Report Title Lead Weekly Report: Pay Attention to the Impact of Capital Flows, Lead Prices May Rise and Then Fall [1] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still have upward momentum due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure, and social inventories may gradually accumulate slowly [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Market and Logic - **Trading Logic and Strategy** - **Industry Supply and Demand** - **Supply**: Domestic lead concentrate supply and demand are in a tight balance, with domestic processing fees at 350 yuan/metal ton and SMM imported lead concentrate weekly processing fees at - 125 dollars/dry ton. After the lead price increase, scrap battery purchase prices of secondary lead smelters did not rise significantly, and recyclers were reluctant to sell. The weekly operating rate of secondary lead continued to increase, and raw material demand also increased. With the increase in the operating rate of secondary lead smelters, the price of lead - containing waste is expected to rise [4]. - **Smelting**: The average operating rate of SMM's three - province primary lead smelters was 67.57%, a 0.93% decline from last week. Some smelters in Hunan and North China had production changes. The SMM four - province weekly operating rate of secondary lead was 42.21%, a 7.10% increase from last week. The smelting profit improved, and the production enthusiasm of secondary lead smelters was boosted, with the operating rate expected to rise next week [4]. - **Consumption**: The SMM five - province weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 75.35%, a 0.38% increase from the previous week. The energy storage battery market performed best, while the electric bicycle and automobile battery markets had differences. High lead prices may affect battery enterprise orders and production [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 23, SMM's five - region social lead ingot inventory was 31,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from October 20 and October 16. On October 23, LME inventory was 135,400 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from October 17. In the long - term, domestic social inventory may gradually accumulate [4]. - **Trading Strategy** - **Single - side**: Short - term Shanghai lead prices may still rise due to capital flows, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are under pressure. Short positions can be gradually established at high prices. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily wait and see. - **Options**: Temporarily wait and see [4] - **Other Sub - sections** - **1.2 Futures Price**: Information on Shanghai lead price, LME lead price, monthly spread, and futures market trading and positions is provided, with data sources from IFIND and SMM [6] - **1.3 Price Spread**: Information on SMM 1 lead ingot, Shanghai lead spot premium/discount, secondary lead, LME lead 0 - 3 month premium/discount, and lead concentrate scrap price difference is covered [9] - **1.4 Inventory Data**: It includes LME lead inventory, cancellation warrant ratio, domestic social inventory, domestic registered warrants, LME inventory by region, and port inventory [12] - **1.5 Lead Industry Chain Inventory**: It involves smelter lead concentrate inventory, primary lead smelter raw material inventory, secondary lead smelter finished product inventory (monthly and weekly), primary lead delivery brand factory warehouse, and primary lead smelter finished product inventory [16] 3.2 Chapter 2: Raw Material End - **2.1 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - It includes global lead ore production, lead concentrate imports, lead concentrate import profit and loss, and silver concentrate imports [21] - **2.2 Raw Material Supply - Primary** - Information on domestic total lead concentrate supply, domestic mine operating rate, and domestic lead ore production is provided [24] - **2.3 Raw Material Supply - Secondary** - It covers the price of lead - containing waste, scrap battery price, and secondary lead smelter raw material inventory [29][30] 3.3 Chapter 3: Smelting End - **3.1 Global Refined Lead** - It includes global refined lead balance, production, and demand [37][39] - **3.2 Domestic Refined Lead Import and Export** - It involves import profit and loss, import volume, export profit and loss, export volume, net export volume, and seasonal export profit and loss [42] - **3.3 Primary Lead Smelting Enterprise Profit** - It includes lead concentrate processing fees, smelting profit, sulfuric acid revenue, and silver revenue [43] - **3.4 Primary Lead Supply** - It covers primary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and electrolytic lead main delivery brand production [48] - **3.5 Secondary Lead Enterprise Cost and Profit** - It includes the cost and profit of large - scale and small - to - medium - scale secondary lead enterprises [50][54] - **3.6 Secondary Lead Supply** - It involves secondary lead smelting enterprise operating rate, production, and secondary lead bullion production [60] - **3.7 Domestic Lead Ingot Supply** - It includes domestic total lead ingot supply, primary lead production, secondary lead production, and refined lead net export [64] 3.4 Chapter 4: Demand End - **4.1 Lead - Acid Battery** - It includes lead - acid battery enterprise