2025 年 7 月 29 日 原油：多单持有，寻求突破 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI9 原油期货收涨 1.55 美元/桶，涨幅 2.38%，报 66.71 美元/桶；布伦特 9 月原油期货收涨 1.60 美元/桶，涨幅 2.34%，报 70.04 美元/桶；SC2509 原油期货收涨 8.90 元/桶，涨幅 1.80%，报 504.50 元/桶。 8. 市场消息：欧佩克+联合部长级监督委员会（JMMC）重申完全遵守配额的重要性。将于 10 月 1 日举行下一次 JMMC 会议。 1. 美国高级行政官员：特朗普建议欧盟在其任期内购买 1 万亿美元的美国能源，欧盟最终决定以 购买 7500 亿美元达成协议。 2. 也门胡塞武装：我们将针对任何与以色列港口有业务往来的企业所属船只，无论其国籍如何。 3. 金十数据 7 月 28 日讯，当地时间 27 日，在与美国总统特朗普宣布欧盟美国达成重大贸易协议 后，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩对外解释其在对美贸易谈判中的部分决定。冯德莱恩 ...

Group 1 - The NEFTEGAZ exhibition is one of the most influential oil, gas, and petrochemical equipment exhibitions in Russia and the Far East, showcasing the latest equipment and innovative technologies in the oil and gas sector [3][4][6] - The exhibition has been supported by the Russian Ministry of Energy since 2016 and is recognized as a significant event for promoting the development and innovation in the fuel and energy sector [4][6] - The last NEFTEGAZ exhibition attracted 779 exhibitors from over 40 countries, with a net exhibition area of 41,631 square meters and 23,500 professional visitors [4][6] Group 2 - The NEFTEGAZ exhibition is certified by UFI and RUEF, highlighting its importance and credibility in the industry [4] - The exhibition serves as a networking hub for manufacturers and consumers, providing opportunities to discover new products and trends in the oil and gas industry [3][4] - The Russian oil industry plays a crucial role in the country's economic development, with approximately 90% of GDP growth driven by energy exports [6] Group 3 - The exhibition features a wide range of equipment and services, including drilling, welding, oil tank equipment, compressors, and various chemical machinery [8] - It also includes instruments and technical services related to surveying, refining, quality control, and industrial safety [8]

Core Viewpoint - Saudi Arabia is experiencing a significant economic transformation driven by the "Vision 2030" initiative, which aims to diversify its economy away from oil dependency and enhance its non-oil sectors, leading to increased investment opportunities and regional influence [1]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Situation and Regulation - Saudi Arabia's economy has shown increased vitality, with non-oil economic contributions rising to over 70%, primarily due to private sector expansion and emerging industries [2][7]. - The country is transitioning from an export-driven economy to one driven by domestic demand, with investment and consumption playing larger roles [2][20]. - The unemployment rate has dropped to a historical low, supported by a young population, rising female employment, and a high labor participation rate among expatriates [2][33]. Group 2: Regional Influence and Geopolitical Dynamics - Saudi Arabia plays a dual role as an economic engine and stabilizer in the Middle East, leveraging its strategic location and resource advantages to enhance regional cooperation and influence [3][77]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting towards a multipolar world, providing opportunities for deeper cooperation between China and Saudi Arabia, particularly in infrastructure and energy sectors [4][5]. Group 3: Industry Development and Investment Trends - The manufacturing sector and high-tech industries in Saudi Arabia are accelerating under the "Vision 2030" framework, with significant progress in digital economy, green energy, and tourism [5][12]. - Foreign direct investment (FDI) is increasingly concentrated in manufacturing, construction, and services, indicating a growing confidence in the Saudi market [5][13]. - The Public Investment Fund (PIF) is evolving into a key driver of economic transformation, focusing on local investments and infrastructure projects [70][71]. Group 4: Trade and Economic Structure - Saudi Arabia's trade surplus remains robust, primarily driven by energy exports, although non-oil exports are gradually increasing [45][46]. - The country is reducing its reliance on oil exports, with oil accounting for 77.3% of total exports in 2023, down from 87.1% in 2011 [46][47]. - The import structure is shifting towards machinery and transport equipment, reflecting ongoing industrialization efforts [45][46]. Group 5: Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Saudi Arabia's fiscal policy is undergoing reforms to enhance efficiency and sustainability, with a focus on reducing non-essential expenditures and increasing non-oil revenues [57][62]. - The monetary policy remains closely tied to the US dollar, with a stable exchange rate regime that limits policy flexibility [66][67]. - The PIF's restructuring and privatization initiatives are aimed at improving capital allocation and enhancing the sustainability of fiscal revenues [70][72].

