年度报告——商品期权 潮有暗涌，择舟而渡 报告日期： 2025 年 12 月 26 日 ★ 商品期权：市场逐步扩容，谱系趋于完善 2025 年，我国商品期权市场在前期高速发展后，步入精耕细作 的稳步扩容新阶段，全年共上市 8 个新品种，使得商品期权总 数从年初的 53 个增至 61 个，覆盖广度与产业深度均得到进一 步提升。同时期权市场成交活跃，重拾增长动能，全年成交量 创下历史新高，与金融期权市场容量差距进一步缩窄。 ★ 波动率：宏观及市场情绪抬升商品波动水平 商品期权标的期货市场呈现出典型的跌多涨少、宽幅震荡、板 块分化格局。商品市场的共振走势主要源于三大核心驱动，包 括美国关税政策反复、国内"反内卷"政策以及年末贵金属板块行 情，整体商品市场波动显著提升。 波动率交易建议关注历史波动率交易与隐含波动率交易的区 别，二者收益分别来源于 Gamma 与 Vega 维度。此外，期权隐 含波动率并非单一线性的结构，而是一个在行权价 和到期期 限 两个维度上动态变动的复杂曲面，这为投资者提供了波动率 期限套利与偏度套利的机会。 ★ 期权策略推荐 回顾 2025 年，宏观贸易政策剧烈调整、全球风险偏好的变化以 及国 ...

深化产融结合，助力产业发展 ——徽商期货成功举办江南集中区新材料企业交流座谈会 12月23日，由徽商期货公司主办的"江南新兴产业集中区新材料重点企业交流座谈会"在池州市江南新兴 产业集中区管委会成功举行。徽商期货董事长、总经理储进率公司专业团队一行，与区内十余家铝基新 材料领域重点企业负责人就当前市场行情、风险管理及期现结合等议题进行了深入交流，活动包含专题 座谈与企业调研两部分，成效显著。 活动伊始，储进在致辞中表示本次会议旨在深化产融结合，为实体企业提供直面市场波动的金融工具 箱，服务实体经济 。 深化产融结合，助力产业发展 ——徽商期货成功举办江南集中区新材料企业交流座谈会 12月23日，由徽商期货公司主办的"江南新兴产业集中区新材料重点企业交流座谈会"在池州市江南新兴 产业集中区管委会成功举行。徽商期货董事长、总经理储进率公司专业团队一行，与区内十余家铝基新 材料领域重点企业负责人就当前市场行情、风险管理及期现结合等议题进行了深入交流，活动包含专题 座谈与企业调研两部分，成效显著。 活动伊始，储进在致辞中表示本次会议旨在深化产融结合，为实体企业提供直面市场波动的金融工具 箱，服务实体经济 。 专题报告 ...

2025年以来，徽商期货研究所共举办乡村振兴培训活动8场，涵盖了黑龙江省鹤岗市绥滨县、佳木斯市 桦南县，以及安徽省阜阳市颍上县、安庆望江县、六安霍邱县等地，活动提供了20余个不同类型的分享 内容，培训94人次。徽商期货的乡村振兴培训活动开展的几年来，覆盖了全国多个省区，根据不同地区 的农业经济结构、农户实际需求等，设计具有针对性个性化的课程内容，农户们普遍反馈积极，对培训 活动给予好评。 黑龙江：掌握避险知识 灵活运用期货 黑龙江省是全国玉米大豆产量第一的大省，2025年公司农产品研究员先后在黑龙江佳木斯鹤岗市绥滨县 和佳木斯市桦南县进行培训活动，并根据当地特色设计了期货基础知识、套期保值及案例分析、期权及 场外衍生品介绍、大豆玉米的基本面分析框架等培训内容。通过培训，当地农企及种植技术人员对金融 基础知识可谓略窥门径，了解到运用期货价格走向来指导卖粮时机，必要时可以通过交割、点价等方式 方法解决卖粮难的问题，而企业亦可以运用期货工具进行套期保值操作。 安徽：运用实地案例 详解对冲机制 2025年徽商期货研究所在安徽省共举办了6场乡村振兴培训，研究员积极走入乡村，与农民开展现场交 流。其中，在六安市霍邱县开展 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that silver prices in the domestic market have significantly increased during the Christmas holiday, with the Shanghai silver premium expanding to 1500 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a strong domestic sentiment [4] - The closing price for Shanghai silver futures on December 26 was 18319 yuan per kilogram, showing a daily increase of 6.60% with a trading volume of 985,185 lots and an open interest of 279,608 lots [1] - The spot price of silver in Shanghai on December 26 was quoted at 18320 yuan per kilogram, which is 1 yuan per kilogram higher than the futures price [3] Group 2 - The overseas market has not followed the domestic trend during the Christmas holiday, and there is potential for further price increases supported by capital [4] - Caution is advised in operations due to the high premium risk associated with silver funds, with suggested trading range for Shanghai silver futures set between 17150 and 19000 yuan per kilogram [4]

股指期权数据日报 投资咨询号:Z0000116 国贸期货研究院 2025/12/26 金融衍生品中心 李泽钜 从业资格号:F0251925 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 行情回顾 指数 收盘价 涨跌幅(%) 成交额(亿元) 成交量(亿) 820. 76 上证50 28. 27 3032. 8414 0. 25 3853. 56 沪深300 4642. 5357 0. 18 139. 43 7579. 3791 0. 97 228. 74 中证1000 4344. 19 中金所股指期权成交情况 期权成交量 认购期权 认洁期权 日成交量 期权持企量 认购期权 认洁期权 持仓量 指数 持仓量 (万张) (万张) 持仓量 成交量 成交量 PCR PCR 上证50 1. 17 0. 70 0. 60 2. 95 0. 66 1. 88 1. 95 4. 90 5. 58 沪深300 8. 39 2. 81 0. 50 16. 26 6. 64 0. 69 9. 62 中证1000 23. 96 14. 33 0. 67 26. 04 9. 63 13. 09 12. 95 0. 99 中证1000PCR走势 沪 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, BR Rubber, PTA [1] - **Bearish**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Sugar [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Gold, Platinum, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferroalloy, Glass, Coke, Coking Coal, Lumber, Cotton, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Benzene, Naphtha, Propylene, Butadiene, Container Shipping to Europe [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment and liquidity are in a good state, with the short - term stock index breaking through the previous oscillation range and expected to remain strong. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks. The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as industry fundamentals, macro - sentiment, and policy changes [1]. Summaries by Categories Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index has broken through the previous oscillation range and is expected to remain strong as the market sentiment and liquidity are good [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of short - term interest - rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The industrial situation is weak recently, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, leading to high - level oscillations in copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: The driving force in the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the macro - sentiment is fluctuating, resulting in oscillating aluminum prices [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price remains low [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, with the cost center rising. Most of the recent negative factors have been realized, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly as market risk appetite improves [1]. - **Nickel**: The global nickel inventory is high, but due to supply concerns, the Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently. The Indonesian policy has not been implemented but is difficult to disprove in the short term. The short - term nickel price may oscillate strongly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel - iron price has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The non - ferrous tin industry association has issued an initiative, causing the short - term tin price to oscillate weakly. Considering the tense situation in Congo and the improved market risk appetite, low - buying opportunities are recommended [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Overseas markets are in the Christmas holiday, and the strong US economic data has weakened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. After reaching a new historical high, the gold price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - **Platinum**: The domestic platinum futures price has a large premium over the spot price and foreign markets, with large expected fluctuations. Rational participation is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production in the northwest has increased while that in the southwest has decreased. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon have decreased in December [1]. - **Polysilicon**: A capacity storage platform company has been established, with a long - term expectation of capacity reduction. The terminal installation has increased marginally in the fourth quarter, large manufacturers are eager to maintain prices but reluctant to deliver goods, and the short - term speculative sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, the energy - storage demand is strong, the supply side has increased production resumption, and the price has exceeded the previous high. Short - term long - position operations are recommended [1]. Building Materials - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high. Short - selling is not recommended. The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the far - term contracts still have upward potential [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but with good commodity sentiment, the far - term contracts have upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass and Glass Products**: They follow the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand conditions and low valuation. The downward space is limited, and they may oscillate under pressure [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by the domestic major meeting and export policy, the black - sector has declined. After the announcement of the steel - export licensing system, there are signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and the winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Although the high - frequency data has improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of a loose supply in the producing areas. Rebound - shorting is recommended [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is affected by the decline in the CBOT