Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the oilseed and fats market, particularly focusing on the impacts of U.S.-China tariff negotiations on global agricultural markets, especially soybeans and palm oil [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: - COMEX and LME inventory pressures are increasing, which may lead to the elimination of price differentials between the two exchanges. Oil and gold prices are experiencing low volatility, indicating potential trading opportunities under external shocks [1][2]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs**: - Post U.S.-China tariff negotiations, extreme risks have not escalated, but retaliatory policies continue to affect global agricultural markets. North American soybean supply is decreasing while overseas palm oil prices are rising, making the fourth quarter's domestic soybean supply-demand balance critical [1][3]. 3. **Soybean Supply and Demand**: - The expectation of a bumper crop in South America is suppressing prices, while domestic soybean meal faces inventory pressure and tight expectations for the fourth quarter. Current enterprise inventories have exceeded one million tons, limiting the upward price movement of soybean meal [1][4]. 4. **U.S. Soybean Production**: - The new season's U.S. soybean yield is at a record level of 52.5 bushels per acre, up 4% from the previous year, despite a 4% reduction in planting area. However, due to tariff uncertainties, U.S. soybean exports are significantly lagging, with the latest annual export forecast at 47 million tons, which is below expectations and may be further downgraded [5][7]. 5. **China's Soybean Imports**: - China is expected to import approximately 59.8 million tons of soybeans from May to September 2025, an increase from 55 million tons in 2024. This increment will provide inventory buffer for the fourth quarter. If no U.S. soybeans are imported in the fourth quarter, a gap of about 2.5 million tons may arise, but it can be managed through tight balance due to Brazilian export potential and domestic stocks [1][13]. 6. **Palm Oil Market Dynamics**: - Palm oil prices have recently surged due to better-than-expected Malaysian inventory data and increased exports. The key to the global palm oil price recovery lies in the restoration of Indonesian inventories, with the B40 biodiesel policy in Indonesia expected to support domestic consumption [1][16][17]. 7. **Future Trends in Oilseed Market**: - The oilseed market is influenced by various factors, including the increase in U.S. biofuel blending ratios and the seasonal impact of weather changes. These factors will collectively determine the future direction of the oilseed market [6]. 8. **Competition from South America**: - Brazil's record soybean production and exports have intensified competition for U.S. soybeans, with Brazil exporting 69 million tons from March to July 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year. This situation raises concerns about the U.S. export outlook [9][12]. 9. **Domestic Consumption Challenges**: - Despite U.S. policies to boost domestic consumption through biofuels, the loss of Chinese demand creates a significant gap that cannot be fully compensated. The EPA's increase in biodiesel blending ratios is not sufficient to offset the lost demand from China [9][12]. 10. **Market Sentiment**: - The soybean meal market is experiencing increased trading volume and price expectations, reflecting strong market sentiment for future price increases. The outcome of U.S.-China trade relations will significantly impact market dynamics [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - The potential for large-scale imports of Argentine soybean meal remains uncertain due to possible impacts on the domestic crushing industry, necessitating ongoing monitoring of policy changes [14]. - The competitive pricing of Argentine soybean meal and Brazilian soybeans poses challenges for U.S. exports, with Argentine soybean meal priced at approximately 2,880 yuan per ton, making it more competitive than domestic prices [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The strong pattern of oils is difficult to change in the short - term due to factors such as the low inventory of oils in the same period over the years, the expected increase in US biodiesel demand, and the potential insufficiency of palm oil production increase in Southeast Asia. However, the upside space is limited by factors like the annual - level oil production increase expectation, high near - term palm oil production, and uncertain RVO rules. Palm oil is expected to be range - bound, with a possible upward trend in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: In July, rapeseed oil fluctuated, while palm oil and soybean oil rose. The net long positions of foreign capital in the three major oils oscillated near historical highs. Malaysian palm oil may have slightly increased its inventory in July due to rising production and declining exports. Ex - market rapeseed prices entered a range - bound pattern after a high - level correction. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil widened [11]. - **International Oils**: The USDA July report estimated an increase of about 1.5 million tons in US industrial demand for soybean oil in the 2025/2026 season. Canadian rapeseed farmers' shipments decreased, and the contact between China and Australia on rapeseed trade pressured rapeseed prices. India may start a replenishment process, supporting palm oil export demand [11]. - **Domestic Oils**: In July, soybean oil had good sales, while palm oil sales were weak. The total domestic oil inventory was about 400,000 tons higher than last year. In the next two months, soybean crushing volume will decline slightly, palm oil export willingness will increase, and rapeseed oil will gradually reduce its inventory [11]. