Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In the first week of December, the industrial production rhythm slightly accelerated. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the prices of risk assets. The improvement in the supply and demand of domestic investment products was limited. In terms of inflation, the increase in vegetable prices widened, and food prices accelerated their upward trend. In terms of exports, container shipping prices weakened, but the demand for coal transportation in the Pacific market strengthened, corresponding to the supplement of imported coal for winter storage. In terms of investment, supported by the cost side such as coal, cement prices stabilized. The apparent demand for steel weakened, and inventory destocking accelerated, indicating a relatively obvious production contraction. In the real estate sector, the transactions of new and second - hand houses both seasonally slowed down at the beginning of the month. For the bond market, the fundamental supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. The positive signals in the PMI price were worth continuous tracking. Next week, the focus should be on the fiscal and monetary statements of important meetings [3][33]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Inflation - related: Food price increases widened - Food prices accelerated their upward trend. From December 1st to 5th, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, with the decline widening again. Vegetable prices increased by 2.3% week - on - week, with the increase continuing to expand. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 1.5% and 1.7% week - on - week respectively [7]. 2. Import and export - related: Container shipping prices marginally weakened - The CCFI and SCFI indices both declined further. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week. The transportation demand on the European route was basically stable, with freight rates slightly declining, and the freight rates on the Mediterranean route increased by about 3%. The demand on the North American route grew weakly, with poor supply - demand balance. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the West and East coasts of the United States decreased by 5% and 4.7% respectively. - In terms of port transportation volume, from November 24th to 30th, the container throughput and cargo throughput of ports decreased by 0.3% and increased by 8.4% week - on - week respectively. The monthly average year - on - year growth rates in November were + 10.2% and + 5.7% respectively, stronger than the performance in October. - The BDI and CDFI indices accelerated their rise. This week, the demand for coal transportation from Indonesia in the Panamax market slightly decreased, with reduced trading activity and slightly adjusted freight rates. However, the freight rates in the Pacific market for Capesize vessels soared, with the daily rent reaching a new high since April 2024. Australian miners continued to make inquiries, and the transportation demand for the loading period in mid - to - late December was high, and the long - distance ore routes followed the upward trend [9]. 3. Industry - related: Production and operation slightly improved - Coal price decline widened. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 3.0% week - on - week, with the decline widening. In terms of demand, the daily consumption of power plants in inland provinces remained weak year - on - year. Terminal enterprises mainly fulfilled long - term coal contracts and had low acceptance of high - priced market coal. The daily consumption of coastal power plants slightly decreased. In terms of price, some mining areas completed their production targets at the end of the month and compressed production capacity. Coupled with environmental protection and safety inspections, the growth of domestic coal production was limited, and the coal prices at the origin showed a strong trend. However, the advantage of imported coal became apparent, effectively making up for the supply gap, and the overall port coal prices remained stable. - The increase in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 1.1% week - on - week, compared with a 0.6% increase in the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of major steel products decreased by 2.9% week - on - week, and that of rebar decreased by 6.2% week - on - week, with the destocking rhythm continuing to accelerate. The apparent demand for building materials decreased by 5.7% week - on - week, and that for rebar decreased by 4.6% week - on - week, with the weakening accelerating, indicating that the supply contraction was relatively greater. - The asphalt operating rate remained at a low level compared to the same period. This week, the operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 0.1 percentage points week - on - week to 27.