market and other domestic oils, showing a weak trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The short - term positive factors of raw - material shortage are expected to be exhausted, and there is an expectation of a good harvest in the global main producing areas. Short - selling the 05 contract is recommended [1]. - **Cotton**: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, but there is currently no driving force. Future attention should be paid to the government's policies, planting - area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak - season demand [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a consensus among short - sellers due to the global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous fundamental driving force in the short term [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Affected by snow and rain in the producing areas, the supply is affected, but the spot price is relatively stable. Farmers are reluctant to sell, and downstream enterprises are cautious. There is a certain replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is an expectation of a good harvest of soybeans, and the later discount is expected to face selling pressure. Recently, the market has oscillated following reserve - related rumors [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between weak demand and strong supply expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side operations and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the spread [1]. - **Logs**: Affected by the decline in foreign - market quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure as it approaches the delivery month and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement has an impact, and the US has imposed sanctions on Venezuelan crude - oil exports [1]. - **Bitumen**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The cost of raw materials provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The trading volume of butadiene has improved, the cost has increased, the operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a factory shutdown in South Korea, leading to a strong market sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: The PX price is strong, the PTA device is operating at a high load, the pre - festival stocking and sales of polyester have improved, and the consumption of PTA remains high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, are planned to shut down next month. The ethylene - glycol price has rebounded rapidly due to supply - side news, and the demand from the polyester downstream is better than expected [1]. - **Benzene and Naphtha**: There is some support from the cost side, the spot - market sentiment has warmed up slightly, and the total inventory remains high without significant de - stocking [1]. - **Propylene**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, the upward space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost side. The maintenance has decreased, the supply has increased, and the downstream demand has weakened. There is an expectation of oversupply in 2026 [2]. - **Butadiene**: The trading volume has improved, and the cost has increased, providing support for downstream products [1]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was lower than expected, the expectation of price increase in the peak season was priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply was relatively loose in December [2].

12月26日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘红。其中，PTA期货行情呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约 大幅走高2.88%，报5280.00元/吨。 现货方面，据新湖期货介绍，上一交易日，PTA现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。贸易商商谈为 主，12月货在01贴水10~16附近商谈成交，价格商谈区间在4995~5110。1月货在05贴水60~65成交。主 流现货基差在01-13。 对于后市走势，五矿期货表示，PTA加工费短期在没有进一步刺激下上方空间有限，上游PXN不受淡季 影响，在强预期下支撑向上，关注预期交易的逢低做多机会。 成本端，华联期货分析称，布油在近五年低点反弹，油价相对低迷但货币贬值之下黄金强势以及地缘局 势复杂仍将为油价带来支撑，而且欧美对燃油车的限制边际放宽。 基本面上，一德期货分析称，供应上当前较低的加工差导致PTA检修意愿增强，关注预期外的检修计划 (逸盛检修延长)。需求端聚酯开工高位，终端织造负反馈来临，预计聚酯高开工12月仍能维持。 ...

