Group 1: Major Asset Review - During the Spring Festival holiday, overseas markets experienced significant events including the escalation of the Iran geopolitical conflict, ongoing concerns regarding AI themes in the US stock market, and the release of important economic data such as CPI and GDP. Gold and the US dollar index rose, while US Treasury yields, stocks, and commodities initially declined before rebounding. Silver led the gains with a 12.44% increase, driven by the Iran situation and a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs [1][5][12] - The AI industry narrative showed divergence, with ongoing concerns about the valuation and monetization pace of US AI software, while Asian markets, particularly South Korea, reached new highs due to their core advantages in AI infrastructure [8][9] Group 2: Overseas Economic Insights - US economic data during the Spring Festival remained robust, with January core CPI and PCE inflation showing strong persistence. The Q4 2025 GDP was significantly below expectations due to government shutdown impacts, but other indicators like new housing starts and core durable goods orders exceeded forecasts, indicating overall steady growth [2][12][14] - The Q4 2025 US GDP growth rate was reported at 1.4%, well below the expected 2.8%, primarily affected by a -0.9% contribution from government spending, marking the largest drag since Q2 2020. Despite this, AI-related investments remained strong, and a rebound in government spending is anticipated to positively impact growth in Q1 2026 [14][21][26] Group 3: Overseas Political Developments - The US Supreme Court ruled that Trump's IEEPA tariffs were illegal, leading to the announcement of a new 10% global tariff under Section 122, effective February 24. Trump threatened to increase tariffs on certain economies to 15%. This legislative move may include broader fiscal measures to ensure the legality of the tariffs [3][27][30] - The ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran regarding nuclear issues have seen some progress, but key disagreements remain. Trump has set a deadline for resolution, indicating a preference for negotiation supplemented by limited military action if necessary [3][35]

2026年开年，华尔街的寒意比往年来得更加刺骨。全球软件板块迎来了一场罕见的暴跌，标普500软件 与服务指数在短短数周内跌幅超过18%，市值蒸发近万亿美元。这不是常见的周期性回调，也不是宏观 经济波动带来的短期恐慌，而是一种更深层、更结构性的焦虑——市场开始怀疑，AI Agent(智能体)正 在从根本上改写软件行业的价值分配逻辑。 与此同时，硬件层面的地震也在悄然发生。OpenAI正式发布基于Cerebras晶圆级芯片的GPT-5.3-Codex- Spark模型，这是主流头部模型公司首次实质性削弱对英伟达GPU生态的依赖。硬件多元化的信号释放 得异常清晰，曾经固若金汤的算力垄断版图出现了裂痕。 而就在这种内外交困的背景下，全球AI产业链的"心脏"——英伟达(NVDA.US)的财报即将揭晓。 这不仅仅是一次常规的业绩披露，更是一次关于"AI支出是否还能继续狂奔"的压力测试。当应用层的盈 利故事受到质疑，当硬件层的单一依赖开始松动，站在产业链最上游的英伟达，能否继续维持其高估值 的信仰？市场正在等待一个答案。 软件行业的动荡，正在动摇AI支出的根基 软件板块的暴跌，其核心焦虑并不是短期盈利的波动，而是商业模式是 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market rebounded this week, with all three major indices recording weekly gains, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, both up over 1% [2] - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is seen as a critical indicator for the sustainability of the AI boom, with Oppenheimer expecting results to exceed market expectations, although there are concerns about the difficulty of delivering surprises [4][5] - The software sector's earnings are becoming increasingly important due to the intensifying impact of AI, with BakerAvenue Wealth Management highlighting the need for companies to adapt and innovate [5] Group 2 - The market is facing uncertainty due to President Trump's announcement of a potential increase in tariffs from 10% to 15% on global goods, which may require market participants to digest this new information [3] - Upcoming economic events include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key economic indicators such as the US consumer confidence index and PPI, which could influence market sentiment [6]

