SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 10月13日（周一），德意志银行预计2025年第四季度至2026年第一季度全球铜矿供应将转为负增长，导致短期价 格峰值达到平均每吨11,000美元。 德意志银行称矿山供应紧张应足以抵消需求疲软对价格造成的下行风险。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游 需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局，上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》 中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图：https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the copper price rose and then fell due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, with Trump threatening to impose high tariffs on China again, which caused market panic. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed a large divergence between hawks and doves on the pace of interest rate cuts this year. The US government shutdown may delay important inflation and employment data, affecting the Fed's decision on future interest rate cut paths. These factors dampened market risk appetite, causing the London copper price to be blocked after rising to $11,000. On the fundamental side, Teck Resources significantly lowered its production forecasts for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project, intensifying concerns about global mine - end supply. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline, social inventories are running at a low level, and the near - month futures market maintains a flat - water structure. Overall, although the supply shortage disturbances at overseas resource ends continue to heat up, Sino - US trade frictions reappeared last week, and the Fed's hawks and doves have differences on the interest rate cut rhythm. In the context of the spread of overseas macro - panic sentiment, the copper price is expected to enter a shock adjustment in the short term [2][3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: From September 26th to October 10th, LME copper rose from $10,205/ton to $10,374/ton, an increase of $169 or 1.66%; COMEX copper rose from 476.45 cents/pound to 484.5 cents/pound, an increase of 8.05 cents or 1.69%; SHFE copper rose from 82,470 yuan/ton to 85,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,440 yuan or 4.17%; international copper rose from 72,870 yuan/ton to 73,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,010 yuan or 1.39%. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.08 to 8.28, an increase of 0.2. The LME spot premium/discount rose from -$33.91/ton to -$31.19/ton, an increase of $2.72 or - 8.02%. The Shanghai spot premium/discount rose from - 5 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: From September 26th to October 10th, LME inventory decreased from 144,400 tons to 139,400 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons or 3.46%; COMEX inventory increased from 322,284 short tons to 339,525 short tons, an increase of 17,241 short tons or 5.35%; SHFE inventory increased from 98,761 tons to 109,672 tons, an increase of 10,911 tons or 11.05%; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased from 76,300 tons to 88,000 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons or 15.33%. The total inventory increased from 641,745 tons to 676,597 tons, an increase of 34,852 tons or 5.43% [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The rise and fall of the copper price last week were mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions and the Fed's internal differences on interest rate cuts. Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on China and the possible delay of important economic data due to the US government shutdown dampened market risk appetite. On the fundamental side, the extension of the shutdown of Teck Resources' QB project and production problems in other mines intensified concerns about global mine - end supply [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of September 26th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 641,000 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 3,200 tons, the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts decreased to 7.15%; SHFE inventory decreased by 7,000 tons; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The rebound of the Shanghai - London ratio last week was mainly due to the Fed's overall interest rate cuts falling short of expectations, which boosted the US dollar index to rise from a low level [8]. - **Macro Situation**: Trump's threat to impose tariffs on China and export controls on key software hit market risk appetite, causing a sharp decline in overseas financial market prices. The Fed's September meeting minutes showed differences among officials on the rate and frequency of interest rate cuts. The continued shutdown of the US government may make the Fed lose economic data as a policy reference. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, indicating that manufacturing production activities are accelerating and market demand is improving [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Teck Resources lowered its production guidance for this year and next due to the extended shutdown of the QB project. Panama's copper mine has no hope of resuming production this year, and some mines in Indonesia and Chile are also facing production declines. Global refined copper production is expected to decline slightly in October due to the shortage of overseas ore supply and the new waste copper policy. In terms of demand, the construction progress of power grid investment projects has been postponed, the start - up rate of copper cable production is lower than usual, but the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries show certain demand [10]. Industry News - **Chilean Copper Mines**: Codelco's copper production in August decreased by 25% due to a fatal collapse accident at the El Teniente copper mine. The Escondida copper mine's production was basically stable, while the Collahuasi copper mine's production decreased by 27% due to lower ore grades [12]. - **Teck Resources**: Due to the extended shutdown of the QB project to raise the tailings dam height, Teck Resources lowered its 2025 production guidance from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons and its 2026 production forecast from 280,000 - 310,000 tons to 200,000 - 235,000 tons. The net cash unit cost in 2025 is expected to be between $2.65 - $3.00 per pound, higher than the previous forecast [13]. - **Freeport - McMoRan**: The company found the remains of all 7 missing workers at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia after a mudslide. The mine is expected to fully resume operations in 2027, and some unaffected areas may restart production later this year. The company has declared force majeure on its Indonesian freight and lowered its production forecasts for this year and next [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply at the mine end is tight, and the continuous low operation of TC prices has become the norm, which keeps copper prices in a state where they are more likely to rise than fall. At the same time, the continuous record - high gold prices have stimulated the financial attributes of copper. Therefore, in terms of operation, it is still recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging, with the recommended buying range between 85,600 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On October 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 84,610 yuan/ton and closed at 86,750 yuan/ton, a 4.38% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 87,400 yuan/ton and closed at 86,650 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot price ranged from 85,400 to 86,080 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 15 yuan/ton, slightly up from the previous day. The copper futures price rose from 84,800 yuan/ton in the morning, reaching a maximum of 85,980 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of over 3,000 yuan. The market showed a Contango structure, and the import loss widened to over a thousand yuan. The rapid rise in copper prices suppressed downstream procurement. The purchase sentiment in Shanghai was weak, and the transaction prices in Jiangsu and other places gradually fell to a discount of 60 - 70 yuan/ton. The Shanghai inventory has not accumulated yet, and imported and domestic supplies are still on the way, expected to arrive gradually over the weekend [2] 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - On October 9, the bill proposed by the US Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to get enough votes in the Senate. US President Trump planned to cut some federal projects popular with Democrats. New York Fed President Williams supported further interest - rate cuts this year to deal with the possible sharp slowdown in the labor market. The US Treasury Secretary has completed the last round of interviews for the next Fed Chairman candidate, and Trump will make a final decision from four candidates [3] 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis 3.2.1 Mine End - Canadian miner Teck Resources Ltd. lowered the copper production guidance for its flagship Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile before 2028 after a company - wide operational review and merger with Anglo American. The copper production guidance for next year is adjusted to 20 - 23.5 tons, previously 28 - 31 tons. The expected production for the year after next is 24 - 27.5 tons, and 22 - 25.5 tons in 2028, all lower than previous forecasts, mainly due to tailings problems related to mine waste treatment [4] 3.2.2 Smelting and Import - The International Copper Study Group expects global copper mine production to increase by 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. Global refined copper production is expected to increase by about 3.4% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026. Global refined copper apparent consumption is expected to increase by about 3% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. There will be a supply surplus of about 178,000 tons in 2025 and a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. European copper producer Aurubis raised the European refined copper selling price for 2026 to a record high of $315 per ton premium over LME copper prices [5] 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - According to the Mysteel survey, the long National Day holiday had little impact on the production and sales of most enterprises, and the resumption of work was in line with expectations. With the resumption of work, the output of copper rod enterprises recovered. After the holiday, the supply and demand of the copper rod market both showed an upward trend, and the market activity increased significantly [6] 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 139,475 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,880 tons to 29,703 tons. On