橡胶板块2026年1月第4周报 潘盛杰 研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 橡胶：供应矛盾未超预期，合胶跟随板块走强 ◼【综合分析】 供应方面：天然橡胶呈现国内外供应双降态势。国内云南、海南产区已全面停割，海外泰国北部、东北部及越南产区接近割胶季尾声，仅泰 国南部正值旺产季。顺丁橡胶供应小幅收缩，国内高顺顺丁装置平均开工负荷75.75%，较上周走低0.15个百分点；茂名石化、独山子石化 延续停车，周度检修损失量约2730吨。 需求方面：下游轮胎企业刚需支撑总体平稳。天然橡胶方面，轮胎企业开工波动不大，周内胶价走低刺激下游逢低采购。顺丁橡胶方面，山 东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷62.70%，虽较上周微降0.14个百分点，但较去年同期大幅走高20.70个百分点，显示同比需求明显改善。 库存方面：天然橡胶库存持续累积，青岛地区总库存57.91万吨，较上期增加1.52万吨（涨幅2.7%），其中保税区库存10.49万吨，一般贸 易库存47.42万吨，均呈增长态势。顺丁橡胶库存同样走高，本周增幅达6.83%，受市场价格下行、贸易商开单积极性不佳及套利盘积极出 货但终端接盘有限等因素影响，胶厂及市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of natural rubber futures last week showed a significant increase, with a prior decline followed by a rise. In the future, due to the bottom - cycle reversal logic of the chemical industry, the strong performance of synthetic rubber will drive the overall rise of the rubber sector, and the short - term sentiment may continue. The supply side still has certain pressure, while terminal consumption is good, and the inventory accumulation speed has slightly decreased. Overall, the fundamentals of natural rubber present a multi - empty game situation. Affected by the strong chemical sector and the sharp rise of synthetic rubber, the futures market is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the overall macro sentiment, geopolitical factors, weather disturbances and raw material output in the main rubber - producing areas, inventory accumulation, Sino - US trade relations, and changes in terminal demand [8][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the natural rubber futures main contract RU2605 fluctuated between 15,525 - 16,340 yuan/ton, with a prior decline followed by a rise and a significant overall increase. As of the close on Friday afternoon, January 23, 2026, the main contract was reported at 16,315 yuan/ton, up 480 points or 3.03% for the week [6][15]. 现货价格 - As of January 23, 2026, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai triple smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 16,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,190 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from the previous week [20][24]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis between the two expanded slightly compared with the previous week. As of January 23, 2026, the basis was maintained at - 315 yuan/ton, an expansion of 180 yuan/ton from the previous week. The domestic and international prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared with the previous week [28][31]. Important Market Information - A series of international events such as the Greenland issue, US economic data, and IMF's economic outlook updates were reported. The 2025 Chinese economic data showed that GDP increased by 5% year - on - year to 140.19 trillion yuan, and the automobile industry had good performance with production and sales reaching new highs. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026 [32][35][36]. Supply - Side Situation - As of November 30, 2025, the production in the main natural - rubber - producing countries showed different trends. The total production in November was 1.0515 million tons, a decrease of 19,500 tons or 1.82% from the previous month. As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 800,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%, and the cumulative output was 8.932 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.3%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.01% [42][46][50]. Demand - Side Situation - As of January 22, 2026, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. As of December 31, 2025, China's automobile production and sales in December decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the annual production and sales reached new highs. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks in December increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The monthly output of Chinese tire casings increased year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires increased month - on - month. The automobile sales in major global countries also showed different trends [58][62][65]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of January 23, 2026, the natural - rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,480 tons from the previous week. As of January 18, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 17,000 tons or 1.3%, and the total inventory in Qingdao increased by 16,700 tons or 2.94% [86]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Domestic rubber - producing areas have fully stopped tapping, providing support for rubber prices. Some main producing areas are entering the low - production period, but Thailand's southern region is still in the peak - production period, so the supply side still has pressure. Import volume increased in 2025. Demand side: The operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly, while that of all - steel tire enterprises decreased slightly. The automobile market had good annual performance but a decline in December. Tire exports increased. Inventory side: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, social inventory, and Qingdao's total inventory continued to rise, but the inventory - accumulation rate decreased slightly [87][88]. 后市展望 - The overall situation is similar to the core view, emphasizing the driving effect of the chemical industry and synthetic rubber on the rubber sector, the pressure on the supply side, good terminal consumption, and the slowdown of inventory accumulation. The futures market is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term [89][90]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: The main natural - rubber futures contract is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the short - term callback risk and the pressure around 16,500 yuan/ton. Operation strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see for now, and aggressive traders can consider going long lightly on dips; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [91][92].