乌克兰国家石油天然气公司表示，已与阿塞拜疆国家石油公司签署首份协议，通过跨巴尔干管道进口天 然气。 ...

证券研究报告 海外策略周报：关注贸易协议谈判进程 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001、BOT313 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001、BWH863 郝博韬投资咨询资格编号：S1060521110001 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025年7月28日 1 ※ 核心观点 2 • 海外方面，本周海外市场风险偏好抬升，权益资产多数上涨。美国经济维持韧性，贸易谈判推进，市场风险偏好提升。全 球主要股指多数收涨。其中，MSCI全球股指上涨1.43%，道指、标普500、纳指分别上涨1.26%、1.46%、1.02%。10年 期美债收益率小幅回落4bps，美元指数下跌0.80%，COMEX黄金、ICE布油同步下跌0.51%、2.35%。港股方面，国内政 策催化集中落地，恒生指数继续上涨。国内方面，"反内卷"政策改善市场盈利预期；雅鲁藏布江水电站开工、海南自贸 港封关时间确定，带动相关产业链走强，国际投资者对港股配置意愿增强。恒生指数上涨2.27%，原材料、能源等事件催 化相关行业涨幅最高。 • 海外宏观层面，美国劳动力市场仍有韧性，房地产市场价格仍旧坚挺。1）美国劳动力市 ...

Group 1 - Daikin Heavy Industries signed a preferred supplier agreement with a European energy development company for offshore wind power monopile foundations, with a total contract value of approximately €547 million, accounting for about 80% of the company's audited revenue for 2022 [1] - *ST Xuefa's actual controller Zhang Jin is currently unreachable, and the company is unable to determine the specific reason for his disappearance, although it states that this will not significantly impact daily operations [3] - OFILM announced that some directors and senior management plan to collectively increase their shareholding by no less than ¥10.2 million within six months, without a price prerequisite [4] Group 2 - Shengbang Co. received a bid notification from BYD, selecting the company as a parts supplier for a specific model, specifically for crankshaft rear oil seals [5] - Longma Information stated that its artificial intelligence technology and related products have not yet generated direct revenue, with ongoing uncertainty regarding the impact on business operations [6] - *ST Culture received a notice from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding the potential termination of its stock listing due to negative net assets and an audit report that could not express an opinion [7] Group 3 - Huibo proposed to acquire 100% equity of Changsha Drainage Company, with the transaction price yet to be finalized, marking a shift to a dual business model in oil and gas extraction services and water environment [8] - Bank of China confirmed that its operations are normal and there are no undisclosed matters affecting stock trading prices, while also applying to issue a $40 billion medium-term note program [9] - Design Institute announced that its digital transformation is in a phase of construction, with AI technology still in exploratory stages and uncertain future impacts [10] Group 4 - ST Huatie's actual controller pledged to repay the company's debts in a short time, committing to mobilize resources to support the company's operations and management [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of collaboration between the Jinan Xicheng Party Branch and the Jinan Tianqiao District Fire Rescue Station to enhance fire safety through a党建共建 (Party Building Co-construction) activity [1][2] - The event included sharing valuable experiences in party organization construction, highlighting the integration of党建 (Party Building) into fire rescue responsibilities, and the role of party organizations in ensuring safety [1] - Firefighters conducted practical training sessions on the use of firefighting equipment, focusing on the operational guidelines for fire hydrants at gas stations and emergency response procedures for potential incidents [1] Group 2 - A consensus was reached to establish a long-term cooperation mechanism in fire safety promotion, emergency rescue collaboration, and regular training exercises to enhance safety management and emergency response capabilities [2] - Future initiatives will include joint educational activities, information sharing, and ongoing practical drills to improve safety awareness and collaborative emergency response efforts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The trading activity of the Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange has significantly increased in June, but the average daily trading volume remains below 100 billion rubles, indicating a recovery from a previous low rather than sustained growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Activity - In June, the total trading volume of "next-day delivery" yuan exceeded 1.58 trillion rubles, a 13% increase from May [2]. - The average daily trading volume also grew nearly 13% to 800 billion rubles, although it is still significantly lower than the levels seen in February and March, when daily trading volumes exceeded 1 trillion rubles [2]. - The increase in trading activity in June is attributed to higher oil prices at the end of the first quarter, which led to increased foreign exchange income for exporters [2]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate - By the end of June, the yuan's exchange rate was 1 yuan to 10.92 rubles, a slight increase of 2 kopecks from the beginning of the month [3]. - The exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range of 10.8 to 11 rubles per yuan during June, indicating a stabilization in the market [3]. - Analysts expect that the yuan's supply from exporters may decrease in July due to falling oil prices in April and May, which could lead to reduced foreign exchange sales [3]. Group 3: Future Predictions - Experts predict that the ruble will gradually depreciate in the second half of the year, with the average exchange rate expected to reach approximately 1 yuan to 11.7 rubles and 1 dollar to 85 rubles by the fourth quarter [4]. - Factors contributing to the ruble's depreciation include seasonal import demand, increased foreign exchange spending for summer travel, and potential interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia [4]. - Analysts believe that the yuan's exchange rate will rise in the second half of the year, while the ruble will experience moderate depreciation due to seasonal factors and monetary policy [4].

