1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 79,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there have been frequent disruptions on the copper supply side, with continuously low TC prices. The scrap copper industry is in a policy pain - period with unstable supply. Although current demand is not outstanding, it is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. The "Golden September and Silver October" expectation may affect market sentiment. With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting and a high probability of a September rate cut, the current copper price may maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern. One can conduct buy - hedging on dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On September 16, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 80,890 yuan/ton and closed at 80,880 yuan/ton, down 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main SHFE copper contract opened at 81,010 yuan/ton and closed at 80,900 yuan/ton, up 0.02% from the afternoon close of the previous day [1]. 3.1.2 Spot Situation - According to SMM, on the previous day, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a premium of 10 - 140 yuan/ton to the current 2510 contract, with an average of 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The electrolytic copper price ranged from 80,880 to 81,360 yuan/ton. The SHFE 2510 contract dropped from 81,380 yuan/ton in the morning to around 80,700 yuan/ton before noon. The cross - month spread was close to par, and the import loss was about 500 yuan/ton. After the copper price fell below 81,000 yuan/ton, the downstream's willingness to fix prices increased slightly. In the Shanghai area, the procurement and sales sentiment indexes were 3.09 and 3.11 respectively. Some brands in the spot market were in short supply, with the mainstream transaction premium at 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the wet - process copper at a discount of about 40 yuan/ton. It is expected that the short - term copper price will remain in a high - level shock, and the spot premium may continue the stalemate [2]. 3.1.3 Important Information Summary - Overseas macro: The US Senate approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor by a narrow margin of 48 to 47 votes, and President Trump signed the appointment document. Milan can participate in this month's Fed interest - rate meeting and has the right to vote, which may lead to market doubts about the Fed's independence. The US Court of Appeals ruled that Fed governor Cook could continue to serve, rejecting the Trump administration's emergency application to dismiss her. The White House spokesman said the Trump administration would appeal the court's ruling [3]. - Tariffs: The US Department of Commerce announced that the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has established a process to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the tariff scope authorized by President Trump under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. It will also consider the industry's request to impose tariffs on more imported auto parts in the next few weeks [3]. - Mine end: On September 16, according to the memorandum of understanding signed and announced in February 2025, Anglo American has reached an agreement through its Chilean subsidiary Anglo American Sur (AAS) and Codelco to formulate a joint mining plan for their adjacent Los Bronces and Andina copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, the joint mining plan will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, expected to start in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation and minimal incremental capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase (NPV) of at least $5 billion, with the benefits shared equally by both parties [4]. - Smelting and import: Chile, a major copper - producing country, expects that despite setbacks at two major copper mines, this year's copper production will still increase, providing some relief to the tight global market. Although there were problems at Codelco's No. 1 mine and a tailings issue at a Teck Resources company, BHP Group's large Escondida mine had a 11% year - on - year production increase in the first half of this year, the Collahuasi mine will get out of the low - grade ore situation, and the El Salvador mine after major maintenance has started to increase production. The mining minister, Aurora Williams, said that copper production is still expected to increase in the next two years and reach a record 6 million tons by 2027 [5]. - Consumption: According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on September 11, from January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales totaled 21.051 million and 21.128 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 12.6%. Compared with the first seven months, the production growth rate remained flat, and the sales growth rate increased by 0.6 percentage points. From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles totaled 9.625 million and 9.62 million units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 37.3% and 36.7%. The new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of the total new - vehicle sales [5]. 3.1.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,325 tons to 150,950 tons from the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 3,049 tons to 33,692 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 154,200 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.2 Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish. One can conduct buy - hedging on dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold. - Options: short put @ 79,000 yuan/ton [7][8]. 