Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran is in a stage of negotiation while fighting, and the short - term volatility of various assets will remain high. The A - share market is likely to maintain a volatile and weak pattern in the short term, and the bond market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. The prices of precious metals, copper, aluminum, and other commodities will be affected by the US - Iran situation and their own fundamentals [2][3]. Summary by Categories Macro - Overseas: Trump said there was "major consensus" in contact with Iran and postponed the attack on Iran's power grid and power generation facilities for 5 days, but Iran denied the contact. The risk assets that had fallen sharply were repaired, the three major US stock indexes rose, international oil prices fell more than 10%, and the yields of 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell from 4.44% to about 4.35%. The situation is still in a stage of negotiation while fighting, and the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz is the core variable for oil prices and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: A - shares opened lower and moved lower on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 3.6% to 3813 points. The short - term downward pressure on the domestic stock market may be alleviated, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak pattern. The bond market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Pay attention to the industrial enterprise profits from January to February in China this week [3]. Precious Metals - The prices of gold and silver rebounded from the low level after Trump released the signal of peace talks with Iran. However, the market still doubts whether Trump can end the conflict easily, and the TACO trading will still be repeated. It is too early to say that the adjustment is over [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper rebounded as the US - Iran conflict eased. Trump's statement led to a rebound in risk - related asset prices and a fall in the US dollar index. The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia may resume operation in 2 - 3 weeks, but the supply growth rate of concentrates this year is still low. It is expected that the copper price will turn to a rebound in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - The price of aluminum fluctuated and adjusted. The US - Iran negotiation was in a "Rashomon" situation. The market risk sentiment was released after Trump's statement, but the metal still faced pressure after a small rebound. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory began to decline slightly, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust, with limited adjustment range [8][9]. Alumina - The price of alumina fluctuated strongly in the short term. The Guinea ore export quota policy supported the cost increase of alumina, and there were news of production reduction in some areas. The fundamentals were favorable in the short term, but the upward space was limited in the medium and long term due to the planned new production capacity [10]. Cast Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum fluctuated widely. Trump's statement led to a rebound in metal prices, but the Iranian side denied the negotiation, and the metal still faced pressure. The supply of cast aluminum gradually recovered, and the consumption was weak. It is mainly adjusted by macro - sentiment [11]. Zinc - The price of zinc rebounded weakly. Trump's statement led to a reversal in the trend of stocks, precious metals, and industrial metals. The fundamentals were weakly stable, and the supply side still had pressure. The zinc price was still anchored to the macro situation, and it was expected to be under pressure [12]. Lead - The price of lead fluctuated at a low level. The high - inventory pressure was slightly relieved as downstream battery enterprises replenished at low prices. However, the supply increased marginally, and the market was expected to maintain a low - level wide - range fluctuation [14]. Tin - The price of tin rebounded weakly. Trump's statement relieved the market's concern about the escalation of the situation. The fundamentals provided weak support, and the tin price was still dominated by the geopolitical situation and was expected to remain weak [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market of lithium carbonate maintained a volatile pattern. The supply increased, the demand was rigid, and the inventory decreased slightly. Under the mismatch between macro and micro, it maintained a wide - range fluctuation [16]. Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - The futures price of steel products fluctuated. The downstream demand continued to recover, but the post - holiday resumption of work was slightly slower than last year. It is expected that the steel inventory will accelerate the de - stocking in early April, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate [18]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fluctuated strongly. The overseas shipment and arrival increased this week, and the port inventory decreased. The demand of steel mills increased, and the port inventory was expected to be de - stocked. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate strongly [19]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The futures price of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly. Affected by Trump's statement, the price rose sharply and then fell back. The upstream production was normal, the downstream demand recovered, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The price of soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and declined. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress was nearly 70%, and the short - term supply concern was relieved. The domestic oil mill's soybean inventory decreased, and the soybean meal inventory increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate and decline in the short term [21][22]. Palm Oil - The price of palm oil adjusted downward. The oil price fell sharply, and the market was affected by the US - Iran news. The domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to adjust downward in the short term [23][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. Trump stated that the US and Iran may reach an agreement within 5 days, but Iran denied having negotiations with the US [7]. - Short - term rebounds are expected in the stock index futures market, but the subsequent market trend still depends on the geopolitical situation [10]. - The ethylene market is in a situation of double - reduction in supply and demand, and the current high price may show marginal weakening [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out in the gold market, and silver has fallen from the shock platform. The prices of gold and silver have shown significant fluctuations, and ETF holdings and inventory have also changed [17]. - **Copper**: The price volatility has increased. The macro - political situation between the US and Iran has an impact, and there are also changes in production and operation in the industry, such as Zambia's plan to increase copper production and the suspension of Rio Tinto's copper mine operation [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The price has rebounded from the bottom, with changes in trading volume, position, and inventory [24]. - **Lead**: There is no clear driving force, and the price is in a shock state [27]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment [30]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory accumulation of aluminum has slowed down, alumina is in high - position shock, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [34]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum has shown some repair, and palladium is mainly in shock [37][39]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There are contradictions between the macro and ore - end in the nickel market, and the short - term long - short game has intensified. Stainless steel is suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by actual costs [42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support [50]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should focus on inventory changes, and polysilicon is in bottom - shock [55][56]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is at a high level technically, and the volatility has intensified. The driving force comes from cost and inventory structural contradictions [59]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar**: Affected by the high - sentiment of the raw material sector, they are in a shock - strengthening state [63]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Silicon iron is in a strong - shock state due to sector - sentiment resonance, and manganese silicon has high bullish sentiment, but attention should be paid to position risks [66]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The market sentiment is fermenting, and they are in a shock - strengthening state [69]. - **Steam Coal**: The sentiment is strong, and the port transaction price has moved up [73]. - **Log**: The price has rebounded with marginal strengthening [76]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA are in a short - term shock market and are still strong in the medium - term. MEG has tight supply and a strong medium - term trend [81]. - **Rubber**: It is in a wide - range shock [87]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Due to repeated geopolitical situations, it has wide - range intraday shocks [90]. - **LLDPE and PP**: For LLDPE, the reduction of derivatives continues to be realized, and cost transmission is not smooth. For PP, the C3 raw material has strong support, but the spot price follows the increase slowly [94]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is in a wide - range shock [98]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock - strengthening state [102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [107]. - **Methanol**: It is in a wide - range shock [110]. - **Urea**: It is operating within a range [116]. - **Styrene**: It is in high - position shock [120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [126]. - **LPG and Propylene**: There are still geopolitical risks in the LPG market, and supply disturbances occur frequently. Propylene has a supply reduction expectation due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [130]. - **PVC**: It is in a wide - range shock [138]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of fuel oil has declined, and short - term fluctuations continue to increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to weaken, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market maintains a downward trend [141]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is in high - position shock affected by oil prices, and soybean oil has limited upward space due to weak soybean - series drivers [170]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Overnight, US soybeans closed slightly higher, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. The spot price of soybeans follows the futures price adjustment, and the futures price is in adjustment [175]. - **Corn**: It is operating in a shock state [178]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - shock state [182]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of the external market [186]. - **Eggs**: They are in a weak - shock state [190]. - **Hogs**: The pressure in the near - term is increasing due to the approaching weight - reduction drive [193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact [197]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Geopolitical disturbances are repeated, and the market is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and freight rates [143]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Due to repeated geopolitical situations, they are in high - position fluctuations [160]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [163]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in high - position shock [167].