Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [4] Core Views - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The US government proposed a 15-item conflict-ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, but Iran doubts the US's sincerity due to previous attacks and troop deployments [1] - The capacity of alternative oil pipelines in the Middle East still has a huge gap compared with the normal shipping volume through the strait, and the release of strategic oil reserves by IEA member countries is only for emergency buffering [1] - The short-term oil price has a high risk of two-way fluctuations, and the long-term core variable determining the oil price trend is whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open [1] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The US proposed a peace talk plan to Iran, leading to a significant decline in fuel oil prices [2] - The logistics suppression of supply has not been lifted, and the supply gap in the Middle East cannot be fully hedged [2] - The approaching summer power generation peak may bring more fuel oil demand due to the LNG supply gap [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil production has decreased due to supply reductions in Kuwait and other overseas refineries, as well as domestic raw material issues, and the high crack spread of refined oil supports the low-sulfur trend [2] - The geopolitical situation is the core of trading, and any progress in the peace talks will drive the market to form a wide-range shock pattern [2] Asphalt - Domestic refining enterprises are worried about future imported raw materials, and some refineries have started or plan to reduce device capacity utilization, leading to a corresponding contraction in asphalt supply [3] - The asphalt production plan for March has been revised down, and the production in April has further declined to an absolute low in recent years [3] - The sample refinery's shipment volume has decreased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year decline has further expanded [3] - The refinery inventory has decreased month-on-month, the social inventory has turned negative year-on-year, and the overall commercial inventory level is low [3] - The asphalt fundamentals have marginal improvement expectations, and the BU price trend will follow the oil price, but the downside space is expected to be limited [3]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the situation in Iran has led to a rise in oil prices, causing a shift in monetary policy expectations from rate cuts to rate hikes among major central banks in Europe and the US [2][5]. Group 1: Central Bank Policy Shifts - The recent "Super Central Bank Week" saw the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England signaling hawkish stances, resulting in a significant adjustment in market expectations for monetary policy [2]. - Futures markets now imply that the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline has been pushed back to the second half of 2027, with some expectations of rate hikes in 2026 [2]. - If central banks initiate rate hikes, global macro liquidity will tighten, potentially leading to significant declines in global equities, bonds, and gold [5]. Group 2: Supply Shock and Inflation - Geopolitical issues are causing supply shocks, leading to simultaneous inflation and growth concerns, placing central banks in a dilemma between stabilizing growth and controlling inflation [7]. - Historical analysis shows that the Federal Reserve often adopts a "look through" approach to supply shocks, with mixed outcomes in past geopolitical conflicts [7][8]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy in response to supply shocks depends on whether oil price increases trigger second-round effects, which are influenced by factors such as the intensity and duration of geopolitical conflicts [9][10]. Group 3: Structural Changes in the Economy - The importance of oil in the economy has decreased, with global oil consumption intensity dropping by approximately 60% from 1973 to 2024 [13]. - The transition to a "Great Moderation" era has lowered the inflation baseline, reducing the transmission of supply shocks to core inflation [17]. - Successful past monetary policies, such as the "Volcker Shock," have established central bank credibility, anchoring inflation expectations [19]. Group 4: Optimal Monetary Policy Strategy - The optimal monetary policy response may involve initially tolerating inflation risks and then tightening once inflation accumulates beyond a critical threshold [21]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions during the Russia-Ukraine conflict demonstrated this strategy, successfully managing inflation expectations without causing significant unemployment [20]. Group 5: Current Economic Outlook - Current inflation expectations in China, the US, and Europe are stable, suggesting limited risks from second-round effects, leading to a potential trend towards looser monetary policies if geopolitical tensions do not escalate further [28][30]. - The US economy, having transitioned to a net oil exporter since 2019, shows resilience against oil price shocks, with nominal CPI around 2.4%, close to policy targets [31]. - Europe faces higher risks of temporary stagflation due to its energy dependency, with the ECB likely to maintain a hawkish stance under a single inflation target [33].

