Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options marks a significant step in China's futures market, enhancing price discovery and risk management capabilities in the aluminum industry, while promoting green and high-quality development [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Launch and Performance - On June 10, 2023, China's first recycled commodity futures and options for casting aluminum alloy were listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with a trading volume of 57,300 contracts and a transaction value of 11.011 billion yuan on the first day [1]. - The initial listing price for the casting aluminum alloy futures was set at 18,365 yuan per ton, with the main contract closing at 19,190 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.49% increase from the listing price [6]. Group 2: Industry Context and Importance - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys, with a production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and an expected output of 6.2 million tons in 2024 [3]. - The recycling of aluminum is crucial for resource security and promoting a green, low-carbon transition, with recycled aluminum production exceeding 10 million tons in recent years [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Pricing Mechanism - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures addresses the industry's need for a unified pricing mechanism, allowing companies to manage price risks more effectively, especially given the volatility in raw material prices [4]. - Industry leaders emphasize that the new futures will provide better tools for risk management, enabling companies to lock in prices more accurately and enhance their competitiveness [4][5]. Group 4: Policy Support and Future Outlook - The Chinese government has prioritized the development of a green aluminum industry, aiming for recycled aluminum production to exceed 15 million tons by 2027 [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aims to enhance its role in supporting the high-quality development of the aluminum industry and improving its international influence through the introduction of new financial products [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry - wide investment rating. However, for each metal, it provides a mid - to long - term outlook, including "oscillation", "oscillation - weakening", etc., which can be roughly understood as a short - to medium - term investment view. For example, copper, aluminum, lead, stainless steel, and tin are expected to oscillate; zinc and nickel are expected to oscillate weakly; and the outlook for alumina and aluminum alloy is more specific with trading strategies [5][8][12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The colored metals market is influenced by a combination of a weak US dollar, low LME inventories, and weakening demand, leading to continued oscillation. In the short - to medium - term, focus on structural opportunities and cautiously consider short - term long opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long - term, there is uncertainty in the demand outlook for base metals, and it is advisable to look for opportunities to short on rallies for some metals with oversupply or expected oversupply [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Current Situation**: The US May labor market data was better than expected, with non - farm payrolls increasing by 139,000. Global copper mining giant Antofagasta initiated mid - year negotiations with Chinese and Japanese smelters. In May, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.26 million tons month - on - month and 12.86% year - on - year. As of June 9, copper inventory in mainstream regions in China rose to 149,500 tons. The US increased the tariff on imported steel and aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50% [5]. - **Main Logic**: The US manufacturing activity contracted for the third consecutive month in May, and overseas economies are at risk of further weakening. On the supply side, copper concentrate processing fees have continued to decline, and raw material supply is still tight. Some smelters at home and abroad have announced maintenance and production cuts. On the demand side, with the arrival of the consumption off - season, downstream restocking willingness has weakened, and domestic social inventories have started to rise, limiting the upward space for copper prices [5]. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints still exist, and inventories are at a low level, supporting the bottom of copper prices. It is expected that copper will show high - level oscillation in the short term [5]. 3.2 Alumina - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina dropped by 15 yuan to 3,280 yuan, and the national weighted index dropped by 41.4 yuan to 3,260.8 yuan. An electrolytic aluminum plant in the northwest region tendered to purchase 10,000 tons of alumina, and a plant in Guangxi purchased 2,000 tons. Indonesia's Bintan Alumina Company's Phase III project entered the trial production stage, and a mining license in Guinea was revoked [5]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, there is no shortage of ore. With the repair of previous spot - futures profits, an increase in operating capacity and an inventory inflection point are expected. Long - term news is frequent, but the impact is expected to be limited if not fermented on the basis of red mud. The market has relatively fully priced in the news of the revoked mining license in Guinea and is becoming desensitized to it [5][6]. - **Outlook**: The logic of near - month production resumption is more certain than that of far - month ore supply. Given the current back structure, consider rolling into 7 - 9/7 - 1 reverse spreads. Aggressive