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Positive trends: Zinc, iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, manganese silicon,动力煤, log, LPG, propylene, soda ash [17][53][57][60][67][71][127][122] - Negative trends: PX, PTA, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, eggs, live pigs [77][133][183][187] - Neutral trends: Gold, silver, copper, lead, tin, aluminum, alumina, cast aluminum alloy, platinum, palladium, nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, coke, coking coal, para-xylene, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, PVC, container shipping index (European line), staple fiber, bottle chips, offset printing paper, pure benzene, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybeans, corn, sugar, cotton, peanuts [7][11][18][21][25][29][34][42][47][61][73][79][82][86][90][95][100][103][109][113][130][135][152][155][159][162][167][170][174][178][189] 2. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by geopolitical conflicts, especially the situation between the US and Iran, which impacts energy prices and commodity supply chains [10][11][19] - Different commodities show various trends due to their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and policy influences [77][87][147] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have led to price fluctuations, with a nine - day consecutive decline in spot gold [7][9] - **Silver**: Fell from the shock platform [2] Base Metals - **Copper**: Disturbances increased, price volatility amplified, affected by geopolitical news and supply - side factors [11] - **Zinc**: Rebounded from the bottom [14] - **Lead**: Lacked clear drivers, prices fluctuated [18] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [21] - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation slowed down; alumina showed high - level fluctuations; cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum [25] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: There were contradictions between macro and ore - end factors, and short - term long - short games intensified in nickel; stainless steel was suppressed by overseas macro factors and supported by real - world costs [34] Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: Attention should be paid to the bottom support [42] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon focused on inventory changes; polysilicon showed bottom - level fluctuations [47][48] - **Iron Ore**: At a high level technically, with increased volatility [51] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by the high sentiment of the raw material sector, they showed a strong - side shock [55] - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: The sector showed resonance, with a strong - side shock, and the long - position sentiment of manganese silicon was high, but attention should be paid to position risks [58] - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Market sentiment fermented, showing a strong - side shock [61] - **动力煤**: The sentiment was strong, and port transactions moved up [65] - **Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA were in a short - term shock market and were still strong in the medium term; MEG had tight supply and a strong medium - term trend [73] - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber showed wide - range fluctuations; synthetic rubber had wide - range intraday fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [79][82] - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE saw a reduction in derivatives and poor cost transmission; PP was strongly supported by C3 raw materials, but spot prices followed the increase slowly [86] - **Caustic Soda**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [90] - **Pulp**: Showed a strong - side shock [95] - **Glass**: The price of the raw sheet was stable [100] - **Methanol**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [103] - **Urea**: Operated within a range [109] - **Styrene**: Showed high - level fluctuations [113] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changed little [120] - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG had geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances; propylene had supply reduction expectations due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [124] - **PVC**: Showed wide - range fluctuations [130] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices declined, and short - term fluctuations continued to expand; low - sulfur fuel oil continued to weaken, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to decline [133] Agricultural Products - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Showed high - level fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties [152] - **Offset Printing Paper**: It was recommended to wait and see [155] - **Pure Benzene**: Showed high - level fluctuations [159] - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil was affected by oil price disturbances and showed high - level fluctuations; soybean oil had limited upward space [162] - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, and Dalian soybean meal might fluctuate; spot soybeans adjusted prices following futures [167] - **Corn**: Operated in a fluctuating manner [170] - **Sugar**: Operated within a range [174] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [178] - **Eggs**: Showed weak - side fluctuations [182] - **Live Pigs**: The weight - reduction drive was approaching, and the near - end pressure increased [185] - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [189] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Geopolitical disturbances were repeated, and the intraday fluctuations of the EC market were greatly affected by geopolitical sentiment [135]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of escalating conflicts in the Middle East on various sectors, particularly focusing on energy prices and their implications for inflation and economic conditions in the U.S. [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude exceeding $104, potentially reaching over $119 if infrastructure is damaged [1][3] - The conflict is expected to structurally elevate energy prices, with natural gas facilities expected to remain damaged until the first half of 2027 [1][4] - Upstream companies in the oil and gas sector, such as Sinopec and CNOOC, are likely to benefit significantly from rising prices [4] Chemical and Petrochemical Industry - Companies like New Natural Gas and Yara International are highlighted as beneficiaries due