Group 1: U.S. Resource Diplomacy and Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. aims to control Venezuelan oil, but significant gaps exist between production and reserves, limiting short-term price impacts[1] - The U.S.-Iran conflict has led to a 34% increase in oil prices and a 138% rise in the oil transportation index since January 12, 2026[1] - The U.S. is increasingly focused on Greenland's resources and military value, with high barriers to Arctic development creating uncertainties[1] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Key Minerals - Global mineral production is highly concentrated, with China accounting for 27% and the U.S. at 12%, while the top 20 economies account for 87% of total production[12] - The U.S. has shifted its resource strategy from market cooperation to direct control, reflecting a rise in resource nationalism since 2017[4] - The U.S. has identified 60 critical minerals, with 15 showing over 100% net import dependence, highlighting vulnerabilities in supply chains[22][28] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Scarce Metals - Five key metals (platinum group metals, cobalt, nickel, copper, lithium) show high production and reserve concentration, indicating significant supply chain risks[4] - Prices for these five metals have increased significantly since 2025, with cobalt and platinum prices rising faster than gold[4] - The relative value of these metals remains underestimated, suggesting potential investment opportunities[4]

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On March 24, 2026, the price of the SC main contract dropped significantly from 834.6 yuan/barrel on March 23 to 739.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 11.44%. The price range was from 735.4 to 834.6 yuan/barrel, indicating significant downward pressure. The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at $88.87/barrel and $96.07/barrel respectively, with a change of 0.0%. The SC-Brent spread weakened from $24.78/barrel to $11.24/barrel, a decline of 54.64%, and the SC-WTI spread weakened from $31.98/barrel to $18.44/barrel, a decline of 42.34%, both indicating a narrowing premium of SC relative to international benchmark crude oils. The Brent-WTI spread remained stable at $7.2/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread fell from 23.4 yuan/barrel to 17.1 yuan/barrel, a decline of 26.92%, reflecting the weakening of near - month contracts relative to forward contracts [2]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: No relevant data provided [67] Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes Analysis - **Supply Side**: On March 25, Chevron planned to purchase crude oil from Sabre Corporation to supply its refineries in California. On March 24, Norway's national oil company started the drilling phase of the Brazilian Raia project. India arranged a large number of liquefied petroleum gas cargoes. After the US waived sanctions, India's Reliance Industries purchased 5 million barrels of Iranian crude oil. Italy's Eni Group held consultations with US authorities regarding potential participation in the restart of Venezuela's oil industry. Japan released about 8.5 million kiloliters of crude oil reserves. Overall, the supply may increase [8][9][12]. - **Demand Side**: In February, India's gasoline exports decreased by 17.8% year - on - year to 1.4 million tons, and diesel exports decreased by 26.8% year - on - year to 1.7 million tons, indicating weak demand. The Trump administration may relax summer gasoline regulations, potentially stimulating gasoline demand. In Chile, fuel prices rose significantly due to international oil price fluctuations, which may suppress short - term consumption. The nuclear power plant agreement between Vietnam and Russia has limited impact on crude oil demand. Overall, demand is under downward pressure, mainly driven by the decline in refined oil exports [3]. - **Inventory Side**: The futures warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1,460 tons compared to the previous trading day, while the futures warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil remained unchanged. The Japan Petroleum Association stopped publishing inventory data. Japan released about 8.5 million kiloliters of crude oil reserves, increasing the available inventory in the market. Overall, the inventory side is affected by the release of reserves and the decrease in warehouse receipts, resulting in an increase in supply [3][11]. Price Trend Judgment The crude oil price is expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, mainly affected by geopolitical uncertainties. On the supply side, the activities of oil - producing countries outside OPEC+ are active, such as the start of drilling in Norway, India's purchase of Iranian crude oil, and the potential resumption of production in Venezuela, combined with Japan's release of crude oil reserves, which increases short - term supply. On the demand side, the significant decline in India's refined oil exports reflects the weakening demand of global refineries, and the apparent demand of EIA may be under pressure, while the profit of refined oil is dragged down by the decline in diesel and gasoline exports. On the inventory side, the decrease in warehouse receipts and the release of reserves increase the market circulation volume, suppressing price rebounds. In the short term, if the negotiation makes substantial progress, the oil price may drop significantly, while if the negotiation breaks down, it may lead to an out - of - control oil price and severe market fluctuations [4].

Market Concerns - The recent market decline was triggered by the sudden outbreak of the Iran war, raising concerns about energy supply and the potential impact on the Belt and Road Initiative [5][6]. - Energy supply concerns are mitigated by China's diversified energy imports and strategic reserves, allowing for a calm response compared to other countries [7]. - The demand side shows that China has made significant progress in energy transition, positioning itself as a leader in clean energy, which may benefit from rising fossil fuel prices [7]. - Inflation concerns are primarily a U.S. issue, as China is currently facing deflation rather than inflation, making rising oil prices potentially beneficial for its economic policies [7][8]. Market Reactions - The market's reaction to the Iran conflict is driven by liquidity concerns, as expectations of delayed interest rate cuts or potential rate hikes could pressure global liquidity [11]. - The U.S. debt situation, with a current size of $39 trillion, complicates the scenario, as maintaining high interest rates would lead to unsustainable interest payments [11][12]. - Domestic market impacts are limited, as funds that were likely to exit have already done so, and the current market lacks the previous liquidity drain effects [12][13]. Investment Insights - The current market situation presents opportunities, as the A-share market is not overvalued, and the Hong Kong market is considered very cheap [22]. - There is a significant amount of maturing deposits (approximately 80 trillion) that could flow into the stock market, providing liquidity [23]. - Policy support from the central bank aims to maintain stability in financial markets, indicating that significant declines are unlikely [23][24]. - Investors are encouraged to reassess their holdings and maintain confidence, as historical patterns suggest that downturns can lead to subsequent recoveries [22][24].