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the recent interest rate cut by the Russian central bank from 20% to 18%, with a forecast to further reduce it to 14% by the end of the year, highlighting the implications for savings and loans in the Russian economy [3][5][10] - The interest rate of 18% is significantly higher than in many other countries, making saving attractive but borrowing extremely costly, which could stifle economic activity [4][6][12] - The central bank's decision to cut rates is seen as a response to decreasing inflation, which has dropped from a peak of 12.8% to 4.3%, indicating a potential stabilization of the economy [6][8][9] Group 2 - The central bank's rate cut is described as a "medicine" for the economy, aimed at alleviating the financial burden on businesses and encouraging investment, as high rates previously restricted economic growth [7][10] - The article outlines three key factors that give the central bank confidence in lowering rates: reduced inflation, the need for economic recovery, and a stabilized currency exchange rate [8][9][12] - Despite the rate cuts, the article warns that the underlying issues in the Russian economy, such as technological isolation and labor shortages, remain unresolved, suggesting that the economic recovery may be slow and challenging [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Brent and WTI may still have a chance to challenge $80 per barrel in the third quarter, and SC may challenge 580 yuan per barrel. In the long - term, there is significant downward pressure on oil prices. Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel this year, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [5]. - In the short - term, the valuation is at a medium level and there is still a chance to rise. The strategy includes short - term bottom - fishing and long - term high - selling [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - This week's view on crude oil is to hold long positions. In the third quarter, there may still be a chance to challenge $80. Supply shows that Russian crude oil supply is resilient, and non - Russian supply has significant changes. Demand is differentiated, with different trends in refineries and refined oil products in different regions [5]. 3.2 Macro - The long - end US Treasury yield fluctuates significantly, and the gold - oil ratio rebounds. Overseas inflation rises, and the service industry PMI rebounds. The RMB exchange rate continues to strengthen, and social financing recovers [11][16][17]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC + core member countries: Saudi Arabia leads the August OPEC + production increase plan. Iraq's Kirkuk crude oil plans to resume exports by the end of the year. The UAE reduces the allocation of Murban crude oil. Other countries also have various production and export situations [7]. - Non - OPEC +: The US shale oil production and drilling rig numbers decline. Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and other countries also have different supply changes. OPEC + is accelerating the exit from production cuts, and non - OPEC + supply is expected to increase in 2025 [8]. 3.4 Demand - The spot demand turns weak marginally. In different regions, China's new refining capacity will be released in the second half of the year. Asian and European refineries have different raw material preferences. The demand for refined oil products is polarized, with tight diesel supply and weak gasoline demand [9]. 3.5 Inventory - The US commercial inventory rebounds, and the inventory in the Cushing area stabilizes but is significantly lower than the historical average. The European crude oil inventory rebounds, while diesel and gasoline are destocking. The domestic refined oil profit is repaired [58][63][65]. 3.6 Price, Spread, and Position - The North American basis rebounds slightly, the monthly spread declines, SC is stronger than the outer market and the monthly spread strengthens, and the net long position stabilizes [68][70][75].