交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA6月报：25/26年 度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存1672.1万吨。海关：5月纺织品服装出口 262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口3.45万吨，同比减少86.74%；棉纱进口10万 吨，同比减少14.55%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15201，基差1441（09合约），升水期货； ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend became entangled. The spot market in Xinjiang maintained a high basis, and the warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity, and the expected impact of the policy might be reduced. - Internationally, the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - The operation suggestion was to focus on short - term trading [50]. 3. Summary by Directory Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose 0.15% this week after rising and then falling, while ICE cotton futures weakened with a weekly decline of 1.28% [9]. - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index increased. The 3128 index rose 85 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the 2129 index rose 91 yuan/ton [14]. - **Cotton Import Situation**: In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [16]. - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons, and the industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [25]. - **Downstream Inventory Situation**: In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [30]. - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices increased. The price of OEC10S yarn rose 20 yuan/ton, C32S yarn rose 40 yuan/ton, and JC40S yarn rose 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 191. There were 10,140 warehouse receipts and 266 valid forecasts, totaling 10,406 [38]. - **US Cotton Export Situation**: As of June 26, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 23,700 bales, and the net sales in the next year were 106,600 bales [41][44]. 后市展望 - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated after rising this week, and the market trend was entangled. The basis in Xinjiang remained high, and warehouse receipts flowed out slightly. The trade agreement between Vietnam and the US was negative for Chinese exports. Hail damaged some cotton fields in Xinjiang, but the impact on overall production was limited. The market expected the issuance of quotas, and the price was blocked at 14,000 yuan/ton. It was necessary to wait for policy clarity [50]. - **International Market**: The trade agreement between the US and Vietnam was beneficial for US cotton exports. The actual sown area of US cotton in the new season decreased by only 10% year - on - year and was higher than market expectations. International cotton prices were expected to fluctuate in the short term. - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on short - term trading [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the US cotton planting intention report was bearish as the USDA's estimated cotton planting area in the US for 2025 was higher than market expectations. Domestically, the expected positive outcome of the China - US negotiations at the end of June supported cotton prices. However, from a fundamental perspective, the rapid strengthening of the basis was unfavorable for downstream consumption, the inventory reduction speed slowed down, and import quotas might be issued in the future. Overall, short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be focused on the implementation of the China - US negotiation results [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **International Market Review**: In June, US cotton futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. As of June 30, the closing price of the December contract of US cotton futures was 68.04 cents per pound, up 0.23 cents per pound from the previous month, a rise of 0.34%. The USDA's planting intention report showed that the estimated cotton planting area in the US for 2025 was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market's previous estimate of 9.735 million acres, and the actual planting area in 2024 was 11.183 million acres. As of June 29, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 51%, exceeding the level of the same period last year [9]. - **Domestic Market Review**: In June, Zhengzhou cotton prices rebounded. As of June 30, the closing price of the September contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,740 yuan per ton, up 465 yuan per ton from the previous month, a rise of 3.5%. In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons. As of the end of May in the 2024/25 season (from August to the following July), China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86 million tons. On June 27, the Chinese and US sides further confirmed the details of the framework, and the US would cancel a series of restrictive measures against China [9]. - **Viewpoints and Strategies**: The US cotton planting intention report in June was bearish. Domestically, the expected positive outcome of the China - US negotiations supported cotton prices, but the rapid strengthening of the basis was unfavorable for downstream consumption, and import quotas might be issued. Short - term cotton prices may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the China - US negotiation results [9]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: As of June 30, 2025, the basis was 1,421 yuan per ton, the Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan per ton, the spinning spot profit was - 1,762 yuan per ton, the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread was 245 yuan per ton, the FC index M 1% was 14,021 yuan per ton, and the FC index M sliding - scale duty was 14,637 yuan per ton. The short - term cotton price may continue the rebound trend, and attention should be paid to the China - US negotiation results [10]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided [11] 3.2 Domestic Market Situation - **Cotton Production**: Relevant data on China's cotton processing and inspection quantity and national cotton processing volume are presented in figures [38][39] - **Cotton Imports**: In May 2025, China imported 