Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report reviews the six unilateral market trends of lithium carbonate futures contracts since their listing on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in July 2023, and summarizes the driving factors and main industrial contradictions at each time point. As of July 30, 2025, the lithium carbonate contract index has declined by 71.3% since listing, with a maximum decline of about 76%, and experienced four significant rebounds, three of which were around 30% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Excess Expectation Dominance & Oversold Rebound - After the withdrawal of the new - energy vehicle purchase subsidy policy at the end of 2022, the downstream of the lithium - battery industry chain actively destocked from January to April 2023, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate dropped to 170,000 yuan/ton. It rebounded in late April due to downstream restocking, then fell again from early July [4]. - From July to December 2023, the market was dominated by the expectation of oversupply of lithium resources. Global sample mines increased production by about 1.02 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2023, a 32% increase from 2022. Although global lithium - battery shipments maintained a 27% growth, supply increased more rapidly. The lithium price declined smoothly, with limited supply disturbances and rebound heights [4]. - In mid - November 2023, the lithium carbonate contract accelerated its decline. In early December, it reached the expected cost - support range of 80,000 - 100,000 yuan, then the main contract LC2401 rebounded from around 85,000 yuan to 115,000 yuan and fluctuated in the range for three months [5]. 3.2 Phased Supply - Demand Mismatch - Around the Spring Festival in 2024, low lithium prices reduced the salt factory's production enthusiasm. The domestic lithium carbonate enterprise's February开工率 was about 35%, a significant drop from 43% in January. However, lithium - battery material enterprises were approaching the production peak season, resulting in a short - term supply - demand mismatch. After the Spring Festival, lithium - battery enterprises rushed to buy lithium carbonate, and on February 21, news of environmental disturbances in Jiangxi mines boosted the price. The lithium carbonate index rebounded by about 28.4% in 10 days until March 1 [6]. 3.3 Continuous Inventory Accumulation Suppresses Price - After the rebound in 2024, the lithium carbonate price fluctuated between 110,000 - 120,000 yuan per ton from March to April. Lithium salt factories' production enthusiasm increased due to improved profits. From March, domestic lithium carbonate production increased continuously, with monthly环比增速 of 31.8%, 23.6%, and 18.2% from March to May. After the May Day holiday, downstream demand entered the off - season, and inventory reached a new high on May 9. The lithium carbonate contract entered a new decline cycle, with an index decline of about 36% from May 10 to September 6, 2024 [8][10]. 3.4 Exceeding Demand Expectation & Early Stockpiling - From October 22 to November 13, 2024, the lithium carbonate index rose about 20%. The extension of the lithium - battery material production peak season and early stockpiling by downstream enterprises were the main drivers. The new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly in September and October 2024, and lithium - battery enterprises may have rushed to export products to avoid potential US tariffs. As of November 7, 2024, the domestic lithium carbonate inventory had decreased by nearly 22,000 tons from the August peak. Some downstream enterprises stockpiled in advance, and some lithium resource enterprises lowered their production and sales targets, boosting market sentiment [13][14]. 3.5 Cost Collapse & Commodity Pessimism Resonance - From March to June 2025, the pressure on lithium salt processing profits was transmitted to the mining end, and the price of lithium concentrate dropped nearly 30% in three months. The prices of lithium ore and lithium salt declined spirally, and cost support failed. Macroeconomic expectations weakened, and the demand for lithium carbonate was affected by Trump's tariff policy, the end of the "Green New Deal," and domestic policy adjustments. From March 20 to June 23, 2025, the lithium carbonate index declined by about 21.6% [18]. 3.6 Sentiment Boost for Oversold Varieties - The lithium carbonate index rebounded on June 23, 2025, with a range increase of 34.5% until July 25, approaching the annual high. The supply - demand relationship did not reverse significantly, but the commodity market had strong repair expectations, and long - position funds dominated the market. Some commodities started to rebound in June, and events in the mining end, such as lithium mica nuclear storage in Jiangxi and mine shutdowns, boosted sentiment. The lithium carbonate contract index rose about 24% from July 14 to July 25, then declined due to increased market risk [19].

