策略观点：周期股异动是牛市主升浪的信号 之前产能过剩的周期行业（光伏、钢铁、化工等）近期开始有所表现，信达证券认为这种扩散可能是牛市进入中期主升浪的信号。最近的两次级别较大的 牛市中（2013-2015和2019-2021），在牛市初期（2013-2014年初、2019年-2020年初），周期股均明显跑输市场，不过到了牛市中后期，周期股明显开始 活跃。背后主要原因可能来自估值，牛市初期，股市增量资金较少，涨幅慢，此时能够上涨的板块主要是少部分有产业逻辑有业绩的方向（比如13年的 TMT、19年的半导体和白酒、过去1年的AI和新消费），但进入牛市中后期，居民资金会增多，大部分行业估值均能有不错的抬升。周期股因为在牛市初 期估值几乎没有抬升，所以牛市中期，周期股的估值优势较为突出，一旦有政策催化或基本面改善，股价跑赢指数的概率较高。后续可能有两种演绎方 式：（1）经济复苏偏弱，"反内卷"相关政策对供给影响速度较慢，周期等行业盈利并没有改善，则整体股市可能会演绎类似2014年下半年的牛市，周期 股在牛市中期会有1-2个季度不错的超额收益，但随后会面临波动。（2）"反内卷"政策对供给改善速度较快，并且需求层面的稳增长 ...

每周一景： 云南兰坪澜沧江山谷河流村庄风光 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【宏观】 难征的税——美国关税上半场小结 关税措施：高开低走 。 4 月 7 日以前美国在关税方面不断加码升温，在 4 月 9 日后开始逐渐降温。这导致市场形成 TACO 的认识。 关税收入：增长远不及预期 。 1-5 月海关实际关税税率的增幅 6.5% 远不及理论值 14.5% ，因此关税增收实际上也远不及预期 : 一是中国通过转口、抢运的方式，降低了在美国进口中来自中国高关税产品的比重； 二是对墨西哥、加拿大 25% 的芬太尼关税在实操中几乎没有生效。 三是可能出现产品层面的调整。税率提升越高的产品总体进口的比重下降更多。 关税的经济影响：为何低于预期？ 中国的出口出现量稳价增，后续将温和回落。一方面 , 转口抢运降低了中国出口产品总体收到的税率，降低了关税对出口的负面影响 ; 另一方面 , 来自非美非 转口地的增量订单也是关键，这也保证了在可能的透支效应与转口趋严背景下出口增速回落时的韧性。 关税下半场： 若特朗普有进一步增加关税收入的意愿，考虑到已经宣布的"转口税"和威胁加征加墨关税，正好切中关税实际税率难以提升的要害。则无论是 ...

多位专家对第一财经记者分析，出口交货值在我国工业产值中的占比接近四成。受制于出口等因素影响，下半年工业生产动能或将有所减弱。接下来工业生 产增速或有一个持续放缓过程，但随着稳增长政策持续加力，新动能加快培育，工业平稳增长仍有支撑。 二季度中国经济能实现5.2%的增速，工业发挥了"压舱石"作用。下半年，除钢铁、石化等重点行业将陆续公布新一轮稳增长方案外，工信部还将推进培育各 类未来产业。 国家统计局数据显示，今年上半年，规上工业增加值同比增长6.4%，增速较2024年全年加快0.6个百分点。6月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，比上 月大幅加快1个百分点，远超市场预期。 工信部总工程师谢少锋日前在国新办发布会上表示，下半年将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，具体工作方案将在 近期陆续发布。与此同时，持续培育发展动能。加快发展生物制造、低空产业。推动人形机器人、元宇宙、脑机接口等未来产业创新发展，超前布局新领域 新赛道。 - 176 38 478 r de 1 8 65 8 W - 9 1984 （7月18日，国务院新闻办公室在北京举行新闻发布会，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋 ...

（2025.07.14-07.20） 合规 诚信 专业 稳健 01 全国要闻与数据跟踪 目 02 河南经济与政策跟踪 证券研究报告 分 析 师：徐至 SAC登记编码：S0730525040001 发布日期：2025年7月20日 录 03 债券市场运行跟踪 Contents 04 股票市场运行跟踪 05 券商板块周行情跟踪 n 7月14日，中国人民银行印发《绿色金融支持项目目录（2025年版）》的通知 n 7月14日，中央城市工作会议在北京举行 n 7月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会介绍2025年上半年国民经济运行情况 n 7月16日，国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策落实与部署 n 7月18日，国家发展改革委等部门印发《关于实施鼓励外商投资企业境内再投资若干措施》的通知 n 7月18日，证监会发布《监管规则适用指引——会计类第5号》 n 本周公布主要数据： n 7月14日，中国人民银行发布2025年6月社融数据 n 7月15日，国家统计局发布6月份社零数据 n 7月15日，国家统计局发布6月份工业增加值数据 中国人民银行印发《绿色金融支持项目目录（2025年版）》的通知 n 7月14日，中国人民 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the recent performance of previously oversupplied cyclical industries (such as photovoltaic, steel, and chemicals) may signal the entry of the bull market into its mid-term main upward wave [3][7][19] - In the two major bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021), cyclical stocks significantly underperformed in the early stages but began to show strong performance in the later stages [3][8][10] - The steel sector is highlighted as the most representative cyclical industry due to its limited sub-sectors and high correlation with domestic macroeconomic demand [10][19] Group 2 - The report suggests that the main reason for the cyclical stocks' performance shift is related to valuation rather than earnings changes, as the fundamentals of cyclical stocks varied significantly in the two bull markets [3][13][19] - In the early stages of a bull market, only a few sectors see valuation increases, while in the later stages, most sectors experience valuation uplift, making cyclical stocks' valuation advantages more pronounced [3][13][19] - The report outlines two potential scenarios for the future: one where economic recovery is weak, leading to temporary excess returns for cyclical stocks, and another where rapid supply-side improvements and stable growth policies lead to a longer bullish trend for cyclical stocks [19][23][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes that the current market conditions, characterized by low valuations and active policy support, resemble the early stages of previous bull markets, suggesting a comprehensive bull market is likely [23][28] - The suggested tactical approach includes increasing allocations to sectors with elastic performance, such as non-bank financials, AI applications, and cyclical stocks, which are expected to show elastic performance in the next six months [28][29] - Specific industry allocation recommendations include increasing exposure to non-bank financials, media, and cyclical sectors like chemicals and steel, which may benefit from stable supply policies and potential demand stabilization [29][30]

国：zhanlu @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522110001 日雷 ☎: 010-8092-7780 反内卷成效初现,美国加密货币法案通过 宏观周报（7 月 14 日-20 日） 2025 年 7 月 20 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 ☑: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎: 0755-8345-3719 ☑: lvlei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080002 赵红蕾 ☎：010-8092-7606 网: zhaohonglei_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060005 于金潼 ☎: 186-5320-7096 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 铁伟奥 ☎：136-8324-0373 网: tieweiao_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130525060002 研 ...

Group 1 - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3][4] - Five sectors are expected to benefit from the project: main construction, cement and building materials, civil explosives, foundation treatment, and transportation infrastructure [4] - China Energy Construction Corporation holds over 30% market share in the hydropower construction sector, while Tibet Tianlu is a leading local cement and building materials company [4] Group 2 - The stock prices of companies related to the humanoid robot sector have surged, with Weisheng New Materials achieving an eight-day consecutive rise [5][6] - Utree Technology, a profitable company in the industry, has initiated IPO counseling, attracting significant attention [5][6] - The AI chip and server supply chain is gaining interest, with projections indicating the AI chip market could exceed $400 billion by 2027 [7] Group 3 - The London Metal Exchange saw increases in copper, aluminum, zinc, and tin prices, indicating potential opportunities in the non-ferrous metal sector [7] - Solid-state battery technology is gaining traction, with market focus on oxide routes and dry process equipment-related stocks [8]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to gain momentum with accelerated rotation of market hotspots, as evidenced by the performance of major indices [1][2] - For the week of July 14 to July 18, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.84%, the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 5.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed by 3.44% [2][4] - Among the ten sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, all but the real estate sector saw gains, with healthcare, information technology, and consumer staples leading the way with increases of 9.52%, 4.16%, and 3.92% respectively [2][7] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for the week was HKD 246.725 billion, an increase of HKD 4.213 billion from the previous week [2][13] - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, which is a decrease of HKD 4.899 billion compared to the previous week [2][13] - The price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for the Hang Seng Index as of July 18 were 11.04 and 1.16, respectively, both of which are at the 81% and 82% percentile levels since 2019 [2][18] Group 3 - The report highlights that the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is relatively low compared to global equity markets, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at 4.62%, which is at the 8% percentile since 2010 [2][20] - The report suggests that sectors benefiting from favorable policies, such as stablecoin concept stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI industry chains, and "anti-involution" industries, should be closely monitored [2][37] - The performance of companies exceeding expectations in their mid-year reports is expected to rebound, indicating potential investment opportunities [2][38]