本周美股整体反弹，三大指数周线均录得涨幅，其中标普500指数和指数双双累涨超1%。 周五盘中，美国最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的相关大规模关税措施缺 乏明确法律授权，提振了市场情绪。 下周周中，特朗普将发表国情咨文。先前白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特未透露，特朗普是否计划在国情 咨文演讲中，阐明对伊军事行动的目标与理由。 | | | 标的 | | --- | --- | --- | | 高一 | 盘前 | 达美乐比萨、道明尼资源 | | (2月23日) | 盘后 | Hims & Hers Health, BWX Technologies | | 周二 | 盘前 | 家得宝、NRG Energy、亚玛芬体育 | | (2月24日) | 盘后 | AMC院线、纳微半导体、惠普、第一太阳能 | | 周三 | 盘前 | Hut 8、TJX公司、Circle、劳氏 | | (2月25日) | 盘后 | 英伟达、塞富时、lonQ、新思科技、携程网 | | 周四 | 盘前 | D-Wave、Vistra Energy、百度、百济神州 | | (2月26日) | 盘后 | CoreWeave、Soun ...

Group 1 - The US stock market rebounded this week, with all three major indices recording gains, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, both up over 1% [1] - The Supreme Court's ruling against the Trump administration's large-scale tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act boosted market sentiment [1] - Trump announced plans to increase the global import tax rate from 10% to 15%, introducing new uncertainty for the market [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's upcoming earnings report is seen as a critical indicator for the sustainability of the AI boom, with expectations for results exceeding market forecasts [2] - The importance of earnings reports from the software sector has increased due to the intensifying impact of AI, with companies needing to adapt and innovate [3] - Despite weakness in tech stocks, sectors like energy, industrials, and consumer staples continue to support index performance [3] Group 3 - Key economic events next week include speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of various economic indicators, such as factory orders and consumer confidence [4] - Trump's State of the Union address is scheduled, which may provide insights into his administration's economic policies [4]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this year remains high due to structural pressures on the economy and employment [1][16] - The U.S. GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate unexpectedly declined to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, indicating potential economic risks [1][16] - The K-shaped economic divergence in the U.S. is becoming more pronounced, with middle and low-income groups facing limited consumption capacity due to high inflation and stagnant wages [1][16] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overseas markets experienced significant movements during the Spring Festival, with oil prices leading among major assets due to the Iranian situation, while software stocks faced pressure from AI concerns [2] - The U.S. stock market was buoyed by earnings expectations and a recovery in risk appetite, despite concerns over potential fiscal pressures from the ruling on tariffs [2] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events, particularly the U.S.-Iran negotiations and developments in U.S.-China relations, are influencing global risk preferences and commodity prices [7][8] - The upcoming visit of former President Trump to China is seen as a critical moment for risk management and rule reconstruction between the two largest economies [8] Group 4: Tariff Developments - The Supreme Court's ruling that tariffs imposed by Trump were illegal represents a significant setback, leading to the potential return of approximately $175 billion in tariffs, which could exacerbate U.S. fiscal pressures [11][13] - Trump's administration is responding with temporary global tariffs under Section 122, which may reduce the impact of previous tariffs [11] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Despite concerns over excessive investment in AI, the current adjustment in the AI sector is viewed as healthy, with structural opportunities still present, particularly in scarce hardware and quality model targets [5] - Gold is expected to regain its pricing value as volatility stabilizes, while oil prices may improve as supply-demand dynamics shift in the first quarter [7]

Core Insights - The article highlights that hedge funds and active stock pickers have outperformed benchmark indices due to market volatility driven by tariff fluctuations, AI disruption fears, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][7][10]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The current market is characterized by high instability and multiple factors causing disruption, including tariff uncertainties, AI-related concerns impacting software and growth sectors, and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [5][6][9]. - The S&P 500 software and services index has dropped approximately 15% since late January, erasing nearly $1 trillion in market value due to fears surrounding AI's disruptive potential [6][9]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Hedge funds employing short-term tactical strategies and active stock selection have achieved significant "alpha" returns, outperforming the S&P 500 index by nearly double in recent months [7][12]. - The Bloomberg All Hedge Index reported a nearly 3% increase in hedge fund performance, marking the best relative performance against the S&P 500 in over two years [12][16]. - Complex strategies such as risk parity and return stacking have shown superior performance compared to traditional buy-and-hold strategies, which have become less effective in the current volatile environment [5][6][11]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Bond yields, credit spreads, and the S&P 500 index have remained relatively stagnant, contrasting with the dynamic nature of short-term tactical trading favored by institutional investors [2][17]. - The market is currently not a passive investment paradise but rather a phase where tactical opportunities exist amidst liquidity and directional challenges [8][18].