Group 1: Defu Technology - Defu Technology has acquired Luxembourg Copper Foil, positioning itself among the global leaders in high-end IT copper foil production. Luxembourg Copper Foil, established in 1960, is the only non-Japanese high-end IT copper foil manufacturer globally, with an annual production capacity of 16,800 tons. Its core products include HVLP and DTH [1] - The projected revenue for Luxembourg Copper Foil in 2024 is €134 million, with a net profit of -€370,000. In Q1 2025, the expected revenue is €45 million, with a net profit of €1.67 million, indicating a quarterly turnaround [1] - Defu Technology's total production capacity for electrolytic copper foil has increased to 191,000 tons per year, making it the global leader. The company plans to accelerate technology resource integration to enhance profitability, with a research and development investment of ¥183 million in 2024 and the addition of 17 new invention patents [1] Group 2: Yahua Group - Yahua Group is a major producer of lithium salt products, particularly battery-grade lithium hydroxide, with industry-leading production technology and equipment. The company’s product quality exceeds national standards, making it a core supplier for leading global automotive and battery manufacturers [2] - The company has established long-term agreements with key clients, including Tesla, LGES, and CATL, with top clients accounting for 90% of revenue. A significant portion of orders comes from international clients [2] - Yahua Group has diversified its lithium ore sourcing through self-controlled mines and external purchases, including the Kamativi lithium mine in Zimbabwe and the Lijiagou lithium mine in Sichuan. The company also has a civil explosives business covering over 20 provinces in China and countries like Australia, New Zealand, and Zimbabwe [2] - In 2024, Yahua Group plans to hedge against price fluctuations in lithium salt products through futures contracts for lithium carbonate, continuing to adjust its hedging strategy based on production plans and market conditions [2]

证券代码：002240 证券简称：盛新锂能 公告编号：2025-045 关于回购公司股份比例达到 1%暨回购进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 盛新锂能集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 6 月 23 日召开 第八届董事会第二十次会议，审议通过了《关于回购公司股份方案的议案》，同 意公司使用自有资金及回购专项贷款以集中竞价方式回购公司部分已发行的人 民币普通股（A 股）股票用于维护公司价值及股东权益。本次拟用于回购的资金 总额为不低于人民币 40,000 万元且不超过人民币 50,000 万元，回购价格不超过 人民币 17.75 元/股，回购股份的实施期限为自公司董事会审议通过本次回购方案 之日起三个月内。具体内容详见公司 2025 年 6 月 25 日、2025 年 6 月 28 日刊登 于《中国证券报》《证券时报》和巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）的《关于回 购公司股份方案暨取得金融机构股票回购专项贷款承诺函的公告》《回购股份报 告书》 。 根据《上市公司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易所上市公司自律监管 ...

证券代码：002240 证券简称：盛新锂能 公告编 号：2025-044 | 是否为控股股东或第一 | | | 本次解除质押的 | | 占其所持 | | 占公司 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总 | | | 质权人/ | | | | | | | | 股东名称 | | | | | | 质押开始日期 | | | 质 | | 押解除日期 | | | | | | | | | | | 大股东及其一致行动人 | | | 股份数量（股） | | 股份比例 | | 股本比 | | | | 例 | | | 申请人等 | | | | | | | | 华西证券股 | | | | | | | | | | | 厦门屯濋 | 是 | | 2,065,000 | 10.01% | 0.23% | | 2023年11月1日 | | 2025 | | 年7月30日 | | | | | | | | | | | 份有限公司 | | | | | | | | | | | 二、股东股份累计质押情况 | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

证券日报网讯7月31日晚间，盛新锂能（002240）发布公告称，截至2025年7月31日，公司已通过集中竞 价方式累计回购股份数量9，752，800股，占公司总股本的1.07%。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The main contract for lithium carbonate dropped by 4.66%, closing at 68,280 yuan/ton, amid stable overseas lithium supply and smooth progress in mining rights renewal by leading domestic company CATL [1] - Recent market fluctuations are driven by funds and sentiment rather than fundamental pricing, with trading limits imposed by exchanges reducing speculative activity [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Overseas lithium supply remains stable and abundant, with several Australian mining companies reporting sequential growth in production and sales, and spodumene spot prices recovering from approximately $600 per ton in June to around $800 [2] - CATL's management indicated that their lithium mining projects are operating normally and have submitted applications for mining rights renewal, alleviating market concerns about supply disruptions [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand shows significant differentiation, with domestic demand for ternary materials benefiting from seasonal stocking and new model launches, while orders are concentrated among leading manufacturers [3] - In the overseas market, there is a pre-stocking phenomenon due to the impending expiration of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies, while demand for lithium iron phosphate is expected to decrease, but the energy storage sector is performing relatively well due to export competition and policy incentives in Eastern Europe [3] Group 4: Inventory and Cost Structure - The lithium carbonate market faces significant inventory pressure, with total market inventory rising to a recent high of 143,000 tons, while smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 55,000 tons [4] - The flattening of the cost curve is weakening the price support from traditional high-cost production and compressing industry profit margins, which is a key driver for the downward shift in lithium carbonate price levels [4] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Institutions have differing views on the future of lithium carbonate, with some suggesting a "weak reality strong expectation" scenario, indicating marginal improvements in fundamentals but a medium-term oversupply [5] - Predictions for the second half of the year suggest a two-phase market: initial price increases due to improved macro sentiment and supply disruptions, followed by potential price declines in the fourth quarter as production ramps up [5] - The market is expected to maintain a wide fluctuation pattern, with investors advised to closely monitor inventory depletion and changes in overseas policies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has experienced significant volatility, with prices rebounding sharply after hitting a low on June 23, but subsequently declining again by the end of July, raising concerns among regulators [2][4]. Price Fluctuations - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged to 80,520 yuan/ton on July 25, marking a cumulative increase of 37.84% since June 23, before falling to 68,282 yuan/ton by July 31 [2]. - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 72,950 yuan/ton by July 30, reflecting a 21% increase from the year's low [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some lithium salt plants undergoing maintenance, overall industry production remains high, with major manufacturers maintaining stable output levels [3]. - The supply side is affected by compliance issues, particularly with Cangge Lithium Industry, which is expected to impact monthly supply by 900-1,000 tons due to regulatory non-compliance [3][8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market activity remains subdued as many companies adopt a cautious stance, leading to lower transaction volumes despite a slight recovery in purchasing intentions [4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is under pressure, with downstream companies primarily executing long-term contracts and showing reluctance to engage in high-priced purchases [4]. New Energy Vehicle Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [5]. - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 54.9% in July, indicating strong market performance, although growth rates are expected to decline in the coming months [5][6]. Regulatory and Compliance Issues - The compliance of mining licenses has become a focal point, with potential impacts on supply and market sentiment. Recent inspections in Yichun have raised concerns about the regulatory status of lithium mining operations [8][9]. - The outcome of compliance issues could significantly influence lithium prices, with expectations of a return to a supply surplus if resolved positively [9].

