Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the economic "temperature difference" at the end of 2025, highlighting a divergence between macro indicators like PMI and micro indicators such as production and consumption [2][10][115] - At the end of 2025, production indicators such as high furnace operation and PTA operation showed a decline, while manufacturing PMI increased by 0.9 percentage points to 50.1% in December [2][10][115] - Consumer high-frequency indicators further declined at the end of 2025, but the overall consumer goods industry PMI rose to a prosperous zone, increasing by 1 percentage point to 50.4% in December [20][10][115] Group 2 - Investment indicators such as asphalt operation rates and cement shipment rates did not show significant improvement, yet the construction industry PMI surged by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8% at the end of 2025 [3][32][10] - The article identifies that the economic growth momentum is shifting, with new momentum areas lacking high-frequency indicators contributing more to the economy [4][44][10] - The service consumption sector, which lacks tracking indicators, has shown significant improvement, contrasting with the consumer goods sector facing "demand overdraft risks" [4][56][10] Group 3 - The article anticipates that service consumption and new infrastructure investments will support the economy at the beginning of 2026, despite pressures on commodity consumption due to the decline of the "old-for-new" policy [6][78][10] - The easing of the debt issuance effect is expected to lead to a rebound in broad infrastructure and service investment at the beginning of 2026 [7][82][10] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 is projected to extend the "export rush" window, potentially boosting January export figures [8][105][10] Group 4 - The overall economic situation at the end of 2025 remains within a reasonable range, with a projected GDP growth of around 4.4% for the fourth quarter [8][110][10] - The article concludes that the divergence in macro and micro indicators is primarily due to different recovery paces in economic structures, with policies leaning towards service consumption and new infrastructure investments expected to bolster the economy [8][110][10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for companies such as 三生制药 (1530 HK), 固生堂 (2273 HK), 药明合联 (2268 HK), and 中国生物制药 (1177 HK) [3][4][32]. Core Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 11.8% since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the MSCI China Index which rose by 9.1%. The pharmaceutical sector has seen significant growth due to strong institutional investor interest at the start of the year following a valuation correction in Q4 of the previous year [2]. - The trend of innovative drugs going overseas is expected to continue in the long term, with a focus on the clinical progress and data validation of pipelines that have already gone abroad [2]. - The domestic innovative drug market is still relatively small, with an estimated market size of 300-400 billion RMB, of which domestic innovative drugs account for about 1/3, or 100-130 billion RMB. If the proportion of patented drugs in China reaches 66% like the global average, the market size could potentially reach around 760 billion RMB [6]. Summary by Sections Company Recommendations - Recommended companies for investment include 三生制药 (1530 HK), 固生堂 (2273 HK), 药明合联 (2268 HK), and 中国生物制药 (1177 HK) [3][4]. Market Trends - The market for domestic innovative drugs is characterized by high demand due to aging populations, weak pricing from insurance negotiations, strong competition, and short product life cycles. The global pharmaceutical market is projected to reach 1.74 trillion USD in 2024, with China's market size at 166 billion USD, representing only 9.5% of the global market [6]. - The potential market size for domestic innovative drugs going abroad could reach 110 billion USD, nearly 800 billion RMB, if one-third of the global patented drug market is sourced from China [6]. Clinical Development and Financials - In 2025, the total transaction amount for BD (business development) licensing for Chinese innovative drugs is expected to reach 135.65 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 161%, with 70 million USD in upfront payments [6]. - Basic medical insurance expenditure showed a slight recovery in 2025, with cumulative spending growth of 0.5% and income growth of 2.9%, indicating a shift in the growth catalyst from insurance to out-of-pocket and commercial insurance [6].

记者丨韩利明 编辑丨季媛媛 医药领域关乎民生福祉，医疗反腐是守护群众切身利益的关键防线。2025年，我国医疗反腐工作持续推进，中央纪委 国家监委网站在《2025年度十大反腐热词》中明确"反腐为了人民"，并将持续深化医保基金管理领域突出问题治理列 为重要内容。 医保基金牵动千家万户切身利益，监管力度始终不减。2025年收官当日，中央纪委国家监委网站发布《四川:坚持办案 引领 从严查处医保基金管理领域突出问题》，明确提出严肃查处内外勾结欺诈骗保、违规套取医保基金等行为，以及 监督管理乏力背后的不正之风和腐败问题，以强有力的监督执纪执法筑牢医保基金安全防线。 医药行业因资金链条长、权力集中度高、利润空间较大，历来是腐败风险高发领域。步入"十五五"开局之年的2026 年，医疗反腐力度持续加码，中央纪委国家监委网站开年以来已密集刊发多篇文章，进一步释放持续深化医疗反腐的 强烈信号。 有业内人士对21世纪经济报道指出，在医疗这个与百姓生命健康安全密切相关的行业大力反腐，对于捍卫人民生命健 康，保障行业风清气正，助力行业长久良性发展都具有重要意义。随着相关工作的持续深入，2026年医疗反腐将向更 深层次推进，为医药行业高质 ...

