Core Viewpoint - India and the European Union (EU) are negotiating a landmark free trade agreement that could be finalized as early as January 27, marking a significant development in trade relations after 18 years of discussions [1][2]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement is expected to create a market for 2 billion people and is projected to increase bilateral trade between India and the EU to approximately $136 billion in the fiscal year 2024-2025, with India exporting around $76 billion and importing about $60 billion [2][11]. - If signed, this will be India's largest and most comprehensive free trade agreement, allowing access to the EU's 27 member states under a single framework [2][11]. - Predictions indicate that by the fiscal year 2031, the agreement could increase India's trade surplus with the EU by over $50 billion, with the EU's share of India's total exports potentially rising from 17.3% in 2025 to 22%-23% [2][11]. Tariff Changes - Currently, the EU imposes an average tariff of about 3.8% on Indian goods, with labor-intensive sectors like textiles facing tariffs around 10% [3][12]. - The agreement aims to restore market access and reduce tariffs on key export products such as clothing, pharmaceuticals, steel, and machinery, helping Indian businesses cope with increased U.S. tariffs [3][12]. Sector-Specific Impacts - India is likely to protect politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy from the agreement, while tariffs on automobiles, wine, and spirits may be reduced gradually [4][13]. - The EU's average tariff on Indian exports is approximately 9.3%, with particularly high tariffs on automobiles and chemicals [15]. Automotive Industry Focus - India plans to reduce tariffs on EU-imported cars from 110% to 40%, a significant move to open its automotive market [16]. - The reduction will be phased, with tariffs on vehicles priced over €15,000 being lowered immediately, and further reductions expected over time [16][17]. - Currently, European car manufacturers hold less than 4% of the Indian market, dominated by local brands [16]. Challenges and Disputes - Key issues remain, including the EU's focus on intellectual property protection and India's concerns over the EU's new carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which could impose additional costs on Indian exports [5][14]. - The CBAM is viewed as a potential new border tax on Indian exports, particularly affecting small and medium enterprises due to compliance costs [6][14].

Group 1 - Tencent announced a cash distribution of 1 billion yuan for the Spring Festival, with individual red envelopes reaching up to 10,000 yuan [1] - Baidu's Wenxin Assistant will also distribute 500 million yuan in cash red envelopes from January 26 to March 12, with a maximum reward of 10,000 yuan [1] - ByteDance's Doubao AI Assistant will be the exclusive AI cloud partner for the 2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala, indicating a competitive landscape among major internet companies in the AI sector [2] Group 2 - The A-share market saw all three major indices decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09% and the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices down 0.85% and 0.91%, respectively [4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 32,810 billion yuan, an increase of 1,627 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [4] - Over 3,700 stocks declined, with a median drop of 1.33% in stock price changes [4] Group 3 - The market is characterized by a stable index performance, but individual stocks are experiencing significant pressure, particularly for those who bought at high prices [5] - Large sell orders were observed in major stocks, including Zijin Mining with a sell order of 4.07 billion yuan and China Ping An with 2.05 billion yuan [5][6] - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly gold and silver, is notable, with gold prices surpassing 5,100 USD per ounce and silver prices increasing by over 7% in a single day [6] Group 4 - Fund allocation in the non-ferrous sector reached 11% in Q4 2025, up from 9.2% in Q3, indicating growing interest in this sector [6] - Other sectors with increased fund allocation include telecommunications, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, with respective increases in allocation percentages [7] - The oil sector saw significant gains, with the sector index rising by 4.6%, and major companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation experiencing over 5% increases [8] Group 5 - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a decline, with the index falling below the previous week's gains [10] - AI applications saw an overall adjustment, but some leading stocks experienced a return of funds, indicating potential resilience in this sector [11] - The liquor sector faced challenges, with Yanghe Brewery's performance falling short of expectations, while Kweichow Moutai finally saw a positive turn after a series of declines [11]

