2026年01月28日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：油粕比交易思路维持 | 2 | | 豆粕：美元偏弱、美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：窄幅整理 | 7 | | 棉花：维持偏强震荡20260128 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：节前旺季现货偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：需求表现不及预期，关注供应矛盾 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2026 年 01 月 28 日 棕榈油：高位波动加剧，关注前高压力 豆油：油粕比交易思路维持 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,238 | 涨跌幅 1.61% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,218 | 涨跌幅 -0.22% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and as the sugar price drops to a low level, the short - term downward space may be limited. It is advisable to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the new - year planting area and the positive future macro - economic expectations, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the excessive short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [10]. - For protein meal, affected by the sudden news from Canada, the rapeseed meal price rebounded. The January USDA report data was slightly bearish as the production forecasts of the US and Brazil increased slightly month - on - month, and the US export volume decreased slightly. But the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/2025 season. From the weekly sample data, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the protein meal price may be bottoming out [14]. - For oils and fats, affected by the sudden news from Canada and the year - on - year decline in the palm oil production in Malaysia in January, the oil and fat prices rose significantly yesterday. On the other hand, the inventories of the three major domestic oils and fats have been decreasing month - on - month. The short - term fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then try to go long [19]. - For eggs, the pre - holiday stocking sentiment has boosted the spot price increase beyond expectations. The near - month contracts are driven to fluctuate strongly, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the demand - side expectations are about to be realized. The near - month contracts have post - holiday characteristics and may fluctuate. In the future, more attention should be paid to the pressure after the rebound. The far - end contracts are affected by the peak of production capacity and have long - term positive expectations, but after giving profits too early, the realization path is still uncertain. Pay attention to the selling pressure after the over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, the demand support and the market's reluctant - to - sell sentiment caused by the high fat - to - standard pig price difference support the limited short - term decline of the spot price. However, the expectation of inventory accumulation and the upcoming pre - holiday supply release have led to the early weakness of the futures market. Considering the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival in the first half of the year and the expectation of inventory postponement, the futures discount is logical. There may still be short - selling opportunities after the rebound. Due to the limited reduction of production capacity, the improvement space of the far - end fundamentals has been revised down. Pay attention to the support at the lower level after the long - term decline [24]. Summary by Category Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,168 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton or 0.08% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,250 - 5,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - According to UNICA data, in the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar output was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/2026 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder. In 2025, the cumulative imports were 1.1888 million tons. According to the data released by the Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), as of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar output had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 14,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan/ton or 0.58% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 15,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - According to the data released by the Brazilian National Supply Company (Conab), as of January 24, the planting rate of cotton in the 2025/2026 season in Brazil was 60.6%, compared with 36.3% in the previous week, 46.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 40.9%. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, as of the week of January 23, the operating rate of spinning mills was 64.6%, unchanged from the previous week and an increase of 26.1 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.7 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons year - on - year. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December forecast, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons; the production forecast for India was reduced by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons; the production forecast for China was increased by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. According to USDA data, from January 8 to January 15, the US current - year cotton export sales were 97,300 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.72 million tons, a decrease of 166,000 tons year - on - year; among them, the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 88,600 tons, a decrease of 72,100 tons year - on - year [7][9]. Protein Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, the protein meal futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2,271 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.09% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of soybean meal in Dongguan was reported at 3,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Huangpu was reported at 2,470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [12]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to USDA export sales data, from January 8 to January 15, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 33.03 million tons; among them, the US exported 1.3 million tons of soybeans to China in that week, and the current - year cumulative exports to China were 9.42 million tons. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.47 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample soybean port inventory was 7.21 million tons, a decrease of 500,000 tons compared with the previous week; the sample oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 810,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons compared with the previous week. According to USDA data, the January forecast for the 2025/2026 global soybean production was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared with December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous season. Among them, the January forecast for US soybean production was 115.99 million tons, an increase of 238,000 tons compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 3.05 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Brazilian production was 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 6.5 million tons compared with the previous season; the January forecast for Argentine production was 48.5 million tons, unchanged compared with the December forecast and a decrease of 2.6 million tons compared with the previous season. In addition, in the January forecast, the US export volume decreased slightly by 1.63 million tons to 42.86 million tons compared with the December forecast [13]. Oils and Fats Market Information - On Tuesday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8,258 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton or 0.39% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 9,238 yuan/ton, an increase of 146 yuan/ton or 1.61% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9,326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was reported at 8,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was reported at 9,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was reported at 10,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [16]. - According to foreign media reports, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said that after President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff, he did not plan to sign any trade agreements with China. According to the data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the production of crude palm oil in Malaysia from January 1 to 20 decreased by 14.43% compared with the same period of the previous month. According to MYSTEEL data, from January 16 to January 23, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats decreased slightly by 30,000 tons to 1.95 million tons. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. The deputy minister of the Indonesian Ministry of Energy said that Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year (i.e., the B50 plan) and will maintain the current B40 plan. According to USDA data, the January forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous season. According to the data of the Indian Solvent Extractors' Association, India's total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November [16][18]. Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable in some areas and rose in others. The average price in the main production areas increased by 0.08 yuan to 3.92 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan increased by 0.1 yuan to 3.6 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao increased by 0.11 yuan to 3.62 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui increased by 0.07 yuan to 3.96 yuan/jin. The supply was normal, the overall market digestion was okay, and most industry players purchased and sold according to the market trend. Most industry players still had a bullish sentiment, and it is expected that the national egg price may rise in most areas and remain stable in a few areas in the short term [21][25]. Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally declined. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.06 yuan to 13.18 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 12.67 yuan/kg. The slaughtering enthusiasm of the northern breeding side was okay, but there was a certain reluctance to sell in the low - price areas, and the decline of the pig price may narrow. The southern breeding side was active in slaughtering, the market demand was average, and under the influence of oversupply, the pig price may continue to decline [23].

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月27日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨，大 豆期货涨0.54%报1067.50美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌0.41%报426.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨0.19%报 523.50美分/蒲式耳。 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月27日，洲际交易所（ICE）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，原糖期货涨 0.27%报14.83美分/磅，棉花期货涨1.29%报63.78美分/磅，可可期货涨1.66%报4420.00美元/吨，咖啡期 货涨3.72%报369.50美分/磅。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton sales progress remains fast, and the sales volume is at a high level in the same period over the years. The improvement of Sino-US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills in the new year support the fundamental upward trend. However, the previous bullish sentiment has been digested, and the cotton price has corrected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. The cotton yarn market continues to be weak in the short term. [6][10] - For trading strategies, it is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate within a range. For arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see. [8][9][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 150, 45, and 55 respectively; CY01 remained unchanged, CY05 decreased by 30, and CY09 remained unchanged. The trading volume of CF05 increased by 154,281, and that of CY05 decreased by 195. [2] - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B decreased by 17 yuan/ton, Cot A was 74.55 cents/pound, and the price of (FC Index):M: to - port decreased by 0.40. Among yarns, CY IndexC32S remained unchanged, and the price of Indian S - 6 remained unchanged. [2] - **Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 105, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 95. In cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 30, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged. [2] Market News and Views Cotton Market News - **ON - CALL Data**: As of January 16, the number of unpriced contracts of the ON - CALL 2603 contract by sellers decreased by 477 to 19,274, equivalent to a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 2025/26 season increased by 2,449 to 40,722, equivalent to 920,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons compared to last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 52,321, equivalent to 1.19 million tons, an increase of 3,166 compared to last week, or 70,000 tons. [4] - **Brazilian Cotton Planting**: As of January 24, the cotton planting in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 60.6% completed, a 24.3 - percentage - point increase from the previous period and 14.3 percentage points faster than the same period last year, but 2 percentage points slower than the average of the past three years. [4] - **US Cotton Inspection**: As of January 23, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.9374 million tons, accounting for 96.9% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 7% slower than the same period last year. The inspection volume of US upland cotton was 2.8576 million tons, with an inspection progress of 97%, a 6% decrease year - on - year; the inspection volume of Pima cotton was 79,800 tons, with an inspection progress of 94.5%, 18% slower than the same period last year. [5] Trading Logic - The cotton sales progress is fast, and the improvement of Sino - US relations and the expected expansion of Xinjiang textile mills support the fundamental upward trend. However, the previous bullish sentiment has been digested, and the cotton price has corrected. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. [6] Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: It is expected that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short term, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to fluctuate within a range. [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. [9] - **Options**: Wait and see. [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The domestic market of pure cotton yarn has been sluggish recently, with little improvement. The price of cotton yarn is weak, and the discount for transactions continues to expand. Traders and fabric mills make small - scale purchases, and some fabric mills plan to start their holidays at the end of this month. It is expected that the trading volume will continue to decrease, and the cotton yarn market will remain weak in the short term. [10] Options - **Volatility**: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF605 - C - 14600 was 13.3%, that of CF605 - C - 14200 was 11.3%, and that of CF605 - P - 13800 was 11.2%. [12] - **Options Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is advisable to wait and see. [13][14] Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple figures, including the price difference between domestic and international cotton markets under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the price differences of CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9. [16][19][23]

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 | | | 第一部分 | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2026/1/27 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7966 | 8 | 0.10% | 27,678 | -29.47% | 39,307 | 10.59% | | PK610 | 8228 | -22 | -0.27% | 167 | -8.74% | 2,743 | -1.37% | | PK601 | 8220 | -42 | -0.51% | 17 | 750.00% | 16 | 45.45% | | | | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7400 | 8000 | 8 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-27 备货需求逐步释放，豆粕延续震荡 粕类观点 市场分析 豆粕库存持续消耗，但仍明显高于历史同期，大豆库存同样维持高位。受到美豆提振的影响，国内豆粕价格短期 同步偏强运行，但巴西新季丰产压力仍存，随着未来新季大豆上市供应压力逐步释放，预计豆粕价格仍将偏弱运 行。 策略 谨慎偏空 风险 南美收获情况 玉米观点 市场要闻与重要数据 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2605合约2769元/吨，较前日变动+18元/吨，幅度+0.65%；菜粕2605合约2269元/吨，较前 日变动+34元/吨，幅度+1.52%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3170元/吨，较前日变动-10元/吨，现货基差 M05+401，较前日变动-28；江苏地区豆粕现货3070元/吨，较前日变动+0元/吨，现货基差M05+301，较前日变动-18； 广东地区豆粕现货价格3080元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M05+311，较前日变动+2。福建地区菜粕现 货价格2480元/吨，较前日变动+40元/吨，现货基差RM05+211，较前日变动+6。 近期市场资讯，1月23日，美国农业部公布的出口销售报告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soft commodity sector, Zheng sugar's fundamentals are loose, and a sell - on - rally operation is considered for the main 05 contract; the pulp supply pressure eases, but the domestic finished paper is in the off - season, so the operation is changed from a single - sided short allocation to an interval operation; the upward space of double - offset paper futures is expected to be limited, and a short - term short operation is recommended; the cotton price may be adjusted in the short term, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 05 contract cautiously [3][4][5][6][8][9]. - For the fresh fruit and vegetable sector, the apple price may enter the support range, and a long - thinking operation is recommended; for jujubes, it is recommended to close short positions below 9000 points in the 2605 contract, and for long positions, buy protective put options [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Interval | Pressure Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Reduce long positions | Support from lower new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value year - on - year still exists, but the suppression of insufficient consumption increment drive also increases, and the near - month contract falls in the short term [19]. | 8800 - 8900 | 11000 - 11500 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips in the short term | The expectation of production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month, and the spot inventory begins to peak and decline [19]. | 8700 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Sell on rallies | The international sugar supply is sufficient, and it is the peak season for domestic sugar supply, with overall sufficient supply [19]. | 5070 - 5100 | 5270 - 5300 | | Pulp 2605 | Short in the interval | There are still long - term benefits from supply and the increase in warehouse - receipt cost, but the recent downstream performance is average, which may put some pressure on the market [19]. | 5200 - 5300 | 5550 - 5600 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Interval operation | The spot market is stable, and the basis widening provides phased support for the market. Later, the publishing orders may weaken, and it is still difficult to be optimistic about the upward height under the low capacity utilization rate [19]. | 4000 - 4100 | 4300 - 4350 | | Cotton 2605 | Reduce long positions | The long - term bullish expectation still exists, and the medium - term support is still there, but the foreign - market price is in a bottom - searching trend, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price, and the futures price enters a volatile and repeated stage in the short term [19]. | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of January 21, 2026, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas in China was 6.8278 million tons, a decrease of 218,800 tons from the previous week. As of January 22, 2026, the inventory was 6.3232 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 232,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 296,900 tons [20]. - **Spot Market**: The price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in Shandong is stable, and the packaging willingness of merchants in cold storage is okay. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the cold - storage packaging and shipment volume have increased recently. The arrival of goods in the sales area is increasing, and the sales are stable [20][21][22]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of January 11, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,300 tons, a decrease of 349 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23% and a year - on - year increase of 41.27%. The acquisition in the production area is basically over, and the market supply and demand are expected to enter a peak season with the approaching of the Lunar New Year [23]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of the week of January 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 51, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 1.7816 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 118,700 tons and an increase of 7.13%. From the second half of December, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased year - on - year. The ISMA expects the sugar consumption in India in the 2025/26 crushing season to rise slightly to 28.5 million tons [25]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The demand in the Chinese pulp market has slowed down significantly, and the futures market's shock has made traders and investors cautious. The price of the main 2026 May BSK futures contract has fallen, and the weakness has spread to the spot market. Traders expect prices to fall further and have raised the forward resale quotes [28]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market The inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% from last Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points month - on - month. The start - up load rate was 57.43%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points month - on - month, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points month - on - month [29]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In November, India's cotton imports were about 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.8% and a year - on - year increase of 94.2%. As of January 15, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 93,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21%, and the weekly shipment volume was 42,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20% [30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9466 | - 69 | - 0.72% | | Jujube 2605 | 8760 | - 40 | - 0.45% | | Sugar 2605 | 5172 | - 8 | - 0.15% | | Pulp 2605 | 5374 | - 24 | - 0.44% | | Cotton 2605 | 14650 | - 45 | - 0.31% | 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5270 | - 10 | - 640 | | Pulp (Shandong Silver Star) | 5400 | 0 | - 1150 | | Double - offset Paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15995 | 125 | 1288 | 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple May contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1191 | - 6 | 1746 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 5 - 9 | - 240 | 0 | 150 | Reverse spread on highs | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 17 | - 2 | - 154 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 155 | 10 | 0 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on highs | 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures about the top 20 long - position, short - position, and trading - volume rankings of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse - receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse - receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 3325 | 27 | - 679 | | Sugar | 13715 | - 30 | - 10413 | | Pulp | 139554 | 0 | - 197742 | | Cotton | 10144 | 172 | 3428 | 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided, only relevant figures about the trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options are mentioned.

鸡蛋：中性 主产区现货价格稳定。河北馆陶现货均价约3.51元/斤，较上一日持平。现货在前期持续强势背景下出现滞涨情况。2025年全年补栏量较24年减少约4220万 羽，但仍维持约10.15亿羽的偏高水平。偏高补栏量可能导致行业产能去化的速度出现明显放缓，现货价格的中枢抬升可能需要更长的时间。短期博弈方 面，春节备货支撑短期反弹，高位震荡下警惕节后回调风险。中长期布局，锚定存栏下降的中期逻辑，产能去化趋势确立，关注远月合约低位布局机会。关 注春节前后结构差异，春节前深化后的Contango结构存在证伪的可能性，节后可能逆转。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．昨日玉米主力最高冲至2313元/吨，收盘2393元/吨，国内企业玉米收购均价为2237元/吨，环比上涨0.49%。目前高位看多情绪高涨，虽然价格上方明显， 但周内暂无回落迹象，周内仍将维持高位震荡运行 2．乌克兰方面，截至2026年1月22日，已收获5906.7万吨谷物（含玉米），收获面积达1115万公顷（完成计划的96%），平均单产5.3吨/公顷，玉米供应充 足，短期的成本压低或对下游深加工带来利好及订单加 ...

目录 【粕类周报】供应压力好转 盘面阶段上涨 银河农产品 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 | | | 第三章 基本面数据变化 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 期权：看跌海鸥期权（观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据） 2 GALAXY FUTURES 【综合分析】 本周美豆盘面呈现小幅上涨表现，主要因前期利空因素体现比较充分后开始呈现小幅上涨表现，近期美豆上涨主要受到几方面因素影响，首先，美 豆油有所上涨，前期在生柴政策持续缺乏具体消息的情况下，美豆油走势以相对偏下行为主，虽然近期公布的生柴政策并未出现利多，但一定程度 对于整体市场产生带动。受此影响美豆也呈现偏强运行。整体来看，当前美豆市场需求表现比较一般，整体压榨方面支撑力度有限，出口新增幅度 同样比较有限。南美市场近期同样表现出一定利多，一方面巴西降 ...