Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The planting industry is seeing significant progress with summer grain wheat harvest, reaching over 30% completion as of May 30, with favorable weather conditions expected to enhance soil moisture and facilitate mechanized sowing [10][11] - The commercialization of genetically modified crops is anticipated to accelerate, aiming to improve yield and self-sufficiency in key varieties, supported by government initiatives to protect new plant varieties [10] - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs is showing a slight increase, with a current price of 14.39 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 0.36% [11][60] - The supply of breeding sows has slightly decreased, with a total of 40.38 million heads reported, while slaughtering volumes have increased significantly year-on-year [11][60] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - As of May 30, 1.29 million acres of summer wheat have been harvested, with regions like Hubei and Sichuan completing their harvests [10] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasizes the importance of mechanization to enhance yield and efficiency in sowing [10] - Recommended stocks include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development for planting, and leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong for seed production [10] Pig Farming - The average price of external three-way cross pigs is 14.39 CNY/kg, with a slight increase from the previous week [11] - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, while slaughtering volumes have increased by 20% year-on-year [11] - Recommended stocks in the breeding sector include Dekang Agriculture, Jinke Smart Agriculture, and Muyuan Foods, with feed companies like Haida Group also highlighted [11] Key Agricultural Products Data Tracking - Corn: Current average price is 2378.15 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [23] - Wheat: Current average price is 2457.51 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.35% [26] - Soybeans: Current average price is 3927.89 CNY/ton, remaining stable [38] - Cotton: Current average price is 14480.00 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.14% [42] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.71 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.73% [48] - Vitamin E is priced at 101.60 CNY/kg, with a decrease of 4.87% [48]

5月30日，生猪板块突发大涨，其中，巨星农牧（603477）涨停，牧原股份（002714）、温氏股份 （300498）涨超2%。农业50ETF(516810)相应逆市走高。 华源证券也表示，当前生猪板块的投资应从"周期思维"向"优质优价"转化。对应到股价层面，当前板块 市场关注度较低，且板块估值处于相对低位；成本领先的企业在2025年盈利确定性较强，建议重点关注 优质生猪养殖龙头。 农业50ETF(516810)紧密跟踪中证农业主题指数，覆盖养殖业、农化制品、饲料、种植业等细分领域， 汇聚"养殖+种植"龙头，前十大权重股合计占比超60%。当前农业板块整体估值处于历史较低位置，在 猪周期反转和新一代大模型等多重催化下，板块长期投资价值凸显。 导致生猪板块集体大涨的主要原因或是，29日发改委会议号召稳产能稳猪价。2024年二季度以来，生猪 价格持续走弱。无论是能繁母猪还是新生仔猪都持续增加，且今年产业端集体增重，并且去年三、四季 度猪价基数较高。从CPI角度，如果后续猪价继续下跌，或对CPI造成拖累，政府层面存在监管诉求。 政策干预下，市场或受到反转预期的催化。 中泰证券（600918）表示，随着猪周期变短以及预 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **new consumption** sector and its performance compared to **traditional growth stocks** such as **Dongpeng Beverage** and **Yanjing Beer** [1][5][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **New Consumption Sector**: - The new consumption sector is experiencing innovation through content marketing, particularly in personal care, health products, and daily chemicals, with valuations between **1x to 1.3x PEG** [1][4]. - The sector is expected to enter a phase of consolidation due to a moderate to high risk appetite, similar to the market conditions in **2019** [1][4]. - Key growth areas include **emotional consumption**, **new technologies (AI)**, and **new channels**, with strong performance in the first half of the year [1][8]. - **Traditional Growth Stocks**: - Companies like **Dongpeng Beverage** and **Yanjing Beer** are undervalued with PEG ratios below **1**, and profit growth is projected to exceed **30%** [1][5]. - The second quarter is expected to see accelerated sales, presenting potential absolute and relative returns [5][7]. - **Investment Recommendations for 2025**: - New consumption remains the preferred investment direction, focusing on beauty and snack sectors, with companies like **RuYuchen** and **Salted Fish** highlighted [1][6]. - Traditional growth stocks in the beverage sector, particularly **sugar-free tea** and **beer**, are also recommended due to their growth potential [1][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Catalysts for June 2025**: - The launch of new products in the AI and consumer sectors, such as **Xiaomi's smart glasses** and **Kid's AI toys**, is expected to drive market interest [1][9]. - The **618 promotion** is anticipated to significantly impact consumer electronics sales, with a reported **39% year-on-year increase** in sales across 12 categories as of May 31, 2025 [1][11]. - **Household Appliances**: - The household appliance sector is influenced by the **old-for-new policy** and promotional activities, with major brands like **Gree** and **Midea** expected to benefit [1][12][13]. - **Light Industry and Textile Sector**: - Investment opportunities in the light industry are concentrated in new consumption, with a focus on personal care products and electronic cigarettes [3][14]. - The textile sector shows promise in sports and home textiles, with brands like **Anta** and **Luo Lai** recommended for their growth potential [3][15]. - **Export Manufacturing**: - Caution is advised in the export manufacturing sector due to uncertainties in orders and tariffs, but some companies remain worth monitoring [18][19]. - **Pet Consumption Market**: - The pet consumption market has shown strong performance during promotional events, with significant growth in domestic brands [22][23]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future investment opportunities.

