证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250507 "稳市场稳预期"政策发布提振资本市场信 心 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 5 月 7 日上午，中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督 管理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况 并答记者问。 观点 2025 年 05 月 07 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 潘京 执业证书：S0600524120011 panj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 ◼ 一季度数据显示经济整体呈现企稳回升态势，但内需压力仍存，在关税 影响下，外部环境不确定性增加，出口下行、企业利润实际受损的程度 仍然有待评估。为贯彻中央政治局会议精神，进一步实施好适度宽松的 货币政策，"一行一局一会"出台了全面、清晰、务实的一揽子金融支持 政策，以"稳市场、稳预期"为目标，释放出强烈的宏观调控信号。本 次会议发声既体现了中央对当前经济形势的精准把控，也展现出中央坚 定不移执行高质量发展目标的战略定力。 ◼ 央行分别就数量型、价格型和结构型工具 ...

5月7日，国新办举行新闻发布会上，央行行长潘功胜宣布：降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。公开市场7 天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点。 也就是说，降准降息来了！ 降准方面，幅度高达0.5个百分点，释放长期流动性约1万亿元，超出预期，央行过往降准一般是0.25个百分点。 意义：有助于增加市场上的资金数量。印证了中国社会科学院学部委员余永定的观点： 与2024年相比，中国人民银行想通过现有政策工具降低市场基准利率，加快M2增速，从而实现 GDP增速5%左右、通货膨胀率涨幅2%左右的货 币政策最终目标。 之前监管已经明确：从2025年起每年新增保费的30%用于投资A股。未来三年公募基金持有A股流通市值每年至少增长10%。 我前期文章中多次提到，我国已经明确今年经济增长目标是5%左右，为了这个目标，外部环境风险越大，国内宏观政策发力的力度就越大，一轮 政策组合拳随时来临，现在得到印证，未来根据形势需要不排除还会有新的组合拳 此外，央行宣布降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，预计每年将节省居民公积金 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Overview - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to implement a package of monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, with a focus on liquidity and financing conditions [1][2] - The monetary policy will be characterized by ample liquidity, a reasonable growth of social financing, and low comprehensive financing costs [2] Group 2: Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Adjustments - The reserve requirement ratio will be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market, reducing the average reserve requirement ratio from 6.6% to 6.2% [3] - The policy interest rate will be reduced by 0.1 percentage points, leading to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and expected annual savings of over 20 billion yuan in housing provident fund loan interest for residents [4] Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC will lower the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and establish a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care re-loan to boost domestic demand [5][6] - The quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-loans will be increased from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises [6] Group 4: Capital Market Support Tools - The PBOC will merge two capital market support tools with a total quota of 800 billion yuan to enhance flexibility and meet market demands [7] - The maximum loan term for stock repurchase re-loans will be extended from 1 year to 3 years, encouraging banks to issue credit loans [8] Group 5: Technology Innovation Bond Risk Sharing Tool - The PBOC is preparing to launch a "technology board" for bond issuance, supporting financial institutions and technology enterprises, with nearly 100 market institutions planning to issue over 300 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds [10][11] - A risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds will be established to lower financing costs and support longer-term bond issuance [11] Group 6: Market Behavior Regulation - The PBOC will enhance the monetary policy framework and strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, regulating unreasonable market behaviors that may hinder monetary policy transmission [12]

具有丰富投资经验、出色管理业绩、优秀管理团队的股权投资机构，可发行科技创新债券，募集资金用 于私募股权投资基金的设立、扩募等。 此外，在完善科技创新债券配套支持机制，为科技创新债券融资提供便利方面，央行及中国证监会提 及，优化科技创新债券发行管理流程，提升融资效率，支持发行人根据资金使用特点，灵活分期发行。 简化科技创新债券信息披露规则，发行人可与投资人约定豁免相关披露信息。金融机构发行科技创新债 券可采用余额管理方式。 北京商报讯（记者 郝彦）5月7日，中国人民银行、中国证监会发布公告表示，为贯彻落实党的二十届 三中全会精神，加快多层次债券市场发展，构建同科技创新相适应的科技金融体制，加强对国家重大科 技任务和科技型中小企业的金融支持，完善长期资本投早、投小、投长期、投硬科技的支持政策，就支 持发行科技创新债券有关事宜公告。 在丰富科技创新债券产品体系，加快构建多层次债券市场方面，提到金融机构、科技型企业、私募股权 投资机构和创业投资机构（以下简称"股权投资机构"）等三类机构可发行科技创新债券，募集资金用于 支持科技创新领域投融资。 商业银行、证券公司、金融资产投资公司等金融机构可发行科技创新债券，聚焦主责 ...