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Fundamentally, factors such as the US biodiesel policy draft, low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asia, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy support the oil price center. Palm oil prices are expected to be range - bound in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upside is limited [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the market is expected to be range - bound. No specific arbitrage strategy is recommended [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of different contracts and the seasonal basis, which helps analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][24][27] 3. Supply Side - **Palm Oil Production and Export**: Charts show the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil [30][31][32][33] - **Palm - growing Region Weather**: Charts display the weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - growing regions, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which may affect palm oil production [35][37] 4. Profit and Inventory - **Overall Inventory**: Charts show the total inventory of the three major domestic oils and the inventory of Indian imported vegetable oils [43] - **Individual Oil Inventory and Profit**: Charts present the import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil, the spot crushing profit and main oil mill inventory of soybean oil, the spot average crushing profit of rapeseed and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil in East China, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil [46][48][49][51] 5. Cost Side - **Palm Oil Cost**: Charts show the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil [54] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil Cost**: Charts display the CNF import price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of rapeseed [57] 6. Demand Side - **Oils Transaction**: Charts show the cumulative transaction volume of palm oil and soybean oil in the crop year [60] - **Biodiesel Profit**: Charts present the POGO spread (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread (soybean oil - heating oil), which reflect the profit situation of biodiesel [62]

油脂油料产业日报 2025/08/08 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

| 公司官方微信 | | --- | | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 0371-58620083 | 1 中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（143）期 发布日期：2025-08-07 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/8/7 | 2025/8/6 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,223.50 | 1,221.00 | 2.50 | 0.205 | | | 焦炭 | 1,647.50 | 1,644.50 | 3.0 | 0.182 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,430.00 | 15.495.00 | -65.0 | -0.419 | | | 20号胶 | 12,280.00 | 12,320.00 | -40.0 | -0.325 | | | 塑料 | 7,305.00 | 7,321.00 | -16.0 | -0.219 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 7,072.00 | 7,078.00 | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Palm Oil - International market: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure from production growth, oscillating around the annual line of 4,250 ringgit. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 4,250 ringgit for upward movement; otherwise, it may fall below the annual - line support and decline to 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures are in high - level consolidation, influenced by the adjustment of Malaysian palm oil. They are expected to consolidate around 9,000 yuan. Attention should be paid to whether it can stand above 9,000 yuan, as well as the gains and losses near the 20 - day moving average and whether Malaysian palm oil can stand above 4,250 ringgit [3]. Soybean Oil - Factory sales have improved recently as some market participants are bullish. Although the factory's soybean oil inventory is still increasing, terminal demand is expected to improve due to the start of universities and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, so the inventory may decrease in the second half of the month. Soybean oil has a price advantage over palm oil and rapeseed oil, which supports the basis quote, and the basis quote is bullish in the long - term [4]. Bean Meal - Argentina's bean meal purchases have limited impact on the market. Due to the tight supply expected in the fourth quarter, oil mills are accelerating South American purchases, pushing up the premiums in Brazil and Argentina. The price of the Lianbo 09 contract will end in oscillation, while the upward momentum of the Lianbo 01 contract is stable, with attention on the resistance at 3,100 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short term [15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fats and Oils Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - P 1 - 5 is 212 yuan/ton, up 18; Y - P 01 is - 724 yuan/ton, down 106; other spreads are also presented in the table [5]. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil 01 is 8,986 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; BMD palm oil main contract is 4,249 ringgit/ton, down 0.96%; other prices and spreads are also provided [6]. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil 01 is 8,380 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 53.38 cents/pound, down 1.18%; other prices and spreads are also given [11]. Oilseeds Futures Prices - Bean meal 01 closes at 3,072, up 7 (0.23%); bean meal 05 closes at 2,762, up 11 (0.4%); other futures prices are also listed [16]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05 is 310, down 4; RM01 - 05 is 61, up 9; other spreads are also presented [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that oils will lack driving factors and maintain range - bound oscillations. For protein meals, it is advisable to buy on dips. [8][11] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Viewpoint Strategy 3.1.1 Oils Main Viewpoints - **Core Logic**: The good rate of US soybeans remains high. In August, weather has a significant impact. Rainfall in the main US soybean - producing areas in the next 15 days is slightly lower than normal, and soybeans are expected to grow normally. Brazil's soybean export peak is approaching, and exports are expected to decrease. US tariff policies suppress soybean exports. Argentina will lower soybean export tariffs, squeezing US soybean demand. CBOT soybeans are weak but with limited downside. Palm oil is in the seasonal production increase period, with increased production and weak exports in Malaysia in July, indicating significant inventory accumulation. Indonesia's palm oil production recovery is unfulfilled, and inventory is low. Domestic palm oil is slowly accumulating inventory, and future purchases are few. Palm oil is affected by crude oil. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Rapeseed inventory is falling, and imports are expected to increase slightly in August. [8] - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The import cost of palm oil (August shipment) is 9,340 yuan/ton, with a spot profit of - 506 yuan/ton and an August shipment spot - market profit of - 134 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, rapeseed is 195,000 tons, and palm oil is 180,000 tons. [8] - **Demand**: In July, the total domestic sales of bulk soybean oil from key oil mills were 463,200 tons, a 20.09% increase from the previous month. Palm oil sales were 10,376 tons, a 62.20% decrease from June. The pick - up volume of rapeseed oil from coastal oil mills was 123,400 tons, a decrease of 15,900 tons from the previous month. [8] - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in key regions nationwide was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week and a 17.10% increase year - on - year. [8] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the oscillation range for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [8] 3.1.2 Protein Meals Main Viewpoints - **Core Logic**: Similar to oils, US soybeans are in a good growth situation, and Brazilian and US soybeans face export challenges. In August, soybean arrivals will be large, oil mill operating rates will remain high, and soybean meal will accumulate inventory. Pig farming is promoting the reduction and substitution of soybean meal, reducing future demand. Canadian rapeseed is expected to grow normally. Australia and China are close to an agreement on rapeseed exports. Recent rapeseed arrivals are few, and coastal oil mill rapeseed meal inventory is low, but imported rapeseed meal inventory is high. Rapeseed imports are expected to increase slightly in August, and the operating rate may recover. [11] - **Cost and Profit**: As of July 30, the arrival cost of Brazilian soybeans for September delivery is 3,777 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 121 yuan/ton. The arrival duty - paid price of Canadian rapeseed (August shipment) is 4,942 yuan/ton, with a spot crushing profit of 295 yuan/ton and a spot - market crushing profit of 108 yuan/ton. [11] - **Supply**: The estimated soybean import volume in August is 10.69 million tons, and rapeseed is 195,000 tons. [11] - **Demand**: In July, the total sales of soybean meal were 4.0215 million tons, a decrease of 954,800 tons from the previous month, a 19.19% decrease; a year - on - year increase of 1.0297 million tons, a 34.42% increase. From Week 27 to Week 31, the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal from coastal oil mills was 137,900 tons, and the consumption of imported rapeseed meal (Nantong) was 119,500 tons. [11] - **Inventory**: In Week 30, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0431 million tons, a 4.48% increase from the previous week and a 22.50% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that soybean meal will gradually accumulate inventory in August. In July, the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were stable at around 8 days. In Week 30, the rapeseed meal inventory of coastal oil mills was 19,000 tons, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was 663,600 tons. [11] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to buy on dips for unilateral trading and wait and see for arbitrage. [11] 3.2 2025 July Oils and Meals Market Review 3.2.1 Oils Market Review - **Market Trend**: In July, the oils sector oscillated strongly. The palm oil led the increase due to factors such as Malaysia's reverse - seasonal production decrease in June, strong exports and low inventory in Indonesia, and biodiesel news. The CBOT soybeans were weak, but US biodiesel news boosted US soybean oil. The rapeseed futures price oscillated, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory fell from a high level. The oils sector rose 3.29%, the palm oil main contract rose 6.84%, the soybean oil main contract rose 2.61%, and the rapeseed oil main contract rose 1.01%. [15] - **Spot Price**: In July, the spot prices of the three major oils oscillated strongly, with palm oil having the largest increase. On July 31, 2025, the mainstream price of rapeseed oil was 9,632 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton monthly; the average price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,372 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton monthly; the national average price of 24 - degree palm oil was 8,993 yuan/ton, up 458 yuan/ton monthly. [24] 