Core Viewpoint - The Russell 2000 index, which includes some of the riskiest stocks in the market, has seen a significant surge recently, with multiple Wall Street strategists believing that this rally is just beginning [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index has risen nearly 10% since the end of July, outpacing the S&P 500 index by two times [1] - Analysts predict that the Russell 2000 index could rise another 20% over the next year, while the S&P 500 index is expected to increase by 11% [1] - Despite the recent surge, the Russell 2000 index's cumulative gain in 2025 still lags behind that of the S&P 500 index [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to significantly lower the financing costs for companies within the Russell 2000 index, thereby enhancing their profit margins [1] - The recent inflation and employment data have reinforced optimistic sentiments, leading investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts soon [2] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson noted that the Fed's rate cuts could propel the bull market into its "next phase," benefiting small-cap stocks [5] - Over 60% of companies in the Russell 2000 index exceeded earnings expectations for Q2 2024, with average revenue surpassing expectations by 130 basis points [5] - Analysts from Manulife John Hancock Investments highlighted that small-cap stocks have been undervalued compared to other stock categories [5] Group 4: Valuation and Investor Sentiment - The Russell 2000 index's price-to-earnings ratio is slightly above its long-term average, but still presents a lower valuation pressure compared to large-cap stocks [6] - The options market indicates increasing investor confidence in the continued rise of small-cap stocks, with a more bullish positioning compared to the S&P 500 index [6] - Passive funds have started to flow into U.S. small-cap stocks, although there is a caution that signs of economic recovery are needed for sustained growth [6] Group 5: Strategic Recommendations - Barclays analysts recommend prioritizing investments in technology and small-cap stocks due to their strong earnings momentum, suggesting that small-cap stocks are facing significant opportunities [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on September 12, 2025, by the macro team of the research center [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bond Yields**: Yields showed various changes across different economies. For example, the US 10 - year yield on September 11, 2025, was 4.022, with a latest change of - 0.025, a one - week change of - 0.140, a one - month change of - 0.264, and a one - year change of 0.190 [3] - **2 - year Government Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year yield on September 11, 2025, was 3.540, with a latest change of 0.050, a one - week change of - 0.120, a one - month change of - 0.070, and a one - year change of - 0.370 [3] 2.2 Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The USD/Brazilian Real exchange rate on September 11, 2025, was 5.389, with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 1.06%, a one - month change of - 0.52%, and a one - year change of - 4.52% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate on September 11, 2025, was 7.119, with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of - 0.32%, a one - month change of - 0.88%, and a one - year change of - 0.04% [3] 2.3 Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index on September 11, 2025, was 6587.470, with a latest change of 0.85%, a one - week change of 1.31%, a one - month change of 1.84%, and a one - year change of 19.15% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: The Hang Seng Index on September 11, 2025, was 26086.320, with a latest change of - 0.43%, a one - week change of 4.10%, a one - month change of 2.22%, and a one - year change of 47.79% [3] 2.4 Credit Bond Indices - The US investment - grade credit bond index on September 11, 2025, was 3529.910, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of 1.28%, a one - month change of 2.09%, and a one - year change of 5.49% [3][4] 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - The closing price of the A - share index was 3875.31, with a change of 1.65% [5] 3.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.18, with a环比 change of 0.24 [5] 3.3 Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 was - 0.37, with a环比 change of 0.00 [5] 3.4 Fund Flows - The latest value of fund flows into A - shares was 1342.66, and the 5 - day average was 30.55 [5] 4. Government Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 government bond futures was 107.880, with a change of - 0.31% [6] 5. Other Stock Indices - The Malaysian index on September 11, 2025, was 1582.850, with a latest change of - 0.50%, a one - week change of 0.30% [9]

