1. 5月5日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.62%，标普500指数期货跌0.77%，纳指期货跌 0.95%。 盘前市场动向 4000美元!高盛重申"金牛"预测。受美元走软支撑，黄金周一走强。截至发稿，黄金期货涨超2%，报约3325美元/盎司;黄金现货 涨超2%，报约3317美元/盎司。黄金价格今年迄今已飙升近四分之一，4月曾触及每盎司3500美元以上的纪录高位，但在过去几 周有所回落，早些时候的上涨主要由特朗普极具破坏性的贸易和地缘政治政策引发的避险买盘、投机性需求和全球央行的买盘 推动。周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因此，该行预计白银 不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到 3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 欧佩克+增产暴击油价至四年低位，华尔街紧急下调预期。沙特主导的激进举措正在重塑全球石油市场格局——通过欧佩克+大 幅增产，这一行动正迫使华尔街分析师纷纷下调油 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the media industry, particularly focusing on the recovery of the film and gaming sectors, and emphasizes the importance of AI applications in the industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The film market showed a slight decline during the May Day holiday, with a total box office of 657 million yuan, down 46% year-on-year. However, the overall outlook for the year remains optimistic due to a rich supply of quality content from major domestic and international studios [2][3]. - The media sector is experiencing a resurgence, with the overall media index rising by 2.69% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.13% [12][10]. - The report highlights the importance of AI applications in reshaping the industry landscape, with a focus on the integration of AI in various sectors, including gaming and education [8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media index increased by 2.69% last week, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.43%, indicating strong performance in the media sector [12][10]. - The gaming market remains robust, with Tencent's products dominating the iOS best-seller list, showcasing the company's leading position in the industry [21][22]. Film Market - As of May 2, 2025, the film market has achieved a total box office of 23.443 billion yuan, recovering approximately 103% compared to the same period in 2019 [24][25]. - The top-performing films during the recent week included "Water Dumpling Queen," which generated a box office of 103.17 million yuan, accounting for 24% of the total box office [31][32]. AI Applications - The report emphasizes the growing significance of AI in the media industry, with companies like Tencent restructuring their AI development teams to enhance capabilities in large language models and multimodal models [35][36]. - The report suggests that AI applications will play a crucial role in transforming traditional media and entertainment sectors, with a focus on interactive entertainment and educational tools [8][9]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Shanghai Film, Wanda Film, and Maoyan Entertainment, which are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in the film market [2][3]. - In the gaming sector, companies like Huya, Perfect World, and G-bits are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong product pipelines and market positions [8][9].

Core Insights - The "May Day" holiday saw a vibrant revival in the cultural and tourism market across China, with emerging trends focusing on immersive experiences, AI integration, and therapeutic activities [1][10] Group 1: Immersive Experiences - Various cultural markets showcased unique experiences, such as street markets in Dalian with 66 diverse stalls and over 50 engaging activities, enhancing the atmosphere for visitors [2] - The South Yue King Museum in Guangzhou transformed static exhibitions into dynamic cultural experiences through activities like Hanfu cosplay and creative markets, providing a strong sense of immersion [2] - The Hengdian Film City in Zhejiang allowed visitors to engage directly with actors, shifting the experience from passive viewing to active participation, significantly increasing engagement and enjoyment [3] Group 2: AI Integration - Technological innovations were prominent, with robots enhancing visitor experiences, such as a robot ski show in Guangzhou featuring AI dogs performing lion dances and skiing [4][5] - The introduction of robots in scenic areas, like the welcoming robots in Wenzhou's Yandang Mountain, showcased the blend of technology and nature, enhancing the overall tourist experience [7] Group 3: Therapeutic and Reverse Tourism - The trend of "reverse tourism" gained traction, with individuals opting for local nature experiences to avoid crowded tourist spots, reflecting a desire for relaxation and connection with nature [8][9] - Activities like pottery making in Longquan and leisurely coffee by the lake provided therapeutic benefits, catering to the growing demand for emotional value in tourism [9][10] - Music festivals and outdoor events in Guangdong and Zhejiang attracted younger crowds seeking emotional engagement and social relaxation, indicating a shift towards experiential consumption in the tourism sector [10]