3.2.2 Protein Meals Market Review - **Market Trend**: In July, soybean meal and rapeseed meal first rose and then fell. It was expected that rapeseed imports would be few from July to August, and the operating rate of oil mills would be low. Aquaculture was in the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal was strong. The inventory of coastal oil mill rapeseed meal was low, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory fell from a high level. Rapeseed meal was strong. In late July, CBOT soybeans continued to decline, and the demand for soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased due to pig farming regulation. [28] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of rapeseed meal increased significantly due to high demand and low inventory. The spot price of soybean meal oscillated strongly under the drive of rapeseed meal, with an average price of 2,945 yuan/ton on July 31, 2025, up 43 yuan/ton monthly; the average spot price of rapeseed meal was 2,600 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton monthly. [31] 3.3 Oils and Oilseeds Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 International Situation - **US Soybeans**: The weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is normal. The good rate is high, with a flowering rate of 76%, a pod - setting rate of 41%, and a good rate of 70% as of July 27. The soybean crushing volume in June decreased month - on - month but was at a high level in the same period of previous years, and the crushing profit recovered from a low level. [36][40][44] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: In July, Brazil's soybean export volume was 12.06 million tons, a 10.53% decrease from the previous month and a 25.63% increase year - on - year. The CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans continued to rise. [47] - **Argentine Soybeans**: In June, Argentina's soybean export volume was 1 million tons, a 18.10% decrease from the previous month and a 29.11% decrease year - on - year. Argentina will lower the soybean export tariff from 33% to 26%. [50] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: In May, Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons due to a surge in exports. [55] - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In June, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.6923 million tons, a 4.48% decrease from the previous month and a 4.77% increase year - on - year. In July, the production increased 7.07% month - on - month, exports were weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. [60][64] - **Canadian Rapeseed**: The weather in the main Canadian rapeseed - producing areas is normal. As of July 28, the growth of rapeseed in Saskatchewan was generally in good condition, and the good rate of rapeseed in Alberta was 60.3%. As of July 27, the rapeseed export volume decreased 72.8% from the previous week to 55,100 tons. In June, the rapeseed crushing volume increased 3% from the previous month. [67][71][76] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - **Soybeans**: It is expected that 10.69 million tons of soybeans will arrive in August. As of the 30th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of oil mills was 645,590 tons, up 0.52% from the previous week. In July, the soybean import cost oscillated, and the crushing profit increased slightly. In July, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 10.1292 million tons, and it is estimated to be 10.15 million tons in August. [81][85][94] - **Palm Oil**: The import cost of palm oil increased in July. The import profit improved. It is estimated that the palm oil import volume in August will be 180,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from July. [98][102][106] - **Rapeseed**: The import cost of Canadian rapeseed oscillated in July. The crushing profit of imported rapeseed increased in terms of spot profit and decreased in terms of spot - market profit. It is estimated that the rapeseed arrival volume in August will be 195,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons from July. In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills increased. [111][114][123] - **Inventory and Sales of Oils**: As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3618 million tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous week. The inventory trends of the three major oils diverged, with soybean oil and palm oil accumulating inventory and rapeseed oil inventory falling from a high level. In July, the sales of soybean oil increased, while the sales of rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased. [127][133][136] - **Inventory and Sales of Protein Meals**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills increased rapidly. In July, the sales of soybean meal decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills recovered from a low level, and the imported rapeseed meal inventory was still high. The consumption of rapeseed meal increased due to aquaculture demand. [140][144][156]