operating rate, dealer finished product inventory, export volume, enterprise finished product inventory, and import volume [71] - **4.2 Lead Alloys and Plates** - It involves lead alloy price, lead alloy import and export, lead plate import and export, and other lead plate import and export [74] - **4.3 Automobile** - It includes Chinese automobile production, export, production structure, traditional fuel vehicle production, and new energy vehicle production [76][77] - **4.4 Motorcycle, Power, and Communication** - It covers motorcycle production, communication construction volume, power project (grid project and power source project) [80][81][82]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 10 月 27 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：利好传来逢低做多 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：震荡市等待做多机会 4 | | 豆粕：大豆压榨利润继续修复 盘面逐步反弹 5 | | --- | | 白糖：外糖价格继续下跌 郑糖价格相对抗跌 5 | | 油脂板块：短期盘面震荡略偏弱 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：玉米和淀粉: 玉米继续上量，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 价格小幅反弹 8 | | 花生：花生油厂仍未大量收购，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡有所增加 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果：新季果质量较差 客商采购积极 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：收购进入高峰 棉价震荡略偏强 11 | | 钢材：河北开启环保限产，铁水产量继续下滑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部有支撑 上行有阻力 13 | | 铁矿：中期偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：宏观情绪带动反弹，但供需压力仍存 15 | | 贵金属：多空因素交织，关注央行周波动风险 17 | | --- | | 铜：中美达成初步共识，铜 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market opened positively on October 27, with major indices closing higher: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.26%, and ChiNext Index up 1.54%, approaching the 4000-point mark [1][3] - The total market turnover reached 1.58 trillion yuan, showing a significant increase compared to the previous day, with over 3700 stocks rising [3] Sector Performance - Key sectors that performed well included telecommunications, steel, non-ferrous metals, and electronics, with notable gains in controllable nuclear fusion, Fujian local stocks, and storage chips [3][7] - The non-ferrous metals sector was particularly active, with stocks like Antai Technology and Xiamen Tungsten hitting the daily limit, while other companies like Dongfang Tantalum and Zhongtung High-tech also saw significant increases [10][12] Notable Stocks - In the Hong Kong market, Baidu Group led the gains with a rise of over 5%, contributing to a 1.02% increase in the Hang Seng Index [3][4] - Fujian local stocks saw a collective surge, with Haixia Innovation hitting the daily limit and other stocks like Fujian Cement and Zhangzhou Development also performing strongly [7][8] Upcoming Events - The 2025 Financial Street Forum is set to open in the afternoon of October 27, with key financial leaders expected to deliver speeches, which has generated market anticipation for potential policy announcements [5][6] Strategic Insights - Recent signals of easing tensions in US-China relations and the release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are expected to enhance market risk appetite and provide a clearer growth path for A-shares through technological breakthroughs and industrial upgrades [4][6]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **E-commerce**: TikTok, Jitu Express - **Aviation**: China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Huaxia Airlines - **Express Delivery**: YTO Express, Shentong Express - **Shipping**: China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development - **Lithium Industry**: New Zobang - **Coal Industry**: Yancoal Energy, Guanghui Energy, Huayang Co., China Coal Energy - **Chemical Industry**: Zanyu Technology - **Fertilizer Industry**: Yara International, Dongfang Tower, Salt Lake Co. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium Core Points and Arguments - **E-commerce Growth**: TikTok's e-commerce growth is expected to reach 30%, with Jitu Express showing a volume growth of over 65% in the first three quarters. Latin America's e-commerce penetration is only 15%, indicating significant potential for growth [1][2] - **Aviation Sector Recovery**: Airlines are benefiting from improved ticket prices and passenger load factors, with a notable increase in ticket prices by 0.5% during the National Day holiday and subsequent weeks. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Air China [4] - **Express Delivery Valuation**: The express delivery sector remains attractive, with YTO Express and Shentong Express expected to have PE ratios of 9 and 8-9 respectively next year. The trend of reducing internal competition continues [4] - **Shipping Market Dynamics**: The commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to significantly improve the supply-demand relationship for bulk carriers, with a projected shortfall of 232 Capesize vessels. Recommended stocks include China Merchants Energy and Haitong Development [5] - **Lithium Hydrofluoric Acid Price Surge**: The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has nearly doubled, reaching 92,500 CNY/ton, driven by increased demand, particularly from energy storage orders. The industry operating rate is at 77%, with inventory decreasing [9] - **Coal Market Outlook**: Coal production is expected to decline if companies do not exceed production limits, while