3.3 Copper Price and Basis Data | | | 2025 - 09 - 17 | 2025 - 09 - 16 | 2025 - 09 - 10 | 2025 - 08 - 18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Spot (Premium/Discount)** | SMM: 1 copper | 75 | 80 | 90 | 180 | | | Premium copper | 125 | 110 | 125 | 210 | | | Flat - water copper | 50 | 50 | 40 | 150 | | | Wet - process copper | - 35 | - 70 | - 40 | 15 | | | Yangshan premium | 56 | 58 | 61 | 55 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 62 | - 73 | - 81 | - 94 | | **Inventory** | LME | 150,950 | 152,625 | 155,275 | 155,600 | | | SHFE | 94,054 | | 81,851 | | | | COMEX | 282,903 | 281,669 | 277,398 | 244,093 | | **Warehouse Receipts** | SHFE warehouse receipts | 33,692 | 30,643 | 19,081 | 24,560 | | | LME cancelled warehouse receipt ratio | 11.25% | 13.46% | 14.25% | 7.41% | | | CU12 - CU10 (Continuous - third - near - month) | 0 | - 100 | - 60 | | | | CU11 - CU10 (Main - near - month) | 0 | - 60 | - 30 | - 110 | | **Arbitrage** | CU11/AL11 | 3.86 | 3.85 | 3.84 | 3.81 | | | CU11/ZN11 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 3.60 | 3.51 | | | Import profit | - 229 | - 139 | 5 | 145 | [30][31][32]

Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 17, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The current copper price is at a high level in the past year, and the market is cautious due to the upcoming Fed interest rate meeting. After the expected 25BP interest rate cut is implemented, copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Although the downstream's ability to absorb the current copper price is average, there is still restocking demand before the double festivals, which provides support for the demand side [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai copper price rose first and then fell. The main contract reached a maximum of 81,530. The spot copper price increased by 180 to 81,120, and the spot premium decreased by 5 to 75. The loss of spot imports widened to 230. The LME0 - 3 contango remained around 62, and the premiums of Yangshan copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading both decreased slightly [10]. 3.2行业要闻 - Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine adjacent copper mines in Chile. Once the relevant licenses are in place, it will increase copper production by 2.7 million tons in 21 years, starting in 2030. The expected annual additional copper production is 120,000 tons, with a 15% reduction in unit cost compared to independent operation, and a minimum increase in capital expenditure. The transaction is expected to generate a pre - tax net present value increase of at least $5 billion, shared equally by both parties [11]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney told Anglo American that if it wants to merge with Teck Resources, it needs to move its headquarters to Canada [11]. - Chile's state - owned mining agency ENAMI's $1.7 billion smelter modernization project has attracted 15 institutions to express investment intentions. The Hernan Videla - Lira smelter in the Atacama region is being renovated, which will enable it to process 850,000 tons of copper concentrate and produce 240,000 tons of cathode copper annually. The deadline for initial bids is the end of October [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold [6] - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, there have been frequent supply - side disturbances in the copper market, with low TC prices and an unstable supply situation in the scrap copper industry. Although the demand is not outstanding, it is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. The "Golden September and Silver October" expectation may affect market sentiment. With the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting and a high probability of a September rate cut, copper prices may maintain a volatile and bullish pattern. It is advisable to conduct buy - hedging at dips between 79,000 yuan/ton and 79,500 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 15, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 80,750 yuan/ton and closed at 80,940 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 80,890 yuan/ton and closed at 81,380 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper narrowed slightly. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,780 - 81,100 yuan/ton, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan) over the main contract. The last trading day saw light trading. It is expected that the spot premium may show a pattern of high quotes and low transactions [2]. Important Information Summary - Economic data: The US September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply by 21 points to - 8.7, far below the market expectation of 5. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates immediately [3]. - Tariffs: China and the US reached a basic framework consensus on issues such as resolving TikTok - related problems and promoting economic and trade cooperation [3]. - Mine end: Due to a mudslide at the Grasberge copper mine in Indonesia, only the Block Cave has stopped operation, and the overall mining operation in the Grasberg area is currently at 30% of normal capacity [3]. Smelting and Import - LME copper inventories are fluctuating, with the latest at 153,950 tons, a one - month low. SHFE copper inventories increased by 14.91% to 94,054 tons, a two - and - a - half - month high. COMEX copper inventories reached a new high since mid - August 2003. As of September 9, the net long position of funds in COMEX copper futures rebounded to 27,241 lots [4]. Consumption - Last