40,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.21 million tons. As of the end of May in the 2024/25 season, cumulative imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.86 million tons [9][40] - **US Exports to China**: Data on the US's cumulative and weekly export contract volumes to China are provided in figures [42][43] - **Cotton Yarn Imports**: Data on China's monthly and annual cumulative cotton yarn import volumes are presented in figures [44][45] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: Data on the operating rates of spinning and weaving factories are provided in figures [46][47] - **Cotton Sales and Transactions**: Data on the national cotton sales progress and the daily trading volume of the Light Textile City are presented in figures [48] - **Cotton Inventory**: Data on China's weekly commercial cotton inventory and the combined monthly commercial and industrial inventory are presented in figures [49][50] - **Spinning Mill Inventories**: Data on the cotton and yarn inventories of spinning mills are presented in figures [51][52] 3.3 International Market Situation - **CFTC Positions**: Data on CFTC fund and commercial net positions are presented in figures [55][56] - **US Planting Situation**: Data on the proportion of US cotton - planting areas without drought and the cotton good - to - excellent rate are presented in figures [57][58] - **US Production Situation**: Data on the bi - weekly and cumulative cotton processing volumes in the US are presented in figures [59][60] - **US Yield and Planting Area**: Data on the estimated US cotton yield and planting area are presented in figures [61][63] - **US Export Contract Progress**: Data on the US's current - year cumulative and weekly cotton export contract volumes are presented in figures [66][67] - **US Export Shipment Volume**: Data on the US's annual cumulative cotton export shipment volume and progress are presented in figures [68][69] - **US Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on the US cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [70] - **Brazil Yield and Planting Area**: Data on Brazil's cotton planting area and yield are presented in figures [71][72] - **Brazil Export Volume**: Data on Brazil's cotton export volume are presented in figures [74][75] - **Brazil Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on Brazil's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [77] - **India Yield and Planting Area**: Data on India's cotton planting area and yield are presented in figures [79][80] - **India Consumption and Imports/Exports**: Data on India's cotton consumption, import, and export volumes are presented in figures [82][83] - **India Supply and Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio**: Data on India's cotton supply surplus/shortage and inventory - to - consumption ratio are presented in figures [85] 3.4 Spread Trend Review - **China Cotton Price Index and Basis**: Figures show the China cotton price index and the basis trend of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract [27] - **Import Profit**: Figures show the price differences inside and outside the country under 1% tariff and sliding - scale duty [29] - **Zhengzhou Cotton Spread**: Figures show the spreads of Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 and 9 - 1 [31] - **Regional Spread and Spinning Mill Profit**: Figures show the Zhejiang - Xinjiang spread and the spinning mill's spot profit [32] - **US Cotton Spread**: Figures show the spreads of US cotton 12 - 3 and 7 - 12 contracts [34] - **External Market Spread**: Figures show the US - Brazil spread and the difference between FCindexM1% and CotlookA index 1% tariff [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the case that the purchase of new cotton has a relatively limited boost to the market, if there is no obvious improvement in the demand side, cotton prices may weaken; if the demand side performs well, it will form a certain bullish drive for the market [5][50][57] - Considering the high uncertainty of macro - factors this year, with the expiration of the US global tariff extension in July and the Sino - US tariff extension in August, there may be great uncertainties. If the tariff issue eases, it will bring an optimistic impact on the market, and commodity prices may strengthen [5][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first half of the year, cotton prices were mainly affected by macro factors. Due to the lack of obvious changes in the fundamentals, cotton prices oscillated initially. In April, Trump's global tariff increase led to a pessimistic market outlook on the global economy, causing cotton prices to fall to around 12,400. Later, due to the easing of Trump's tariff attitude and better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations in Switzerland, cotton prices rebounded and then entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [4][9] - In the first half of the year, the fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and there were no obvious contradictions. The signing situation was acceptable. Although China's signing volume decreased significantly, the signing volume of other Southeast Asian countries increased significantly. Overall, US cotton prices oscillated within a range [4][9] 3.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply and consumption both decreased. Total supply decreased by 170,000 tons to 2.547 million tons, and total demand decreased by 70,000 tons to 2.563 million tons. Both are at medium levels over the years, and it is expected that there will be no obvious supply - demand contradiction in the global cotton market [9][52] - Currently, the El Niño index indicates neither a La Niña nor an El Niño phenomenon, and the probability of extreme weather in the future is expected to be small [9][52] 3.3 United States - US cotton production is slightly reduced compared to the previous year. According to the latest USDA production and sales forecast, the current US cotton production is expected to be 3.04 million tons. Although the drought situation has improved recently, the abandonment rate may increase later, which will affect US cotton production [14][53] - As of June 22, the cotton planting rate in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 92%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year and 3 percentage points slower than the average of the past five years. The good - to - excellent rate was 47%, 9 percentage points lower than the same period last year and the same as the five - year average [14] - The signing performance of US cotton is poor. As of June 12, the cumulative signing volume of US cotton was 2.