to their cost structures and market positions [1][4] - The petrochemical sector is expected to see increased demand for products linked to rising oil prices, particularly in coal chemical and PVC industries [11] Construction and Power Sector - Northern International is recommended due to its exposure to rising European electricity prices and coal integration [1][5] - The nuclear power sector is gaining attention, with companies like China Nuclear Engineering expected to benefit from new pricing policies [8] Non-Ferrous Metals and Transportation - The non-ferrous metals sector is shifting towards a "full circle contraction" logic, with a focus on copper and aluminum due to their historical performance during oil crises [6] - The transportation sector is seeing a shift towards high-speed rail, which is less sensitive to oil price fluctuations, with companies like Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway being highlighted for their strong dividend policies [9][10] Coal Industry - The coking coal market is expected to see a rebound, driven by improved demand from steel production and energy replacement sentiments [13] - The thermal coal market is also showing positive trends, with recommendations for companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Shenhua Energy due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [14] Investment Strategies - The overall investment strategy emphasizes a defensive approach, focusing on high-dividend, large-cap state-owned enterprises in the construction and energy sectors [5][8] - The chemical sector is recommended for investments in companies with strong cost structures and market positions, particularly in coal chemical and sulfur industries [11] Other Important Insights - The records indicate a shift in market logic from liquidity excess to inflation concerns, with potential implications for monetary policy and economic growth [2][3] - The geopolitical tensions are expected to have long-lasting effects on energy prices and market preferences, influencing investment strategies across various sectors [1][4][5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Sector**: The metals sector is experiencing a pullback due to liquidity expectations rather than a fundamental reversal, with interest rate cuts expected to be delayed until 2027. The current phase is seen as a bottoming period for investment [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Copper, Aluminum, and Tin**: The long-term demand for these metals is driven by AI, grid modernization, and data centers. Supply constraints are due to insufficient capital expenditure, geopolitical quotas, and declining ore grades, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap [1][2]. - **Gold**: Short-term pressures on gold prices are attributed to the Fed's hawkish stance and a shift of risk-averse funds towards cash. However, the long-term upward trend is supported by global central bank gold purchases and ongoing pressures on the US debt system [1][3]. - **Lithium Materials**: Supply disruptions are increasing due to Zimbabwe's quotas and domestic environmental approvals, while strong demand from the power and storage sectors is expected to drive lithium prices up in April [1][5]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Supply reductions due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand increases are expected. High dividend-paying companies in this sector, such as China Hongqiao and Yun Aluminum, are seen as defensive and resilient [1][11]. - **Rare Earths**: The growth rate of rare earth quotas has slowed from 20% to around 5%, with stricter controls on gray production. Emerging demands from humanoid robots and other sectors are expected to tighten the supply-demand fundamentals and raise price levels [1][12][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Steel Industry**: There is a structural differentiation in steel demand, with manufacturing steel outpacing construction steel. Although iron ore freight costs have risen by about $5 due to geopolitical tensions, global oversupply is expected to mitigate its impact on steel mill profits [1][17]. - **ETF Behavior**: The behavior of gold ETF investors has significantly amplified market volatility, with a notable increase in gold purchases in 2025. This participation can lead to exaggerated price movements, creating opportunities for investors during irrational downturns [4]. - **Copper Market**: Recent price declines in copper are primarily due to macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical tensions, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [7][8]. - **Tin Market**: Recent price fluctuations in tin are influenced by limited supply growth and increased demand from downstream sectors, leading to significant inventory reductions [9]. - **Tungsten Market**: The tungsten market has shifted from rapid price increases to stabilization, influenced by supply constraints and reduced demand from steel mills [10]. Investment Recommendations - **Metals**: Focus on companies with strong fundamentals and high dividend yields in the aluminum sector, such as Yun Aluminum and China Hongqiao. In the lithium market, consider stocks like Ganfeng Lithium and Salt Lake Resources [1][5][11]. - **Rare Earths**: Invest in leading companies with full industry chain layouts, such as China Northern Rare Earth Group and China Rare Earth Holdings, as the supply-demand fundamentals are expected to tighten [14][16]. - **Steel**: Emphasize investments in manufacturing steel sectors and companies with strong profitability and dividend policies, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to Trump's statement on the productive talks between the US and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and a short - term repair of the US stock market. However, the Iranian attitude remains tough, and the Middle East situation is still highly uncertain [1][2][13][18]. - The A - share market has deeply corrected due to the escalation of the US - Iran war. Although there are rumors of progress in the US - Iran negotiations, the sustainability of the market rebound remains to be seen [3][19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by the US - Iran situation and their own