week, the operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry dropped to 67.53%, and the copper cable enterprise operating rate rose slightly to 67.62%. This week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises may rise to 70.79%, while that of cable enterprises is expected to drop slightly to 67.5% [5]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 152,625 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 5,083 tons to 30,643 tons. On September 15, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 15.42 million tons, a change of 0.99 million tons from the previous week [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Group 2: Report Core Views - Various commodities in the futures market are expected to have different trends, including upward movement, downward movement, and oscillatory trends [2][4]. - Macroeconomic and industry news, such as economic data releases, policy announcements, and corporate events, will impact commodity prices [8][14][18]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Prices may be affected by the downward revision of non - farm employment data, with a trend strength of 0 [2][8]. - Silver: Expected to break through and move upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][8]. Base Metals - Copper: Multiple factors drive price increases, with a trend strength of 1 [2][14]. - Zinc: Maintains an oscillatory trend, with a trend strength of 0 [2][17]. - Lead: Decreasing inventory supports prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][20]. - Tin: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24]. - Aluminum: Ranges within an oscillatory pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Alumina: Rebounds upward, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][27]. - Nickel: The smelting end shows no significant contradictions; focus on news - related risks at the ore end, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price may oscillate due to the game between long - and short - term logics, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term demand may exceed expectations, with an oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][37]. - Industrial Silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a trend strength of 1 [2][40]. - Polysilicon: Market sentiment has reignited, and the market may continue to rise, with a trend strength of 2 [2][41]. - Iron Ore: Expectations are fluctuating, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][44]. - Rebar: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][48]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The "anti - involution" sentiment has re - emerged, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][49]. - Ferrosilicon: Boosted by macro - sentiment, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - Silicomanganese: Boosted by macro - sentiment, with a relatively strong oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 1 [2][52]. - Coke: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][55]. - Coking Coal: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range oscillatory trend and a trend strength of 0 [2][56]. - Logs: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58]. - Rubber: Oscillate in a wide range, with no specific trend strength mentioned [2][62]. - Synthetic Rubber: In the short - term, macro - sentiment is positive, with an oscillatory trend [2]. - Asphalt: Production has increased, and inventory reduction has slowed down [2]. - LLDPE: Strong in the short - term, with an oscillatory trend in the medium - term [2]. - PP: Caution is needed when short - selling at low levels in the later stage, with an oscillatory market in the medium - term [2]. - Caustic Soda: Oscillates in a wide range [2]. - Pulp: Oscillates [2]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2]. - Methanol: Macro - sentiment is positive, with a short - term rebound [2]. - Urea: Macro - sentiment is strong, with a short - term rebound [2]. - Styrene: Strong in the short - term, bearish in the medium - term [2]. - Soda Ash: The spot market shows little change [2]. - LPG: Oscillates narrowly and strongly in the short - term [2]. - Propylene: Runs weakly at a high level in the short - term [2]. - PVC: Strong in the short - term [2]. Fuel and Shipping - Fuel Oil: Oscillates strongly with a short - term adjustment trend [4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The rebound trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly increased [4]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The October contract runs under pressure, while the December and February contracts oscillate widely [4]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Supported by US soybean oil, it is advisable to go long at low levels [4]. - Soybean Oil: US soybean prices have risen; pay attention to the results of China - US negotiations [4]. - Soybean Meal: Affected by the sentiment of economic and trade talks, it may rebound from an oversold position [4]. - Soybean: Rebounds and oscillates [4]. - Corn: Oscillates [4]. - Sugar: Pay attention to macro - policies [4]. - Cotton: The market focuses on the listing of new cotton [4]. - Eggs: The peak season for spot sales is approaching, and inventory remains high [4]. - Live Pigs: The weakness of the spot market is difficult to change, and policies are relatively strong [6]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the listing of new peanuts [6].

