长城周期优选混合发起式A（021636）基金经理为陈子扬。 9月29日，招金黄金涨6.09%，截至发稿，报10.80元/股，成交2.26亿元，换手率2.35%，总市值100.33亿 元。 资料显示，招金国际黄金股份有限公司位于山东省济南市历下区解放东路25-6号山东财欣大厦9层，成 立日期1988年5月11日，上市日期1993年3月12日，公司主营业务涉及矿业开采与自有房产的出租。主营 业务收入构成为：黄金销售98.37%，其他业务1.63%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 数据显示，长城基金旗下1只基金重仓招金黄金。长城周期优选混合发起式A（021636）二季度持有股 数4.04万股，占基金净值比例为3.38%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约2.5万元。 长城周期优选混合发起式A（021636）成立日期2024年7月2日，最新规模922.67万。今年以来收益 41.74%，同类排名1644/8244；近一年收益24.33%，同类排名4891/8080；成立以来收益18.59%。 截至发稿，陈子扬累计任职时间2年48天，现任基金资产总规模1.37亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 42.03%， 任职期间最差基金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: The copper price increased with rising positions due to renewed disturbances at the mine end, but investors should be wary of overseas fluctuations. The Grasberg mine accident will lead to a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026, and it may not return to pre - accident production levels until 2027. Short - term copper prices have strong upward momentum, but downstream industries' low acceptance of high prices and the end of pre - holiday stockpiling in China may suppress the price. With the upcoming National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday in China, attention should be paid to overseas risks [3]. - Aluminum: With a macro - level easing environment and a supply - demand balance improvement in the industry, the aluminum price may oscillate and stabilize. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate remains above 95%. Although the demand in some sectors is weak, the demand for industrial profiles in photovoltaic and automotive industries is relatively resilient. Low inventory levels support the aluminum price, and it is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 21,000 - yuan mark [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - The US dollar index rebounded last week, putting pressure on the copper price. The Grasberg mine accident has led to the suspension of production at the world's second - largest copper mine. Freeport expects the mine to resume pre - accident production levels earliest in 2027, with a 35% decline in copper and gold production in 2026. In 2024, its output was 816,000 tons, accounting for 3.5% of the global output [8]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, the copper price first rose and then fell. The main contract price of Shanghai copper once reached the 83,000 - yuan mark. Short - term London copper broke through the annual high, and Shanghai copper approached the annual high, with rapidly increasing capital attention and strong upward momentum [3]. 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Rebounded Slightly at a Low Level - The copper ore processing fees showed a slight upward trend at a low level, and relevant data on copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented in the report [23]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper De - stocking Slowed Down - The de - stocking of electrolytic copper slowed down, and the report showed data on domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and overseas futures inventory [26]. 2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The report presented data on the monthly capacity utilization rate of copper downstream industries, including data on refined copper rods, copper tubes, copper rods, and copper strips [29]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, the aluminum price oscillated. Driven by the copper price during the week, it once rebounded but showed weakness. The report presented data on aluminum price trends, Shanghai - London ratio, London aluminum premium/discount, and Shanghai aluminum spot premium/discount [4][30]. 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - The report showed data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, reflecting the situation of the aluminum upstream industrial chain [38]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Stockpiling Slowed Down - The stockpiling of electrolytic aluminum slowed down, and the report presented data on overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory (LME + COMEX) and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory [42]. 3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industries - The report presented data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees (average price), and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, reflecting the situation of the aluminum downstream initial - stage industries [45]. 4. Conclusion - Copper: The Grasberg mine accident affects production, and short - term copper prices have upward momentum but are also subject to downward pressure from downstream acceptance and pre - holiday factors. Attention should be paid to overseas risks during the holiday. - Aluminum: With macro - level easing and improved supply - demand balance in the industry, the aluminum price is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with attention on the pressure at the 21,000 - yuan mark [52][53].