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%. The rush - work demand gradually decreased, and the asphalt shipment volume was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. - The increase in copper prices widened. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 2.5% and 4.3% week - on - week respectively. The expectation of interest rate cuts increased, the US dollar index weakened, and the prominent supply - demand gap pattern promoted the accelerated rise of copper prices. - The glass futures price decreased week - on - week. The spot production and sales of glass performed well, the industry inventory was rapidly destocked. Affected by the market production contraction, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was boosted, the shipment speed in many places accelerated, the market sentiment of price support strengthened, and the demand side mainly replenished inventory appropriately, with the quoted prices rising and falling [16][21]. 4. Investment - related: Sales seasonally declined at the beginning of the month - Cement prices stopped falling and stabilized. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index increased by 0.02% week - on - week, showing signs of stabilization. The continuously strong coal prices supported the production cost, but it was the traditional off - season in the north, and the demand in the south was low due to inventory pressure. It was difficult for manufacturers to fully implement price increases, and the overall cement prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. - New - house transactions slightly declined at the beginning of the month. From November 28th to December 4th, the transaction area of new houses in 30 cities was 2.118 million square meters, a 0.6% decrease week - on - week and a 36% decrease year - on - year, with the decline continuing to widen. The sales momentum of new houses at the beginning of the month declined. - Second - hand house transactions continued to weaken. From last Friday to this Thursday, the transaction area of second - hand houses decreased by 2.7% week - on - week and 39.6% year - on - year, with the week - on - week decline widening, mainly due to the high - base effect [24][25]. 5. Consumption: The retail sales of passenger cars in November decreased by 7% year - on - year - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.263 million vehicles, a 7% decrease compared with the same period last year and a 1% increase compared with the previous month. - Crude oil prices continued to rise. As of December 5th, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased by 0.9% and 2.6% week - on - week respectively, with the increase of the latter widening. The strengthened expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the weakening of the US dollar index, the OPEC +'s policy of suspending production increases, and the failure to reach an agreement in the US - Russia meeting boosted oil prices [27].

Group 1 - Shoulv Hotel announced the resignation of Deputy General Manager Zhang Shujuan due to personal reasons, effective November 30, 2025 [1] - China State Construction Engineering Corporation issued the first commercial office complex real estate asset-backed securities (ABS) in the country, with a scale of 1.246 billion yuan, backed by the Shanghai Zhongjian Plaza project [1] - Fosun Tourism Group launched its HiSphere brand for urban cultural tourism malls, with the first project "Hi·Chongqing" signed, expected to open in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 2 - Joy City Holdings' subsidiary Wuhan Diyue filed a lawsuit against the Natural Resources and Urban-Rural Development Bureau of Wuhan's Caidian District over an administrative agreement dispute [2] - The lawsuit seeks to terminate the land use rights transfer contract signed on December 31, 2019, and demands the return of 360 million yuan in land transfer fees and compensation totaling 713 million yuan for losses incurred [3] Group 3 - The "Wai Li" international commercial entertainment complex is set to officially open on December 26, featuring major components like Wangfujing WellTown and Nuo Lan Hotel, with over 500 brands expected to be introduced [4] - In Q3 2025, 51 listed cultural tourism companies reported a combined revenue of approximately 83.993 billion yuan, with 33 companies profitable and 18 at a loss, indicating a predominance of profitability in the sector [5][6]

不过话说回来，政策这边倒是挺给力的。房贷利率降到3.2%左右，首付最低15%，还有各种购房补贴。武汉那边三孩家庭买房补贴最高20万，这力度确实不 小。 问题是，有钱买房的人在犹豫，没钱买房的人还是没钱 。 2026年楼市走向已明朗！马云曹德旺想法一致，准备买房的人先看这3个信号！ 最近关于楼市的讨论又沸沸扬扬起来， 马云和曹德旺这两位大佬的观点居然出奇一致 。一个说"八年后房子就是最便宜的"，一个直接喊话"多余的房子赶紧 卖"。这会不会预示着2026年楼市真的要变天了？ 说实话，现在的楼市就像是冰火两重天。你看那些一线城市核心区域，房价依然坚挺，上海核心区房价同比还涨了5.7%呢。但另一边呢？三四线城市的房 子就像是烫手山芋， 降价40%都没人要 。这种分化，可以说是越来越明显了。 所以现在到底是买房还是卖房？我觉得得看你手里握的是什么牌。 据说现在全国二手房挂牌量已经突破850万套了，这个数字听起来就吓人。比如南宁那边，朋友的房子挂了一年都卖不出去，从130万砍到80万都没人看。这 样的情况，在很多城市都不是个例。 如果你手里有多套房，特别是三四线城市的， 真的可以考虑出手了 。继续持有不仅要承担房产税的风 ...