传媒 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 4 月 29 日，上海电影旗下《中国奇谭》IP 首部喜剧电影《浪浪山小妖怪》宣布 定档 8 月 2 日，讲述小猪妖离开浪浪山开启全新"妖生"，组建史上最"潦草" 取经团开启西行的故事；此外，中文在线 4 月 29 日亦宣布旗下国漫 IP 大电影《罗 小黑战记 2》将于 2025 年暑期上映，后续值得期待的动画电影还包括果麦文化、 光线传媒联合出品的《三国的星空》等。根据猫眼专业版，截至 5 月 4 日 20 点， 已上映超过 3 个月的《哪吒之魔童闹海》在五一档期仍实现超过 5700 万票房， 上座率超过除《幽灵公主》之外的五一档新片，全球累计票房已超过 158 亿元， 持续验证头部国漫 IP 及动画电影的强大票房号召力。我们认为，暑期档国漫 IP 动画电影票房值得期待，建议继续布局国漫 IP 产业链，重点推荐上海电影，受 益标的包括果麦文化、中文在线、光线传媒等。 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 传媒 沪深300 相关研究报告 《积极关注高景气社交出海 ...

传媒 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 传媒 沪深300 相关研究报告 《积极关注高景气社交出海、Agent 及 多 模 态 AI 应 用 — 行业周报》 -2025.4.27 《MCP 及政策助力 AI 发展，继续关 注高景气 IP 赛道—行业点评报告》 -2025.4.21 《多模态 AI 突破不止，政策暖风持续 助力 IP、体验消费—行业周报》 -2025.4.13 模型迭代、国漫电影上新持续推进，继续布局 AI、IP ——行业周报 | 方光照（分析师） | 田鹏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | fangguangzhao@kysec.cn | tianpeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030004 | 证书编号：S0790523090001 | 阿里通义、DeepSeek 模型再迭代，纳米 AI 引领 Agent 突破，继续布局 AI 4 月 29 日，阿里通义千问模型 Qwen3 正式开源，其采用 MoE 架构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed 100% tariff on foreign-made films by the Trump administration has sparked strong reactions from international communities, particularly from Australia and New Zealand, who are committed to protecting their film industries [1][3]. Group 1: Government Reactions - The Australian Minister for Home Affairs, Tony Burke, stated that discussions have taken place regarding the U.S. tariff measures, emphasizing the commitment to protect Australia's film industry [1]. - New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins expressed that the government is closely monitoring the details of the proposed tariffs and will advocate for the film industry [3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - Analysts warn that the tariff could severely damage the U.S. film and cultural industry, with William Reinsch, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, stating that the disadvantages of such tariffs outweigh the benefits [3]. - Trump claims that the U.S. film industry is in rapid decline due to foreign incentives attracting American filmmakers abroad, which he argues poses a national security threat [3]. - Reports indicate that many U.S. film companies have been producing films in countries like the UK, Australia, Canada, Ireland, and Spain to reduce costs, suggesting that the tariff could have significant repercussions for the U.S. entertainment industry [3].

澳大利亚内政部长：我们将坚决维护澳大利亚影视产业的权益。 ...

