Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market and traditional asset management are experiencing steady growth, with significant developments in digital assets. The government plans to release a second policy declaration on digital asset development to outline future policy directions [1][2] - The Hang Seng Index has increased by over 3,800 points this year, representing a rise of approximately 20%, making it one of the top performers among major global indices. The average daily trading volume in the stock market has increased by about 120% year-on-year, reaching HKD 242 billion [1] - As of March this year, the number of registered funds in Hong Kong reached 976, with a net inflow of over USD 44 billion, marking a growth of 285%. Hong Kong is expected to become the largest cross-border asset management center globally within the next two to three years [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong has made significant progress in digital finance, green finance, and the offshore RMB market. Since the first policy declaration on digital asset market development at the end of 2022, the market has accelerated, with 10 virtual asset trading platforms licensed and 8 more applications being processed [2] - The government plans to introduce specific measures to better integrate traditional financial services with technological innovations in the digital asset sector, enhancing the safety and flexibility of digital assets in real economic activities [2] - The recently passed Stablecoin Ordinance will establish a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers, effective from August 1. The global stablecoin market is estimated to be around USD 240 billion, with over USD 20 trillion in trading volume last year, indicating a growing demand for stablecoins [2]

Group 1 - The global financial market experienced significant turmoil due to Iran launching over 150 missiles towards Israel, causing widespread panic and sell-offs [1][3] - European stock markets saw a sharp decline, with the German DAX index dropping significantly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 700 points, equivalent to the GDP of a medium-sized city [3] - The U.S. stock market faced a massive outflow, with $9.8 billion redeemed from stock funds in a single week, marking the highest level of redemptions in 11 weeks [3] Group 2 - The Middle East is crucial for global energy supply, with Iran being the third-largest oil producer in OPEC; tensions in the region led to a 10% spike in international oil prices, pushing WTI crude oil above $77 per barrel [3] - The potential for a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30% of the world's seaborne oil passes, could drive oil prices to $120 per barrel, posing a severe risk to the global economy [3] Group 3 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that Trump's tariff policies could push U.S. inflation towards 3%, while the Federal Reserve may need to maintain its current stance due to rising inflation pressures [4] - The U.S. economy is facing recession risks, creating a precarious situation for the Federal Reserve as it navigates between inflation control and economic stability [4] Group 4 - The market has entered a "risk-averse" phase, with gold prices rising to $3,450 per ounce, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [5] - The IMF has warned of increased global financial stability risks, highlighting issues such as high leverage in hedge funds and sovereign debt problems, particularly with U.S. national debt reaching 123% of GDP [5]

Core Viewpoint - International funds are increasingly viewing Hong Kong as a safe haven due to waning confidence in US dollar bonds, leading to a decrease in overnight interbank lending rates and a stable peg of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Trends - The global south now accounts for 40% of global GDP and contributes 80% to world economic growth, with mechanisms like the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS promoting mutual cooperation [1] - Geopolitical shifts are leading to a fragmentation of capital, technology, and talent flows, as well as a regionalization of supply chains and trade systems [1][2] Group 2: Technological and Green Transformation - The competition between the US's high-investment, high-energy model and China's efficient innovation model, represented by DeepSeek, is expected to intensify [2] - The global demand for green transformation funding is projected to be substantial, fostering the development of green technology products and solutions [2] Group 3: Hong Kong's Positioning - Hong Kong's advantages under "One Country, Two Systems" include its status as a free port, common law system, and a currency with a fixed exchange rate, which are increasingly relevant in the current global context [2] - The city aims to enhance its traditional industries while exploring new sectors, particularly in finance, trade, and innovation technology [3] Group 4: Financial Sector Developments - Recent financial data indicates growing confidence from international investors in Hong Kong's capital markets, with efforts to attract more mainland enterprises for fundraising [3] - Hong Kong is actively developing its offshore RMB center to increase liquidity and create more RMB-denominated investment products [3][4] Group 5: Innovation and Talent - Hong Kong is investing heavily in innovation, particularly in AI and biotechnology, and is fostering collaboration across the Greater Bay Area [5] - The city has attracted over 210,000 talents since the end of 2022, enhancing its appeal as a hub for high-end talent [5]