③湘财证券：7月A股市场将呈现小幅震荡上行态势 湘财证券指出， 7月份我国依然处于中美关税90天缓冲期内，我国出口有望保持相对韧性，大环境稳定 有利于市场上行。不过，美联储7月会否降息存在较大不确定，且美国对其他国家对等关税90天暂停期 已过，美国近期在关税方面动作不断，预期将对全球资本市场形成一定负面影响。我们预期7月A股市 场将呈现小幅震荡上行态势，建议重点关注:科技相关领域的突破机会(半导体、元件、游戏等)；长期资 金入市相关的红利板块(银行、保险)；以及消费领域有基本面支撑的板块。 沪指本周累计涨0.69%，深证成指累计涨2.04%，创业板指累计涨3.17%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎 么说： ①中信证券：出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预期线索之一 中信证券指出，A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的是不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够形 成资金共识的板块，中报季后的出海可能是新的方向。从中报预告来看，出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预期 线索之一；从过去几年的经验来看，出海对企业ROE和利润率的抬升作用明显；从未来的趋势来看，一 旦讲通全球收入敞口逻辑，会带来股票端配置的稳定性和估值溢价，这是新兴市场跨入成熟市场的必 ...

Group 1: New Central Enterprise - China Yajiang Group - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has officially commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [2] - China Yajiang Group has been established as the 22nd central enterprise, following China Three Gorges Corporation and preceding State Energy Investment Corporation [2] Group 2: A-Share Merger - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the merger of China Shipbuilding (600150.SH) and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (601989.SH), marking a significant step in the integration of major shipbuilding platforms [3] - Post-merger, the total asset scale of the surviving company will exceed 400 billion yuan, positioning it as the world's largest publicly listed shipbuilding company [4] - Both companies have reported earnings forecasts that significantly exceed market expectations, with China Shipbuilding projecting a 98.25% to 119.49% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025 [4] Group 3: New Energy Vehicle Industry Regulation - The Central Fourth Guidance Group is focusing on addressing irrational competition in the new energy vehicle industry, emphasizing the importance of regulatory measures for high-quality development [5][6] - A joint meeting by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, and State Administration for Market Regulation has been held to further standardize competition in the new energy vehicle sector [6][7] - Key measures include enhancing supervision, establishing long-term mechanisms, and strengthening industry self-discipline to foster a healthy competitive environment [6][7] Group 4: Low-altitude Economy Development - The National Development and Reform Commission has convened a meeting to promote the safe and healthy development of the low-altitude economy, emphasizing the need for tailored approaches based on local conditions [8] - The meeting highlighted the importance of safety in development and the establishment of regulatory frameworks to prevent inefficient and harmful competition in the low-altitude industry [8] Group 5: Key Industries Growth Plans - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to release growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity [9] Group 6: Stablecoin Legislation in the U.S. - President Trump has signed the "Guidance and Establishment of a National Innovation Act for Stablecoins," marking the first formal regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S. [10] Group 7: Stock Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index reached a new historical high, with a slight increase of 0.05%, while major tech stocks showed mixed performance [11] - Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increasing by 0.6% [12] Group 8: Upcoming Events - The 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference is scheduled to take place from July 26 to 28, featuring over 800 global enterprises and a record exhibition area [13] - The first batch of mid-year reports from Shenzhen Stock Exchange companies will be released soon, with several companies set to disclose their financials [14]