fundamentals. For example, steel prices are driven by cost but lack fundamental support; coal prices are expected to rise in the short - term; copper prices are expected to maintain a wide - range shock [4][5][25][27][46]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that the US - Iran talks were "productive", causing the global market risk appetite to rebound and the US dollar index to weaken. The US - Iran war may gradually come to an end. It is expected that the US dollar will be weak in the short - term [1][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Goolsbee believes that there may be a need to raise interest rates due to the inflation shock caused by the Middle East situation. Trump released a signal of easing, and the stock market rebounded in the short - term. However, the Iranian attitude is still tough, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [15][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares have deeply corrected, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3800 points. The US - Iran war has hit the global stock market, and although there are rumors of progress in the negotiations, the sustainability of the A - share rebound remains to be seen. It is recommended to maintain a low - position to avoid risks [3][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1293 billion yuan. The war situation is complex, and it is recommended to observe more and act less [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Steel prices are oscillating strongly due to the rise in energy and coking coal prices, but the fundamental driving force is insufficient. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the increase is limited [4][24][25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on March 23. The coal price has entered a short - term upward channel due to the impact of the Middle East energy issue. It is expected that the coal price will continue to rise in early April, but the sustainability needs to be vigilant [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The Middle East conflict may cause iron ore miners to face billions of dollars in additional fuel costs. The iron ore price continues to oscillate, and the short - term trend is not clear. As the conflict continues, both supply and demand may be damaged [28][29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased slightly. The rise in shipping costs due to the Middle East conflict has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China, but there is no further upward driving force for soybean meal. It is necessary to pay attention to various uncertainties in the domestic and foreign markets [30]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In February 2026, the import volume of corn starch increased significantly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the temperature rises, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The short - term market has intensified long - short games, and the medium - to - long - term upward amplitude is restricted by demand and policies [31][32]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Platinum and palladium prices fell sharply, mainly due to the liquidity crisis. There is support at the spot end, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium - term, and reduce positions and take profits for long platinum - palladium ratio positions in the short - term [33][34]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly. The lead price has support from the cost of recycled lead, but the terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [35][36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The inventory of zinc ingots in seven places decreased. The zinc price has support from fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [37][38]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a tight balance in March - April. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction [40][41][42]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Vatican launched an initiative to encourage investors to withdraw from the mining industry. The copper price is supported by the easing of the Middle East war, but there is a risk of the situation reversing. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [43][46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand of tin are in a weak pattern, and the price is expected to operate weakly due to the continuous suppression of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [47][48][49]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump postponed the military strike against Iran for five days, causing the oil price to drop significantly. The Middle East situation is still highly uncertain, and the oil price will maintain high volatility [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the high sensitivity of the market to the geopolitical situation [54][55]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Trump's statement of forming agreement points with Iran has reduced the war premium of the fuel oil market. The short - term market uncertainty is still large [55][56][57]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea price may be affected by coal prices in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by policies. It is recommended that market participants purchase based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [58][59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in the East China main port decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene are expected to rise, and it is recommended to be long on aromatics [60][61][62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising. The supply and demand of caustic soda are improving marginally, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by the weak basis and high inventory [63][64][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the high - price resistance is obvious. The supply of PVC is expected to decrease, and the cost is rising. The PVC futures price is expected to be strong [66][67]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The last foreign - controlled terminal has withdrawn from the Chinese mainland market. The container freight rate is affected by the geopolitical situation and oil prices. It is recommended to treat the market with a strong - oscillation idea in the short - term and pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran situation and oil prices [68][69].