investors can short contract 07 on rallies [6]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the average price of SMM Shanghai aluminum ingot spot was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. As of June 9, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas in China was 477,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 129,500 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons. Some electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Sichuan are resuming production [7]. - **Main Logic**: Trump's increase in steel and aluminum tariffs has intensified global trade tensions. On the supply side, the spot price of upstream alumina has declined, and the profit of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has remained high. Overseas, the import of electrolytic aluminum into China is at a loss, and the supply growth space is limited. On the demand side, downstream demand has strengthened. In the long - term, domestic supply pressure is limited, and demand is expected to be cautiously optimistic, with the aluminum market in a tight - balance state [8]. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand has slightly increased, and it is expected that inventories will decline in the future. It is recommended to go long on dips, and aluminum prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of Baotai ADC12 remained unchanged at 19,400 yuan/ton. The SMM AOO average price was 20,160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The difference between Baotai ADC12 and AOO was - 760 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [8]. - **Main Logic**: In the short - to medium - term, the pressure of the automotive off - season is high, ADC12 is weak, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory is low with firm prices. ADC12 - AOO may still weaken. In the long - term, the demand for ADC12 is expected to seasonally recover in the third quarter, and there is an expectation of an increase in ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO [9][11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, ADC12 oscillates weakly. In the long term, ADC12 and ADC12 - AOO are expected to rise [11]. 3.5 Zinc - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 295 yuan/ton, and that of Guangdong 0 zinc was 285 yuan/ton. As of June 10, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from last Thursday. Kipushi Mine is expected to produce 50,000 - 70,000 tons of zinc concentrate [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: The US tariff policy is volatile, and macro - uncertainty remains. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, domestic zinc ore processing fees have increased, and smelters have started to make profits and increase production willingness. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, and terminal new orders are limited. In the long - term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is small, and supply will remain in oversupply [12]. - **Outlook**: After annual maintenance, zinc ingot production has increased again, downstream demand has gradually weakened, and inventories have accumulated. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term and continue to decline in the long term [12]. 3.6 Lead - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, and the difference between primary and recycled lead was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingot was 16,625 yuan, an increase of 100 yuan. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets decreased by 500 tons to 53,400 tons, and the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,198 tons [12][13]. - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount was stable, and the difference between primary and recycled lead increased slightly. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries was stable, the lead price rose, the loss of recycled lead smelting narrowed, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental inspections. On the demand side, affected by the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the operating rate of lead - acid battery manufacturers decreased last week, but the operating rate was higher than the same period in previous years due to the "trade - in" activities in the automotive and electric bicycle markets [13]. - **Outlook**: After the Geneva negotiations, Sino - US tariffs have decreased significantly. In terms of supply and demand, the demand off - season has arrived, and battery dealers' finished product inventories are high, but the electric bicycle market's "trade - in" activities may keep the battery factory operating rate better than in previous years. The supply of lead ingots may remain stable this week. The price of waste batteries is likely to rise, and the cost of recycled lead provides high - level support. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [14][15]. 3.7 Nickel - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME nickel inventory was 198,126 tons, a decrease of 966 tons from the previous trading day, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,041 tons, a decrease of 151 tons. Indonesia and France agreed to strengthen cooperation in key minerals, and BHP renewed an exploration agreement in Norway. Indonesia plans to reduce fuel imports from Singapore and has proposed a strategy to stabilize mineral and coal prices. The production of hydroxide precipitates in Indonesia's Morowali Industrial Park has declined [15][16][17]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the static valuation of the market is stable. The industrial fundamentals are showing marginal weakness. The ore end is relatively strong, but the rainy season may restrict raw materials. The production of intermediate products has recovered, the price of nickel