| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月07日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周一沪铜减仓收阴,周内关注2507合约建仓速度。国内消费淡季明显,SMM社库增加1.1万吨至14.29万吨，铜 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 中国住建部称将更大力度推动房地产市场止 跌回稳 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-07-07 宏观策略（黄金） 美国财长贝森特：贸易谈判的最后阶段出现僵局 周五金价震荡微跌，美国独立日休市海外市场交易较为清淡， 市场聚焦关税暂缓期到期后美国对等关税落地情况，9 日前仍有 谈判在推进，主要是欧盟和日本还未与美国达成协议。 宏观策略（股指期货） 住建部：更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳 综 合 近期股市情绪持续升温，新题材涌现，使得市场顶住高估压力 持续上涨。这种单边堰塞湖的状态，后续需要基本面回升来夯 实行情。此外海外关税扰动仍不可忽视 晨 宏观策略（国债期货） 报 央行开展了 340 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 展望下周，预计资金面仍然偏松，债市做多动能继续积累，但 长端品种突破尚需等待。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） Mysteel 数据：全国主要油厂大豆压榨预估调查统计 45Z 税收抵免通过，关注 7 月 8 日听证会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 6 月下旬重点钢企钢材库存量 1545 万吨 反内卷政策预期带动钢价偏强，基本面仍有支撑，五大品种库 存并未进一步累积。但随着 ...

Core Viewpoint - Daoshi Technology is making a significant overseas investment of approximately 1.183 billion yuan to establish a copper wet smelting plant in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, aimed at expanding production capacity and securing resource supply [1][2][3]. Investment and Expansion - The company plans to invest in a project that will produce 30,000 tons of cathode copper and 2,710 tons of cobalt intermediates, with a project cycle of 18 months [2][3]. - This investment is part of Daoshi Technology's long-term strategic layout in the Congo, a region rich in copper and cobalt resources, which will enhance the stability and security of raw material supply [2][3]. Production Capacity and Growth - Daoshi Technology's cathode copper production is projected to reach 40,900 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 32%, marking a historical high [1][3]. - The company is also expected to produce 1,743 tons of cobalt intermediates in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 227% [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Daoshi Technology reported a revenue of 7.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%, and a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 662.33%, ending two consecutive years of profit decline [5]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas market revenue, which grew 3.82 times over the past three years, with the revenue share rising from 16.13% to 65.8% [6]. Research and Development - Daoshi Technology has invested over 1.228 billion yuan in R&D from 2020 to 2024, resulting in accelerated technology transformation [6]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 64 patents in carbon materials, 222 in lithium battery materials, and 104 in ceramic materials [6].

锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：微观基本面转弱 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：265000-270000元/吨 本周冶炼厂开工率继续走低 本周社会库存基本持平 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-03 01-13 01-26 02-10 02-23 03-04 03-15 03-25 04-07 04-18 04-28 05-10 05-20 05-31 06-13 06-24 07-05 07-19 08-02 08-16 08-30 09-13 09-27 10-14 10-28 11-11 11-24 12-03 12-15 12-24 % 精炼锡_两省合计开工率 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 0 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of the special action is to promote standardized law enforcement related to enterprises, addressing difficulties faced by businesses, and creating a conducive development environment [1][3] - The inspection team held a meeting to discuss the progress and challenges of the special action, emphasizing the importance of administrative law enforcement in shaping government image and public trust [3][8] - Various enforcement departments reported on their responsibilities and exchanged views on the challenges faced during law enforcement processes [3][6] Group 2 - The inspection team visited several companies to gather feedback from business leaders regarding law enforcement practices and to discuss standardization [5][6] - The team acknowledged the efforts made by the county government in implementing the special action and outlined requirements for further improvement, including enhancing law enforcement efficiency and optimizing service for businesses [8] - Emphasis was placed on adhering to local jurisdiction principles, establishing collaboration mechanisms, and prohibiting any form of coercive enforcement or profit-seeking behavior by law enforcement officials [8]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. by Shudao Investment Group aims to alleviate financial difficulties, optimize capital structure, and enhance control stability over the company [5][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Purpose and Financial Situation - The acquisition aims to address the financial distress of the listed company, improve liquidity, and enhance profitability [5]. - As of the end of 2024, the listed company has outstanding debts including a principal repayment of 423.43 million yuan and delayed performance payments of 222.99 million yuan, alongside bank loans totaling 680.62 million yuan, resulting in a high debt-to-asset ratio of 82.87% [6]. - The acquisition will involve raising funds to repay debts, which is crucial for the company's financial health and risk management [6]. Group 2: Acquirer and Action Parties' Qualifications - Shudao Investment Group, established in May 2021, has a registered capital of 54.23 billion yuan and is wholly owned by Sichuan Development (Holding) Co., Ltd. [10]. - The action parties, including Sichuan Hongda Industrial Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Tianfu Chunxiao Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., are legally established entities with no significant legal or financial issues [12][17]. - The financial advisor confirms that the acquirer and action parties have the necessary qualifications and capabilities to conduct the acquisition [5][17]. Group 3: Financial Strength and Funding Sources - Shudao Group plans to subscribe to the stock issuance at a price of 4.68 yuan per share, acquiring 609.6 million shares for a total of 2.85 billion yuan [11]. - The funding will come from a combination of bank loans amounting to 2.282 billion yuan and self-owned funds of 571 million yuan, ensuring the legality and compliance of the funding sources [18]. - The financial advisor has verified the acquirer's financial stability and operational soundness, confirming their ability to proceed with the acquisition [11][18]. Group 4: Impact on Company Independence and Competition - The acquisition will not change the actual controller of the listed company, maintaining its operational independence [22]. - There exists a potential for competition between the listed company and Shudao Group's controlled entity, Qingping Phosphate Mine, which produces similar phosphate products [23][26]. - Shudao Group has committed to resolving any competitive issues through business integration and will not engage in new competitive activities against the listed company [26].