Group 1 - The current investment environment is characterized by significant uncertainty, driven by unpredictable large-scale tariff plans from the U.S. and rising inflation, alongside severe policy divergence among major global central banks [1] - The U.S. stock market is highly concentrated, with a few large-cap companies significantly contributing to excess returns; for instance, the S&P 500 index is projected to return 25% in 2024, but this drops to 20% when excluding Nvidia, and further to 12% when excluding the top seven stocks [1] - The fixed income market faces challenges as investors seek alternatives to equities; the private credit sector, particularly direct lending, has seen "dry powder" reach near historical highs, indicating potential future return reductions due to an oversupply of capital [1] Group 2 - Investors should consider fixed income investments that focus on total returns rather than just yield, utilizing active management strategies that allow for flexible allocation across regions and sectors in a highly differentiated policy environment [2] - Active fixed income fund managers possess deep market insights, which are crucial in the current uncertain economic and geopolitical landscape, enabling them to analyze macroeconomic trends, interest rate movements, and the financial health of specific companies or sectors [2] - These managers are adept at technical analysis, allowing them to identify real-time opportunities from market mismatches, thereby potentially reducing portfolio volatility and capturing risk-adjusted returns in the broader fixed income market [3] Group 3 - There are opportunities in inefficient and often overlooked non-core market segments, such as convertible bonds and AT1 securities, which may be missed by fund managers focused on single industries [3] - In a volatile market environment, characterized by rapid changes due to social media or sudden policy shifts, experience, diversification, and adaptability are essential for capturing subtle market discrepancies [3] - Seeking return-oriented fixed income assets managed by flexible and adaptive fund managers may help mitigate risks associated with current uncertainties while uncovering opportunities created by such uncertainties [3]

早盘速递 2025/6/12 热点资讯 1.欧洲央行行长拉加德在演讲中表示，强制性贸易政策不是解决当今贸易紧张局势的可持续办法。保护主义在缓解失衡问题 时，并非解决根源问题，而是在侵蚀全球繁荣的基础。随着各国如今通过全球供应链深度融合——但地缘政治上不再像过去那 样结盟——这种风险比以往任何时候都更大。 2. 据纽约邮报报道，特朗普表示，他对伊朗会同意在与美国修订后的核协议中终止所有铀浓缩活动失去了希望，但仍决心不 让伊朗获得核武器。当被问及是否认为自己能让伊朗同意关闭其核项目时，特朗普称："我不知道。我之前是这么认为的，但 现在我越来越没信心了。 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.57% 贵金属, 30.02% 油脂油料, 11.65% 软商品, 2.74% 有色, 20.08% 煤焦钢矿, 13.48% 能源, 2.43% 化工, 12.91% 谷物, 1.48% 农副产品, 2.64% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,0 ...

韩国5月外国对本国债券的净投资增加11.34万亿韩元，而4月为增加11.26万亿韩元；5月外国对韩国股市 的净投资为增加2.01万亿韩元，而4月份为减少13.59万亿韩元。 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/12 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/11 | 4.422 | 4.551 | 3.225 | 2.534 | 3.445 | 3.117 | 0.264 | 3.243 | | 最新变化 | -0.050 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.020 | -0.003 | 0.030 | | 一周变化 | 0.066 | -0.054 | 0.021 | 0.008 | -0.046 | 0.001 | 0.053 | -0.008 | | 一月变化 | -0.045 | -0.118 | -0.128 | -0.144 | -0.252 | -0.180 | -0.099 | -0.205 | | 一年变化 | ...