以下文章来源于摩根在野 ，作者摩根在野 摩根在野 . 前IT行业资深人士,现数字游民,个人投资者|越野跑爱好者|分享个人思考感悟&投资理财观点&多元资产配置&海外科技观察 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：摩根在野 来源：雪球 昨晚 ， 国会山股神又TACO了 ： 川普发文宣布 ， 美国将"推迟5天"打击伊朗发电站及能源基础设施 ， 并称美伊双方在过去两天进行了"非常良 好且富有成效的对话" 。 消息一出 ， 布伦特原油价格下跌近9% ， 至每桶97美元 ： 自3月19日以来首次跌破100美元关口 ； WTI原油价格则下跌近10% ， 至每桶88 美元 。 市场的反应很诚实 ： 人们太渴望这件事是真的了 。 然而 ， 伊朗媒体随即发出否认 ， 称伊朗与美国之间"目前没有任何直接或间接的沟通" 。 无论你信不信川普 ， 但有一系列现实问题值得我们思 考 ： 如果明天正式停战 ， 霍尔木兹海峡马上重新通航 ， 油价能回到开战前吗 ？ 预期中的通货膨胀会避免吗 ？ 美联储会停止加息吗 ？ 答案恐怕会让很多人失望 。 一场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Middle East situation on oil prices and global supply chains, highlighting the phenomenon of "two oil prices" and the potential for a more severe supply chain crisis than in 2022 due to geopolitical tensions [2][5][8]. Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The disparity between Brent crude, WTI prices, and Dubai spot oil prices is attributed to the significant release of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and market manipulation [5][6]. - Dubai spot oil prices have surged past $150 per barrel, while WTI remains at $95, indicating a critical supply pressure and the influence of U.S. policies on global oil pricing [5][8]. - The U.S. is no longer reliant on Middle Eastern oil, allowing Asian markets to reflect true market prices, which could lead to economic disruptions in Asia due to high energy costs [8][10]. Group 2: Supply Chain Concerns - The ongoing threats in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global supply chain crisis worse than that of 2022, affecting countries like China, Japan, and South Korea, which heavily rely on oil imports [8][9]. - The energy crisis is already impacting production lines in Asia, with countries like South Korea and Taiwan facing critical shortages in energy supplies [9][10]. - The potential disruption in oil and gas supplies could have cascading effects on various industries, particularly in chip manufacturing and chemical production, which are vital for modern economies [9][10][11]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Implications - The article emphasizes that the resolution of the Middle East conflict is complex and requires significant diplomatic efforts, with potential long-term impacts on regional stability and global oil markets [11][25]. - The U.S. economy may face recession risks if oil prices remain high and supply-demand imbalances persist, as rising costs could dampen consumer spending and business investment [12][15][13]. - The article notes a significant shift in Middle Eastern capital flows, with many family offices relocating to financial hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong, although current geopolitical tensions have led to a risk-averse stance among investors [22][24]. Group 4: Risk Assets and Market Trends - Two categories of risk assets are highlighted as being under pressure: crowded AI stocks and private credit, both of which are facing significant market challenges due to changing investor sentiment and structural shifts [3][19][20]. - The private credit market, heavily invested in by Middle Eastern funds, is experiencing liquidity crises as investors withdraw, which could have broader implications for the financial ecosystem [21][19]. - The article suggests that the ongoing geopolitical tensions are exacerbating the risk aversion among Middle Eastern investors, leading to a slowdown in capital flows into global markets [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of various commodities, important macro - economic and geopolitical news, financial market performance, and upcoming economic data and events. It reflects the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial situation, with geopolitical factors such as the Iran - related conflict having a significant impact on the markets. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - The main contract of US crude oil rose 0.3% to $88.39 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 0.02% to $95.94 per barrel [4][46]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.53% to $4474.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.01% to $71.44 per ounce [5][46]. - Most London base metals fell. LME aluminum rose 1.45% to $3245.5 per ton, while LME lead, tin, nickel, copper, and zinc declined to varying degrees [5][46]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on March 25, 2026 [8]. - Iran will not stop the war until it gets all compensation, all economic sanctions are lifted, and it gets international legal guarantees that the US will not interfere in its affairs [8]. - The US and Israel attacked two energy infrastructure facilities in Iran [8]. - The US proposed a 15 - item conflict - ending plan to Iran, and is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [9]. - US President Trump said Iran "started rational communication" and agreed "never to have nuclear weapons" [10]. - Trump said Iran gave a "very big gift" related to oil and gas and the Strait of Hormuz [12]. - The US and regional mediators are discussing the possibility of high - level peace talks with Iran, pending Iran's response [13][14]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Japan will start releasing its national oil reserves from March 26, and also plans to release the "producer - joint reserves" in March [16]. - The EU has not announced a new schedule for the plan to completely phase out Russian oil, and removed April 15 from the latest schedule [16]. Metal Futures - The Turkish central bank is discussing a "gold - for - foreign exchange" swap transaction through the London market, considering using its $135 billion gold reserves to support the lira [18]. - In February 2026, the installed capacity of new - energy vehicle power batteries was 27.3GWh, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2%. The cumulative year - on - year increase from January to February was 37.4%. The average power per new - energy vehicle from January to February was 62.0kWh, a year - on - year increase of 29.2% [18]. - India extended the tariff quota authorization for gold imports under the India - UAE trade agreement until June 30, 2026 [20]. - In January 2026, the global lead market supply surplus narrowed to 9700 tons, and the global zinc market changed from a shortage of 75100 tons in December 2025 to a surplus of 9200 tons [20]. Black - Series Futures - In February 2026, global crude steel production was 141.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. From January to February, it was 298.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. China's steel production in February was 76.09 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6% [22]. Agricultural Product Futures - In February 2026, the slaughter volume of designated pig - slaughtering enterprises was 31.77 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 27.9% but a year - on - year increase of 40.7%. The cumulative slaughter volume from January to February was 75.81 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 21.9% [24]. - Starting from March 25, 2026, the minimum opening order volume for the apple futures 2605 contract is adjusted to 2 lots [25]. - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture is actively solving soybean export quarantine issues. The market's concern about imported soybean supply has subsided. The soybean crushing rate of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to drop to about 550,000 tons at the end of the month, a year - on - year decrease of about 100,000 tons [25]. - The estimated palm oil export volume of Malaysia from March 1 - 20, 2026 was 889,128 tons, a 61.02% increase compared to the same period last month [27]. Financial Market Finance - A - shares rebounded strongly, with over 5100 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.78% to 3881.28 points, and the market turnover was 2.1 trillion yuan. Military stocks soared, while the oil and gas sector declined [29]. - Hong Kong stocks rebounded significantly. The Hang Seng Index rose 2.79% to 25063.71 points. Southbound funds net - sold nearly HK$27.4 billion [29]. - As of the end of February, the scale of private equity funds reached 22.6 trillion yuan, a new high. The number of private equity fund managers decreased [29]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight recommendation for Chinese stocks (A - shares and Hong Kong stocks) and believes that the Sharpe ratio from A - shares is higher in the short term [30]. - As of March 24, 224 companies have announced annual dividend plans, with a total cash dividend of 171.068 billion yuan. 27 companies have a dividend scale of over 1 billion yuan [32]. - Xiaomi Group's Q4 2025 revenue reached a record high, and its automotive business achieved annual profitability for the first time. The company plans to invest over 200 billion yuan in R & D in the next five years [32]. Industry - The National Data Bureau will promote the high - quality development of the digital economy in multiple aspects this year [33]. - The National Development and Reform Commission approved two new railway project proposals with a total investment of 68.1 billion yuan and 44.8 billion yuan respectively [34]. - State Grid will start the construction of pumped - storage power plants with a capacity of over 30 million kilowatts during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [34]. - As of March 22, Shanghai's second - hand housing transactions reached 21,443 units, and it is likely that the transaction volume in March will exceed 30,000 units [34]. - Chengdu introduced policies to boost housing consumption, including increasing the housing provident fund loan limit [34]. - The compilation of China's first "Embodied Intelligent Engineering Robot Industry Standard" has started [36]. - A new rare - earth oxide resource with an additional reserve of 9.6656 million tons was discovered in Sichuan [36]. Overseas - US President Trump claimed victory in the action against Iran, and his approval rating dropped to 36% [37]. - The US March S&P Global Composite PMI dropped to 51.4, with manufacturing and service sectors showing different trends [37]. - The eurozone March S&P Global Composite PMI dropped to 50.5, with the service sector PMI falling significantly [37]. - European Central Bank officials said they need to be vigilant against inflation due to the Iran war [38]. - Japan's February core CPI rose 1.6% year - on - year, the smallest increase since March 2022 [40]. - NASA will cancel the plan to deploy a space station in lunar orbit and build a $20 billion base on the lunar surface in the next seven years [40]. - The EU and Australia reached a comprehensive trade agreement, canceling most tariffs [41]. International Stock Markets - US stocks fell across the board. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.18%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.84% [42]. - European stocks closed mixed. The German DAX Index fell 0.07%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.23%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 0.72% [42]. - Most Asia - Pacific stocks rose. The Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.43%, the South Korean Composite Index rose 2.74%, and the Indian SENSEX30 Index rose 1.89% [43]. - Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is formulating a plan to potentially acquire Jefferies Financial Group [45]. Commodities - Oil prices rose slightly, but the increase in US API crude oil inventory put pressure on prices [46]. - Precious metal futures rose due to geopolitical uncertainty and other factors [46]. - Most London base metals fell [46]. - Iran started charging tolls for some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the number of passing ships decreased significantly [47]. - The EU postponed the proposal to permanently ban the import of Russian oil [47]. Bonds - The bond market was generally strong. The yield of the 30 - year Treasury bond "25 Super - long Special Treasury Bond 06" declined, and the 30 - year Treasury bond futures rose [49]. - The foreign official accounts' US Treasury bond holdings in the New York Fed dropped by $75 billion in the past four weeks [49]. - Moody's downgraded the debt rating of a private credit fund to "junk - grade" [49]. - US Treasury bond yields rose across the board [49]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Tuesday, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [50]. - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non - US currencies fell [50]. - The Turkish central bank is discussing a gold - for - foreign exchange swap to support the lira, and the lira has depreciated against the US dollar this year [52]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data such as Australia's February CPI, UK's February CPI, and Germany's March IFO Business Climate Index will be released [54]. - There are important events such as the release of the Japanese central bank's January monetary policy meeting minutes, speeches by central bank officials, and multiple conferences and exhibitions [56].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-25原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2605： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普周二表示，美国通过谈判结束与伊朗战争的努力取得进展，包括从德黑兰方面争 取到了一项重要让步；与此同时，多家媒体报道称，华盛顿已提交了一份15点和解提案；科威特石油公司首 席执行官表示，若美国、以色列与伊朗之间的冲突今日结束，科威特能够相对迅速地提升石油产量，预计3 至4个月即可恢复至满负荷生产；航运数据显示，沙特延布港原油出口在最新一周升至近400万桶/日，而伊 朗战争爆发前约为100万桶/日；中性 2.基差：3月24日，阿曼原油现货价为157.26美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis - The tail risk of the Iran situation should be emphasized. After the US and Israel's air strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched a large - scale counter - attack. On March 19, the Middle East conflict escalated again, and Qatar's LNG facilities were damaged. Subsequently, the situation cooled down as the US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil at sea in the coming days. The main affected varieties are crude oil, LPG, and the shipping sector, and the continuous rise in oil prices has affected the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors, and may cause concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - Global expectations of interest rate hikes are rising. The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75% on March 19. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate and removed the "rate cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept the policy unchanged, and the European Central Bank maintained the rate at 2% but has a tougher stance. The rise in oil prices and supply - chain disruptions have led to a special copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. - In China, policies are being implemented in advance, and the economic structure is divided. The government work report in 2026 aims for an economic growth of 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. China's February foreign - trade data shows high growth, and there are different trends in various economic sectors such as consumption, industry, and real estate. The central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25 [3]. Group 2: Commodity Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. The non - correlation between the non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and oil prices is worthy of attention. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 4 - billion - barrel crude oil reserve, and the US plans to release 1.72 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves. Oil price increases have a driving effect on oil - chemical products, and the EU, Russia, and South Korea have taken measures to deal with the energy crisis. The oil - seed sector in agriculture is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices, and the black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [4]. Group 3: Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [5]. Group 4: Key News - US March PMI data shows different trends in manufacturing, services, and the composite index. Pakistan's prime minister is ready to host US - Iran talks. Egypt's foreign minister has held consultations with multiple countries on the Middle East situation. Eurozone, German, and French March PMI data show different trends in manufacturing and services. China's central bank will conduct a 5000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on March 25 [7].