12月26日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘红。其中，碳酸锂期货高开大涨，现报130120.0元/吨，涨幅 7.79%，创2023年11月以来新高。 现货方面，数据显示，12月26日电池级碳酸锂早盘市场价格为120400元/吨较上一工作日上涨4300元。 供应方面，金瑞期货指出，昨日多家正极材料企业宣布减产，湖南裕能（301358）预计影响1.5-3.5万 吨、万润新能0.5-2万吨、德方纳米（300769）部分产线。正极企业联合减产，一方面有助于该季度与 下游的加工费谈判，另一方面则有利于正极企业将原料碳酸锂成本压力向下游传导。 需求方面，冠通期货表示，市场对于明年储能电池的需求保持乐观情绪，淡季不淡继续推高热情。但终 端旺季即将进入收尾阶段，明年起购置税由免征改为减半征收，预计本月需求有前置，后续终端表现或 向上传导至原料端。 展望后市，东吴期货表示，枧下窝确认停产后，碳酸锂开始快速拉升，持续创新高。2026年1月下游锂 电排产数据好于市场预期，进一步增强市场看多市场情绪。但是广期所已经开始调整LC交易政策，注 意回调风险。 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report provides a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR, and VIX data for various stock index options on December 25, 2025 [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Option Trading Volume - On December 25, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai - 50 ETF options was 880,800 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,015,900 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai) was 1,176,500 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 88,300 contracts; GEM ETF options was 1,763,900 contracts; Shanghai - 50 stock index options was 18,800 contracts; CSI 300 stock index options was 94,600 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 239,600 contracts [1] Option PCR - Shanghai - 50 ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.74, with a month - on - month change of +0.19; the open interest PCR was 0.99, with a month - on - month change of - 0.02 [2] - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai): The trading volume PCR was 0.55, with a month - on - month change of - 0.06; the open interest PCR was 0.93, with a month - on - month change of - 0.18 [2] - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai): The trading volume PCR was 0.54, with a month - on - month change of +0.04; the open interest PCR was 1.10, with a month - on - month change of - 0.22 [2] - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.62, with a month - on - month change of +0.10; the open interest PCR was 1.43, with a month - on - month change of +0.03 [2] - GEM ETF options: The trading volume PCR was 0.73, with a month - on - month change of +0.16; the open interest PCR was 1.11, with a month - on - month change of - 0.39 [2] - Shanghai - 50 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.47, with a month - on - month change of - 0.03; the open interest PCR was 0.66, with a month - on - month change of +0.01 [2] - CSI 300 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.41, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08; the open interest PCR was 0.69, with a month - on - month change of +0.01 [2] - CSI 1000 stock index options: The trading volume PCR was 0.44, with a month - on - month change of - 0.08; the open interest PCR was 0.99, with a month - on - month change of +0.00 [2] Option VIX - Shanghai - 50 ETF options: The VIX was 13.41%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.22% [3] - CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai): The VIX was 15.20%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.37% [3] - CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai): The VIX was 19.32%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.26% [3] - Shenzhen 100 ETF options: The VIX was 19.46%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.74% [3] - GEM ETF options: The VIX was 25.06%, with a month - on - month change of +0.16% [3] - Shanghai - 50 stock index options: The VIX was 14.43%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.43% [3] - CSI 300 stock index options: The VIX was 15.94%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.36% [3] - CSI 1000 stock index options: The VIX was 19.09%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.40% [3]

为深入贯彻国家乡村振兴战略，积极响应证监会结对帮扶倡议，申银万国期货精准对接内蒙古科尔沁右 翼中旗(简称科右中旗)，以文化赋能为抓手、公益帮扶为支撑，夯实当地发展基础，为科右中旗乡村振 兴注入长效动力。 近日，申银万国期货向科右中旗成功捐赠5万元，用于精准帮扶，作为科尔沁文化的重要发祥地，科右 中旗拥有深厚的民族文化底蕴。今年以来，申银万国期货聚焦当地文化发展需求，助力科右中旗打造乡 村文化活动室。捐赠精准契合了科右中旗传承弘扬蒙古族刺绣、乌力格尔等非遗文化的需求，极大激发 了当地群众传承民族传统文化的热情。目前，所有捐赠物品已全部到位并投入使用。 申银万国期货将围绕科右中旗发展实际，统筹推进金融帮扶、文化帮扶、公益帮扶及前期落地的生态帮 扶项目，从多个维度激活乡村内生发展动力。 ...