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%; the cumulative shipment volume was 2.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3% [15] 3.4 Other Countries - As of June 16, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 3.125 million hectares, 214,000 hectares higher than the same period last year. As of the week of June 22, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 174,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 501%; the cumulative cotton listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [26] - As of the week from June 12 to June 18, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's main cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 60.6 mm, 22.2 mm higher than the normal level and 24 mm higher than the same period last year [26] - As of the week of June 21, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points and 0.9 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The 2024/25 season's Brazilian cotton total production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [29] 3.5 Domestic Market - In the first stage before the new cotton is listed, China's cotton supply may be tight due to the fast de - stocking of commercial inventory and the lowest import volume of cotton in the same period over the years. Although the demand is currently in the off - season, it is expected that Zhengzhou cotton prices will oscillate slightly stronger [32][54] - As of June 20, the cumulative sales volume of 2024 - season cotton was 6.12 million tons, and the sales progress was 91.7% [32] - As of mid - June, China's cotton commercial inventory was 3.12 million tons, and the Xinjiang inventory was 1.97 million tons. The export speed has been fast in recent months, and the commercial inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years [33] - In May 2025, China's cotton import volume was 34,500 tons, a record low in nearly 20 years. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 432,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.6% [33] - In May, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, hats, and knitted textiles in China were 122.5 billion yuan, and the cumulative retail sales from January to May were 613.8 billion yuan, at a high level in the same period over the years. In May, textile and clothing exports were 26.21 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [34] - In the second stage, considering the increase in the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season, the production is expected to be similar to or slightly higher than that in the 2024/25 season. The purchase price of new cotton may not be high, and its boost to the market may be limited. If the demand improves, it will have a bullish impact on cotton prices; otherwise, it will be bearish [47][54][55] 3.6 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Internationally, the supply - demand contradiction in the global cotton market is not obvious in the 2025/26 season. The production of US cotton may be affected by the abandonment rate, and the signing performance is poor. The future trading logic of US cotton will gradually shift to weather factors [52][53][54] - Domestically, before the new cotton is listed, Zhengzhou cotton prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger. After that, if the demand side improves, it will have a bullish impact on cotton prices; otherwise, it will be bearish [54][55] - Strategy recommendations: It is expected that US cotton will mostly oscillate in the future, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short term. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：USDA6月报：25/26年度产量2547.2万吨，消费2563.8万吨，期末库存 1672.1万吨。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消费2570万吨。海关：5月纺织品 服装出口262.1亿美元，同比0.6%。5月份我国棉花进口4万吨，同比减少86.3%；棉纱 进口10万吨，同比减少16.67%。农村部6月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨， 消费740万吨，期末库存823万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14894，基差1429（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - This week, cotton prices showed a volatile trend. Abroad, the weather in US cotton - growing areas has been favorable recently, with increased rainfall alleviating the poor soil moisture in the western regions. As of June 17, the drought - affected area in US cotton - growing areas dropped to 3%, lower than last year. Last week, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 48%, at the average level of previous years. US cotton export net sales reached 358,100 bales last week, a significant increase. The external market is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with US crude oil rebounding after a decline due to geopolitical factors and the US dollar index stabilizing as the Fed maintains the interest rate. In the domestic supply side, the current commercial cotton inventory is continuously being consumed, and cotton imports are scarce. The downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a lackluster cotton price under the situation of weak supply and demand. The new cotton sowing in Xinjiang is completed, and the weather in the growing areas is normal, with good cotton growth. The strategy is that with the mix of bullish and bearish factors, US cotton prices continue to decline. Currently, the new cotton sowing in China is completed, the weather in growing areas is favorable, the commercial inventory is decreasing, and cotton imports are low. Under the weak supply - demand situation, the cotton price remains stable. Waiting for new guidance, the Zhengzhou cotton will continue to move in a volatile manner in the short term [6]. Group 2: Market Performance Review - As