Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The off - tree progress in main production areas in Xinjiang such as Alar and Aksu is around 60 - 80%. Affected by the decline in spot prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants in Xinjiang has weakened. Considering the increase in supply, the jujube price may still run weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - season acquisition progress in the production areas [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujube is 9,270 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the main contract position is 142,780 lots, down 399 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 6,665 lots, up 3,996 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 0, unchanged [2] 2. Spot Market - The prices of Kashgar jujube bulk goods, Hebei first - grade gray jujube, Alar jujube bulk goods, Aksu jujube bulk goods, Henan first - grade gray jujube, Henan jujube premium grade, Hebei jujube premium grade, Guangdong jujube premium grade, and Guangdong jujube first - grade are 7.15 yuan/kg (down 0.2 yuan), 4.45 yuan/jin (unchanged), 6.25 yuan/kg (unchanged), 6.05 yuan/kg (unchanged), 4.5 yuan/jin (unchanged), 10 yuan/kg (unchanged), 9.79 yuan/kg (up 0.01 yuan), 11.3 yuan/kg (down 0.2 yuan), and 10.2 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan) respectively [2] 3. Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, up 3.187 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, down 41,000 hectares [2] 4. Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,840 tons this week, up 299 tons from last week, with a month - on - month increase of 3.31% and a year - on - year increase of 141.47%. The monthly jujube export volume is 2,283,671 kg, down 81,222 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume is 23,548,402 kg, up 2,283,671 kg [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of Hao Xiang Ni's jujubes is - 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative quarterly year - on - year jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, down 34.59 percentage points [2] 6. Industry News - In Hebei Cuierzhuang Market, 10 trucks of jujubes arrived. The purchase enthusiasm of downstream customers is average, and the price of new - season finished products continues to decline. In Guangdong Ruyifang Market, 6 trucks of jujubes arrived, the price is weakly stable, and the purchase enthusiasm of downstream customers is not high [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: November 17, 2025 - Analysts: Liang Weichao, Cui Chao [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall production heat has declined, with decreases in the capacity utilization rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire capacity utilization rates remained relatively stable [2][31]. - The demand side shows a decline in commercial housing transaction area, an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio, a decrease in land supply area, and a decline in the residential land transaction premium rate. Movie box office, automobile retail, and wholesale volumes have also decreased. However, the BDI index has risen slightly [2][3]. - Prices have improved marginally compared to the previous week. Crude oil and copper prices have rebounded, while coking coal prices have dropped significantly. Agricultural product prices continue their seasonal upward trend [2][4]. - In terms of shipping prices, the SCFI has declined for two consecutive weeks, while the BDI has increased slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [2][31]. Section Summaries Production - Steel: Coke oven capacity utilization decreased by 0.74 pct, blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.32 pct, and rebar production decreased by 8.54 tons [2][10]. - Petroleum Asphalt: The operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct [2][10]. - Chemicals: The PX operating rate remained flat, while the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.77 pct [2][10]. - Automobile Tires: The all-steel tire operating rate decreased by 0.96 pct, and the semi-steel tire operating rate increased by 0.01 pct [2][11]. Demand - Real Estate: Commercial housing transaction area decreased, inventory-to-sales ratio increased, land supply area decreased, and residential land transaction premium rate declined [3][14]. - Movie Box Office: Decreased by 3 million yuan compared to the previous week [3][14]. - Automobile: Daily retail sales decreased by 109,000 vehicles, and daily wholesale sales decreased by 158,000 vehicles [3][16]. - Shipping Freight: The SCFI index decreased by 2.92%, the CCFI index increased by 3.39%, and the BDI index increased by 1% [3][19]. Prices - Energy: Brent crude oil price increased by 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel, while coking coal futures price decreased by 6.06% to 1,201 yuan per ton [4][21]. - Metals: LME copper, aluminum, and zinc futures prices changed by +1.41%, -0.12%, and -1.70% respectively, and domestic rebar futures price increased by 0.36% [4][22]. - Agricultural Products: The overall price continued to rise, with the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index increasing by 0.20%. Pork, egg, vegetable, and fruit prices changed by -0.93%, +2.31%, -1.04%, and +0.85% respectively compared to the previous week [4][24]. Logistics - Subway Passenger Volume: Beijing's subway passenger volume decreased slightly, while Shanghai's increased slightly [27]. - Flight Operations: Domestic flight operations increased, while international flight operations continued to decrease [29]. - Urban Traffic: The peak congestion index in first-tier cities declined at an accelerating rate [29]. Summary - The production heat continued to decline, with decreases in the operating rates of coke ovens, blast furnaces, asphalt, PTA, and all-steel tires, as well as a reduction in rebar production. PX and semi-steel tire operating rates remained relatively stable [31]. - The commercial housing transaction area declined, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. Land supply area decreased marginally, with a expected peak in land supply at the end of the month [31]. - Prices improved marginally compared to the previous week, with crude oil and copper prices rebounding, coking coal prices dropping significantly, and agricultural product prices continuing their seasonal upward trend [31]. - Shipping prices saw the SCFI decline for two consecutive weeks and the BDI increase slightly. Short-term focus should be on the implementation of incremental policies on the consumption and investment fronts and the recovery of the real estate market [31].

