Core Viewpoint - The approval of the futures and options for casting aluminum alloy by the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks the upcoming launch of the first recycled metal variety in China's futures market, providing a new risk management tool for related industries [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of casting aluminum alloys, with a production capacity of approximately 13 million tons and an output of about 6.2 million tons in 2024 [3]. - The apparent consumption of casting aluminum alloys is around 6.73 million tons, highlighting its extensive application in various sectors such as automotive, machinery, and electronics [3]. - The production of one ton of casting aluminum alloy results in carbon emissions that are about 3.6% of those from electrolytic aluminum, demonstrating significant energy savings and environmental benefits [3]. Group 2: Policy and Development Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and ten other departments have issued a plan to enhance the high-quality development of the aluminum industry, aiming for a recycled aluminum output of over 15 million tons by 2027 [4]. - The introduction of casting aluminum alloy futures and options is a significant step in promoting green finance and supporting the low-carbon transformation of the aluminum industry [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Industry representatives express strong demand for the futures and options, as the lack of a dedicated recycled aluminum futures product has limited effective risk management strategies [6][7]. - The introduction of these financial instruments is expected to create a transparent and efficient pricing mechanism, addressing issues such as high costs and long payment cycles faced by enterprises [6][8]. - The futures market will enhance the risk management capabilities of the aluminum industry, allowing for better profit allocation and improved operational efficiency [9].

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, Yingkou Dashiqiao Economic Development Zone focuses on high-quality development, planning to start or resume 25 projects with a total investment of 2.205 billion yuan [1] - Fixed asset investment is expected to reach 100 million yuan in Q1, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, while the technical contract transaction amount is projected to be 10.5 million yuan, up 31.2% year-on-year [1] - The number of provincial-level green factories in the zone has increased to 3, with 2 new clean production enterprises added [1] Group 2 - In 2025, the zone aims to strengthen and supplement industrial chains, targeting fine chemicals, aluminum industry, and non-ferrous metals, while deepening cooperation with regions like Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Chuzhou [2] - Projects such as a 600 million yuan wind power and photovoltaic project with Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and a deep processing project for 50,000 tons of fuel oil and 100,000 tons of asphalt in Kuwait are being promoted [2] - The zone continues to implement the "Management Committee + Company" model to enhance the business environment and ensure rapid response to enterprise demands through various initiatives [2]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-05-22 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-05-22 所长 早读 外资机构纷纷看多中国股市 观点分享： 据证券日报报道，5 月 21 日，第 28 届瑞银亚洲投资论坛媒体分享会召开，瑞银全球金 融市场部中国主管房东明表示，当前，国际市场对中国资产关注度持续升温。一方面，流动 性向好趋势明显，这对提升投资者信心至关重要，量化基金及其他中长线海外投资者均积极 寻求深度参与中国资本市场。同时，中国监管部门也积极回应全球投资者关切点，提供切实 指导与帮助。另一方面，新质生产力领域吸引力愈发凸显，在人工智能、高端制造等产业链 推动下，中国股市叙事逻辑转变，叠加政策推动，全球投资者对中国资产中长短期关注度都 在不断提升；高盛最新报告显示，将 MSCI 中国指数和沪深 300 指数的 12 个月目标分别上 调至 84 点和 4600 点（分别有 11%和 17%的潜在上涨空间），维持对中国股票的超配评级； 摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，中国拥有充足的应对冲击的回旋空间。原因有四 方面：一是国内政策刺激拥有加码空间；二是整体社会民生仍具有承 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data for April shows both highlights and weaknesses. The actual growth is still resilient, the supply - demand relationship is stable, and consumption recovery exceeds expectations. However, fixed - asset investment growth is low, the real estate market is weak, and the price center remains low [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak due to the continuous expectation of oversupply and the decline in costs. The price of most commodities has different trends, such as gold in shock adjustment, copper supported by inventory decline, etc. [10][13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Analysis - The six - caliber data in April (industry, service, export, social retail, investment, real estate sales) are lower than the previous values. There are three highlights: strong actual growth, stable supply - demand, and faster - than - expected consumption recovery. There are also three weaknesses: low fixed - asset investment, weak real estate, and low price center [8]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate - Supply shows no significant reduction, with the weekly output rising to 16,630 tons and the开工 rate reaching 48%. Demand is weak, and inventory has shifted from slight destocking to restocking, with the SMM weekly inventory at 132,000 tons. The price of lithium ore has dropped rapidly, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold is in shock adjustment, and silver is in shock decline. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][19][21]. 3.2.3 Copper - The decline in internal and external inventories supports the price. The trend intensity is 1. There are macro and micro news, such as Fed officials' attitude towards interest rates and new cooperation in the copper industry [23][25]. 