Group 1 - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, low local inflation, and relatively low public debt [1] - Emerging market stock prices are currently 65% lower than those in the US, presenting various investment opportunities across different markets and sectors [1] - Actual interest rates in emerging markets remain high, comparable to the highest levels since the financial crisis, which will be beneficial as the US enters a rate-cutting cycle [1] Group 2 - Political risk has become a dominant concern in emerging markets, especially with upcoming elections in countries like Indonesia, South Africa, Mexico, and India [2] - Developed countries are facing increasing political risks due to rising debt levels and budget constraints, with the US experiencing heightened political uncertainty [2] - Emerging market bonds appear to offer more safe-haven value compared to developed market bonds [2] Group 3 - Recent trends show that emerging market stock performance has outpaced that of the US stock market for the first time since 2017 [4] - The total debt of developing countries is projected to be about 75% of their annual economic output, significantly lower than the 125% for G7 developed countries [4] - Indonesia and Vietnam have public debt ratios of 40% and 33% respectively, which are much lower than those of certain developed countries [4] - Low inflation and ample foreign exchange reserves strengthen the fiscal prudence of emerging markets, providing central banks with the ability to manage market volatility [4] - There is a growing realization that the perception of emerging markets as inherently riskier may not be accurate [4]

Report Date - The report was published on September 11, 2025 [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 10, 2025, yields in the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.047, 4.632, 3.461 respectively. Latest changes ranged from -0.041 (US) to 0.005 (Switzerland). Weekly changes were from -0.171 (US) to -0.057 (Switzerland). Monthly changes varied from -0.188 (US) to 0.127 (France). Annual changes were from -0.309 (Italy) to 0.579 (UK) [3] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 10, 2025, yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.490, 3.936, 1.949 respectively. Latest changes were from -0.020 (US) to 0.033 (South Korea). Weekly changes, monthly changes, and annual changes also showed different trends [3] Dollar - Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On September 10, 2025, the exchange rate of the dollar against the Brazilian real was 5.409 with a latest change of -0.54%. Weekly, monthly, and annual changes also varied for different currencies [3] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On September 10, 2025, the S&P 500 was at 6532.040 with a latest change of 0.30%. Weekly, monthly, and annual changes differed among various indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ, etc. [3] Credit Bond Indices - For credit bond indices including US investment - grade, euro - area investment - grade, etc., latest changes were from 0.03% (euro - area high - yield) to 0.46% (emerging - market high - yield). Weekly, monthly, and annual changes also showed different magnitudes [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3812.22, 4445.36, 2939.59 respectively on September 10, 2025. Percentage changes were 0.13%, 0.21%, 0.37% respectively [5] Valuation - PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 13.94, 11.79, 33.18 respectively. Their环比changes were 0.04, 0.04, - 0.03 respectively [5] Risk Premium - Risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of S&P 500 was -0.37 with a环比change of 0.03, and that of German DAX was 2.47 with a环比change of 0.02 [5] Fund Flows - Latest values of fund flows for A - shares, the main board, etc. were -460.27, -445.33, etc. respectively. Their 5 - day average values also varied [5] Trading Volume - Latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 19781.23, 5355.39, etc. respectively. Their环比changes were -1404.01, -273.22, etc. respectively [5] Main Contract Basis - Basis of IF, IH, IC were -12.96, -1.79, -68.71 respectively, and their basis spreads were -0.29%, -0.06%, -0.99% respectively [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 107.725, 105.570, 107.490, 105.425 respectively. Their percentage changes were 0.00%, -0.01%, -0.08%, -0.01% respectively [6] - Money market rates of R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4592%, 1.4988%, 1.5530% respectively, and their daily changes were -3.00BP, 1.00BP, 0.00BP respectively [6]