Core Insights - The "Digital Marketing Leadership Camp for Health Products" was launched in Beijing, focusing on compliance, platform operation, and cross-industry integration to enhance digital marketing effectiveness and innovation for enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The event was organized by the China Pharmaceutical News Information Association and aimed to build a knowledge system from policy understanding to practical execution [1]. - It featured government regulatory leaders and experts who provided insights into new policies affecting the pharmaceutical industry, including the "Digital Transformation Implementation Plan for the Pharmaceutical Industry (2025-2030)" [1]. Group 2: Key Discussions - Experts analyzed the "Internet Advertising Management Measures" and the core content of the "Internet Advertising Identifiability Enforcement Guidelines" to clarify compliance requirements for digital marketing [1]. - The event included practical strategies for key platforms like Douyin, Xiaohongshu, and JD, with frontline operators sharing comprehensive methodologies for compliance and operational excellence in the health sector [2]. Group 3: Industry Perspectives - Medical professionals and executives from various companies discussed the transformation of doctors' roles and the importance of building trust in the digital age, emphasizing compliance and effective value delivery [2][3]. - The event facilitated discussions on innovative marketing strategies for prescription drugs, highlighting the importance of trust and commercial flow in driving e-commerce sales [2].

Macro Economy - In 2025, China's consumer market showed a moderate recovery, with a retail sales growth of 4.0% year-on-year from January to November, although there was a decline in consumption in categories like home appliances and automobiles in the second half due to subsidy reductions and real estate adjustments [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes economic development and aims for per capita GDP to reach the level of moderately developed countries by 2035, while also focusing on local development and the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Real Estate and Trade - Since mid-2025, there has been downward pressure on real estate transaction volumes, with a 26.6% year-on-year decline in transaction area and a 24.65% drop in transaction units in 30 major cities as of October [2] - Despite challenges in the real estate sector, foreign trade has shown resilience, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in goods exports from January to November, and net exports exceeding 1 trillion USD [2] Technology Sector - In 2025, AI applications achieved significant scale, with a reduction in the "hallucination rate" of a popular AI model from 14% to 2% by the end of the year, leading to a surge in consumer applications [3] - By the end of 2025, global investment in Chinese assets through ETFs reached 831 billion USD, with 95 billion USD flowing into the technology sector, highlighting its importance for foreign investment [3] Semiconductor and AI - The semiconductor, communication, and robotics sectors performed well in 2025, with respective index increases of 127.57%, 45.93%, and 26.33%, driven by rising AI capital expenditures in North America and breakthroughs in domestic supply chains [4] - The AI sector is expected to transition into a monetization phase in 2026, with advancements in semiconductor technology and a focus on cost-effectiveness in the AI industry chain [4] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector in 2025 focused on energy storage and AIDC electrical equipment, with solid-state battery pilot lines and structural optimization in the photovoltaic industry driving temporary price increases [4] - Expectations for 2026 include the solid-state battery reaching a production inflection point [4] Commodities Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an overall increase of 88.50% in 2025, supported by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply chain disruptions [5] - The relationship between AI, new energy, and commodities is highlighted, with predictions of significant shortages in copper and lithium by 2035 [5] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed notable improvement in 2025, with a focus on "emotional consumption" and "brand overseas expansion," particularly in domestic appliances and electric vehicles [6] - The consumption sector is characterized by a "hot first half and a quiet second half," with a focus on channel transformation and community-oriented products [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to experience structural differentiation and value reassessment in 2026, focusing on innovation, international expansion, and policy reforms [7] - Significant breakthroughs in AI applications in healthcare are anticipated, including AI-assisted diagnostics and clinical transformations [7]

1月12日，医疗ETF（159828）盘中涨超2%，政策周期与行业复苏或成关键驱动。 平安证券指出，泛RAS/KRAS抑制剂的开发可覆盖更多突变类型且有望克服耐药问题，其中KRAS是人 类癌症突变的主要基因（81%）。Revolution的泛RAS抑制剂RMC-6236在临床1期中显示出对胰腺导管 癌患者的有效性和可控安全性，目前处于3期临床阶段。CXO和上游领域，医药融资小幅增长，BD交易 和H股IPO回暖激活创新热情，订单端呈现回暖态势，外向型CXO需求增长，内向型CXO订单回暖，建 议关注SMO、临床前CRO等领域。器械行业短期受政策影响承压，但随着反内卷政策出台、集采出清 及企业创新升级和国际业务拓展，基本面有望改善。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 医疗ETF（159828）跟踪的是中证医疗指数（399989），该指数从A股市场中选取涉及医疗器械、医疗 服务、医疗信息化等领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中国医疗主题上市公司的整体表现。中 证医疗指数成分股数量约50只，行业配置集中于医药卫生领域。 ...