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月25日 天然橡胶专题二 优于大市 （1）一年维度来看，Q1 全球主要产区陆续将进入停割期，而春节后是国内 轮胎关键开工季，因此短期节奏预计由工化属性主导，价格受宏观因素影响 大，核心关注春节后的下游开工表现和石化链景气催化。 （2）长期维度来看，天然橡胶价格每轮周期 20 年左右，主要受胶树 10 年 龄左右进入旺产期决定。从具体走势来看，天然橡胶是强顺周期品种，产能 限制作为慢变量更多决定中枢和牛市持续时间，而行情的爆发力需要与大时 代背景下的宏观叙事结合，大周期往往发生于全球或主要经济体的景气上行 阶段。当前全球供应受前期缩种和当下树龄老化影响，天花板已经开始显现， 天然橡胶价格自 2023 年 5 月新开割季以来已经基本确认长期拐点，同时下 游正处 AI 技术革命爆发前夕，新周期蓄势待发。 石化链涨价带动，产能瓶颈明确，2026 年价格预计易涨难跌 天然橡胶：兼具农工化三重属性，短期节奏预计由工化属性主导。天然橡胶 产量长期调节滞后，短期易受天气扰动，下游消费七成来自轮胎，景气和汽 车工业高度绑定。另外合成橡胶部分替代天然橡胶，石化链景气也会影响天 然橡胶估值。综合来看 ...

橡胶：丁二烯带动橡胶上涨 橡胶周报 2026/01/24 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 周度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注：化工大涨带动丁二烯和橡胶大涨 ◆ 公众号五矿微服务，每日早晨有最新版，包括各品种最新的产业链动态和观点，包括橡胶早评。及时性较强。欢迎参考。 注释： 后面几十页的数据，一般投资者可泛读，有兴趣深入研究的可以精读。 周报主要更新产业链数据，制表数据量大。有时候出差调研途中，周报会延迟或取消。 另外周报上的观点更新比较慢，如果需要关注我们的观点的最新更新，可以微信关注五矿期货微服务公众号，每天早上开盘前有我们各品种的最新观点和关键数据更新。 （本页开工率数据来源于卓创，和WIND数据小有区别，趋势相同，差别不大。） ◆ 需求：行业如何？轮胎厂全钢开工率62.62%(-0.31%)。全钢胎需求正常。半钢全钢对欧洲出口预期转弱。 ◆ 交易所+青岛 75.96(1.35)万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the export transactions of some domestic butadiene resources drove up the raw material market, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber and affecting production profits. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, and traders actively supported prices. However, downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded rapidly after a significant decline [6]. - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic butadiene rubber plants, and supply has remained at a high level. Sufficient spot resources have led to continuous price - pressure from downstream buyers, putting pressure on production profits. Some producers' inventories increased this week, while the price advantage of arbitrage resources led to increased low - price procurement by downstream, and traders' inventories decreased. It is expected that the inventories of producers and traders will change little in the short term [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire enterprises increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, while most other enterprises maintained stable production. The shipment pressure of all - steel tire enterprises increased, and some enterprises moderately controlled production, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - For the br2603 contract, short - term traders need to beware of the callback correction caused by the rapid rise of the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [6] Summary by Directory 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The export transactions of domestic butadiene resources drove up raw material prices, increasing the production cost of butadiene rubber. The bearish sentiment in the spot market subsided, but downstream procurement was slow. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market rebounded after a decline [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply of butadiene rubber remains high, and downstream procurement is still pressuring prices. Producer inventories increased, and trader inventories decreased. It is expected that inventories will change little in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises showed mixed trends, and it is expected to be slightly weak and stable in the short term [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the br2603 contract, short - term traders should beware of callback correction and wait and see for the time being [6] 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 9.44% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Inter - Period Spread**: As of January 23, the 3 - 4 spread of butadiene rubber was - 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 23, the warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber were 8,120 tons, an increase of 1,590 tons from last week [20]. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of January 22, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 355 yuan/ton from last week [26] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of January 22, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 567 US dollars/ton, an increase of 18.5 US dollars/ton from last week. The CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of January 23, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.45%, an increase of 0.08% from last week. The port inventory of butadiene was 34,500 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from last week [32]. Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In December 2025, the domestic production of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. As of January 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 76.12%, a decrease of 3.45% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit**: As of January 22, the domestic production profit of butadiene rubber was - 1,002 yuan/ton, a decrease of 281 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the social inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 35,400 tons, an increase of 460 tons from last week. The producer inventory was 29,050 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 6,350 tons, a decrease of 1,690 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises showed mixed trends this week [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In December 2025, China's tire exports were 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire exports were 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38%. The exports of passenger car tires and truck and bus tires showed different trends [48] 4. Option Market Analysis - Not mentioned in the report