salts has slightly declined, the profit of salt factories has slightly improved, and the production of nickel sulfate from nickel beans is still at a loss. The supply of electrolytic nickel is in serious excess, and inventories have accumulated significantly [18]. - **Outlook**: The US reciprocal tariffs have led to a systematic price decline. In the long term, short on rallies. In the short term, nickel prices will oscillate widely [18]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **Current Situation**: The latest stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 120,039 tons, a decrease of 1,624 tons from the previous trading day. On June 10, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless steel main contract was 540 yuan/ton. In May, the national nickel pig iron production increased, and it is expected to decrease in June. The production of high - carbon ferrochrome increased in May. The national stainless steel production decreased slightly in May [20][21]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has declined slightly, and the price of ferrochrome has weakened marginally. The 300 - series stainless steel is still in an inverted situation, putting pressure on steel mills. In May, stainless steel production decreased slightly, and it is expected to further decrease in June. Demand is gradually moving out of the peak season, and there is a risk of weakening apparent demand. The social inventory has decreased, and the warehouse receipt reduction is significant, alleviating the structural oversupply pressure [22]. - **Outlook**: The cost side still supports steel prices, but the market's acceptance of prices is limited. Demand moving out of the peak season also puts pressure on steel prices. Future focus should be on inventory changes and cost - side changes. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.9 Tin - **Current Situation**: On June 10, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons to 2,415 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 38 tons to 6,866 tons. The Shanghai tin open interest increased by 107 lots to 50,717 lots. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingot was 264,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton [22][23]. - **Main Logic**: The previous sharp decline in tin prices may be due to short - sellers entering the market in advance under long - term pessimistic expectations, and the rumor of Wa State's resumption of production was just a trigger. In the short term, after the over - decline and the news of a slow resumption of production, the price rebounded. With Wa State's tin production not yet resumed, the domestic ore supply is tight, and the supply - demand fundamentals of tin are resilient. However, the easing of supply - side disturbances and the less - optimistic long - term demand outlook limit the upward elasticity of tin prices [23]. - **Outlook**: News from Wa State has increased tin price volatility. The tight ore supply provides support for tin prices. Whether the tight ore supply can further accelerate the transmission to the ingot end will determine the height of tin prices in June. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [23].

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/6/10 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 环比 | 最新 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 19,980.00 184,305.00 | -45.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) +2633.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 2,886.00 294,852.00 | -6.00↓ -6191.00↓ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 100.00 | +5.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 112.00 | +34.00↑ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,483.00 | +31 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks a significant step in supporting China's "dual carbon" strategy and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the aluminum industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Development - Seven contracts for casting aluminum alloy futures were listed with a benchmark price of 18,365 yuan/ton [1]. - The demand for casting aluminum alloys is increasing due to the rapid development of industries such as new energy vehicles, necessitating better price risk management for related enterprises [1][2]. - The "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Aluminum Industry (2025-2027)" aims to enhance the resilience and safety of the supply chain, with a target of increasing domestic bauxite resources by 3%-5% and achieving a recycled aluminum output of over 15 million tons by 2027 [1]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The production of recycled aluminum is rising globally and in China, while domestic primary aluminum production is nearing a ceiling of 45 million tons, limiting growth potential [2]. - The demand for low-carbon materials in sectors like automotive, construction, and photovoltaics is driving the application ratio of recycled aluminum, particularly in high-performance areas such as new energy vehicles and rail transit [2]. - The futures market's price discovery function is expected to guide recycled resources towards high-efficiency and high-value-added sectors, promoting the standardization and scaling of the recycling system [2]. Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The relationship between recycled aluminum and primary aluminum prices is characterized by a "cost anchoring" and "demand elasticity" dynamic, with primary aluminum currently serving as the pricing benchmark [3]. - As the circular economy deepens, recycled aluminum is anticipated to develop an independent pricing system centered around carbon value, moving away from being shadow-priced by primary aluminum [3]. - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options fills a gap in the domestic recycled metal derivatives market, enhancing the transparency and efficiency of the pricing mechanism for casting aluminum alloys [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The US economy shows some resilience with the May unemployment rate in line with expectations and non - farm payrolls slightly exceeding expectations, leading to a reduced expectation of interest rate cuts and a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The ongoing US - Japan trade negotiations have no results, and internal US uncertainties are increasing, which is expected to have a significant impact on the global economy [6]. - Overseas tariff policies and US internal instability factors are increasing, which will likely affect global assets. In the short term, the market will return to fundamentals. Domestically, demand is entering the off - season, putting upward pressure on prices in the medium term. However, the social inventory is decreasing and at a low level, and spot merchants are eager to support prices, with high premiums providing strong support for the market. It is expected that the main 07 contract will fluctuate within the range of 19,600 - 20,200 yuan/ton, with a higher probability of short - term weakness. Attention should be paid to the long - short game around 20,000, and industrial players are advised to purchase as needed [8]. Alumina - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May, the in - production capacity increased by 2.1 million tons month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly. The domestic arrival volume of ore remained normal, and the departure volume from Guinea was also normal [9]. - In April 2025, China's alumina net exports were 249,300 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease, with 13 consecutive months of net exports. Import shifted to a small profit [9]. Demand - The in - production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly and remained at a high level, so the short - term demand for alumina was relatively stable [9]. Profit - The current smelting cost of alumina is 3,046 yuan per ton, with a profit of 269 yuan per ton. The cost increased slightly, and the profit decreased slightly. The latest price of caustic soda is 3,730 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 30 yuan/ton [9]. Suggestion - The impact of Guinea's ore - end policy on sentiment has eased, and the market has fallen after a surge. It is recommended to take a long - position in the 09 contract on dips and a short - position in the 07 contract on rallies. The position volume of the variety is 450,000 lots, with 320,000 lots in the 09 contract. Although the funds have flowed out compared to the previous week, the volume is still relatively high, and large fluctuations are expected [9]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamental Summary Supply - In May 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum in - production capacity was 44.139 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% and a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.22%, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In April, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports increased significantly both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import in April was 236,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30,600 tons and a month - on - month increase of 23,700 tons [54][56]. - In April, China's scrap aluminum imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% and a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons. The cumulative scrap aluminum imports from January to April were 697,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7% [63]. Demand - In April 2025, China's aluminum product output was 5.764 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The cumulative output this year was 21.117 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [65]. - In April 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 1.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%. The cumulative output this year was 5.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.7% [68]. Cost - The domestic alumina spot price declined slightly from the high level and remained volatile at a high level, while the overseas spot price was stable in the short term [71]. - The pre - baked anode price was 5,675 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 15 yuan/ton, about 0.26% [74]. - The price of dry - process aluminum fluoride was 9,710 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 230 yuan/ton, about 2.3%. The price of cryolite was 8,520 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 260 yuan/ton, about 3.15% [77]. Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost is 17,021 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The overall profit is 3,279 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 54 yuan/ton [80]. - The current import loss of electrolytic aluminum is 1,132 yuan/ton, a weekly slight narrowing of 5 yuan/ton [83]. Inventory - As of June 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 503,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 6,000 tons and a decrease of 17,000 tons within the week. The inventory is at a historically low level, and the de - stocking speed has slowed down [86]. Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China is in the range of 20,100 - 20,340 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price fluctuates with the market, and as downstream demand enters the off - season, the upward pressure on prices increases, and the spot premium decreases slightly. However, due to the low social inventory, spot merchants still have the will to support prices [92].