Core Insights - The article discusses a renewed interest in Venezuela's oil industry, driven by potential investments and projects aimed at revitalizing the sector after years of decline [1][2][12]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Matthew Goitia, a director at Pelorus Dock Company, outlined plans to renovate and build new shipping docks in Venezuela, with an estimated cost of $250 million to $1 billion [1][12]. - The project includes refurbishing an existing oil shipping dock, constructing a new oil dock, and converting old facilities for chemical and other product transport, with a timeline of 3 to 10 years [1][12]. - The U.S. government is pushing for a $100 billion investment to rebuild Venezuela's oil industry, creating a surge of interest among companies in Houston [2][12]. - Halliburton's CEO, Jeff Miller, indicated a strong desire to return to Venezuela, having previously exited due to U.S. sanctions [2][12]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Challenges - The energy sector in Houston is experiencing heightened enthusiasm, with many executives and entrepreneurs seeking opportunities in Venezuela's vast oil reserves [1][2][12]. - There is a divide among companies regarding their approach to entering the Venezuelan market, with some being cautious and waiting for clearer regulations, while others are eager to invest [4][15]. - The Venezuelan National Assembly has initiated a comprehensive reform of the Hydrocarbons Law, which could allow domestic and foreign companies to operate oil fields independently [5][15]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - Any U.S. company looking to enter the Venezuelan oil sector must obtain permission or sanctions waivers from the U.S. Treasury [7][17]. - Current sanctions pose significant barriers for international banks and companies wishing to operate in Venezuela, necessitating legal reforms to attract foreign investment [7][19]. - The U.S. government is under pressure to expedite actions that would facilitate investment in Venezuela's oil sector, with Chevron being the only U.S. company currently permitted to operate there [8][18]. Group 4: Projected Returns - Goitia anticipates a project return rate of at least 20% once the dock systems are fully operational, with potential for further increases if larger companies express interest in acquiring these assets [9][19]. - A new energy developer is seeking $7 million annually to restart abandoned oil wells in eastern Venezuela, projecting significant returns of $800 million from the project [9][19].

冠通期货研究报告 --原油周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年01月26日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数 据显示，美国原油库存累库幅度超预期，同时汽油库存累库幅度继续超预期，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍 位于历史最高位附近。美国能源部长赖特在世界经济论坛上呼吁将全球石油产量提高1倍以上，以满足不断增长的需求并防止能源 贫困。近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解。不过， 全球原油浮库高企，原油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA最新的1月月报上调了2026年原油供应过剩幅度。雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油 的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于全球原油供需影响不大。美国财政部23日宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措施，涉及多家与石 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - For China, the energy strategy is to clean up traditional energy and shift the development focus to non-fossil energy. It is recommended to overweight industries related to non-fossil energy substitution in China, such as non-ferrous metals and rare earths, and wait for the opportunity of coal's bottom - rebound [1]. - For the US, the energy strategy is to prioritize traditional energy and restrict the development of new energy. It is advisable to be cautiously bearish on crude oil and consider buying on dips to obtain geopolitical conflict premiums [1]. Summary by Relevant Content China's Energy Strategy Traditional Energy - **Coal**: In 2026, coal demand will peak and production will continue to decline, with a structural adjustment of the coal industry. The domestic coal consumption will remain at the peak of 4.8 - 5 billion tons during 2026 and the "14th Five - Year Plan" period. The state will control the scale of new coal - fired power plants, promote the upgrading and transformation of coal - fired power, and develop new coal chemical industry to improve coal utilization efficiency. The coal production growth rate may turn negative in 2026, and production will be concentrated in resource - rich areas [5][8]. - **Petroleum**: To reduce the dependence on oil imports (73.2% in 2025), China will encourage oil exploration and development in 2026, open up the market access for oil and gas exploration, and utilize deep - sea, deep - layer and unconventional oil and gas resources. The "14th Five - Year Plan" will continue to guide the exit of backward production capacity in the petrochemical industry to solve the over - capacity problem [10][11]. New Energy - China has introduced a series of fiscal policies to support new energy development, including tax incentives, subsidies, special funds, and financing support. With the support of the "14th Five - Year Plan", the substitution of new energy for fossil energy is sustainable. The key is to develop energy storage facilities to solve the intermittency and volatility of new energy power generation [12][14]. US Energy Strategy Traditional Energy - **Coal**: The US energy strategy prioritizes traditional energy, with a focus on expanding domestic development. The demand for coal for power generation may increase significantly due to the growth of data centers' power demand. The US government has strong policy support for the coal industry, including providing more mining land, tax incentives, etc. [18][19][23]. - **Petroleum**: The US has set a high production increase target for oil. Although shale oil production is expected to be stable in 2026, traditional oil production will continue to increase slightly. The overall oil price is expected to fluctuate widely between $50 - 60 per barrel in 2026 if geopolitical risks subside [23][24]. Restriction on New Energy and Electric Vehicles - The US restricts the development of electric vehicles and non - fossil energy. The cancellation of electric vehicle subsidies may reduce the demand and penetration rate of electric vehicles, increasing the demand for gasoline and coal - fired power. The "Great and Beautiful Act" and other policies also limit the development of non - fossil energy [26][29]. Analysis of Sino - US Energy Strategy Differences - **Objective Conditions**: The differences in Sino - US energy strategies mainly come from resource endowments. China aims for non - fossil energy substitution to achieve green development and carbon peak goals, while the US tends to increase production of fossil energy [30]. - **Import - Export Structure**: China is highly dependent on imported oil and gas, while the US is a major energy exporter. China will reduce its dependence on imported traditional energy, and the US will develop domestic oil resources [30]. - **Use of Traditional Fossil Energy**: In China, coal is used for power generation, coal chemical industry and steelmaking, while in the US, 90% of coal is used for power generation and export [32]. - **Power Grid Infrastructure**: China's power grid is state - led and unified, with advanced energy storage technology to support non - fossil energy substitution. The US power grid is market - driven, which amplifies the problems of non - fossil energy power generation [32][33]. Investment Recommendations - **Coking Coal Futures**: The transformation of coal chemical industry is expected to relieve the pressure of over - capacity of coking coal. The price is expected to bottom out in 2026Q4 - 2027. Pay attention to coking coal 202610 [34]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: The pattern of oversupply of oil may continue in 2026. With the decline of geopolitical risks, it is advisable to buy on dips [34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals ETF**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to continue to rise in 2026 due to the dual benefits of financial and industrial attributes. The Fed's expected interest rate cut and the demand from the "14th Five - Year Plan" for clean energy and power grid construction support the upward trend [35]. - **Rare Earth ETF**: Rare earths have strategic and industrial attributes, playing an important role in trade negotiations and new energy industries. It is recommended to maintain a certain degree of attention and allocation [35].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 期市综述 截止 1 月 26 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪银涨近 13% ...

【导读】黄金股狂欢！香港金管局重磅宣布，人民币业务资金安排总额度增至2000亿元 中国基金报记者 伊万 1月26日，港股全日呈现高开低走行情，最终三大指数涨跌不一，仅恒生指数收涨。截至收盘，恒生指数涨0.06%，报26765.52点；恒生科技指数跌 1.24%，报5725.99点；恒生国企指数跌0.15%，报9147.21点。 盘面上，大型科技股涨跌不一，京东涨超1%，百度、快手跌超3%，小米跌超2%，阿里巴巴跌超1%；石油股强势，中石油涨超3%；金价高涨，黄金股普 涨，中国黄金国际涨超8%；有色金属股普涨，洛阳钼业涨超6%，山东黄金、紫金矿业涨超4%。 另一方面，商业航天股持续下跌，亚太卫星跌超11%；应用软件弱势，九方智投跌超25%。 1月26日，香港金融管理局（金管局）宣布，其人民币业务资金安排的总额度将由目前的1000亿元人民币增加至2000亿元人民币，新额度将于2月2日起生 效。 黄金股狂欢 1月26日，现货黄金站上5100美元/盎司，续创历史新高。 黄金股普涨，中国黄金国际涨超8%，赤峰黄金涨超7%，山东黄金、紫金矿业、灵宝黄金涨超4%，招金矿业、紫金黄金国际涨超1%。 | 中国黄金国际 | 23 ...