证券之星消息，1月23日橡胶板块较上一交易日上涨1.54%，海达股份领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4136.16，上涨0.33%。深证成指报收于14439.66，上涨0.79%。橡胶板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300731 科创新源 | | 4072.54万 | 5.26% | -287.27万 | -0.37% | -3785.27万 | -4.89% | | 300121 | 阳谷华泰 | 2477.41万 | 8.38% | -1887.69万 | -6.38% | -589.72万 | -1.99% | | 300320 海达股份 | | 1444.52万 | 5.63% | -447.51万 | -1.74% | -997.01万 | -3.88% | | 920665 | 科强股份 | 1130.87万 | 5.72% | -69.60万 | -0.35% | -1 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant price increase in synthetic rubber, which surged by 7% in the night trading session, influencing natural rubber and 20 rubber prices to rise over 2% [3][9] - The primary driver for the increase in synthetic rubber prices is the rise in upstream butadiene prices, which has pushed the cost center of synthetic rubber higher [3][9] - Domestic ethylene production facilities are facing profit pressures, leading to reduced operating rates in the Asian region, which in turn has caused a decline in butadiene production loads [3][9] Group 2 - International butadiene prices have risen, and domestic port inventories have significantly decreased, indicating a potential for sustained high prices in the short term [3][9] - On the demand side, the operating load of domestic tire manufacturers for semi-steel tires increased to 74.39%, up 8.5 percentage points from the previous week, although it is down 4.42% year-on-year [4][10] - The operating load for full-steel tires in Shandong reached 65.52%, up 7.5 percentage points from the previous week and up 5.44% year-on-year [4][10] Group 3 - As of January 16, the inventory of full-steel tire products was 46.1 days, an increase of 1.5 days week-on-week, while semi-steel tire inventory was 47.9 days, up 0.5 days week-on-week [4][10] - The automotive production and sales for 2025 are projected to reach 34.531 million and 34.4 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4%, marking a historical high and maintaining the global leading position for 17 consecutive years [4][10] - Tire manufacturers are actively replenishing stock at lower prices, which supports rubber prices in the short term, with a focus on monitoring butadiene price fluctuations [4][10]

Price Trends - The national production material market prices increased by 0.4% from January 12 to January 18 compared to the previous week [1] - Non-ferrous metal prices continued to rise, with zinc, aluminum, and copper increasing by 3.7%, 1.7%, and 1.4% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices saw slight increases, with urea and compound fertilizer rising by 0.7% and 0.1% respectively [3] Commodity Fluctuations - Rubber prices showed mixed trends, with synthetic rubber increasing by 1.3% while natural rubber decreased by 0.3% [4] - Coal prices experienced slight fluctuations, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 779 yuan and 1035 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, while anthracite coal decreased by 0.4% to 1141 yuan per ton [4] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and methanol all decreasing by 0.1%, while polypropylene increased by 0.6% [5] Fuel and Steel Prices - Wholesale prices of finished oil remained stable with slight declines, as 95-octane gasoline and 92-octane gasoline remained flat, while 0-octane diesel decreased by 0.2% [6] - Steel prices experienced slight declines, with rebar, hot-rolled strip, and channel steel priced at 3369 yuan, 3518 yuan, and 3556 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [6]

格林大华期货 我们专注期货研究 2026年01月23日 08:55 星期五 研究院《市场快讯 -- 成本支撑带动昨夜BR强势涨停》 昨夜丁二烯橡胶（BR）主力合约强势涨停，收盘价12930元/吨。丁二烯作为BR最 主要的原料来源，其价格直接影响BR期现价格走势。自25年12月以来，BR期价便在 丁二烯的带动下持续走强。近期受进口船货到港有限和下游产品开工率较高因素影 响，丁二烯港口库存明显减少，部分生产企业还有外售丁二烯货源的情况出现，反映 出当下丁二烯基本面的强势表现。同时中期来看，今年上半年丁二烯无新增装置投 产，加剧市场对其供应紧缺的担忧。此外，近期资金快速流向能化板块也令橡胶品种 迎来资金助推。 综合来看, 昨夜丁二烯橡胶涨停主要是受原料+资金共同作用的结果，其自身供需情 况并未出现明显变动。短期由于丁二烯货源偏紧，预计仍会对BR价格形成提振，交 易层面主要警惕情绪释放后的回调风险。 研究员：李方磊 联系方式：19339940612 期货交易咨询号: Z0021311 格林大华期货研究院-证监许可【2011】1288号 免责声明：本内容及数据结果仅供交流参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 周四油价回落，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.26 美元至 59.36 美 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/桶，跌幅 2.08%。布伦特 3 月合约收盘下跌 1.18 美元至 64.06 美元/桶，跌幅 1.81%。SC2603 以 436.6 元/桶收盘，下跌 9.7 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为 2.17%。EIA 报告显示，截至 1 月 16 日当周原油库存 | | | | 增加 360 万桶，远超分析师预测的 110 万桶增幅，也高于美国石 | | | | 油协会前日报告的 300 万桶增量。汽油库存触及 2021 年以来最高 | | | 原油 | 水平，出口量下降逾 50 万桶/日。乌克兰安全局的无人机袭击了 | 震荡 | | | 位于俄罗斯克拉斯诺达尔边疆区的塔曼石油天然气码头，该港口 | | | | 是黑海地区最大的港口之一，负责石油、天然气和氨的转运。其 | | | | 石油产品和液化气储罐容量超过 100 万立方米。当前油价表现仍 | | ...