Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Investment opportunities in various sectors including precious metals, petrochemicals, polyester, and the overall market outlook for A-shares Core Views and Arguments 1. **Market Liquidity and Bullish Outlook** The market liquidity is supported by state intervention and increased insurance capital inflow, with a bullish sentiment continuing as A-shares reach 3,500 points [3][5][6] 2. **Anti-Inflation Measures** The concept of "anti-involution" is seen as a long-term solution to deflation, enhancing market risk appetite and providing valuation support for related industries, although profit and capacity utilization improvements may take time [4][6] 3. **External Environment Impact** Changes in the external environment, such as reduced recession expectations in the US and potential shifts in Federal Reserve leadership, position China favorably, maintaining optimism in the A-share market [5][6] 4. **Investment Opportunities in Precious Metals** Long-term bullish outlook on precious metals, with central bank gold purchases continuing. Silver and platinum are seen as having rebound potential, while cyclical metals like copper and aluminum benefit from supply-demand restructuring [6][10] 5. **Petrochemical Sector Challenges** The petrochemical sector faces limited refining capacity and declining profitability in coal-to-olefins and gas-to-olefins projects, with potential project shutdowns due to tariff impacts [11][12] 6. **Polyester Sector Developments** The polyester sector is entering a non-involution phase, with leading companies reducing production. Demand is expected to rise, particularly in the filament segment, with a significant turning point anticipated in 2026 [2][12][13] 7. **Steel Industry Adjustments** The steel industry is expected to see a reduction in production capacity, with a target of 20-30 million tons to balance supply and demand. The anti-involution policy is likely to enhance profitability [21][23] 8. **Cement Industry Measures** The cement industry has implemented anti-involution measures, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and better-than-expected performance in some companies [24][26] 9. **Coal Industry Dynamics** The coal industry is expected to improve its supply-demand balance due to the exit of outdated capacity, with a focus on optimizing profitability and safety standards [20][22] 10. **Glass Industry Outlook** The glass industry, particularly photovoltaic glass, is seeing a reduction in supply due to production cuts, with expectations for price rebounds. The float glass sector is still in a bottoming phase, with potential for supply-side improvements [25] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The importance of maintaining a favorable investment environment in the context of global economic shifts and domestic policy adjustments - The role of leading companies in various sectors in stabilizing market conditions through coordinated production cuts and strategic planning - The potential for significant market recovery in sectors like polyester and glass, driven by demand increases and effective supply management strategies

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a weekly update on the large refining and chemical industry, covering various aspects such as price trends, profit margins, inventory levels, and开工 rates in different sectors including polyester, refining, and chemicals. It also provides data on the stock performance and earnings forecasts of major private refining and chemical companies [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Stock Performance and Earnings Forecast**: The report tracks the price changes of 6 major private refining companies over different time - frames (weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly, and year - to - date in 2025). It also provides earnings forecasts for these companies from 2024 to 2027, including total market capitalization, net profit attributable to shareholders, PE, and PB [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) decreased this week. The domestic refining project spread remained stable with a 0.0% week - on - week change, while the foreign refining project spread decreased by 9.4% week - on - week [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: - **Raw Materials and Intermediate Products**: PX average price decreased by $17.0/ton week - on - week, and its spread over crude oil decreased by $29.4/ton. MEG price increased by 14.3 yuan/ton, and PTA price decreased by 185.0 yuan/ton. - **Polyester Filament**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices decreased, and their profit margins also declined. Inventory levels of POY, FDY, and DTY increased, while the开工 rate of polyester filament increased to 91.9%. The downstream weaving开工 rate decreased to 56.2%, and the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises decreased, while the finished product inventory increased [2][9]. - **Other Polyester Products**: The price of polyester staple fiber decreased, but its profit margin increased. The price of polyester bottle - grade chips decreased, and its profit margin also decreased [9]. - **Refining Sector**: - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China decreased this week. - **US Refined Oil**: The prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US increased this week. - **European and Singaporean Refined Oil**: The prices of refined oil products in Europe and Singapore showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [9]. - **Chemical Sector**: The prices and spreads of various chemical products such as pure benzene, styrene, acrylonitrile, and polyethylene decreased to varying degrees [9]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: The report may contain data on the performance of the big refining index and the spread trends of domestic and foreign refining projects, but specific data is not fully presented in the provided text [11][12]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: It includes multiple data series related to the polyester sector, such as the relationship between crude oil, PX, PTA, and polyester filament prices, profit margins,开工 rates, inventory levels, and production and sales rates [22][23][37]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: It provides detailed data on the relationship between crude oil and refined oil prices (gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene) in different regions (China, the US, Europe, and Singapore), including price spreads and changes [79][89][94]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: It presents data on the relationship between crude oil and various chemical product prices (such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, etc.), including price spreads and changes [129][130][134].