每经记者 杜蔚 每经编辑 张海妮 编者按： 每日经济新闻推出短视频访谈节目《AI煮酒》，邀请中国传媒大学视听艺术研究中心主任、博导赵 晖，短剧《午后玫瑰》总制片人赵聪，资深娱评人、《短剧新圈》主编高庆秀，以及相关影视行业大咖 与人工智能行业新秀，围绕短剧与AI（人工智能），探讨技术从制作到宣发为全产业链带来的潜力空 间。 《中国网络视听发展研究报告（2025）》显示，截至2024年12月，短剧用户规模已经达到6.62亿，仅半 年时间，短剧独立应用的人均单日使用时长从90分钟增长至101分钟，已追平即时通信类应用的使用时 长。 赵晖教授表示，短剧通过"碎片化时间占据+情感化内容供给"的模式，契合了当代观众的收看需求，强 化了陪伴属性。 以爆款短剧《午后玫瑰》为例，该剧聚焦中年女性重返职场这一社会议题，实现了内容与用户情感的深 度共振，证明短剧具备承载复杂主题、引发社会讨论的能力。短剧正从娱乐消费品升级为社会情绪载 体。 赵聪指出，在演员生态方面，短剧能为更多的创作者提供机会。相较影视剧明星演员的高额片酬，短剧 更注重角色适配度。李若彤在剧中的反响和成功，印证了短剧能为新人与转型演员提供广阔空间，构建 更具包容性 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry [6][10][22] Core Viewpoints - The media sector is expected to benefit from AI applications, with policies supporting the development of AI technologies [5][20] - The first quarter of 2025 shows a recovery trend in the media sector, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit [16][18] - The film market is projected to face challenges, with lower ticket sales compared to previous years, emphasizing the need for quality content to drive audience engagement [17][31] Summary by Sections Industry Overview and Dynamics - The media industry has experienced a mixed performance, with the AI wearable device index showing significant gains while the Disney index has declined [15] - The overall net profit for the A-share media and internet sector decreased by 57% in 2024, but a 46% increase was observed in the first quarter of 2025 [16] Key Recommendations - Specific stocks recommended include: - Windy Zhi (603466) - Strong performance in Q1 2025 - Mango Super Media (300413) - Upcoming show "Singer 2025" scheduled for May 16 - BlueFocus Communication Group (300058) - Benefiting from Microsoft's digital marketing initiatives [6][10] Film Market Insights - The film market's performance during the May Day holiday showed a significant decline in both box office revenue and ticket sales compared to the previous year [17][31] - The report highlights the importance of quality content in driving audience demand, with upcoming summer releases being crucial for recovery [17] Game Industry Progress - The Chinese gaming market generated revenues of 857.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 17.99% [21] - New game releases are expected to contribute positively to market growth [21] AI Applications in Media - The integration of AI technologies is seen as a transformative factor for various sectors, including digital marketing and content creation [20] - Companies like Tencent and Alibaba are heavily investing in AI, which is expected to enhance their operational capabilities [20]

Group 1 - The film "The Vast Horizon is My Love" is set to be released during the May Day holiday in 2025, with filming locations spanning over 40 regions from Inner Mongolia to Hunan, which are now promoting tourism routes themed around the movie [1] - Qingxi Village in Hunan, a filming location for the movie, has introduced a new interactive experience combining literature and performance, allowing visitors to engage with the story and enjoy immersive literary experiences [3] - The integration of film and tourism has boosted local consumption, with discounts offered to tourists holding movie tickets at various attractions during the holiday [5] Group 2 - In Quanzhou, visitors often purchase local cultural and creative products as souvenirs, enhancing their experience of the film's landmarks [6] - Popular tourist spots in Quanzhou, such as the East and West Towers and Zhonglou, frequently see visitors taking photos with local creative products, showcasing a new way to engage with the city [9] - A local creative store in Quanzhou has developed 300 unique products inspired by local culture, with one popular item selling over 500 units in a single day during the holiday [12] Group 3 - The holiday period has seen a surge in diverse cultural tourism experiences, including VR viewing, industrial heritage tours, and technology-driven light shows, stimulating the holiday economy [15] - The introduction of a composite VR cinema in Beijing's 798 Cultural Park offers immersive experiences across various themes, attracting consumers [18] - Industrial tourism is gaining popularity, with cultural districts in old industrial cities like Hengyang and Chongqing drawing visitors through a blend of retro industrial aesthetics and modern culture [20] Group 4 - Night tourism is on the rise in Jiangsu's Huai'an, featuring immersive night tours combined with technology-driven light shows, creating a captivating visual experience for visitors [23] - A cultural event in Xi'an, featuring a large-scale performance of traditional Qin opera, showcases the region's rich cultural heritage and attracts both locals and tourists [26]