Group 1: Market Performance - Palm oil futures experienced a significant increase, with the main contract closing at 9064 yuan/ton, up nearly 3%, surpassing the 9000 yuan/ton mark [1] - However, the night session saw a decline, bringing prices back below 9000 yuan/ton [1] - The strong performance was attributed to rising production costs and the impact of typhoon weather on import arrivals [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Expectations for Malaysia's palm oil inventory to continue increasing in July, projected to reach 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month increase of over 10% [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports showed growth in May and June, with biodiesel consumption exceeding 1 million tons per month since February [2] - The implementation of Indonesia's B50 policy by 2026 is expected to increase palm oil consumption by nearly 3 million tons [2] Group 3: Tariff Changes and Import Trends - The U.S. reduced the tariff rate on Malaysian palm oil from 25% to 19%, while the EU lowered tariffs by 20-40% [3] - India's palm oil imports decreased by 10% in July to 858,000 tons due to previous price increases, but there remains a demand for stocking ahead of the Diwali festival [3] Group 4: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic palm oil commercial inventory as of August 1 was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons (5.41%) month-on-month [3] - The import cost of Malaysian palm oil rose to 9291.27 yuan/ton, ending a three-day decline [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The palm oil market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to the upcoming MPOB report [4][5] - The 2509 contract may face downward pressure due to ample domestic inventory and supply, while the 2601 contract is anticipated to maintain a strong upward trend driven by seasonal demand and biodiesel policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The palm oil futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with prices fluctuating between 8806.00 and 9018.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 2.18% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for palm oil opened at 8808.00 CNY/ton and reached a high of 9018.00 CNY/ton during the trading session [1] - The market is showing a strong performance with a general upward trend in palm oil prices [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Donghai Futures indicates that the macroeconomic environment is weakening, and with OPEC+ agreeing to a significant production increase in September, the palm oil market may face downward pressure [1] - Ningzheng Futures notes that typhoon weather has delayed palm oil shipments to East China, leading to a slight decrease in domestic commercial inventory and a minor recovery in the soybean-palm oil price spread [1] - Zhonghui Futures highlights that policies in Indonesia and Malaysia favor palm oil consumption, with buying demand from China and India, suggesting a bullish outlook for the market [1]

广东作为国内重要的油脂油料市场，油脂品种丰富、市场规模大，同时，广东也是国内主要的饲料及水 产养殖产地，因此形成了具有集群效应的油脂油料产业链。不过，在供应压力下，油脂行业产能利用率 逐年下降，管理压榨利润风险对于油脂油料企业来说至关重要。面对全球供应链重塑与市场波动加剧的 双重挑战，一场关乎"油瓶子"安全的产业升级正在这里展开。 产能持续扩张行业产能利用率下行 据了解，广东地区形成粮油加工产业集群，主要依托三大地域优势。"首先，广东作为国内第二大饲料 原料消费市场，饲料年产量持续位居全国前列，其中水产饲料产量更居全国首位，这使得广东的菜粕等 原料的核心需求量成为全国之最；其次，区域内物流体系高度发达，港口码头的中转能力和运输效率显 著优于其他地区，为原料进口及成品流通提供了关键支撑；最后，产业链下游龙头企业如海大集团、温 氏股份等均在广东集中布局，形成了紧密协同的产业生态。"东莞市富之源饲料蛋白开发有限公司（下 称东莞富之源）总经理范振宇告诉期货日报记者，基于庞大的市场容量、高效的物流基础设施以及完善 的产业链配套，广东地区已成为粮油压榨行业规模化发展的战略要地。 当前，国产菜籽的崛起正悄然改变产业格局。近 ...

Group 1: Report Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures opened lower due to inventory growth concerns, with short - term pressure to break below 4,200 ringgit and potentially test 4,000 ringgit support. After a brief shock or digestion of the MPOB report, it may continue to decline, possibly briefly breaking below 4,000 ringgit [3]. - Domestically, Dalian palm oil futures are under pressure at high levels and may test the 8,800 - yuan support. If it breaks below, it may continue to decline and could potentially fall to around 8,500 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - Due to high soybean arrivals, factory operating rates are above 60%, leading to increased soybean oil production and inventory in most regions. However, historical data suggests inventory will soon reach a peak and then decline as demand increases, causing spot basis quotes to rise after narrow - range fluctuations [4]. Bean Meal - The stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations persists. China's fourth - quarter soybean purchases are locked in South America, with high Brazilian and rising Argentine premiums supporting costs. The short - term continuous bean meal 09 contract will test the 3,040 - 3,050 yuan resistance. Spot prices are rising, and the basis is narrowing. As of the end of Week 31, 2025, domestic bean meal inventory decreased to 1.053 million tons, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton [17]. Group 2: Oil Price and Spread Information Oil Price - Palm oil: The 01 contract is at 8,832 yuan/ton (-1.1%), the 05 contract is at 8,638 yuan/ton (-1.21%), the 09 contract is at 8,838 yuan/ton (-0.81%), and BMD palm oil is at 4,172 ringgit/ton (-1.72%) [7]. - Soybean oil: The 01 contract is at 8,214 yuan/ton (0.59%), the 05 contract is at 7,848 yuan/ton (0.29%), the 09 contract is at 8,250 yuan/ton (0.47%), and CBOT soybean oil is at 53.9 cents/pound (-1.55%) [13]. Spread - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 186 yuan/ton (+4), P 5 - 9 is - 166 yuan/ton (-2), P 9 - 1 is - 20 yuan/ton (-2) [5]. - Soybean oil - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 704 yuan/ton (+56), Y - P 05 is - 896 yuan/ton (+32), Y - P 09 is - 636 yuan/ton (+72) [5]. Group 3: Oilseed Futures Price and Spread Information Futures Price - Bean meal: The 01 contract is at 3,055 (+18, 0.59%), the 05 contract is at 2,746 (+8, 0.29%), the 09 contract is at 3,024 (+14, 0.47%) [18]. - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract is at 2,432 (+23, 0.95%), the 05 contract is at 2,380 (+5, 0.21%), the 09 contract is at 2,678 (+3, 0.11%) [18]. Spread - Bean meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 299 (unchanged), M05 - 09 is - 272 (unchanged), M09 - 01 is - 27 (unchanged) [19][21]. - Rapeseed meal spreads: RM01 - 05 is 34 (unchanged), RM05 - 09 is - 300 (unchanged), RM09 - 01 is 266 (unchanged) [19][21].