阿波罗方面披露，公司私募股权业务对软件领域"零敞口"，集团整体敞口不到2%。阿波罗私募股权管理层本周在致客户信中写道，软件行业既有赢家也有 输家，但"在杠杆股权基金中，我们认为潜在回报不足以匹配其风险"。尽管如此，阿波罗股价今年仍累计下跌超14%。据彭博数据，2015年至2025年间，私 募买家累计收购超1900家软件公司，交易总额逾4400亿美元。 其他知名并购机构近期也在安抚投资者，强调自身软件敞口有限或可控。据悉，Thoma Bravo和Vista Equity Partners已与投资者会面以缓解担忧。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 过去数年，私募股权行业在"软件即服务"（SaaS）领域投入巨量资金，2021年该领域投资额创下3480亿美元的纪录。 Sambur对此反思称："我们是否陷入了群体思维，比如30%到40%的并购交易都集中在软件领域？事后看，这其实是个相当大的危险信号。当人们回顾这一 阶段时会发现，这是风险管理的失败。" 眼下，大量疫情期间完成的软件投资正接近传统私募持有周期的尾声，这些资产能否以理想价格退出成为悬念，进而可能波及私募机 ...

Core Insights - The performance of large-cap mutual funds has improved significantly as many fund managers have reduced their exposure to large technology stocks, with nearly 60% of these funds outperforming their benchmarks, the highest rate since 2007 [1][11] - The S&P 500 index has seen a reshuffling of winners and losers, with technology stocks declining over 4%, while energy and materials sectors have risen by at least 15% [1][11] - The volatility in the market is largely attributed to the potential disruption caused by artificial intelligence (AI) across various industries, leading to significant declines in software companies and other sectors [1][11] Group 1 - Many active fund managers are not necessarily anti-tech; they are reluctant to pay high premiums for crowded large-cap and software stocks, and strategies that diversify away from tech have started to yield returns [2][12] - The market breadth, which measures how many stocks are participating in the rally, has become increasingly important for fund managers, with about 66% of S&P 500 constituents currently above their 100-day moving average [5][14] - The dispersion, or the gap between the best and worst-performing stocks in the benchmark index, has widened to 41 percentage points, placing it in the 93rd percentile since 1980 [8][17] Group 2 - Since 1990, market breadth and return dispersion have been the two most important drivers of mutual fund performance [10][19] - Active funds have benefited from the dramatic rotation in the stock market, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 index reaching a record high recently [5][14] - Fund managers who have consistently reduced their exposure to technology stocks since early 2024 are seeing timely returns as the performance divergence expands, particularly in the software sector [8][17]

3. 甲骨文(ORCL.US)在其关键的 450 亿至 500 亿美元融资中取得了强劲的初步成功。 智通财经APP获悉，Wedbush重点介绍了阻止科技股下滑和人工智能"幽灵交易"带来的不利影响的十大 因素。 由Dan Ives领导的分析师团队表示："如今，'人工智能威胁到所有行业……软件行业首当其冲，被视为 头号敌人'的说法在市场上甚嚣尘上。人工智能一直是科技和软件行业，尤其是那些对未知事物感到恐 惧的人的通病。对于看涨者来说，这就像是在与幽灵搏斗，而仅今年一年，人工智能的资本支出就接近 7000亿美元……人们担心人工智能初创公司会成为科技行业的噩梦。" 分析师补充说，人工智能技术行业正处于一个不稳定的十字路口，现在是科技领军企业发挥领导作用的 时候了。 Wedbush分析师们列出了他们认为最能推动科技人工智能交易走高的十大科技新闻： 1. OpenAI完成 1000 亿美元的融资，平息了外界的喧嚣。 2. 英伟达(NVDA.US)首席执行官黄仁勋在下周的电话会议上重申人工智能芯片的巨大需求轨迹，并超 过华尔街的预期。英伟达计划于2月25日公布其第四财季业绩。 4.赛富时(CRM.US)公布的收益/业绩指引 ...