点拾导读：我们一直说，股票长期是"称重器"，但到底如何给股票"称重"呢？在今天的这篇分享中，中泰资管姜诚提出了一个原创定义：称重 是对长期分红折现值"求积分"，而非"求导"。那么背后的逻辑又是什么呢？下面分享这篇来自姜诚的原创思考，希望给大家带来帮助 时间飞快，年关将至，又到了总结和反思的时候。 先当事后诸葛亮，复一下盘。今年市场整体表现不错，多数股票上涨。但表现也有分化，基本面是主线。顺周期行业整体需求难言强劲，但一 些行业受益于供给端的良性变化，利润有见底回升迹象；个别产能过剩且没有出清迹象的行业则收入和利润两端承压。房地产的量价都继续下 行，报表端还在消化库存压力，超过一半的公司前三季度录得亏损；白酒受累于结构性的需求下行，多数企业单季度释放出少见的利润负增 长，跟房地产成了难兄难弟；银行的弱周期属性越来越明显，在息差阶段性见底的利好加持下，今年获得了正收益。也有亮眼的明星，储能、 AI等领域的需求都有强劲增长，虽然在技术路线上有分歧，但阶段性的高增长确定性明摆，分歧较小的方向涨幅最大。 股市的分化，必然导致基金经理业绩的冰火两重天。今年我们的组合涨得慢了点，是懈怠还是投资框架所致？也需要复一下盘。 今 ...

以下文章来源于中泰证券资管 ，作者文/姜诚 中泰证券资管 . 中泰证券（上海）资产管理有限公司官方公众订阅号，投资路上的好朋友。 点拾导读：我们一直说，股票长期是"称重器"，但到底如何给股票"称重"呢？在今天的这篇分享 中，中泰资管姜诚提出了一个原创定义：称重是对长期分红折现值"求积分"，而非"求导"。那么背 后的逻辑又是什么呢？下面分享这篇来自姜诚的原创思考，希望给大家带来帮助 时间飞快，年关将至，又到了总结和反思的时候。 先当事后诸葛亮，复一下盘。今年市场整体表现不错，多数股票上涨。但表现也有分化，基本面 是主线。顺周期行业整体需求难言强劲，但一些行业受益于供给端的良性变化，利润有见底回升 迹象；个别产能过剩且没有出清迹象的行业则收入和利润两端承压。房地产的量价都继续下行， 报表端还在消化库存压力，超过一半的公司前三季度录得亏损；白酒受累于结构性的需求下行， 多数企业单季度释放出少见的利润负增长，跟房地产成了难兄难弟；银行的弱周期属性越来越明 显，在息差阶段性见底的利好加持下，今年获得了正收益。也有亮眼的明星，储能、AI等领域的 需求都有强劲增长，虽然在技术路线上有分歧，但阶段性的高增长确定性明摆，分歧较 ...