Core Viewpoint - The USDA's November supply and demand report for U.S. soybeans did not exceed market expectations, leading to a decline in soybean prices after the report's release [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Production and Exports - The USDA adjusted the 2024/2025 soybean production forecast from 4.366 billion bushels to 4.374 billion bushels, with a slight decrease in yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre [2]. - The export forecast for the 2025/2026 season was reduced from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, reflecting a challenging export environment due to trade tensions and pricing issues compared to Brazilian soybeans [2][5]. Group 2: South American Soybean Production - Brazil's old crop production was revised upward from 169 million tons to 171.5 million tons, with exports also increased from 102.1 million tons to 103.14 million tons [3]. - Argentina's old crop production was adjusted from 50.9 million tons to 51.11 million tons, with exports increased from 7.3 million tons to 7.87 million tons [3]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Outlook - The total global soybean supply for the 2025/2026 season is projected at 731.5 million tons, up from 721.4 million tons the previous year, while total demand is expected to reach 609.51 million tons, compared to 598.06 million tons last year [4]. - The global soybean stock-to-use ratio is estimated at 20.01%, slightly down from 20.62% the previous year, indicating a still ample supply despite U.S. production adjustments [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Short-term export performance for U.S. soybeans is critical, with the potential for the revised export figure of 1.635 billion bushels to be unmet due to competitive pricing from Brazil [5]. - Domestic soybean processing remains high, but the market is experiencing a near-term strong and long-term weak trend in soybean meal prices, reflecting ongoing supply dynamics [5]. Group 5: Weather and Long-term Production Factors - The current planting conditions in South America are slightly delayed, but overall production levels are expected to remain robust, with weather patterns needing to be monitored closely [6][7]. - Historical data suggests that La Niña events have negatively impacted Argentine soybean yields, with an average reduction of 0.24 tons per hectare during such events [7].

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market prices increased by 1.6% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 5.61 yuan per kilogram, rising by 7.1%, with cauliflower, spinach, and leeks increasing by 17.5%, 17.1%, and 15.5% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for meat showed slight increases, with pork at 18.70 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.2%, while lamb and beef rose by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw minor increases, with watermelon, grapes, and bananas rising by 2.0%, 1.2%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with rapeseed oil and flour increasing by 0.2%, while rice, soybean oil, and peanut oil decreased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with eggs increasing by 0.1% and broiler chickens decreasing by 0.2% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly declined, with carp, crucian carp, and grass carp decreasing by 2.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with copper, zinc, and aluminum increasing by 2.7%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were predominantly up, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 1.8% and 0.1%, while methanol and polypropylene decreased by 0.6% and 0.1% [2] - Steel prices showed slight increases, with rebar, high-speed wire, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3336 yuan, 3531 yuan, and 3696 yuan per ton, rising by 0.8%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced minor fluctuations, with natural rubber increasing by 1.1% and synthetic rubber decreasing by 1.6% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea increasing by 0.1% and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with smokeless lump coal and coking coal priced at 1161 yuan and 1053 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6% and 0.3%, while thermal coal decreased by 0.3% to 768 yuan per ton [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices slightly declined, with 95-octane gasoline, 92-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel decreasing by 2.3%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively [2]