3.2.4 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is in range - bound shock, and alumina should pay attention to the impact of the ore end. The trend intensities of both are 0 [13][26][28]. 3.2.5 Zinc - Zinc faces pressure at the upper level. The trend intensity is - 1. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are related economic news [29][30]. 3.2.6 Lead - Lead is in range - bound shock. The trend intensity is 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are related economic news [32][33]. 3.2.7 Tin - Tin is in narrow - range shock. The trend intensity is - 1. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are macro and industry news [35][36][38]. 3.2.8 Stainless Steel and Nickel - Stainless steel has a clear cost bottom but lacks upward drive. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0. There are news about Indonesia's policy adjustment on nickel products and the production progress of nickel - related projects [40][45]. 3.2.9 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon has upstream复产 and oversupply, and polysilicon has a weak fundamental and downward - driving disk. The trend intensities are - 2 and - 1 respectively. There is news about the US anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations on metal silicon [50][52]. 3.2.10 Iron Ore - The short - term bullish factors are realized, and the upward drive slows down. The trend intensity is - 1. The price of relevant contracts and spot prices have changed, and there is news about real estate investment [53][54]. 3.2.11 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Both are in weak shock due to the continuous decline of raw materials. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about steel production [56][58]. 3.2.12 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon may have a cost decline and wide - range shock, and silicomanganese is supported by the spot price and in wide - range shock. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about the iron alloy market [59][61]. 3.2.13 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal is in weak shock with the decline of molten iron. Coke is also in shock. The trend intensities of both are 0. The price and trading volume of relevant contracts have changed, and there are news about coal prices and warehouse receipts [63][66]. 3.2.14 Steam Coal - Steam coal has an increase in coal mine inventory and is in weak shock. The trend intensity is 0. There are quotes for domestic and foreign steam coal and information on positions [67][69]. 3.2.15 Logs - Logs are in weak shock [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a combination of "strong current situation + weak expectation". The short - term price is likely to fluctuate. The main contract price is expected to range between 77,500 - 79,500 yuan/ton. The macro - level factors and the uncertainty of demand in the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For electrolytic aluminum, the inventory reduction and the easing of tariff sentiment support the price, but the expected weakening of demand and the decline in cost put pressure on the price. The short - term price is likely to fluctuate [3]. Zinc - The short - term zinc price may be supported by the easing of tariff signals. In the future, the price may decline if terminal consumption is insufficient due to tariff policies, or maintain a high - level oscillation if the growth rate of the mining end is lower than expected and downstream consumption exceeds expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the main contract price reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Tin - The macro - sentiment improvement may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply - side restoration and the pessimistic demand expectation, short - selling can be attempted in the range of 265,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply - side raw material restoration rhythm [7]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to fluctuate. The macro - sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. The main contract price is expected to range between 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to fluctuate. The raw - material end provides some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction has intensified, and the inventory pressure has slightly eased. The main contract price is expected to range between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term lithium carbonate price is expected to show a weak oscillation. The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is relatively flat, and the inventory is still high. The main contract price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: Most copper prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 electrolytic copper at 78,155 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 11.54% [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spreads between some contracts changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the import volume in March increased by 15.24%. The domestic and overseas inventories showed different trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: Aluminum prices generally increased, with SMM A00 aluminum at 20,010 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The import loss and the spreads between some contracts changed [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production changed. The开工 rates of some aluminum products also changed, and the inventories at home and abroad decreased [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: Zinc prices decreased slightly, with SMM 0 zinc ingot at 22,650 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The import loss increased, and the spreads between some contracts decreased [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the import volume in March increased by 9.47%. The开工 rates of downstream industries increased [4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: Tin prices decreased slightly, with SMM 1 tin at 262,100 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The spreads between some contracts changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, the tin ore import decreased, while the refined tin production and import increased. The inventories of some varieties decreased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: Nickel prices decreased, with SMM 1 electrolytic nickel at 124,950 yuan/ton, down 1.79%. The import loss decreased, and the spreads between some contracts changed [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the Chinese refined nickel production increased by 6.08%, and the import volume decreased by 68.84%. The inventories at home and abroad changed [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: Stainless - steel prices were slightly adjusted, with the 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) at 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. The spreads between some contracts changed [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the 300 - series stainless - steel production in China increased by 11.37%, and the export volume increased by 70.98%. The inventories changed [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: Lithium carbonate prices were mostly stable, with SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate at 64,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spreads between some contracts changed [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, the lithium carbonate production decreased, while the demand increased. The inventory increased, and the开工 rate increased [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, but the supply is expected to recover in July. The demand improvement is limited, and the subsequent demand outlook is pessimistic. The Sino - US tariff negotiation consensus may drive the price to rebound, but considering supply recovery and weak demand, try shorting in the 265,000 - 270,000 range and focus on the supply recovery rhythm [1]. Copper - Macroeconomic factors such as tariffs and the "232" investigation affect copper prices. The supply of raw materials is tight, and domestic inventories are low. The demand in the peak season may not be sustainable. The copper market shows a "strong current + weak expectation" pattern, with prices expected to be volatile in the short - term, and focus on the demand after May and tariff negotiation progress [2]. Aluminum - For alumina, the operating capacity may fluctuate, demand is stable with limited growth, and the cost support is weakening. Prices are expected to be volatile. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply is stable, demand may decline, but the low inventory and tariff relaxation support the price. Overall, the price is expected to be weak, with a support range of 18,000 - 18,500 [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is loose. Refined zinc supply was affected by over - expected maintenance in April. Downstream demand is weak, and the purchasing index is weakening. Short - term prices may be supported by tariff relaxation. In the long - term, consider shorting, and focus on ore production and downstream demand changes [6]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures market fluctuates. The tariff negotiation result has a short - term impact on sentiment. The supply pressure is clear, demand is relatively flat, and inventory is high. Prices may stabilize in the short - term, but the upside is limited. The overall strategy is to short on rallies, with a reference range of 62,000 - 66,000 [9]. Nickel - The nickel market is affected by the rumored Philippine ore ban and tariff negotiation results. The cost support is strong, but the medium - term supply is loose, restricting the upside. The price is expected to be in a range - bound adjustment, with a reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is affected by tariff negotiation results. The ore price provides support, but the supply is excessive, and demand is slowly recovering. The inventory pressure eases slightly. The price is expected to be volatile, with a reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.23% to 262,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 72.79% to - 43.01 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - The import loss decreased by 74.84% to - 2,373.05 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.19 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increased by 37.50% [1]. Fundamental Data - In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, and refined tin imports increased by 12.41%. The export of refined tin decreased by 29.50%, and the export of Indonesian refined tin increased by 46.15% [1]. Inventory Change - SHEF inventory decreased by 2.13%, social inventory increased by 3.66%, SHEF warrants decreased by 0.85%, and LME inventory increased by 3.14% [1]. Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.09% to 78,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased. The import loss increased to - 570 yuan/ton [2]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts decreased, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 180 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32% to 112.57 million tons. In March, imports increased by 15.24% to 30.88 million tons. The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod decreased, and inventories in various regions decreased [2]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.02% to 19,810 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17% to 754.90 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% to 371.42 million tons. The operating rates of some aluminum products changed, and inventories decreased [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22% to 22,720 yuan/ton. The spreads of different contracts decreased [6]. Fundamental Data - In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31% to 50.98 million tons. In March, imports increased by 9.47% to 5.78 million tons, and exports decreased by 77.37% to 0.02 million tons. The operating rates of downstream industries increased, and inventories increased [6]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.00% to 64,600 yuan/ton. The basis decreased by 147.71% [9]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [9]. Fundamental Data - In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65% to 73,810 tons, and demand increased by 3.02% to 89,627 tons. In March, imports increased by 47.03% to 18,125 tons, and exports decreased by 47.25% to 220 tons [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.92% to 127,225 yuan/ton. The import loss increased by 3.73% [11]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [11]. Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In April, China's refined nickel production increased by 6.08% to 36,300 tons, and imports decreased by 68.84%. Inventories in various regions decreased [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils increased, and the basis decreased [14]. Monthly Spread - The spreads of different contracts showed various changes [14]. Fundamental Data - In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons, and Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Imports decreased, exports increased, and inventories changed slightly [14].

铝类产业日报 2025/5/13 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 最新 | | | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,005.00 | +95.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,840.00 | -3.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 45.00 | -30.00↓ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -5.00 | +4.00↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 160,449.00 | -7196.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 283,672.00 | +11058.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 151,350.00 | -2025.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 270,165.00 | -15113.00↓ | | | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is bearish with weak fundamentals and high inventory. The price is expected to remain weak, with the main contract ranging from 62,000 to 66,000 yuan/ton [1][3]. - **Tin**: The supply side is expected to recover, while the demand outlook is pessimistic. The price may rebound due to macro - sentiment but is likely to be bearish in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm [4]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment is temporarily stable, and the cost provides support, but the medium - term supply is abundant. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract ranging from 122,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expanding, and the inventory pressure is slightly relieved. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,600 to 13,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. - **Zinc**: The supply side may become looser, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported in the short - term, but in the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended. The main contract reference range is 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate, and the aluminum price is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: The copper market shows a "strong reality + weak expectation" pattern. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton pressure level [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 65,250 yuan/ton, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.23%. The basis (SMM electric carbon benchmark) increased by 10,800% [1]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin decreased by 0.99% to 259,600 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.06% to 124,825 yuan/ton [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged at 13,050 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.35% to 22,770 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.05% to 19,610 yuan/ton [12]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.29% to 78,205 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamentals - **Lithium Carbonate**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, while demand increased by 3.02%. Inventory increased by 6.81% [1]. - **Tin**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [4]. - **Nickel**: In April, China's refined nickel products increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [5]. - **Stainless Steel**: In April, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.65%, and exports increased by 70.98% [6]. - **Zinc**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and the social inventory increased by 8.18% [9]. - **Aluminum**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [12]. - **Copper**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7.33% [13].