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd., is utilizing the raised funds through agreed deposits and notice deposits to enhance fund efficiency and shareholder returns while ensuring the safety and liquidity of the funds [1][2][5]. Fundraising Basic Information - The company has issued 609,600,000 shares at a price of RMB 4.68 per share, raising a total of RMB 2,834,758,430.19, verified by Sichuan Huaxin Accounting Firm [1][2]. Fund Usage - The total amount raised is RMB 285,292.80 million, with RMB 134,751.11 million allocated for debt repayment and RMB 150,541.69 million for working capital [2]. Fund Storage Method - The company will store the remaining funds (RMB 283,536.92 million) in agreed deposits and notice deposits to improve fund utilization efficiency while maintaining liquidity [2][3]. Risk Control Measures - The company has established a fund management system to ensure the effective and compliant operation of fund storage, with independent directors and supervisory boards having the authority to oversee fund usage [4]. Impact on the Company - The decision to store funds in agreed and notice deposits will not affect the normal use of the raised funds and is expected to enhance fund returns and overall company performance [4]. Review Procedures - Both the board of directors and the supervisory board have approved the storage method, confirming compliance with relevant regulations and ensuring no adverse impact on shareholder interests [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. is undergoing a significant acquisition process led by Shudao Investment Group, which aims to increase its stake in the company and has received necessary approvals from relevant authorities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Shudao Group currently holds 31.31% of the voting rights in Hongda Co., consisting of 486,314,805 shares directly and additional shares through its subsidiaries [3]. - The acquisition involves issuing 609,600,000 new shares, and Shudao Group has committed not to transfer these shares for 36 months post-listing [3][4]. - The acquisition has been approved by the non-related shareholders at the company's second extraordinary general meeting in 2024, allowing Shudao Group to bypass the mandatory offer requirement [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Overview - Shudao Group's total assets reached approximately 150.03 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of about 590.63 million yuan [26]. - The financial performance of Shudao Group over the last three years shows a steady increase in total assets and net assets, indicating a robust financial position [26]. - Hongda Industrial, a subsidiary of Shudao Group, has faced financial difficulties, entering bankruptcy restructuring in 2023, but has since completed its restructuring plan [29][30]. Group 3: Corporate Structure - Shudao Group is a state-owned enterprise under the supervision of the Sichuan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, holding 100% of its shares [27]. - Hongda Industrial and Tianfu Chunxiao, both acting in concert with Shudao Group, are also under the control of the Sichuan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [27][30]. - Tianfu Chunxiao was established as a special purpose vehicle to mitigate risks associated with Sichuan Trust Co., Ltd. [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock indices, futures, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies for each sector, emphasizing the need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: The previous trading day saw most stock indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.90%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1309.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long positions in IF index futures on dips, and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yields of some treasury bond futures contracts showed small fluctuations. The economic data is affected by tariff policies, and the export may face pressure in the future. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The "Big and Beautiful Act" has been passed, and the US is about to implement a loose fiscal policy. The silver price shows resilience. The Fed is expected to maintain the interest rate in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - buying opportunities of silver [8][9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuates downward. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low, providing strong support for the price. However, the short - term upward pressure increases. The reference operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 79,800 - 81,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rise is blocked due to inventory accumulation. The domestic and overseas inventory is at a low level, supporting the price, but the inventory increase and weak demand form pressure. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton [12]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rises. The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The recent commodity atmosphere is good, which boosts the zinc price [13][14]. - **Lead**: The lead price shows a strong upward trend. The supply from the primary end is high, and the supply from the secondary end is in short supply. The downstream demand improves marginally. The domestic weak consumption restricts the increase of the SHFE lead price [15]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuates. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens. It is advisable to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates. The supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the supply of refined tin is further tightened. The terminal demand is weak. The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rebounds slightly. The production decreases, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,800 - 65,800 yuan/ton [18]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index falls. The spot price in some regions rises slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rises slightly. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rises slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price follows the cost end. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. 3. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates strongly. The "anti - involution and capacity - reduction" policy and the expected production reduction in Tangshan lead to the price increase. The inventory of rebar is depleted slowly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil accumulates slightly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rises. The recent shipment volume and arrival volume decline, and the demand weakens. The inventory changes little. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price rebounds, and the soda ash price is expected to follow the glass to rebound, but the sustainability is limited. The supply of soda ash is still loose, and the inventory pressure is large [27][28]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The manganese silicon price fluctuates, and the ferrosilicon price falls. It is recommended to wait and see before the price breaks through the downward trend line [29]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price falls. The price is still in the downward trend since November 2024. It is necessary to observe whether the price can break through the long - term downward trend line [32]. 4. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price adjusts downward. The bulls focus on the potential supply reduction, while the bears emphasize the weak demand. It is recommended to take a neutral short - term approach and a long - term bullish approach. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [35][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI and Brent crude oil prices fall, while the INE crude oil price rises. The geopolitical risk re - emerges, and the oil price rebounds. It is advisable to wait and see [39]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 09 contract price rises. The inventory is low, and the supply is high. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - buying opportunities on dips [40]. - **Urea**: The urea 09 contract price falls. The supply decreases, and the demand may improve slightly. It is advisable to look for short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [41][42]. - **Styrene**: The spot price of styrene falls, and the futures price rises. The supply increases, and the demand decreases in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [43]. - **PVC**: The PVC09 contract price falls. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure in the future [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG09 contract price falls. The supply and demand both decline, and the inventory decreases. The price is expected to be weak in the future, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [45][46]. - **PTA**: The PTA09 contract price falls. The supply may decrease in July, and the demand is under slight pressure. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [47]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX09 contract price falls. The supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory may be depleted in the third quarter. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [48]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE futures price rises. The inventory is gradually depleted, and the price is expected to fluctuate [49]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP futures price rises. The supply may increase, and the demand may decline seasonally. The LL - PP spread is expected to widen in the second half of the year [50]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price rises in most areas. The price is expected to fall in the north and remain stable in the south. It is recommended to buy short - term long positions on dips for near - term contracts and sell short on rallies for long - term contracts [52]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is generally stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to reduce short positions on dips or wait and see in the short term and wait for the opportunity to sell short on rallies in the medium term [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuates. The domestic soybean meal price rises slightly. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to try long positions on dips at the low end of the cost range [54][56]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oils and fats price fluctuates. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the supply increase is expected. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy hearing in July [57][59]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuates strongly. The domestic sugar sales are good, but the external market price falls, and the sugar price may continue to decline [60]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuates narrowly. The US cotton planting area is higher than expected, which is negative for the price. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expected Sino - US negotiation, but the de - stocking speed slows down. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [61][62].

| 铅锌日评20250704：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/4 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,000.00 0.44% | | | | | | | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,245.00 0.41% | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -245.00 5.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 -35.00 - | | | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -26.47 0.30 | | | | | | | | | | | -64.00 -5.10 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 10.00 40.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -3 ...