Macro Overview - The macro environment was relatively calm last week, with both gold and copper showing upward trends. The ongoing debate around interest rate cuts remains the main theme, with gold continuing to attract market allocation. The rise in copper prices was primarily driven by fundamental factors, particularly the announcement from Freeport regarding the investigation results and production updates from the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia, which significantly exceeded market expectations [2][6]. Precious Metals - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 1.89%, and silver increased by 6.92%. The SHFE gold contract rose by 3.07%, while the SHFE silver contract increased by 6.63%. In the industrial metals sector, COMEX copper and SHFE copper saw changes of +2.89% and +3.28%, respectively [4][24]. - The silver market experienced a significant rise due to the ongoing increase in borrowing costs, leading to potential short squeezes in the spot market. Under the current interest rate cut expectations, precious metal prices are likely to remain strong, although there are risks associated with rapid price increases and potential adverse factors [8][52]. Copper Market Analysis - The copper price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply-side events, particularly the production updates from the Grasberg mine, which indicated that there would be almost no production in Q4 this year, affecting prices significantly. The ongoing accidents in copper mines have increased supply disruptions, leading to a downward adjustment in copper concentrate growth expectations, which may elevate copper prices in the long term [6][10]. - The SHFE copper price experienced a pullback after an initial surge, influenced by domestic copper smelting capacity measures announced at a copper industry conference. Despite the price increase, downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to a price retreat. The overall demand in Q4 is expected to remain neutral, with potential support for prices if they decline significantly [10][11]. Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 483,000 ounces to 39.95 million ounces, while COMEX silver inventory rose by about 6.3 million ounces to approximately 53.034 million ounces. SHFE gold inventory increased by about 8.4 tons, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.2 tons [40][45]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 11.2 tons to 1,006 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 157 tons to 15,362 tons. The non-commercial total holdings for COMEX gold were 399,000 contracts, with a slight increase in both long and short positions [45][46].

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Index opened with a gain of 0.74%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.67%, indicating a positive market sentiment in Hong Kong's stock market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index experienced an opening increase of 0.74% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a rise of 0.67% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Movements - Zijin Mining surged over 3% [1] - New Oriental and JD Health both rose by more than 2% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details the share reduction plans of specific shareholders in Xinjiang Baodi Mining Co., Ltd, highlighting the amounts and methods of share reduction, as well as the completion status of these plans [1][2]. Summary by Sections Shareholder Holdings - As of the announcement date, Xinjiang Haiyi Equity Investment Co., Ltd holds 37,189,669 shares, accounting for 4.65% of the total share capital - Ningbo Yongfeng Enterprise Management Partnership holds 8,400,074 shares, accounting for 1.05% - Jiaxing Baoyi Enterprise Management Partnership holds 2,630,000 shares, accounting for 0.33% [1]. Reduction Plans - Xinjiang Haiyi plans to reduce up to 24,000,000 shares (3.00% of total share capital) through both centralized bidding and block trading, with specific limits on the number of shares that can be sold within certain time frames - Ningbo Yongfeng plans to reduce up to 8,000,000 shares (1.00%) through centralized bidding - Jiaxing Baoyi plans to reduce up to 400,000 shares (0.05%) through centralized bidding - The reduction period for all plans is from July 9, 2025, to October 8, 2025, with prices based on market conditions and not lower than the issuance price of 4.38 yuan per share [1]. Implementation Status - As of the announcement date, Xinjiang Haiyi reduced 7,996,400 shares (1.00%) through centralized bidding and did not execute any block trades - Ningbo Yongfeng completed its reduction of 8,000,000 shares (1.00%) through centralized bidding - Jiaxing Baoyi completed its reduction of 400,000 shares (0.05%) through centralized bidding - Xinjiang Haiyi's reduction plan was terminated early, while the plans of Ningbo Yongfeng and Jiaxing Baoyi were fully executed [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang has achieved significant economic progress over the past 70 years, with its capital market reflecting this growth, as evidenced by the total market capitalization of over 900 billion yuan for 61 listed companies as of August 2023 [1][4]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - As of August 2023, Xinjiang's 61 listed companies have a total market capitalization exceeding 900 billion yuan, with projected total revenue surpassing 300 billion yuan and net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan by mid-2025 [1]. - More than half of the listed companies in Xinjiang have announced cash dividend plans, with an expected total dividend amount exceeding 11 billion yuan [1]. - The capital market in Xinjiang is evolving, breaking regional limitations and integrating into the national market, with companies leveraging various financing tools to strengthen their core businesses [1][5]. Group 2: Historical Progression - The entry of Xinjiang companies into the capital market began in 1994 with Xin Hongxin, followed by significant listings such as Goldwind Technology in 2007 and Daqo New Energy in 2021, marking a transition to high-quality development [4][5]. - By August 2025, Xinjiang is expected to have 61 listed companies, ranking among the top in the northwest region [4]. Group 3: Quality and Performance - As of mid-2025, Xinjiang's listed companies reported total assets of approximately 34,554.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.91%, and net assets of 8,891.01 billion yuan, up 1.57% [5]. - The total operating revenue reached 3,346.51 billion yuan, with 28 companies reporting net profit growth, including 15 companies with increases exceeding 30% [5]. - Key sectors such as manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail, and finance have shown significant profit growth, with respective increases of 30.22%, 111.34%, 47.87%, and 33% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Companies like Daqo New Energy are leading the silicon material industry, optimizing production capacity in response to market conditions, while Guanghui Energy is transitioning towards green energy with a clear hydrogen energy development strategy [6][9]. - The capital market is facilitating resource integration and value enhancement in Xinjiang's energy and mineral sectors, creating a virtuous cycle of strengthening enterprises, upgrading industries, and increasing capital value [9][10]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the growth, Xinjiang's listed companies face challenges such as small overall scale and insufficient bargaining power in mergers and acquisitions [11]. - The Xinjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau plans to enhance policy guidance, encourage companies to focus on core businesses, and improve restructuring efficiency [11].

Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth stabilization policies is imminent. The cumulative growth rate of fixed asset investment for the first eight months of this year is only 0.5%, necessitating coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to promote recovery [10][11] - The expected GDP growth for the third quarter is between 4.7% and 4.9%, with a cumulative growth rate of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters. If the growth rate for the fourth quarter exceeds 4.5%, the annual target of around 5.0% can be achieved [10][11] - The report anticipates that the new policies will focus on four areas: early use of debt limits, introduction of new policy financial tools, potential interest rate cuts, and adjustments to consumption policies to stimulate demand [10][11] Fixed Income - The issuance of the Jin 25 convertible bond is set at a total scale of 2 billion yuan, with net proceeds allocated for the Zambia Lubanbi copper mine project and related operational and capital expenditures. The bond has a maturity of six years and a yield to maturity of 2.46% [20] Industry Analysis - The insurance industry showed strong growth in life insurance premiums in August, while non-auto property insurance faced short-term pressure. The valuation of insurance stocks remains low, with expected PEV ratios between 0.57 and 0.85 and PB ratios between 1.02 and 2.16 for 2025, indicating significant upside potential [7] - The report highlights that the demand for savings remains robust, and with ongoing regulatory guidance and proactive transformation by insurance companies, liability costs are expected to gradually decrease, alleviating pressure on interest margins [7] Energy Storage - The report emphasizes the rise of independent energy storage in China, with significant demand growth expected in both domestic and international markets. The ongoing shortage of energy storage cells is projected to continue until the second half of 2026, with price increases anticipated [8] - Key companies recommended for investment in the energy storage sector include CATL, Sungrow, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, among others, due to their competitive advantages and profit growth potential [8]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang has achieved significant economic progress over the past 70 years, with its capital market reflecting this growth, as evidenced by the total market capitalization of over 900 billion yuan for 61 listed companies as of August 2023 [1][3]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - As of August 2023, Xinjiang's 61 listed companies have a total market capitalization exceeding 900 billion yuan, with total revenue projected to surpass 300 billion yuan and net profit exceeding 10 billion yuan by mid-2025 [1][3]. - The number of listed companies in Xinjiang ranks among the top in the northwest region, with a notable increase in quality and efficiency, as total assets reached approximately 34,554.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.91% [4][3]. - The capital market in Xinjiang is evolving from a regional market to a national one, with companies leveraging various financing tools to strengthen their core businesses [1][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail, and financial sectors have all seen significant profit growth, with respective net profit increases of 30.22%, 111.34%, 47.87%, and 33% [4]. - Companies like Daqo New Energy have become leaders in the silicon material industry, adapting to market conditions by reducing production capacity by 70% to optimize their operations [5][6]. - Traditional energy companies, such as Guanghui Energy, are undergoing green transformations, with strategic plans for hydrogen energy and carbon capture projects [5][6]. Group 3: Mergers and Acquisitions - From 2022 to August 2023, nine listed companies in Xinjiang completed eight major asset restructurings, totaling 13.28 billion yuan [8]. - Baodi Mining is actively pursuing a significant asset transaction to acquire a majority stake in Xinjiang Congling Energy, which will enhance its resource base [8]. - The capital market is facilitating a virtuous cycle of strengthening companies, upgrading industries, and increasing capital value through mergers and acquisitions [7][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Xinjiang's capital market is expected to continue evolving, with regulatory bodies emphasizing the importance of supporting listed companies in optimizing their structures and focusing on core businesses [13]. - The region is poised for further investment in modern industrial systems, particularly in clean energy and advanced manufacturing sectors, which will contribute to high-quality economic development [11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the upcoming National Day holiday (October 1 - 8), the market has certain seasonal patterns, such as the risk of pre - holiday adjustment in the stock index and post - holiday upward movement, and pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair of the RMB exchange rate. Gold has a relatively low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and there may be opportunities in commodity sectors like coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials in the month after the holiday [1]. - The gap between strong domestic expectations and weak reality has intensified. In August, China's economic data showed signs of weakness, and external tariff pressure increased. Recently, the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies, and attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the current "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. - The outlook for US inflation is clearer. The US economic data in August shows a mixed picture, with the ISM manufacturing index in contraction, CPI rising, PPI falling, and employment data underperforming expectations, which further supports the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth. Meanwhile, the risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs [2]. - In the commodity market, the black and new energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Different commodity sectors have different fundamentals and investment opportunities [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Holiday Risk Management**: During the National Day holiday, there are 6 overseas trading days. Historically, the stock index has a risk of pre - holiday adjustment and post - holiday rise, and the RMB exchange rate has a pattern of pre - holiday depreciation and post - holiday repair. Gold has a low risk for holding positions during the holiday, and post - holiday opportunities can be found in coking coal, steel, and non - metallic building materials. Important events during the holiday include the US government's temporary spending bill, US September non - farm payroll data, and the OPEC+ meeting [1]. - **Domestic Economic Situation**: In August, China's economic data showed "slow industry, weak investment, and sluggish consumption". External tariff pressure increased, and the government has frequently mentioned pro - growth policies. Attention should be paid to post - holiday policy expectations and the possible correction of the "off - peak in peak season" expectation [1]. US Economic Situation - **Inflation and Interest Rates**: The US ISM manufacturing index in August was in contraction for the sixth consecutive month, with new orders improving and the price index falling again. The CPI rose to 2.9% year - on - year, while the PPI growth slowed. The employment data was worse than expected, supporting the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the subsequent interest rate cut cycle is expected to be smooth [2]. - **Other Economic Indicators**: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and new home sales unexpectedly soared to an annualized 800,000 units. The risk of a US government shutdown has increased, and the US has imposed additional tariffs on various imported products [2]. Commodity Market - **Black and New Energy Metal Sectors**: These sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation. The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, but the marginal supply has slightly increased recently [3]. - **Precious Metals and Agricultural Products**: Precious metals and agricultural products are related to overseas inflation expectations. Although gold experienced "selling on the fact" after the Fed's interest rate cut, it is still expected to strengthen due to the de - dollarization trend and the interest rate cut cycle. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental support and are subject to Sino - US negotiation disturbances [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Sectors**: The medium - term fundamental supply of energy is considered relatively loose, as OPEC+ plans to increase production in October. In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of products like methanol, PVC, caustic soda, and urea is worth noting [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to allocate long positions in industrial products and precious metals at low prices [4]. Macroeconomic Data - **US Economic Heat Map**: It shows various economic indicators such as GDP growth, investment, employment, inflation, consumption, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and trade from January 2024 to September 2025, reflecting the overall economic situation of the US [7]. - **European Economic Heat Map**: Presents data on GDP growth, industrial confidence, investment, employment, consumption, inflation, trade, credit, and fiscal surplus in Europe from October 2024 to September 2025 [8]. - **Chinese Economic Heat Map**: Displays China's GDP growth, trade, investment, consumption, inflation, financial, and fiscal data from September 2024 to August 2025, showing the characteristics of China's economic operation [9].

Core Points - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments have issued a plan for the non-ferrous metals industry to stabilize growth from 2025 to 2026, emphasizing resource exploration and utilization [1] Group 1: Resource Exploration and Utilization - A new round of mineral exploration strategy will be implemented, focusing on the investigation and exploration of resources such as copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and tin, aiming to achieve new exploration results [1] - The plan includes improving the competitive transfer of mining rights and ensuring a scientific and orderly allocation of these rights [1] - Support will be provided for the development of green and efficient mining technologies and equipment for low-grade, associated, and difficult-to-select resources, enhancing resource recovery rates and comprehensive utilization [1] Group 2: Recycling and Waste Utilization - The establishment of recycling bases for renewable resources in qualified regions will be supported, focusing on the comprehensive utilization of waste non-ferrous metals like waste copper and waste aluminum, as well as emerging solid waste such as used batteries and old photovoltaic components [1] - A public service platform for strategic mineral resource industry data will be developed to provide precise and efficient services for mineral resource utilization [1]