（文华综合） 印尼矿业部一位官员表示，由于自由港麦克莫兰运营的Grasberge铜矿发生泥石流事故，只有Block Cave 已经停止运营，其他较小的矿区仍在运营。截至上周五国内铜精矿现货加工费仍然低位徘徊，变动有 限，买卖双方分歧较大。 沪铜站稳80000关口后延续强势，今日偏强震荡，期价徘徊在81000一线附近，收盘上涨0.35%。铜市原 料端仍然偏紧，下游需求改善有限，社会库存继续增加，不过在降息预期提振下，市场氛围偏暖，沪铜 偏强震荡。 金瑞期货表示，近期印尼矿山出现生产扰动，预计小幅影响产量。冶炼环节进入9月国内冶炼检修增 加，结合再生冶炼原料同样转紧，维持冶炼产量重心下移预期。进出口方面，近期到港开始有所增加， 或因前期窗口打开。消费端，进入9月后下游订单边际改善幅度不大，或有铜价重心偏高影响。再生企 业反馈影响未持续发酵，开工边际有所回升。短期供需走弱，预计延续紧平衡状态。 9月15日国内市场电解铜现货库存15.79万吨，较11日增0.89万吨。上海市场近期进口虽仍有所到货但对 比前期表现减少，且国产货源到货依旧有限，但铜价高位运行，下游采购需求提升空间有限，库存小幅 下降；然江苏市场临近交割， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading outlooks for various commodities, such as "Breakout upward" for aluminum, "Weak operation" for alumina, and "Range - bound oscillation" for zinc [13]. 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Data**: China's August social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, with a 590 - billion - yuan increase in RMB loans. The M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low, indicating improved capital activation. Corporate financing demand showed marginal improvement, while consumer spending willingness remained weak [7]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy. Supply pressure is emerging, and polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [8][9]. - **Lead**: Short - term supply of lead concentrate is tight, and demand has marginally improved, supporting prices. Existing long positions can be held, and new long positions should wait for better entry points [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to see a downward revision of non - farm employment, and silver is predicted to break out upward. Gold's trend strength is 0, and silver's is also 0 [13][17][21]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Driven by macro sentiment, copper prices are rising. Trend strength is 1 [13][23][25]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][26][27]. - **Lead**: Demand has marginally improved, leading to price increases. Trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - **Tin**: Tin is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][32][35]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to break out upward, alumina to operate weakly, and casting aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum. Trend strengths for all are 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to news risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][39][45]. Energy and Chemicals - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [13][8][9]. - **LPG**: It is expected to have a short - term narrow - range and strong - biased oscillation [13][16]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to operate weakly at a high level in the short term [13][16]. Other Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are under pressure. Trend strength is - 1 [13][46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For polysilicon, market information changes should be monitored. Trend strengths are - 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon [13][49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: It is in an oscillating and repeated pattern. Trend strength is 0 [13][53][54]. - **Steel Products**: For rebar and hot - rolled coil, demand needs verification, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][57][59]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][60][62]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][63][65]. - **Logs**: They are in an oscillating and repeated pattern [13][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The main reasons were that the overall CPI in the US in August was moderately controllable with limited month - on - month increase, and the employment market remained weak. The market actively bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. Trump's arrangement of his White House economic advisor as a director might further interfere with the Fed's policy independence, and the weakening of the US dollar index boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, major mines maintained supply disruptions, there were expectations of refined copper production cuts in China, emerging industries had rapid consumption growth, and there was a risk of further decline in social inventories. The B - structure of the near - month contract slightly narrowed [2]. - Weak employment data increased the Fed's pressure to cut interest rates this month, and the low - inflation environment provided a favorable basis for a full - scale shift to a loose policy path. Trump's appointment of new directors might speed up his intervention in the future federal funds rate. In addition, the month - on - month decline of CPI in August but the narrowing of PPI decline, and the stable export growth. Driven by the expectation of growth - stabilizing policies, the sentiment in the domestic capital market was high. Fundamentally, the interference rate at overseas mine ends continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline. With the arrival of the consumption peak season in September and October, the tight - balance structure in China would intensify, and it was expected that copper prices would enter a stage of fluctuating upward in the short term [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Price changes: From September 5th to September 12th, LME copper rose from $9,865.00/ton to $10,064.50/ton, a 2.02% increase; COMEX copper rose from $454.35 cents/pound to $464.8 cents/pound, a 2.30% increase; SHFE copper rose from 80,140 yuan/ton to 81,060 yuan/ton, a 1.15% increase; international copper rose from 71,130 yuan/ton to 72,030 yuan/ton, a 1.27% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.12 to 8.05. The LME spot premium dropped from -$68.04/ton to -$73.42/ton, a 7.91% decline, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 165 yuan/ton to 85 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory changes: As of September 12th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area increased to 635,473 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,000 tons (-2.53%), COMEX inventory increased by 5,142 short tons (1.68%), SHFE inventory increased by 12,203 tons (14.91%), and Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 3,200 tons (-3.99%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper price trend: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The reasons were related to the US economic data and policy expectations, as well as the fundamentals of supply and demand. The total global inventory continued to rise, and the US dollar index's limited rebound led to the Shanghai - London ratio remaining at a relatively low level [8]. - Macroeconomic situation: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week reached 263,000, a month - on - month increase of 27,000, far exceeding the expected median of 235,000. The actual number of new non - farm jobs in the past 12 months ending in March was 911,000 less than previously reported. The 8 - month CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than the expected 0.3% increase. The market continued to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. The ECB maintained key interest rates unchanged, and the euro - zone inflation was under control. In China, the CPI in August was -0.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy was +0.9% year - on - year. The PPI decline narrowed [9]. - Supply and demand situation: Globally, the mine - end supply remained tight and was transmitted to the smelting end. In China, refined copper production in September might continue to decline. The supply of scrap copper tightened, and the profitability of small and medium - sized smelters was limited. On the demand side, power grid investment projects would speed up, the copper cable industry's operating rate was expected to return to about 80%. The demand for new energy vehicles would enter the peak season, and social inventories might decline further. The tight - balance structure would intensify [10]. 3. Industry News - Import data: In August, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 275.93 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%, and the cumulative imports from January to August reached 2,007.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Imports of unwrought copper and copper products in August were 42.5 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 353.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. In July, the copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year, while the production of Collahuasi decreased by 27.2% year - on - year [12]. - Panama copper mine: The Panamanian government plans to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals about the possible restart of the Panama copper mine at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit will be carried out first, which is expected to take 3 - 4 months. Before the shutdown, the mine's annual copper production was 35 tons, and its contribution to Panama's GDP was about 5%. The shutdown has caused an estimated economic loss of $1.7 billion [13]. - Freeport - McMoRan: An accident at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to 7 workers being trapped underground, and the mine's operation was suspended. The company's stock price fell by 5.81% on Tuesday. The Grasberg mining area has an annual copper production capacity of about 771,100 tons and a gold production capacity of 1.4 million ounces [14][15]. 4. Related Charts - Multiple charts showed the trends of copper prices (including SHFE copper, LME copper, COMEX copper), inventories (LME, COMEX, SHFE, Shanghai bonded area), spreads (LME spot premium, Shanghai spot premium, etc.), ratios (Shanghai - London ratio), and other indicators, as well as the net long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net position change of LME copper investment funds [17][21][40].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Fed's September rate - cut expectation has risen, and the traditional consumption peak season has led to an initial improvement in new orders for enameled copper wire, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate strongly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures Active Contract**: On September 11, 2025, the closing price was 80,130, up 340 from the previous day; the trading volume was 64,849 lots, down 9,691 lots; the open interest was 174,453 lots, up 2,541 lots; the inventory was 20,028 tons, up 902 tons; the Shanghai copper basis was 45, up 90 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,051.5, up 38.5; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 61.54, down 4.93; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 171.32, down 10.28; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9719, up slightly [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 11, 2025, the copper futures active contract closing price was 4.671, up 0.1; the total inventory was 309,834, up 2,138 [2] 2. Important Information - As of September 11, the weekly inventory of copper in mainstream regions in China decreased by 0.26 million tons to 14.43 million tons. Due to delivery demand, the in - transit inventory reached a record high. SMM expects that with continuous arrival of imported goods and weak demand, copper inventory will increase slightly [2] - In 2025, the investment of the State Grid continued to be booming, with a planned total investment of about 825 billion yuan. Stable orders from the State Grid will provide continuous demand support, and