| 锌产业期现日报 | | --- | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月9日 星期五 FE Z0015979 | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 0#锌锭 | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水 | 500 | 85 | +415.00 | / | 元/吨 | | SMM 0#锌锭 (广东) | 22850 | 22770 | +80.00 | 0.35% | 元/吨 | | 升贴水(广东) | 500 | ਦਾ ਦ | -15.00 | / | 元/吨 | | 比价和盈亏 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | 629 | 713 | -84.78 | | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 8.68 | 8.67 | +0.01 | | / | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has improved, driving up tin prices. However, considering the gradual recovery of the supply side and pessimistic demand expectations, a bearish view on the rebound of tin prices is maintained. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of raw materials on the supply side [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the futures price is under pressure in the short - term due to the expected decline in ore prices, while the spot price provides some support. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. For electrolytic aluminum, inventory depletion, easing tariff attitudes, and domestic stimulus policy expectations support aluminum prices. But as domestic demand transitions to the off - season, aluminum prices may face downward pressure in the future. The short - term focus is on post - holiday consumption and the pressure around 20,000 yuan/ton [2]. Zinc - In the pessimistic scenario, if tariff policies lead to insufficient terminal consumption, the zinc price center may shift downward. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and downstream consumption performs better than expected, the zinc price may maintain a high - level shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, a short - selling approach is recommended, with the main reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [4]. Copper - Macroscopically, the issue of reciprocal tariffs is the core variable for asset pricing. The pressure of tariffs has slightly eased, and attention should be paid to the introduction of domestic monetary and fiscal policies. Fundamentally, the supply of raw materials is still tight, and the demand is resilient. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, with the main focus on the pressure level of 77,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton [6]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the situation is stable. With the implementation of Indonesian policies and relatively firm raw material nickel ore, there is still cost support for nickel prices. However, the medium - term supply is abundant, restricting the upward space. In the short - term, the macro situation is still uncertain, and the fundamentals change little. The disk is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, with the main reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [8]. Stainless Steel - The ore end provides some support for prices, while the nickel - iron price is weak. In the short - term, the supply is relatively abundant, domestic demand has some resilience but recovers slowly, and export demand is blocked. The inventory pressure has slightly eased. Considering the cost - demand game and the uncertain macro - environment, the disk is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals lack positive factors. The supply pressure is obvious, and the demand is generally stable but fails to meet expectations. The inventory is still high. In the short - term, the disk is expected to remain weakly operating, with the main reference range of 65,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the performance of funds around 65,000 yuan/ton [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 0.38%, SMM 1 tin premium increased by 12.50%. Import profit and loss increased by 32.10%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 90.00% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In March, tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75%, refined tin imports increased by 12.41%, and exports decreased by 29.50%. Indonesian refined tin exports increased by 46.15%. The SMM refined tin average operating rate in March increased by 8.75% [1]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 3.68%, social inventory decreased by 5.57%, SHEF daily inventory decreased by 0.98%, and LME inventory increased by 1.69% [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 1.05%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 75 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, alumina production decreased by 6.17%, electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91%. In March, electrolytic aluminum imports increased by 2.2 million tons, and exports increased by 0.5 million tons. The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.84%, and the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.94% [2]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 1.09%, and the LME inventory remained unchanged [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22%, and the import profit and loss changed. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 185 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, in March, imports increased by 9.47%, and exports decreased by 77.37%. The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 12.83%, the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 9.97%, and the zinc oxide operating rate decreased by 1.20% [4]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 2.10%, and the LME inventory decreased by 0.50% [4]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.31%, the refined - scrap price difference increased by 25.70%, and the import profit and loss increased. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 80 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, in March, imports increased by 15.24%. The electrolytic copper rod operating rate increased, and various inventories decreased, such as the SHFE inventory decreasing by 23.51% [6]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.32%, and the futures import profit and loss increased by 19.50%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread decreasing by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP production of electrowon nickel increased by 1.85%, and the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte production of electrowon nickel increased by 2.47% [8]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel products decreased by 2.62%, imports increased by 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 3.08%, social inventory decreased by 1.25%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.92% [8]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils remained stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.82%. Some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2506 - 2507 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [10]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.98%, and the price of 304 waste stainless steel increased by 1.05% [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production increased by 11.37%, Indonesian production decreased by 6.67%. Stainless steel imports decreased by 19.45%, exports increased by 70.98%, and net exports increased by 196.56%. The 300 - series social inventory increased by 0.94% [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.25%, and some month - to - month spreads changed, such as the 2505 - 2506 spread increasing by 20 yuan/ton [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In April, lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, battery - grade lithium carbonate production decreased by 9.55%, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production increased by 0.27%. In March, lithium carbonate demand increased by 15.07%, imports increased by 47.03%, and exports decreased by 47.25% [13]. - **Inventory**: In March, the total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 16.79%, downstream inventory increased by 27.94%, and smelter inventory increased by 9.40% [13].