demand remains strong. Recent coal prices have surged to 750-800 CNY, with potential for further increases [15][16] - **Chemical Industry Performance**: The chemical product price index remains stable, with specific products like polyester showing price fluctuations. The demand for fertilizers is expected to remain strong despite entering a seasonal lull [12][7] - **Fertilizer Market Trends**: Potash fertilizer inventory has slightly increased but remains low. The price of phosphate rock is stable, with a focus on companies with significant growth potential like Yara International and Dongfang Tower [7][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices**: Recent geopolitical events have influenced oil prices, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 7.5% to $61.44 per barrel. OPEC's production increase and signs of a slowing U.S. economy may exert downward pressure on prices [6] - **Winter Heating Season Impact**: The winter heating season is expected to significantly affect coal demand, with an anticipated consumption increase of 50 million tons if heating starts early. This could lead to a substantial reduction in inventory levels [17][18] - **Investment Recommendations**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with high long-term contract ratios in the coal sector, such as Yancoal Energy and Guanghui Energy, as they are expected to perform well in the upcoming winter season [19]

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年10月26日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：基本面矛盾不突出，价格表现震荡 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：270000-285000元/吨 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 01-26 02-10 02-24 03-07 03-18 03-29 04-11 04-22 05-06 05-17 05-28 06-10 06-21 07-04 07-15 07-26 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-09 09-20 10-08 10-20 11-01 11-15 11-29 12-10 12-22 吨 SMM社会库存 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-03 01-14 02-02 02-17 03 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of the mining industry in Huangshi, Hubei, through the integration of digital technologies and industrial internet, leading to improved management efficiency and production capabilities [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Transformation - Huangshi, with over 4,000 years of mining history, is evolving from traditional heavy industries to a more intelligent and data-driven industrial base [2] - The implementation of industrial internet applications has led to significant upgrades in production processes, exemplified by the automation and smart control in companies like Yangxin Hongsheng Copper Industry [2][3] Group 2: Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of this year, the total output value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Huangshi reached 219.798 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [3] - The industrial added value also saw a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, with industrial investment and technological transformation investment growing by 33.7% and 25.2%, respectively, indicating robust economic momentum [3]

Group 1 - Company announced the convening of the 9th second temporary board meeting on October 24, 2025, via communication voting [1] - The meeting reviewed the "2025 Third Quarter Report" and other documents [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company's revenue composition was as follows: metallurgy accounted for 96.38%, self-generated electricity 3.02%, and edible oil and by-products 0.6% [1] Group 2 - The current market capitalization of the company is 2.6 billion yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of a green tax system in Qinghai Province's Xining Economic Development Zone has led to significant environmental tax reductions for companies, promoting green development and encouraging businesses to adopt eco-friendly practices [1][2]. Group 1: Environmental Tax Impact - A total of 28 companies in the Ganhe Industrial Park have benefited from environmental tax reductions amounting to approximately 69.35 million yuan due to lower emissions [1]. - Qinghai Yuntianhua International Fertilizer Co., Ltd. has seen a steady decrease in its environmental tax payments over the past two years, attributed to the adoption of energy-saving and emission-reducing technologies [2]. Group 2: Multi-Department Collaboration - The tax bureau, in collaboration with the park management and environmental departments, has initiated environmental protection awareness campaigns to encourage companies to upgrade their facilities and optimize processes for pollution reduction [3]. - A new management model has been established, integrating tax administration, enterprise reporting, environmental monitoring, and information sharing to enhance compliance and support for green initiatives [3]. Group 3: Green Transformation and Development - The Ganhe Industrial Park is experiencing a boost in green, high-quality development, with companies like Qinghai Baihe Aluminum Co., Ltd. and Huanghe Xinye Co., Ltd. adopting green low-carbon and intelligent manufacturing practices [4]. - Huanghe Xinye Co., Ltd. has invested in new environmental facilities, significantly reducing pollution emissions, while Qinghai Baihe Aluminum Co., Ltd. has enhanced its environmental investments to lower its carbon