the acceleration of project progress in the second half of the year will ensure the stable operation of the wire and cable industry, offsetting the weak demand from downstream industries such as construction [2] 3. Supply - Demand Logic - **Supply**: Freeport's Indonesian mine had an accident and suspended mining, and there were disruptions in copper mine production at home and abroad. The China copper concentrate import index was negative but higher than last week, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates, and a decline in domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increased month - on - month [2] - **Demand**: New orders for copper enameled wire showed an initial month - on - month improvement, but high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing willingness [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased slightly compared with last week, but delivery demand increased the in - transit inventory; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared with last week, and the inventory of COMEX copper increased [2] 4. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long orders after the price drops. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 78,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level around 9,800 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper, the support level around 4.0 - 4.3 and the resistance level around 4.7 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The absolute price of copper is rated as cautiously bullish, and the recommended strategies are long-short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets and calendar spread arbitrage [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, there are certain disturbances in electrolytic copper production, and the pattern of persistently low TC prices is difficult to change. Meanwhile, demand is not as pessimistic as expected in the middle of the year. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly adopt the strategy of buying on dips for hedging. Considering the "Golden September and Silver October" period and relatively low domestic warehouse receipts, the near - month contracts may rise again, so it is not advisable to establish short positions in domestic near - month contracts for arbitrage trading [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On September 11, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 79,950 yuan/ton and closed at 80,130 yuan/ton, a 0.43% increase from the previous trading day's close. During the night session, it opened at 80,160 yuan/ton and closed at 80,490 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from the afternoon close of the same day [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of electrolytic copper stabilized and rebounded. The average price of SMM1 copper was 80,110 - 80,240 yuan/ton, with a premium of 85 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan) over the main contract. The import loss widened to 500 yuan/ton. Due to reduced circulating supply and a 0.12 - thousand - ton inventory decline in Shanghai, the sales pressure eased, and the spot trading sentiment improved. It is expected that the spot premium will remain firm [2]. Important Information Summary - **Economic Data**: The US CPI annual rate in August was 2.9%, the largest increase in 7 months. The monthly rate was 0.4%, the highest since January and higher than the expected 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate was 3.1%, in line with expectations. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending September 6 was 263,000, the highest since the week of October 23, 2021, higher than the market expectation of 235,000. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting was 93.9%, and the probability of a 50 - BP cut was 6.1% [3]. - **Mine End**: Panama is preparing to negotiate with First Quantum Minerals Ltd. about restarting the closed Cobre Panamá copper mine, with discussions expected to start at the end of this year or early 2026. A comprehensive environmental audit of the mine will start in the coming weeks, which will take three to four months to complete [3]. - **Smelting and Import**: Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year to 228,007 tons. In the first seven months of 2025, Peru's copper production was about 1.56 million tons, a 3.3% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Consumption**: In August 2025, the domestic output of electrolytic copper foil was 103,600 tons, a 1.97% month - on - month increase. It is expected that in September, the copper foil market will enter the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" period, with prices expected to stabilize and gradually recover. The seasonal stocking demand in the downstream power battery and consumer electronics sectors is expected to increase, which may drive up orders for lithium - ion copper foil and electronic circuit copper foil [4]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 225 tons to 154,175 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 902 tons to 20,028 tons. On September 11, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 144,300 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous week [4]. Strategy - **Absolute Price**: Cautiously bullish. It is recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging. - **Arbitrage**: Long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets and calendar spread arbitrage [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro - globally, tariff policies have a relatively mild impact on economic growth expectations. In the US, the weak employment market has led