供应端最新动态显示，海外锂矿供给维持稳定充裕状态。多家澳矿企业近期披露的财报显示产销环比增 长，锂辉石现货价格已从6月每吨约600美元的低点回升至800美元附近。 皮尔巴拉矿业首席执行官戴尔·亨德森在财报电话会议上表示："他对市场前景'保持谨慎乐观'，强调当 前行情仍主要由'市场情绪、政策信号及投机资金'驱动，而非基于供需基本面的改善。" 周四，碳酸锂主力合约下跌4.66%，收报68280元/吨。这一剧烈调整发生在海外锂矿供给维持稳定、国 内龙头企业宁德时代采矿权续期进展顺利的背景下。 新湖期货分析指出："近期资金与情绪主导锂价行情，市场炒作情绪较浓，短期基本面定价权重较低。 交易所实施交易限额等风控措施，压制投机盘活跃度，资金切换迅速以及情绪逆转致锂价近日大 跌。"市场剧烈波动背后，是供需基本面与政策预期的复杂博弈。锂矿供应端出现哪些新变化？ 国内方面，宁德时代管理层在半年报业绩解读会上透露，其锂矿项目生产经营正常，已提交采矿权续期 申请材料，缓解了市场对供应中断的担忧。下游需求呈现何种态势？ 需求端表现呈现明显分化。三元材料方面，国内市场受益于旺季备货需求及新车型集中上市，动力市场 需求呈现一定增量，但订 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the destocking process is slow. The medium - to long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price decline - ore price loosening - further lithium salt price decline" and a stepped - up price increase chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The cost curve is flattening due to production process optimization, which drives the central price of lithium carbonate down [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro sentiment, supply disruptions, and better - than - expected off - season performance; it will fluctuate downward in Q4 as technological upgrades are completed and production increases [3]. - There are positive factors such as improved macro sentiment and supply - side disruptions, and negative factors including high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and technological upgrades delaying capacity clearance [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 and 80,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 42.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 73.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 3.29% daily and 10.95% weekly; trading volume is 521,849 lots, down 34.19% daily and 70.52% weekly; open interest is 229,368 lots, down 15.91% daily and 47.48% weekly. For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 2.81% daily and 8.53% weekly; trading volume is 378,788 lots, down 17.16% daily and up 20.72% weekly; open interest is 195,732 lots, up 5.60% daily and 33.12% weekly [8]. - **Futures Spread Data**: The LC09 - 11 spread is - 320 yuan/ton, down 1700% daily and 119% weekly; the LC11 - 12 spread is - 520 yuan/ton, up 189% daily and down 263% weekly [11]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Spot Price**: The average prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone have different degrees of daily and weekly changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan/ton, down 1.41% daily and up 5.74% weekly [15]. - **Lithium Salt Spot Price**: The average prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide also show daily and weekly fluctuations. For instance, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 69,900 yuan/ton, down 1.34% daily and up 1.45% weekly [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spread**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a 27.27% weekly increase [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and the brand - based basis quotes of different companies have specific values. For example, the basis quote of Shengxin Lithium Energy for the LC2507 contract is 100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 5,545, a decrease of 7,586 from the previous day [30]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The report shows the production profit from purchasing lithium ore, theoretical delivery profit, and import profit of lithium carbonate, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the summary requirements [33]. 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high product inventory and concerns about inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 50% of lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) to lock in profits, sell 50% of call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2].

格隆汇7月31日丨盛新锂能(002240.SZ)公布，截至2025年7月31日，公司已通过集中竞价方式回购股份 数量9,752,800股，占公司总股本的1.07%；最高成交价为16.52元/股，最低成交价为15.46元/股，支付的 总金额为1.56亿元(不含交易费用)。 ...