footprint and promote circular production [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The zinc market shows a complex structure. The LME zinc has structural risks with a high basis difference, while the domestic zinc inventory reduction rate has slowed down. With the opening of the domestic zinc ingot export window, the Shanghai-London ratio has stabilized. Considering the positive atmosphere in the non-ferrous metal market, the Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.06% to 22,362 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - position of 213,400 lots in unilateral trading. The LME zinc 3S fell 7.5 to 3,027 dollars/ton, with a total long - position of 221,900 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,190 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread at 35 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic and Overseas Structure**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 225.89 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 56.18 dollars/ton. The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,250 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 110 dollars/dry ton. The zinc concentrate port inventory was 270,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 628,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis The report presents multiple macro - related charts including US fiscal and debt data (such as monthly fiscal revenue, expenditure, and deficit MA12, ratio of US national debt to GDP), Fed's balance sheet data (assets and liabilities), dollar liquidity, and manufacturing PMI data of China and the US, as well as new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are given [15][17][19][20]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ore output was 314,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 10.0% and a month - on - month change of - 8.8%. The zinc ore net import was 505,400 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 25.2% and a month - on - month change of 8.6%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 541,900 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 2.2% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In September 2025, the zinc ingot output was 600,100 tons, a year - on - year change of 20.2% and a month - on - month change of - 4.2%. The zinc ingot net import was 23,300 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of - 16.2%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 12.3% and a month - on - month change of - 4.7% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial Demand**: The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide were 57.48%, 53.13%, and 56.36% respectively. Their raw material inventories were 13,000 tons, 13,000 tons, and 3,000 tons respectively, and their finished product inventories were 370,000 tons, 10,000 tons, and 5,000 tons respectively [39]. - **Apparent Demand**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot apparent demand was 622,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of 3.9% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In September 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 500 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to September was a surplus of 143,200 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 3,000 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand difference from January to July was a surplus of 28,200 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic and Overseas Basis Spread**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 162,100 tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 65,800 tons, with an inner - market Shanghai basis of - 55 yuan/ton and a continuous - contract minus first - contract spread of - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,700 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,900 tons, with an outer - market cash - 3S contract basis of 225.89 dollars/ton and a 3 - 15 spread of 56.18 dollars/ton [60][63]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: The cross - market Shanghai - London ratio after excluding exchange was 1.039, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 5,426.56 yuan/ton [64]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net long positions of Shanghai zinc turned slightly long, the net long positions of LME zinc investment funds decreased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is short - term bullish [67].

Core Insights - Henan Yuguang Gold Lead Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 34.855 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 20.12% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 621 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.99% [1] - In the third quarter alone, the company achieved a revenue of 12.414 billion yuan, which is a 22.33% increase compared to the previous year [1] - The net profit for the third quarter was 136 million yuan, showing a year-on-year rise of 2.12% [1] Company Overview - Yuguang Gold Lead primarily engages in the smelting and import-export trade of non-ferrous metals and precious metals, including electrolytic lead, silver, gold, cathode copper, and sulfuric acid [1] - The main products of the company include electrolytic lead and lead alloys, silver, gold, cathode copper, and sulfuric acid [1]