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新能源及有色金属日报:目前仓单去化明显,升贴水预计回升-20250523
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 05:14
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option strategy: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with an operating range of approximately 75,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices and month - to - month spreads, downstream procurement is cautious, and inventory may still increase slightly. With the release of some delivery goods this week, it is difficult to maintain high premiums [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On May 22, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,010 yuan/ton and closed at 77,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 77,730 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the afternoon close [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - On May 22, SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was at a premium of 110 - 160 yuan/ton to the current 2506 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Low - priced goods had good trading volume. Currently, low - priced goods have been mostly purchased, and warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, but warehouse inventory has not decreased as expected. The premium is expected to have limited upward movement [2] 1.3 Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Trump tax reform bill passed the House of Representatives and is to be reviewed by the Senate. The US Senate voted to terminate California's ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles. Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decrease, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. Iran vowed to respond "devastatingly" to any Israeli aggression [3] - **Domestic**: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on May 23 [3] - **Mine End**: NGEx Minerals announced a new discovery in the Lunahuasi copper - gold project in Argentina, with high - grade copper - gold porphyry systems. Solaris Resources and Royal Gold reached a 200 million - dollar financing agreement for the Warintza copper - gold project in Ecuador [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.5135 million tons, consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March, the production was 7.2832 million tons, consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons [5] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and downstream consumption had limited improvement. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,925 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.399 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [5] 2. Tables and Figures - The report provides 10 figures and 1 table, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium quotes, price differences between refined and scrap copper, copper import profits and losses, and various inventory data [8] 3. Spot and Warehouse Receipt Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [29][30]
广金期货策略早餐-20250522
Guang Jin Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 09:08
策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 (2025.05.22) 商品期货和期权 金属及新能源材料板块 品种:铜 日内观点:77000-78700 区间波动 中期观点:66000-90000 区间波动 参考策略:震荡操作思路 核心逻辑: 供给方面,智利铜矿巨头安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta)与冶炼厂的年中谈判可能以 0 加工费(TC/RCs)为起点。艾芬豪宣布,目前该矿铜资源总量为 937 万吨,较 2023 年 11 月估算的 500 万吨增长 89%。中国 2025 年 4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量为 125.4 万吨,同比 增加 9%;1-4 月累计产量为 478.1 万吨,同比增加 5.6%。中国 4 月铜矿砂及其精矿进口量 为 292.44 万吨,比上升 22.20%,同比增长 25.62%。尽管 4 月有冶炼厂有检修计划, 但华东新厂投产西南某厂提产,炼厂废铜、阳极板储备充足,硫酸价格仍 处高位弥补亏损,以及港口铜精矿库存增加支撑生产,使得 4 月铜产量环 比小增。进入 5 月,SMM 统计,有 5 家冶炼厂有检修计划,但 4 月检修 的冶炼厂恢复正常生产,复产的量甚至要多于检修影响量。此外,由于目 前港 ...
建信期货铜期货日报-20250522
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:55
行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 22 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1:沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2:伦铜走势及价差 沪铜震荡偏强,主力合约重回牛熊线上方,日内主要是受到美元走弱和最大消费 国中国出台刺激措施带来支撑,不过国内期现价差受到进口货源以及仓单流出冲 击,现货升水坍塌,日内现货升水跌 115 至 275,盘面近月价差降至 290,现货进 口亏损扩大至 450 附近,海外库存延续 LME 下降而 COMEX 增加,总库存依旧在 32 万吨附近,短期内外现货市场转宽松对铜价的支撑有所弱化。不过近期市场在传 闻年中冶炼厂加工费谈判,从目前消息来看下半年 ...