受伊朗大范围动荡以及哈萨克斯坦、俄罗斯实施供应限制影响，今年以来国际油价小幅走高，周一布伦 特原油期货报每桶约66美元。不过当前油价仅较去年11月初高出1美元——彼时OPEC+宣布一季度暂停 增产，并称此举是为应对季节性需求放缓。 伊朗国内爆发示威活动，当局对抗议者实施严厉的弹压，不过目前该国石油行业尚未受到任何影响。与 此同时，委内瑞拉原油近一年来首次运往欧洲。 责任编辑：李肇孚 OPEC+代表表示，受全球原油供应过剩及地缘政治风险频发影响，该组织预计在周日召开会议时，维 持下月原油产量稳定的计划。 以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的核心成员国将召开月度视频会议，审议去年快速恢复产能后于11月首次敲 定的一项决议——今年一季度维持产量冻结状态。 四位不愿具名的代表表示，他们预计相关政策将维持不变，不过其中两人补充称，成员国间尚未就此展 开讨论。 一名代表指出，目前尚无迹象表明需要对本月成员国委内瑞拉和伊朗境内发生的动荡事件作出回应。但 另一名代表称，若出现大规模供应中断，石油输出国组织及其合作伙伴或会提高产量。 OPEC+代表表示，受全球原油供应过剩及地缘政治风险频发影响，该组织预计在周日召开会议时，维 持下月原油 ...

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 周报 原油期货：地缘风险仍在、油价偏强 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 报告导读： | 原油 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SC原油期货 | 元/桶 | 441.90 | 438.80 | 3.10 | 0.71% | 日度 | | 阿曼原油现货 | 美元/桶 | 62.63 | 62.79 | -0.16 | -0.25% | 日度 | | 布伦特原油期货 | 美元/桶 | 66.29 | 64.20 | 2.09 | 3.26% | 日度 | | WTI原油期货 | 美元/桶 | 61.29 | 59.44 | 1.85 | 3.11% | 日度 | | 美国原油产量 | 千桶/日 | 13580 | 13753 | -173 | -1.26% | 周度 | | 美国原油库存 | 千桶 | 426049 | 422477 | 3572 | 0.85% | 周度 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周一，燃料油跳空高开高走，日内最大达涨幅超5%，相关能化品一并走强。美国总统特朗普22日表 示，一支"庞大舰队"正在前往中东地区海域。美国福克斯新闻网此前报道，随着与伊朗紧张关系升级， 美国正在向中东地区增派兵力，其中包括至少一艘航空母舰，同时将在该地区部署更多的导弹防御系 统。据参考消息网援引路透社1月23日报道，一名伊朗高级官员23日说，伊朗将把任何袭击都当作"针对 我们的全面战争"对待。作为全球高硫燃料油主要出口地，中东局势升温再次引发市场供应端的担忧情 绪，燃料油价格随之大涨，短期继续关注伊朗局势进展。 基本面来看，供应方面，哈萨克斯坦部分油田由于电力分配系统出现问题后暂停生产，预计时间持续1- 2周，这将减少通过里海管道联盟的原油出口。需求方面，IEA最新月报将全球原油石油需求上调了19.4 万桶/日至93万桶/日，预计2026年全年全球原油市场过剩量约为370万桶/日，供应过剩程度略有收窄。 国内炼厂需求方面，我国1月高硫燃料油进口量预计在80万吨，同比下降28万吨。当前市场缺乏单边趋 势的强劲驱动，供应充足和高库存的现实，限制了油 ...