October 9, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 166,300 tons, a change of 18,000 tons from the previous week [7] 3.5 Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a buy - on - dips hedging strategy and a recommended buying range between 85,600 yuan/ton and 86,000 yuan/ton. Arbitrage is put on hold, and for options, a short put at 85,000 yuan/ton is suggested [8]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have surged significantly before the National Day holiday, reaching new highs, driven by macroeconomic policies, supply-demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. The outlook for copper prices post-holiday remains optimistic, although caution is advised regarding potential corrections [3][4][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The tight supply of copper is a major focus, with disruptions in major mines like Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia exacerbating the situation. Despite some production increases due to high prices, actual output remains constrained [4][6]. - In September, the average price of 1 copper in China was 80,775 yuan/ton, a 2.11% increase from August, and a 7.99% increase year-on-year. On September 30, the price surged to 83,140 yuan/ton, marking a significant rise [5]. - Global copper mine supply has been impacted by incidents in Indonesia and production cuts in Chile, leading to a tightening of copper concentrate supply [6][7]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices will continue to show strength in the fourth quarter, with the Shanghai copper futures expected to trade between 79,000 and 85,000 yuan/ton. Factors supporting this include ongoing supply constraints and robust demand from sectors like electric grids and new energy vehicles [11]. - The financial attributes of copper have become more pronounced, with speculative buying increasing due to concerns over economic stagnation in the U.S. following interest rate cuts [7][8]. Impact on Industry Players - The rise in copper prices will have differentiated impacts on upstream and downstream companies. Companies with their own mining resources are likely to benefit the most, while those reliant on purchased raw materials may face margin pressures [9][10]. - Downstream companies are advised to utilize copper futures and options to hedge against rising costs, while upstream firms need to align their sales strategies with price movements to mitigate risks [12][13]. Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to look for buying opportunities after price corrections, while remaining vigilant about macroeconomic data and policy changes that could lead to volatility [12][13].

Group 1 - During the National Day holiday, overseas liquidity easing expectations boosted risk assets, with copper prices reaching around $108,000, the highest since May 2022 [1] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a decline in ADP employment data, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs in September, raising expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - Chile's copper production fell by 9.9% year-on-year in August, marking the largest decline in over two years, primarily due to an accident at Codelco's El Teniente mine [1] Group 2 - Global copper mine vulnerabilities have been increasingly exposed this year, complicating negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas miners, leading to concerns about supply tightness [2] - Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia faced force majeure, further escalating supply concerns and contributing to rising copper prices [2] - LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, while COMEX copper inventory has accumulated to over 330,000 tons, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [2]

Market Overview - During the National Day holiday, global financial markets faced multiple risk events, including the U.S. government shutdown entering its eighth day and political changes in Japan and France impacting the markets [1] - U.S. stock markets continued to rise, with major indices reaching record highs, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - The dollar index reached a two-month high, while the Japanese yen fell to its lowest level since mid-February [1][2] Commodity Market - LME copper prices hit a 16-month high due to supply concerns, reaching $10,815 per ton, influenced by operational disruptions in major mines [3] - COMEX gold prices surpassed $4,000 per ounce for the first time, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties [6] - Oil prices fell to a four-month low, with concerns over oversupply and OPEC's decision to maintain a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day [7][17] Agricultural Commodities - CBOT soybean futures rebounded after hitting a seven-week low, supported by lower yield forecasts and expectations of improved demand [9][10] Central Bank Insights - The Federal Reserve noted increased risks in the employment market while remaining vigilant about inflation, with discussions on potential interest rate adjustments ongoing [11][12] - The New Zealand central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points, indicating concerns over economic weakness [13]