【新华企业资讯12月6日】12月5日，山海图于上海成功举办第二届"2025东南亚&北非出海峰会"，参会企业达到3000家，现场气氛热烈。 本次峰会由山海图主办，由源筑地产、华侨银行、宁波银行、越海、友太安、必达控股协办，由PT Suryacipta Swadaya、图拿思普瑞玛工业园、浙江翼展国 际、中机中联赞助。 峰会开始前，由中国人民大学教授金灿荣、《大出海》作者林雪萍、马来西亚国会议员陈国伟、华侨银行董事总经理林昌鸿、必达一路通副总裁曹勐、宁波 银行总行海外业务部总经理陆志琼、友太安总裁张谦、越海国际事业部总经理龚静、飞书深诺集团公共事务部副总裁郎冀升、河南省企业联合会／河南省企 业家协会副秘书长党进、上海有色网信息科技股份有限公司营销副总经理余磊、中机中联工程有限公司副总经理／副总工艺师宋利强、中国对外经贸／会计 学会副会长／兼IC500国际合规智库秘书长宋宁、源筑地产总经理高晓宇、山海图中国总经理卢少博共同为本次峰会剪彩，正式为本次峰会拉开帷幕。 本次峰会为期两天，共30场分享。山海图精心筹备3个多月，将过去8年出海实战的信息总结了下来，并且邀请了众多在海外生活工作多年的专家一道，针对 东南亚和北非 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition in economic cycles and the implications for wealth management, emphasizing the importance of structural debt and fiscal policy over monetary policy in the context of liquidity changes expected in 2026 compared to 2025 [1] Economic Cycle Analysis Framework - Economic cycle analysis should not be confined to traditional macro asset allocation frameworks, as it emphasizes structural issues rather than aggregate concepts [2] - The economic cycle consists of regular expansions and contractions, categorized into long, medium, and short cycles, including the Kondratieff, Juglar, Kuznets, and Minsky cycles [2] Phases of the Real Cycle - The real cycle is divided into three main cycles: Kondratieff, Juglar, and inventory cycles [3] Kondratieff Cycle: Technological and Energy Revolutions - The Kondratieff cycle spans approximately 60 years, focusing on technological changes and resource dynamics, with current consensus highlighting AI and its supporting infrastructure as key drivers [4] - The cycle illustrates the interplay between technological efficiency and resource consumption, leading to a demand cycle [4] Juglar Cycle: Equipment Investment - The Juglar cycle, lasting 7-11 years, is driven by periodic changes in equipment investment and capital expenditure, with China currently in the early recovery phase of its sixth Juglar cycle [6][7] - Key characteristics of the current Juglar cycle include the transition from old to new driving forces, accelerated technological iteration, and significant industry differentiation [8][9] Inventory Cycle: Transition from Passive to Active Inventory Management - The inventory cycle consists of four stages, with the current phase indicating a shift from passive to active inventory management, influenced by internal market dynamics [10] - Recent data shows a decline in manufacturing PMI, indicating weak demand and a challenging environment for inventory management [10][11] Phases of the Financial Cycle - The financial cycle focuses on real estate and debt cycles, with China still undergoing a significant adjustment in its real estate market since 2020 [13][14] - The Minsky cycle describes a pattern of credit expansion leading to financial instability, with current conditions characterized by low interest rates and a gradual rise in macro leverage [17][18] Asset Prioritization Based on Cycle Phases - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 emphasizes the resonance between the Kondratieff and Juglar cycles, focusing on new productive forces while maintaining defensive positions in a low-interest environment [19] - Specific investment areas include AI computing, industrial robotics, and green energy, while avoiding high-risk assets related to the ongoing real estate adjustment [19]

在进入到12月份之后，国内消费市场需求迎来反弹。这主要原因是，到年底很多商家为了冲业绩，都会选择在此时进行打折促销，消费者也正好趁着手机、 电脑、小家电等打折之际，购买自己喜欢的商品。不过，消费市场的反弹也仅限于餐饮、日常用品、旅游等中低端领域，而像汽车、奢侈品、房子等高端消 费市场，还是较为疲软。看来高端消费市场要想完全恢复过来，还是需要较长的时间。 变化二：楼市的救市政策会更加宽松 在进入到2025年之后，国内经济总体呈现"稳中有升"的态势。数据显示，2025年前三季度，我国GDP为1015036亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.2%。同 时，2025年前三季度，全国居民人均可支配收入为32509元，扣除价格因素实际增长5.2%。值得一提的是，物价总体保持相对稳定，2025年前三季度，全国 居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下降0.1%。 尽管国内经济形势总体向好，但随着房价下跌，股市调整，许多人手中的资产却在不断缩水。而且，很多人发现现在赚钱的难度比以前更大了。对此，有业 内人士提醒：从12月开始，国内可能会迎来4个重大变化，这些变化可能会影响到我们的日常生活，建议大家提前做好准备： 变化一：消费市场需求开 ...