李成钢在中美经贸磋商机制首次会议结束后告诉中外媒体记者，过去两天，中美双方团队的沟通是"非常专 业、理性、深入、坦诚的"。 中概股大幅高开。 当地时间6月11日，美股三大指数集体小幅高开。中概股大幅高开，纳斯达克中国金龙指数开盘涨1.1%，盘初 涨幅一度扩大至1.5%以上，随后有所收窄，目前涨幅约0.5%。 消息面上，当地时间6月9日至10日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长 贝森特及商务部长卢特尼克、贸易代表格里尔在英国伦敦举行中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。双方进行了坦诚、 深入的对话，就各自关心的经贸议题深入交换意见，就落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会 谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 据新华社消息，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢10日晚在英国伦敦说，过去两天，中美双方团队 进行了深入交流，就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。 点击关键字可查看 潜望系列深度报道丨 股事会专栏 丨 投资小红书 丨 e公司调查 丨 时报会客厅 丨 十大明星私募访谈 丨 马斯克突然发声：后悔了！特斯拉股价大涨 丨 刚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sentiment surrounding U.S. small-cap stocks is extremely low, which may create an opportunity for a significant rebound, according to Julian Emanuel from Evercore ISI [1][2]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Small-cap stocks have been underperforming compared to large-cap stocks for over a decade, and many on Wall Street consider them one of the least favored sectors [1]. - An internal survey by Evercore ISI indicates that the market's expectation for small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks by the end of 2025 has dropped to single-digit levels [1]. - Despite the weak performance of small-cap stocks year-to-date, Emanuel believes the current negative sentiment is a positive sign for future performance [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Small-Cap Stocks - Seasonal factors may trigger a rally, as historical data shows that small-cap stocks typically perform well in June, possibly linked to the annual adjustments of the FTSE Russell index [2]. - Small-cap stocks are currently valued lower than their long-term averages, which could support a continuation of the rally [2]. - Evercore ISI forecasts a 0.9% growth in U.S. GDP for 2025, which is expected to avoid a recession while not being strong enough to halt the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, creating a favorable environment for small-cap stocks [2]. Group 3: External Influences - Easing trade war concerns and the passage of key budget proposals by President Trump may provide additional momentum for small-cap stocks [3]. - Previous predictions by analysts, such as Tom Lee from Fundstrat, suggested a potential 40% rebound for small-cap stocks, which saw some validation in mid-2020 but ultimately did not sustain [3]. - As of now, the Russell 2000 index has declined by 3.8% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has increased by over 2%, although small-cap stocks have shown a strong start in June [3].

港股方面，近期新消费、创新药等板块带动港股风险偏好整体偏强，短期趋势或延续；从中期来看， AH股溢价当前处于较低位置，美债利率维持高位也使得港股性价比不高，这可能给港股带来中期的调 整压力。 原油方面，关税缓和或短期提振原油情绪，但全球原油需求仍可能受关税拖累，OPEC+充足闲置产能 加大供给上行风险，油价或震荡偏弱。 黄金方面，关税带来的经济政策不确定性，以及美元信用遭质疑让金价中长期利好趋势有望保持，短期 金价波动难免。 (责任编辑：叶景) 海外方面，美国5月就业数据出现一定分化，新增非农整体超预期，ADP偏弱，美国就业情况短期没有 急剧恶化的风险，但仍有所放缓。薪资环比增速出现大幅反弹，考虑到基数效应以及对等关税冲击，美 国通胀将在Q2末~Q3反弹，美联储预计按兵不动维持观望状态，市场预期首次降息在9月。 国内方面，中美关税缓和后，5月制造业PMI受出口需求拉动有所回暖，生产指数和新订单、新出口订 单指数均有所回升，印证了出口链景气度的修复；购进价格和出厂价格均有所下降，反映了需求不足和 国际油价下跌的影响。关税政策的中期前景仍有较大不确定性，预计财政政策继续发力。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周央行超预 ...