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250521
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates were both cut by 10 basis points, in line with market expectations. A new round of deposit rate cuts may drive more funds into the stock market, bond market, and wealth management products, bringing new liquidity to the capital market. The decline in LPR is expected to boost residents' housing consumption and is more significant for the stock market from the perspective of investment yield and wealth effect [7]. - The precious metals sector rebounded significantly last night, with gold rising nearly 2%. Due to factors such as the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April, gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Since May, the stock index futures market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is mainly driven by policy easing and lower interest rates, but the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur [10][11]. - The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation. With the approaching of the rainy season in Southwest China and the expected resumption of production in Northwest China, supply may increase, while demand remains weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Last night, the precious metals sector rebounded strongly, with gold rising nearly 2%. The reasons for the rebound include the setbacks in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations, the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's, and the increase in China's gold imports in April. Gold still has long - term allocation value [8][9]. - Gold trend strength is 1, and silver trend strength is 1 [22]. Stock Index Futures - Since May, the market has continued to rise after filling the gap caused by reciprocal tariffs. The upward movement is driven by policy easing and lower interest rates. However, the macro - economic fundamentals are complex, and short - term fluctuations may occur. Overall, the market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, but short - term disturbances from the real economy should be noted [10][11]. Industrial Silicon - The fundamental situation is weak. Supply is expected to increase as silicon plants in Southwest and Northwest China may resume production, while demand remains weak, mainly for rigid replenishment. It is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Industrial silicon trend strength is - 1 [50]. Copper - Copper inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the price. Macro - news includes Japan's consideration of accepting US tariff cuts and the progress of the India - US trade agreement. Micro - news includes the cooperation between Codelco and Rio Tinto and the clearance of scrap copper in the US. China's refined copper production in April 2025 increased year - on - year [24][26]. - Copper trend strength is 1 [26]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, and alumina is expected to trade in a range. An alumina plant in Shanxi postponed its maintenance, and China's alumina exports in April 2025 increased year - on - year while imports decreased [27][29]. - Aluminum trend strength is 0, and alumina trend strength is 0 [29]. Zinc - Zinc is in a range - adjustment phase. High - profile news includes the prediction of the EU - US negotiation by Goldman Sachs and the progress of the India - US and Japan - US trade agreements [30][31]. - Zinc trend strength is 0 [31]. Lead - Lead is expected to trade in a range. Similar to zinc, high - profile news includes international trade - related news [33]. - Lead trend strength is 0 [33]. Tin - Tin is in a narrow - range oscillation. Macro and industry news includes multiple international events such as the potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by Israel [35][37]. - Tin trend strength is - 1 [38]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, the contradiction in nickel ore provides support, but the economic viability of conversion may limit the upside potential. For stainless steel, the cost bottom is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement. Indonesia has adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products, and there are also news about production and trade in the nickel industry [39][40][43]. - Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless steel trend strength is 0 [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate is in a weak oscillation, and attention should be paid to the trading situation at the mine end. The prices of lithium carbonate and related raw materials are declining, and China's imports of lithium - related products in April 2025 showed different trends [45][47]. - Lithium carbonate trend strength is - 1 [47]. Iron Ore - Short - term positive factors have been realized, and the driving force for price increases is slowing down. The LPR rate cut on May 20 is the latest macro - news [51][52]. - Iron ore trend strength is - 1 [52]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation. News includes South Korea's anti - dumping tax on stainless steel plates and China's steel production data in April 2025 [54][57]. - Rebar trend strength is 0, and hot - rolled coil trend strength is 0 [57][58]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the resonance of the black - metal sector, and silicomanganese is expected to fluctuate weakly as Australian manganese ore shipments resume. There is a lot of news about the spot prices, production, and trade of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [59][62]. - Ferrosilicon trend strength is 0, and silicomanganese trend strength is 0 [63]. Coke and Coking Coal - Both coke and coking coal are in a bottom - oscillation phase. There is information about their spot prices, basis, and position changes [64][66]. - Coke trend strength is 0, and coking coal trend strength is 0 [67]. Steam Coal - Steam coal is expected to oscillate weakly as coal mine inventories increase. There is information about its spot prices and position changes [68][69]. - Steam coal trend strength is 0 [70]. Logs - Logs are in a weak oscillation. No specific analysis details are provided [71].
铜:缺乏驱动,价格震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 01:26
商 品 研 究 2025 年 05 月 19 日 铜:缺乏驱动,价格震荡 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 jixianfei015111@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,140 | 0.35% | 77670 | -0.60% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,440 | -1.67% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 72,311 | -37,865 | 180,490 | -6,084 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 7,610 | 1,376 | 294,000 | -171 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 63,247 | 2,712 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 179,375 | -5,275 | 40.08% | -1 ...
停牌!云南铜业:筹划购买凉山矿业40%股份
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-18 02:27
云南铜业近日公告,公司正在筹划发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金事项,因有关事项尚存不确定性,根据深圳证券交易所的相关规定,经公 司申请,公司证券自5月13日开市起停牌。 Yunnan Copper Industry recently announced that the company is planning to issue shares to purchase assets and raise supporting funds. Due to the uncertainties surrounding these matters, in accordance with the relevant regulations of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the company's securities will be suspended from trading starting May 13. 公司预计在不超过10个交易日的时间内披露本次交易方案,即在2025年5月27 日前按照《公开发行证券的公司信息披露内容与格式准则第26号 ——上市公司重大资产重 组》的要求披露相关信息。 ...
