward trend [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry is 35,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,450 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On July 15, the price of N-type polysilicon was 44,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 3,380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 276,000 tons, a 1.47% week-on-week increase, at a historically low level [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main position: The main position is net long, with an increase in long positions [11]. - Expectation: Overall demand shows a continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and the 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 41,755 - 43,185 [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of most industrial silicon contracts and spot prices showed an upward trend [17]. - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory all decreased to varying degrees [17]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises in different regions showed different trends [17]. - Cost and Profit: The costs and profits of industrial silicon production in different regions and specifications also showed different trends [17]. Polysilicon - Price: The prices of polysilicon and related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends [19]. - Inventory: The inventory of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [19]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The production and capacity utilization rates of polysilicon and related products showed different trends [19]. - Cost and Profit: The costs and profits of polysilicon production and related products also showed different trends [19].

Group 1 - The ethylene glycol industry is focusing on technological innovation and catalyst breakthroughs as key factors for high-quality development [1] - Experts emphasize the importance of green technology innovation and clean production processes, including carbon capture and utilization [1] - The downstream extension of the ethylene glycol industry chain is significant, with potential for producing various valuable products from dimethyl oxalate [1] Group 2 - The synthesis gas to ethylene glycol process is currently in a phase of "scale expansion and technological deepening," with large-scale facilities becoming mainstream [2] - Proprietary technology developed by Zhongke Yuandong has been applied in several large-scale ethylene glycol plants, ensuring high catalytic activity and extending catalyst lifespan [2] - Hualu Hengsheng has successfully built a 500,000 tons/year ethylene glycol facility using this technology, achieving stable operation and high product quality [2]