to a rapid increase in expectations of preventive interest rate cuts by the Fed, and Trump's interference in Fed policies has shaken market confidence in the US dollar. In China, the central bank will implement moderately loose policies, the fiscal side will support traditional and emerging industries, and consumption subsidy policies will boost domestic demand [3][77]. - Fundamentals - globally, frequent mine interruptions have tightened the ore supply and affected the smelting end, raising the cost and thus the copper price. In the consumption end, traditional industries are entering the peak season, and the copper demand of emerging industries (except photovoltaics) remains rigid. Domestic inventory is at a low level, and the global inventory rebound is limited [3][77]. - Overall - the weak US employment market and non - significant inflation, along with the Fed's dovish stance, open the door for a September interest rate cut. Trump's interference challenges the Fed's independence, and the weak US dollar supports the copper price. The tightening of the ore end is intensifying and spreading to the smelting end. The domestic copper supply - demand will return to a tight balance, and social inventory may decline further. It is expected that the copper price will enter an upward - trending oscillation in September and may approach the first - half high if the interest rate cut is realized [3][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 August Copper Market Review - Copper prices showed an upward - trending oscillation in August. LME copper rose from around $9,550 to over $9,900, and SHFE copper rose from around 78,000 yuan to around 80,000 yuan. The upward trend was driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, concerns about the Fed's independence, and global mine supply shortages. As of August 29, LME copper closed at $9,906/ton with a monthly decline of 3.1%, and SHFE copper closed at 79,410 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 1.75%. The market was characterized by a stronger overseas and weaker domestic performance [8]. - In terms of consumption, the terminal consumption of refined copper in China maintained off - season characteristics in August. The construction of power grid investment projects did not increase significantly, and orders in the real estate, engineering, and rail transit sectors slowed down. The air - conditioning production entered the off - season, and the demand for copper in the photovoltaic and communication fields was weak. However, the demand for copper connectors in the new - energy vehicle industry was good. The social inventory remained at a low level of 12 - 150,000 tons, and the spot premium increased after the contract change. The processing fee of copper rods was stable. It is expected that the consumption of traditional industries will recover in September, and the premium of domestic copper will rise [11][12]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Employment Market Shows Weakness, and Expectations of Preventive Interest Rate Cuts within the Year Rise - In August, the US non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of full - time jobs decreased by 357,000, and the ADP employment increased by only 54,000. The recruitment growth in the goods production and service sectors slowed down, and the salary increase of private - sector employees reached a four - year low. The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that consumer spending was flat or decreased, and corporate investment willingness declined. The weak employment market has increased the expectations of preventive interest rate cuts, with some in the market expecting a 50 - BP cut in September. However, some hawkish officials oppose the cut, arguing that inflation is still above the 2% target [14][15]. 3.2.2 US Manufacturing Contracts, while Eurozone Manufacturing Recovers Significantly - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in August dropped to 48.7, remaining in the contraction range for six consecutive months. Although the new orders index expanded for the first time this year, the employment index decreased, and the price - paid index declined, indicating a potential slowdown in inflation. The overall situation shows that US manufacturing enterprises face many challenges and are reluctant to expand investment [17]. - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI in August rose to 50.5, ending a three - year contraction. Germany's manufacturing PMI rose significantly, and France's also showed a recovery trend. The strong PMI data and controlled inflation provide a basis for the ECB's policy - making. The ECB may pause interest rate cuts in the short term, but there is a possibility of resuming cuts by the end of the year if service - sector inflation further declines and the impact of tariff policies on the economy intensifies [18]. 