1月12日，阿里健康午后继续走高，涨超9%，报6.33港元/股。消息面上，据阿里健康官微消息，1月8 日，阿里健康与北京梅尔森医药技术开发有限公司达成战略合作，共同宣布将在儿童专科创新药领域展 开深度合作。 来源：视频滚动新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend as it enters the first week of 2026, with significant increases in major indices and trading volumes, indicating a potential bullish market phase driven by various factors [1][3][10]. Market Performance - As of January 9, all three major indices closed higher, with the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.15%, the ChiNext Index up 0.77%, and the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.92%, reaching 4120.43 points, marking its first return to this level since July 2015 [3]. - The total trading volume for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.12 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 322.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day, marking the fifth occurrence in A-share history of daily trading volume exceeding 3 trillion yuan [3]. - Over the first five trading days of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.89%, with the STAR 50 Index increasing by 9.80% [3]. Sector Performance - The metals and satellite sectors have attracted significant capital inflows, with 598 industry-themed ETFs collectively receiving a net inflow of 13.827 billion yuan over five trading days [4][5]. - The Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF led the inflows with 3.721 billion yuan, followed by the Yongying National Satellite Communication Industry ETF with 3.589 billion yuan [4]. - The chemical sector also saw high interest, with related ETFs experiencing a net inflow of 3.853 billion yuan [5]. Fund Flows - The nonferrous metals sector saw a total net inflow of 8.983 billion yuan across 10 related ETFs, while the satellite industry attracted 8.821 billion yuan across 6 ETFs [5]. - Conversely, the robotics and battery sectors experienced significant net outflows, with 1.348 billion yuan and 1.077 billion yuan, respectively [6]. - Other sectors with notable outflows included military and pharmaceutical industries, with net outflows of 785 million yuan and 679 million yuan, respectively [6]. ETF Scale Growth - The total scale of 598 industry-themed ETFs reached 1.178127 trillion yuan, with a cumulative growth of 83.468 billion yuan in the first five trading days of the year [7]. - The Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF saw the largest scale increase of 5.555 billion yuan, followed by the Yongying National Satellite Communication Industry ETF with 5.109 billion yuan [7]. - Despite some ETFs experiencing net outflows, significant increases in net asset values have driven overall scale growth in various sectors, including semiconductors and military [8]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that 2026 may witness a "Bull Market 2.0," driven by improvements in fundamentals, technological trends, asset migration, and policy easing [10]. - The focus is expected to shift towards technology growth as the main line, with cyclical resources as a supporting factor, both showing potential for sustained excess returns [10]. - Key areas of interest include AI infrastructure, commercial aerospace, and strategic metals, with a particular emphasis on sectors benefiting from policy support and improving supply-demand dynamics [11].

据悉，长期以来，国内缺乏专为婴幼儿设计的外用血管瘤治疗药物。贝美净®不仅是全球首个针对该适 应症的外用凝胶剂型，也标志着我国在儿童专用改良型新药研发领域取得了从科研创新到产业转化的重 大突破。贝美净®(马来酸噻吗洛尔凝胶)将于1月13日在阿里健康全网独家首发。 阿里健康(00241)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.29%，报5.96港元，成交额5.19亿港元。 消息面上，据阿里健康官微消息，1月8日，阿里健康与北京梅尔森医药技术开发有限公司达成战略合 作，共同宣布将在儿童专科创新药领域展开深度合作。双方将围绕全球首款获批用于治疗增殖期浅表性 婴儿血管瘤的外用创新药——贝美净®(马来酸噻吗洛尔凝胶)，开展从患者教育、公益援助到全渠道首 发的深度协同。 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's pharmaceutical sector is experiencing multiple catalysts in early 2026, including significant BD transactions in AI healthcare, positive news regarding brain-computer interfaces overseas, and the implementation of commercial insurance for innovative drugs [1] - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has seen a strong increase, with a year-to-date rise exceeding 13%, leading the key indices in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange launched Hang Seng Biotechnology Index futures in November 2025, enhancing its expanding ecosystem of derivative products and providing investors with precise risk management tools [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index is the only index in the Hong Kong stock market with index futures for the pharmaceutical and healthcare sectors [1] - Among the ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, the Hang Seng Healthcare ETF (159892) ranks first in scale, exceeding 7 billion, and offers good liquidity for investors looking to invest in the biotechnology sector [1]