Core Viewpoint - Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH) is a pioneer in the green, intelligent, and digital transformation of the domestic aluminum industry, particularly focusing on green development through initiatives like 500,000 tons/year of green low-carbon hydropower aluminum and distributed photovoltaic projects [1][2] Group 1: Project Developments - The company’s subsidiary, Sichuan Zhongfu, signed an investment cooperation agreement with Penghui Energy to build a large-scale user-side energy storage project in Guangyuan Economic and Technological Development Zone, which includes a first phase of 100MW/400MWh and a second phase of 300MW/600MWh [1] - The first phase will become the largest user-side energy storage project in the country, significantly enhancing both companies' brand influence and market voice in the green energy sector [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Impact - Recent national and provincial policies supporting new energy and storage development will enhance the peak-shaving capacity of the North Sichuan power grid, alleviating power shortages during peak summer periods and ensuring stable energy supply for the company’s aluminum production [2] - The project aligns with local government policies and has received strong support, indicating a promising outlook for the company’s energy supply stability in Guangyuan [2] Group 3: Future Collaborations and Innovations - Sichuan Zhongfu and Penghui Energy will collaborate on solid-state battery research and efficient discharge technology for traditional storage, aiming to create a second growth curve while accumulating low-carbon technologies and developing low-carbon products [2] - The company is also advancing another integrated source-grid-load-storage project in Henan, which is set to install approximately 22.98MWp of photovoltaic capacity by the end of May 2025 [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - The short - term fundamentals change little. The nickel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production cut rhythm [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still have pressure. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be weak and operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [5]. Tin - The short - term supply - side tightness boosts the tin price. Consider shorting on rallies above 260,000, and pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm [7]. Alumina - If the mine - end situation does not further ferment, the alumina price will be under pressure, with the lower reference cash cost of 2,700. Attention should be paid to domestic enterprise capacity changes and imported supply [8]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate, with the operating range of 19,000 - 21,000. Attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [8]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,500. Pay attention to zinc ore production growth and downstream demand changes [10]. Copper - The short - term copper price will fluctuate. The main focus is on the pressure level of 78,000 - 79,000. The downward space depends on real demand weakness, and the upward space depends on tariff expectation reversal or US economic risk release [13]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.47% to 123,425 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 0.42% to 124,575 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel rose 0.51% to 122,425 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton and 13,050 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 fell 0.08% to 60,250 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate均价 fell 0.09% to 58,650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin rose 2.04% to 255,500 yuan/ton; Yangtze 1 tin rose 2.03% to 256,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.80% to 20,280 yuan/ton; Yangtze aluminum A00 rose 0.80% to 20,270 yuan/ton [8]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.53% to 22,910 yuan/ton; SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) rose 0.66% to 22,810 yuan/ton [10]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.05% to 78,485 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.15% to 78,295 yuan/ton [13]. Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production - Integrated MHP production cost of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton; integrated high - matte production cost of electrolytic nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. New Energy Material Prices - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,915 yuan/ton; battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.33% to 60,700 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - **Nickel**: 2507 - 2508 spread rose to - 220 yuan/ton from - 250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2507 - 2508 spread rose to - 25 yuan/ton from - 42 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to - 40 yuan/ton from 40 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to - 400 yuan/ton from - 240 yuan/ton [7]. - **Aluminum**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 90 yuan/ton from 130 yuan/ton [8]. - **Zinc**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 335 yuan/ton from 390 yuan/ton [10]. - **Copper**: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 150 yuan/ton from 290 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons; refined nickel imports increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: May's lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons; demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons [5]. - **Tin**: April's tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons; SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons [7]. - **Aluminum**: May's alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [8]. - **Zinc**: May's refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons; April's refined zinc imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons [10]. - **Copper**: May's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons; April's electrolytic copper imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons [13].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options on June 10 marks the introduction of China's first recycled metal futures product, aimed at enhancing the recycling market and supporting the green transformation of the aluminum industry [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Development - The casting aluminum alloy is primarily made from recycled aluminum, which is crucial for energy conservation and emission reduction, aligning with global low-carbon transformation efforts in the aluminum industry [1]. - China has established a complete aluminum industry chain, from bauxite to recycled aluminum, and the introduction of these futures will help create a standardized and transparent pricing mechanism [1][2]. Group 2: Market Demand and Risk Management - The rapid development of the aluminum industry, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, has increased the demand for casting aluminum alloys, leading to a stronger need for price risk management among related enterprises [2]. - The new futures and options will provide effective tools for enterprises to manage price risks and stabilize operations, while also expanding their physical delivery channels for smoother sales and procurement [2]. Group 3: Contract Specifications - The trading unit for casting aluminum alloy futures is set at 10 tons per contract, with a delivery unit of 30 tons per standard warehouse receipt, requiring adjustments to be in multiples of 3 contracts [3]. - The issuance of VAT invoices will be managed between buyers and sellers, with specific timelines for invoice delivery and dispute resolution responsibilities outlined for both parties [3]. Group 4: Future Market Development - The Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to enhance market cultivation and research, aiming to align closely with market demands to promote the effective functioning of casting aluminum alloy futures and options [3].