中国人民银行行长潘功胜介绍， 人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出一揽子货币政策措施，主要有三 大类举措： 一是数量型政策，通过降准等措施，加大中长期流动性供给，保持市场流动性充裕。 二是价格型政策，下调政策利率，降低结构性货币政策工具利率，同时调降公积金贷款利率。 三是结构型政策，创设并加力实施结构性货币政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普惠金融等领域。 智通财经编辑 | 刘海川 2025年5月7日，国务院新闻办公室就"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"举行新闻发布会，中国人民银 行行长潘功胜，金融监管总局局长李云泽，中国证监会主席吴清共同介绍相关情况。一文速览发布会重 磅内容。 央行推出 "三大类、十项措施"稳市场稳预期 图片来源：界面图库 智通财经记者 | 张倩楠 这三类举措共有十项具体政策： 一、降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 二、完善存款准备金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率，从目前的5%调降 为0%。 三、下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带 动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive financial policy package to stabilize the market and manage expectations, focusing on real estate, stock markets, small and micro enterprises, and foreign trade support [1]. Group 1: Real Estate Market Support - The financial regulatory authority is enhancing the real estate financing coordination mechanism, with commercial banks approving loans amounting to 6.7 trillion yuan, supporting over 16 million housing units [2]. - In Q1, the real estate loan balance increased by over 750 billion yuan, with new personal housing loans reaching the largest quarterly increase since 2022, and housing rental loans growing by 28% year-on-year [2]. - Future efforts will include improving financing systems to match new real estate development models and ensuring stable financing for high-quality housing [2]. Group 2: Stock Market Stabilization - The financial regulatory authority is leveraging insurance funds as long-term capital to stabilize the stock market, having increased the investment limit for insurance funds in equity assets [3]. - Upcoming measures include expanding the long-term investment pilot for insurance funds by an additional 60 billion yuan and adjusting solvency regulations to encourage more stock market investments [3]. - A long-term assessment mechanism will be promoted to incentivize institutions for sustained investments [3]. Group 3: Support for Small and Micro Enterprises - A comprehensive policy package will be introduced to support financing for small and micro enterprises, focusing on increasing supply, reducing costs, improving efficiency, and creating a favorable environment [4]. - Efforts will include enhancing financing coordination, increasing the issuance of first loans and credit loans, and simplifying internal processes for faster loan approvals [4]. - The aim is to ensure that the growth rate of loans to small and micro enterprises exceeds the average growth rate of all loans [4]. Group 4: Foreign Trade Development Support - The financial regulatory authority plans to implement policies to support foreign trade development, expanding financing coordination to all foreign trade enterprises [5][6]. - Measures will include optimizing export credit insurance policies, enhancing export stability, and providing financing guarantees for foreign trade enterprises transitioning to domestic sales [6]. - The goal is to boost consumption and expand domestic demand while supporting the integration of domestic and foreign trade [6].

国务院新闻办公室5月7日上午举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行行长潘功胜、国家金融监督管理总局 局长李云泽、中国证券监督管理委员会主席吴清介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况， 并答记者问。 潘功胜：人民银行支持汇金公司增持 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，汇金公司是维护资本市场稳定的重要 战略力量。人民银行坚定支持汇金公司在必要时加大力度增持股票市场指数基金，并向其提供充足的再贷 款支持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 潘功胜：将两项支持资本市场的工具额度合并为8000亿元 5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在参加国新办新闻发布会时表示，去年人民银行会同证监会、金融监管 总局等部门创设了两项支持资本市场的工具，这两项资本市场支持工具首期额度分别是5000亿元、3000亿 元。 目前，互换便利工具已经开展了2次操作、总金额1050亿元；超过500家上市公司、主要股东公告使用贷款 回购增持股票，贷款总金额约3000亿元。 在政策实施过程中，人民银行会同证监会、金融监管总局不断总结实践经验，结合各方建议，不断优化工 具的政策要素，提高政策的实施效率。 一是将两项工具总额度8000亿元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, which includes monetary policy measures from the People's Bank of China (PBOC), regulatory policies from the financial regulatory authority, and market stabilization strategies from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) [2][6][14]. Monetary Policy Measures by PBOC - The PBOC will lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3]. - The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance and financial leasing companies will be reduced from 5% to 0% [4]. - The policy interest rate will be decreased by 0.1 percentage points, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate dropping from 1.5% to 1.4%, likely leading to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [4]. - The interest rates for various structural monetary policy tools will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, including special structural tools and re-lending rates [4]. - The personal housing provident fund loan rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home loan rate decreasing from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. - An additional 300 billion yuan will be allocated for technology innovation and technological transformation re-lending, increasing the total from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [4]. - A new 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-lending" will be established to encourage banks to increase credit support for these sectors [5]. - The re-lending quota for agriculture and small enterprises will be increased by 300 billion yuan, supporting banks in expanding loans to these sectors [5]. - The PBOC will optimize two capital market support tools, merging 500 billion yuan for securities fund insurance company swaps and 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase re-lending into a total of 800 billion yuan [5]. - A risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds will be created, allowing the PBOC to provide low-cost re-lending to support the issuance of these bonds [5]. Regulatory Policies by Financial Regulatory Authority - The financial regulatory authority will introduce eight incremental policies to enhance the implementation of existing policies and support the real estate market [7]. - A series of financing systems will be developed to align with new real estate development models [8]. - The scope for long-term investment by insurance funds will be expanded to inject more incremental capital into the market [8]. - Regulatory rules will be adjusted to lower the investment risk factors for insurance companies in stock investments [9]. - A comprehensive policy package will be launched to support financing for small and private enterprises [10]. - Policies will be developed to support foreign trade development, particularly for entities affected by tariffs [10]. - The management of merger loans will be revised to facilitate industry transformation [11]. - Financial asset investment companies will be established to enhance investment in technology innovation enterprises [12]. - High-quality development opinions for technology insurance will be formulated to support risk-sharing and compensation [13]. Market Stabilization Strategies by CSRC - The CSRC will focus on consolidating market stability while enhancing market vitality and functionality [14]. - Measures will be introduced to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [15]. - The CSRC will promote the development of technology innovation bonds and optimize the issuance process [15]. - Efforts will be made to increase the participation of long-term funds in the market [16]. - Strategies will be implemented to support the real estate market and stock market stability, including increasing insurance fund investments [17][18]. - Specific measures will be introduced to assist listed companies in coping with the impacts of tariffs [19].