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products increased by 0.4% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables was 5.69 yuan per kilogram, rising by 1.4%, with notable increases in prices of chives (14.8%), cabbage (8.4%), and asparagus lettuce (5.3%) [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with watermelon, grapes, and apples rising by 3.5%, 2.8%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with large hairtail, large yellow croaker, and silver carp rising by 0.8%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices increased, with broiler chicken and eggs rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with peanut oil rising by 0.1%, while rice and soybean oil decreased by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Meat wholesale prices experienced minor fluctuations, with pork priced at 18.60 yuan per kilogram, decreasing by 0.5%, while beef and lamb increased by 0.1% [1] Production Materials Market - Coal prices saw a slight increase, with thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite rising to 779 yuan, 1058 yuan, and 1164 yuan per ton, increasing by 1.4%, 0.5%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices predominantly increased, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 1.5% and 0.6%, while methanol and polypropylene decreased by 0.7% and 0.3% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed slight fluctuations, with copper decreasing by 1.7%, while zinc and aluminum increased by 0.9% and 0.7% respectively [2] - Refined oil wholesale prices remained stable with slight declines, as 0 diesel remained unchanged, while 95 and 92 gasoline decreased by 0.3% [2] - Fertilizer prices slightly decreased, with urea dropping by 0.4%, while compound fertilizers remained stable [2] - Steel prices experienced a slight decline, with hot-rolled strip steel, rebar, and high-speed wire rod priced at 3490 yuan, 3313 yuan, and 3513 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.8%, 0.7%, and 0.5% respectively [2] - Rubber prices saw a slight decrease, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber falling by 2.5% and 1.5% respectively [2]

据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚11月1-15日棕榈油出口量为334295吨，较上月同期出 口的606292吨减少44.9%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

据马来西亚独立检验机构AmSpec，马来西亚11月1-15日棕榈油出口量为702692吨，较上月同期出口的 781006吨减少10%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玉米周报】 卖压后置，短期反弹 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-17 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心：黄向岚 从业资格证号：F03110419 投资咨询证号：Z0021658 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 行情回顾：基差震荡 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玉米:卖压后置，短期反弹 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | （1）东北产地后期仍面临集中上量压力，建议关注12--1月的产地卖压；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，播种面积稳中略减，单产表现良好，整体维持 丰产预期；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，进口谷物供应缩量。 | | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025年9月，全国工业饲料产量3036万吨，环比增长3.4%，同比增长5.0%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为33.6%， 同比下降2.4个百分点。（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，产能去化尚不明显，支 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Meal and Oil Weekly Report - Date: November 17, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - For soybean meal, the loss of crushing profit supports its strong operation. The US soybean supply - demand tightens, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate widely with the US soybean, but its price is expected to be slightly stronger due to profit losses and the de - stocking cycle [6][7]. - For oils, the reports (USDA11 and MPOB10) have a neutral - bearish impact, and the upward rebound of futures prices is limited. In the long - term, the market should focus on potential positive factors such as biodiesel policies and weather conditions [81][82]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Period and Spot Market - As of November 14, the East China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3092 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton weekly; the basis was 01 - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Before the release of the US soybean supply - demand report, the US soybean price rose sharply but then fell back due to lower - than - expected yield cuts. Domestic soybean meal followed the cost increase, but the spot supply pressure continued, and the basis weakened [7][9]. b. Supply - The USDA November report showed that the US soybean price dropped to 53 cents/bushel, with the yield higher than expected and the ending stocks reduced to 290 million bushels. As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 58.4%. In China, the November soybean arrival is normal, but the 12 - January purchases are slow due to profit losses, with a strong de - stocking expectation [7]. c. Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, with high livestock and poultry inventories, supporting a feed demand increase of over 7%. The soybean meal addition ratio increased, and the fourth - quarter demand is expected to increase by over 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory increased to 761.95 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory decreased to 99.86 million tons [7]. d. Cost - The 25/26 US soybean planting cost dropped to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 100 cents/bushel. Based on certain calculations, the domestic soybean meal cost is 3070 yuan/ton [7]. e. Market Summary and Strategy - The US soybean is expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger. The strategy suggests range - bound operations for the M2601 contract and for spot enterprises to sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [7]. 2. Oils a. Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 14, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil was the weakest due to the MPOB report and poor export data, while rapeseed oil was the strongest due to supply concerns [82][83]. b. Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both production and demand, with the ending stocks rising to 2.46 million tons. The SPPOMA data indicated a 2.16% decline in production from November 1 - 10. However, exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5 - 12.3%. In China, the 10 - November palm oil purchases are similar to 2024, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [82]. c. Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - bearish impact, with a reduction in both inventory and export. The US soybean futures are expected to be under pressure, and the domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, limiting the de - stocking speed [82]. d. Rapeseed Oil - Due to concerns about the continued tight supply of rapeseed before the arrival of Australian rapeseed in late November and the Canadian biodiesel policy, the domestic rapeseed oil is in a slow de - stocking process. However, considering the potential improvement in China - Canada relations, the upward space for rapeseed oil is limited [82]. e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the upward rebound of domestic oils is limited. The strategy suggests not chasing the rise and taking a long - on - dips approach for the 01 contracts. For arbitrage, pay attention to the long - 1 - short - 5 spread for rapeseed oil and the short - 1 - long - 5 spread for palm oil [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The corn market is expected to trade in a range, with the C2601 contract oscillating between 2000 and 2300 yuan/ton. The cost support at around 2000 yuan/ton is strong, and there is rigid demand for corn. However, the traditional selling pressure in the fourth quarter and the bumper harvest of new - season corn limit the upside potential of prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Corn Supply - Corn spot and futures prices are strong, and the national corn selling progress is 24%, with a 2% week - on - week increase but a slowdown in growth rate. North China's selling progress is 23%, and Northeast China's is 19%, both relatively fast year - on - year. However, the progress in each province has slowed down to some extent. The price increase is due to factors such as price hikes by state - owned grain depots and traders, but there are issues with export ports, and downstream enterprises' willingness to build inventories at high prices is average [10]. Corn Import - Corn import volume has significantly decreased. In September 2025, the import volume of ordinary corn was 60,000 tons, an 80.65% year - on - year decrease. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 890,000 tons, a 92.92% decrease compared to the same period last year. The USDA estimates that China's corn import volume in the 2025/26 season will be 8 million tons, 2 million tons less than the previous forecast [17][18]. Substitutes - The price difference between corn and wheat is out of the substitutable range, and the substitution pressure of imported substitutes has increased. In September 2025, the import volume of barley was 1229300 tons, a 30.86% year - on - year increase, and the import volume of sorghum was 674600 tons, a 30.53% year - on - year decrease [21][23]. Demand Feed and Livestock Farming - The feed demand in the livestock farming industry is rigid, but the farming profit is poor. In October 2025, the national industrial feed output was 29 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed is 88.0%, 2.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Self - breeding and self - raising pig farming, broiler farming, and egg - laying hen farming are all in a loss state [33][34]. Deep - processing - The production profit of deep - processing has deteriorated again, and the consumption of alcohol is relatively high. The operating rate of major corn starch enterprises has increased, with Shandong at around 78% and Heilongjiang at around 92%. The production of corn starch has increased to 328,400 tons, and the downstream pick - up volume has remained stable at 383,400 tons. The consumption of corn by alcohol enterprises has slightly decreased to about 420,000 tons [52]. Inventory - Channels and downstream inventories are still low, while starch inventories are significantly high. As of November 7, the inventory of the four northern ports is about 1.07 million tons, the inventory of feed enterprises has stopped falling and stabilized at about 20 days of available inventory, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is about 2.74 million tons. The starch inventory of major starch enterprises is about 1.13 million tons, a record high in the same period in the past eight years [69][70][71]. Basis and Spread - The spreads between different corn contracts (9 - 1, 1 - 5, 5 - 9), starch contracts, and the spread between corn and starch contracts are provided, showing different price differences at different times [129][131]. Warehouse Receipt Quantity - On November 13, 2025, the number of corn warehouse receipts was 222,298 hands, and the number of corn starch warehouse receipts was 25,000 hands [133].