生猪：又到布局时，一线专家怎么看 20250602 摘要 如何看待政策执行过程中的潜在影响？ 春节后猪价坚挺，前五个月盈利优于去年同期，主要因冻品库存低，春 节后有库存积压，且官方及第三方数据可能高估了去年基础产能和新生 指数数量，从而低估了今年上半年供给。 下半年生猪供给或高于去年，但增幅预计小于 10%，低于期货市场悲观 预期。去年下半年均价 18 元/公斤，目前 14.5 元/公斤，降幅近 20%。 若按期货 13.5 元/公斤均价，降幅超 20%过于悲观。 多部门联合调控生猪产能，旨在提振价格，修复行业盈利，降低负债风 险。上市公司整体负债已从高峰 4,500 多亿降至 3,000 多亿，但负债率 仍较高。 若能有效执行降重政策至 125 斤，将显著提升养殖效益，减少 3,400 万 头出栏量。低端企业已响应降重销售，下半年价格预期或更乐观，但需 观察具体执行情况。 当前低利率和信贷宽松环境为行业提供融资便利，但货币政策转向将带 来高债务风险。农业部和央行希望提升物价水平，猪肉价格对 CPI 影响 较大，需减少同比降幅。 Q&A 当前生猪行业的情况如何，包括投资机会？ 去年下半年，农业部在官方媒体上对 ...

Group 1: Investment Opportunities in Tourism and CRO Industry - Mid-term focus on companies in the tourism service sector such as China Youth Travel Service, China Duty Free Group, Songcheng Performance, and Jinjiang Hotels, especially those targeting mid-to-high-end tourism consumption and high-growth regions like East and South China [1] - The domestic CRO industry has transitioned from a boom driven by policy and capital to a downturn dominated by oversupply and shrinking demand, indicating a clear mid-to-long-term investment logic due to policy catalysts and concentration among leading firms [3] - For investors with higher risk tolerance, the current period may present a left-side opportunity to invest in quality CRO companies, with a recommendation to closely monitor policy developments and changes in the fundamentals of leading firms [3] Group 2: Trends in Livestock and New Energy Vehicles - Short-term caution against heavily investing in pig farming stocks such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Zhengbang Technology, as profitability remains challenged [3] - The pig industry is currently experiencing a phase of high prices stagnating, rising costs, and cautious restocking, leading to compressed profits across the industry chain, which is unfavorable for the recovery of farming profitability [3] - Data indicates a significant increase in the acceptance of new energy vehicles for long-distance travel, suggesting a structural change in user behavior beyond urban commuting [2] Group 3: Developments in Pharmaceutical Retail - The launch of the first national standard for research-oriented pharmacies marks a significant step in integrating pharmacies into the clinical research system, enhancing the diversity and validity of data samples for traditional Chinese medicine [6][7] - Major chain pharmacies like Yifeng Pharmacy, Dazhenglin, and Lao Baixing are expected to lead the transformation into research-oriented pharmacies, equipped with necessary data collection devices and quality control systems [7] - Traditional Chinese medicine companies such as Tongrentang, Yunnan Baiyao, Yiling Pharmaceutical, and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical may benefit from this new model by expanding real-world data channels and improving the success rate of new drug registrations [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [10] Core Viewpoints - The pig price center continues to decline, with both active and passive factors increasing the probability of destocking, highlighting the expected difference in the pig sector [2][14] - The pet economy is thriving, with domestic brands rapidly rising, indicating strong growth resilience in pet consumption [3][16] - The poultry sector is focusing on the breeding gap for white chickens and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens [4][18] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - The average national pig price is 14.41 yuan/kg, down 0.69% week-on-week, marking a new low for the year, with self-breeding profits around 129 yuan/head, down 13 yuan/head [2][14] - The supply side shows a slight decrease in average weight for slaughtered pigs, while demand is supported by pre-festival stocking, but may decline post-festival due to seasonal consumption fatigue [2][14] - The sector is characterized by low valuations and expected differences, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs being highlighted for their profitability [2][15] Pet Sector - The 618 pre-sale event on Taobao showed strong sales for domestic brands, with significant growth in live-streaming channels [3][16] - Pet food exports have seen continuous growth, with 11.02 million tons exported in the first four months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.17% [3][16] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., with a focus on companies with high domestic income growth [3][17] Poultry Sector - The uncertainty in breeding imports for white chickens remains, with a significant decline in breeding stock updates [4][18] - The yellow chicken supply is confirmed to be shrinking, with prices sensitive to demand changes, suggesting potential benefits from a recovery in consumption [5][21] - The egg-laying chicken sector is experiencing high prices due to restricted imports, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Xiaoming Co. due to their market share advantages [6][22] Planting Sector - The focus is on achieving high yields through the integration of good land, good seeds, good machinery, and good practices, contributing significantly to national food security [7][23] - The emphasis on biotechnology and precision breeding is expected to enhance agricultural competitiveness, with leading seed companies recommended [7][23] Feed and Animal Health Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended for its market share increase and consistent performance in the feed sector [8][25] - The animal health sector is adapting to new demands and competition, with a focus on innovative products and potential growth in pet health products [8][26]