Group 1 - Citi upgraded Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US) from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to supply chain disruptions and favorable macroeconomic factors expected to drive copper prices to historical highs in the next 18 months [1] - Citi forecasts copper prices to reach $12,000 per ton by mid-2026, supported by unprecedented mine shutdowns, strong market demand, and macro trends such as U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] - The recent market sell-off triggered by the Grasberg mine incident has led to Freeport-McMoRan being undervalued compared to peers, creating a "rare opportunity" for investors [1] Group 2 - Citi acknowledges that the recovery time for Grasberg's production may exceed official guidance, with a model predicting a nearly 50% reduction in output by 2026, although the ore body structure remains intact [1] - The market's concerns about risks have been overly reflected in the stock price discount, with estimates suggesting that even a two-year shutdown would only decrease the company's net asset value (NAV) by about 15% [1] - Freeport-McMoRan's U.S. operations have growth potential due to improved production efficiency and potential tariffs on refined copper imports, which could enhance company profitability [1] Group 3 - Citi maintains a "Sell" rating on Southern Copper (SCCO.US) due to overvaluation, while keeping "Buy" ratings on First Quantum and Ivanhoe Mines, and a "Neutral" rating on Teck Resources (TECK.US) [2] - Citi's basic forecast indicates that copper supply shortages will ease post-2026 with increased production from Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, and other major projects, yet remains optimistic about Freeport-McMoRan's performance [2] - The company's stock is expected to outperform the market as investor confidence in its recovery plan strengthens and its position as the largest publicly traded copper mining company solidifies [2]

智利《金融日报》9月29日报道，英美资源集团智利首席执行官伊达尔戈表示，尽 管智利政府将在大选结束后的半年内易主，但不会影响该公司与智利国家铜业公司签 署的"历史性"合作协议，该协议旨在增加智利洛斯布朗塞斯和安第纳两地铜矿开采，预 计每年可额外生产12万吨铜。伊强调，该项目已得到智不同党派支持，且引发外界广 泛关注，双方联手不仅将巩固智利作为世界最大铜生产国地位，且将满足全球对关键 矿产需求的快速增长。 （原标题：英美资源集团称智利大选将不会影响公司在智铜业发展） ...

Group 1: Gaza Conflict Developments - Hamas has submitted a response to Trump's "20-point plan" and expressed willingness to negotiate through mediators for its implementation [1] - Hamas agrees to transfer governance of Gaza to an independent Palestinian authority and will participate in discussions regarding the future of Gaza and Palestinian rights [1] - Trump believes Hamas is ready for lasting peace based on their recent statement and calls for an immediate halt to Israeli bombings to ensure the safe rescue of hostages [1] Group 2: U.S. Government Funding Issues - The U.S. Senate voted against a temporary funding bill proposed by Democrats, resulting in a continued government shutdown [3] - The Republican proposal for a temporary funding bill also failed to pass, leading to potential operational disruptions in government agencies [3] - The U.S. Department of Energy indicated that it has enough funding to operate for only about eight more days before entering emergency shutdown procedures [3] Group 3: Copper Market Insights - LME copper prices have reached a new high of over $10,500 per ton, driven by supply disruptions and changes in macroeconomic policies [5] - The Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia experienced a significant accident, tightening market supply expectations and prompting analysts to revise global copper supply forecasts [5][6] - High copper prices are supported by a combination of reduced global supply, U.S. import behavior, and strong domestic demand in sectors like electric power and new energy vehicles [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that copper prices may continue to rise due to ongoing supply tightness, but caution that high prices could lead to reduced demand from industries [7][8] - The domestic copper processing industry is facing challenges with high costs leading to potential production cuts, while demand remains robust in the "golden September and silver October" season [7][8] - Despite the bullish outlook, concerns about global trade tensions and cautious inventory management among end-users may temper expectations for sustained price increases [8]

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights a significant rise in copper-related stocks due to the production halt at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which may lead to increased copper prices and exacerbate raw material shortages for smelting plants [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Hudbay Minerals saw an increase of over 8% [1] - Ero Copper rose by more than 6% [1] - Freeport-McMoRan gained over 5% [1] - Southern Copper and Taseko Mines both increased by more than 4% [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The Grasberg copper mine, the second-largest globally, has halted production due to an accident, which could lead to a long-term disruption [1] - ING analysts suggest that the prolonged interruption at Grasberg may further elevate copper prices and worsen the existing raw material shortages faced by smelting plants [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs' latest report indicates that the surge in AI demand and escalating geopolitical tensions have made aging power grids a "vulnerable link" in energy security for Western countries [1] - The need for power grid upgrades is expected to drive copper prices to $10,750 per ton by 2027 [1]