例如，印度和越南正分别在服务业和制造业领域取得良好发展，墨西哥和巴西展现出货币政策的纪律 性，智利强大的金融体系则为其增加了稳定性。此外，部分新兴市场的通胀率已回落至新冠疫情前水 平，降息周期已经开启。比如，墨西哥今年已降息五次，印尼降息四次，波兰降息三次。 贝莱德智库提到，美联储即将实施降息，尽管其认为降息幅度有限，但这将为新兴市场央行提供更多的 货币政策宽松空间，因为跟随美联储的政策步伐可以降低本国货币贬值的风险。该机构认为，当前是锁 定匈牙利、捷克、南非、巴西、墨西哥和哥伦比亚的本币债券收益率的较好机会。 贝莱德智库发文称，今年以来新兴市场表现亮眼。固收方面，全球新兴市场债券回报率近9%，而美国 国债回报率仅为4.5%。股票方面，MSCI新兴市场指数上涨20%，远超代表发达市场的MSCI世界指数 14%的涨幅。美元走弱、经济韧性及颠覆性趋势共同驱动了新兴市场的表现。由于不同国家的表现存在 分化，因此需要进行优选布局。贝莱德智库对整体新兴市场股票持中性观点，同时挖掘具有亮点的领 域，并看好新兴市场本币债券。 美元走弱推动了今年新兴市场资产的回报增长。相关数据显示，今年美元对主要货币汇率贬值约10%， 而许 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below market expectations, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][6] - The report highlights that gold prices have surged over 37% this year, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and macroeconomic uncertainty, with spot gold breaking through $3,600 per ounce, setting a new historical record [2][9] - The report notes that the U.S. Treasury yields are on a downward trend due to weak employment data, with short-term and long-term yields both declining, indicating a market expectation of further rate cuts [4][21] Commodity Market - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,600.8 per ounce, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a rate cut [9][10] - The oil market has experienced significant downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices dropping from $64.69 per barrel to $61.87 per barrel, amid concerns of oversupply and weak demand [15][16] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased across the board, with the 1-year to 30-year yields falling between 15 to 19 basis points, reflecting market expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [21][22] - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with short-term yields adjusting more than long-term yields, influenced by market sentiment and policy expectations [23] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index has shown a slight decline, influenced by weak economic data and political uncertainties, with expectations of continued weakness in the dollar [27][28] - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, supported by expectations of a stable European Central Bank policy and moderate economic growth in the Eurozone [37][41] Equity Market - The report notes a mixed performance in global equity markets, with technology stocks benefiting from anticipated rate cuts, while concerns over global economic slowdown and corporate earnings prospects create volatility [51][52] - The Nasdaq index has outperformed due to its high concentration of technology stocks, while European indices have faced downward pressure from economic uncertainties [51][52]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury yields fell significantly as investors expect the Federal Reserve to implement larger rate cuts to support a slowing job market [1][2] - The August non-farm payroll report indicated a stagnation in the labor market for four consecutive months, with a rare downward revision of June's data showing a net decrease in jobs [1] - Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September have risen to 10.2%, compared to 0% the previous day, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut stands at 89.7% [1] Group 2 - The weak job market has reignited concerns about potential recession risks, with investors adjusting their growth and earnings expectations [2][3] - Despite initial optimism in the market, the weak data led to a reassessment of corporate earnings and economic growth prospects [3] - Short-term volatility is expected, but support from rate cuts and fiscal policies may provide upward momentum for the stock market by 2026 [2][3]

Group 1 - Gold prices fell by 0.4% to close at $3545.63, with a low of $3511.44 during the session, but saw a slight increase in the European market, hovering around $3548 [1] - The U.S. stock market saw all three major indices rise, with the Dow Jones up 350.06 points (0.77%), the Nasdaq up 209.96 points (0.98%), and the S&P 500 up 53.82 points (0.83%) [1] - The ADP employment report for August showed an increase of 54,000 jobs, below the expected 65,000, indicating a slowdown in hiring activity and supporting the view of cooling labor market demand [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 237,000, exceeding expectations and increasing by 8,000 from the previous week, further confirming the trend of labor market slowdown [3] - Traders have increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut on September 17, with a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut [3] Group 3 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to a criminal investigation into board member Lisa Cook, with warnings of unprecedented political interference from the Trump administration [4] - This interference could lead to rising inflation expectations, a depreciation of the dollar, and turmoil in global financial markets [4] Group 4 - President Trump signed an executive order to implement the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which includes adjustments to tariffs and aims to prevent double taxation on certain imports from Japan [5] - Japan is committed to increasing its procurement of U.S. rice by 75% and purchasing $8 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products annually, including corn and soybeans [7] Group 5 - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is highly anticipated, with economists predicting an addition of 75,000 jobs and a slight increase in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [7] - Average hourly earnings are expected to remain flat month-over-month, with a year-over-year growth rate slowing from 3.9% to 3.7% [7] Group 6 - Historically, September is not a strong month for U.S. stocks, with a higher probability of declines compared to gains [8] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 17 could provide clarity on interest rate changes, which significantly impact stock market liquidity [8]

