12月19日，商务部发布2025年第81号公告，公布对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶所适用的 反倾销措施发起期终复审调查。 商务部公告2025年第81号 公布对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶所适用的反倾销措施发起期终复审调查 2020年12月18日，商务部发布2020年第60号公告，决定自2020年12月20日起，对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进 口三元乙丙橡胶征收反倾销税，税率为美国公司214.9%—222.0%，韩国公司12.5%—24.5%，欧盟公司14.7%— 31.7%，实施期限为5年。 根据商务部2021年第3号公告，2020年12月31日英国脱欧过渡期结束后，之前已对欧盟实施的贸易救济措施继 续适用于欧盟和英国，实施期限不变；该日期后对欧盟新发起的贸易救济调查及复审案件，不再将英国作为欧 盟成员国处理。 2025年10月17日，商务部收到中国石油天然气股份有限公司吉林石化分公司和上海中石化三井弹性体有限公司 （以下称申请人）代表国内三元乙丙橡胶产业提交的反倾销措施期终复审申请书。申请人主张，如果终止反倾 销措施，原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶对中国的倾销可能继续或再度发 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 合成橡胶市场周报 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 3 目录 行情回顾：本周原料端刚需买盘跟进后价格走高，成本面支撑超预期走强及生产利润压缩带动现 货市场行情上探。山东市场顺丁橡胶价格延续上探，现货价格区间在10250-11000元/吨。中石化 化销及中石油主要销售公司高顺顺丁橡胶出厂价格累计上调300元/吨，中石油西南出厂价格累计 上调400元/吨。 行情展望：前期多数检修顺丁橡胶装置陆续重启，国内产量恢复性提升。本周开工逐步恢复，货 源流转情况略显一般，生产企业库存有所增量，现货端月度计划陆续执行，但市场成交跟进一般， 贸易企业货权库存亦有增量。现货端流通资源及国内生产装置负荷较高局面下，供应压力仍处于 较高水平。需求方面，本周轮胎企业灵活排产，部分企业存控产现象，国内轮胎企业产能利用率 偏弱运行，进入季节性淡季，企业整体出货节奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存 停限产现象。 策略建议： br2602合约短线预计在10650-11400区间波动 ...

以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成投资建议。 证券之星消息，12月19日橡胶板块较上一交易日下跌0.0%，C元创领跌。当日上证指数报收于3890.45， 上涨0.36%。深证成指报收于13140.22，上涨0.66%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日橡胶板块主力资金净流出7130.87万元，游资资金净流出1506.06万元，散户资 金净流入8636.93万元。橡胶板块个股资金流向见下表： ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

化工日报 | 2025-12-19 下游轮胎开工率环比下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15320元/吨，较前一日变动-70元/吨；NR主力合约12455元/吨，较前一日变动-115 元/吨；BR主力合约11040元/吨，较前一日变动-120元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15000元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14550元/吨，较前一 日变动-100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1845美元/吨，较前一日变动-5美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1765 美元/吨，较前一日变动-15美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10900元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月份，重卡销量11.3万辆，同比大增65%，收获同比"8连增"的同时，还创造了今年重卡市场最高月销量。 据中国汽车工业协会发布的最新数据显示，11月，我国汽车产销量分别完成353.2万辆和342.9万辆，环比分别增长 5.1%和3.2%，同比分别增长2.8%和3.4%。月度产量首次超过350万辆，创历 ...

Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a slight rebound, with WTI January contract closing at $56.15 per barrel, up $0.21 (0.38%) [2][16] - Brent February contract closed at $59.82 per barrel, up $0.14 (0.23%) [2][16] - Venezuela's oil exports face risks due to U.S. threats of sanctions and blockade on oil tankers, potentially affecting 600,000 barrels per day [2][16] - The largest refinery in Venezuela, Amuay, has resumed production after a power outage, with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels [2][16] Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose by 2.01% to 2439 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 increased by 1.59% to 2931 yuan/ton [3][17] - Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.402 million barrels (5.38%) to 24.658 million barrels [3][17] - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to remain well-supplied through December and January due to substantial supply from the Middle East [3][17] Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2602 increased by 0.68% to 2952 yuan/ton [4][18] - Domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.8% week-on-week, totaling 384,000 tons [4][18] - The market shows concerns over raw material shortages due to tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela [4][18] Rubber - The main rubber contract RU2605 fell by 70 yuan/ton to 15,320 yuan/ton, while NR and BR contracts also saw declines [5][19] - China's rubber tire exports reached 8.83 million tons in the first 11 months of 2025, up 3.7% year-on-year [5][19] - The production of synthetic rubber in China for November 2025 was 779,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [5][19] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 4748 yuan/ton, up 1.37%, while EG2605 closed at 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [6][20] - PX futures closed at 6862 yuan/ton, up 1.33%, with spot prices at $840/ton [6][20] - Ethylene glycol operating rates in mainland China increased to 71.97%, up 2.04% week-on-week [6][20] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were 2155 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices at $243-247/ton [7][21] - Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is expected to weaken due to reduced operating rates in MTO facilities [7][21] - The parking of Iranian facilities may lead to a decline in imports in late December to January [7][21] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polyolefins in East China ranged from 6120 to 6350 yuan/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [8][22] - HDPE film prices decreased by 144 yuan/ton, while LDPE and LLDPE also saw declines [8][22] - The market is transitioning towards oversupply, with inventory pressures increasing [8][22][23] PVC - PVC prices in East China increased, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4400 to 4510 yuan/ton [9][24] - Supply is expected to increase slightly due to planned restarts of some facilities [9][24] - Domestic demand is anticipated to slow down as construction activity in real estate decreases [9][24] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 1.67% to 1708 yuan/ton, with spot prices increasing in major regions [10][25] - Supply levels have slightly decreased, with daily production at 191,800 tons, down 3200 tons day-on-day [10][25] - Market sentiment remains positive due to various factors, including Indian tenders and macroeconomic recovery [10][25] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices increased by 2.14% to 1193 yuan/ton, with stable spot prices [11][26] - Production decreased by 1.91% to 721,400 tons, while inventory levels showed slight fluctuations [11][26] - Demand remains weak, with expectations of reduced consumption in downstream industries [11][26] Glass - Glass futures prices rose by 2.31% to 1062 yuan/ton, with signs of stabilization in the spot market [12][27] - The industry maintains a daily melting capacity of 155,000 tons, with potential cold repairs expected [12][27] - Inventory levels increased by 0.57%, indicating weak demand persistence [12][27]