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250514
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 02:55
所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-14 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-14 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 美国 4 月通胀数据平稳,或是通胀风暴前的平静 观点分享: 5 月 13 日周二,美国劳工统计局公布 4 月 CPI 数据,CPI 同比增长 2.3%,预期 2.4%, 前值 2.4%;CPI 环比增长 0.2%,预期 0.3%,前值-0.4%;核心 CPI 同比增长 2.8%,为自 2021 年春季通胀爆发以来的最低速度;预期 2.8%,前值 2.8%;核心 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%, 预期 0.3% ,前值 0.1%。所谓的"超级核心 CPI"(服务业除住房外)同比跌至 3.01%,为 2021 年 12 月以来的最低水平。众所周知,4 月以来,特朗普开始了过山车般的关税政策, 然而通胀数据依然保持稳定,一种合理的解释是:大部分市场主体以观望和消化库存为首要 策略,而不是因关税而调整价格。但库存总有耗尽的时候,价格该调整还是得调整,4 月的 平静大概率如台风登录前一日的风和日丽,只是大风大雨到来的前奏。尽管特朗普已经在社 交媒体上表达"美联储必须 ...
Codelco和力拓同意加强合作,共同开发阿塔卡马地区的矿区
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-13 13:31
Group 1 - Codelco and Rio Tinto announced a new collaboration agreement to accelerate the potential development of mining areas around Nuevo Cobre in the Atacama region of Chile [1] - Nuevo Cobre is a joint venture between Rio Tinto (57.74%) and Codelco (42.26%), established in 2023 to explore and develop mineral resources located 10 kilometers southeast of the Potrerillos smelter [1] - The agreement includes the formation of a joint committee, with both companies providing equal funding for a 12-month preliminary concept study, which may be extended [1] Group 2 - The collaboration aims to maximize the value of the region, effectively develop mineral resources, and explore synergies and opportunities related to infrastructure [2] - The study will focus on development pathways while considering the highest social and environmental standards, local community interests, and the development of the Atacama region [2] - Codelco's chairman emphasized that collaboration is fundamental to sustainable mining and is the best way to address increasingly challenging project demands [1]
建信期货铜期货日报-20250513
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 05:13
行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 13 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1:沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2:伦铜走势及价差 沪铜上涨,中美会谈取得实质性进展推动市场乐观情绪,盘后发布的联合公告显 示中美均将双方关税降至了可贸易范畴内,短期关税对双方经济的冲击担忧均下 降,利多风险资产。05 合约交割临近,在 05-06back 依旧维持在 300+情况下,现 货市场转为贴水报价,但若贴水扩大或将带动交割情绪上升,考虑到 5 月有累库 预期且日内公布的库存累库 0.3 万吨,预计本次交割能顺利完成,5 月国内产量 继续增加而需求放缓,预计盘面高 BACK 结构难持 ...