Market Overview - Global financial markets experienced a broad increase this week, driven by easing expectations and improved risk appetite [1] - The A-share market showed a structural upward trend, with growth style leading significantly [1] - Major indices in the US, including the Nasdaq, rose collectively, with the Nasdaq index leading with a 0.91% increase [1] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.47%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index in Hong Kong increased by 0.87% and 1.13%, respectively, indicating a strong inflow of capital into core assets [1] A-share Market Performance - The A-share market exhibited a mixed pattern of upward movement and structural differentiation, with all major indices closing higher [1] - As of December 5, the ChiNext Index led with a weekly increase of 1.86%, while the Shenzhen Component Index, Wind All A, and Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.26%, 0.72%, and 0.37%, respectively [1] - Market sentiment saw a significant turnaround on Friday, with over 4,300 stocks rising and trading volume increasing to 1.74 trillion yuan, marking a recent high [1] - The non-bank financial and non-ferrous metal sectors showed strong performance, helping the Shanghai Composite Index return above 3,900 points [1] Sector Performance - The performance of industry sectors showed a stark contrast, with upstream resources and high-end manufacturing leading the gains [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector surged by 5.35%, while the communication, defense, and machinery equipment sectors also performed well [2] - The non-bank financial sector experienced a significant single-day increase of 3.5%, driven by regulatory changes that lowered investment risk factors for insurance funds [2] - Conversely, some consumer and technology application sectors faced pressure, with the media industry dropping by 3.86% and real estate and beauty care sectors also declining [2] Market Drivers - The logic driving this week's market evolution is clear: policy expectations provide core support, with anticipation for the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference focused on "stabilizing growth" [2] - Industrial and event catalysts, such as the surge in global copper prices, reinforced the logic for resource stocks, while new regulations benefiting the financial sector were also significant [2] - Market sentiment improved significantly on Friday, with major funds reversing four consecutive days of net outflows to net inflows [2] Future Outlook - The market is entering an important policy observation period, with key focus on domestic and international policy signals [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10 is expected to influence global liquidity expectations, while the Central Economic Work Conference will set the tone for next year's economic policies [3] - Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and communication and military industries, which benefit from policies and prices, remain worthy of attention [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index may face technical pressure above 3,900 points, requiring sustained trading volume to solidify the breakout [3]

市场概述 美国经济数据巩固下周降息预期，三大美股指齐涨， 标普逼近纪录高位，和纳指 四连涨；英伟达回落0.5%、但全周涨超3%，特斯拉一周涨近6%；同意收 购华纳兄弟后，奈飞收跌近3%；中概指数涨超1%、跑赢大盘、扭转全周跌势， 百度美股大涨近6%。 美国PCE通胀数据公布后，美债收益率加速上行至两周新高；美元指数转涨并刷新日高，黄金刷新日高、盘中涨超1%，后美元和黄金回吐涨幅。 华见早安之声 加密货币两连跌，比特币一度跌近5%、跌破8.9万美元。 银和铜本周第二日齐创历史新高，白银盘中创历史新高，期银盘中涨超4%；伦铜反弹超1%、本周第三日收创历史新高。原油三连涨、又创两周新高，美油 两周来首次收盘站上60美元。 亚洲时段，A股和港股走高，创业板、深成指涨超1%，百度涨超5%，保险、券商领涨，CPO、商业航天走强，摩尔线程上市首日大涨，稀土拉升。 要闻 何立峰与美国财政部长贝森特、贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话。 中国首部上市公司监管行政法规来了，证监会发布征求意见稿，强化对董事高管等"关键少数"约束，针对财务造假等违法行为建全链条机制。 A股保险板块大涨， 风险因子再度下调，壮大"耐心资本"，险资入市进一步打 ...