Market Performance - On March 23, 2026, the Beijiao Exchange 50 index decreased by 5.48%, closing at 1,244.03 points[1] - The overall trading volume on the Beijiao Exchange was 16.946 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.30%[1] - The total market capitalization of the Beijiao Exchange was 792.81 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 479.93 billion yuan[1] Industry Trends - The majority of industries on the Beijiao Exchange experienced declines, with the beauty and personal care sector dropping by 8.8% and construction materials by 7.9%[1] - The only sector that saw an increase was oil and petrochemicals, which rose by 2.5%[1] Stock Performance - Among the 300 listed companies, only 14 saw an increase, while 286 experienced declines[1] - The top gainers included *ST Yunchuang (+28.09%) and Oputai (+10.45%), while the largest decliners were Xinhengtai (-18.46%) and Zuxing New Materials (-10.52%)[1] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the Beijiao Exchange was approximately 38.72 times earnings, lower than the ChiNext and STAR Market, which had P/E ratios of 42.15 and 69.05 respectively[1] - The highest average P/E ratio was in the oil and petrochemical sector at 132.9 times[1] Risk Factors - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ (implied by the context) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is assessing the negative risks of the Middle - East war and facing stronger global liquidity constraints under potential inflation, leading to a dominant risk - averse trading sentiment [2]. - Most non - ferrous metals are affected by the war situation and macro - economic factors, showing different trends of price fluctuations, inventory changes and supply - demand relationships [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper futures closed down at 92,000 yuan. The market is evaluating the Middle - East war risks and liquidity constraints. The spot price is 92,820 yuan. The price decline led to intensive downstream point - pricing. The strong support for copper price is at 91,000 yuan, and the MA40 weekly moving average also needs attention [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China were 150 yuan, 180 yuan, and 175 yuan respectively. The inventory decreased slightly. Aluminum may remain weak until the war eases. Cast aluminum alloy's spread with Shanghai aluminum narrowed. Domestic alumina's over - supply improved slightly but may face more supply in the future and may oscillate strongly waiting for Guinea's policy [3]. Zinc - Low zinc prices stimulated downstream replenishment. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons to 255,200 tons. The price may test the smelter's cost line. It is expected to stop falling at 22,000 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and further decline needs a significant increase in TC [4]. Aluminum (Second Part) - Low aluminum prices increased downstream replenishment. The SMM aluminum social inventory decreased by 14,900 tons to 63,100 tons. The domestic aluminum market is in a situation of both supply and demand increase. The cost support is prominent, and the key support is at 16,200 yuan/ton [6]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel futures weakened. The market is worried about the Fed's liquidity control. The upstream price increase supported the mid - stream. The market is mainly dominated by policy sentiment, and it is expected to be in a weak oscillation waiting for Indonesia's policy changes [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin futures decreased with reduced positions. The SMM spot tin price dropped to 341,450 yuan. The social inventory decreased by 2,380 tons to 10,977 tons. Tin price may fall towards 300,000 yuan due to sufficient supply [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures oscillated. The total inventory decreased by 100 tons to 99,000 tons. The production has recovered to a high level. The market is expected to be in an oscillating pattern [9]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures oscillated. The supply increase is limited in March - April. Downstream demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is expected to be in a weak oscillation [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures dropped sharply by over 8%. High inventory and macro - factors led to a bearish market. The strategy is to be bearish, and it is recommended to gradually take profits when the price is below 35,000 yuan/ton [11]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) has announced its tungsten metal production target for 2025, which is set at 7,114 tons [1] - The company ranks globally in tungsten production, although the specific ranking is not mentioned in the article [1] - The production figures are disclosed in the company's annual reports and were confirmed during the seventh board's ninth temporary meeting [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the long-term logic for precious metals is strengthening despite short-term volatility, driven by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and inflationary pressures [5] - Copper prices are under pressure due to recession expectations, although there is a rise in downstream purchasing interest as prices decline [6] - Aluminum has long-term upside potential despite recent price declines, with supply disruptions expected from geopolitical tensions [7] - Tungsten prices are stabilizing at high levels, with supply shortages dominating the market [8] - Lithium prices are adjusting, but there is a rebound in purchasing interest from downstream sectors [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 8452.57, with a 52-week high of 11180.33 and a low of 4295.55 [2] Price Movements - LME copper decreased by 8.39%, aluminum by 5.90%, zinc by 6.80%, lead by 1.87%, and tin by 10.40% this week [21] - COMEX gold fell by 10.36% and silver by 16.28% [21] Inventory Changes - Global visible copper inventory decreased by 5454 tons, while aluminum inventory increased by 2679 tons [32][34]