Core Viewpoint - Digital transformation and intelligent development are essential for companies to adapt to the digital economy, enhancing core functions and competitiveness Group 1: Intelligent Value Chain - The company focuses on maximizing overall efficiency through the development of an "intelligent value chain" that emphasizes data-driven and AI-enabled production management [1] - It aims to optimize the enterprise resource planning (ERP) system and improve financial decision-making processes to ensure better resource allocation and faster performance improvement [1] - The company is enhancing its marketing strategies by improving market information systems and customizing production to meet specific demands [1] Group 2: Intelligent Product Chain - The company is committed to creating an "intelligent product chain" that enhances production efficiency through smart scheduling and command systems [2] - It aims to achieve a self-control rate of over 99.5% for its equipment and over 80% coverage of advanced control systems [2] - The company is expanding the use of industrial robots and AR technology to improve operational efficiency and reduce costs and risks [2] Group 3: Intelligent Asset Chain - The company is enhancing equipment management through intelligent systems, aiming for 100% predictive maintenance coverage for critical equipment [3] - It is implementing advanced online monitoring and corrosion prevention strategies to optimize maintenance planning and reduce costs [3] - The company is automating its power systems and transitioning from manned to unmanned operations [3] Group 4: Intelligent Innovation Chain - The company is focusing on technology innovation by leveraging AI and large models to assist in research and development processes [4] - It aims to create a comprehensive management system for intellectual property and enhance the efficiency of technology service capabilities [4] - The company is targeting the development of high-value products that meet domestic needs while aligning with international standards [4] Group 5: Intelligent Governance Chain - The company is modernizing its management mechanisms by establishing an AI management application matrix across all business lines [5] - It is promoting smart office solutions and creating a comprehensive application matrix for various business scenarios [5] - The company is enhancing data security measures and establishing a robust network to protect sensitive information [5]

1. Report Investment Rating Information - The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the industry [158] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the large refining and chemical industry in the current week, covering various aspects such as project spreads, polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and presents detailed data on prices, profits, inventories, and operating rates [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing 3.1.1 Stock Price and Market Value - The report tracks the stock price changes of 6 major private refining companies in the past week, month, quarter, year, and from the beginning of 2025 to date, and provides profit forecasts and related financial indicators such as market value, net profit attributable to shareholders, and price - earnings ratios [8] 3.1.2 Oil Price and Refining Spreads - International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) have declined, with Brent at $68.0/barrel (down $1.2, -1.8% week - on - week) and WTI at $66.0/barrel (down $0.5, -0.8% week - on - week) - The spread of domestic refining projects is 2,673 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the spread of foreign refining projects is 1,124 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan/ton (-9% week - on - week) [8] 3.1.3 Polyester Sector - **Product Prices and Profits**: POY, FDY, and DTY prices have decreased, with POY at 6,989 yuan/ton (down 186 yuan/ton), FDY at 7,250 yuan/ton (down 229 yuan/ton), and DTY at 8,268 yuan/ton (down 161 yuan/ton). POY and DTY profits have increased, while FDY profits have decreased - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: POY, FDY, and DTY inventories have increased, with POY at 21.7 days (up 4.5 days), FDY at 22.4 days (up 3.5 days), and DTY at 28.6 days (up 3.3 days). The filament operating rate is 90.9% (up 0.4 percentage points), the loom operating rate is 58.1% (down 0.9 percentage points), the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is 10.4 days (down 1.1 days), and the finished product inventory is 28.0 days (up 0.8 days) [2][9] 3.1.4 Refining Sector - Domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices have declined; in the US, gasoline prices have declined, while diesel and jet fuel prices have increased [2] 3.1.5 Chemical Sector - The average price of PX is $861.7/ton (down $13.4 week - on - week), the spread to crude oil is $365.2/ton (down $4.4 week - on - week), and the PX operating rate is 84.6% (down 1.8 percentage points) [2] 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - The report may analyze the trends of the big refining index and the spreads of domestic and foreign refining projects, but specific data and analysis are not detailed in the provided text [12] 3.2.2 Polyester Sector - Covers various aspects such as the prices and spreads of raw materials (crude oil, PX, MEG, PTA), the prices and profits of polyester products (filaments, short fibers, bottle chips), inventory levels, and operating rates [23] 3.2.3 Refining Sector - Analyzes the prices and spreads of domestic and foreign refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) and their relationships with crude oil prices [80] 3.2.4 Chemical Sector - Analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products (polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, etc.) and their relationships with crude oil prices [136]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the weekly data of the large refining and chemical industry, including price, profit, inventory, and operating rate changes in different sectors such as refining, polyester, and chemicals, as well as the performance of relevant listed companies [2][8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread**: The domestic key large refining project spread this week was 2,673 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 377 yuan/ton (16%); the foreign key large refining project spread was 1,241 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 258 yuan/ton (26%). The average price of PX this week was 875.1 dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.9 dollars/ton, and the spread to crude oil was 369.6 dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41.0 dollars/ton [2]. - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices were 7,193/7,496/8,446 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week increases of 146/179/186 yuan/ton. The weekly average profits were 74/10/44 yuan/ton, with week - on - week increases of 88/109/114 yuan/ton. The inventory was 17.2/18.9/25.3 days, with week - on - week changes of +0.9/ - 0.9/ - 0.3 days. The filament operating rate was 90.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 pct. The downstream loom operating rate was 59.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 pct [2]. - **Refining Sector**: Domestic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose this week, while in the US, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices fell [2]. - **Chemical Sector**: The PX operating rate was 86.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 pct [2]. - **Related Listed Companies**: Private large refining and chemical & polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin凤鸣 [2]. - **Stock Performance**: The oil and petrochemical index on June 27, 2025, showed a - 2.1% change in the past week, 1.5% in the past month, - 1.1% in the past three months, - 5.9% in the past year, and - 4.9% since the beginning of 2025. Among the listed companies, Rongsheng Petrochemical had a 2.5% increase in the past week, while Tongkun Co., Ltd. had a - 33.3% change in the past year [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: For example, Hengli Petrochemical's expected net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 is 8.024 billion yuan, with a PE of 12.5 in 2025E [8]. 3.2 Big Refining Weekly Report - **2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends**: It may involve the trends of the big refining index, domestic and foreign big refining project spreads, and the changes in the performance of six private big refining companies [11][15][20]. - **2.2 Polyester Sector**: Covers various aspects such as the prices and spreads of crude oil, PX, PTA, and MEG; the operating rates of PX, PTA, and MEG; the prices and profits of POY, FDY, DTY, and polyester staple fiber; the inventory and operating rates of polyester filament and downstream looms [23][33][55]. - **2.3 Refining Sector**: Includes the prices and spreads of domestic, US, European, and Singaporean refined oil products (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) relative to crude oil [84][99][122]. - **2.4 Chemical Sector**: Focuses on the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, and styrene relative to crude oil [139][140][148].