3.2.3 The Central Bank Implements Moderately Loose Policies, and the Decline in Industrial Enterprise Profits Narrowed in August - The central bank proposed to implement moderately loose monetary policies in the second - quarter monetary policy report. It aims to maintain liquidity, match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price targets, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. It will also improve the interest - rate regulation framework, lower the cost of bank liabilities, and support key areas such as innovation, consumption, and small enterprises [19]. - In July, the year - on - year decline in the profits of Chinese industrial enterprises above a designated size narrowed. The profits of high - tech manufacturing increased rapidly, driving the overall industrial profit growth. The fourth - quarter policy of "anti - involution + stable growth" is expected to boost the demand for industrial products and non - ferrous metals, providing upward momentum for the copper price [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Global Ore Supply is Continuously Disrupted, and the Panama Copper Mine Enters the Environmental Assessment Audit Stage - As of the end of August, the spot TC of copper concentrate remained at an extremely low level of around - $41/ton. The global supply interference rate of copper concentrate is increasing, and the supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to drop to 1.1% - 1.4%. Many major mines have experienced interruptions and suspensions, such as the Panama copper mine's environmental audit, the suspension of Teck Resources' expansion project in Peru, and the temporary shutdown of several mines in Chile and Indonesia. The output loss of Kamoa this year is expected to exceed 100,000 tons. The overall situation shows that the tight supply of copper concentrate continues [24][25]. 3.3.2 Domestic Output May Decline from the High Level, and the Release of Overseas Refined Copper Capacity is Restricted - In August, China's electrolytic copper output was 1.172 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. However, due to the "770 Document" that restricts the production of scrap - copper enterprises, domestic refined copper output in September is expected to decline by 4% - 5% month - on - month, a reduction of about 50,000 - 80,000 tons. - Overseas, Glencore's two smelters in the Philippines and Chile have been shut down, resulting in an expected output loss of 300,000 tons this year. The new overseas refined copper production capacity in 2025 is expected to be 620,000 tons, but the actual increase is estimated to be only about 150,000 tons [31][32]. 3.3.3 Refined Copper Imports Gradually Recover, and the Yangshan Copper Premium in US Dollars Declines - From January to July, China's cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while the imports of copper ore and concentrate increased by 8.1%. The decline in refined copper imports narrowed to 6.4%, and the import volume in July increased by 8.2% year - on - year. In August, the export window gradually closed, and some overseas goods flowed back to the LME Asian warehouse. The Yangshan copper premium dropped significantly, and the US copper premium almost disappeared. The inflow of US scrap copper into China has decreased significantly [54][55]. 3.3.4 Overseas Inventory Flows to North America, and Domestic Inventory Enters a Low - Level Range - Since August, domestic inventory has remained in a low - level range of 120,000 - 150,000 tons. By August 29, the global visible inventory (including Shanghai bonded area) rebounded to 599,000 tons. The total inventory of the three major exchanges (LME, COMEX, and SHFE) increased by 70,000 tons to 516,000 tons. The COMEX inventory stopped increasing, and the LME inventory gradually recovered. The domestic copper visible inventory increased to 162,000 tons. It is expected that the global visible inventory will increase slightly in September, and domestic inventory may decline further due to the peak - season demand [58][60]. 3.3.5 Traditional Industries Enter the Peak Season, and the Growth of Emerging Industries (Except Photovoltaics) Remains Stable - Power grid investment - the total investment in the power grid by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid in 2025 is expected to reach 80 billion yuan, an increase of 22 billion yuan compared to 2024. The construction of "5 direct - current and 2 alternating - current" UHV lines will start this year. The copper demand for power grid investment is expected to grow at a rate of 3% [65]. - Photovoltaic and wind power - from January to July, China's photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 80.7% year - on - year, but the growth rate slowed down significantly in July and August. The government is taking measures to regulate the photovoltaic industry, and the second - half installed capacity may decline sharply. The wind - power installed capacity increased by 79.4% from January to July, but the full - year forecast has been lowered. The copper demand for the wind - and - solar industries is expected to decline by 7% - 8% [66][69]. - Real estate - from January to July, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year. The decline in housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities narrowed. Policy support is expected to stabilize the real estate market, but the copper demand for real estate is expected to decline slightly by 2% - 3% [70][71]. - Air - conditioning - from January to July, China's air - conditioning production increased by 1.5% year - on - year. In September, the domestic and export production schedules of air - conditioners decreased compared to last year. The air - conditioning market faces challenges of weakening domestic and external demand [72][73]. - New - energy vehicles - from January to July, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 39.2% and 38.5% respectively. The export increased by 75.2%. With policy support, the copper demand for new - energy vehicles is expected to grow by more than 25% [74]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macro - factors and fundamentals are expected to drive the copper price upward. The weak US dollar and tight supply - demand fundamentals will support the copper price. In September, the copper price is expected to oscillate upwards and may approach the first - half high if the interest rate cut is realized [77].