关注中美谈判结果,铜价震荡为主
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - Overall, the Sino-US economic and trade meeting achieved substantial progress and reached important consensus, and the two sides will issue a joint statement soon. The Fed maintains a hawkish stance and delays interest rate cuts, and the unexpected recovery of the eurozone economy will continue to be loose. Domestically, the central bank has launched a package of financial incremental policy combinations to stabilize market confidence. Fundamentally, the medium-term tightening pattern of concentrates remains unchanged, the supply of imported refined copper in China is tight, the premium of Yangshan warehouse receipts is high, and social inventories continue to decline. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile at a high level, waiting for the details of the Sino-US trade negotiations to be disclosed [3][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - LME copper rose from $9,125.50/ton on April 30 to $9,439.00/ton on May 9, an increase of $313.50 or 3.44% [4]. - COMEX copper rose from 461 cents/pound on April 30 to 465.4 cents/pound on May 9, an increase of 4.4 cents or 0.95% [4]. - SHFE copper rose from 77,220 yuan/ton on April 30 to 77,450 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 230 yuan or 0.30% [4]. - International copper rose from 68,470 yuan/ton on April 30 to 68,750 yuan/ton on May 9, an increase of 280 yuan or 0.41% [4]. - The Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.21 [4]. - The LME spot premium changed from -$6.80/ton on April 30 to $49.19/ton on May 9, an increase of $55.99 or -823.38% [4]. - The Shanghai spot premium decreased from 230 yuan/ton on April 30 to 80 yuan/ton on May 9, a decrease of 150 yuan [4]. - LME inventory decreased from 200,150 tons on April 30 to 191,775 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,375 tons or 4.18% [7]. - COMEX inventory increased from 144,023 short tons on April 30 to 160,250 short tons on May 9, an increase of 16,227 short tons or 11.27% [7]. - SHFE inventory decreased from 89,289 tons on April 30 to 80,687 tons on May 9, a decrease of 8,602 tons or 9.63% [7]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased from 93,500 tons on April 30 to 90,500 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,000 tons or 3.21% [7]. - Total inventory decreased from 526,962 tons on April 30 to 523,212 tons on May 9, a decrease of 3,750 tons or 0.71% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices fluctuated at a high level last week. The start of Sino-US economic and trade talks eased the tense situation, and the market adopted a wait-and-see attitude. The Fed's hawkish stance delayed interest rate cuts, slightly boosting the US dollar. The negative effects of tariff shocks on the global economy gradually emerged, hindering the upward movement of copper prices. However, the shortage of refined copper overseas provided strong fundamental support. Domestically, a package of financial incremental policies by the central bank boosted market confidence, and China's acceleration of the domestic economic cycle and the construction of a strategic cooperation system with "Belt and Road" countries will effectively offset the negative impact of US tariffs [2][8]. - As of May 9, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 523,000 tons, and the global inventory decreased slightly. Among them, LME copper inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the LME 0 - 3 shifted to a B structure, with the proportion of cancelled warrants continuing to rise to 43.1%. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 8,000 tons, showing obvious characteristics of the consumption peak season. Bonded area inventory decreased by 3,000 tons. Last week, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium rose to $110, reaching a two-year high. The COMEX US copper premium narrowed to $600 - 800/ton, but overseas deliverable supplies continued to flow into North America, causing the COMEX visible inventory to rise to 160,000 tons at a high level. The Shanghai-London ratio decreased to 8.21 mainly due to the recent significant appreciation of the RMB [8]. - Sino-US economic and trade high-level meetings are imminent. The global trade situation is gradually easing and moving in a favorable direction. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5% in its May meeting, and Powell said that there is no need to rush to cut interest rates. Domestically, the central bank cut the 7-day reverse repurchase rate by 0.1% to 1.4% in early May, cut the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5%, and is expected to release about 1 trillion yuan of medium- and long-term liquidity into the market. The central bank also announced a series of other financial policies to boost the confidence of China's capital market [10]. - This week, the spot TC widened to -$43/ton. The global mine end's medium-term tightening pattern remains unchanged. In terms of refined copper, China's refined copper output in April was 1.126 million tons, continuing to rise month-on-month, but the imported supplies were scarce in early May. From the demand side, power grid investment projects have started one after another, and the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%. The new energy vehicle production and sales growth rate exceeded 40%, and the traditional industry showed peak season characteristics. The domestic social inventory continued to decline significantly to around 12 tons, and the near-month contract on the disk maintained a large B structure [11]. 3.3 Industry News - First Quantum's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 99,700 tons, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 10.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. Its 2025 copper guidance production is 380,000 - 440,000 tons (excluding the resumption of production of the Panama copper mine). The Kansanshi copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,500 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%. The Kansanshi smelter plans to carry out a six-week maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025. The SENTINEL copper mine in Zambia had a copper production of 46,400 tons in the first quarter, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 18%. The mine plans to carry out a four-day comprehensive maintenance shutdown in the second quarter of 2025 [13]. - Teck Resources' copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 106,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.1%. The Highland Valley project in Canada had a copper production of 29,500 tons in the first quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.4%. The QBII project in Chile had a copper production of 42,000 tons in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 27.1%. The production in this quarter was affected by an 18-day shutdown in January and a power outage in late February [14]. - According to Mysteel research data, last week, the processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 500 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous week. After the holiday, the downstream replenishment willingness slowed down after the high-level fluctuation of copper prices, and the terminal orders were mainly for rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the operation of China's refined copper rod enterprises will continue to recover in mid-May [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis trend, etc. These charts are sourced from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][20].