目前美国对华综合累计税率已超过100%，今后还有可能会有更多的不确定性。这将不可避免地对中国出口、消费、投资乃至于GDP产生重大冲击。初步估 算，美国对华关税每加征10%，中国出口或下降2%-2.5%，在美国关税未减免的情况下，2025年中国出口有可能下滑8%-10%；2026年出口增速可能进一步 下降15%左右。随着出口受阻，消费和投资领域也将出现连锁效应，对出口、消费、投资的变化如果不加干预，不排除极端情况下2025年中国GDP增速可能 下降1.0-1.5个百分点。同时，股票市场也出现了较大波动。 除了支持政府债券发行之外，一方面需要支持商业银行加大信贷投放，尤其是增加对出口、农业、"卡脖子"等相关行业企业的资金支持。另一方面，还需要 支持政策性银行、商业银行、证券、保险、基金等头部金融机构与大型央企集团、众多上市公司增持金融资产，稳定股市，稳定市场信心。综合来看，市场 存在较大的资金缺口。 2.年内存准率还有进一步下调的空间 存准率变动与国内经济发展需求密切相关，服务于宏观调控的政策目标。随着我国金融市场总体规模逐步扩大，货币政策总量调节的传导链条将更加复杂， 存准率对市场总量的调节难度上升。我国货币政 ...

Group 1 - Global markets experienced a significant turning point last week, driven by easing trade tensions and unexpectedly strong April non-farm payroll data, which alleviated concerns about economic slowdown [1] - The S&P 500 index recorded its longest consecutive rise since 2004, increasing for nine days in a row, while the Dow Jones also achieved a nine-day gain, recovering all losses caused by tariff announcements within two weeks [1] Group 2 - The April non-farm payroll added 177,000 jobs, serving as a key catalyst that led traders to significantly reduce expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - U.S. Treasury yields surged across the board, with the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds narrowing to 15 basis points, indicating a typical bear market flattening [2] - The U.S. dollar index rebounded sharply after the non-farm data release, closing above the 100 mark with a weekly increase of 1.8% [2] Group 3 - The commodities market showed contrasting trends, with gold prices dropping 3.2%, marking the largest weekly decline since November 2020, and falling over 7% from the historical high of $3,500 per ounce [2] - The WTI crude oil market faced a significant decline, with prices dropping 8% for the week, the worst performance since March, exacerbated by OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day [2] Group 4 - Attention is focused on two major central bank decisions in the coming week, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5.25-5.5%, while market focus shifts to clues regarding the timing of potential rate cuts [3] - Despite a surprising 0.3% contraction in U.S. GDP for Q1, analysts suggest this may be due to statistical distortions from companies rushing imports, with expectations for a recovery in Q2 data [3] - The Bank of England's decision on May 8 is anticipated to be more market-moving, with 80% of traders betting on the initiation of a rate cut cycle, potentially lowering the key rate from 4.5% to 4.25% [3]