of the close on June 20, the ICE US cotton 12 contract closed at 66.76 cents per pound, down 1.14 points from last week's close, with a weekly decline of 1.68%. The CF2509 contract closed at 13,495 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [8]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis US Cotton Sowing and Growth - As of the week of June 15, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 48% (49% the previous week, 54% in the same period last year), the planting rate was 85% (76% the previous week, 89% last year, with a five - year average of 90%), the boll - setting rate was 3% (5% last year, five - year average of 3%), and the budding rate was 19% (12% the previous week, 21% last year, five - year average of 17%) [16]. US Cotton Exports - As of the week of June 12, the net export sales of US 2024/2025 upland cotton were 83,000 bales (60,000 bales the previous week), the net sales of 2025/2026 upland cotton were 275,000 bales (36,000 bales the previous week), and the export shipments were 205,000 bales (236,000 bales the previous week) [21]. Domestic Spinning Mills' Operation - As of June 19, the operating load of mainstream spinning mills was 71.7%, a 0.69% decline from the previous week. Spinning mills have limited new orders. Small and medium - sized spinning mills in the inland areas often operate in staggered shifts, with the operating rate reduced to 50% - 60%. The operation of Xinjiang spinning mills is basically stable, maintaining at 80% - 90% [25]. Domestic Spinning Mills' Inventory - As of the week of June 19, the inventory of mainstream spinning mills in terms of cotton storage days was 28.2 days. As of June 19, the yarn inventory of major spinning mills was 30.5 days, a 1.33% increase from the previous week. Currently, the operating rate of Foshan grey fabric factories is 20% - 30%, and the overall raw material procurement is cautious. The raw material inventory of yarn enterprises has accumulated, with the inventory of some large factories in Xinjiang around 35 - 40 days and that of inland enterprises around 17 - 28 days [28]. Domestic Cotton Inventory - As of June 20, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.9915 million tons, a decrease of 106,500 tons (3.44% decline) from the previous week. Among them, the commercial cotton in Xinjiang was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 87,100 tons (3.95% decline) from the previous week, and the commercial cotton in inland areas was 447,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons (0.22% decline) from the previous week. As of June 19, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased by 4.15% from the previous week, with a total inventory of 424,700 tons, and the inventory continued to decline during the week [30].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Weakening Consumption, Lackluster Rebound of Zhengzhou Cotton - Guoxin Futures Cotton Weekly Report" and was released on June 22, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Domestically, this week Zhengzhou cotton oscillated within a narrow range, and the market trend was indecisive. The basis in Xinjiang continued to strengthen, with a supply shortage in some areas. Consumption pressure remained high, with a decline in the operating rates of textile and weaving enterprises, an accumulation of finished - product inventories, and a lack of new orders. The impact of high - temperature forecasts in southern Xinjiang on cotton growth was expected to be limited. Internationally, in the short term, cotton prices were affected by oil price fluctuations due to the international situation. The war situation would continue to disrupt the market. Fundamentally, the drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Precipitation increased recently, and the drought index in most areas dropped to 0. There were few catalysts for U.S. cotton. China's procurement of U.S. cotton was at a standstill. Overall, there were no major fundamental contradictions, and prices might fluctuate following macro - events [52] Group 4: Cotton Market Analysis Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated within a narrow range this week, with a weekly increase of 0.04%. ICE cotton futures weakened, with a weekly decline of 1.81% [11] Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 59 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 37 yuan/ton [15] Cotton Import Situation - In May, 40,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 220,000 tons [17] Cotton Inventory Situation - In May, the commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315,400 tons. The industrial cotton inventory was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 55,200 tons [26] Downstream Inventory Situation - In May, the yarn inventory was 22.34 days, a year - on - year decrease of 5.19 days. The grey fabric inventory was 32.89 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.94 days [31] Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices remained stable. The prices of OE 10s, Combed 32s, and Combed 40s cotton yarns were the same as last week [34] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 161. There were 10,607 warehouse receipts and 308 valid forecasts, totaling 10,915 [38] U.S. Cotton Export Situation - According to the USDA weekly export sales report, as of June 5, the net sales of U.S. upland cotton for the current market year increased by 60,200 bales, and the net sales for the next market year were 36,100 bales [41] U.S. Weather Situation - The drought index in the main U.S. cotton - producing areas and Texas was at the five - year average level and showed a slight downward trend weekly. Recently, precipitation increased in the main producing areas, and the drought index in most areas except Texas and Arizona dropped to 0 [52] Group 5: Market Outlook - Domestically, the market was in a stalemate, with supply shortages in some areas and high consumption pressure. The impact of high - temperature forecasts on cotton growth needed further monitoring. Internationally, the market was affected by the international situation and war. Fundamentally, U.S. cotton lacked catalysts, and China's procurement was at a standstill. Overall, prices might fluctuate with macro - events [52]