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Jingji Zhino Times Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Jingji Zhino") is preparing to enter the IP operation business to create a second growth curve amid declining revenue and net profit in 2024, raising questions about whether this move is a rational decision or a blind trend-following [1][3]. Group 1: Business Transition - In May 2025, Jingji Zhino announced its entry into the IP industry, aiming to establish a three-in-one model of "IP matrix - traffic operation - secondary market management" to tap into the trillion-level market [2]. - Jingji Zhino's main businesses include pig and poultry breeding, feed production, and real estate development, with the new IP venture aligned with its commitment to social responsibility and consumer needs [2][3]. - The company plans to collaborate with over 50 IPs and aims to add more than 10 new signed and incubated IPs in the coming year, adjusting its IP matrix based on market feedback [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Jingji Zhino reported a revenue of 5.96 billion yuan, a 52% year-on-year decline, and a net profit of 714 million yuan, down 59.13%, marking the first performance drop since 2022 [3]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a significant drop in real estate project sales, with net profit from real estate falling approximately 90% to around 240 million yuan [3][4]. - Despite improved profitability in the pig breeding sector, the overall industry is not considered a sunrise industry, leading to a search for more lucrative side businesses [3][4]. Group 3: Market Context and Challenges - The current popularity of the IP industry is linked to trends like the "goods economy," which has gained traction among younger consumers, particularly the Z generation [8][9]. - The market for the "goods economy" reached 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 41% [8][9]. - Jingji Zhino's entry into the IP sector is seen as a potential way to enhance its brand experience and create a second growth curve, but it faces challenges in adapting to the rapidly changing consumer demands and the complexities of IP management [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of pig farming companies in A-shares and H-shares, particularly Decon Agriculture (02419.HK), which saw a year-to-date increase of 162%, highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the sector, especially as major players like Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ) plan to list in Hong Kong [1][6][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - Decon Agriculture's stock price increased by over 15% in a single day, with a current valuation of approximately 6.3 times earnings for 2024, significantly lower than leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff (300498.SZ), which have P/E ratios above 12 [1][6]. - The number of H-share pig farming companies is limited, with Decon Agriculture being one of the few comparable firms, suggesting that the market may reference its valuation when pricing Muyuan Foods' H-share [1][2]. Group 2: Competitive Position - Decon Agriculture is projected to have a pig output of 8.78 million heads in 2024, second only to industry leaders like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, indicating a strong competitive position [3]. - The company has achieved significant cost advantages, with its breeding program reportedly reducing costs to below 13 yuan per kilogram, placing it among the industry's top tier [3][4]. Group 3: Valuation Trends - Despite a strong operational performance, Decon Agriculture faced low market valuations since its listing in December 2023, with a P/E ratio dropping to around 3 times before recovering to 6.3 times following recent stock price increases [6][7]. - In contrast, other H-share companies like COFCO Joycome (01618.HK) have not experienced similar market performance, with a modest year-to-date increase of only 7% [7]. Group 4: Muyuan Foods' Strategy - Muyuan Foods is pursuing an H-share listing to enhance its international capital presence, aiming to attract long-term investors and improve its corporate governance [1][9]. - The company plans to use the funds raised from the H-share listing for global expansion, R&D investments, and working capital, which could help reduce its debt levels [11]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The domestic pig farming industry is expected to see a tightening supply as the number of breeding sows peaks and begins to decline, potentially leading to improved pricing conditions in the second half of the year [12]. - If pig prices rebound, it could provide additional support for the valuation of Muyuan Foods' H-shares [12].

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.1642 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market closed in the red [1] Sector Performance - The innovative drug, aquaculture, and military equipment sectors led the gains [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion and humanoid robot sectors experienced the largest declines [1] ETF Performance - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) led the gains with an increase of 2.26%, while the aquaculture ETF (516760) and the agricultural ETF (562900) both rose by 1.91% [2] - Other notable ETFs included the livestock ETF (159867) up 1.67% and the agricultural 50 ETF (159827) up 1.62% [2] Pig Industry News - Recent market news indicated that the pig industry will not increase the number of breeding sows and will reduce the weight of fattening pigs to 120 kg, discouraging the sale of secondary fattening pigs [2] - This news has led to a collective rise in pork stocks, which had previously been in a downturn due to falling pork prices [2] - An analyst noted that since mid-May, pork prices have broken previous fluctuation ranges, hitting year-to-date lows, primarily due to the inverted price difference affecting breeding farms and increased supply [2] Declining ETFs - The Xinchuang ETF (159537) led the declines with a drop of 5.19%, followed by the Hang Seng Internet ETF (159688) down 2.77% and the China Concept Internet ETF (159607) down 2.75% [3][4]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 05 月 30 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 升水修复，重新起航 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，29 日生猪主力 2509 合约平开后探底回升震荡走高，尾盘收阳， 最高 13690 元/吨，最低 13380 元 ...