Core Viewpoint - The "Shandong Port Crude Oil Tank Capacity Digital Trading Platform" developed by Qingdao International Energy Exchange Center has been recognized as a "Digital Financial Typical Product" in the recently announced 2025 "Good Financial Products" list, highlighting the importance of digital transformation in the energy sector [1] Group 1: Digital Transformation in Energy - The Shandong Provincial Government is advancing the construction of a unified national energy market system and exploring new paths for digital transformation in the energy sector [1] - The platform addresses industry pain points such as low digital management levels, inefficient resource allocation, and lack of pricing mechanisms in traditional crude oil tank leasing models [1] Group 2: Benefits of the "Easy Tank Capacity" Service - A leading refinery, referred to as Refinery A, imports nearly 800,000 tons of raw materials monthly through Shandong Port, making tank capacity a critical resource for stable raw material imports [2] - The "Easy Tank Capacity" service allows Refinery A to secure tank capacity online with a deposit, significantly reducing the time and cost associated with traditional offline leasing methods [2] - The service has enabled Refinery A to minimize ship waiting times and save nearly 1 million RMB in demurrage costs [2] Group 3: Achievements of Qingdao International Energy Exchange Center - The center has launched the world's first crude oil tank capacity digital trading product and established a cross-border payment system for the province [3] - It has served over 600 industry clients, with a market capacity of 34.88 million cubic meters and a transaction volume exceeding 340 billion RMB [3] - The platform contributes to the stability of the energy supply chain and promotes the digital transformation of finance, providing a replicable "Shandong Port Solution" [3]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience a slight upward trend in July, driven by dividends and technology sectors [2][4][8] - Since the beginning of 2025, A-share indices have shown wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.89% and the ChiNext Index down by 5.79% as of June 23, 2025 [3][10][11] - The report highlights that the dividend sector, particularly banks and insurance, has performed well, while the consumer sector has been relatively weak due to the impact of the liquor industry [35][36] Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, components, and gaming, may present breakthrough opportunities in July [8][36] - The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations of new policy measures to support technology innovation and consumption [5][30] - The report identifies three categories of industries based on profit growth and PE ratios, emphasizing sectors like small metals, automation equipment, and precious metals as potential investment opportunities [32][36]

Report Title - The title of the report is "Big Refining Weekly Report: Filament Prices Rebound, Production and Sales Decline Significantly" [1] Report Date - The report was released on June 22, 2025 [1] Report Analysts - The chief energy and chemical securities analyst is Chen Shuxian, CFA, with the practice certificate number S0600523020004 [1] - The research assistant is Zhou Shaowen, with the practice certificate number S0600123070007 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Report Core Views - The report provides a weekly update on the big refining industry, covering key projects' spreads, polyester, refining, and chemical segments, as well as relevant listed companies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread**: The weekly spread of domestic key big refining projects was 2,295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton (6% MoM); the spread of foreign key big refining projects was 983 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton (1% MoM). Brent crude oil was at $75.5/barrel, up $6.8 (9.8% MoM), and WTI was at $73.5/barrel, up $6.4 (9.5% MoM) [2][8] - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices were 7,079/7,357/8,300 yuan/ton, up 193/168/161 yuan/ton respectively. Their weekly average profits were 8/-73/-44 yuan/ton, down 34/51/56 yuan/ton respectively. POY/FDY/DTY inventories were 16.3/19.8/25.6 days, down 1.6/1.9/2.9 days respectively. The filament operating rate was 90.3%, up 0.6 pct. The downstream loom operating rate was 60.7%, down 0.4 pct. Weaving enterprises' raw material inventory was 11.2 days, up 0.6 days, and finished - product inventory was 26.2 days, up 0.8 days [2] - **Refining Sector**: Domestic and US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices rose this week [2] - **Chemical Sector**: The average PX price was $880.0/ton, up $61.1/ton, and the spread to crude oil was $328.6/ton, up $11.8/ton. The PX operating rate was 86.3%, down 0.1 pct [2] - **Related Listed Companies**: Private big refining and polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Group, and Xin Fengming [2] - **Stock Performance and Earnings Forecast**: The report tracks the stock price changes and earnings forecasts of 6 private refining companies, including Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, etc. For example, Hengli Petrochemical's stock price was 14.1 yuan, with a total market value of 99.3 billion yuan, and its net profit attributable to the parent in 2024A was 7.044 billion yuan [8] 2. Big Refining Weekly Report - **Index and Spread Trends**: It analyzes the trends of big refining indexes, domestic and foreign project spreads, and the price changes of crude oil, PX, and other products [11][19] - **Polyester Sector**: Multiple aspects of the polyester sector are analyzed, such as the prices and profits of PX, PTA, POY, FDY, DTY, etc., as well as the operating rates and inventory levels of relevant products [22][38] - **Refining Sector**: It details the price and spread changes of domestic, US, European, and Singaporean gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel [82][97][108][119] - **Chemical Sector**: It presents the price and spread changes of various chemical products, including polyethylene LLDPE, EVA foaming materials, etc. [129][130]

| 板块名称 | 治區� | 主力金额 | 板块名称 | 涨幅备 | 主力金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油气开采及服务 | +4.42% | -10.27 乙 | 贵金属 | -1.79% | -4.88 7. | | 游戏 | +3.50% | +8.01 乙 | 毛发医疗 | -1.07% | -1.26 Z. | | 影视院线 | +3.09% | +13.447. | 青蒿素 | -0.97% | -7111万 | | 风电设备 | +2.96% | +4.03 7. | 兵装重组概念 | -0.95% | -2.17 亿 | | 可燃冰 | +2.77% | -4.72 Z | 机场航运 | -0.82% | +2182万 | | 电子身份证 | +2.70% | +7.60 7. | 金属锌 | -0.79% | -3.03 7. | | 快手概念 | +2.70% | +15.43 7. | 汽车服务及其他 | -0.79% | +17317 | | Web3.0 | +2.68% | +10.15 7 | 美容护理 | -0.75% ...

Group 1: Oil Market Impact - The recent airstrikes by Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities have caused Brent crude oil prices to surge by 5.5%, reaching $75 per barrel, indicating significant market volatility [3][4] - Iran, being the third-largest oil producer in OPEC and controlling the Strait of Hormuz, is crucial for global oil transport, with 40% of oil shipments passing through this region [3][4] - Companies in the energy sector, such as CNOOC and Rongsheng Petrochemical, are viewed as strong investments during this turmoil, with oil transportation firms like COSCO Shipping Energy benefiting from rising freight rates [3][4] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have reached a two-month high of $3,450 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and market speculation regarding potential U.S. involvement in the conflict [3][4] - Gold is considered a safe-haven asset during crises, with mining companies like Shandong Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold expected to see significant profit increases with every $100 rise in gold prices [3][4] - However, there are concerns about potential short-term corrections in gold prices, as seen in previous market fluctuations [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical and Defense Sector - The ongoing conflict is characterized as a significant geopolitical event, with potential implications for oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, possibly pushing prices to $100 per barrel [4] - Defense stocks, including AVIC and Hongdu Aviation, are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased military spending and demand for military aircraft [4] Group 4: Broader Market Considerations - Despite the geopolitical risks, there are positive signals from domestic monetary policy, with the central bank injecting liquidity into the market [5] - The technology sector, particularly companies involved in computing power and server production, is seen as undervalued and presents buying opportunities [5] - Consumer sectors, such as beauty and home appliances, have shown strong performance, with companies like Proya and Midea Group demonstrating stable earnings [5] Group 5: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, with allocations of 30% in energy and defense, 30% in technology growth, 20% in consumer sectors, and 20% in cash for flexibility [5][6] - Key support levels for oil are identified at $72 per barrel and for gold at $3,400 per ounce, with strategies to adjust positions based on market movements [5][6] - Caution is advised regarding potential corrections in oil and gold prices if geopolitical tensions ease, as historical trends suggest significant price drops following de-escalation [5][6]