Report Overview - Report title: [Galaxy Research] Investigation Report on Cotton Planting and Inventory in Northern Xinjiang (II) [2] - Report date: June 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [7] Research Background - The cotton planting area will continue to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the report aims to understand the change in Xinjiang's cotton output [3] - Xinjiang's spinning capacity is approaching 30 million spindles and still expanding, and the report wants to know the operation of textile enterprises under the deteriorating international trade environment [3] - With the accelerating出库 speed of Xinjiang cotton, the report intends to find out the real inventory situation due to concerns about tight supply during the off - season before new cotton is on the market [3] Research Route - Urumqi - Wujiaqu - Shihezi - Kuitun - Jinghe [4] Research Findings Spinning Enterprise D - Enterprise situation: It has a capacity of about 100,000 spindles, two processing workshops (self - operated and contract - processing), 30 - 50 employees, mainly produces pure - cotton yarn C32S and C40S, and the processing fee is 4000 - 5000 yuan/ton with different varieties having different fees [6] - Startup situation: Its textile machines in Xinjiang are mostly running, while its inland spinning mills operate during off - peak hours at night as many inland spinning machines are shut down [8] - Inventory: Since it mainly does contract - processing, its cotton and yarn inventories are small [9] - Order situation: Orders are average, and the high impurity in cotton affects yarn quality [9] - Market outlook: The downstream market is average, cotton prices may have small fluctuations. The enthusiasm of ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang to lease factories is low, and some have the idea of selling off, showing less confidence than in previous years [9] Warehouse E - Enterprise situation: It has a storage capacity of about 150,000 tons [10] - Cotton inventory: The incoming volume this year accounts for about 50% of the total capacity. The peak outgoing volume can reach 2000 tons/day, with peak periods after the Spring Festival and in April. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently, and the remaining inventory is small, with most goods owned by large enterprises and little by private enterprises [10] Warehouse F - Enterprise and inventory situation: It has a small storage capacity of 40,000 - 50,000 tons, and the remaining cotton inventory is low. The outgoing speed has slowed down recently. The cotton outgoing progress this year is slightly faster than last year, with 20+ trucks per day during the peak last year and 3 - 4 trucks per day recently [11] Warehouse G - Enterprise and inventory situation: It is a large warehouse with a capacity of 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The incoming volume this year is slightly less, about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. It still has some inventory, and the outgoing speed has slowed down recently after being fast after the Spring Festival and maintaining a basic volume in March and April [12] - Other: The new cotton is growing well, and the output in the new season may not change much compared to this season. Some ginning factories in Northern Xinjiang plan to lease or sell off, and the willingness of enterprises to lease factories is low this year [12]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 棉花：关注外部市场影响 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 CY2509 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 13,495 19,715 | -0.18% -0.28% | 13530 19770 | 0.26% 0.28% | | | ICE美棉12 | 美分/磅 | 67.9 | 0.55% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 252,297 | 17,649 | 794,398 | -6,587 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 6,521 | -1,999 | 19,858 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Cotton futures prices have significantly increased due to improved macroeconomic sentiment and accelerated commercial inventory depletion, leading to expectations of tighter supply before the new cotton harvest [2][3]. Group 1: Cotton Price Trends - On June 9, cotton futures prices surged, with the main contract reaching a three-week high of 13,550 yuan/ton, closing at 13,495 yuan/ton, marking a daily increase of 1.09% [2]. - Since April 9, cotton futures prices have shown a cumulative increase of 6% after initially declining [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Demand Dynamics - As of the end of May, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 3.459 million tons, a decrease of 694,000 tons from the end of April, with monthly reductions exceeding 600,000 tons since March [3]. - Retail sales in April for clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 108.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.2%, indicating strong domestic demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Factors - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase, with the planting area in Xinjiang projected to grow in 2025, supported by favorable climate conditions [4]. - In contrast, U.S. cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 12% in 2025, with the main cotton-producing state, Texas, seeing an 8% reduction [5]. Group 4: Global Cotton Market Outlook - The USDA forecasts a global cotton production increase of 1.76 million tons to 26.36 million tons for the 2024/25 season, while U.S. cotton production is expected to rise by 510,000 tons to 3.14 million tons [6]. - Recent U.S. cotton sales have been sluggish, with cumulative contracts down 6.8% year-on-year as of May 29 [6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that investors should monitor macroeconomic impacts, cotton supply and demand dynamics, and weather conditions, as these factors will significantly influence cotton prices [7]. - Short-term cotton futures prices are expected to fluctuate between 13,000 and 13,800 yuan/ton, with potential upward pressure from low inventory levels [8].