热带雨林与产业园区同框，绿色颜值与金色产值共生。近年来，云南省西双版纳州依托自身丰富的热区 资源，立足沿边开放高地，紧紧依托中老铁路"黄金通道"，不断扩大高水平对外开放，把资源优势转化 为经济优势，把区位优势升级为开放胜势。 西双版纳州委书记朱家伟表示，西双版纳走出了一条"生态立州、产业富州、开放活州、人才兴州、文 化润州、创新强州、依法治州"的发展之路。近3年全州经营主体净增8.4万户，增长55%，民营经济占 地区生产总值比重达64.1%。 产业更优动能强 "西双版纳有近500万亩橡胶种植量，每40年要进行更新，依托这一资源，利用胶树及其小径材、枝丫材 等材料生产高端刨花板，对西双版纳州深化橡胶木资源的高效综合利用具有重要意义。"该公司董事长 叶光华说。 天然橡胶是西双版纳的传统支柱产业。据统计，2024年，西双版纳州天然橡胶种植面积占全国的 27.8%，目前全州涉胶企业134家，形成了从种植、加工到制品生产、木材综合利用全链条体系。今年 前三季度，橡胶全产业链实现产值205.74亿元，同比增长22.17%，其中综合加工产值107.11亿元，增长 26%，附加值持续提高。 橡胶是西双版纳推动传统产业向价值链 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 报告导读： 货 研 我们的观点：从全年的角度看，预计胶价重心稍抬，但上下空间皆有限制。从节奏来看，上半年与下半年供需节奏均呈现错 配，难以形成趋势性行情，可关注波动性机会。 究 所 我们的逻辑：从全年的角度看，随着东南亚主产区树龄老化，长期产能下降趋势不改（非洲胶增速高，但目前基数尚小，可 能较难抵消东南亚产区树龄老化导致的减产），而全球橡胶需求稳定增加，去库周期中 2026 年价格重心可能继续提高。但 目前东南亚产区原料产出仍有一定弹性，价格上涨依旧能刺激产出，可能抑制价格大幅上涨的空间。从节奏来看，上半年， 原料难跌，需求承压。供应端海内外低产季，预计泰国库存偏低，泰国、云南加工产能扩张继续托举原料价格。需求端上半 年外需面临欧盟双反导致乘用车胎出口大幅下滑的风险，内需面临购置税减半征收、以旧换新政策的透支效应。下半年，供 应端产出增加，需求端利好增多。若上半年出口因双反受创，下半年外需可能因企业逐渐开发欧盟之外的市场、找到转口贸 易渠道而改善。海外处于降息周期，国内提振消费的政策大方向不变，下半年内需有望在内外宏观利好下企稳。 投资展望：价格上下区间皆有限，全年供需节奏 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2025 年 12 月 18 日 橡胶甲醇原油 偏多氛围提振 能化偏强运行 核心观点 橡胶：本周四国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 15320 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.29%至 15320 元/吨。1-5 月差升水幅度升阔至 15 元/吨。目前国内胶市由供需基本面所主导，胶价维持区间内震荡。 宝城期货金融研究所 甲醇：本周四国内甲醇期货 2605 合约呈现缩量减 ...

天然橡胶产业日报 2025-12-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 沪胶1-5价差(日,元/吨) | 15320 15 | -70 20号胶主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 15 20号胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | 12455 -5 | -115 -5 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 沪胶与20号胶价差(日,元/吨) | 2865 | 45 沪胶主力合约 持仓量(日,手) | 146623 | 128 | | | 20号胶主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 59257 | -2571 沪胶前20名净持仓 | -38927 | -8661 | | | 20号胶前20名净持仓 | -12843 | -1358 沪胶交易所仓单(日,吨) | 87160 | 0 | | | 20号胶交易所仓单(日,吨) 上海市场国营全乳胶(日,元/吨) | 58968 14900 | -605 -50 上海市场越南3L(日,元/吨) | 15350 | ...