Group 1: Overview of the Casting Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy is the most widely used non-ferrous metal material in China, primarily composed of aluminum with added metal or non-metal elements to enhance its properties [5] - The industry is divided into primary aluminum alloys and recycled aluminum alloys, with the latter being produced from scrap aluminum [5] - ADC12 is a key grade of recycled casting aluminum alloy, accounting for approximately 10% of the total primary aluminum production [5][7] Group 2: Recycled Aluminum Alloy Industry Chain - The upstream of the recycled aluminum alloy industry chain consists of scrap aluminum recycling enterprises, with sources mainly from construction, transportation, and electrical sectors [6] - The midstream involves recycled aluminum production companies that process scrap aluminum into alloy ingots through various stages [6] - The downstream market sees recycled aluminum primarily in the form of casting aluminum alloy ingots, which are used extensively in the automotive sector [6] Group 3: Supply Situation of Scrap Aluminum in China - Domestic scrap aluminum supply is primarily sourced from old materials, with an expected total supply exceeding 12 million tons by 2024 [20][21] - The recycling system in China is still developing, with a need for more large-scale and professional recycling enterprises to stabilize supply channels [25] - The import of scrap aluminum has been subject to policy adjustments, with a significant increase in imports expected in 2024 [29][30] Group 4: Supply and Demand Status of Casting Aluminum Alloys - The production of recycled aluminum is projected to grow, with a target of 11.5 million tons by 2025 [37] - The demand for casting aluminum alloys is heavily driven by the automotive industry, which utilizes aluminum for weight reduction and fuel efficiency [54][56] - The current production capacity of recycled casting aluminum alloys is around 1.2 million tons, with ADC12 accounting for a significant portion of this production [38] Group 5: Price Trends of Casting Aluminum Alloys - The price of ADC12 generally follows the trend of primary aluminum prices, with a strong correlation observed [71] - The industry has faced low profit margins due to overcapacity, with average profits reported at -25 yuan per ton in 2024 [71] - The introduction of futures contracts for casting aluminum alloys is expected to enhance price discovery and provide risk management tools for market participants [78] Group 6: Futures Contract Details - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch a futures contract for casting aluminum alloys on June 10, 2025, with specific trading parameters outlined [79][80] - The contract will have a trading unit of 10 tons and a minimum price fluctuation of 5 yuan per ton [80] - Delivery will be based on specific quality standards, ensuring compliance with established chemical composition requirements [82]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant transformation and digitalization occurring within the aluminum industry, particularly showcased at the Binzhou Aluminum Expo [3][13] - The 2025 Binzhou Aluminum Expo, held from September 11-13, featured over 500 exhibitors and covered an exhibition area of 25,000 square meters, serving as a key platform for observing the intelligent transformation of the aluminum industry [3][13] - The expo demonstrated a shift from traditional manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing, emphasizing the integration of digital technologies in the aluminum production process [3][11] Group 2 - The Binzhou Aluminum Expo is positioned as a "testbed for industry intelligence," driven by technological iteration and practical application across the aluminum industry [3][7] - The event showcased a complete chain from raw materials to research and development, manufacturing, and testing, highlighting the digital linkage from material design to finished product manufacturing [7] - Discussions on the construction of digital twin systems for the aluminum industry were held, promoting the application of virtual simulation technology in production line planning [7][11] Group 3 - The expo facilitated a collaborative ecosystem between emerging companies and industry leaders, creating a "dual matrix of intelligent manufacturing" that fosters innovation [11] - The collaboration led to the development of an "aluminum processing technology knowledge base," which utilizes machine learning to integrate production data and significantly shorten new product development cycles [11] - The event underscored the necessity of intelligent transformation in the aluminum industry, marking it as an inevitable trend integrated into every production phase [13]