Report Information - Research Team: Guanyi'an Futures Research Center Macro Team [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On September 4, 2025, yields varied widely across countries, e.g., the US was 4.162%, Japan 3.589%, and China 1.806% [2] - Recent changes showed mixed trends, with some yields rising and others falling over different time - frames (latest, one - week, one - month, one - year) [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - Yields on September 4, 2025, such as the US at 3.660%, the UK at 3.944%, and Germany at 1.961% [2] - Changes over different periods also showed a mix of increases and decreases [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On September 4, 2025, exchange rates were as follows: Brazil 5.447, South Africa zar 17.779, etc. [2] - Exchange rates had different percentage changes over various time - spans, with some appreciating and others depreciating [2] Performance of Major Economies' Stock Indices - On September 4, 2025, indices like the S&P 500 was 6502.080, the Nikkei was 42580.270, etc. [2] - Indices showed different trends in terms of daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes [2] Credit Bond Indices - Different credit bond indices (US investment - grade, Eurozone investment - grade, etc.) had varying percentage changes over different time periods [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - Closing prices on September 4, 2025: A - share was 3765.88, CSI 300 was 4365.21, etc. [4] - All indices had negative percentage changes on that day, e.g., A - share - 1.25%, CSI 300 - 2.12% [4] Valuation - PE (TTM) values and their环比 changes were provided for several indices, such as CSI 300 (13.85, - 0.16) and S&P 500 (27.06, 0.28) [4] Risk Premium - Risk premium values and their环比 changes were given for some indices, e.g., S&P 500 (- 0.47, 0.01) and Germany's DAX (2.38, - 0.01) [4] Fund Flows - Latest and 5 - day average fund flow values were negative for most segments, e.g., A - shares (- 1326.31, - 1317.62) [4] Trading Volume - Latest trading volume and环比 changes were presented for different markets, e.g., Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets (25442.57, 1801.71) [4] Basis and Spread of Main Contracts - Basis and spread percentages were provided for IF, IH, and IC contracts, e.g., IF (- 15.81, - 0.36%) [4] Treasury Futures Trading Data Futures Closing Prices and Changes - Closing prices on September 4, 2025, for T00 was 108.350, TF00 was 105.815, etc. [5] - All had positive percentage changes, e.g., T00 0.15%, TF00 0.09% [5] Money Market Interest Rates - Interest rates for R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3577%, 1.4622%, and 1.5500% respectively, with R001 having a - 10.00 BP daily change [5]

Group 1 - Asian stock markets are buoyant following weak U.S. employment data, with expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The MSCI Asia Index rises, led by Japan, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also show slight increases due to anticipated Fed actions [1] - Chinese stock markets, however, experience a decline of over 2% due to concerns over a $1.2 trillion margin financing event, prompting potential tightening of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The bond market remains favorable as traders expect two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year [3] - Global bond yields decline in response to falling U.S. Treasury yields, with non-farm payroll data being a critical indicator for future monetary policy [3] - Gold prices have seen a drop after seven consecutive days of increases, although long-term trends indicate structural support from central banks [3] Group 3 - Brent crude oil prices fall to $67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate drops below $64, with discussions of "oversupply" rather than "scarcity" emerging [5] - OPEC+ considers increasing production, which seems counterintuitive given the current market conditions, as supply growth outpaces demand absorption [5] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, complicate the oil market, with traders noting that oil continues to flow to China and India despite sanctions [6] Group 4 - The market shows a divergence: stock markets are buoyed by Fed's accommodative policies, gold receives support from central banks, while oil struggles under supply surplus pressures [6] - Liquidity remains a dominant force in the market, but its distribution is uneven across different asset classes [6]